Dave Cokin
Wednesday Bonus Play 1:10 AM MLB
(967) KANSAS CITY ROYALS at (968) MINNESOTA TWINS
Take: (967) KANSAS CITY ROYALS -125
It’s the rubber match of the three-game set between the Royals and Twins, with each team having registered an easy win over the first two games. My guess is that we’re going to get a closer result today, but I can see enough edges on one side to recommend a side, and that will be the Royals.
I think the offense here has to favor Kansas City. The Royals don’t have much sock to be sure, but they’ve got the right type of lineup to give Kevin Correia trouble. The Twins righty is pretty good at keeping the ball in the park, but he gives up a load of base hits. He’s actually the perfect pitcher for the Royals to knock around with singles and doubles, which is pretty clearly their game. Correia has not done well with this opponent and sure enough, the probable KC starters are an aggregate 50/141 against Correia.
The Twins are going to be a little compromised here. Rookie sensation Danny Santana is on the DL, and his absence has been felt since he went down. Joe Mauer got dinged up last night, and it appeared to be an oblique strain, so it’s difficult to envision him playing today. Kurt Suzuki might also end up resting, as the underrated catcher caught all nine innings in spite of the lopsided score last night, so he could be in the dugout today. Note that the Royals got their catcher, Salvador Perez, a few innings of pine time in the lopsided Tuesday clash, so I would imagine he’ll play today.
I am not a big Jason Vargas guy, but he’s a better option here than Correia. It’s much closer on the metrics, but there’s no way to ignore the fact that Vargas owns a nifty 1.75 road ERA, as opposed to Correia’s ugly 6.55 ERA at Target. I also would make Vargas a decent candidate to rebound from a very rough start last time out. Vargas could also benefit from the weather, as the forecast is wind blowing in, and for a fly ball pitcher like Vargas that’s a nice bonus.
Neither one of these teams is in good current form. The Royals have slumped some since their brief residence at the top of the AL Central. The Twins are not falling apart, but they’re kind of finding their level toward the bottom of the division. I like what’s on the way in that Minnesota system but the current Twins are simply not very good.
It’s a good line here, as the Royals are favored by right about what they ought to be based on the data. So this one doesn’t fall into the value category. But I see it as a good matchup for visitors, and I will therefore side with the Royals to get the series win with the victory today.