Wednesday 7/29/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Tigers seeking first win of season behind Verlander
Stephen Campbell

Justin Verlander will be looking to collect his first win of the season versus Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays in the Sunshine State Wednesday.

Verlander (0-3, 5.57 ERA) hasn't been coming through for Tigers backers, as the club has dropped each of his seven starts since returning from injury on June 13.

Sportsbooks are presently offering the Tigers as +136 moneyline pups for the clash.

 

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Royals have had the edge on Kluber, Indians
Stephen Campbell

The Cleveland Indians are winless in Corey Kluber's last four starts against the Kansas City Royals.

Last year's Cy Young Award winner will have an opportunity to buck that trend Wednesday when the Tribe welcome the Royals to town. Jeremy Guthrie is slated to get the nod for K.C.

Cleveland is currently in the -150 ballpark at sportsbooks.

 

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Royals the most popular in futures markets
Andrew Avery

According to sportsbooks, the Kansas City Royal are the most popular ball club in World Series futures wagers (by total dollars wagered), accounting for 12 percent.

The Royals moved from 4/1 to 3/1 following the acquisition of Johnny Cueto from the Cincinnati Reds.

Here is a look at the top 10 most popular wagers in World Series futures:

Kansas City Royals - 12 percent

Washington Nationals - 10 percent

Los Angeles Dodgers - 9 percent

St. Louis Cardinals - 6 percent

San Francisco Giants - 6 percent

Seattle Mariners - 5 percent

Chicago Cubs - 5 percent

Detroit Tigers - 5 percent

Los Angeles Angels - 5 percent

Pittsburgh Pirates - 4 percent

 

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'Rubber Match'

The closing matchup of a three game series is today’s baseball betting focus as the St Louis Cardinals look to take the rubber match against Cincinnati this afternoon at Busch Stadium. St Louis Cardinals will start John Lackey, which does not spell good things for Cincinnati. Lackey has not allowed more than two runs in any of his July starts, and he'll again be pitching at home, where he has a 1.97 ERA in 11 starts with Cardinals 9-2 in those games. Adding to those numbers, the Cards are 15-2 in Lackey's 17 home starts dating back to last season which includes 2-0 facing Reds.

A higher price on a game is cause to ratchet up the tension for a sports handicapper. However, in this case, the numbers add up well enough to conclude Cardinals are the best choice. Keep in mind, St Louis has owned the series at home winning 11 of 14 vs Reds. Additionally, Cincinnati doesn't put up much of a fight when they are road underdogs, at just 11-24 this season and poor bets after a shutout win going 1-4 outscored by 4.2 runs/game.

 

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Streaks, Tips, Notes

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins July 29, 7:10 EST

In the wake of Tuesday's 4-1 loss to Jose Fernandez and the Miami Marlins, the Washington Nationals' skid has reached 1-4 on this road swing and 0-4 this season in Miami's back yard. Doug Fister trading pitches with Tom Koehler Wednesday those ugly National trends may be extended. Fister struggles on the road (1-4, 546 ERA), Koehler has sparkled in the friendly confines of Marlins Park (4-1, 1.68 ERA) including 7 1/3 innings of shutout ball vs Nationals.

Marlins have been given the nod opening -$1.10 to -$1.15 home favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, July 29, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Very interesting but also somewhat puzzling trade late on Monday night as Colorado sent franchise icon and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki along with veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins to Toronto for shortstop Jose Reyes and three young pitchers. Now, is Tulowitzki a better player than Reyes? He is, but the Blue Jays already had the best offense in the majors and badly need to add a starting pitcher. Obviously, this doesn't help there. Plus, Tulowitzki, 30, is still owed $113.7 million through 2020, and his numbers no doubt have been inflated some playing half his games at Coors Field. Still, that Toronto offense is just scary good now. I have no idea why the Rockies would even want the injury-prone 32-year-old Reyes unless they are planning to flip him. He's still owed another $48 million after this season. Toronto is now +1200 to win the AL pennant. This deal means nothing for Colorado this season. It's full-on rebuild now.


Rockies at Cubs (-245, TBA)

This will have live betting at sportsbooks as the matinee is televised on the MLB Network. Presumably Reyes debuts here if he doesn't on Tuesday. The Mets already have said they aren't interested in a trade to bring him back. By the way, I fully expect the Rockies to trade outfielder Carlos Gonzalez now. He has been raking this month. Colorado starts young right-hander Eddie Butler (3-6, 4.77) here. He returned to the majors and had a quality start last time out, allowing three runs over six innings against the Reds. He has never faced the Cubs. Chicago lefty Jon Lester (5-8, 3.32) pitched well last time out, allowing just two runs over seven innings against the Phillies, but got a no-decision. He has a 1.53 ERA this month. Gonzalez is 1-for-6 off Lester with a strikeout.

Key trends: The Rockies are 0-5 in Butler's past five vs. teams with a winning record. The Cubs are 0-4 in Lester's past four at home. The "over/under" has gone under in six of his past seven pitching on four days of rest.

Early lean: Bet against the Rockies for at least the rest of this week. The players on that team aren't happy Tulo was dealt. Plus, now some other guys are looking over their shoulders.


Phillies at Blue Jays (-226, 9.5)

Tulowitzki is batting .300 with 12 home runs and 53 RBIs over 87 games in 2015. If he doesn't make it to Toronto to debut on Tuesday, he should here. Over the past nine seasons, Tulowitzki ranks first as a shortstop in OPS (.893), home runs (186), RBIs (650), and wins above replacement (40.0). He's also a better defender than Reyes is. He would face Phillies starter Jerome Williams (3-7, 6.28), who has been one of the worst in the majors. Williams did have a quality start last time out, but it was his first since May 26. Toronto's Josh Donaldson is 7-for-23 with three doubles off him. Tulo is 1-for-3 with two RBIs. It's R.A. Dickey (4-10, 4.53) for Toronto. His numbers don't look great, but Dickey has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his previous 10 starts. Carlos Ruiz is 6-for-19 with a double off him.

Key trends: The Phillies are 1-7 in Williams' past eight on the road. The Jays are 1-5 in Dickey's past six. The over is 5-2 in Dickey's past seven on Wednesday.

Early lean: Blue Jays and over. I'll be going over many Blue Jays games going forward.


Nationals at Marlins (-103, 7.5)

Tuesday was set to be a big day for Washington as first baseman Ryan Zimmerman and outfielder Jayson Werth were both set to be activated off the disabled list. The Nats were looking at possibly trading for Tyler Clippard of the A's to bolster their bullpen -- Clippard was with Washington last season -- but he was sent to the Mets on Monday. Washington will do something in the bullpen. Aroldis Chapman? Doug Fister (3-6, 4.50) goes here for the Nats. They have lost his past four. Fister hasn't faced the Marlins in 2015. Dee Gordon is 1-for-3 off him. Miami was set to activate the All-Star second baseman off the DL as well on Tuesday. It's Tom Koehler (8-6, 3.16) for the Marlins. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his past six starts. Koehler is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in two starts this year vs. Washington. Werth is 4-for-13 with two homers off him. Zimmerman is 5-for-14 with a dinger.

Key trends: The Nats are 1-5 in Fister's past six on the road. The Marlins are 0-6 in Koehler's past six on Wednesday. The under is 5-2 in Fister's past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in Koehler's past five vs. Washington.

Early lean: Marlins and under.


Padres at Mets (-115, 7)

Quite possibly the final start for Tyson Ross in a Padres uniform as reports are the Cubs are in heavy talks to land Ross -- possibly in a package where Chicago would send shortstop Starlin Castro to San Diego. Ross (6-8, 3.45) isn't an ace but a good No. 3-type starter. Guy hasn't allowed a homer in his past 16 starts, which is a franchise record. Ross hasn't faced the Mets this season. Curtis Granderson is 4-for-10 with a homer off him. New York's Bartolo Colon (9-9, 4.60) hasn't won since June 12. He deserved a win last time out, however, allowing just a run and five hits over eight innings against the Dodgers. It's his first start of the year vs. San Diego. Melvin Upton is a career .303 hitter off him with a homer.

Key trends: The Padres are 2-6 in Ross' past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 6-1 in Colon's past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 8-0 in Ross' past eight on Wednesday. The under is 5-1 in Colon's past six.

Early lean: Padres and under.


Angels at Astros (-103, 8)

This also will have live betting with it the ESPN Wednesday night game. The Halos made a minor trade for outfield depth on Monday in landing Shane Victorino from Boston. Angels left fielders have been about the worst in the majors offensively this season, so maybe Victorino helps. And he has been good in his postseason career. Garrett Richards (10-7, 3.25) is on the mound for Los Angeles. Richards is 1-1 with a 3.09 ERA in two starts this year vs. Houston. Jose Altuve is a career .320 hitter off him. It's rookie right-hander Lance McCullers (4-3, 2.60) for the Astros. He pitched in Anaheim on June 25 and allowed a run and four hits over six innings.

Key trends: The Angels are 9-2 in Richards' past 11 on five days of rest. Houston is 4-0 in McCullers' past four at home. The over is 5-1 in Richards' past six on the road. The under is 5-0 in Richards' past five vs. Houston.

Early lean: Angels and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

-- St John's-Vandy, UNLV-UCLA are two opening round games in Maui Classic in November; Wake Forest-Indiana-Kansas are also in this solid tournament.

-- How much will Tom Brady play in preseason? New England exhibition games will be interesting, as far as which QBs play how much.

-- Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones had hip replacement surgery, will be at training camp for the start of another football season. We hope he is feeling better.

-- Cole Hamels can be traded to nine teams without his consent: both NYC teams, Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Nationals and Rangers.

-- Troy Tulowitzki would have become a 10-nd-5 man next year, so he could have vetoed trades at that point, which is why he got traded this year.

-- Sonny Gray blanked the Dodgers 2-0 last night; he is very, very good.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services

7/29/2015: Wednesday Bonus Play:

Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, July 29 is on 906. Miami Marlins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

NATIONALS (Fister) @ MARLINS (Koehler) 7:10 PM

Take: MARLINS -110

Welcome back, Dee Gordon. The speedy Miami catalyst returned from his stint on the disabled list and had an immediate impact as the Marlins captured the series opener against the Nationals.

Doug Fister will try and get Washington even in the set tonight, but things have not been going well for the veteran righty. Fister has had a rough time of it, with just three starts all season where he’s posted an xFIP of less than 4.00. Fister was never a big heat guy, but the lack of velocity this season has been a problem and that’s led to a big problem generating swings and misses. There are red flags galore for Fister. His ground ball rate is the lowest of his career. The line drive and hard hit percentages are the worst of his big league life. About the only positive for the glass half full crowd is that Fister threw it a little better in his last start, and the Nats are hoping that the worst is behind him.

Tom Koehler hasn’t been as good as his nifty ERA might indicate, but he’s been better than I think most expected. I actually thought Koehler might end up getting traded as he’s not a bad back of the rotation fit for a handful of contenders, and he doesn’t get paid much by major league standards. But I guess that makes him valuable to the Marlins as well, and as of now, he appears likely to stay put.

Miami gets a check mark on the pitching tonight. It’s by no means a slam dunk in any of the categories I focus on as far as pitcher comparison goes. But Koehler owns at least a minimal advantage over Fister right across the board.

The Nats have to be thrilled to have Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth all back on the field after missing extended time with injuries. This lineup should start to produce some offense moving forward, but for the time being, there could be a little rust for any or all of this talented trio.

The Marlins are still minus their big bat with Giancarlo Stanton still sidelined. But getting Dee Gordon back paid immediate dividends on Tuesday and Gordon looks like he’s ready to resume his everyday role at the leadoff spot for the Marlins.

I’m clearly hoping Miami gets to Fister for at least a few runs here. The bullpen advantage is with the road team, so it’s likely incumbent upon the home team to win the early portion of this game. I do think the price matters here, as I really don’t want to spot more than the current handful of pennies with Miami. But assuming it’s the regular starting lineup (sans Stanton, of course) I’ll opt for Miami to get enough work done against Fister to get them to the winner’s circle for a second straight night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play WED Pirates w/Lirano -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros

Bonus Play Los Angeles Angels

In this battle for first place in the American League West Division, I want Garrett Richards going for me against rookie Lance McCullers especially taking a price.
The Angels are 23-10 (69%) in Richards' last 33 starts. Richards is an ace and matches up well to the homer-or-bust Astros because he keeps the ball on the ground.
McCullers has cooled off since a fast start. This will be his 13th big league start and opponents are now getting a better feel on him as he goes through the league a second time around. The Angels faced McCullers for the first time last month.
McCullers' ERA in his last three starts is 3.94.
Despite losing to the Astros on Tuesday night, the Angels still are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They played last night minus Mike Trout, arguably the best player in baseball. Trout was held out with a wrist injury, but he's expected to play today after an MRI taken on his wrist showed just mild inflammation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Coach Fletcher’s

MLB Wednesday Scouting Edge

9:10 am Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians

Rejuvenated Royals Take on Cy Young Winner Kluber

Last year’s Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, is not having a Cy Young type 2015. Kluber is 5-11, that’s his record not his height. He has an era of 3.59. In his last start, Kluber gave up 6 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings against the Chicago White Sox. In his previous start versus Cincinnati, Kluber went 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs on 7 hits. Kluber has faced the Royals 3 times this year and the results have not been good. On May 7 Kluber lasted 5 3/3 innings giving up 5 runs and 7 hits. Coming back to face the Royals again on June 3, Kluber went 8 innings and gave up 4 runs on 9 hits. In his 1st start against the Royals this season Kluber tossed 6 1/3 innings giving up 6 runs, 4 of them earned, and allowed 10 hits. Kluber did manage to fan 21 Royals in the three losses. Despite his inability to beat the Royals, Kluber opened as a -160 favorite.

10:10 am Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins

Pitcher’s Duel Deluxe When Pirates Face Twins

Francisco Liriano versus Ervin Santana may seem like an obvious under. After all, Santana has decimated opposing batters in the second half of the season. Sitting at 2-0 with a 2.60 era, Santana has tossed 15 2/3 innings without allowing a run in the second half. In his last start he went 8 innings against his former team, the Angels, and shut them out. Francisco Liriano isn’t doing real bad, either. He’s 6-6 on the year with a 2.91 era. But before you run to the windows with fistfuls of cash, note this. In Liriano’s last start against the Twins, he only made it through 2 innings and gave up 7 runs on 5 hits, including 2 bombs. Of course that was in May. And you should also realize that Ervin Santa’s era at home this year is 13.50!

11:20 am Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

Cubs Finally Scored Some Runs!

After being humiliated in a 3 game series at home by the pitiful Phillies, the Cubs came to Coors Field and scored 9 runs in Monday’s game versus the Rockies. Tuesday the Cubs tried to keep their feeble hopes for a playoff alive by starting Dallas Beeler against the Rockies. That didn’t work out too well for them as the Rockies pounded out a 7-2 win in Chicago. On Wednesday, the Cubs will send out Jon Lester against Eddie Butler. The opening line of Cubs -260 would make you think that this game was all but over. That might be so. Butler is 3-6 with a 4.77 era. Lester is 5-8 with a 3.32 era. When was the last time you saw a 5-8 pitcher as a -260 favorite? Lester has a 3,38 era at home and is 2.53 in his last 3. But don’t get fooled by this one. Lester has an 0.77 era versus the Cubs. But those starts came in 2007 and 2010.

5:05 pm New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

Tanaka Tries to Go On 4 Days Rest Against Rangers

Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t pitched on 4 days rest since he strained his right forearm on April 23. He’ll give it a go today against the Rangers and Colby Lewis. Tanaka is 7-3 with a 3.64 era. Tanaka has won his last 3 starts against Oakland, Seattle and Baltimore. He went 22 1/3 innings and allowed just 7 earned runs on 12 hits. More disturbing is the fact that Tanaka gave up 5 round trippers in his last 3 starts. Lewis may be called Lucky Lewis for now as he is 10-4 despite a 4.49 era. He’s 6-1 with a 4.30 era in his last 10 starts. Lewis is 3-1 with a 4.95 era at home and is 2-1 with a 4.50 era against the NYY in 3 starts.

7:10 pm Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw Takes 29 Inning Scoreless Streak to the Mound

If you’re looking for a heavy favorite, I may have found one for you. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw will be laying an opening line of -300 into tonite’s game. It’s true that Kershaw started off in a very ‘un-Kershaw like ‘ fashion. After all he is 8-6 and sports an era of 2.51. Lately though, he’s been back to the normal Kershaw. He’s dusted off the Phils, Nationals and Mets in that order without allowing an earned run. In those 26 innings he has given up 14 hits and fanned 38. He is 0-0 lifetime versus the A’s with a 0.66 era, But those starts came in 2009 and 2012. If you’re looking for a reason to bet against him, Sam Fuld is hitting 1.000 against Kershaw (1-1).

Bonus Play – San Francisco Giants -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Angels at Astros

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-117, 7.5)

The Los Angeles Angels hope to have reigning American League MVP Mike Trout back in the lineup Wednesday when they visit the Houston Astros in the middle contest of their key three-game series. Trout, who leads the major leagues with 31 home runs and is hitting .315 with 64 RBIs, injured his wrist while trying to make a diving catch Sunday and did not play Tuesday, when Houston prevailed 10-5 to move into a virtual tie with Los Angeles atop the AL West.

“Don’t anticipate anything, but we’ll wait for the results,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia told reporters about Trout’s MRI, which was taken Tuesday. “It looks like it’s moving in the right direction. He finished (Sunday’s) game fine. Hit a grand slam after it actually … it was a little stiff yesterday, feels better today, but just not quite where it needs to be.” Houston is 7-3 since the All-Star break and is riding red-hot Jose Altuve, who is batting .405 during that span and is 10-for-23 in his last five games after going 3-for-5 with a career-high five RBIs on Tuesday. Rookie shortstop Carlos Correa is also swinging a hot bat as he is hitting .394 with two home runs and nine RBIs since the break for the Astros, who have won five straight at home and 10 of their last 11 at Minute Maid Park. Los Angeles’ Garrett Richards is 1-1 in two starts against Houston this season and opposes Lance McCullers, who is winless in his last three turns.

TV: 8:10 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN West (Los Angeles), ROOT (Houston)

LINE HISTORY: The Astros opened -113 but now sit -117. The total opened at 7.5.

INJURY REPORT: Angels – CF Mike Trout (Questionable, wrist).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Houston struck first as the major deadline trading season got underway, as it acquired LHP Scott Kazmir from the A’s for minor leaguers Daniel Mengden (RHP) and Jacob Nottingham (C). The ‘Stros are still stacked with prospects, so don’t expect this to be their last deadline deal. The Angels experienced their first home rainout in 20 years. Fortunately, it’s raining runs as well, as the Halos stayed hot vs two of their favorite opponents, Boston and Minny, plating 30 runs in a four-game stretch.” Big Al McMordie.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels RH Garrett Richards (10-7, 3.25 ERA) vs. Astros RH Lance McCullers (4-3, 2.60)

Richards allowed three runs, four hits and three walks in eight innings of a 3-0 loss to Minnesota on Thursday – the fourth time in the last five starts he’s pitched at least 7 2/3 innings. The 27-year-old California native is 4-5 with a 4.73 ERA in nine road outings, including a 4-3 loss in Houston on April 18 in his first start of the season when he permitted four runs (three earned), five hits and four walks in five innings. Richards is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 11 games (eight starts) versus the Astros.

McCullers received a no-decision after yielding two runs, six hits and three walks in five innings of a 5-4 victory over Boston on Thursday. The 21-year-old Floridian, who has a .209 batting average against, is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 35 innings over six home starts this season. McCullers picked up a no-decision in his only appearance against Los Angeles – a 2-1 loss at Angel Stadium on June 24 when he allowed one run, four hits and struck out six in six innings.

TRENDS:

* Angels are 1-6 in the last seven meetings in Houston.
* Angels are 1-4 in their last five overall.
* Astros are 6-1 in their last seven games as a favorite.
* Under is 8-2 in Astros last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent are backing the Astros.