Dave Cokin
Wednesday Bonus Play 8:10 PM MLB
(977) MINNESOTA TWINS at (978) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take: (977) MINNESOTA TWINS +140
At the outset, let’s be clear that there’s risk here as Phil Hughes has tailed off considerably of late for the Twins. But even though his overall performances have declined, it’s important to note that he’s still not getting burned by the gopher ball, which was a true waterloo for Hughes when he was wearing pinstripes. He’s also still maintaining good control, so he isn’t beating himself with walks. In fact, while the eye test says Hughes hasn’t been sharp lately, there’s also been some lousy BABIP luck as a contributing factor.
Of course, even if I give more weight to the analytics and deem this as ill fortune, I still prefer to wait for the turnaround to occur before jumping in. But there’s a second side involved here called the Royals, and that’s where this play becomes more enticing to me.
No knocks on Danny Duffy, who has been outstanding for KC but just can’t catch a good break. Welcome to life on the Royals, who have given Duffy precious little run support all season. I don’t think there’s much question that the team knowing they haven’t produced for Duffy makes then press every time he takes the mound, thus the continuing issue with offense gets maintained and perhaps even intensifies. Duffy is the best 5-10 pitcher in the majors. But he’s still 5-10.
Aside from the starting pitchers, this is pretty close. The Twins have actually hit lefties well on the road, something they certainly haven’t done at Target. The Minnesota bullpen is acceptable, but is clearly second best here as the Royals have three pretty much shut down guys for the late innings.
Make no mistake, Kansas City deserves the favorite’s role here. But I can’t justify them liviing in that high rent -150 neighborhood. I made this number Royals -125, so it appears to me as though there’s considerable value on the underdog side. I’ll select the Twins here, and remember to check my Twitter feed during the day to see if this makes my final card.