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MLB

Wednesday's games

National League games

Giants @ Pirates
Samardzija is 1-2, 5.32 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts went over.

Liriano is 0-4, 8.57 in his last four starts, four of which stayed under.

Giants are 19-7 in last 26 road games,under is 14-8 in last 22 Giant road games. Pirates lost 11 of last 13 games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.

Braves @ Marlins
Wisler is 1-4, 6.83 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.

Conley is 1-2, 4.91 in his last six starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Braves won their last six games; under is 10-2 in last 12 Atlanta road games. Miami won five of last eight games; under is 8-3 in their last eleven home games.

Cardinals @ Cubs
Wacha is 0-1, 1.84 in his last two starts; seven of his last eight went over.

Arrieta is 2-1, 1.80 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Cardinals lost five of last seven games; six of their last seven games stayed under total. Chicago is 11-4 in its last 15 home games but lost last two (under 10-2 in last 12).

Nationals @ Dodgers
Ross is 3-0, 3.77 in his last three starts, last three of which went over.

Urias is 0-1, 1.88 in his last three starts, which all stayed under.

Washington lost its last four games; 10 of their last 13 road games went over the total. Dodgers won 13 of last 16 at home; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.


American League games

Mariners @ Tigers
Iwakuma is 5-1, 4.39 in his last six starts (over 6-1 in last seven).

Fulmer is 5-1, 0.45 in his last six starts (over 7-3).

Mariners lost nine of last 11 road games; over is 8-5 in their last 13 road games. Tigers won seven of last eight home games; six of last nine Detroit games went over the total.

Rays @ Indians
Archer is 1-5, 6.14 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. .

Bauer is 1-0, 1.99 in his last three starts; six of his last eight starts stayed under.

Rays lost their last six games; over is 17-4-1 in last 22 Tampa road games. Cleveland won its last ten home games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games

White Sox @ Red Sox
Quintana is 0-6, 3.86 in his last seven starts; his last 13 starts stayed under.

Rodriguez is 1-2, 6.97 in four starts, three of which stayed under.

Boston is 4-8 in last 12 home games; seven of its last nine home games stayed under. Chicago lost 13 of last 18 road games; five of their last six road games stayed under.

Angels @ Astros
Shoemaker is 1-2, 2.03 in his last six starts, five of which stayed under.

McCullers is 3-1, 3.34 in his last five starts; five of his last six stayed under. .

Angels lost seven of last nine road games; four of last five Angel games stayed under total. Houston won 11 of last 13 home games; under is 11-2 in Astros' last 13 games.


Interleague

Rockies @ Bronx
Gray is 3-1, 3.24 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Sabathia is 4-2, 1.23 in his last seven starts; seven of his last eight starts went under. .

Rockies lost three of last four games; seven of their last nine road games stayed under. New York won three of last five games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine at home. .

Padres @ Orioles
Johnson is 0-2, 8.44 in two starts for San Diego (over 1-1).

Jimenez is 1-4, 11.86 in his last six starts; his last seven starts went over.

Padres lost 10 of their last 13 road games; last six San Diego games went over the total. Baltimore won nine of last 12 home games; over is 9-5 in their last fourteen home games.

Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays
Ray is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight.

Happ is 3-1, 3.66 in his last five starts; his last three starts went over.

Arizona won its last six road games; under is 8-1 in last nine Arizona road games. Toronto won nine of last 13 home games; seven of last ten Blue Jay games went over.

Royals @ Mets
Duffy is 2-1, 3.09 in his last four starts (under 4-3).

Syndergaard is 5-0, 1.97 in his last seven starts; his last four starts went over.

Royals won eight of last ten games; under is 7-2-1 in last ten KC road games. Mets lost eight of last 12 games; six of last eight New York home games stayed under.

Reds @ Rangers
Straily is 2-2, 4.88 in his last five starts; five of his last seven went over. .

Hamels is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four starts; six of his last eight starts went over.

Rangers are 23-7 in their last 30 games; four of last six Texas games stayed under total. Cincinnati lost four of last six games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 road games.

Phillies @ Twins
Morgan is 0-6, 8.35 in his last seven starts (over 6-1).

Gibson is 0-5, 6.68 in six starts this season (under 4-2).

Phillies lost their last eight games; over is 10-3 in last 13 Philly road games. Minnesota lost five of last seven games; over is 15-3 in Twins' last 18 home games.

Brewers @ A's
Guerra is 1-1, 4.81 in his last four starts (under 4-2-1 in his last seven). .

Mengden is 0-2, 3.00 in his first two MLB starts (under 2-0).

Milwaukee lost eight of last nine road games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. Oakland lost 12 of last 16 games; under is 4-0-1 in A's last five games.


Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:

SF-Pitt-- Samardzija 9-5; Liriano 6-7
Atl-Mia-- Wisler 3-10; Conley 7-7
StL-Chi-- Wacha 6-8; Arrieta 12-2
Wsh-LA-- Ross 9-4; Urias 2-3

Sea-Det-- Iwakuma 8-6; Fulmer 8-2
Chi-Bos-- Quintana 6-8; Rodriguez 2-2
TB-Clev-- Archer 5-10; Bauer 5-5
LA-Hst-- Shoemaker 4-9; McCullers 4-3

Col-NYY-- Gray 5-6; Sabathia 6-5
SD-Balt-- Johnson 0-2/0-2; Jimenez 6-7
Az-Tor-- Ray 5-9; Happ 9-5
KC-NYM-- Duffy 5-2; Syndergaard 9-4
Cin-Tex-- Straily 6-6; Hamels 10-4
Phil-Minn-- Morgan 2-8; Gibson 1-5
Mil-A's-- Guerra 7-2; Mengden 0-2


Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:

SF-Pitt-- Samardzija 2-14; Liriano 4-13
Atl-Mia-- Wisler 7-13; Conley 5-14
StL-Chi-- Wacha 4-14; Arrieta 1-14
Wsh-LA-- Ross 3-13; Urias 1-5

Sea-Det-- Iwakuma 2-14; Fulmer 2-10
Chi-Bos-- Quintana 2-14; Rodriguez 1-4
TB-Clev-- Archer 7-15; Bauer 3-10
LA-Hst-- Shoemaker 3-13; McCullers 3-7

Col-NYY-- Gray 4-11; Sabathia 0-11
SD-Balt-- Johnson 2-4; Jimemez 5-13
Az-Tor-- Ray 2-14; Happ 4-14
KC-NYM-- Duffy 0-7; Syndergaard 9-4
Cin-Tex-- Straily 2-12; Hamels 3-14
Phil-Minn-- Morgan 4-10; Gibson 3-3
Mil-A's-- Guerra 2-9; Mengden 0-2


Umpires

Atl-Mia-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen Cuzzi games.
SF-Pitt-- Last three Reynolds games stayed under.
StL-Chi-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Wolcott games.
Wsh-LA-- Underdogs are 10-8 in last 18 Nelson games.

Chi-Bos-- Six of last seven Estabrook games stayed under.
Sea-Det-- Eight of last ten Danley games went over total.
TB-Clev-- Nine of last ten TBarrett games went over.
LA-Hst-- Eight of last ten Cooper games stayed under.

Col-NYY-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Diaz games.
KC-NYM-- Underdogs won last six Hirschbeck games.
Mil-A's-- Last four Kellogg games stayed under total.
Az-Tor-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Everitt games.
SD-Balt-- Over is 29-13-1 in Meals games since LY.
Cin-Tex-- Home side won seven of last nine Rackley games; two losses came in games of 13 and 17 innings.
Phil-Min-- Three of last four Torres games stayed under.
 
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Wednesday's six-pack

-- This is the first time a full moon happened on the first day of sunmer since 1967.

-- Texas Rangers are 16-4 in one-run games this season.

-- Since May 13, Mariners are 3-10 in games where winning run scores from the 7th inning on-- over is 12-2-1 in their last fifteen series openers.

-- Jay points out that the last time an SEC team didn't win a game in the College World Series was in 2007.

-- Cal-Hawai'i are opening college football season in Australia; Georgia Tech will be playing Boston College in Ireland.

-- Orioles played at home Sunday, flew to Texas for a makeup game Monday, then back to Baltimore for Tuesday night's game with San Diego.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

DIAMONDBACKS (Ray) at BLUE JAYS (Happ) 4:05 PM

Take: DIAMONDBACKS +155

I make today’s Diamondbacks-Blue Jays interleague battle being a close call on the analysis. That’s where the price comes into play, as I see Arizona having a good deal of value with the number on this contest being as high as it is.

JA Happ gets knocked from sabermetrics number crunchers. His W/L record going back to the second half of last season is downright spectacular. But when examining several of the Happ peripherals, it’s not outrageous to suggest the veteran lefty has had Lady Luck smiling at him on a regular basis.

I won’t got the knock Happ route. He’s consistency done well enough to give his team a good chance to win, and his game scores for the season are above average. Believe me, I’ve been very much a metrics guy over the past several seasons. But I’ve also come to realize that the ability to hang in and find ways to win might ultimately be more important, and Happ has been dynamite as far as that goes.

Robbie Ray will be on the mound for the Snakes today. He has become somewhat predictable in that when his command is good, he’s a very tough lefty. When Ray struggles to find the strike zone, his pitch count explodes and he ends up having to work behind in the count. That’s when bad things happen to Ray. The good news is that Ray seems to be figuring things out. I’ve been very impressed with his last two outings, each of which included just one free pass. I have little doubt that Ray will still throw in the occasional clunker, but I think it’s fair to say that I’m beginning to have more confidence in him at this point.

I like the idea of backing a hot team catching a nice price, and that’s certainly the scenario here as the Diamondbacks are playing their best ball of the season right now. Granted, the first four wins in their current 5-0 run came against the reeling Phillies. But Arizona has now won eight of its last ten and they’ve actually been a pretty good road team all season.

The Blue Jays had been on a tear with seven wins in eight games, and the offense was really coming together for this Toronto team. But the Jays have now dropped three in a row, and while Happ dominated the Phillies in his more recent start, he was roughed up in the prior two.

I make Toronto the favorite in this game, but not by nearly as much as the Blue Jays are currently priced. So I’ll go with the Diamondbacks as a live dog with a nice price tag to get the upset this afternoon.
 
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Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Wednesday, June 22, 2016 10:10 PM

(907) WASHINGTON (ROSS) VS (908) DODGERS (URIAS)

Play Washington.
 
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Roz Wins

Roz's Wednesday, June 22, 2016, Free MLB Pick: 8:10 PM

(929) PHILADELPHIA (MORGAN) VS (930) MINNESOTA (GIBSON)

Play UNDER the total.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp MLB Pick, Wednesday, June 22, 2016 4:05 PM

(923) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS (924) TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, June 22, 2016 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Cincinnati Reds and the Texas Rangers. Toronto is an easy home run park and the Diamondbacks pick up the DH for this interleague series. Arizona has a strong offense anyway, No. 12 in baseball in runs scored. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Diamondbacks last 9 interleague road games. Arizona lefty Robbie Ray has a losing record and a 4.44 ERA and the over is 7-1 in his last eight starts. Toronto's offense continues to roll, No. 7 in baseball in runs scored. The Over is 18-6-2 in the Blue Jays last 26 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. JA Happ's last three starts have resulted in final scored of 13-2, 11-6 and 11-0. And the Over is 39-18-4 in the Blue Jays last 61 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Play Arizona/Toronto Over the total.
 

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