Wednesday 7/15/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tulsa Shock cashing again after small ATS skid
Justin Hartling

The Tulsa Shock opened their WNBA season by posting an 8-0 record against the spread before dropping the following three. The Shock have now bounced back for bettors and have now covered in three consecutive.

The Shock's 11-3 ATS margin is easily the top in the WNBA, well ahead of the second place Connecticut Sun.

Tulsa will visit Indiana and the Fever as 3.5-point underdogs Wednesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 71

UFC Fight Night 71: Mir vs Duffee
Wednesday, July 15th – 10:00 p.m. ET
San Diego, California

Frank Mir (17-9-0) vs. Todd Duffee (9-2-0)

Heavyweight Bout
Line: Frank Mir (+145) vs. Todd Duffee (-175)

Todd Duffee attempts to extend his winning streak to four matches when he takes on Frank Mir, loser of four of his past five bouts, at UFC Fight Night 71.

Mir was a force when he started his UFC career back in 2001 and was the eventual heavyweight champion when he took out Tim Sylvia at UFC 48 in 2004. Since then he has earned an interim heavyweight championship and fought for the belt once, but is well past his glory days with defeats in four of his last five fights. In that time he was knocked out twice with the other two going to decision, but did bounce back most recently with a “Performance of the Night” as he knocked out Antonio Silva during the first round in February. He has won just once since 2011 and, despite being a big name in the sport, is at the tail end of his career at the age of 36.

Duffee is seven years younger than his opponent for this match and has been the equivalent of a home run hitter in baseball with all nine of his wins coming by knockout while his two losses were also via knockout. Eight of his wins came in the first round, including each of the last three; two of which were in the UFC. In the two fights since coming back to the UFC, Duffee has made quick work of both Philip De Fries and Anthony Hamilton, finishing them both off in less than 2:30 minutes and barely let things start against Hamilton at UFC 181; ending it in 33 seconds. The 29-year-old out of the University of Georgia stands at 6’3” and looks to be the future of the heavyweight division.

Mir used to be the talk of the town in the heavyweight division, but he has gone downhill fast and is now struggling to get anything going. He is coming off a dominant performance against Silva in which he out-struck him 10-1 and finished the fight in 1:40, but overall is landing just 2.18 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy. His opponents have unloaded on him to the tune of 3.97 significant strikes per minute at a ridiculous 63% accuracy rate, and in his four matches before his last win, Mir had landed a mere 53 significant strikes compared to 206 strikes against him; including a very poor performance against Alistair Overeem where he was out-struck 62-3 in three rounds.

Overall he averages 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon, but in his past five bouts has just one following two fights when he had seven total takedowns. He has defended against the takedown 54% of the time, but has not hit the mat since facing Lesnar in 2009.

Submissions are something that he looks to perform often with 2.3 submissions attempted per 15 minutes and nine of his 17 career victories have come by that tactic. Mir is past his prime and will struggle to keep up with the younger fighter.

Duffee makes things look easy in his time in the octagon, and has used aggressive attacks to get in 5.44 significant strikes per 15 minutes. His accuracy is not too impressive, though, with 34% of those attempts landing as he looks for quantity over quality, searching for the perfect unexpected punch to knock out his opposition.

Over his five career UFC fights, Duffee is taking just 1.79 significant strikes per minute as he deflects 61% of the attempts and has gotten in 28 hits compared to just nine in his last two times out. His style ends there as he does not look to take anyone down or perform a submission as evidenced by having zero of each in his time in the UFC. He also tends to stay upright with a takedown defense of 90% as he was dropped by De Fries once before knocking him out in just over two minutes.

Duffee’s fighting style is very straight forward, but effective, so it will be interesting to see if his aggressiveness can take out a veteran like Mir.

Other UFC Fight Night 71 Bouts -

Welterweight Matchup:
Andrew Craig +225
Lyman Good -290

Middleweight Matchup:
Ildemar Alcantara Even
Leandro Silva -155

Bantamweight Matchup:
Sirwan Kakai -105
Kevin Casey -130

Welterweight Matchup:
Igor Araujo +237
Sean Strickland -310

Welterweight Matchup:
Matt Dwyer +325
Alan Jouban -450

Bantamweight Matchup:
Scott Jorgensen +130
Manny Gamburyan -160

Lightweight Matchup:
James Moontasri +212
Kevin Lee-270

Lightweight Matchup:
Josh Thomson +155
Tony Ferguson -190

Women Bantamweight Matchup:
Marion Reneau +130
Holly Holm -160

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Book releases full slate of ESPYS prop bets

ESPN's annual award show, the ESPYS, is scheduled to get underway on July 15. If you're looking to get some action on it, Sportsbooks have you covered.

On Monday, Sportsbooks released some fun prop specials on the potential outcomes at the show. Here's a look at what's available:

ESPY Awards - Best Male Athlete - odds to win:

Stephen Curry (NBA) 2-3
LeBron James (NBA) 3-1
Aaron Rodgers (NFL) 2-1
J.J. Watt (NFL) 15-2


Best Female Athlete:

Ronda Rousey (UFC) 1-3
Breanna Stewart (NCAA Basketball) 25-1
Lindsey Vonn (Skiing) 11-2
Serena Williams (Tennis) 7-4


Best Game:

Athletics vs Royals - MLB AL Wild Card 11-2
Spurs vs Clippers Game 7 - NBA Western Conference Quarterfinals 11-2
Seahawks vs Patriots - Super Bowl 1-10


Best NFL Player:

J.J. Watt 5-6
Aaron Rodgers 1-1
Tom Brady 4-1
DeMarco Murray 25-1
Antonio Brown 25-1


Best NBA Player:

Stephen Curry 5-4
LeBron James 2-3
James Harden 8-1
Russell Westbrook 8-1
Anthony Davis 25-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Grand River Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 7:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$7800 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W $25000. LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 MACH DENALI 2/1


# 9 PASSION DELIGHT 8/5


# 2 PLAY GROUND 7/2

All signs point to MACH DENALI for the choice. Is a very promising win contender given the 70 speed rating from her most recent race. This nice horse will be greatly helped with McNair guiding. 19 percent winners the past month. Post 3 has been winning at a better than expected percentage, suggesting good probability of success in this contest. PASSION DELIGHT - When the trainer Moreau puts Henry up for the drive very good things happen. All you need to do is look at the 27 win percent. Talk about a dynamic duo, Henry and Moreau have some of the best driver-trainer stats at the track. PLAY GROUND - Most definitely the class of the group with an average rating of 69. A nice selection.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 6:40 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 62 - Purse:$4000 - NON WINNERS $7500 LIFETIME.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 ANASTASIA GIGGLE 7/5


# 9 TT'SSIZZLINSALLY 8/1


# 3 I'M VERY LUCKY 9/2


ANASTASIA GIGGLE surely seems to be the interesting entrant to beat for this one. She has been squaring off competently and the speed figs are among the best in the grouping. The 65 avg class number may give this filly a distinct edge in the field of starters. Could quite possibly dominate this race given the 61 TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in her most recent race. TT'SSIZZLINSALLY - Could best this field of starters, just look at the speed rating - 55 - from her most recent contest. I'M VERY LUCKY - Tough to pass on this filly with sharp Wrenn in the sulky. Major player for the triumph.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Les Bois Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Stakes - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13250 Class Rating: 71

I.T.A. ANGI GO S. - FOR REGISTERED IDAHO BRED FILLIES THREE YEAR OLDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO ENTER. WEIGHT: 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 LIMITLESSINYELLOW 8/5


# 1 I'LL WEAR WHITE 2/1


# 4 ALL ABOUT CONNIE 3/1


LIMITLESSINYELLOW is my choice. She has been running soundly lately while recording very solid speed figures. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly. I'LL WEAR WHITE - Conditioner has one of the most competitive results with maiden starters in this field. There is a decent chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. Her conditioner has done very well with runners going to the post for the first time. ALL ABOUT CONNIE - This animal enters today's outing on Lasix. Gamblers have done well with fillies and colts of this sire in the past, whose +363 ROI is one of the best in this group of horses. If you like to play exotics, don't leave this equine out, given the history of sire's offspring.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 SALUTE AMERICA 5/2


# 5 COMEONWILLIE 2/1


# 3 ORBIT THE GALAXY 7/2


SALUTE AMERICA is the most competitive bet in this race. Has quite good front-end speed and will almost certainly fare very well versus this group of animals. Should be carefully examined as he drops to compete against this softer field. Is a key contender - given the 62 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race. COMEONWILLIE - His chances to prove victorious are much better this time out facing this less demanding bunch. Is a key contender - given the 66 speed figure from his most recent race. ORBIT THE GALAXY - This gelding is a key contender based on his earnings per start in dirt route contests. Has been running in the most competitive company of the field recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Delaware - Race #8 - Post: 4:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ARECIBO (ML=2/1)
#3 LEVANTEMO (ML=4/1)


ARECIBO - Last time, was entered in a race at Parx Racing in a race with a class rating of 82. Dropping considerably in Equibase class figure this time puts him in a solid position right here in this race. Rider hops back aloft after getting to know the horse by riding last time out. That's always a good thing. The 82 most recent race speed fig looks strong on paper. Last two Equibase speed figures (73, 82) were strong. Anything close to that right here and this one could be heading straight to the winner's circle. LEVANTEMO - I have to believe Ness is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter trip. The June 23rd race at Delaware was at a class level of (76). Dropping down in class ranks considerably, so he should be in a good place. Widely used angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. Look for this gelding to run much better in this event. Last event at Delaware finishing fourth on the soft turf is no indication of his true ability. The Ness barn does well with horses off the claim. Just claimed this racer, expect an improvement Has a good chance to break maiden switching over to the dirt in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SUMMER MORN (ML=3/1), #1 SIR ROCKPORT (ML=6/1), #4 JUMP STREET (ML=8/1),

SUMMER MORN - Common speed rating last out at Delaware at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event. SIR ROCKPORT - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with M/L odds of 6/1. Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance races in order to support him. JUMP STREET - Trying to beat this thoroughbred this time out at the price of 8/1.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ARECIBO - Steady improvement in his speed ratings, 82 last race and 73 two races back. This steed is going to be tough against these ponies.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 ARECIBO to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Prairie Mdws - Race #6 - Post: 8:44pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 96

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 LANGSTON (ML=5/1)
#7 CELTIC DRAMA (ML=7/2)
#5 I REMEMBER HARLIN (ML=4/1)


LANGSTON - My sidekicks and I have made cash playing thoroughbreds with this type of speed. Follow my advice and do the same. This gelding has been claimed each of his last two starts. He figures to be tough in today's race. CELTIC DRAMA - When a racer finishes on the board as often as this gelding does, you will usually want to use him in your exotic wagers. This thoroughbred coming off a solid effort in the last month or so is a strong challenger in my humble opinion. You have to consider this magnificent animal in today's event. He has been claimed out of his last two races. You have to bet this animal at a track configuration he likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race. I REMEMBER HARLIN - When this jockey and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Tohill and Hall have been fabulous together. This horse is in good physical condition. Ended up first on Jul 5th. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a return. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. Look at this pattern of improvement. 65/75/94 are the last 3 speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 RIGHT SQUALL (ML=2/1), #3 BACKDOC (ML=6/1), #4 MY CHARLIE RAY (ML=8/1),

RIGHT SQUALL - May 29th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. BACKDOC - This gelding earned a rating in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. MY CHARLIE RAY - This questionable contender ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's race running that number.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - I REMEMBER HARLIN - This horse has the greatest last speed figure at Prairie Mdws. Must be considered in your gambling.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 LANGSTON is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #6 - BELMONT PARK - 3:55 PM EASTERN POST

6½ FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $14,000.00 CLAIMING $26,000.00 PURSE

#8 ROUNDUPTHELUTE
#9 ALYSARO
#1 GREEN DIAMOND CAT
#2 OLDWICK

#8 ROUNDUPTHELUTE is the overall speed leader in this claiming field this afternoon sprinting at, or about, today's distance of 6½ furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start. Jockey Cornelio Velasquez, and Trainer David Jacobson send him postward ... they've hit the board with 55% of their last 250 entries saddled as a team to date. #9 ALYSARO, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in both of his last two outings, including a BLISTERING, 10-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start, facing better company (+7) in that race than he will face in this claiming field today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 7/15 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,5,7 / 2,4,5 / 6,7,9 / 2 = $27


Best Bet: ANASTASIA GIGGLE (3rd)

Spot Play: UN POCO DE LOCO (12th)


Race 1

(3) LG'S PRIDE trotted a big mile after the break; if the 4-year-old minds his manners he can strike at a price. (2) FOUL BALL takes a significant drop down to the bottom level and should be in line for a great trip up close. (4) CHERRYHILL CHIP also has breaking issues; command a price.

Race 2

(4) COUNT ON KAMI two-year-old filly should only improve off a nice debut. (5) CHIP OR DON looks to have some upside in a field full of question marks. (8) HOORAH HOORAH gets a tough starting post but trotted a really nice mile in his first career effort.

Race 3

(1) ANASTASIA GIGGLE looks very tough to beat with a smooth trip; short price. (9) TT'SSIZZLINSALLY will offer a big price underneath and probably needed her last start off a long layoff. (2) PONDA BLITZ gelding has raced better than his lines indicate and is one of few threats in the race should the favorite falter.

Race 4

(3) BEAUTEOUS GIRL faces much weaker this start and should only improve off the nice effort; driver's choice. (4) DASH OF GRACE picks up the top driver and owns a win over the track; threat. (2) SHEZA RUBE filly comes from a nice family and also faces much easier.

Race 5

In a tough race to gauge, (6) AIRZOOMS IMAGE will offer value and just needs a good setup. (7) FERRISWHEEL JUNKIE is starting to turn it around and faces a softer group. (5) LU'S NEELY owns only one win in twenty-four starts on the year; command a price.

Race 6

In another tough race to gauge, (9) ACE OF SAND gets sent out second start for a new trainer in a weak field. (5) WEIRD EARZ has been competitive at this level and just needs a good setup; threat. (4) FERRISBURGH VIKING has yet to win on the year but does find a soft bunch.

Race 7

(1) BROOKLETS BLISS owns a win at this level and gets the best post. (5) WHATA PACIFIC is one of few in the race that has shown a decent burst of speed. (4) FEELIN SHADY lightly raced pacer has some upside and gets sent out for a capable trainer.

Race 8

(1) SARKIN HANOVER owns gate speed and should be in line for a good trip up close. (5) REGAL GLIDE five-year-old makes his third start back off a layoff and just needs to stay trotting for a chance to score. (7) UNLIMITED WINNER gelding is very inconsistent but a good effort puts him in the mix.

Race 9

(5) TAKE THE EDGE OFF has shown decent closing ability and should be closer turning for home. (4) SOULFIL LINDY just needs to ration out his speed for a chance late. (2) ALASTAIR HANOVER faces significantly weaker but has yet to win in two years.

Race 10

(9) COVERLET mare is one of the fastest trotters in the race and will offer a monster price. If the 5-year-old minds her manners she has a shot. (6) ROMPAWAY ELVIS picks back up the top driver down in class. (7) SAY IT BEST has been much better in a new barn; threat.

Race 11

(2) PARTYATBARTSPLACE has been knocking on the door and could get an easy early lead. (3) MEMORY IN MOTION doesn't look the best on paper but was competitive at this level earlier in the year. (1) RELLA ON ATTACK gets the best post in a weak field.

Race 12

In a wide-open race, (6) UN POCO DE LOCO well bred trotter has room to improve third start back off a layoff. (9) BIG DEE trotted a lifetime best last week; threat. (4) ANASTASIA WIGGLE filly scored off a perfect trip last start and faces similar.

Race 13

In a weak and inconsistent field, (4) ICE COLD showed big improvement last out and will threaten with a similar effort. (3) LADY SAND TERROR raced gamely last out but has yet to win in sixteen starts on the year. (1) SSSMOKN HOT SHADOW drops back to the bottom level with the best post.

Race 14

(4) CHARITY KID made the most money in the field last year and comes into the race off a decent qualifier. (3) LA'SENT owns wins against better on the year; threat. (6) DREAMANOTHERDREAM faces significantly weaker in a field full of question marks.

Race 15

(9) LET LOOSE HANOVER raced huge last out winning after making a break at the start. (5) IRISH IHADA HARLEY just needs a decent setup to sweep past late with the top driver. (1) KALLISTA just raced evenly last out; command a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (2nd) Bargaining Table, 5-1
(7th) Lucky Lotto, 3-1


Charles Town (1st) Steel Curtain, 5-1
(7th) Tuckers Point, 7-2


Delaware Park (4th) Relentless Ride, 5-1
(6th) Mr. Jenney, 3-1


Evangeline Downs (4th) Honouree, 4-1
(7th) Classic Flair, 6-1


Indiana Grand (1st) Bundler, 6-1
(8th) Artsy, 3-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) My Man Parker, 3-1
(5th) Superlicious, 5-1


Mountaineer (5th) Sovereign Road, 3-1
(9th) Frisco Executive, 7-2


Penn National (1st) Bobby McDuffie, 7-2
(6th) Kay's Finesse, 4-1


Prairie Meadows (3rd) Indyan Penny, 8-1
(5th) Glitters Show Girl, 7-2


Presque Isle Downs (4th) Attendant, 3-1
(5th) Anaylst, 3-1


Thistledown (4th) Sunny Isles Girl, 10-1
(7th) Corps of Discovery, 9-2


Woodbine (2nd) Secret Action, 3-1
(8th) Fortis, 10-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'At the break'

St Louis is not only the best in the majors with its 56-33 record, the Cardinals also hit the mid-point the best bets stuffing +$1840 into betting accounts split between 31-11 (+$1636) at Busch Stadium, 25-22 (+$204) in hostile territory. Cardinals don't cross many over home plate averaging 3.9 runs/game but make it up with the league's top rated pitching staff allowing a shade over 2.5 runs/contest. Backing Cardinals following a one run exact loss has been money in the bank as they're 12-2 in the situation (+$1004). Also keeping bettors happy are the Minnesota Twins pocketing +$1760 overall. Twins have been underdogs 29 times at home winning 21 of those contest picking up a whopping +$1676 at the betting window. At the lower end of the scale, Philadelphia (29-62) has been the worst bet dropping -$2360 to this point. No surprise, Phillies don't put up much of a fight when they are big underdogs, going just 4-19 when listed at +$1.70 or higher. The next biggest money burner, Oakland draining account to the tune of -$1713. Home Cookin' has not been good for Oakland. The A's have cost backers -$1653 at O.co Coliseum including -$1573 when chalk.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pitchers to Watch - NL
By Joe Nelson

NL Starting Pitcher Rankings – through 7.12.15

Starting pitching is critical to the result of any baseball game and there are many ways to evaluate the numbers. Here are my current rankings through the first half of the season in the National League. This is an objective list based on a combination of 2015 statistics and does not factor in any of the strengths and weaknesses of the respective teams these players pitch for, nor any previous season results.

1. Max Scherzer – Washington Nationals: Scherzer beats out Greinke by a slim margin at the break as he has the highest average Game Score in baseball at nearly 69. His 2.11 ERA is the NL’s fourth best mark and along with a great strikeout rate and the highest WAR of any starting pitcher he has been the NL’s best at the break.

2. Zack Greinke – Los Angeles Dodgers: With an incredible 1.39 ERA on the season it has been a magical run for Greinke. A lower strikeout rate and some good fortune on balls in play keeps Greinke out of the top spot but he has enjoyed a remarkable season so far and it is hard to argue with him getting the starting nod in the All Star game.

3. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers: Kershaw didn’t even make the NL All Star team and his ERA of 2.85 checks in at 22nd in MLB at the break among qualified starters. His xFIP is the lowest in the NL and while his 6-6 record makes it feel like he is not having a great season he is striking out 11.7 batters per nine innings by far the best in the NL and only barely behind Chris Sale overall.

4. Jake Arrieta – Chicago Cubs: Arrieta owns a 0.99 WHIP with a 2.66 ERA and only Scherzer and Kershaw are higher ranked in WAR among NL starters. Arrieta has struck out over a batter per inning and he has been very consistent this season with very few marginal outings. In four of his last eight starts the Cubs have been dogged or a favorite of less -110 as he isn’t getting overvalued like many of the others on this list.

5. Jacob deGrom – New York Mets: One poor early July start knocked deGrom from a great run of outings heading into the break to lead an impressive Mets rotation. He ranks fourth in the NL in ERA while featuring a very low walk rate as a 0.92 WHIP indicates. Most players on the Mets have marginal numbers on the road but deGrom owns a 2.65 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP away from Citi Field.

6. Noah Syndergaard – New York Mets: While he is not quite a qualified starter yet he will be soon and Syndergaard has lived up to his highly regarded prospect promise through 11 starts. His home road splits contrast dramatically but he would have the fifth lowest xFIP in the NL an a .304 BABIP indicates he could deliver an even stronger second half with some better bounces.

7. Johnny Cueto – Cincinnati Reds: Cueto may have a new uniform in the coming weeks and while he has always pitched well at home moving to a more pitching friendly home park could help his cause further. Cueto had one of his worst starts of the season just before the break but he owns the third lowest WHIP in the NL, and at home his WHIP is just 0.75.

8. Francisco Liriano – Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirated have closed to within 2.5 games of the Cardinals in the NL Central and Liriano is often overlooked as one of the league’s top pitchers as he can be erratic. He has had some good fortune in the first half and he has a much higher walk rate than the other top starters but the strikeouts still come at a very high rate and Liriano is a far better pitcher than his 5-6 record indicates.

9. Carlos Martinez – St. Louis Cardinals: Martinez deservedly won the NL’s final vote to head to the All Star game and he has struck out 25 more batters than he has allowed hits this season. Walks are occasionally an issue but it is clear that Martinez has arrived as the ace of the St. Louis staff with Adam Wainwright injured.

10. Matt Harvey – New York Mets: Harvey has perhaps been overshadowed by some of the other young starters on the staff for the Mets but he has enjoyed a great comeback season with strong numbers across the board. Perhaps he won’t ever match his initial hype but he continues to deliver strong starts though it generally costs a premium to back him.

11. Gerrit Cole – Pittsburgh Pirates: Cole owns a 2.30 ERA that is the fifth best in the NL but the advanced numbers don’t support Cole as much as his glowing 13-3 record would suggest. There is no question that Cole is one of the top young pitchers in the game but he has had few truly dominant outings and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain this high level as the innings add up.

12. Jason Hammel – Chicago Cubs: A recent injury sours what has been a great season for Hammel with the Cubs despite only five wins. His WHIP of 0.95 is the fifth best in the NL along with a very low walk rate and a higher strikeout rate that most might realize. His ability to be healthy to have a strong second half will be a key for Chicago’s postseason hopes.

13. Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants: It was a bit of a slow start for the 2014 World Series MVP but Bumgarner has rounded into a form for a solid first half with a very strong month of June before two lesser outings before the break. The World Series dominance will keep him overvalued on many nights but he remains one of the best southpaws in the league.

14. Jon Lester – Chicago Cubs: Lester owns an ERA substantially higher than his FIP or xFIP as a .316 BABIP has led to some tough outings with a disappointing 4-8 record for the big addition to the Cubs staff. Lester has had a handful of bad starts this season but he could be due for a stronger second half though Arrieta and Hammel may provide better returns on the Cubs staff.

15. Lance Lynn – St. Louis Cardinals: Lynn has always produced strikeouts at a high rate and he has also been burned by a very high BABIP at this point in the season even with a strong 2.90 ERA that is 12th best in the NL. Lynn seems to have about one rough start each month but he has been a key part of leading the Cardinals to the best record at the break.

16. Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies: In what could possibly be his last start with the Phillies Hamels had his worst start of the season before the break that dropped him several spots on this list. Hamels ranks just 27th in ERA in the NL but he is still one of the better strikeout pitchers in the league and joining a contender might sharpen his focus for a strong second half.

17. Tyson Ross – San Diego Padres: Not much has gone well for the Padres this season but after a slow start Ross is starting to pitch like the ace the team expected him to be after promising results last season. Over his last five starts Ross owns an average Game Score of nearly 65 and he could be a pitcher on the rise in the second half while still catching underdog pricing for the Padres at times.

18. A. J. Burnett – Pittsburgh Pirates: Making his first All Star team Burnett is having a career year, currently 2nd in the NL in ERA at 2.11. He still walks batters somewhat frequently and doesn’t have the strikeout counts of the other elite pitchers. It seems unlikely he can maintain his current clip but it has been a great story and he will have the opportunity to pitch some big games for the Pirates in the second half.

19. Chris Heston – San Francisco Giants: Throwing a no-hitter certainly provides a big boost to the numbers across the board and while Heston has pitched well he has not been consistent enough to be considered one of the elite starters in the NL. He has produced ground balls well and pitching at AT&T Park means he should be able to string together more solid outings while not being priced too high.

20. Michael Wacha – St. Louis Cardinals: Wacha has 10 wins and he has good numbers this season but he has rarely been dominant and he lacks a great strikeout rate while also catching some good fortune on balls in play. An average Game Score of just over 57 is much lower than you might expect given how successful St. Louis has been when he pitches.

Notable Absences:

Shelby Miller – Atlanta Braves (#23): With a 2.38 ERA and a handful of gems under his belt Miller made the All Star team and has been a big reason why the Braves have stayed relevant even if he has just five wins. Miller’s xFIP is more than a run higher than his ERA however and his numbers have slipped in the last several weeks.

Gio Gonzalez – Washington Nationals (#29): Gonzalez has pretty average numbers at this point in the season but he could be a climber in the second half with several strong recent outings and numbers that suggest better results than he has delivered at this point. Washington can be highly priced at home but Gonzalez has been very impressive in his home starts while struggling a bit on the road.

Mike Leake – Cincinnati Reds (#34): Leake seems like a strong candidate to be moved after the break and his brilliant road numbers suggest that leaving a hitter’s park in Cincinnati could really boost his chances for success. Leake has not been consistent but he has several high end outings under his belt in recent weeks as he has shaken off a tough month of May.

Newcomers to Watch:

Jose Fernandez – Miami Marlins: The Marlins have been a big disappointment but Fernandez can provide a boost and in two starts the Marlins are 2-0 with Fernandez looking capable of re-gaining his past form. Fernandez is certainly going to command a premium pitching for a bad team however.

Taylor Jungmann – Milwaukee Brewers: The starting rotation for the Brewers has really struggled this season but Jungmann has an average Game Score of nearly 62 with a 2.15 ERA through seven starts. The numbers suggest some regression ahead is likely but Milwaukee has received boost from their 2011 1st rounder.

Robbie Ray – Arizona Diamondbacks: Ray has pitched well in eight starts for Arizona despite lacking an overpowering strikeout rate. A low home run rate and a fortunate BABIP leaves one suspicious especially with a tough home park to pitch in but Ray has been an underdog in every outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Last Year's Cy Young winners costing bettors big in 2015
By ANDREW CALEY

It has been anything but smooth sailing for bettors who have backed last year's Cy Young winners this season.

Cleveland Indians right-hander Corey Kluber and Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw are the two worst bets in terms of starter money in 2015, at -$1,421 and -$889 respectively.

That is based on $100 betting units, risking enough to win $100 as a favorite or risking $100 as an underdog.

One problem for Kershaw, who was last season's top money starter at $1,582, is that he sees so much chalk when he pitches, a loss is very costly.

He has been an average favorite of -217.17 through his 18 starts this season, with the heaviest juice coming in his last start against the Phillies at -335. The Dodgers are 9-9 in those starts.

Despite the "struggles", Kershaw is pitching to a 2.85 ERA and has 160 strikeouts to just 27 walks.

For Kluber it is a little more perplexing.

His numbers aren't terrible, posting a 3.38 ERA with 154 strikeouts to 28 walks, but he started the season slow giving up 25 earned runs in his first six starts, while seeing moderate chalk. He has only giving up 25 in the 12 starts since.

The big problem for Kluber is that he is getting the major's worst run support, with the Indians scoring just 2.32 runs per game when he starts. That is dead last among qualified pitchers.

So while both have been anything but money for their backers, there is some hope these trends can change.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five MLB bets that could blow up after the All-Star break
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Since Major League Baseball converted to a 10-team playoff format in 2012, 27 of the 30 clubs to qualify for the postseason found themselves within five games of the division lead entering the All-Star break.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that a team six or more games back entering Tuesday’s All-Star game is up you-know-what creek without a paddle, but it does serve to illustrate just how important it is to be within striking distance at the midpoint of the season.

Because for every 2012 Oakland Athletics-like franchise (nine games back at the break, qualified for the playoffs), there are dozens of others who drifted further and further from contention as the season wound its way toward October.

When major league action returns Friday, only two weeks will remain before the July 31 trade deadline. Between that and the notion that we would always rather be ahead of the eight ball than behind it, here’s a look at five teams with highly favorable schedules coming off the 2015 All-Star break.

San Francisco Giants (46-43)

Current World Series odds: 20/1
Surge length: 18 games
Surge split: 6 home games, 12 road games

The defending champs entered the break on a high note following a three-game sweep of bottom-dwelling Philadelphia, which should aid in rejuvenating a club that was playing just .500 ball at AT&T Park prior to the Phillies’ arrival.

If the Orange and Black intend to make a serious run at winning a fourth title in six years, that journey will commence Friday when San Francisco embarks on an 18-game run that features six consecutive matchups against organizations with a losing record who are currently a combined 45 games under .500.

The good news, other than the immediate schedule, is that left fielder Nori Aoki and starting pitcher Tim Hudson are set to make their returns to the lineup in the month of July. But bettors must be sure to note that immediately following this 18-game stretch, the Giants will face eight consecutive opponents who not only each possess a winning mark at the moment, but are a combined 106 games over .500 on the season.

Hot stretch: at Arizona (3), at San Diego (3), vs. Oakland (3), vs. Milwaukee (3), at Texas (3), at Atlanta (3)

New York Yankees (48-40)

Current World Series odds: 12/1
Surge length: 28 games
Surge split: 12 home games, 16 road games

Thanks to a combination of the major’s second-highest scoring offense and less-than-stellar divisional opposition, the Pinstripes find themselves 3.5 games up in the American League East with a plus-26 run differential (11th in MLB) entering Tuesday’s All-Star game.

The real excitement for Yankees fans resides in the fact that their beloved club could drop the hammer on the rest of the division over the next four weeks of the season due to a schedule that features just one opponent with a winning record (at Minnesota), one foe with a .500 record (vs. Baltimore) and a staggering seven series’ against sub-.500 competition that is either vastly underachieving or toiling away in no man’s land prior to the July 31 trade deadline.

That 12/1 price tag doesn’t exactly offer a whole lot of value for a team with some pitching issues, but the Yankees could find themselves on cruise control in late August thanks to a very flattering upcoming schedule.

Hot stretch: vs. Seattle (3), vs. Baltimore (3), at Minnesota (3), at Texas (4), at Chicago White Sox (3), vs. Boston (3), vs. Toronto (3), at Cleveland (3), vs. Toronto (3)

Chicago Cubs (47-40)

Current World Series odds: 16/1
Surge length: 17 games
Surge split: 9 home games, 8 road games

The best roster the Cubs have fielded in years still sits an amazing eight games out of first place in the loaded National League Central, thanks to superb first-half performances by both the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates.

The upside for the Wrigley faithful is twofold, as the Cubbies are not only in possession of the fifth and final wild card spot at the moment, but will come off the break to begin an extremely tasty 17-game run against five opponents with a combined record of 187-257 (.421), three of whom currently reside in the basement of their respective divisions.

With fellow wild card contender San Francisco also set to face a soft schedule to begin the second half of the season, the latter part of July could serve as a make-or-break stretch for the boys from the north side.

Hot stretch: vs. Atlanta (3), at Cincinnati (4), vs. Philadelphia (3), vs. Colorado (3), at Milwaukee (4)

St. Louis Cardinals (56-33)

Current World Series odds: 6/1
Surge length: 18 out of 19 games
Surge split: 10 home games, 8 road games

The rich get richer as the best team in baseball at the All-Star break will commence the second half of the season with a three-game home series against the Mets before embarking on what should be an exceptionally lucrative 19-game stretch that will see the Cardinals play 18 contests against a combination of last-place clubs and middle-of-the-pack pretenders.

Pay particular attention to the run that begins on Friday, July 24 against Atlanta, since it marks the start of a 10-game home stand against three clubs who are currently a combined 33.5 games out of first place in their respective divisions.

It’s amazing to think that the Pirates are 18 games over .500 at the break and by the end of July could still be 2.5-5 games out of first place.

Hot stretch: at Chicago White Sox (2), vs. Kansas City (1), vs. Atlanta (3), vs. Cincinnati (3), vs. Colorado (4), at Cincinnati (3), at Milwaukee (3)

Cleveland Indians (42-46)

Current World Series odds: 40/1
Surge length: 13 out of 16 games
Surge split: 4 home games, 9 road games

With reigning American League Cy Young winner Corey Kluber anchoring one of the American League’s most talented pitching staffs, the Cleveland Indians opened the 2015 campaign in the eyes of many as legitimate World Series contenders backed by the respectable odds of 18/1.

The first half of the season, however, was a disaster based on those lofty preseason expectations, as the Indians went 19-26 at Progressive Field, the offense failed to find its mojo (3.94 runs per game, 20th in MLB) and Kluber won just four starts while posting a pedestrian 3.38 ERA. Now, the Tribe finds itself asking the age-old July baseball question heading into the trade deadline: Are we buyers or sellers?

The good news for Cleveland fans is that the Indians will play 13 of its next 16 games against teams with a combined 159-194 record (.450), all of whom are currently four or more games below .500 at the break.

There’s a small chance that this club could get back in the hunt before the end of the month. However, the downside is that this upcoming hot stretch features a three-game road series with the American League-leading Kansas City Royals.

Hot stretch: at Cincinnati (3), at Milwaukee (2), vs. Chicago White Sox (4), vs. Kansas City (3), at Oakland (3)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rangers' Perez to return Friday
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Texas Rangers left-hander Martin Perez, who showed promise during his first full major league season two years ago, will make his first big-league start in 14 months Friday after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

He will be activated from the disabled list Friday to face the Houston Astros in the first game of the second half of the season, multiple media outlets reported Monday.

Perez went 10-6 with a 3.62 ERA in 20 starts for the Rangers in 2013 as a 22-year-old. After that season, the Rangers rewarded him with a four-year, $12.5 million extension with three club options.

He made eight starts in 2014 until elbow problems sidelined him. He made his last major league start May 10, 2014, when he gave up nine hits and six runs in 3 2/3 innings, dropping his record to 4-3 and raising his ERA to 4.38. He had Tommy John surgery later that month.

This year, he made six minor league rehab starts at Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock, going a combined 0-1 with a 4.56 ERA.

In his most recent rehab start Sunday, he allowed 12 hits and five earned runs in six innings while pitching for Round Rock.

Perez had a minor problem with a groin injury during the recovery process, but he has had no problems with his elbow.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Papelbon again asks Phillies to trade him
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The Phillies' lone All-Star is doing his best to force his way out of Philadelphia.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon, never shy about asking for a trade from the cellar-dwelling Phillies, ramped up his campaign Monday in Cincinnati ahead of the All-Star Game.

"I signed up with a team that won 102 games (in 2011), and I expected certain things," he said. "It didn't happen, and I've tried to ride that ship and keep my mouth shut as much as I can, but it's time for the Phillies to you-know-what or get off the pot.

"I feel like three years is plenty enough time to ride it out, so to speak. If the fans don't understand that, I can't really side with them."

Papelbon added, "The Phillies have got to make a decision. You've got to go one way or the other. You can't be in limbo and sit here and say, 'What if we do this or what if we do that?' You've got to make a decision, and you've got to go with it.

"I know that we've got a new president (coming, Andy MacPhail). We've got a new interim manager (Pete Mackanin). We've got all this change supposedly happening, but I don't see any of it yet."

Papelbon, 34, is making $13 million this year, and his $13 million option for next year would vest if he finishes 48 games in 2015. At the break, he has finished 29 games, and he is 14-for-14 in save chances with a 1-1 record and a 1.60 ERA.

He is 120-for-135 in save chances over his 3 1/2 seasons with the Phillies.

Papelbon began his major league career with the Red Sox in 2005, and he was 218-for-246 in save opportunities over seven seasons in Boston. He helped the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series, going 1-0 with four saves and a 0.00 ERA in seven postseason appearances that year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tigers may make moves at trade deadline
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

The window may be closing on the Detroit Tigers' viability as a World Series contender but it's summer, and the club seemingly wants to keep it open as long as it can.

Losing first baseman Miguel Cabrera until mid- to late-August with a severe left calf strain is a blow that makes the task of overcoming first-place Kansas City's 3 1/2-game lead even more difficult but Detroit's veteran-laden team may be able to stay in the hunt until the former Triple Crown winner returns.

"I don't look at the standings too much because you can drive yourself crazy," manager Brad Ausmus said. "What you do is go out and start winning every series. We really should start winning series on a regular basis. That's how you win a division and get back into the race."

There are calls for the Tigers to be sellers and not buyers as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches but that isn't the style of club management headed by President/CEO/General Manager Dave Dombrowski.

"There's a lot of competitive balance," Dombrowski said before Detroit lost its last game before the break to fall to 44-44. "The only way that changes is if things you don't anticipate happening, happen.

"If you lose 11 games in a row, from any club's perspective, well, that changes how you feel. If you win 11 games in a row that changes how you feel, too.

"And if you continue to play the way you have been, I don't think that changes anything at all.

"I anticipate us being in position to try to win a World Championship."

The tight-lipped Dombrowski doesn't like to comment on what he's doing until he's done it but history says Detroit will be adding a starting pitcher, at the minimum, before month's end.

He's made a move to get help every July and/or August since Detroit played in the 2006 World Series. Owner Mike Ilitch has been in a win-now mode for more than a decade.

"We have to get on a roll at some point," Dombrowski said. "We have to. We're not going to be able to play a couple of games, get three games above, then one game above and then back to .500. We are not going to be able to do that and make the postseason. We have to get on a roll and the only way to do that is with good starting pitching."

Dombrowski anticipated the winter loss of Max Scherzer by adding lefty David Price at the trade deadline last year and now faces the same problem this month. Price can become a free agent at the end of the season.

Adding a front-line starter is imperative to Detroit's chances of making the postseason this year due to the first-half breakdown of three of the rotation's five members.

Right-hander Anibal Sanchez seems to have regained his effectiveness after some first-half problems with home-run balls but right-hander Justin Verlander was out until June with a bad triceps and still hasn't won a game in five starts since his return.

Right-hander Alfredo Simon has struggled with his split-finger and his control in recent starts and right-hander Shane Greene was sent to the minors to see if he could regain the form that led to sensational starts in his first three outings for the Tigers. Greene returned Sunday and got pounded for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings, only throwing quality pitches consistently in one inning.

Ausmus bunched his best hitters at the top of the lineup on the day Cabrera suffered his calf injury and they've been getting on base consistently since then, which has helped the bottom of the order.

Verlander giving Detroit consistent good starts is a must if the club is to at least compete for a wild-card spot. Adding at least a solid mid-rotation start is another.

"We have been very inconsistent through the first half," Dombrowski said. "We haven't really been on a roll since the beginning of the season. Not particularly pleased with where we are, but we're also in a position where if we play to our capabilities in the second half, we have a chance to win still."

Dombrowski is expected to pick off help for the back end of the bullpen, perhaps from a team wishing to unload a salary.

The cost will be high, though, and continuing to deal top prospects is catching up to the Tigers, whose farm system is thin at the upper levels and doesn't have many "can't miss" kids at Class A and lower.

Despite a need for young talent, Detroit seems likely to postpone that move until after the season. It would take a collapse in the two weeks following the All-Star Game for the Tigers to become a seller.

"That's not really my call, but I would probably be surprised (if we sold). I think we still have a good team," Ausmus said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blue Jays need pitching reinforcements
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

TORONTO -- Despite staggering into the All-Star break following a 3-7 road the Toronto Blue Jays retain hope that they can make the postseason for the first time since 1993.

First, they play in a poor division, the American League East.

Second, they have a group of good hitters, even if the offense hit a lull recently. That was to be expected in the era of dominating pitching. It is asking a lot to maintain an average of 5.5 runs per game.

"You look at our division, we're all stacked up and it's still up for grabs," manager John Gibbons said. "Anybody can take it. We're going to need to come out of the break playing better baseball. The break is coming at a perfect time."

The Blue Jays are being tested. They return from the break with a three games at home against the Tampa Bay Rays. Then they hit the road again for three-game series against the Oakland Athletics and the Seattle Mariners.

That means they will have played 16 of 19 games on the road when they return to Rogers Centre on July 28 to start a 10-game homestand.

Between now and the July 31 deadline for trades without waivers, general manager Alex Anthopoulos must find a way of improving the pitching and, if possible, shoring up the defensive hole in left field, the assumption being is that he is stuck with high-priced shortstop Jose Reyes and his poor fielding and .313 on-base percentage as a leadoff hitter.

So far, the Blue Jays are living off an 11-game winning streak from June 2-14. They hit well during that streak but also had a rare good pitching surge.

They batted .312/.366/.518 during that stretch, scoring 88 runs. The pitchers cooperated by posting a 3.12 ERA during those games and holding the other teams to 40 runs (35 earned) and 88 hits over 101 innings.

"We need another good streak, there's no doubt about it," Gibbons said. "And probably the team in our division that gets on one of those may end up being on top."

The pitching needs to complement the hitting. In an 11-10 loss to the Kansas City Royals on Sunday in the final game before the All-Star break, a game in which both teams played poorly, the Blue Jays fell behind 7-0 before scoring eight runs in the sixth to take the lead.

The bullpen, aided by one of Reyes' two errors on the day, came back to allow three runs in the bottom of the sixth. The Blue Jays came back to tie the game 10-10 on Reyes' single in the eighth, but right-hander Bo Schultz allowed what turned out to be the game-winning homer in the bottom of the eighth.

It was an exaggerated version of how things have gone for the Blue Jays this season from the starting pitcher putting them in the hole early and the bullpen failing when given a lead after a comeback.

"I'm proud of our guys," Gibbon said. "We battled back. The key is, you take the lead there after being down and you've got to get some outs. You've got to have some shutdown innings.

"It's tough because we've done that many a time. You've got to go out there and shut somebody down."

The pressure is on Anthopoulos to do something, particularly when he struck out at the deadline last season, probably because ownership did not want to spend the necessary money to make an important acquisition possible.

Anthopoulos wants to make a deal, but if the Blue Jays consider themselves contenders, then so do many other teams.

"You can't force it," Anthopoulos said. "You can't put an artificial timeline. There is one deadline we know (July 31). But you can't, as much as you want to do things, make a move. Some of the players that are out there that we think have a chance to improve our club, if they're not available, we can't do anything about it."

The Blue Jays saw what prolific hitting alone means -- a record one game below .500 at the All-Star break. Now they must find a way to stop other teams from hitting as much as they have, and the most likely way is to acquire pitching reinforcements. If they do, they have a chance. They are in the right division.