Wednesday 4/1/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 3:20pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 DISORDERLY CONDUCT (ML=7/2)
#6 WOLF CREEK (ML=6/1)


DISORDERLY CONDUCT - Esquivel and Domenosky perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +39 ROI for a rider and trainer. Ran against 'open' company last race out, in with state breds today. WOLF CREEK - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Kirby. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the class to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 QUE FACIL (ML=5/2), #2 TURBULENT WAR (ML=4/1), #7 GHOSTLY CASTLE (ML=6/1),

QUE FACIL - Today's affair is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance affair in the last two months. Not the best of omens. Won't be easy for this mount to beat this bunch off of that last fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the questionable contenders list. TURBULENT WAR - Unlikely that this horse will finish better than he did last time out when placing third. GHOSTLY CASTLE - Doesn't look to be worth 6/1 today. Pass on him this time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 DISORDERLY CONDUCT on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Oaklawn - Race #4 - Post: 2:52pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SHADY CREEK (ML=9/2)
#10 MORGAN'S CURIOSITY (ML=3/1)


SHADY CREEK - I just may give this one a shot. Should improve off last race where he did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the finish line. MORGAN'S CURIOSITY - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the ability to make his presence felt. Don't often see a positive return on investment like +32. This rider/trainer twosome has done well together over the last year. The recent rating of 68 is the best last race speed rating in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BULLERO (ML=4/1), #1 WE HAVE RAINBOWS (ML=5/1),

BULLERO - You think this horse is going to finish first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first often. WE HAVE RAINBOWS - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint contests lately. Improbable to see him doing it in today's event either. Doubtful that this horse will finish better than he did last time when placing seventh.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #4 SHADY CREEK on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 3:16 PM

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $24,000.00 PURSE

#2 UNREPENTED
#3 TALK TO ME
#8 KEEN ON GREEN
#6 GINGEE

#2 UNREPENTED, the overall speed leader in this claiming field today racing at the mile distance on the dirt, takes a class drop (-7), and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, hitting the board in three of those "adventures," facing better company in each of those races than she will face in this field this afternoon. Jockey Angel Cruz and Trainer Gary Gullo send her to the post ... they've "whacked the tote board" at an impressive 79% clip, with their 48% win rate producing a +32% return on investment in the process. #3 TALK TO ME has produced a trio of "POWER RUNS" in her respective last 5 outings, hitting the board in a pair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 4/1 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick 4 play:

4 / 2,4,5,8 / 1,3,7 / 1,4,9 = $36


Best Bet: HAWAII AND SUN (7th)

Spot Play: GET GOIN MEL (9th)


Race 1

(2) UPFRONT CHIP DADDY will look to make it three wins in four starts and showed a big burst of speed last start. (3) GUTH gelding has some upside and comes off a nice effort last out. (1) ES MUCHO comes off a layoff but gets the best post in a weak field.

Race 2

(2) CYCLONE ASHORE looks to be in line for an ideal trip up close. (1) ACTIVATOR veteran pacer picks back up the top driver for a capable barn. (3) BAGEL MAN is just now rounding back into racing shape and could hit the ticket at a price.

Race 3

(2) BROADWAY BOUND needs to be closer turning for home but raced a decent effort last out against better. (4) VISION OF GLORY eight-year old trotter makes his third start back off a layoff and could be primed for a better effort. (3) EMBRACE PEACE burned cash last out and looks to need more; command a price.

Race 4

(2) STRONSKI finds a suspect bunch and could make it two straight with a similar effort to his last. (9) COACH KEN is one of few threats in the race and just missed tiring late last out. (1) BLACK ACE HANOVER drops down to a level and gets the best post; threat.

Race 5

In a tough race to handicap (7) TE'S CONMYSOCKSOFF picks up a huge driver change and should offer a big price. (1) CONTINUANCE pacing mare makes her second start in a new barn and finds a wide open and evenly matched race. (2) COIN OF THE REALM could hit the ticket at a price but is best used underneath.

Race 6

(2) SAY IT'S TRUE raced big last out showing a big late kick. (3) WEST RIVER VICTORY seven-year-old trotter makes his first start in a new barn and has been racing gamely. (1) CINCINNATI MYSTRES will need more to hit the top spot; use underneath.

Race 7

(9) HAWAII AND SUN raced much better last start and faces easier. (1) MATTOX'S WESTERN should be much closer turning for home against a suspect bunch. (2) RIDGE PARK has not been competitive against this competition and has not won in quite some time; use underneath.

Race 8

(4) UNLIMITED WINNER five-year-old trotter could have some things figured out and will be tough to beat with a similar effort to his last win. (1) LU'S NEELY has never won a race on the big circuit but has been knocking on the door. (2) AL-MAR SNEAKY PETE owns good gate speed but has trouble finishing his miles.

Race 9

(8) GET GOIN MEL was really good last out just missing from the same tough post. The pacer would be the horse to beat with a better post. (5) JACK FINN trotting bred pacer has been facing better and can hit the ticket with a good effort. (2) TERROR OF THETRACK has just been racing evenly but drops to the bottom class; threat.

Race 10

(7) THE CLASSIC Z TAM needs to find a way into the race but has a shot with a decent trip. (1) AUTO PILOT rarely wins but his best effort would be good enough. (3) BLUE SCOOTIN MATT has been competitive at this level and should be closer turning for home.

Race 11

(4) LARRY CLARK picks up a huge driver change dropping in class. (9) SHAM'S BIG GUY is very inconsistent from week to week but is capable of jumping up with a big effort. (3) J F COOKIN faces weaker but rarely wins; use underneath.

Race 12

(7) OPENING NIGHT GEM has been getting better with every start and will be tough to beat with a smooth trip. (4) MAJOR MONTE was competitive last out showing a decent burst of speed at this level. (1) STORM CRUISER pacing gelding has room to improve off a nice effort from a tough post.

Race 13

(1) WAYLON HANOVER gets sent out second start for a new barn down in class. (4) HALLIN should have had more last out off an easy middle half; use underneath. (9) DANCE WITH DAN takes a significant drop in class and owns a win at this level.

Race 14

(1) NEELY SPRING bumps up in class but gets the best post and should be in line for a nice trip. (3) GET PACKIN just had enough last out but looks to offer low value; use caution. (4) FASHION GLIDE hasn't been able to get over the hump but does pick back up the top driver; threat.

Race 15

(1) LIGHTNINGINTHESKY finds a wide open race and gets the best post. (4) HERE COMES WHITEY finally gets a better post and should be used aggressively. (3) PANDAPOCKET has been competitive at this level but needs more; command a price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Devilish Grin, 3-1
(9th) G R's Giant, 4-1


Charles Town (3rd) Long Shadow, 4-1
(7th) Devil's Gate, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) One Penny Piece. 4-1
(8th) Lucknow, 8-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Enchanted Facts, 5-1
(6th) Smoke in the City, 9-2


Mahoning Valley (5th) Malibu Wave, 3-1
(8th) Hearts Wild, 10-1


Mountaineer (4th) Boy G., 9-2
(9th) Rockin Rowan, 5-1


Oaklawn Park (1st) Sameasiteverwas, 9-2
(5th) Bundler, 9-2


Penn National (2nd) Deputy Cavalier, 9-2
(6th) Louisville Bound, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (8th) Awesome Attack, 6-1
(9th) Gold Potion, 9-2


Turf Paradise (3rd) Rhythm in May, 3-1
(8th) Two Barrel Tootie, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Clippers (49-26) at Trail Blazers (48-25)

Date: April 01, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

It's not lost on the Portland Trail Blazers that their magic number stands at two for the Northwest Division crown, and they may know by tipoff Wednesday night if they have a chance to clinch.

That simply would be an added bonus for Portland if it can help gain an advantage with a victory in a potential playoff preview.

The Blazers seek a fifth consecutive win as they host the Los Angeles Clippers, who are coming off just their second loss since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup.

Portland (48-25) last won the division when it shared the title with Denver in 2008-09. It locked up a playoff berth with Monday's 109-86 win over Phoenix and now has its sights set on securing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

'I'm not even sure the last time we even won a division title,' said Damian Lillard, who scored a game-high 19 points. "If any year there was a great opportunity, it's this year. We just need to keep playing, focus on ourselves, and everything will work out like it's supposed to.'

The Blazers lead four-time defending Northwest champion Oklahoma City by 6 1/2 games entering Wednesday. The Thunder tipoff against Dallas two hours before Portland begins against the Clippers.

An Oklahoma City loss and Blazers victory would give Portland the division title.

"I'm not a guy that makes games like this really big," forward LaMarcus Aldridge said. "I think we want to win every game and I think every win is important. If we go about it like regular business and fine-tune for the playoffs, I think everything will be fine."

The result of this contest could go a long way in determining home-court advantage in a potential first-round series with the Clippers (49-26), who still could host the first two games despite having a lower seed.

If Los Angeles finishes with a better record, it will have home-court advantage even if Portland has a guaranteed top-four seed by virtue of winning its division. However, in the event of a tie, the Blazers would get the edge if it winds up winning the Northwest, as expected.

The Clippers, who have played two more games, fell into a virtual tie with Portland after blowing a 17-point lead and falling to Golden State 110-106 on Tuesday. They went 9-6 when Griffin was sidelined with a staph infection from Feb. 8-March 13, then lost his first game back before winning seven straight.

Los Angeles fell to the Warriors despite 40 points and 12 rebounds from Griffin. The Clippers won the first two meetings with Griffin in the lineup, but Aldridge had 29 points to help overcome a season-high 36 and 12 assists from Chris Paul in Portland's 98-93 overtime win March 4 with Griffin out.

"Getting Blake back certainly helps them," Blazers coach Terry Stotts said. "We talk about our injuries, they've done a really good job of keeping things going in the right direction when they lose one of their All-Stars."

The Clippers look to bounce back by tying a season high with a fifth straight road win as coach Doc Rivers continues to look ahead.

"I don't put a lot into regular-season games," Rivers said. "That's why I like the playoffs. (Every team) has the same amount of rest, the same amount of preparation, and everything's equal."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Western Conference betting road map: Clippers on offensive roll
By STEVE MERRIL

The NBA's regular season is reaching its late stages and the playoffs are on the horizon. Steve Merril takes a look at four Western Conference teams to keep an eye on this week.

Spread Watch

Phoenix is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but in reality, the Suns' season will likely come to an end this week. Phoenix has eight remaining games, and after blowing a 20-point lead at home in a huge game against Oklahoma City, the Suns will now be playing out the string.

Phoenix goes into Monday night's game in Portland on a 3-game losing streak, and they play at Golden State on Thursday night. The Suns will likely be on a 5-game losing streak after that game, and if that's the case, Phoenix is simply a bet-against team for the remainder of the season.

Total Watch

The Los Angeles Clippers have played fantastic basketball in the month of March, and that is especially true of their offense. The Clippers have scored 107 points or more in six consecutive games while going 5-1 to the Over.

Their scoring ways are likely to continue this week as they play four games against fast-paced Western Conference teams that all have good offenses. The Warriors, Blazers, Nuggets and Lakers are all willing to run with the Clippers, so expect more high-scoring games from Los Angeles this week.

Injury impact

The Houston Rockets have been besieged with injuries this season, and in fact, they rank third in total games missed by players due to injury.

Houston's latest causality was starting guard Patrick Beverley who tore a ligament in his wrist. He elected to have surgery now, and that means he will miss the remainder of the season. Houston will miss Beverley's defense:

"He's the key to our ability to guard a lot of these very good point guards in the West," said Houston GM Daryl Morey.

Playbook

Portland is in pursuit of locking up the Northwest Division and the #4 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Once the Blazers do that, their plan is to get their starters as much rest as possible before the playoffs start.

Portland plays a big home game against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night; they are the current 5th seed. If the Blazers win that game and wrap everything up, be careful backing the Blazers going forward because they will likely be playing their reserves heavy minutes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Contenders vs Pretenders'

At this time of the year, when contenders jockeying for postseason positions meet pretenders playing out the string NBA sports bettors can expect to deal with some large pointspreads. The month of March NBA bettors had to deal with six spreads of 15 or more points. The most recent was Sunday when King James and his Cavaliers handed Sixers' 17 points of offense then barely escaped with a single point victory. That non-cover, the high priced favorites ended the month of March a vig-losing 3-3 against the betting line and for the full season favorites of 15 or more points are just 11-12-2 ATS. Heading down the stretch NBA sports bettors are likely to face a few more big chalks so here are a few pertinent betting stats to keep in mind. Since 2008 favorites of 15 or more during the month of April have a 9-6 record at the betting window. Well to note, Clippers already 4-0 SU/ATS this season laying 15 or more have a 3-0 SU/ATS streak in April knocking off Lakers last year and doing a number on Suns, Blazers in April of '2013. A home-home series vs Lakers along with a pair against Nuggets coming up Clippers could be adding to that record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

-- Golden State is 52-7 when Andrew Bogut plays, 9-6 when he doesn't.

-- Average major league salary will be over $4M this year for first time.

-- On top of that, ballplayers get $100.50 a day in meal money on the road.

-- Serious question: why do college football teams practice in the spring?

-- Gregg Marshall has won nine league titles in 17 years as a head coach.

-- It is supposed to be 61 in Albany tomorrow; last time it was above 50 was December 27. This is not an April Fools' joke, at least I hope it isn't.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play WED UNDER 194 1/2