Wednesday 4/8/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How many majors will McIlroy win this year? Bet on it
Stephen Campbell

World No. 1 golfer Rory McIlroy is coming off a dominant 2014 where he captured two major championships. With the 2015 major officially kicking off on Thursday at Augusta National, sportsbooks have released a prop on the 25-year-old's potential performance this season.

How many majors will McIlroy win in 2015?

None +110
One +125
Two +450
Three +2,000
Four +5,000

Sportsbooks have the pride of Northern Ireland as a +600 favorite to take home the hardware in Georgia this weekend.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Rockets (53-24) at Spurs (52-26)

Date: April 08, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

The San Antonio Spurs are suffocating opponents defensively, but slowing down James Harden's bid to the NBA MVP award may be their toughest test yet.

The streaking Spurs have a chance to further tighten the Southwest Division chase as they try to silence Harden and the visiting Houston Rockets in the opener of this home-and-home set Wednesday night.

The Spurs (52-26) have already clinched a playoff spot while winning 18 of the last 21 games. They've been particularly outstanding during a season high-tying eight-game winning streak, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.9 points behind stifling defense.

San Antonio has allowed an average of 87.6 points and 41.7 percent from the field during that stretch.

"The last 10, 15 games, we've really turned the corner and we're playing solid defensively," forward Tim Duncan.

That was certainly the case in Tuesday's 113-88 win at Oklahoma City. The Thunder shot 40.5 percent from the field, including 5 for 19 from 3-point range, and were limited to 10 first-quarter points.

The Spurs also held Russell Westbrook to 17 points after he averaged 29.2 in the previous six games.

Stellar play over the last six weeks has given San Antonio a chance at the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with four games left in the regular season. The Spurs are third in the Southwest, one-half game behind Memphis and 1 1/2 back of the Rockets (53-24).

San Antonio visits Houston on Friday, while the Grizzlies will be in Utah after hosting New Orleans on Wednesday.

Harden and the Rockets don't appear ready to relinquish the division lead, winning 10 of 12 while averaging 107.1 points - 112.7 during a three-game winning streak.

Harden is scoring 38.7 points per game on 54.8 shooting and 61.5 (16 for 26) from beyond the arc over those three games. The All-Star guard poured in 41 points and connected on 6 of 9 3s in Sunday's 115-112 road win over the Thunder.

"Guys are locked in," said Harden, who has scored 40 or more four times in his last 10 games. "They're focused on what we need to do to win, no matter who gets the credit, no matter who gets the glory."

Harden is getting plenty, however, as he leads the NBA with a career-high 27.7 points per game, the highest by a Rocket since Hakeem Olajuwon had 27.8 in 1994-95.

"That's my job," Harden said. "It's what I do. I go out there and I take the big shots."

He's done that against San Antonio, scoring 26.8 over his past eight meetings. However, his 28 weren't enough in a 110-106 road defeat on Dec. 28, ending Houston's six-game winning streak in the series.

The Spurs won that matchup despite the absence of Kawhi Leonard, who was sidelined with a torn ligament in his right hand. Last year's NBA Finals MVP will be on the court this time, and he's averaging 21.5 points on 63.4 percent shooting - 11 for 18 from long range - in the last six games after matching a career high with 26 in each of the last two.

"He's been absolutely amazing," Duncan said. "He's on a tear right now, and we're riding him. He's not doing it the wrong way. He's taking great shots and continuing to be unselfish, but he's absolutely being aggressive. That's what we need from him."

The Spurs could also use a healthy Tony Parker, whose status is unclear after tightness in his right Achilles forced him to leave in the opening quarter Tuesday. The guard also missed the last meeting with Houston due to a sore hamstring.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lynn, Arrieta get the call for Cards-Cubs Wednesday
Stephen Campbell

Thanks to poor weather in the Chicago area that postponed the Cubs' matchup with St. Louis Tuesday, the two clubs will continue their series on Wednesday. No make up date has been scheduled for the missed game as of now.

As a result of the decision, both teams will be sending different pitchers to the mound. Lance Lynn gets the ball for the Cards in place of John Lackey while Jake Arrieta will take the bump for the Cubbies instead of Jason Hammel.

At the time of writing, sports books had both squads priced at -110.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

St Louis at Chicago Cubs April 8, 2:20 EST

After dropping a 3-0 decision to the Cardinals in its highly anticipated season opener Sunday night the Cubbies look to get in the win column when they resume the series Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Cubbies send Jake Arrieta to the mound who's been tough on the Cardinals allowing three earned runs over 29 1/3 innings to go 2-0 in five starts (3-2 TSR). Cardinals counter with with Lance Lynn sporting a 7-3 Team Start Record vs Chicago and a smart 12-3 TSR during the month of April.

Lynn's numbers make it a challenge going against St Louis. However, Cardinals have not responded with the hurler in this situation. Cardinals are 1-6 in Lynn's last seven starts as a road underdog, 1-4 in game two of a series. Consider Chicago knowing Cubs have won 9-of-11 at home w/Arrieta following a team loss the previous effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Rubber Match'

The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels conclude their three-game set with both teams having notched one victory. Mariners have enjoyed home cooking in this series compiling a 13-8 record before the home audience and will offer Hisashi Iwakuma who has a 7-2 Team Start Record vs Los Angeles Angels. The Halos not exactly road warriors during the month of April with its 4-11 record send out Matt Shoemaker carrying a perfect 3-0 TSR vs Mariners. Mariners success at home vs Angels along with owning the series with Iwakuma oddsmakers have given the nod to Seattle as they've opened $-1.40 favorites. But, before you jump on Mariners a few betting nuggets to ponder. Mariners w/Iwakuma have been poor bets in rubber matches (0-3) and the club is a coin-flip handing the ball to Iwakuma following a team loss the previous effort (8-7). In contrast, Halos have put up outstanding numbers w/Shoemaker following a team victory (10-3) and have a smart 8-1 stretch in road games with the hurler.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets April 8, 7:00 EST

Using history as a guide things may turn out well for Toronto. The Raptors have not responded against the betting line in its last fourteen during the month of April (4-8-2 ATS). Risk becomes even more pronounced in the tilt vs Charlotte. For whatever reason, Raptors haven't been able to solve Bugs the past five seasons posting a money-burning 3-13 SU/ATS record including getting stung in both meetings this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 9:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$6000 - NON WINNERS $400 PER START IN 2014 - 15 OR 2015. AE: N/W $3500 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $25,000 IN 2015. AE: CLAIMING $6000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 QUIK GROOM 2/1


# 1 SAND HICKORY 8/5


# 2 WAYLON HANOVER 6/1


QUIK GROOM is the clear stand out bet in the eyes of the handicapping team. When the trainer Loney puts Wrenn up for the drive formidable things happen. Just check out the 38 win percent. With one of the best drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this gelding out of the contest. Gelding and trainer go together like cookies and milk. They finish in the money 55 percent of their races. SAND HICKORY - The handicapping team will always throw in a entrant from the 1 post here at Northfield Park, keep in mind for your exotics. He has been performing admirably and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the top in the grouping. WAYLON HANOVER - Really liked this gelding's last race. Ran a big 78 speed rating. Major contender. Post 2 has been winning at a well above average statistic, suggesting really good probability of success in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$7500 - NON-WINNERS $3,301 LAST 5 STARTS OR $651 PER START IN 2014-15


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 HOLD ON TIGHTLY 9/2


# 9 THE MUSCLER 12/1


# 7 ADENIUM 5/2


HOLD ON TIGHTLY has a very good shot to take this competition. Is a clear-cut win contender given the 80 TrackMaster speed fig from his most recent race. Deserves a shot given the positive win stat he sports. This horse could get the victory here beginning from the Pompano Park 5 position. THE MUSCLER - The knowledge group can't help but support this harness racer because the internal pace numbers fit well here at Pompano Park. This trainer, and the driver Ranger, go together like peaches and cream. Their results together are great. ADENIUM - Can't forget based on TrackMaster speed figs which have been excellent (87 avg) lately. It's dangerous to consider on class alone, but this gelding has among the most solid class stats of the field of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9700 Class Rating: 91

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 LOOKS TO SPARE 2/1


# 3 WILDWOOD PERFECT 7/2


# 5 IDEAL ALLUVIAL 3/1


LOOKS TO SPARE has a respectable shot to take this race. Win percentage one of the top in this field. Had one of the most respectable Speed Figures of this field in his last contest. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (80 average) at today's distance and surface recently. WILDWOOD PERFECT - He has been racing well as of late while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. In this field, this entrant is in the upper half of earnings per start in dirt route contests. IDEAL ALLUVIAL - Will most likely compete well in the early speed contest which bodes well with this group. Could beat this field given the 91 speed fig recorded in his last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 61

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. REGISTERED FLORIDA BREDS PREFERRED).



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 CHARLIE'S RAINBOW 5/2


# 3 CREATURE OF LUXE 4/1


# 6 CALL ME CLEVER 2/1


CHARLIE'S RAINBOW looks to be a competitive contender. She has been running well as of late while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures. Will almost certainly compete well in the early speed clash which bodes well with this field. Her chances to score are much better today facing this less demanding lot. CREATURE OF LUXE - This filly could improve with second time Lasix. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of solid win percentage - 16 percent - at this distance & surface. CALL ME CLEVER - Wagerers using horses with this jockey and handler combo have done admirably as of late. Must be carefully examined based on the very strong speed rating earned in the last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Keeneland

Race #9 - Rating = 2

#11 First Whippoorwill - Fair odds 8/5
#10 Don't Tell Me No - Fair odds 2/1


Exacta: 10,11 over 1,2,7,8,9,10,11


Trifecta: 10,11 over 1,2,7,8,9,10,11 over 1,2,7,8,9,10,11


#1 is Dancing Vision, #2 is Luce Mia, #7 is Greek Live, #8 is Aghamora, #9 is Makenzie's Magic


Contenders: First Whippoorwill is likely to be the favorite and legitimately so, with two runner-up efforts in February followed by an easy 4 length win last month. She qualified for this 7,500 starter level when claimed before the three big efforts and wouldn't be eligible otherwise, and jockey Hernandez has been up for all 3 "A" races and rides back, the cut back from a mile to 7 furlongs likely to insure another top effort good enough to win.

Don't Tell Me No is also in top form, with wins in 4 of her last 5 races. She too cuts back from a mile and the jockey riding was up for 2 of his wins last year so all signs are go for a BIG effort on this filly who is 7 for 15 in her career to date.

I'm taking a stand against likely 2nd choice Greek Life, at least as a win contender, as he was dumped from a 32K claiming race in November in which he won to the 6,250 level in February. Claimed by Maker for the Ramsey's he can win but there are too many red flags, including the fact he's been away from the races nearly 2 months even off a runner-up finish.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:27pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 MAGINOT LINE (ML=5/2)
#3 STERLINGS AMERICA (ML=8/1)


MAGINOT LINE - The last time she tried this distance she got a fig good enough to win this contest. I like when a racer has dropped in class at least 5-points like this one did last time out and then runs against a similar field right back. Grams must've found the right class level. STERLINGS AMERICA - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. The jockey/trainer tandem of Marrero and Contreras has a strong return on investment together. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should compete well today. I just may give this one a shot. Should improve off last race where she did run off the board, but was within 5 lengths at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1A BIRCH CIRCUIT (ML=2/1), #1 DRINK RESPONSIBLY (ML=2/1), #6 LUCKY CANDY (ML=4/1),

BIRCH CIRCUIT - Hasn't raced or had any morning drills since Mar 14th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. Today's race is 7 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last two months. Not the best of signs. DRINK RESPONSIBLY - Difficult to take this horse at the price after the finish position (eighth) in the last race. Earned a pedestrian speed fig last time out in the Original Gold on April 19th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. April 19th is the last time we've seen this mare around. Have to be a little bit leery. LUCKY CANDY - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with morning line of 4/1. 68/48/24, are the declining Equibase speed figures for this horse.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 MAGINOT LINE is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,600 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 KAZACHKA (ML=7/2)
#3 GLOW GIRL GO (ML=12/1)


KAZACHKA - I really like sprint horses that make a rapid turnaround. This mare is in nice physical condition, having run a strong race on March 29th, finishing second. GLOW GIRL GO - According to well-known handicapping veterans, the stalking-type of race horse is one of the most solid bets in racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SARAH DOUGLAS (ML=2/1), #2 FRENCH SECRET (ML=3/1), #6 RUNAWAY LAUNCH (ML=9/2),

SARAH DOUGLAS - Hasn't been on the Mountaineer oval in the last two to three weeks. Cause for some concern. FRENCH SECRET - Disappointing speed figure last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much in today's event. RUNAWAY LAUNCH - Will be tough for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced contenders list.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 KAZACHKA is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 3:16 PM EASTERN POST

6½ FURLONGS DIRT MAIDENS THREE YEARS OLDS AND UPWARDS $16,000.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE

#7 ALEANDER
#5 MOONSILVER
#6 OFFICER MAHAFFY
#4 YES I'M TRUE

#7 ALEANDER will enjoy a significant speed advantage on the maiden field this afternoon, is the pace profile leader sprinting at, or about, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUNS" in each of his last five outings, hitting the board in four ... in face, he is the only entry in this field showing a "POWER RUN" in this field's collective past performance sheets! Jockey Cornelio Velazquez and Trainer David Jacobson send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 59% of nearly 225 entries saddled as a team to date. He's a grandson of Deputy Minister, out of the Smart Strike lineage, whose progeny have hit the board in 43% of more than 13,000 combined lifetime starts to date.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

We are down to just two Derby points races left to be decided, the Arkansas Derby (G2) at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, both on Saturday.

The Arkansas Derby is worth 100-40-20-10 points to the top four finishers while the Lexington offers just 10-4-2-1 points.

As it stands right now Bolo is 20th in the points standings with 30 points, and Prospect Park is the first out, also having 30 points but less graded stakes earnings.

The connections around the bubble will be hoping horses already with more points wins the races this Saturday. American Pharoah figures to be the big favorite in the Arkansas Derby and is safely in the Kentucky Derby field with 60 points, good for ninth place.

The victory by Dortmund last Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) put some space between him and his stablemate American Pharoah in the early Derby wagering. Dortmund is now the betting favorite at 9-2 while American Pharoah is the co-second choice with Carpe Diem at 11-2.

Carpe Diem made his final Derby prep a winning one by taking the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday.

The other Derby prep was won by Frosted, who took the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct. His odds for the Kentucky Derby have dropped to 18-1.

I will have more on Saturday’s points races later this week after entries come out.

Early Kentucky Derby Odds:
Dortmund 9-2
American Pharoah 11-2
Carpe Diem 11-2
Mubtaahij 8-1
Materiality 12-1
Prospect Park 12-1
Upstart 14-1
International Star 16-1
Firing Line 18-1
Frosted 18-1

Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:20 ET)
2 Bajan Beach 2-1
3 Momma Giovanna 1-1
5 Personal Gold 12-1
6 Hashtagsid 10-1

Analysis: Bajan Beach was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and finished up well for the runner up spot last out against state bred $25,000 foes in her second career start. She was sent off at 9-2 in her debut against tougher and was not a threat in an eighth place finish. She looks headed in the right direction for the underrated Morley barn. By Speightstown, she is out of a Silver Deputy mare that has dropped four winners.

Momma Giovanna prompted the early pace and could not get to the gate to wire winner in the stretch in a runner up finish last out, her first go off nearly a six-month layoff. The blinkers go on for the Pletcher barn that is 20% winners when adding the hood. She does not need to move forward much off her last effort to pick up her diploma here but the price is going to be on the short side.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Clm $50,000 (4:57 ET)
4 Stallwalkin' Dude 3-1
6 Slan Abhaile 5-1
3 Doc Almon 5-2
7 Sky Commander 4-1

Analysis: Stallwalkin' Dude tracked the early pace, was in between foes and did not have enough punch left late trying to get two turns last out on Claiming Championship Day here, weakening to finish fourth. Two back this guy beat Alw-1 foes going six furlongs. The Jacobson barn is 27% winners moving runners form route to sprint. The cut back suits and he looks well spotted here dropping in for a straight $50,000 tag.

Slan Abhaile jumped out to a quick lead and weakened in the stretch to finish sixth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers going long off a two month break. He caught a racing strip that was playing to inside speed that day. He makes his second start off the claim by the Adsit barn and the cut back here to one turn should suit.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 4,6 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #5 Personal Gold 12-1
R1: #6 Hashtagsid 10-1
R2: #4 Bernstein Flambe 15-1
R3: #4 Mizner Park 12-1
R5: #1 Ramham 12-1
R5: #6 Officer Mahaffy 10-1
R5: #3 Come
Back Happy 50-1
R6: #3 Colleen’s Sailor 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 4/8 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,2 / 2,3,8 / 7 / 1,2,3,4 = $24


Best Bet: ES MUCHO (7th)

Spot Play: ANNIE’S MASTER (2nd)


Race 1

(6) BAY ROYAL set a career best last out for new connections and gets a post edge on his main rival. (8) OPENING NIGHT GEM impeccably bred pacer made a costly break last start and now gets a tough post. (4) MJ CRUISER has been able to hit the ticket underneath but is 0 for twenty-six lifetime.

Race 2

(8) ANNIE'S MASTER six-year-old owns good gate speed and should offer a big price from the outside. (7) AL BROWN looks terrible on paper but has beaten better on the year. (3) WILD NORDIC has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 3

(1) WESTERN RANGE pacing gelding gets sent out for a high percentage trainer and is one of few contenders in the race. (2) FOREVER GOOD has had an unbelievable last three starts taking heavy tote action in each after a long run of finishing distanced in every race; threat. (4) U BETTOR WATCH OUT just scored a victory at this level but will need more.

Race 4

(4) CINCINNATI MYSTRES scored at a price in a lifetime mark last week. The mare gets sent out for a very inconsistent trainer but is a threat with a similar effort. (9) FASHION GLIDE is 0 for twelve on the year but keeps the top driver; threat. (7) GET PACKIN has been very consistent but needs to make an easy early lead for his best chance.

Race 5

In a weak and inconsistent field full of question marks (5) SOMEONECALLTHEPOPO will look to steal the race at a price in his first lifetime start. The pacer is one of few with upside in the race. (4) BLACK LACE picks up a huge driver change but has raced very poorly; use caution. (3) TE'S CONMYSOCKSOFF gets sent out for a capable trainer and should be in line for a better trip.

Race 6

(3) THE CLASSIC Z TAM drops back down to the bottom level and has been pacing faster than most of the field. (4) PANDAPOCKET has yet to win on the year but did race better last start; threat. (1) J F COOKIN gets the best post but is best used underneath.

Race 7

(1) ES MUCHO nice looking gelding was impressive last out and will look to make it two straight to kick off the year. (2) UNLIMITED WINNER went a huge three-quarters of a mile last out before coming to a walk. If the 5-year-old can ration out his speed he can hit the ticket at a price. (8) UF CASHNMYCHIPS filly owns a good burst speed but could have a tough time finding a way into the race.

Race 8

(2) RICK'S CROSSROADS drops in class and should be in line for a good trip. (1) FLYING METRO wasn't far off in this class last out and should be closer turning for home. (8) THEY CALL ME GORDY is facing much weaker but needs to find a way into the race; command a price.

Race 9

(2) HALLIN bumps up in class but finds a suspect bunch. (3) STRANGE HANOVER has not won in a very long time but has been knocking on the door and could threaten with some racing luck. (8) MIDNIGHT DRAGON heavy morning line favorite was a dominant winner in this class a few starts back; threat.

Race 10

(7) ACTIVATOR gets sent out for hot connections and will be tough to beat if the pacer makes the top early. (1) TERROR OF THETRACK would need much more to get his picture taken but paced a decent mile last out. (3) CYCLONE ASHORE bumps up in class but showed a decent burst of speed last out.

Race 11

(4) SJ'S BLISSFUL GUY dropped and popped last out impressively. A similar effort puts him in the mix. (1) SAND HICKORY gets sent out first start for a new trainer and picks up a top driver. (2) WAYLON HANOVER has been much better in a new barn; threat.

Race 12

(5) INDEPENDENT SPIRIT will be looking to drop and pop against a weak bunch; short price. (3) OBLIGATIONS pacer makes his third start for new connections and showed some improvement in the qualifier. (4) HERE COMES WHITEY rarely wins but could hit the ticket underneath at a price.

Race 13

(4) SINGIN BLUES picks up the top driver and will be tough with an easy early lead. (6) JACK FINN has been knocking on the door but needs a smooth trip. (2) FIERCE DESIRE picked up a victory at this level last out but needs more; command a price.

Race 14

(5) GET GOIN MEL will be very tough to beat with a smooth trip. (4) BUDDY LOU made the most money in the field last year and went a sneaky good effort last out. (2) BAGEL MAN is just now back in racing shape and owns a decent burst of speed.

Race 15

In the toughest race to handicap on the card (9) FOREVER HAPPY will offer a monster price and just needs a good setup for a shot late. (7) GRAB A CRAB takes a big drop in competition but could need a start over the track; use caution. (4) VANISCAPE races better forwardly and will also offer a big price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (3rd) Perfect American, 4-1
(6th) Don Tito, 7-2


Charles Town (1st) Poppa's Pick, 7-2
(2nd) Goodbye Kiss, 3-1


Evangeline Downs (5th) Slew of Halos, 10-1
(9th) Gayle's Rebel, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Ghost Hunter, 3-1
(4th) J. M.'s Parade, 5-1


Hawthorne (2nd) Affirmed Once More, 9-2
(6th) War News, 4-1


Keeneland (3rd) A. P. Indian, 7-2
(7th) Pramedya, 8-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) He's My Bro, 4-1
(6th) Seattle Prospect, 3-1


Mountaineer (5th) Tiz Today, 5-1
(8th) Vita Desiderata, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (1st) Buckwheat, 8-1
(4th) Flashy Holiday, 6-1


Penn National (1st) Paparazzi Girl, 10-1
(5th) Slinger, 9-2


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) King Gatto, 3-1
(10th) Carolina Dreams, 9-2


Turf Paradise (3rd) Go Max, 3-1
(7th) Comanche Ruler, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Bonus Play New York Yankees

The Blue Jays opened the season with a 6-1 win at Yankee Stadium two days ago, but I think they're in for a loss tonight as they'll take the field once again for the second game of this three game set after a day off Tuesday.

The Yankees will hand the ball to 26 year old Michael Pineda who was 5-5 behind a minuscule ERA of 1.89 last season. He's looked equally sharp in spring training, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA while surrendering only one walk over 19 innings of work. He took the loss in both of his starts against the Jays last season despite conceding only three runs on 12 hits over 12 innings, striking out eight batters. Pineda is likely to get more run support tonight as Alex Rodriguez is back in the line-up after a year-long drug suspension, and Rodriguez is a mighty 7-for-22 against R.A. Dickey who will toe the slab for the visitors. Dickey was 6-9 with a 3.68 ERA over 17 outings away from home last year and surrendered six runs on five hits over five innings of work in his first start of the 2014 season. The Blue Jays are 0-3 when Dickey starts at Yankee Stadium, and I think we're getting a fair price on the Yankees.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

(919) ORIOLES at (920) RAYS 7:10PM

Take: (919) ORIOLES +123

We’re just two games into the brand new season, but it already appears as though the early portion of the schedule could be trouble for Tampa Bay.

The Rays have the dreaded cluster injury report going right now. That’s a term usually reserved for football season, when a team gets afflicted with a number of guys at the same position being sidelined. Unfortunately for the Rays, they’ve got their cluster in the worst possible area for any baseball team. The projected starting rotation is more spectator than participant presently.

That’s very bad news for a team that is somewhat offensively challenged to begin with. The Rays had trouble scoring runs last season, and things have not gotten any better. If you want to single out the issue in microcosm, consider that the Rays hit Asdrubal Cabrera in the #3 hole last night. That’s more than a little disconcerting, it’s downright depressing if you happen to be a Rays fan.

Tampa Bay figures have some success tonight against Miguel Gonzalez. The Orioles righty really doesn’t offer up anything notable, but he’s also generally adequate enough to give his team a chance to win the game.

The Rays will at least have one of the regular starters on the hill tonight, as Jake Odorizzi will get the call this evening. Odorizzi opened some eyes last season with a number of impressive outings. But the righty did not have a good spring, as he struggled with his command and the usual dose of swings and misses wasn’t there.

Odorizzi will need to get a lot sharper in a hurry to put the clamps on this Baltimore attack. The Orioles offense did go to sleep following an early outburst on Tuesday night, but the Birds put up six very quickly and were able to make those runs stand up en route to a second straight win.

I think Baltimore will have a decent shot at putting some numbers on the board tonight. Odorizzi needs to show me his 2014 form and I’m leaning toward that not happening this evening. Gonzalez will be backed by the far more potent lineup and if this ends up being a bullpen battle, I won’t mind taking my chances with the visitors.

My sense is that the Rays are getting overpriced in the early going. This is just not an especially good team currently. The Orioles are already looking cohesive and Buck Showalter continues to press the right buttons on what amounts to a nightly basis. I’ll have to disagree with the price and the early movement on this particular clash. I’ll side with the Orioles to complete the sweep at the Slop.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Wednesday, April 8 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

I’m definitely not a fan of the Indiana Pacers, but as someone who loves the NBA Playoffs I was glad to see Pacers superstar Paul George make his return from that gruesome broken leg suffered this summer on Sunday against Miami. George had 13 points and clearly fired up his teammates. If the Pacers can sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, I could absolutely see them upsetting Atlanta in the first round with George now playing. Here’s a look at every game on a very busy Wednesday.

Raptors at Hornets (+3, 198)

Charlotte was in Miami on Tuesday. The Hornets now are saying that center Al Jefferson might be done the rest of the season, and they remain without forward Cody Zeller and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. I don’t see how, then, this team makes the playoffs. Toronto has dropped two straight high-scoring games, falling 117-116 in overtime on Saturday vs. Boston. DeMar DeRozan had 38 points in the loss, including 18 in the fourth quarter. The Raptors played without Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson. I doubt you see Lowry in this one but maybe Johnson.

Key trends: Toronto is 0-4 against the spread in its past four in Charlotte. The “over/under” has gone over in the past four meetings.

Early lean: Raptors and under.



Bulls at Magic (+7, 193.5)

Chicago’s last chance to have a shot at winning the Central Division ended with a 99-94 loss in Cleveland on Sunday. That was the last time those two will play before what many expect is a playoff collision. The Bulls played again without both Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich. It’s quite possible that Rose does play Wednesday off his knee surgery. Hinrich is day-to-day. Orlando comes off wins in Minnesota and Milwaukee over the weekend. The Magic had lost 12 straight on the road before that. The Bulls have won eight straight games in Orlando.

Key trends: The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 7-2 in the Magic’s past nine at home.

Early lean: Bulls and over.



Wizards at 76ers (+6.5, 191.5)

Washington won a third straight Saturday, 92-83 in Memphis. Bradley Beal scored 20, John Wall had 18 points and 14 assists. The Wizards outscored Memphis 26-5 on the fast break. .The Wizards rested forwards Nene and Paul Pierce. I could see them sitting out again here because they wouldn’t be needed to beat Philly. The 76ers lost a sixth straight Sunday, 101-91 at the Knicks. The Wizards lead the season series with Philly 2-1. They just beat the Sixers in D.C. 106-93 on April 1. Pierce missed that one too.

Key trends: Washington is 2-6 ATS in its past eight in Philadelphia. The over is 9-4 in the Sixers’ past 13 vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Wizards and under.



Celtics at Pistons (pick’em, 199)

Boston won in Toronto 117-116 in OT on Saturday on Marcus Smart buzzer-beating layup. Isaiah Thomas scored 25 points, Tyler Zeller had 20 and Evan Turner added 18 points and 10 assists for the Celtics. Turner has really been good of late. Forward Jared Sullinger, who played three minutes in Friday’s loss to Milwaukee after missing the previous 24 games with a broken left foot, played just over 12 minutes against Toronto. Detroit ended a two-game losing streak Saturday, 99-98 over Miami. Reggie Jackson scored 15 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter, including the winning layup with five seconds remaining. Detroit rallied from 15 down in the fourth. The Pistons and Celtics have split two meetings.

Key trends: Boston is 1-5 ATS in the past six in Detroit. The over is 5-0 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Celtics and over.



Hawks at Nets (TBA)

Atlanta hosted Phoenix on Tuesday. Paul Millsap missed that game with an injury and will sit this one out as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if Coach Mike Budenholzer holds out a few other guys in the second of a back-to-back. I’m sure Brooklyn would be fine with that as it fights for a playoff spot. The Nets bounced back from an embarrassing 131-99 loss in Atlanta on Saturday with a 106-96 makeup game win over visiting Portland on Monday. (go to askthebookie) That game was originally to be played in January but was snowed out. Brook Lopez dominated the matchup against twin brother Robin with 32 points and nine rebounds. Deron Williams added 24 points and 10 assists for the Nets. Joe Johnson barely extended his NBA-leading streak to 879 straight games with a field goal, making his lone basket with 1:55 to play.

Key trends: The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the past five in Brooklyn. The over is 5-1 in the Nets’ past six overall.

Early lean: Love Nets to win here.



Pacers at Knicks (+10.5, 190)

Indiana beat the Heat 112-89 on Sunday as George had 13 points in 15 minutes. He obviously will be on a minutes restriction for a while. In a great moment, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, who coached Team USA when George was hurt, met privately with George. Of course, Coach K was in Indianapolis for the Final Four, with Duke winning its fifth national title on Monday night. This is one of those games the Knicks don’t want to win as they try to inch closer to clinching the worst record in the NBA. They come off a 101-91 home won over Philly on Sunday to end a nine-game losing streak. The Pacers lead the season series 3-0.

Key trends: Indiana is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four.

Early lean: On the fence about the side but huge on under.



Pelicans at Grizzlies (-6, 186)

New Orleans hosted Golden State on Tuesday. I said in previewing Tuesday’s games that it was possible Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday might return for that one. Now you are hearing he’s still experiencing soreness in his lower right leg and could be done for the season. Memphis has only been a .500 team for several weeks. It lost 92-83 at home to Washington on Saturday. The Grizzlies were only 1-for-15 from long range. Forward Jeff Green left the game in the second half with back spasms and did not return. He’s day-to-day.

Key trends: The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in the past eight in Memphis. The under is 5-0 in the past five there.

Early lean: Grizzlies and under.



Cavaliers at Bucks (TBA)

Cleveland won a third straight Sunday, 99-94 over Chicago and is about to clinch the Central Division and No. 2 seed in the East. LeBron James had his first triple-double of the season against Chicago, and J.R. Smith had eight 3-pointers. The Cavs notched win No. 50 and improved to a league-best 31-7 since Jan. 15. Milwaukee’s two-game winning streak ended Saturday with a 97-90 home loss to the Magic. The Cavaliers lead the season series 2-1.

Key trends: The Cavs are 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 7-1 in Milwaukee’s past eight at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Early lean: The only reason I can figure for the TBA is that the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a nasal contusion in Saturday’s game and had to leave for a bit, but it shouldn’t preclude him from playing. None of the Cavs stars seem in jeopardy of sitting out (at least due to injury), but I guess wait and see the number.



Rockets at Spurs (-6.5, 207.5)

San Antonio was in Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Houston has won three straight and not scored less than 108 points in any of them. The Rockets put up 115 in Sunday’s three-point win at the Thunder. James Harden had yet another 40-point game with 41 in a great individual duel with Russell Westbrook — that scoring race is going down to the season’s final day. Dwight Howard looked pretty good in that one as well with 22 points in 23 minutes. The Spurs and Rockets split two early-season meetings, each winning at home.

Key trends: Houston is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.

Early lean: Rockets and over.



Lakers at Nuggets (-10, 208.5)

Los Angeles played the Clippers on Tuesday. Denver dropped a fourth straight Saturday, 107-92 to those Clippers. The Nuggets’ best player, point guard Ty Lawson, was a late scratch with a sore right forearm but looks likely to return. His backup, Jameer Nelson, left in the second quarter with a right hip flexor strain. The loss assured the Nuggets of their first losing record at home since the 2002-03 season. Denver finished 17-65 and selected Carmelo Anthony in the draft that year. The Nuggets lead the season series 2-1.

Key trends: The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 5-1 in the past six in Denver.

Early lean: Nuggets (if Lawson plays) and over.



Kings at Jazz (TBA)

Sacramento hosted Minnesota on Tuesday. It wasn’t likely that Rudy Gay was going to return from injury in that one for the Kings as he recovers from a concussion. He was questionable. Utah last played Sunday in Sacramento, a 101-95 win. Rookie Rodney Hood had 13 of his career-high 25 points in the fourth quarter. Maybe he was fired up from Duke’s Final Four win on Saturday. Guard Trey Burke missed a second straight game with a lower back injury. DeMarcus Cousins, who was coming off back-to-back triple-doubles, had 26 points and 12 rebounds. Gay sat out.

Key trends: The Kings had covered six of the past eight in Utah. The under is 10-4 in Utah’s past 14 at home.

Early lean: Wait on Gay and more so Cousins — there’s talk he might not play on the road any longer this year.



Suns at Mavericks (TBA)

Phoenix was in Atlanta on Tuesday without both Brandon Knight and Alex Len. They won’t play here. It looks like Knight is done for the year. Dallas dropped a second straight on Saturday, 123-110 at home to Golden State. The Mavericks, already without Chandler Parsons because of right knee soreness, lost point guard Rajon Rondo to a hyperextended left knee in the third quarter. Rondo was injured when he collided with Harrison Barnes while Barnes was driving to the basket in the third quarter. The Mavs thought both could return to practice Tuesday, so they might play. The Suns lead the season series 3-0.

Key trends: The Suns are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 8-2 in the past 10 in Big D.

Early lean: Mavericks won’t get swept.



Timberwolves at Trail Blazers (-15, 204)

Minnesota was in Sacramento on Tuesday with more than half the roster questionable due to injury. The Blazers traveled across country for a makeup game in Brooklyn on Monday night and they essentially punted on it, leaving LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Chris Kaman all at home. I would imagine they all play in this one. Minnesota surprisingly leads the season series 2-1.

Key trends: The Wolves have failed to cover the past six in Portland. The over is 8-3 in the Blazers’ past 11 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Blazers and over.