Wednesday's Tip Sheet
July 1, 2015
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 7:05 p.m. EST (ESPN)
On ESPN tonight, the Yankees and Angels wrap up a three-game set at Angel Stadium, with the Halos seeking a series sweep. They’ve won four in a row overall, and as a result, have vaulted over the Texas Rangers in the AL West for second place, while also being just four games back of first-place Houston. They’ll hand the ball to right-hander Matt Shoemaker (4-6, 5.03 ERA) tonight, and while the second-year starter has not had an enjoyable 2015 thus far, he has been better since mid-May, yielding three runs or less in all but one of his six starts from that point. Plus, it would be easy to forget that Shoemaker actually finished as the runner-up to Jose Abreu for last year’s AL Rookie of the Year award, so perhaps he has turned it around. He’s a -125 home favorite.
Tasked with preventing the sweep will be the mercurial Nathan Eovaldi (7-2, 4.81 ERA), who has been inconsistent in his first year with the Yankees. He’s exhibited plenty of flashes of the dominant pitcher he is capable of being with his high-90’s fastball, as he’s allowed two runs or less in more than half of his 15 starts. His ERA is probably higher than it should be, as Eovaldi also endured arguably the worst outing by a starter all year, when he surrendered eight runs in two-thirds of an inning in his return to Miami. In any event, while his win-loss record looks sparkling, so does his record for ‘over’ bets, being 10-5 in that department. The over/under for this one sits at 8.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets | 7:10 p.m. EST
Two of the National League’s brightest surprises continue their three-game series in Flushing tonight, as the Cubs look to make it two in a row. They’ll send out their Opening Day starter Jon Lester (4-6, 4.03 ERA) for this assignment, in what will be his second start of the year opposing the Mets. In the first instance at Wrigley Field, he was solid in recording a quality start, giving up three runs in six innings while striking out six, and picking up the win. Now, he gets a Mets lineup that has remarkably scored two runs or less in 10 of their last 12, seeing the ‘under’ go 10-2 over that span as well. Lester has pitched in four straight unders himself entering this middle affair in the series, and the over/under currently sits at 7.
The Mets, meanwhile, will counter with the ageless treasure Bartolo Colon (9-6, 4.89 ERA), who will be looking to get New York back into the win-column after their crucial four-game winning streak was snapped last night. Colon has been far from his best this season, but if nothing else, he’s been a consistent innings-eater, as he’s gobbled up six innings or more in 12 of his 15 starts. In the process, he’s also maintained an excellent 71/10 K/BB ratio in his 92 innings of work. The linesmakers have understandably listed him as a +105 home ‘dog, despite losing three of his past four.
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros | 8:10 p.m. EST
Despite having two of the more impactful offenses in baseball, the Royals and Astros have produced some low-scoring affairs thus far in the first two games of their three-game set at Minute Maid Park. The Royals will be trying to avoid the sweep here, and have Edinson Volquez (8-4, 3.18 ERA) leading the effort in trying to do just that. They couldn’t really pick a better option, considering they’ve won nine of the last ten games started by Volquez, who has also probably been their most consistent starter. In fact, he’s allowed no more than four runs in any of his 15 starts this season, and he’s given up exactly four runs only three times. He’s also been really good on the road this year, being 3-2 in seven road starts with a 3.14 ERA and stingy .230 BAA.
Two interesting notes concerning Astros rookie right-hander Vincent Velasquez (0-0, 3.72 ERA): he’s one of ten pitchers in Major League history to receive a no-decision in his first four career starts, and he’s the first player in baseball with the initials V.V. since former Pirates starter Virgil Vasquez. Okay, that latter note is meaningless, as I just wanted to include Vasquez, who was horrendous during his time in the big leagues, in an article in 2015. But the second note is intriguing, as Velasquez has deserved some better luck in his starts, such as his last time out when he held the mighty Yankees to two runs in six-plus innings. Velasquez has shown an ability to rack up strikeouts, having 19 punch-outs in 19 innings, but is also prone to free passes, issuing out 11 so far. He’s sitting as a -115 favorite to lead Houston to the sweep.
Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals | 8:15 p.m. EST
It’s scary to think where the White Sox would be right now without ace Chris Sale, who once again carried them to a victory last night, albeit in extra innings. Even so, it’s a huge series-opening win for Chicago against the best team in baseball, as they look to finally make their push up the standings. They’ll trot out Jose Quintana (3-7, 3.95 ERA) in game two, and while the 26-year-old doesn’t necessarily have the most desirable stats this season, he’s actually been pretty dependable. In fact, Quintana has logged six innings or more in nine straight starts, which is a testament of the steady pitching that he usually brings. However, the White Sox are just 6-9 in his outings, and currently are listed as +140 road ’dogs at Busch Stadium tonight.
Veteran John Lackey (6-4, 3.35 ERA) takes the ball for St. Louis, who, despite the loss last night, are still sitting comfortably atop all of Major League Baseball with an outstanding 51-25 record. Lackey has had a little something to do with that, continuing his nice pitching from a year ago when the Cardinals first acquired him around the trade deadline. He’s impressively gone five innings or more in all but one of his 15 starts, and is currently in his best groove of the season, having registered five quality starts in his last six tries. Additionally, Lackey has been a constant for ‘under’ bettors, having a 10-5 record for ‘under’ bets. He’ll have to help keep this game under 7 if he wants to add another tally in the win column.
