MLB
Wednesday, June 15
Jason Hammel's teams have not lost in his starts vs Nationals since Apr. 2010 (won 9 in a row) CHC +123 WAS -138
Nats are 14-1 in Strasburg's last 15 home starts & W/O combo is 11-1 in his last 12 at home. CHC +123 WAS -138 T: 7
Brewers are 0-6 in Nelson's last 6 vs teams above.500 & Giants are 13-3 in last 16 meetings. SF -210 -1.5 (+100)
Wednesday, June 15
Jason Hammel's teams have not lost in his starts vs Nationals since Apr. 2010 (won 9 in a row) CHC +123 WAS -138
Nats are 14-1 in Strasburg's last 15 home starts & W/O combo is 11-1 in his last 12 at home. CHC +123 WAS -138 T: 7
Brewers are 0-6 in Nelson's last 6 vs teams above.500 & Giants are 13-3 in last 16 meetings. SF -210 -1.5 (+100)
Dave Price
St. Louis Cardinals -117
This is a very generous price to get the St. Louis Cardinals at home. I know Adam Wainwright isn't having his best season, but he's better than Collin McHugh. Wainwright is 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 6 home starts this year, and 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last 3 starts, so he is clearly getting it figured out. Wainwright owns the Astros, going 13-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in 15 lifetime starts against them. McHugh is 5-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 13 starts this year, and 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA in 6 road starts. He is also 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. St. Louis. Wainwright is 79-35 (+31.7 Units) against the money line after a loss in his career. The Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. St. Louis is 43-19 in Wainwright's last 62 starts overall.
St. Louis Cardinals -117
This is a very generous price to get the St. Louis Cardinals at home. I know Adam Wainwright isn't having his best season, but he's better than Collin McHugh. Wainwright is 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 6 home starts this year, and 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last 3 starts, so he is clearly getting it figured out. Wainwright owns the Astros, going 13-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.994 WHIP in 15 lifetime starts against them. McHugh is 5-5 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 13 starts this year, and 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA in 6 road starts. He is also 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. St. Louis. Wainwright is 79-35 (+31.7 Units) against the money line after a loss in his career. The Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. St. Louis is 43-19 in Wainwright's last 62 starts overall.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -136
The Washington Nationals want to make a statement that they are going to be in the NL pennant race for the long haul with the Chicago Cubs. After splitting the first two games of this series, I look for the Nationals to take Game 3 at home tonight behind their ace.
Stephen Strasburg has yet to lose in 2016. Indeed, he's 10-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 13 starts. He has recorded a whopping 110 strikeouts in 86 innings. Strasburg has also posted a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago.
Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team winning at least 62% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 87-34 (71.9%, +41.4 units) over the last five seasons.
The Cubs are 5-12 in Jason Hammel's last 17 starts during game 3 of a series. The Nationals are 35-17 in Strasburg's last 52 starts. Washington is 19-7 in Strasburg's last 26 home starts.
Washington Nationals -136
The Washington Nationals want to make a statement that they are going to be in the NL pennant race for the long haul with the Chicago Cubs. After splitting the first two games of this series, I look for the Nationals to take Game 3 at home tonight behind their ace.
Stephen Strasburg has yet to lose in 2016. Indeed, he's 10-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.070 WHIP in 13 starts. He has recorded a whopping 110 strikeouts in 86 innings. Strasburg has also posted a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in three career starts against Chicago.
Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a top-level team winning at least 62% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 87-34 (71.9%, +41.4 units) over the last five seasons.
The Cubs are 5-12 in Jason Hammel's last 17 starts during game 3 of a series. The Nationals are 35-17 in Strasburg's last 52 starts. Washington is 19-7 in Strasburg's last 26 home starts.
Bruce Marshall
Detroit +174
Chris Sale's fast start this season is now way back in the rear-view mirror, as he has allowed 17 runs and 34 hits (5 homers), plus nine walks over his last four starts covering 22 2/3 IP (6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP). Now he faces a Tigers lineup that has scored 20 runs the past two nights at The Cell and beat Sale -4 on June 4 at Comerica Park. Meanwhile, two consecutive quality start for Detroit starter Mike Pelfrey.
Detroit +174
Chris Sale's fast start this season is now way back in the rear-view mirror, as he has allowed 17 runs and 34 hits (5 homers), plus nine walks over his last four starts covering 22 2/3 IP (6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP). Now he faces a Tigers lineup that has scored 20 runs the past two nights at The Cell and beat Sale -4 on June 4 at Comerica Park. Meanwhile, two consecutive quality start for Detroit starter Mike Pelfrey.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +171 over CHICAGO
Mike Pelfrey is 1-6 with a 4.68 ERA. On the road, Pelfrey is 0-4. Pelfrey did something in 2015 to get the attention of Detroit scouts, who apparently supported Detroit’s interest in him during the off-season. While Pelfrey showed strong command in the second half last year, it came with zero underlying support, 6.0% swing and miss rate, 54% first-pitch strike rate and 39% ball%. He’s doing much of the same this year. Meanwhile, Chris Sale is 10-2 with a 2.87 ERA. Looks like an easy choice, no? We say, “Not so fast”.
Surface stats heavily influence lines and Sale’s surface stats are fantastic. It is under the hood where there are signs of trouble. Sale's swing and miss % is representative of levels below 7 K’s/9 and his first-pitch strike rate/Ball% indicate that his control level is not what it appears to be. Sale is absolutely on the verge of walking more batters. Swing and miss % on Sale's strikeout pitches are down significantly in 2016. His change-up (20% swing and miss the past two years) is down to 12% and his slider (15% the past two years) is down to 10%. He is throwing his change-up less and it's easy to see the apparent correlation between cutter use % and swing and miss/K-rate percentages. A very fortunate BABIP and a favorable strand rate have also contributed to the 1+ run gap between ERA & xERA. Though Sale has lost 2 mph off of his fastball this year, that alone is not a major cause for concern since he has been very effective with less velocity in the past (see 2012 & 2013). The 27-year-old ace has the track record of better things and may very well rebound over the course of the season. However, with fortunate results and fortunate skills there is legitimate cause to think he can't sustain this level, making this a great time—perhaps even the optimal moment—to sell-high on Chris Sale. When we see a total of o9 -116 in a game that involves Sale, alert signs go off. Sale’s 32%/31%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last 38 innings covering six starts is more reason for concern. The Tigers are seeing beach balls right now and they may go deep on Sale more than once. Big overlay.
Detroit +171 over CHICAGO
Mike Pelfrey is 1-6 with a 4.68 ERA. On the road, Pelfrey is 0-4. Pelfrey did something in 2015 to get the attention of Detroit scouts, who apparently supported Detroit’s interest in him during the off-season. While Pelfrey showed strong command in the second half last year, it came with zero underlying support, 6.0% swing and miss rate, 54% first-pitch strike rate and 39% ball%. He’s doing much of the same this year. Meanwhile, Chris Sale is 10-2 with a 2.87 ERA. Looks like an easy choice, no? We say, “Not so fast”.
Surface stats heavily influence lines and Sale’s surface stats are fantastic. It is under the hood where there are signs of trouble. Sale's swing and miss % is representative of levels below 7 K’s/9 and his first-pitch strike rate/Ball% indicate that his control level is not what it appears to be. Sale is absolutely on the verge of walking more batters. Swing and miss % on Sale's strikeout pitches are down significantly in 2016. His change-up (20% swing and miss the past two years) is down to 12% and his slider (15% the past two years) is down to 10%. He is throwing his change-up less and it's easy to see the apparent correlation between cutter use % and swing and miss/K-rate percentages. A very fortunate BABIP and a favorable strand rate have also contributed to the 1+ run gap between ERA & xERA. Though Sale has lost 2 mph off of his fastball this year, that alone is not a major cause for concern since he has been very effective with less velocity in the past (see 2012 & 2013). The 27-year-old ace has the track record of better things and may very well rebound over the course of the season. However, with fortunate results and fortunate skills there is legitimate cause to think he can't sustain this level, making this a great time—perhaps even the optimal moment—to sell-high on Chris Sale. When we see a total of o9 -116 in a game that involves Sale, alert signs go off. Sale’s 32%/31%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last 38 innings covering six starts is more reason for concern. The Tigers are seeing beach balls right now and they may go deep on Sale more than once. Big overlay.
