Craig Davis
Wednesday's Lineup
25 Dime ---- UTEP
10 Dime ---- LAKERS
5 Dime ---- ROCKETS
UTEP --- I backed the Miners the other night on the road in Corvallis and came up a little short, so I'm back on their wagon tonight as a heavy favorite at home to win and cover vs. the Beavers.
I have no doubts we're on the right side of this game tonight for a few reasons. First off, revenge. UTEP realizes this is the last home game they will ever play this year and the place will be absolutely packed. I believe home court advantage is more prevalent in the colleges than it is in the NBA, and for some reason UTEP plays a much stronger brand of basketball in their own backyard. Recent home games include a 9-point win over a very good Northeastern team, an 18-point win over UAB, not to mention nearly upsetting the Memphis Tigers. The Miners have a decided scoring advantage over OSU tonight because of the home floor and will exploit the Beavers' ineptitude as a road dog.
As I mentioned in Monday's analysis, the Beavers had gone to overtime in their last two games (prior to Monday's close affair), and neither of those teams (Vermont or Stanford) excited me as much as UTEP did. The Miners are an offensive explosion waiting to happen, and since Oregon State just doesn’t score a bunch, I can see this game getting out of hand rather quickly. I mean, don't you find it rather odd that OSU was a near pick 'em at home, but now that they travel to El Paso they're nearly 10-point dogs. Vegas is just begging you to back the Beavers as the big pup tonight, but I'm not falling for it and neither should you.
UTEP has covered seven of their last nine non-conference games (including one push) and five of their last seven overall. OSU, on the other hand, has failed to deliver the cash in 12 of their last 14 when getting between 7 and 12 points on the road. This game is going to be ALL UTEP, as they roll to an 81-65 home win.
LAKERS --- No doubt the Lakers have been in a funk at the tail end of this monstrous road trip, having scored just 160 points combined in their last two games (that's 80 PPG)!!! But that all ends tonight in Milwaukee as the Bucks don't know the meaning of defense and will find themselves on the losing end of a 20-point game.
I give the Bucks all the credit in the world for trying to hand in there ever since they lost Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd, but top to bottom this team has no business being on the same floor with the Lake-show. Kobe Bryant didn't shoot well in the Lakers last game (at Charlotte), hitting just 11 of 28 shots... and you can bet your bottom dollar he's going to be more aggressive in his passes tonight to try and get more of his teammates involved. When Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are getting layups, this team wins... and the only way that's going to happen is for Bryant to pass out of expected double teams and find the open man.
The Bucks are riding high after their impressive road win in New Jersey, but let's not forget that they dropped their previous five games and seven of their last eight before that. The Lakers are holding on to their slim chances of catching Cleveland for the best record in the NBA and they'll get a half-step closer tonight with an easy win over the Bucks on the road, 109-91.
ROCKETS --- Without Leandro Barbosa in the lineup tonight (it's not official yet but it's expected), the Suns have no business being favored in this game, no matter where it's being played. Yes, I realize Phoenix is fighting for their playoff lives tonight, but they are a full four games behind the Mavs for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west and even if they win every game the rest of the season I don't believe the Mavs are going to fold. Phoenix, for all intents and purposes, is playing for next year.
There aren't many people in the NBA who are capable of slowing down Shaquille O'Neal, even at his age. But Yao Ming presents a challenge unlike many he's seen this year. Yao is actually taller than Shaq and has enough body mass to at least get in the big fellas' way, burning a few fouls and making him earn some points at the free throw line. Shaq will likely see about 30-35 minutes tonight as the Suns try to keep him fresh for the stretch run. You see, this game tonight will be all about tempo and freshness. The Suns are a veteran team with aging stars while the Rockets are a youthful, more energetic team that can go to the bench without skipping a beat.
In the end, the Rockets will be fresher and prove their worth in a very heated Western Conference. I can't believe I'm saying this, but they look better without T-Mac in the lineup. The road team has covered 13 of the last 18 meetings between these two and the Rockets have covered four of their last five as an underdog. Too much talent in Houston for the Suns to contest with tonight. Houston walks out of the desert with a 111-106 victory.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------------GL GUYS
