Wednesday 6/24/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 9:18 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6000 - FILLIES AND MARES WINNERS OVER $10,000 LIFETIME 4 ***NO SUPERFECTA WAGERING***


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 INDEMAN 6/1


# 3 GOLD STAR JESSICA 4/1


# 5 MAID OF SILVER 5/2


INDEMAN is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the consortium. Unquestionably the class of the group of horses with an average rating of 75. A nice play. Win figure for this driver/handler is a sparkling 23 percent - super chance. With one of the best drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this mare out of the race. GOLD STAR JESSICA - She's running in good form, recording very strong speed ratings. An excellent play. Most likely the class of the race with an average rating of 74. A nice selection. MAID OF SILVER - Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 72 TrackMaster speed fig. Earned a 66 TrackMaster SR last time out. A duplicate effort here should get the trip to the winner's circle in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 86

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 24, 2014 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 9, 2015 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 24, 2015 ALLOWED 3LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 24, 2015 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 NO CONFLICT 3/1


# 8 WINNING DUBAI 10/1


# 5 SLAMMIN' SLEW 5/2


NO CONFLICT is my choice. Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 80 speed figure which is one of the top in this group. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 5 for 26 in his races lately. With a nice class figure average of 93, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group of animals. WINNING DUBAI - Had one of the top Speed Figures of this field in his last outing. SLAMMIN' SLEW - Wagerers ought to take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 94

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 JET STREAK 6/5


# 4 SEQUANA 5/1


# 1 WALL STREET 8/5


I like JET STREAK here. Has recorded formidable speed figs in dirt route races in the past. This gelding with Pino in the irons makes him a contender. Lawrence has him trained quite well to break quickly out of the starting gate. SEQUANA - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 63 speed fig which is one of the most respectable in this group. WALL STREET - His earnings per start in dirt route races alone makes you take a look at him. Has been racing soundly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:55pm - Claiming - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,100 Class Rating: 83

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 BLING KING (ML=6/1)
#6 NAIF (ML=5/1)
#5 ARISTOCRAT AGAIN (ML=7/2)


BLING KING - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. This gelding is in superb form right now. Ended up first last time around the track and comes back quickly. This gelding looks like a natural router, based on efforts in last 2 sprint races. NAIF - Has discovered a good spot this time. ARISTOCRAT AGAIN - This campaigner coming off a strong try in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my opinion. Delgado and Inirio perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +21 return on investment for a rider and trainer. You probably should disregard that last race at Thistledown on a track listed as good where he finished off the board. Should do well in this event without the slop.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CONNER CAN (ML=5/2), #7 MOUNTAIN GULCH (ML=9/2), #1A HIGH HOPES E DAY (ML=6/1),

CONNER CAN - This chalk horse ran on May 29th and hasn't had a drill since then. MOUNTAIN GULCH - You always figure that this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he falls short often. Ran a great speed rating last time around the track, but the struggle will probably take too much out of him. HIGH HOPES E DAY - Not probable that the speed rating he earned on Jun 13th will hold up in this clash.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 BLING KING is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #7 - Post: 4:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 DONEGAL HALL (ML=8/1)
#7 L G'S LITTLE MAN (ML=6/1)
#3 SMOKING THE FIELD (ML=4/1)


DONEGAL HALL - You always have to be on the patrol for money making jock/handler combinations; we have an instance right here. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today. L G'S LITTLE MAN - This gelding is in good physical condition, having run a strong race on June 5th, finishing first. Just see his recent speed rating, 87. That one fits well in this bunch. SMOKING THE FIELD - I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. Zerpa drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to think this animal is in a good spot at this level. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DANGEROUS TRICK (ML=2/1), #8 QUIZ WHIZ (ML=5/2),

DANGEROUS TRICK - Doubtful that this equine will finish better than he did last time when placing sixth. QUIZ WHIZ - This horse ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's event running that rating.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 DONEGAL HALL to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [3,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #6 - BELMONT PARK - 3:55 PM EASTERN POST

8½ FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ALLOWANCE $62,000.00 PURSE

#2 LAKESIDE SUNSET
#3 RAZIA SULTANA
#7 GERALDINE
#6 PRIZE TAKER

#2 LAKESIDE SUNSET is the only entry in this allowance field racing at, or about, 8½ furlongs on the dirt not taking a step-up in class this afternoon, and has hit the board in each of her four career starts to date, with her last three efforts, including a maiden-breaking win in her 3rd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Bruce Brown send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 53% of their more than 65 entries saddled as a team to date. #3 RAZIA SULTANA, a 6-1 shot, has hit the board in three of her last four outings, including an impressive, 11-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (3rd) Prairie Stone, 5-1
(4th) Number One, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Whatabouthonor, 9-2
(5th) Devil's Mistress, 9-2

Delaware Park (1st) Chili Bean, 3-1
(6th) Ball and Chain, 5-1


Evangeline Downs (3rd) Hot Yankee, 7-2
(4th) Gentle Secret, 5-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Romantic Forever, 6-1
(3rd) Centella, 7-2


Indiana Grand (5th) Cantico, 7-2
(6th) First Beach, 5-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) Thunderstruckagain, 3-1
(4th) My Boy Gene, 6-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Is Not, 5-1
(6th) Silver Crescent, 7-2


Penn National (3rd) Lorax, 4-1
(4th) Dinny Dinosaur, 3-1


Presque Isle Downs (2nd) It's Candy Time, 9-2
(4th) Shady Rules, 5-1


Thistledown (5th) Fabled Star, 9-2
(6th) Mr. Wiseguy, 9-2


Woodbine (6th) She's a Ringer, 3-1
(8th) Stevie Loves Women, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Preview: Athletics (32-41) at Rangers (37-34)

Game: 2
Venue: Globe Life Park in Arlington
Date: June 24, 2015 8:05 PM EDT

Although the Oakland Athletics remain largely irrelevant in the AL West, at this rate they may start believing it's not out of the question to get there again this season.

They're fewer than 10 games under .500 for the first time since entering play on May 13 at 13-22 and will be seeking their eighth win in 10 games Wednesday night while trying to secure another series victory in Texas.

After a series-opening 8-6 win Monday, Oakland (32-41) is chasing its third four-game win streak in under four weeks - part of an 18-11 span since it was an MLB-worst 14-30 through May 22. Toronto is the only AL team with a better winning percentage in that time.

The Athletics have won three in a row against the Rangers (37-34) and haven't lost a series in Texas in over two years, going 13-4 since with 5.8 runs per game. In their last nine overall, they're averaging 6.9 runs and batting .304.

Ben Zobrist homered for the third time in seven games and is hitting .419 in the last nine. Josh Phegley went deep for the third time in his last six, but Oakland expects fellow catcher Stephen Vogt (elbow) back in the lineup Wednesday. Leadoff hitter Billy Burns extended his hitting streak to a career-best 13 and is batting .343 in his last 24.

That lineup will be up against Wandy Rodriguez, who is unbeaten in six starts. Rodriguez (4-2, 3.20 ERA) is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in that span with his worst outing of the bunch coming last Wednesday despite him earning the win. The left-hander surrendered three runs and nine hits in 5 1-3 innings of a 5-3 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Even with the impressive span, he's still looking for his first home win since joining Texas to begin the season. He's 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA at Globe Life Park as opposed to 4-0 with a 2.28 mark on the road.

He's up against Kendall Graveman, who is finally providing the form the A's hoped for after a promising spring.

Graveman (3-4, 4.02) has deserved better in consecutive losses, surrendering three runs and 13 hits in 15 innings while receiving one run of support. In his last three, he's pitched better than he has all year with an 0-2 record and 1.64 ERA while going at least seven innings in each after topping out at six in his first seven outings.

In Thursday's 3-1 home loss to San Diego, Graveman gave up two solo home runs among five hits in seven innings. He walked one to drop his walks per nine innings to 1.23 in those three starts after posting a 3.97 mark through seven starts that were interrupted by a stint in Triple-A.

"When you get up and experience some failure, you actually have to understand what you are doing wrong," Graveman said. "There's a growing process no matter how long you play the game. I understood that when I went down there I had to work on a few things."

The right-hander opened the season April 9 by allowing eight runs - seven earned - and seven hits in 3 1-3 innings at home against Texas with Shin-soo Choo and Mitch Moreland both going deep.

Texas is in danger of matching a season-worst four-game losing streak, though it at least got its bats going Monday after totaling six runs in the previous four games.

The Rangers got Adrian Beltre (thumb) back from a 19-game absence, though he's not yet 100 percent.

"I can't remember the last time I played without pain," Beltre told MLB's official website. "It's just a matter of tolerating it."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mets C d'Arnaud returns to DL
The Sports Xchange

The New York Mets put injury-plagued catcher Travis d'Arnaud on the 15-day disabled list before Tuesday night's game against the Milwaukee Brewers.

D'Arnaud suffered a hyperextended left elbow during a collision at the plate during the Mets' 6-4 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Saturday. He sat out Sunday's game against the Braves before the team had an off day on Monday.

After an MRI in Milwaukee indicated the extent of the injury, d'Arnaud returned to New York earlier Tuesday.

To replace d'Arnaud on the roster, the Mets called up catcher Johnny Monell from Triple-A. Monell is expected to back up Kevin Plawecki behind the plate until d'Arnaud recovers from his latest injury.

After seven weeks on the DL with a broken right hand, d'Arnaud had returned to action on June 10. The 26-year-old has been limited to 19 games this year and is batting .296 with four home runs and 17 RBIs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Sox ship Cuban OF Castillo to Triple-A
The Sports Xchange

The Boston Red Sox sent Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo back to Triple-A Pawtucket on Tuesday.

The 27-year-old who signed a seven-year, $72.5 million contract after leaving his native country spent the past week on the Boston bench. It appears the Red Sox made the move to get Castillo more playing time in the minors.

After Castillo's call-up in May, he saw regular playing time before the Red Sox obtained veteran outfielder Alejandro De Aza.

In 26 games this year for the Red Sox, Castillo is batting .230 with one home run, six RBIs and one stolen base in 74 at-bats.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Braves place 1B Freeman on DL
The Sports Xchange

A right wrist injury has landed Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman on the disabled list.

The Braves placed the slugging 25-year-old on the DL Tuesday one day after he had an MRI. The team has not revealed the results of the MRI, but indications are that there is no structural damage to the wrist.

Freeman suffered the injury while swinging in a game against the New York Mets last week. He is batting .299 with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs this season.

The Braves are hoping Freeman will be able to rejoin the team before the All-Star break.

Outfielder Joey Terdoslavich was recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to fill Freeman's roster spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Garcia on an Under streak ahead of matchup with Fish
Stephen Campbell

St. Louis Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has become a favorite for bettors of low totals as of late, evidenced by the Under cashing in each of his last four outings.

He's scheduled to get the nod Wednesday against Jose Urena (1-3, 4.18 ERA) and the Miami Marlins.

The total opened at 7.5 but has since dropped to 7.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Reds' Leake has been far from a road warrior
Stephen Campbell

The Cincinnati Reds are 3-13 in Mike Leake's last 16 road starts.

Leake will get the ball away from home once again Wednesday when the Reds take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The Bucs are slated to counter with Gerrit Cole.

Oddsmakers have set Pittsburgh as -187 faves for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'BoSox try to halt skid vs Orioles'

After last night's series opening victory Baltimore has won six consecutive against division rival Boston and have managed to pick up eight wins in eleven meetings this season. Bud Norris carrying a 2-5 record, 7.57 ERA will be tasked with keeping the Baltimore streak alive. Not the best news, the right-hander has a 1-4 record, 7.23 ERA in his five road starts and has a career 0-3 Team Start Record at Fenway Park with both Baltimore and Houston. Clay Buchholz currently at 4-6 on the campaign with a 3.87 ERA will opposed Norris. Buchholz looks for his second straight win after going seven innings in his last effort with just six hits and two unearned runs while striking out three. Red Sox lost an earlier meeting vs Baltimore w/Buchholz but remain 5-2 vs Orioles the past seven with the hurler. One final betting nuggets, that Buchholz victory at Atlanta last time out gives the right-hander an eye-popping 16-1 streak in June team starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, June 24, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Feel like I have to talk about the latest Pete Rose news. Am I surprised that it has come to light that he did indeed bet on baseball games while a player as well? Absolutely not. Pete lied when he said at first he didn't bet as a manager before finally being caught in that. The only thing that surprises me is that it took this many years to get documented proof. Some say Rose betting as a player is worse than as a manager. I disagree. Yeah, a player could try to throw a game himself but a manager is in charge of every player and can sit guys, put in an applicable pitcher, etc. It's too bad this happened for Rose now because the All-Star Game is in Cincinnati and he was going to be a part of all that. There likely would have been a groundswell of support to finally lift Rose's ban, but that's never going to happen now and his Hall of Fame chances are zero.


Phillies at Yankees (-123, 8)

Potentially important day for the Yankees as right-hander Ivan Nova makes his first big-league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. His last big-league start was on April 19, 2014, when he left after four innings against the Rays complaining of pain in his elbow. He was bombed in that game for eight runs (four homers). Nova has made three official minor-league rehab starts of late and wasn't very good in his last Friday. Nova has never faced the Phillies, who will have the designated hitter available. Jeff Francouer has faced him, going 4-for-5 with three RBIs. It's Phillies ace Cole Hamels (5-5, 2.96), who was scratched from his last start Friday with because of a strained right hamstring, but he says he's fine now. Every start might be his last as there will be plenty of scouts watching him wherever he goes. New York's Mark Teixeira is 5-for-17 with two homers off him. Will he play? Tex had a cortisone shot for a neck injury on Monday but an MRI was negative. He didn't play Monday or Tuesday.

Key trends: The Phillies are 2-7 in Hamels' past nine interleague starts. The Yankees are 10-1 in Nova's past 11 at home vs. teams with a losing record. The "over/under" has gone under in seven of Hamels' past 10 road starts vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Phillies and under.


White Sox at Twins (-130, 7)

The Pale Hose are just about unwatchable most nights these days but not when lefty ace Chris Sale (6-3, 2.74) takes the mound and he will here. Sale is working on a streak of six straight games striking out at least 10 and five straight with at least 12. The latter has tied a big-league record. Only Pedro Martinez in 1999 and Randy Johnson in 1998 have done it. In those six starts, Sale has a 1.19 ERA but only a 3-2 record because the Sox offense stinks. Sale is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA this season in three starts vs. the Twins. Torii Hunter hits .270 off him with two homers and 11 strikeouts. Minnesota's Phil Hughes (5-6, 4.47) has had three straight quality starts. Hughes is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Sox. Jose Abreu is 7-for-17 with three doubles and three RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Sox are 4-10 in Sale's past 14 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Twins are 1-6 in Hughes' past seven vs. the AL Central. The under is 7-1 in Sale's past eight. The over is 6-2 in his past eight vs. Minnesota.

Early lean: Big on under. Take Chicago.


Braves at Nationals (-158, 7.5)

Atlanta's best offensive player, first baseman Freddie Freeman, is likely headed for the disabled list with a wrist injury. He had an MRI on Monday and didn't take the flight to D.C. with his teammates afterward so that's a pretty obvious sign. Freeman is hitting .299 with 12 homers and 41 RBIs. So that will make things easier for Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 3.75). Washington has lost his past three outings. He is 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts this year against the Braves. Nick Markakis is 5-for-18 with a homer off him. Andrelton Simmons just 3-for-19. It's Shelby Miller (5-3, 1.99) for Atlanta. The Braves have lost four of his past five but he has generally been solid. Miller hasn't faced the Nationals in 2015. Bryce Harper is 1-for-8 off him. Denard Span 1-for-11.

Key trends: The Braves are 6-0 in Miller's past six vs. the NL East. The Nationals are 9-0 in Zimmermann's past nine starts with six days of rest. The over is 6-2 in Zimmermann's past eight at home vs. Atlanta.

Early lean: Another big under. Nationals.


Dodgers at Cubs (+101, TBA)

Keep an eye on Cubs center fielder and leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler's status over the next few games as he had to leave Monday's win over the Dodgers with a sprained left ankle. He is hitting .240 with eight homers and 22 RBIs. The Cubs are rather thin on outfielders as it is with Jorge Soler on the DL. Mike Bolsinger (4-2, 2.87), who was born in Chicago. starts for the Dodgers here. He wasn't good last time out, allowing five runs and eight hits over 8.1 innings against the Giants. A few Cubs have faced him. Anthony Rizzo is 0-for-3 and Starlin Castro 0-for-2. Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (2-3, 4.28) comes off his worst start of the season, allowing seven runs and 11 hits in five innings of a loss to the Twins. Yasiel Puig is 1-for-3 off him.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 1-6 in their past seven on Wednesday. The Cubs are 9-1 in Hendricks' past 10 at home. The under is 6-1 in his past seven vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Cubs and probably over (wait on wind).


Royals at Mariners (-118, 7.5)

Now this sounds painful. Seattle outfielder Nelson Cruz left in the seventh inning of Monday night's loss to the Royals after he popped his pelvic bone out of place. Apparently the trainers just popped it back in but Cruz might have to miss a game or two. He's having an MVP-caliber season, batting .315 with 19 homers and 44 RBIs. Kansas City lefty Danny Duffy (2-3, 5.87) will come off the disabled list and make his first big-league start since May 16. Apparently he also spent that month altering his delivery a bit. Cruz is 1-for-5 career off him. Austin Jackson is 6-for-20 with a homer. Lefty Roenis Elias (4-4, 3.56) goes for Seattle. He tied a career high by striking out 10 last time out against Houston. Elias allowed two runs in seven innings -- solo dingers on his first and last pitches. Alex Gordon is 3-for-6 against him. Alcides Escobar is 2-for-3 with a homer and four RBIs.

Key trend: The Royals are 1-6 in their past seven vs. lefties. The Mariners are 1-7 in Elias' past eight at home. The under has hit in nine of his past 11 there.

Early lean: Mariners and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

-- John Farrell got thrown out in 7th inning last night; Boston's frustration level keeps going up, as losses mount. They sent Rusney Castillo back to AAA.

-- Boston RFs are hitting .203 this season, with two home runs. No bueno.

-- Why would the Padres bat Melvin (BJ) Upton leadoff? He's hitting .154. He'll help their defense in centerfield, but he's an 8th-place hitter.

-- Giants are 9-3 against the Dodgers this season but they've lost nine of their last ten home games overall- they blew a 2-0 lead in 8th inning in last night's loss. .

-- Mets put Travis d'Arnaud on the DL, as their once-promising season gets worse.

-- Tampa Bay's TV announcers claim the Rays have the best up-the-middle defense in baseball; who can argue? The Rays are in first place.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

ASTROS (McCullers) @ ANGELS (Shoemaker) 3:35 PM

Take: ASTROS +105

If you haven’t seen Lance McCullers in action yet, you’ve missed out on catching one of the best young arms in the game. McCullers is not yet a finished product, but this is a kid with a legit chance to be a true ace.

McCullers still has occasional issues with his control. That’s something he figures to iron out as he gains experience. But even with the occasional bouts with command, this guy can make opposing hitters look awful at times and he has shown some real flashes of dominance.

The McCullers that showed up last outing at Seattle needs to skip this afternoon’s game. The McCullers from the second start back threw no-hit ball for five innings. But because he ran up a huge pitch count and handed out too many walks, his day ended before he even got a chance to lose the no-hitter. But prior to those two starts, McCullers had done most everything right, and I’ll hope that’s the version I get today.

But this more about going against Matt Shoemaker than it is about backing McCcullers. Shoemaker has taken a substantial step backward this season. Shoemaker is still doing some things well and his 5.20 ERA is a bit misleading. He’s maintaining an enviable BB/K ratio and his xFIP and SIERA numbers are okay.

But there have been some problems for Shoemaker and they’re right there to see in black and white. Velocity is down a tick and the fly ball percentage has gone up. Unfortunately for Shoemaker, so have the home runs surrendered. That’s the data speaking. In terms of what I’ve seen, Shoemaker has simply been leaving more pitches up in the zone this year. When his splitter doesn’t sink, it becomes a very hittable fastball and too many of those mistakes are leaving the yard.

The key bullpen pieces for each team should be fresh enough today and I’ll give the Halos the edge in that category. But I like the Houston offense in this spot and I will give McCullers the advantage over Shoemaker. I made the Angels -109 here so it’s not like there’s big value on the visitors. But there’s enough to side with the Astros as long as they’re dogs, so Houston is the Wednesday comp.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Cardinals-122
Dodgers-112
Royals+105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Wednesday... Over 8 runs Mets and Brewers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals

Bonus Play Washington Nationals

I'm recommending a play on the Washington Nationals on Wednesday with Zimmerman over Miller. The Nats got a decent outing in Stephen Strasburg's return last night, leading to their fourth straight win. Jordan Zimmerman may not have the same velocity as he did when he was at his best, but he's suffered some bad luck along the way this season. Having said that, Zimmerman still has outstanding numbers at home, where he's posted a 2.75 ERA & 1.22 WHIP in eight starts. In fact, Zimm owns a sub-2.90 ERA in his last 59 home starts! The Nats have won both of his outings against the Braves this season after posting a 2.83 ERA against Atlanta in his previous six starts against them. Shelby Miller goes for the Braves. The righty has not won a decision in his last six starts and we've seen his strikeouts coming down as the season has progressed. Miller has fanned just 17 batters in his last five starts, combined, spanning 30 1/3 innings. The Braves are just 1-4 in his last five starts, allowing 24 runs in the losses. Miller will face a Washington lineup ranked in the top five in batting average and OBP over the last week, sporting a .317 team batting average and .367 OBP over their last seven games. I expect the Nats' winning streak to reach five games. I'm recommending a play on Washington on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.