SPORTS WAGERS
Series - OTTAWA +165 over Boston
Wednesday April 10, 7:05 PM EST. In terms of value, this one probably offers up the most on the board because from our vantage point, Ottawa should not be a dog in this series and absolutely should not be a dog in this price range. For starters, the Senators have home ice advantage and were consistently good all season long both at home and on the road. By contrast, the Bruins battled mediocrity all season and almost missed the playoffs altogether. Secondly, Guy Boucher has the Senators playing an effective system that has given the Bruins issues. The Senators swept the season series 4-0. The teams played each other twice in the final weeks of the season and they were huge games both times with Ottawa completing the sweep with a 2-1 shootout win last Thursday at TD Garden in Boston. Psychologically, Ottawa has an absolute edge.
So, once again, market perception comes into play. Boston has playoff pedigree and market familiarity while Ottawa has neither. The Bruins also have recognizable names (and talent) like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, David Backes, Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask. That, too, has influence on the price but Ottawa can match up with great talent of their own that nobody talks about. Mark Stone isn’t good, he’s great. So, too, are Kyle Turris, Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman. Derick Brassard, Alexandre Burrows Zack Smith and Viktor Stalberg give the Sens grit and plenty of secondary scoring.
While one must respect the B’s firepower and experience, they could be in serious trouble without the services of defenseman Torey Krug, who suffered a lower-body injury against the Senators on Thursday, missed the season finale and was seen using crutches on Saturday. Bruins rookie D Brandon Carlo suffered an upper-body injury and missed the final two periods on Saturday. Bruins GM Don Sweeney said Krug and Carlo will not start the series, so the team signed D Charlie McAvoy to a three-year, entry-level contract on Monday. He practiced with the team and will make his NHL debut in Game 1. Zdeno Chara is slower than ever. The Bruins defense is a big liability here, which is likely goimg to be the difference in this series.
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that the Senators are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NHL. Hell, there were even tickets available for their playoff games, which is unheard of in Canada. Ottawa is Canada’s forgotten team but they’re good, they’re resilient and they have outstanding talent throughout along with solid goaltending. At worst, Ottawa is a 50/50 proposition to win this series and once again it all comes down to playing value. That value is resonating from the Sens.
Series - Nashville +171 over CHICAGO
If you’re a hockey fan, you’re probably in a playoff pool of some sort and if you have already attended your draft, chances are that a bunch of Blackhawks went in the first round. If you’re draft is tonight (Tuesday), you’ll likely see the same thing. That’s another representation of the market. What you’re going to read about is how Chicago has haunted the Predators for years and how Nashville cannot beat this team. Nashville won just one of their five meetings against the Blackhawks this season. The Preds also faced the Blackhawks in the 2010 and 2015 playoffs and lost both times but in both cases, the Blackhawks went on to win the Stanley Cup. Yes indeed, this market figures the Blackhawks can't lose but we're not so sure.
These are not the same Blackhawks as those other teams. Chicago has depth and experience but they also have flaws. For one, its defense is slower with both Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook having lost a step or two. Chicago gives up a TON of scoring chances that put them in the same range as the Islanders, Canucks, Stars, Leafs and Coyotes this past season. That’s a major concern that instantly reveals the risk of spotting such a big price with them. Chicago was projected for big regression this year but they rode a hot start to a strong point total. However, they closed the year by going just 9-8 in its final 17 games and that’s when teams were in playoff battle mode. Playing the 28th ranked strength of schedule out of 30 teams, the Blackhawks played .500 hockey (11-11) against top-10 competition and two of those victories occurred in extra time. The Blackhawks are dangerous but they’re also vulnerable. Corey Crawford doesn’t exactly make anyone feel secure either.
The Predators don’t have Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews but what they do have is one of the most productive bluelines in the NHL. Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, and Roman Josi all produced. The quartet of blue liners get a ton of playing time, as each of them averages over 23 minutes of ice time per game. Few teams can match up against their defensemen, which could be a huge advantage for them. Matt Irwin provides solid defensive depth. Their forwards have been heating up as of late too. Their top six can play and match any other top-6 in the game. Also, Pekka Rinne has a .931 save percentage since the start of March. He has gone through some struggles this year and last but perhaps he’s back to form and if that’s the case, it can only help is here. We’re not sold on Rinne but he’s not on the team spotting a better than 2-1 price tag.
Chicago ended up as a #1 seed while the Preds ended up as a Wild Card. The Blackhawks have pedigree and popularity while the Preds are just a playoff team every year that never can get over the hump. The same result from previous years is very possible but we’re suggesting that very little separate the two in terms of their chances to advance. Nashville is an absolute monster in their own rink and if they can find that same intensity on the road then the Preds will shock the hockey world. This series is a lot closer than the line suggests and therefore the price is too appealing to pass on.
