dough
RX Member
the obvious is likely . . . take FSU . . . . UNC look ahead classic sandwich game DUKE on Saturday
RX Member
what does everybody think about this n.caro/fla st game is there something fishy about this line fla st best player singleton is out and he does everything for this team and caro is only a 2 pt fav i guess this is one of roots dont make sense plays
the obvious is likely . . . take FSU . . . . UNC look ahead classic sandwich game DUKE on Saturday
dough
RX Member
what does everybody think about this n.caro/fla st game is there something fishy about this line fla st best player singleton is out and he does everything for this team and caro is only a 2 pt fav i guess this is one of roots dont make sense plays
the obvious is likely . . . take FSU . . . . UNC look ahead classic sandwich game DUKE on Saturday
if unc loses the game means nothing on sat if they win there tied with duke in the conference and winner on sat takes all
StatSystems Sports NCAAB Report, Wednesday 3/2/11
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 3/2/11
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
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••• BEAST'S FROM THE EAST COLLIDE ON ESPN2 •••
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At least 10 Big East teams await the call from the selection committee for this year's NCAA Tournament. That group includes Villanova who is in the throes of a horrible slide after sitting pretty as a likely 2-seed for the tournament and a top-10 team just a few short weeks ago. The Wildcats are listed at No. 19 in the AP poll. The latest rankings came out prior to the Wildcats laying a 21-point egg on the road Monday at Notre Dame, the loss leaving 'Nova 11th in the conference standings. Four teams with 9-7 conference marks sit just a half-game ahead of 'Nova currently, and two of them meet Wednesday when the West Virginia Mountaineers host the Connecticut Huskies.
With the Big East Tournament just around the corner, WVU and UConn are two teams jockeying for position. Wednesday night's meeting could go down to the wire. There’s a major logjam in the Big East and this week’s action will go a long way in determining the seeds for the conference tournament. Four teams are currently tied for seventh place and each is hoping to avoid playing on the first day of the tourney at MSG. West Virginia knows it will have to try to contain Kemba Walker as much as possible, which is a lot easier said than done. Walker sits second in the conference averaging 22.8 points per game and can expect to see a lot of West Virginia’s 1-3-1 zone defense.
UConn (21-7 straight up, 13-9 against the spread) hits the WVU Coliseum floor off Sunday's 67-59 victory at Cincinnati, a game the Huskies controlled throughout as 3½-point underdogs. The game snapped a two-game skid both on the floor and at the window for Connecticut, the final score just slipping below the 127-point total to mark the third consecutive under for Jim Calhoun's squad. The victory came on the heels of a disappointing loss at home in overtime to Marquette earlier in the week, a Golden Eagles win that could ultimately help them become the 11th Big East squad to get a dance invitation. Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers are also coming off a Sunday road win, cover and under.
West Virginia (18-10 SU, 11-14 ATS) dropped Rutgers by a 65-54 count, using a 12-2 closing run to easily cover the 3½-point chalk and the game comfortably staying below the 127½ tally. The Mountaineers cleaned up on the glass with a 44-26 rebounding edge and defended the perimeter to the tune of the Scarlet Knights missing 12 of their 13 long-range shots. Sunday's win snapped a three-game road skid for WVU, their previous win on the Big East highway coming at the end of January at Cincinnati. The Mountaineers are 10-2 at home this season, both losses coming to conference foes Pitt, St. John's. Connecticut is 8-4 away from its home courts this campaign, 4-3 in conference play.
The Huskies hung a 73-62 defeat on the Mountaineers last season at the XL Center in Hartford where West Virginia was slight two-point road chalk. The contest failed to reach the 137½-point total. UConn's win marked its third straight over the Mountaineers in regular season play, a string that includes the Huskies' last trip to Morgantown in Jan. 2009 when the Huskies prevailed as three-point pups, 61-55. Tuesday's tip-off in Morgantown is a little past 7 p.m. (ET) with ESPN2 providing the pictures. The network will follow this broadcast with the Big 12 matchup at Kansas between the Jayhawks and Texas A&M Aggies. The Mountaineers close their regular season slate at home this Saturday when they face Louisville. Connecticut will be back home to end the season when it hosts Notre Dame this Saturday.
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••• QUICK HITS •••
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• N CAROLINA @ FLORIDA ST, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
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--N CAROLINA: 9-0 ATS off BB covers as favorite.
--FLORIDA ST: 0-6 ATS revenging loss where opp scored 75+ pt.
Florida State (+7) lost 89-69 at North Carolina Feb 6; Tar Heels shot 56% from floor, Marshall had 16 assists. State was just 4-19 from arc. FSU won four of last five games, but will miss injured star Singleton in this game- they're 7-0 at home in ACC. North Carolina won 10 of last 11 games (9-2 vs spread). ACC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 4-7.
• UAB @ SOUTHERN MISS, 8:00 PM ET
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--UAB: 10-2 ATS in road games.
--SOUTHERN MISS: 15-6 ATS off an Under.
Southern Mississippi (+4) won 75-71 at UAB Feb 2, with +14 edge on boards, offsetting Blazers going 12-22 from arc. Eagles covered last four home games, winning by 13-7-13-17 points. C-USA home favorites of less than 5 points are 14-8-1 vs spread. UAB won five of last six games; their C-USA losses are by 16-3-4-4 points (2-2 as C-USA underdog). The Blazers have played under the total 16 times this season, which is tied for the most in the nation. The under has cashed in on five of UAB’s last six games and the club allows just over 62 points per game on the year.
• MARYLAND @ MIAMI, 7:00 PM ET ESPNU
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--MARYLAND: 8-0 Under Away if the total is 140 to 144.5.
--MIAMI: 0-7 ATS in conference home games.
Maryland lost its last three road games, losing by 4-8-11 points- they allowed 76+ points in four of last five games. Miami lost three of its last four games overall, four of last six at home- dogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in their last eight games. 10 of last 12 Miami games were decided by six or less points. ACC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 4-7 vs spread.
• CONNECTICUT @ W VIRGINIA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
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--CONNECTICUT: 26-12 Under as a road underdog of 6 points or less.
--W VIRGINIA: 6-0 Under off conf win by 10+.
UConn is 4-5 in last nine games, West Virginia 3-4 in last seven. Huskies are 4-4 on Big East road, 3-2 as road dog, losing away games by 15-3-17-13 points. Mountaineers covered four of last six games as favorite- they are 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 30-10-12-11-14, with two losses. Big East home favorites of less than 5 points are 21-17.
• CINCINNATI @ MARQUETTE, 8:00 PM ET
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--CINCINNATI: 4-14 ATS off SU loss.
--MARQUETTE: 15-4 ATS vs. Cincinnati.
Cincinnati won three of last four games; Marquette won its last three, as both teams appear to have won their way off bubble, but you just never know. Bearcats won four of last five on road, are 2-4 as underdog in Big East play, losing road games by 11-15-8-12 points. Marquette is 6-2 as home favorite. Single digit home faves are 37-28 vs spread in Big East.
• MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN, 8:30 PM ET Big 10
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--MINNESOTA: 6-15 ATS as road underdog.
--NORTHWESTERN: 6-0 Over off loss by 15+.
Northwestern (+5) lost 81-70 at Minnesota Jan 26, outscored 31-10 on foul line; Wildcats were 12-39 from arc, 12-24 inside it, but Gophers are 1-7 since that game, losing road games by 12-3-3 points. Northwestern is 3-7 in last 10 games; they're 2-2-1 as Big 11 favorite. Big 11 home favorites of less than 4 points are 10-4-1 against the spread.
• TEXAS A&M @ KANSAS, 9:00 PM ET ESPN2
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--TEXAS A&M: 6-0 ATS Away off SU loss.
--KANSAS: 11-3 Over vs. conference.
Kansas won/covered its last five home games since losing to Texas; they are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games overall. Double digit home favorites are 11-9 vs spread in Big 12 play. Texas A&M won five of last six; they are 2-3 as Big 12 road underdog, losing its away games by 21-9-7 points. Kansas beat Aggies twice LY, by 5 on road, by 13 in Big 12 tourney.
• CLEMSON @ DUKE, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
---------------------------------
--CLEMSON: 0-7 ATS Away off conference win.
--DUKE: 17-8 ATS off ATS loss.
Duke is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 ACC games, but just 2-5 as ACC home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-16-16-24-6-22 points- they have game in Chapel Hill Saturday, better not overlook Clemson squad that is 8-5 in ACC, 2-1-1 as a dog. ACC home favorites of more than 8 points are 8-13 vs spread. Tigers' biggest ACC loss was 75-65 at UNC.
• NEW MEXICO @ BYU, 10:00 PM ET MTN
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--NEW MEXICO: 66-44 ATS after scoring 80+.
--BYU: 0-6 ATS at home off win by 10+.
BYU's leading rebounder Fields is done for year (honor code violation); Cougars aren't a deep team- they lost 86-77 (-2) at New Mexico Jan 29, as Lobos shot 51%, but New Mexico lost four of last five games, is 3-2 as MWC road dog, losing its away games by 1-10-1-6-6 points. MWC home favorites of more than 8 points are 5-14 against spread.
• LONG BEACH ST @ UC-RIVERSIDE, 11:00 PM ET
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--LONG BEACH ST: 7-0 ATS Away off conf win by 10+.
--UC-RIVERSIDE: 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 155+ point.
UC-Riverside (+14) lost 68-55 at Long Beach two weeks ago, shooting 37% in game they trailed by 19 at half; UCR is 7-4 as underdog, 2-1 at home. 49ers won last eight games (6-2 vs spread); they're 3-2 as a road favorite in conference. Big West home underdogs are 9-9-1 vs spread; this is the most points a Big West team has gotten at home this season.
• UTAH ST @ NEW MEXICO ST, 11:00 PM ET ESPN2
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--UTAH ST: 27-12 ATS Away after scoring 80+ pts.
--NEW MEXICO ST: 9-1 Over at home off road loss.
New Mexico State (+14) lost 59-49 at Utah State Jan 22, getting beat on boards 44-28, but Aggies are 6-0 at home in WAC, with all wins by 8+ points. Utah State is 4-2 as WAC road favorite, winning on road by 14-9-13-19-5 points, but they lost last road game, at Idaho Feb 9. WAC home underdogs are 6-7 against the spread this season.
• REST OF WEDNESDAY'S CARD
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--IOWA @ MICHIGAN ST, 6:35 PM ET Big 10 IOWA: 14-3 Over as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. MICHIGAN ST: 7-16 ATS as favorite of 10+.
--PROVIDENCE @ LOUISVILLE, 7:00 PM ET PROVIDENCE: 0-6 ATS Away off SU loss. LOUISVILLE: 8-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less.
--CHARLOTTE @ XAVIER, 7:00 PM ET CHARLOTTE: 14-34 ATS vs. conference. XAVIER: 23-10 ATS as favorite of 10+.
--SAINT LOUIS @ DAYTON, 7:00 PM ET SAINT LOUIS: 7-1 ATS at Dayton. DAYTON: 8-21 ATS off BB Unders.
--MEMPHIS @ E CAROLINA, 7:00 PM ET MEMPHIS: 1-12 ATS off BB games w/ 9 or less offensive rebounds. E CAROLINA: 0-8 ATS at home off conference road win.
--SMU @ UCF, 7:00 PM ET SMU: 6-0 ATS Away off BB ATS wins. UCF: 2-8 ATS as home favorite.
--BALL ST @ W MICHIGAN, 7:00 PM ET BALL ST: 14-1 ATS off conference win. W MICHIGAN: 0-6 ATS off double digit road win.
--ST BONAVENTURE @ DUQUESNE, 7:00 PM ET ST BONAVENTURE: 8-0 ATS Away off double digit loss. DUQUESNE: 0-7 ATS at home off road loss.
--FORDHAM @ LASALLE, 7:00 PM ET FORDHAM: 4-14 ATS as underdog. LASALLE: 5-17 ATS in home games.
--TEMPLE @ MASSACHUSETTS, 7:00 PM ET TEMPLE: 7-0 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. MASSACHUSETTS: 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less.
--RICHMOND @ ST JOSEPHS, 7:00 PM ET RICHMOND: 14-4 ATS in conference road games. ST JOSEPHS: 0-10 ATS at home off an Over.
--GEORGE WASHINGTON @ RHODE ISLAND, 7:00 PM ET GEORGE WASHINGTON: 11-3 ATS vs. conference. RHODE ISLAND: 0-6 ATS at home after scoring 80+ pts.
--MIAMI OHIO @ BUFFALO, 7:00 PM ET MIAMI OHIO: 2-8 ATS off home win. BUFFALO: 5-1 Over vs. Miami (OH).
--OKLAHOMA @ TEXAS TECH, 7:30 PM ET OKLAHOMA: 0-7 ATS Away off BB losses. TEXAS TECH: 11-3 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 games.
--COLORADO @ IOWA ST, 7:30 PM ET COLORADO: 45-71 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games. IOWA ST: 13-5 ATS off home win.
--TCU @ AIR FORCE, 8:00 PM ET MTN TCU: 9-25 ATS if underdog last game. AIR FORCE: 6-0 Over off conference win.
--HOUSTON @ TULANE, 8:00 PM ET HOUSTON: 8-1 ATS off 2 straight conf losses. TULANE: 0-6 ATS revenging road loss.
--E MICHIGAN @ N ILLINOIS, 7:00 PM ET E MICHIGAN: 23-8 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games. N ILLINOIS: 2-8 ATS in home games.
--LSU @ GEORGIA, 8:00 PM ET LSU: 1-8 ATS off loss by 20 or more. GEORGIA: 0-6 ATS at home off conference win.
--OLE MISS @ AUBURN, 8:00 PM ET OLE MISS: 21-9 ATS in road games. AUBURN: 6-0 ATS at home w/ same season revenge.
--TULSA @ RICE, 8:00 PM ET TULSA: 12-24 ATS as favorite. RICE: 2-9 ATS as home underdog.
--RUTGERS @ DEPAUL, 8:30 PM ET RUTGERS: 5-1 ATS vs. DePaul. DEPAUL: 1-8 ATS as home dog of 6pts or less.
--PITTSBURGH @ S FLORIDA, 9:00 PM ET ESPNU PITTSBURGH: 10-3 Under off 3+ conf games. S FLORIDA: 11-2 ATS off win by 10+.
--MISSISSIPPI ST @ ARKANSAS, 9:00 PM ET MISSISSIPPI ST: 2-10 ATS off SU win. ARKANSAS: 5-13 ATS as favorite.
--MARSHALL @ UTEP, 9:05 PM ET MARSHALL: 16-6 ATS in road games. UTEP: 20-6 ATS after allowing 50 points or less.
--UTAH @ COLORADO ST, 9:15 PM ET (TC) UTAH: 2-9 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games. COLORADO ST: 27-14 Over off 3+ conf games.
• ADDED GAMES
-------------
--PORTLAND ST @ N ARIZONA, 8:35 PM ET PORTLAND ST: 1-7 ATS if favored last game. N ARIZONA: 10-3 ATS off ATS win.
--SACRAMENTO ST @ N COLORADO, 9:05 PM ET SACRAMENTO ST: 17-4 ATS off home game. N COLORADO: 8-17 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.
--IDAHO ST @ MONTANA ST, 9:05 PM ET IDAHO ST: 7-18 ATS in conf road games. MONTANA ST: 0-7 ATS at home revenging same season loss.
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
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••• OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT •••
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• TENN-MARTIN VS. TENNESSEE ST, 7:00 PM ET
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--TENN-MARTIN: 7-0 ATS off ATS loss.
--TENNESSEE ST: 6-0 ATS off 3+ SU wins.
UT-Martin is 13-4 vs spread in its last 17 games, covering five of last six on road; Tennessee State beat Skyhawks twice this season, 56-47 (-10) st home, 67-64 on road (-5); State was 14-35 from arc in those games, Martin 8-36. Tigers covered just one of last five games as home favorite, winning their home games by 7-13-2-5-6-9-4 points.
• SE MISSOURI ST VS. E KENTUCKY, 9:25 PM ET
-------------------------------------------
--SE MISSOURI ST: 12-2 ATS Away off loss by 15+.
--E KENTUCKY: 6-0 ATS Away after a combined score of 125 points or less.
Eastern Kentucky beat SE Missouri twice this year, 64-52 on road (-8). 77-64 at home (-12); Colonels led both games by 3 at half. EKU lost last four games, allowing 74.3 ppg- they covered last three games as a home favorite. SEMo lost 10 of last 12 games, but covered four of their last six games. OVC favorites of 7 or less points are 25-27 against the spread.
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Stan 'The Man Szumera continues to make history as one of the Nation's Top Sports Gaming Analysts of all time. The Man's reputation as the ultimate Sports Insider expands by the year. His coveted early NCAA College Basketball, along with his National Basketball Association Selections have literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts in this business today who can equal his big play record over the years.
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••• NOTES & TIPS •••
----------------------------
--BYU forward Brandon Davies has been suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the school's honor code, the university announced Tuesday. Officials were reportedly made aware of the violations on Monday, although Davies' future at the school and on the team remains uncertain. The sophomore was averaging 11.1 points and 6.2 rebounds while starting 26 of 29 games this season for the third-ranked Cougars. Brigham Young is scheduled to face the New Mexico Lobos in Provo Wednesday night. The Cougars lost 86-77 as 2.5-point road favorites to the Lobos on January 29. The defeat came following a big win over San Diego State, which is the same situation BYU is in Wednesday after thumping the Aztecs 80-67 as a 4.5-point underdog Saturday. Oddsmakers opened the Cougars as 12-point home favorites versus New Mexico with the total set at 150 points.
--Despite suspensions, injuries and losing key players from last season, the Kansas Jayhawks are in position to win a seventh consecutive Big 12 Conference title. Point guard and assists leader Tyshawn Taylor is the latest Kansas player suspended. The 27-2 Jayhawks keep winning despite their internal troubles thanks to twin brothers Marcus and Markieff Morris, Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed, the only player to start all of Kansas’ games. Kansas is 10th-best in defending against 3-pointers, but its trademark is offense.
The Jayhawks currently rank fourth in the nation in points at 83.8 per game, are No. 1 in field goal percentage at 52.3 and tops in assists per game at 18.4. If you discount an 84-68 defeat to Kansas State, the Jayhawks are averaging 89 points during their past nine games. The over has cashed in nine of the Jayhawks’ last 10 games. The Jayhawks have gone over in 18 of their 27 games versus lined opponents. The Jayhawks are 60-5 during the past two seasons. Kansas is winning by an average of 18.8 points per game this season. The Jayhawks are 12-2 in the Big 12, one-half game ahead of Texas. The Longhorns are 12-3 in league after losing to Kansas State this past Monday night. Kansas concludes its regular season at Missouri on Saturday.
--Texas A&M is third in the conference at 9-5. The Aggies are led by Khris Middleton, Nathan Walkup and B.J. Holmes. Nobody averages more than 14 points per game, though. The Aggies win with a tenacious defense that surrenders just 60.5 points per game, which is 15th-best in the country. In matchups versus board opponents, the Aggies are 12-7-1 to the under. Texas A&M had won five in a row until losing 58-51 to Baylor this past Saturday as three-point road ‘dogs. The combined 109 points went under the 127 ½-point total. It was only the fourth time in 24 games the Aggies lost when allowing fewer than 70 points this season. The Bears held Texas A&M to 35 percent shooting from the floor, the Aggies’ third-worst shooting percentage this season.
The Aggies, who finish their regular season at home on Saturday against Texas Tech, have a history of finishing strong in the Big 12 under coach Mark Turgeon. Texas A&M went 6-2 each of the last two seasons during the final eight regular-season Big 12 games. The Aggies are 5-1 this season during the second half of their Big 12 slate. Defense has been a trademark of the Aggies under Turgeon, who is in his fourth season. The Aggies are the only team, besides Pittsburgh, to win an NCAA Tournament game in each of the past five seasons. The Aggies held Kansas and Texas to season-low in points last season, although losing 59-54 at home to the Jayhawks covering as 6½-point underdogs. The combined 113 points dipped well under the 141-point total.
--Missouri State junior Kyle Weems has been picked as the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year. Weems, who was honored Tuesday, is the only player in the conference ranked in the top five in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, steals and free throw percentage. The Bears (23-7) won a school-record 15 conference games and are the top seed in the league tournament. Weems averages 16.3 points and seven rebounds and is shooting 50.7 percent, while leading the team with 37 steals and ranking second with 26 blocks. He received all but three of 36 first-place votes from a panel of sports information directors and media. Others on the first team included Creighton's Doug McDermott, Kwadzo Ahelegbe of Northern Iowa, J.T. Durley of Wichita State and Andrew Warren of Bradley.
--Northern Iowa limps into league tournament. For the past two years, Northern Iowa rolled into St. Louis as the top seed in the Missouri Valley tournament and rolled out with a league title. For the past month, the Panthers have played more like pushovers than a powerhouse. Northern Iowa (19-12, 10-8 MVC) has dropped six of its last seven - a stretch coinciding with a season-ending injury to senior forward Lucas O'Rear - and fallen to the fourth seed for the league tournament entering Friday's game against fifth-seeded Creighton. Only Southern Illinois (1993-95) has won straight Valley conference titles and Northern Iowa doesn't look like a team ready to match the feat. In less than 12 months, the rebuilt Panthers have gone from a team that stunned top-seeded Kansas in the NCAA tournament to one whose hopes of at-large bid have long since faded.
Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobson still believes in the basic principles that have guided the Panthers to success. He believes they apply to the league tournament. That's proven to be much tougher without O'Rear, the heart and soul of the defensive-minded Panthers. After winning back-to-back Sixth Man of the Year honors in the league, O'Rear moved into the starting lineup this season to compensate for the loss of frontcourt stars Jordan Eglseder and Adam Koch. The Panthers and O'Rear got it going after some early struggles, winning eight league games in a row to jump to 18-6 and 9-3 in the Valley. But when O'Rear left Northern Iowa's 53-51 win over Illinois State on Feb. 2 with a fractured right ankle, he seemingly took the Panthers' defense with him.
Northern Iowa has allowed 72.2 points a game without O'Rear in the lineup this season after giving up just 56.6 points with him. Their only win since O'Rear went down was at last-place Bradley. The Panthers won't go very far in St. Louis unless they can start playing better defense. One positive the Panthers have going for them is strong guard play. Sophomore Anthony James ranks second on the team in scoring and has hit 41.7 percent of his 3-point attempts. Junior Johnny Moran has a team-high 58 3s and has scored in double figures in five of his last six games. Northern Iowa also has senior point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who was named the Most Outstanding Player in last year's league tournament.
Ahelegbe is averaging a career-high 14 points per game and was averaging 20 over his last four outings before a substandard effort in Saturday's loss at Creighton. Ahelegbe scored 24 points in last season's win over Wichita State in the league title game, and Northern Iowa might need him to replicate such a feat three days in a row to pull off the unlikely three-peat. "He's led us to some pretty special places," Jacobson said. "To know that we've got a senior that we know has played very well in St. Louis and has helped us win a lot of games there the past two years, for us that certainly helps."
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Stat/Systems Sports is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet to date. Our popular Stat/Sheets, along with our daily Stat/Systems Reports are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. “Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is what Stat/Systems Sports is all about, call us toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 and start winning today, you’ll be real glad you did” -Stan 'The Man!
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••• MID-MAJORS CONFERENCE TOURNEYS •••
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The big boys are still slugging it out and bringing their regular season schedules to a close. Mid-majors, meanwhile, will begin conference tournaments this week with many of the winners ultimately the only schools from their leagues getting a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Here's a quick look at three middies, including the Ivy League which still has some regular season left.
• COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION - (Richmond, VA)
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Action begins Friday, March 4, with the top-4 teams from the regular season getting a bye in the opening round. That quartet is made up of George Mason, the top seed in the tourney with a 16-2 CAA mark, Old Dominion, Hofstra and Virginia Commonwealth. George Mason and Old Dominion, ranked 1-2 in the recent mid-majors top 25, are expected to meet in the CAA Championship which will be played Monday, March 7. The Patriots (25-5 straight up, 21-7 against the spread) captured the hearts of bettors early this season but will enter the conference tourney off consecutive losses at the window. George Mason had a 14-game run covering the number before falling short as chalk to Northeastern and Georgia State to close the regular season schedule. A 15-game win streak on the floor is intact entering the tournament, the Patriots' last loss a 69-65 decision at Old Dominion (24-6 SU, 13-13 ATS) on Jan. 8 as six-point underdogs. That game ironically started the 14-game run against the NCAA odds.
• MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE - (St. Louis)
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It's 'Arch Madness' at Scottrade Center beginning this Thursday (March 3) when the MVC begins its postseason tourney. The Missouri State Bears earned top seed honors by virtue of their 69-64 home win over Wichita State last Saturday, with the Shockers seeded second. Both teams ended the season with 23-7 overall records straight up. The Bears, 15-3 in conference action, finished 14-13-2 against the spread with Wichita State 14-4 on the MVC slate and 13-12 ATS. The top six teams in the conference get a first round bye. Southern Illinois and Illinois State will play Thursday to see who draws top-seed Missouri State on Friday. Drake and Bradley are also in action on Thursday, the winner taking on Wichita State the following day. The rest of Friday's action has No. 5 Creighton against No. 4 Northern Iowa and No. 3 Indiana State taking on No. 6 Evansville. Semifinal action will begin at 11:30 a.m. Saturday with the MVC Championship set for 11 a.m. Sunday, CBS providing the telecast.
• WEST COAST CONFERENCE - (Las Vegas)
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A rubber match looms between St. Mary's and Gonzaga in this year's WCC Tournament at Sin City's Orleans Arena. Both teams will have byes into the semifinals, with the Gaels seeded first and the Bulldogs second. Play gets underway Friday with No. 5 Portland meeting No. 8 Loyola Marymount. That game is followed by No. 6 Pepperdine versus No. 7 San Diego. San Francisco and Santa Clara will be in action as the 3-4 seeds respectively the following day. The Dons get the winner of the 6/7 game with the Broncos taking on the 5/8 victors. Assuming all goes according to plan, St. Mary's and Gonzaga would tip at 6 p.m. (PT) on Monday, March 7, with ESPN broadcasting. The two rivals split their regular season meetings, each recording underdog upsets on each other's home floor. Gonzaga is seeking a 13th-straight trip to the NCAA Tournament while St. Mary's is looking to return following last year's loss to Baylor in the Sweet 16 round.
• IVY LEAGUE
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There's no postseason tourney for Conference Brainiac, but that doesn't mean there's not a default conference championship tilt on the slate. Saturday's Princeton, Harvard matchup (March 5) in Boston is a big one for determining whether the Ivy League gets one or two teams into the NCAA Tournament. Princeton (22-5 SU, 12-11 ATS) can claim the league crown with a road win. Make that a road win after another road win. The Tigers are in Hanover, NH, the night before to take on Dartmouth. Harvard (21-5 SU, 9-10 ATS) has Penn at home in Lavietes Pavilion the night before its battle with Princeton, so the Crimson also can't afford to look too far ahead to the Tigers on Saturday. The Tigers will also have one more game after their battle at Harvard, a trip to Penn; Princeton was taken to overtime at home by the Quakers on Feb. 8. A loss by the Tigers at both Harvard and Penn could give the eventual automatic bid to the Crimson. Princeton picked up a 65-61 win at home when it met Harvard on Feb. 4. Oddsmakers chalked the Tigers 2½ in that one, and it was a near dead-even match statistically, the bottom line being six fewer turnovers for Princeton.
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••• NCAAB TOP-25 FAVORITES & FRAUDS •••
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The college basketball Top 25 poll is certainly fun to look at and make your own judgments. But the fact is any ranking has just as much to do with politics and name recognition than it does with hoops prowess. What's more important for bettors is to examine Las Vegas power rankings. After all, Vegas makes numbers on every game and those numbers are backed not by publicity, politics or public perception, but by money. Each week here in our Stat/Systems Report, we’ll take a look at the Top 25 polls and expose where the rankings went wrong and where college hoops bettors can find hidden value in these big-name programs, either betting on or against them.
• MOST OVERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: FLORIDA (22-6 SU; 10-13-1 ATS)
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A 6-1 run has the Gators firmly entrenched in the AP Top-25, currently ranked 14th in the nation. I'm not buying it. First of all, I have Florida ranked 29th in my latest power rankings. While I do differ from the AP poll often, I am usually not far off from the RPI rankings, but this is one case where I am. The RPI has Florida ranked even higher than the AP at #11. While they are on a 6-1 run, the Gators could very easily be 3-4 in their last seven games. Home court hasn't meant a whole lot to this team of late. They escaped with a one point win over Tennessee. And the Gators barely slipped by Kentucky in this season's first meeting, a 70-68 win, while having to go to overtime to beat Vanderbilt in Gainesville. Florida has their Big Dance ticket punched already. But I wouldn't put money on them in their final two regular season games, hosting Alabama on Tuesday before playing in Nashville against Vanderbilt this weekend. Florida should get past Alabama, at least SU. But I wouldn't be shocked if they finish the season on a 0-2 slide. Florida plays hard, but they have been quite fortunate down the stretch. The Gators are this week's overrated Top-25 team.
• MOST UNDERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: KENTUCKY (20-8 SU; 10-12-1 ATS)
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We find Kentucky ranked 20th in this week's AP Top-25. I feel this team is underrated by at least six or seven spots in the rankings. While Coach Calipari began the season with some young faces, the team has played well at both ends of the court for most of the campaign. Kentucky ranks 11th in FG percentage allowed at 38-percent. Yet at the same time, the Wildcats are also getting it done, sacrificing nothing on the offensive end where they rank 20th in scoring. Kentucky can be a nightmare for teams that find the deep perimeter tough to defend. The 'Cats head into this week's action ranked 14th in the nation in 3-point shooting, and they hit over 46-percent of their shots overall. A lack of depth may eventually cost this team in the Big Dance, but they have several scoring "outs" that could springboard them into a deep tourney run. Kentucky has four players averaging between 11 ppg and 17.7 ppg. No less than three players make more than 40-percent of their 3-point attempts. And two players average about 9 rpg. Quality shooting from the perimeter; the ability to drive the paint and finish, dish, or draw fouls; and a strong inside game on the boards! Yet here they are, just 20th in this week's standings. I expect a jump in the polls after closing the season this week with a home game against Vanderbilt and a road tilt at Tennessee. Kentucky is this week's most underrated ranked team.
• TEAM THAT DESERVES TO BE RANKED: KANSAS STATE (21-9 SU; 11-13 ATS)
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Many preseason magazines had Kansas State going to the Final Four, or at least the Elite-8 this season. But thanks to injuries and some off the court turmoil, Frank Martin's team looked NIT-bound not all that long ago. But the Wildcats have won five in a row and seven of their last eight. They have beaten Kansas in Manhattan, and now own road wins over Texas and Nebraska. K-State led Texas throughout the second half on Monday night never looking in danger of losing the contest. They did the same to Nebraska, and whipped Kansas for almost an entire 40 minutes. Texas got physical with Jacob Pullen on Monday, but the team's leading scorer picked up his game in the second half despite a wrist-injury. But the 'Cats showed they have others who can pick up the slack, including Curtis Kelly and Rodney McGruder. Kansas State is surging at the right time. They're making 48-percet of their FG attempts during the run, including 44-percent from the arc. This is a team that no one is going to want to face through the first couple of rounds of March Madness. Kansas State is this week's most underrated Top-25 team, but must stay away from a potential flat spot when they host Iowa State on March 5.
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••• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS ••• - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situational Systems for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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5* SAINT LOUIS +4 - (92.6%)
4* SE MISSOURI ST +6.5 - (84.6%)
4* CHARLOTTE +9.5 - (84.2%)
4* BUFFALO -400 - (83.7%)
4* UC-RIVERSIDE +4.5 - (83.3%)
4* N ILLINOIS -1 - (81.8%)
4* FORDHAM/LASALLE OVER 72.5 - (81.2%)
4* FORDHAM +11 - (80.5%)
4* UTEP -250 - (80.3%)
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (SAINT LOUIS) - off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent.
(25-2 since 1997.) (92.6%, +22.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 29.9 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
--PLAY ON - Neutral court teams (SE MISSOURI ST) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (15-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.8
The average score in these games was: Team 64.4, Opponent 62.8 (Average point differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 7 (30.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (42-23).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (XAVIER) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(32-6 since 1997.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 28.4, Opponent 31.2 (Average first half point differential = -2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (BUFFALO) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off a home win against a conference rival.
(118-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +65.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -226.5
The average score in these games was: Team 72.7, Opponent 65.1 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-11, +38.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (268-81, +57.9 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (LONG BEACH ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games.
(25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.1, Opponent 28.8 (Average first half point differential = +1.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-29).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - poor shooting team - shooting <=42% on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(27-6 since 1997.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (26-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 68.7, Opponent 62.6 (Average point differential = +6.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (45.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (FORDHAM) - after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.2, Opponent 42.8 (Total first half points scored = 77.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (38-28).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (FORDHAM) - after allowing 75 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less.
(33-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (3-39 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 15.3
The average score in these games was: Team 65, Opponent 74.9 (Average point differential = -10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (43.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (68-46).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (UTEP) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more.
(269-66 since 1997.) (80.3%, +109.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -241.4
The average score in these games was: Team 71.9, Opponent 64.5 (Average point differential = +7.4)
The situation's record this season is: (11-8, -11.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (79-19, +28.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (114-30, +36.6 units).
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NOTE: College Basketball betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand College Basketball Lines, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these College Basketball Lines with the public in mind. They know the general public is going to bet on the popular teams every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like this.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best College Basketball Lines. Many different books release different numbers and College Basketball Lines always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best College Basketball Lines, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
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*** #721 NORTH CAROLINA (-2, O/U 137) @ #722 FLORIDA STATE ***
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After a sluggish start to the season, North Carolina may have a chance to win the ACC regular-season crown outright with a victory this weekend over its biggest rival. Roy Williams, however, has warned his players about looking too far ahead. Before turning their attention to that showdown, the 13th-ranked Tar Heels are first focused on running their winning streak to six at Florida State on Wednesday night. North Carolina (22-6, 12-2) and Duke are tied atop the ACC and will close out the regular season against one another Saturday in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels lost the first meeting in Durham 79-73 on Feb. 9, but have reeled off five straight wins since.
They pulled even with the Blue Devils atop the standings with an 87-76 victory over Maryland on Sunday, one day after Virginia Tech upset then-No. 1 Duke. Although North Carolina was picked to finish third in the ACC one season after going 5-11 in the league, its chance to win the conference title is still a bit surprising considering it lost three of its first seven games overall. It only has three losses in 21 games since. "We've been working all season to make sure we get to this position," said freshman Harrison Barnes, who had 21 points against the Terrapins.
"And it's been a struggle. We definitely had times where we didn't think we could do it. But now we're in this position and we just have to seize the moment." Williams isn't quite ready to think about the possibility of winning the regular-season crown and earning the top seed in the ACC tournament. "It would mean a great deal," he said, "but we better be thinking in terms of Florida State and not be thinking about Duke." The Tar Heels, however, had no trouble in their first meeting of the season with the Seminoles (20-8, 10-4), beating them 89-69 in Chapel Hill on Feb. 6.
Barnes led all scorers with 17 points, while Tyler Zeller and John Henson each scored 16 and Dexter Strickland added 15. North Carolina frustrated Florida State's defense, which leads the nation in opponent field goal percentage (36.1), but allowed season highs in points and shooting (55.7 percent) against the Tar Heels. The Seminoles have been much better on defense since, yielding an average of 64.4 points on 34.6 percent shooting in winning four of their last five games. Still, they could run into trouble again trying to shut down Zeller and Barnes, who combined for 46 points against Maryland.
Florida State's offense might also have problems with leading scorer Chris Singleton slated to miss his fourth straight game with a broken foot. Singleton, who is expected to return for the ACC tournament, had a team-best 15 points at North Carolina last month. Singleton's replacement, freshman Okaro White, stepped up for the Seminoles on Saturday, hitting a key 10-foot jumper with 31 seconds left in a 65-59 victory over Miami.
White led Florida State with seven rebounds and matched Deividas Dulkys with a team-high 17 points. "He stepped it up when we needed him," Dulkys said about White. "He's a very good player. You can't count him as a freshman." This will be the Seminoles' final game in Tallahassee this season, and they have a chance to go 8-0 at home in ACC play for the first time in school history. They upset top-ranked Duke at the Tucker Center on Jan. 12, but have lost their last four meetings with the Tar Heels there.
--FLORIDA ST is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 65.9, OPPONENT 63.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
The average score was N CAROLINA 77.5, OPPONENT 66.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - N Carolina by 1; O/U 138
*STAN'S POWER LINE - N Carolina -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - N Carolina -0.83
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better.
(52-21 since 1997.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-28)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 70.5, Opponent 69.3 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (25.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-10).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call us toll-free in the office at 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” –Stan ‘The Man
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*** #727 PROVIDENCE @ #728 LOUISVILLE (-13.5, O/U NA) ***
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While its hopes of claiming a share of the regular-season Big East championship remain slim, Louisville is closing in on earning a double-bye in the conference tournament for the second time in three seasons. Looking to avenge January's loss to Providence, the No. 11 Cardinals will attempt to go undefeated at home in conference play for the first time since joining the Big East in 2005 when the teams meet Wednesday night. Louisville (22-7, 11-5), which won the regular-season conference championship in 2008-09 en route to earning a double-bye and winning the Big East tournament title, is tied with No. 15 St. Johns for third place.
The Cardinals and Red Storm sit 1 1/2 games back of No. 8 Notre Dame and two behind No. 4 Pittsburgh with two games to play. Louisville defeated the Panthers 62-59 in overtime Sunday, improving to 8-0 in conference play at home. The Irish have one game remaining while Pitt has two. "I'd rather play," coach Rick Pitino said of earning a double-bye. "To tell you the truth, I think we'd rather play because of all the time we've missed, playing helps us. "Certainly, getting a double-bye with what we thought before the season is a tremendous accomplishment for the guys. But, we would rather play."
Junior guard Kyle Kuric, who scored five of his 12 points in overtime, put Louisville up five with less than one second remaining and seemed to have clinched the game before a male cheerleader grabbed the ball and tossed it in the air, resulting in a delay of game technical foul. The Panthers made their two free throws but couldn't get off a potentially game-tying heave. Louisville will be short-handed Wednesday after sophomore forward Rakeem Buckles tore his right ACL on Sunday. Guard Russ Smith will also miss the game with a concussion. Preston Knowles was held to eight points on 3-of-12 shooting versus Pittsburgh and is averaging 9.3 points, 5.0 less than his team-leading mark on 27.1 percent shooting in his last four games.
Despite his recent struggles, the senior guard earned high praise from his coach. "I think there's a lot of moments with Preston," Pitino said. "It’s been a joy to coach him between the lines. He gives you everything he has all the time. He's been one of the best captains I've had because he's selfless (and) cares about the team winning." Knowles was held to a season-low two points on 1-of-8 shooting in a 72-67 loss Jan. 22 at Providence, and he will look to bounce back in front of the home crowd on senior night. The Cardinals had won nine straight against the Friars before Marshon Brooks, who ranks second in the country with 25.1 points per game, scored 27.
"Obviously we're playing a team that we lost to earlier in the year," Pitino said. "We were able to contain Marshon Brooks for a half and then in the second half he really hurt us. We've gotta do better things and let our players understand that playing at home on senior night does not gain a victory, it's your defense and your offense." Providence (14-15, 3-13) has lost 15 straight on the road dating to last season and hasn't beaten a Top 25 opponent as the visiting team since defeating then-No. 4 Connecticut 66-56 on Jan. 24, 2004. The Friars fell 86-62 to Marquette on Sunday for their sixth straight loss as Brooks followed a 52-point performance against Notre Dame with 17.
--PROVIDENCE is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was PROVIDENCE 32.0, OPPONENT 40.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--PROVIDENCE is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game this season.
The average score was PROVIDENCE 31.6, OPPONENT 43.3 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Louisville by 15; O/U 149
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Louisville -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Louisville -14.17
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (PROVIDENCE) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 15 points or more.
(28-6 since 1997.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (10-24)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14.4
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 76.1 (Average point differential = -6.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (55.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (LOUISVILLE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off 3 straight losses against conference rivals.
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 68.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.8, Opponent 29.9 (Total first half points scored = 63.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (50-21).
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*** #753 CONNECTICUT @ #754 WEST VIRGINIA (-5, O/U 131) ***
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There's a four-way tie for seventh place in the powerful Big East. Those teams are desperately trying to avoid playing on the first day of next week's conference tournament. West Virginia and No. 16 Connecticut are in that group, and they'll meet Wednesday night in Morgantown. The Mountaineers (18-10, 9-7), Huskies (21-7, 9-7), Marquette and Cincinnati are all tied for seventh. The top eight teams avoid playing Tuesday when the Big East tournament begins at Madison Square Garden. Wednesday's action will be pivotal since the Golden Eagles host the Bearcats in a game that begins an hour after this one starts.
"It's hard to tell what's gonna happen," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. "We're tied with Connecticut, we play Connecticut. The winner of that's going to be a game up on the other one. "Marquette plays Cincinnati. I think it's a four-way tie." Huggins' team gets its first look at Kemba Walker, who is second in the Big East with 22.8 points per game. The coach, however, employs a 1-3-1 zone defense that has limited opponents to 28.1 percent shooting from 3-point range for one of the best marks in the nation.
The Huskies have seen a steady diet of zone to contain Walker and are shooting 32.6 percent on 3-pointers in Big East play for the fifth worst mark in the conference. UConn, though, turned in its best 3-point shooting effort in a Big East game by making 10 of 19 attempts in Sunday's 67-59 win at Cincinnati. Freshmen Jeremy Lamb and Roscoe Smith each made three 3s and combined for 28 points. "I thought that we really got great combinations from tonight," coach Jim Calhoun said. "The key tonight was just to come out and play some basketball, advance our seeding, and get towards the NCAA tournament."
Calhoun was back on the sideline after missing Thursday's 74-67 overtime loss to Marquette because he was with his family after the death of his sister-in-law. Sunday's win capped a tumultuous week in which Calhoun admitted mistakes that led to recruiting violations that have resulted in numerous sanctions. "I've had some very good teams over the last few years," Calhoun said Sunday. "This is one of my favorite teams of all-time." The hot shooting against the Bearcats came on the heels of UConn's worst Big East 3-point shooting performance, 5 of 22 against Marquette. West Virginia is unsure what to expect.
"You watch the Marquette game, they had shots, they just didn't make them," Huggins said. "You watch the Cincinnati game, they made them. Roscoe Smith goes 1 for 8 against Marquette and he's what, 3 for 4 from 3 against Cincinnati. I don't know how you explain that, same shots." West Virginia, 10-2 at home, is enduring its own shooting woes at 37.6 percent overall while splitting its last four games. Darryl Bryant's 15 points helped the Mountaineers overcome 39.6 percent shooting in Sunday's 65-54 victory at Rutgers. The Huskies have won nine of the last 11 meetings, including four of five on the road.
--W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 71.2, OPPONENT 64.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CONNECTICUT is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 29.2, OPPONENT 29.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - W Virginia by 4; O/U 134.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - W Virginia -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - W Virginia -3.73
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(80-43 since 1997.) (65.0%, +32.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.9
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 67.6 (Total points scored = 137.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 61 (48% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (22-20).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-26).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (64-34).
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*** #779 PITTSBURGH (-11, O/U 124.5) @ #780 SOUTH FLORIDA ***
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Pittsburgh won't have any margin for error as it tries to win the outright Big East crown for the first time in seven seasons. The fourth ranked Panthers play their final road game Wednesday night when they try to hand South Florida a 12th straight loss against a ranked opponent. Pittsburgh (25-4, 13-3) is one-half game ahead of No. 8 Notre Dame for first place in the Big East. The Fighting Irish have the tiebreaker by virtue of their 56-51 victory Jan. 24. The Panthers can ensure their first title since 2003-04 by beating South Florida (9-20, 3-13) on Wednesday and struggling No. 19 Villanova on Saturday.
Pittsburgh would have been in position to clinch in Florida if not for a 62-59 overtime loss at then-No. 16 Louisville on Sunday. The Panthers came up short after shooting 56.0 percent in the second half to force overtime following a 32.0 percent effort over the first 20 minutes. "I like how we responded in the second half," coach Jamie Dixon said. "I thought it was something we could build upon. We attacked the zone and were getting good shots." Ashton Gibbs, playing his third game since missing three with an MCL injury in his left knee, had 14 points but shot 3 of 11.
The Panthers have lost two of three games since getting their leading scorer back after going 3-0 in the stretch without him. "Actually thought Gibbs got good shots," Dixon said. "Sometimes shots fall and sometimes they don't. But he had 14 points. He was 2 of 6 from 3-point land and had good looks. I don't want to read too much into that." Gibbs leads the Big East with a 46.1 percent mark on 3-pointers, although he is 3 for 11 in his last two games. One of the victories Pitt posted without Gibbs was a 67-55 home win over South Florida on Feb. 16. The final margin was deceiving since the Bulls were within two points with eight minutes left.
The Panthers held a 26-9 edge in rebounds in the second half to finish with a 40-18 advantage. Nasir Robinson grabbed 10 boards and Gary McGhee and Gilbert Brown each had seven. Those players also helped limit Bulls leading scorer Augustus Gilchrist to 10 points. Gilchrist, averaging 13.0 points, had a career-high 32 in Saturday's 86-76 win at DePaul that snapped a six-game skid. "He is definitely a rhythm guy," coach Stan Heath said about Gilchrist. "He has the ability to score around the basket, face up and hit 3s.
He's got a lot of firepower to his game, and our guys did a good job of finding him. They knew he was hot." Gilchrist was out with a sprained ankle in South Florida's 70-61 upset at home of Pitt last Jan. 31. Dominique Jones, currently with the Dallas Mavericks, scored 37 to lead the Bulls. South Florida has suffered without Jones, averaging a Big East-worst 62.3 points. The Bulls have dropped all nine games against ranked opponents this season, losing four at home by an average of 16.0 points.
--PITTSBURGH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 73.9, OPPONENT 59.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite or pick vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.6, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Pittsburgh by 13; O/U 129.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -12.33
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (S FLORIDA) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=42% on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(90-50 since 1997.) (64.3%, +35.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 126
The average score in these games was: Team 66, Opponent 57 (Total points scored = 123.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 66 (48.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-9).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-22).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (68-40).
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*** #781 TEXAS A&M @ #782 KANSAS (-13.5, O/U 138) ***
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Some recent poor play by the Big 12's other top 10 team has left Kansas in prime position to claim its seventh consecutive conference title. However, with a tough final week ahead, the Jayhawks understand accomplishing that feat will not be easy. The second-ranked Jayhawks can clinch a share of the regular-season Big 12 championship with a sixth straight victory over No. 24 Texas A&M on Wednesday night at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas (27-2, 12-2) has averaged 87.7 points and shot 54.3 percent while winning three straight since losing at Kansas State on Valentine's Day.
That run, combined with seventh-ranked Texas losing three of four games, has the Jayhawks one-half game ahead of the Longhorns atop the Big 12 standings. Texas finishes the regular season with a tough test at Baylor on Saturday. After facing the Aggies (22-6, 9-5), Kansas plays at No. 22 Missouri on Saturday. "Our two games, it may be the toughest week we've had all year," Kansas coach Bill Self told the school's official website. "Those are hard games." With senior night on tap, Self expects his team to be focused as they try to nail down No. 1 seeds in both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments.
"Every year, we go in wanting to win the Big 12 and win the Big 12 tournament and then have your best opportunity to be a No. 1 seed," senior guard Tyrel Reed said. "We've got two more games and I guess kind of now the ball's in our court and we've got to take care of business." Though Kansas is 16-1 all-time against the Aggies and won the last five by an average of 12.2 points, Self won't take anything for granted. Texas A&M has won five of six overall and needs a win to secure the No. 3 seed in next week's Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, Mo. "I think if we can approach it as just keep trying to get better, we will get better,"
Texas A&M coach and former Jayhawk guard Mark Turgeon told his school's official website. "We will just stay confident. We should be a confident team. We've won five out of six so we should be a very confident team right now. "We haven't played too well in the state of Kansas since I've been the coach here, so hopefully we'll play a little bit better on Wednesday." To do so, the Aggies likely must contain Kansas stars Marcus and Markieff Morris. The twin brothers combined for 42 points and 19 rebounds in Saturday's 82-70 win at Oklahoma.
Marcus Morris (17.3 points per game) has totaled 50 points the last two games while Markieff (13.6 ppg) has averaged 20.0 with 10.7 boards the last three. Texas A&M also will try to bounce back after its five-game winning streak was snapped with a 58-51 loss at Baylor on Saturday. Forward Khris Middleton had 12 points with 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. The sophomore averages a team-leading 14.6 points but totaled 17 in two games versus Kansas in 2009-10. The Aggies have dropped nine straight on the road against Top 25 opponents since beating the then-No. 6 Jayhawks 69-66 on Feb. 3, 2007.
--KANSAS is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
The average score was KANSAS 43.4, OPPONENT 29.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--KANSAS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was KANSAS 86.9, OPPONENT 71.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Kansas by 15.5; O/U 139.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Kansas -18
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Kansas -15.66
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (KANSAS) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games.
(52-16 since 1997.) (76.5%, +34.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 35.2 (Average first half point differential = -3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6).
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*** #789 CLEMSON @ #790 DUKE (-13, O/U 133.5) ***
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Trying to bounce back from its first defeat in almost a month and not look ahead to an important regular-season finale against its biggest rival, Duke expects to get back to business in its final home game. The fourth-ranked Blue Devils look to remain atop the ACC and continue their recent overall dominance at Cameron Indoor Stadium with a 14th consecutive home win over Clemson on Wednesday night. Duke's second stint atop the AP Poll lasted one week after its seven-game winning streak was snapped with a 64-60 loss at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Though the Blue Devils (26-3, 12-2) shot 39.7 percent and blew a late six-point lead, coach Mike Krzyzewski felt playing a close game in a hostile environment was a good experience.
"It was like an NCAA game," said Krzyzewski, whose team remains in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. "It was that level. I don't fault my guys. They're playing well." Knowing Saturday's visit to No. 13 North Carolina could be for the outright ACC title and top seed in the league tournament, the Blue Devils have reason to remain focused on Wednesday's contest. Duke is trying for a 36th straight victory at Cameron Indoor in the final home game for star seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Singler (17.4 points per game), who has totaled 50 points the last two games, is a four-year starter in search of his 120th victory at Duke. "Kyle is all about winning, that's why he'll wind up being one of the top two or three kids in the history of our program and in the history of the NCAA," Krzyzewski said.
"When you win a national championship during your four years, you already set yourself apart." Smith, the league's top scorer at 21.3 points per game, scored 22 in each of the Blue Devils' two victories over the Tigers last season. Duke has won two straight and 24 of 26 versus Clemson (19-9, 8-6), which has not won at Cameron Indoor since Jan. 4, 1995. Eight of the teams' last 10 meetings in Durham have been decided by 10 or more points. The Blue Devils broke out to a 30-12 halftime lead in last season's 74-53 home win over the Tigers, who know they are in for a major challenge while trying to improve their NCAA tournament resume with a signature win.
Clemson, 3-6 away from home this season, has lost seven straight road games against Top 25 opponents since winning at No. 21 Virginia Tech 75-74 on March 4, 2007. "We're going to face some adversity, it's not going to be an easy game," Clemson guard Tanner Smith told the school's official website. The Tigers look for a third consecutive victory overall after beating Wake Forest 63-49 on Saturday. Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant each scored 14 points as Clemson built a 33-20 halftime lead. Averaging a team-high 14.1 points this season, Stitt has totaled 32 on 10-of-19 shooting in two games at Cameron Indoor. The Tigers averaged 50.0 points on 35.1 percent shooting in both losses to Duke in 2009-10.
--CLEMSON is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEMSON 65.2, OPPONENT 68.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEMSON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEMSON 62.5, OPPONENT 65.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Duke by 15; O/U 137.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Duke -15.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Duke -15.19
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (DUKE) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less.
(44-14 since 1997.) (75.9%, +28.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-58)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.6
The average score in these games was: Team 61.8, Opponent 72.9 (Average point differential = -11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (31.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (DUKE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%).
(54-22 since 1997.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 64.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.3, Opponent 28.8 (Total first half points scored = 62.1)
The situation's record this season is: (6-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (45-16).
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*** #791 NEW MEXICO @ #792 BYU (-12, O/U 150) ***
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Coming off a huge conference win over a top 10 opponent, BYU has vaulted to its highest ranking in 23 years and is being mentioned as a possible No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament. Now, the Cougars will have to deal with the suspension of one of their better players. With Brandon Davies being held out for the rest of the season for violating the school's honor code, Jimmer Fredette and No. 3 BYU look to clinch a share of the Mountain West title and avenge their only conference loss of the season when they host New Mexico on Wednesday night. BYU (27-2, 13-1) defeated then-No. 6 San Diego State 80-67 on Saturday in a much-hyped battle for first place in the conference.
Fredette had 25 points and nine assists for the Cougars, who swept the season series from the Aztecs to take a one-game lead with two to play. "A big win for those players and I'm really proud of them," BYU coach Dave Rose said. The Cougars jumped four spots in the poll, giving them their highest position since they were third in 1988. After Saturday's victory, Rose was asked if he thought his team deserved a top seed for the NCAAs. "I don't really think about it," he said. "The only time I actually think about seeding is when guys ask me. But realistically, I'll enjoy this for a few hours and then we'll get ready for New Mexico." "New Mexico has been good against us the last couple of years."
The Cougars, though, will be without Davies, a sophomore forward who has started 26 of 29 games this season, averaging 11.1 points, a team-high 6.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 24.9 minutes. Rose said he would address the issue surrounding Davies following Wednesday's game. Rose's team has lost three straight to the Lobos (18-11, 6-8), with BYU being ranked 13th or higher each time, and four of the last five matchups. New Mexico had lost 16 of the previous 20 meetings before this five-game stretch. The Lobos knocked off the then-No. 9 Cougars 86-77 at The Pit on Jan. 29. Fredette had 32 points and went 6 of 9 from 3-point range, but he was limited to five free-throw attempts.
Lobos freshman Tony Snell made three 3-pointers in the final five minutes and New Mexico pulled off its biggest home upset since a 77-74 win over then-No. 3 Utah in 1998. Lobos coach Steve Alford went with a four-guard lineup to push the ball, knowing the plan could backfire because BYU leads the conference with 82.9 points per game. The Cougars, however, went cold, missing nine of their final 11 shots after leading by two with six minutes to play. That is the Cougars' only loss in their last 18 games, and they hope things will go better on their home court. BYU has won all 12 games at the Marriott Center this season by an average of 21.9 points, and is 27-1 there since the start of last season.
The lone blemish was an 83-81 defeat to then-No. 10 New Mexico on Feb. 27, 2010. While the Lobos won the conference title in 2009-10, they haven't enjoyed as much success this season. New Mexico, which snapped a four-game slide with an 80-70 victory over TCU on Saturday, needs to win its final two games to avoid finishing with a losing conference record for the first time since 2006-07. That was the season before Alford took over in Albuquerque. Senior Dairese Gary had another outstanding performance for the Lobos on Saturday, finishing with a career-best 32 points and going 11 of 14 from the floor. Gary, who scored 14 points against BYU in January, is averaging 26.3 in his last three games, 11.8 more than his team-leading average.
--BYU is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was BYU 39.1, OPPONENT 30.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW MEXICO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW MEXICO 30.6, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - BYU by 14.5; O/U 149.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - BYU -13
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - BYU -14.59
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (BYU) - excellent FT shooting team (>=73%) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(55-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.8, Opponent 35.3 (Average first half point differential = -5.5)
The situation's record this season is: (13-9).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-14).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (71-44).
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*** #795 UTAH STATE (-7, O/U 133.5) @ #796 NEW MEXICO STATE ***
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Heading into the final week of the regular season, Utah State already has locked up a school-record fourth consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. Still, coach Stew Morrill knows this isn't the time for his team to let up, especially with a matchup in Las Cruces next on the schedule. Back in the rankings after a one-week absence, No. 25 Utah State tries to win its fifth straight Wednesday night and spoil stumbling New Mexico State's chances of becoming the other team to earn a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Utah State (26-3, 13-1) already has a bye into the semifinals next week in Las Vegas, having wrapped up the No. 1 seed, and finished with a perfect home record in WAC play for the fourth straight season with Saturday's 84-68 victory over Idaho. Morrill, though, sees plenty of challenges in this game even though New Mexico State (14-15, 8-6) has lost three straight. "New Mexico State is undefeated at home (6-0) this season, in conference play, and they get really juiced up when they play us," Morrill said.
"The fact that we have won the regular season, some of the past history we have with them, and the fact that they beat us in the tournament last season, I am sure they will be ready to go." New Mexico State, which defeated Utah State in the 2010 WAC tournament title game after losing its final two regular-season games, must win this contest and Saturday's matchup with Nevada to grab the No. 2 seed and the other double-bye. Coach Marvin Menzies' team now looks to halt its second-worst losing streak of the season, which includes a 76-70 defeat to Hawaii on Saturday.
Though this skid includes a non-conference home loss to Northern Colorado, New Mexico State has won its six WAC games at the Pan American Center by an average of 15.0 points. The team has shot 51.0 percent in those victories while holding the opposition to 41.4 percent. "They're big, they're quick, they cause you all kinds of problems," Morrill said. "They always play us man-to-man it seems, and they get into it." So does Morrill's team, among the nation's best in field-goal percentage defense (38.8) and scoring defense at 59.1 points per game. Utah State, also among the nation's best in rebounding margin at 8.7, outrebounded New Mexico State 45-30 and held it to 37.7 percent from the floor in a 59-49 home win Jan. 22.
Troy Gillenwater led New Mexico State with 20 points and is second in the WAC with 19.3 per game, but he could struggle Wednesday after a thumb injury on his shooting hand contributed to him missing eight of 10 from the field and scoring just six points at Hawaii. Utah State's Tai Wesley, among the conference leaders with 14.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, scored a team-high 18 points in the Jan. 22 victory. He had 14 in Utah State's last trip to Las Cruces a 55-52 loss Jan. 2, 2010. New Mexico State has won five of its last six home games in the series.
--NEW MEXICO ST is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 31.7, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW MEXICO ST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games since 1997.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 64.5, OPPONENT 70.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah St by 8; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Utah St -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah St -7.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Road teams against the total (UTAH ST) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(40-13 since 1997.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 140.9
The average score in these games was: Team 68.4, Opponent 64.7 (Total points scored = 133.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (62.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-8).
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••• BEAST'S FROM THE EAST COLLIDE ON ESPN2 •••
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At least 10 Big East teams await the call from the selection committee for this year's NCAA Tournament. That group includes Villanova who is in the throes of a horrible slide after sitting pretty as a likely 2-seed for the tournament and a top-10 team just a few short weeks ago. The Wildcats are listed at No. 19 in the AP poll. The latest rankings came out prior to the Wildcats laying a 21-point egg on the road Monday at Notre Dame, the loss leaving 'Nova 11th in the conference standings. Four teams with 9-7 conference marks sit just a half-game ahead of 'Nova currently, and two of them meet Wednesday when the West Virginia Mountaineers host the Connecticut Huskies.
With the Big East Tournament just around the corner, WVU and UConn are two teams jockeying for position. Wednesday night's meeting could go down to the wire. There’s a major logjam in the Big East and this week’s action will go a long way in determining the seeds for the conference tournament. Four teams are currently tied for seventh place and each is hoping to avoid playing on the first day of the tourney at MSG. West Virginia knows it will have to try to contain Kemba Walker as much as possible, which is a lot easier said than done. Walker sits second in the conference averaging 22.8 points per game and can expect to see a lot of West Virginia’s 1-3-1 zone defense.
UConn (21-7 straight up, 13-9 against the spread) hits the WVU Coliseum floor off Sunday's 67-59 victory at Cincinnati, a game the Huskies controlled throughout as 3½-point underdogs. The game snapped a two-game skid both on the floor and at the window for Connecticut, the final score just slipping below the 127-point total to mark the third consecutive under for Jim Calhoun's squad. The victory came on the heels of a disappointing loss at home in overtime to Marquette earlier in the week, a Golden Eagles win that could ultimately help them become the 11th Big East squad to get a dance invitation. Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers are also coming off a Sunday road win, cover and under.
West Virginia (18-10 SU, 11-14 ATS) dropped Rutgers by a 65-54 count, using a 12-2 closing run to easily cover the 3½-point chalk and the game comfortably staying below the 127½ tally. The Mountaineers cleaned up on the glass with a 44-26 rebounding edge and defended the perimeter to the tune of the Scarlet Knights missing 12 of their 13 long-range shots. Sunday's win snapped a three-game road skid for WVU, their previous win on the Big East highway coming at the end of January at Cincinnati. The Mountaineers are 10-2 at home this season, both losses coming to conference foes Pitt, St. John's. Connecticut is 8-4 away from its home courts this campaign, 4-3 in conference play.
The Huskies hung a 73-62 defeat on the Mountaineers last season at the XL Center in Hartford where West Virginia was slight two-point road chalk. The contest failed to reach the 137½-point total. UConn's win marked its third straight over the Mountaineers in regular season play, a string that includes the Huskies' last trip to Morgantown in Jan. 2009 when the Huskies prevailed as three-point pups, 61-55. Tuesday's tip-off in Morgantown is a little past 7 p.m. (ET) with ESPN2 providing the pictures. The network will follow this broadcast with the Big 12 matchup at Kansas between the Jayhawks and Texas A&M Aggies. The Mountaineers close their regular season slate at home this Saturday when they face Louisville. Connecticut will be back home to end the season when it hosts Notre Dame this Saturday.
Stat/Systems Sports is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet to date. Our popular Stat/Sheets, along with our daily Stat/Systems Reports are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. “Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is what Stat/Systems Sports is all about. So make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season!
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***** WEDNESDAY, MARCH 2ND NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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••• QUICK HITS •••
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• N CAROLINA @ FLORIDA ST, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
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--N CAROLINA: 9-0 ATS off BB covers as favorite.
--FLORIDA ST: 0-6 ATS revenging loss where opp scored 75+ pt.
Florida State (+7) lost 89-69 at North Carolina Feb 6; Tar Heels shot 56% from floor, Marshall had 16 assists. State was just 4-19 from arc. FSU won four of last five games, but will miss injured star Singleton in this game- they're 7-0 at home in ACC. North Carolina won 10 of last 11 games (9-2 vs spread). ACC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 4-7.
• UAB @ SOUTHERN MISS, 8:00 PM ET
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--UAB: 10-2 ATS in road games.
--SOUTHERN MISS: 15-6 ATS off an Under.
Southern Mississippi (+4) won 75-71 at UAB Feb 2, with +14 edge on boards, offsetting Blazers going 12-22 from arc. Eagles covered last four home games, winning by 13-7-13-17 points. C-USA home favorites of less than 5 points are 14-8-1 vs spread. UAB won five of last six games; their C-USA losses are by 16-3-4-4 points (2-2 as C-USA underdog). The Blazers have played under the total 16 times this season, which is tied for the most in the nation. The under has cashed in on five of UAB’s last six games and the club allows just over 62 points per game on the year.
• MARYLAND @ MIAMI, 7:00 PM ET ESPNU
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--MARYLAND: 8-0 Under Away if the total is 140 to 144.5.
--MIAMI: 0-7 ATS in conference home games.
Maryland lost its last three road games, losing by 4-8-11 points- they allowed 76+ points in four of last five games. Miami lost three of its last four games overall, four of last six at home- dogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in their last eight games. 10 of last 12 Miami games were decided by six or less points. ACC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 4-7 vs spread.
• CONNECTICUT @ W VIRGINIA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
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--CONNECTICUT: 26-12 Under as a road underdog of 6 points or less.
--W VIRGINIA: 6-0 Under off conf win by 10+.
UConn is 4-5 in last nine games, West Virginia 3-4 in last seven. Huskies are 4-4 on Big East road, 3-2 as road dog, losing away games by 15-3-17-13 points. Mountaineers covered four of last six games as favorite- they are 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 30-10-12-11-14, with two losses. Big East home favorites of less than 5 points are 21-17.
• CINCINNATI @ MARQUETTE, 8:00 PM ET
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--CINCINNATI: 4-14 ATS off SU loss.
--MARQUETTE: 15-4 ATS vs. Cincinnati.
Cincinnati won three of last four games; Marquette won its last three, as both teams appear to have won their way off bubble, but you just never know. Bearcats won four of last five on road, are 2-4 as underdog in Big East play, losing road games by 11-15-8-12 points. Marquette is 6-2 as home favorite. Single digit home faves are 37-28 vs spread in Big East.
• MINNESOTA @ NORTHWESTERN, 8:30 PM ET Big 10
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--MINNESOTA: 6-15 ATS as road underdog.
--NORTHWESTERN: 6-0 Over off loss by 15+.
Northwestern (+5) lost 81-70 at Minnesota Jan 26, outscored 31-10 on foul line; Wildcats were 12-39 from arc, 12-24 inside it, but Gophers are 1-7 since that game, losing road games by 12-3-3 points. Northwestern is 3-7 in last 10 games; they're 2-2-1 as Big 11 favorite. Big 11 home favorites of less than 4 points are 10-4-1 against the spread.
• TEXAS A&M @ KANSAS, 9:00 PM ET ESPN2
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--TEXAS A&M: 6-0 ATS Away off SU loss.
--KANSAS: 11-3 Over vs. conference.
Kansas won/covered its last five home games since losing to Texas; they are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games overall. Double digit home favorites are 11-9 vs spread in Big 12 play. Texas A&M won five of last six; they are 2-3 as Big 12 road underdog, losing its away games by 21-9-7 points. Kansas beat Aggies twice LY, by 5 on road, by 13 in Big 12 tourney.
• CLEMSON @ DUKE, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
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--CLEMSON: 0-7 ATS Away off conference win.
--DUKE: 17-8 ATS off ATS loss.
Duke is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 ACC games, but just 2-5 as ACC home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-16-16-24-6-22 points- they have game in Chapel Hill Saturday, better not overlook Clemson squad that is 8-5 in ACC, 2-1-1 as a dog. ACC home favorites of more than 8 points are 8-13 vs spread. Tigers' biggest ACC loss was 75-65 at UNC.
• NEW MEXICO @ BYU, 10:00 PM ET MTN
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--NEW MEXICO: 66-44 ATS after scoring 80+.
--BYU: 0-6 ATS at home off win by 10+.
BYU's leading rebounder Fields is done for year (honor code violation); Cougars aren't a deep team- they lost 86-77 (-2) at New Mexico Jan 29, as Lobos shot 51%, but New Mexico lost four of last five games, is 3-2 as MWC road dog, losing its away games by 1-10-1-6-6 points. MWC home favorites of more than 8 points are 5-14 against spread.
• LONG BEACH ST @ UC-RIVERSIDE, 11:00 PM ET
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--LONG BEACH ST: 7-0 ATS Away off conf win by 10+.
--UC-RIVERSIDE: 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 155+ point.
UC-Riverside (+14) lost 68-55 at Long Beach two weeks ago, shooting 37% in game they trailed by 19 at half; UCR is 7-4 as underdog, 2-1 at home. 49ers won last eight games (6-2 vs spread); they're 3-2 as a road favorite in conference. Big West home underdogs are 9-9-1 vs spread; this is the most points a Big West team has gotten at home this season.
• UTAH ST @ NEW MEXICO ST, 11:00 PM ET ESPN2
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--UTAH ST: 27-12 ATS Away after scoring 80+ pts.
--NEW MEXICO ST: 9-1 Over at home off road loss.
New Mexico State (+14) lost 59-49 at Utah State Jan 22, getting beat on boards 44-28, but Aggies are 6-0 at home in WAC, with all wins by 8+ points. Utah State is 4-2 as WAC road favorite, winning on road by 14-9-13-19-5 points, but they lost last road game, at Idaho Feb 9. WAC home underdogs are 6-7 against the spread this season.
• REST OF WEDNESDAY'S CARD
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--IOWA @ MICHIGAN ST, 6:35 PM ET Big 10 IOWA: 14-3 Over as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. MICHIGAN ST: 7-16 ATS as favorite of 10+.
--PROVIDENCE @ LOUISVILLE, 7:00 PM ET PROVIDENCE: 0-6 ATS Away off SU loss. LOUISVILLE: 8-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less.
--CHARLOTTE @ XAVIER, 7:00 PM ET CHARLOTTE: 14-34 ATS vs. conference. XAVIER: 23-10 ATS as favorite of 10+.
--SAINT LOUIS @ DAYTON, 7:00 PM ET SAINT LOUIS: 7-1 ATS at Dayton. DAYTON: 8-21 ATS off BB Unders.
--MEMPHIS @ E CAROLINA, 7:00 PM ET MEMPHIS: 1-12 ATS off BB games w/ 9 or less offensive rebounds. E CAROLINA: 0-8 ATS at home off conference road win.
--SMU @ UCF, 7:00 PM ET SMU: 6-0 ATS Away off BB ATS wins. UCF: 2-8 ATS as home favorite.
--BALL ST @ W MICHIGAN, 7:00 PM ET BALL ST: 14-1 ATS off conference win. W MICHIGAN: 0-6 ATS off double digit road win.
--ST BONAVENTURE @ DUQUESNE, 7:00 PM ET ST BONAVENTURE: 8-0 ATS Away off double digit loss. DUQUESNE: 0-7 ATS at home off road loss.
--FORDHAM @ LASALLE, 7:00 PM ET FORDHAM: 4-14 ATS as underdog. LASALLE: 5-17 ATS in home games.
--TEMPLE @ MASSACHUSETTS, 7:00 PM ET TEMPLE: 7-0 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. MASSACHUSETTS: 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less.
--RICHMOND @ ST JOSEPHS, 7:00 PM ET RICHMOND: 14-4 ATS in conference road games. ST JOSEPHS: 0-10 ATS at home off an Over.
--GEORGE WASHINGTON @ RHODE ISLAND, 7:00 PM ET GEORGE WASHINGTON: 11-3 ATS vs. conference. RHODE ISLAND: 0-6 ATS at home after scoring 80+ pts.
--MIAMI OHIO @ BUFFALO, 7:00 PM ET MIAMI OHIO: 2-8 ATS off home win. BUFFALO: 5-1 Over vs. Miami (OH).
--OKLAHOMA @ TEXAS TECH, 7:30 PM ET OKLAHOMA: 0-7 ATS Away off BB losses. TEXAS TECH: 11-3 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 games.
--COLORADO @ IOWA ST, 7:30 PM ET COLORADO: 45-71 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games. IOWA ST: 13-5 ATS off home win.
--TCU @ AIR FORCE, 8:00 PM ET MTN TCU: 9-25 ATS if underdog last game. AIR FORCE: 6-0 Over off conference win.
--HOUSTON @ TULANE, 8:00 PM ET HOUSTON: 8-1 ATS off 2 straight conf losses. TULANE: 0-6 ATS revenging road loss.
--E MICHIGAN @ N ILLINOIS, 7:00 PM ET E MICHIGAN: 23-8 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games. N ILLINOIS: 2-8 ATS in home games.
--LSU @ GEORGIA, 8:00 PM ET LSU: 1-8 ATS off loss by 20 or more. GEORGIA: 0-6 ATS at home off conference win.
--OLE MISS @ AUBURN, 8:00 PM ET OLE MISS: 21-9 ATS in road games. AUBURN: 6-0 ATS at home w/ same season revenge.
--TULSA @ RICE, 8:00 PM ET TULSA: 12-24 ATS as favorite. RICE: 2-9 ATS as home underdog.
--RUTGERS @ DEPAUL, 8:30 PM ET RUTGERS: 5-1 ATS vs. DePaul. DEPAUL: 1-8 ATS as home dog of 6pts or less.
--PITTSBURGH @ S FLORIDA, 9:00 PM ET ESPNU PITTSBURGH: 10-3 Under off 3+ conf games. S FLORIDA: 11-2 ATS off win by 10+.
--MISSISSIPPI ST @ ARKANSAS, 9:00 PM ET MISSISSIPPI ST: 2-10 ATS off SU win. ARKANSAS: 5-13 ATS as favorite.
--MARSHALL @ UTEP, 9:05 PM ET MARSHALL: 16-6 ATS in road games. UTEP: 20-6 ATS after allowing 50 points or less.
--UTAH @ COLORADO ST, 9:15 PM ET (TC) UTAH: 2-9 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games. COLORADO ST: 27-14 Over off 3+ conf games.
• ADDED GAMES
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--PORTLAND ST @ N ARIZONA, 8:35 PM ET PORTLAND ST: 1-7 ATS if favored last game. N ARIZONA: 10-3 ATS off ATS win.
--SACRAMENTO ST @ N COLORADO, 9:05 PM ET SACRAMENTO ST: 17-4 ATS off home game. N COLORADO: 8-17 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.
--IDAHO ST @ MONTANA ST, 9:05 PM ET IDAHO ST: 7-18 ATS in conf road games. MONTANA ST: 0-7 ATS at home revenging same season loss.
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
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••• OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT •••
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• TENN-MARTIN VS. TENNESSEE ST, 7:00 PM ET
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--TENN-MARTIN: 7-0 ATS off ATS loss.
--TENNESSEE ST: 6-0 ATS off 3+ SU wins.
UT-Martin is 13-4 vs spread in its last 17 games, covering five of last six on road; Tennessee State beat Skyhawks twice this season, 56-47 (-10) st home, 67-64 on road (-5); State was 14-35 from arc in those games, Martin 8-36. Tigers covered just one of last five games as home favorite, winning their home games by 7-13-2-5-6-9-4 points.
• SE MISSOURI ST VS. E KENTUCKY, 9:25 PM ET
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--SE MISSOURI ST: 12-2 ATS Away off loss by 15+.
--E KENTUCKY: 6-0 ATS Away after a combined score of 125 points or less.
Eastern Kentucky beat SE Missouri twice this year, 64-52 on road (-8). 77-64 at home (-12); Colonels led both games by 3 at half. EKU lost last four games, allowing 74.3 ppg- they covered last three games as a home favorite. SEMo lost 10 of last 12 games, but covered four of their last six games. OVC favorites of 7 or less points are 25-27 against the spread.
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Stan 'The Man Szumera continues to make history as one of the Nation's Top Sports Gaming Analysts of all time. The Man's reputation as the ultimate Sports Insider expands by the year. His coveted early NCAA College Basketball, along with his National Basketball Association Selections have literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts in this business today who can equal his big play record over the years.
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••• NOTES & TIPS •••
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--BYU forward Brandon Davies has been suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the school's honor code, the university announced Tuesday. Officials were reportedly made aware of the violations on Monday, although Davies' future at the school and on the team remains uncertain. The sophomore was averaging 11.1 points and 6.2 rebounds while starting 26 of 29 games this season for the third-ranked Cougars. Brigham Young is scheduled to face the New Mexico Lobos in Provo Wednesday night. The Cougars lost 86-77 as 2.5-point road favorites to the Lobos on January 29. The defeat came following a big win over San Diego State, which is the same situation BYU is in Wednesday after thumping the Aztecs 80-67 as a 4.5-point underdog Saturday. Oddsmakers opened the Cougars as 12-point home favorites versus New Mexico with the total set at 150 points.
--Despite suspensions, injuries and losing key players from last season, the Kansas Jayhawks are in position to win a seventh consecutive Big 12 Conference title. Point guard and assists leader Tyshawn Taylor is the latest Kansas player suspended. The 27-2 Jayhawks keep winning despite their internal troubles thanks to twin brothers Marcus and Markieff Morris, Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed, the only player to start all of Kansas’ games. Kansas is 10th-best in defending against 3-pointers, but its trademark is offense.
The Jayhawks currently rank fourth in the nation in points at 83.8 per game, are No. 1 in field goal percentage at 52.3 and tops in assists per game at 18.4. If you discount an 84-68 defeat to Kansas State, the Jayhawks are averaging 89 points during their past nine games. The over has cashed in nine of the Jayhawks’ last 10 games. The Jayhawks have gone over in 18 of their 27 games versus lined opponents. The Jayhawks are 60-5 during the past two seasons. Kansas is winning by an average of 18.8 points per game this season. The Jayhawks are 12-2 in the Big 12, one-half game ahead of Texas. The Longhorns are 12-3 in league after losing to Kansas State this past Monday night. Kansas concludes its regular season at Missouri on Saturday.
--Texas A&M is third in the conference at 9-5. The Aggies are led by Khris Middleton, Nathan Walkup and B.J. Holmes. Nobody averages more than 14 points per game, though. The Aggies win with a tenacious defense that surrenders just 60.5 points per game, which is 15th-best in the country. In matchups versus board opponents, the Aggies are 12-7-1 to the under. Texas A&M had won five in a row until losing 58-51 to Baylor this past Saturday as three-point road ‘dogs. The combined 109 points went under the 127 ½-point total. It was only the fourth time in 24 games the Aggies lost when allowing fewer than 70 points this season. The Bears held Texas A&M to 35 percent shooting from the floor, the Aggies’ third-worst shooting percentage this season.
The Aggies, who finish their regular season at home on Saturday against Texas Tech, have a history of finishing strong in the Big 12 under coach Mark Turgeon. Texas A&M went 6-2 each of the last two seasons during the final eight regular-season Big 12 games. The Aggies are 5-1 this season during the second half of their Big 12 slate. Defense has been a trademark of the Aggies under Turgeon, who is in his fourth season. The Aggies are the only team, besides Pittsburgh, to win an NCAA Tournament game in each of the past five seasons. The Aggies held Kansas and Texas to season-low in points last season, although losing 59-54 at home to the Jayhawks covering as 6½-point underdogs. The combined 113 points dipped well under the 141-point total.
--Missouri State junior Kyle Weems has been picked as the Missouri Valley Conference player of the year. Weems, who was honored Tuesday, is the only player in the conference ranked in the top five in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, steals and free throw percentage. The Bears (23-7) won a school-record 15 conference games and are the top seed in the league tournament. Weems averages 16.3 points and seven rebounds and is shooting 50.7 percent, while leading the team with 37 steals and ranking second with 26 blocks. He received all but three of 36 first-place votes from a panel of sports information directors and media. Others on the first team included Creighton's Doug McDermott, Kwadzo Ahelegbe of Northern Iowa, J.T. Durley of Wichita State and Andrew Warren of Bradley.
--Northern Iowa limps into league tournament. For the past two years, Northern Iowa rolled into St. Louis as the top seed in the Missouri Valley tournament and rolled out with a league title. For the past month, the Panthers have played more like pushovers than a powerhouse. Northern Iowa (19-12, 10-8 MVC) has dropped six of its last seven - a stretch coinciding with a season-ending injury to senior forward Lucas O'Rear - and fallen to the fourth seed for the league tournament entering Friday's game against fifth-seeded Creighton. Only Southern Illinois (1993-95) has won straight Valley conference titles and Northern Iowa doesn't look like a team ready to match the feat. In less than 12 months, the rebuilt Panthers have gone from a team that stunned top-seeded Kansas in the NCAA tournament to one whose hopes of at-large bid have long since faded.
Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobson still believes in the basic principles that have guided the Panthers to success. He believes they apply to the league tournament. That's proven to be much tougher without O'Rear, the heart and soul of the defensive-minded Panthers. After winning back-to-back Sixth Man of the Year honors in the league, O'Rear moved into the starting lineup this season to compensate for the loss of frontcourt stars Jordan Eglseder and Adam Koch. The Panthers and O'Rear got it going after some early struggles, winning eight league games in a row to jump to 18-6 and 9-3 in the Valley. But when O'Rear left Northern Iowa's 53-51 win over Illinois State on Feb. 2 with a fractured right ankle, he seemingly took the Panthers' defense with him.
Northern Iowa has allowed 72.2 points a game without O'Rear in the lineup this season after giving up just 56.6 points with him. Their only win since O'Rear went down was at last-place Bradley. The Panthers won't go very far in St. Louis unless they can start playing better defense. One positive the Panthers have going for them is strong guard play. Sophomore Anthony James ranks second on the team in scoring and has hit 41.7 percent of his 3-point attempts. Junior Johnny Moran has a team-high 58 3s and has scored in double figures in five of his last six games. Northern Iowa also has senior point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who was named the Most Outstanding Player in last year's league tournament.
Ahelegbe is averaging a career-high 14 points per game and was averaging 20 over his last four outings before a substandard effort in Saturday's loss at Creighton. Ahelegbe scored 24 points in last season's win over Wichita State in the league title game, and Northern Iowa might need him to replicate such a feat three days in a row to pull off the unlikely three-peat. "He's led us to some pretty special places," Jacobson said. "To know that we've got a senior that we know has played very well in St. Louis and has helped us win a lot of games there the past two years, for us that certainly helps."
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Stat/Systems Sports is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet to date. Our popular Stat/Sheets, along with our daily Stat/Systems Reports are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. “Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is what Stat/Systems Sports is all about, call us toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 and start winning today, you’ll be real glad you did” -Stan 'The Man!
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••• MID-MAJORS CONFERENCE TOURNEYS •••
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The big boys are still slugging it out and bringing their regular season schedules to a close. Mid-majors, meanwhile, will begin conference tournaments this week with many of the winners ultimately the only schools from their leagues getting a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Here's a quick look at three middies, including the Ivy League which still has some regular season left.
• COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION - (Richmond, VA)
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Action begins Friday, March 4, with the top-4 teams from the regular season getting a bye in the opening round. That quartet is made up of George Mason, the top seed in the tourney with a 16-2 CAA mark, Old Dominion, Hofstra and Virginia Commonwealth. George Mason and Old Dominion, ranked 1-2 in the recent mid-majors top 25, are expected to meet in the CAA Championship which will be played Monday, March 7. The Patriots (25-5 straight up, 21-7 against the spread) captured the hearts of bettors early this season but will enter the conference tourney off consecutive losses at the window. George Mason had a 14-game run covering the number before falling short as chalk to Northeastern and Georgia State to close the regular season schedule. A 15-game win streak on the floor is intact entering the tournament, the Patriots' last loss a 69-65 decision at Old Dominion (24-6 SU, 13-13 ATS) on Jan. 8 as six-point underdogs. That game ironically started the 14-game run against the NCAA odds.
• MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE - (St. Louis)
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It's 'Arch Madness' at Scottrade Center beginning this Thursday (March 3) when the MVC begins its postseason tourney. The Missouri State Bears earned top seed honors by virtue of their 69-64 home win over Wichita State last Saturday, with the Shockers seeded second. Both teams ended the season with 23-7 overall records straight up. The Bears, 15-3 in conference action, finished 14-13-2 against the spread with Wichita State 14-4 on the MVC slate and 13-12 ATS. The top six teams in the conference get a first round bye. Southern Illinois and Illinois State will play Thursday to see who draws top-seed Missouri State on Friday. Drake and Bradley are also in action on Thursday, the winner taking on Wichita State the following day. The rest of Friday's action has No. 5 Creighton against No. 4 Northern Iowa and No. 3 Indiana State taking on No. 6 Evansville. Semifinal action will begin at 11:30 a.m. Saturday with the MVC Championship set for 11 a.m. Sunday, CBS providing the telecast.
• WEST COAST CONFERENCE - (Las Vegas)
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A rubber match looms between St. Mary's and Gonzaga in this year's WCC Tournament at Sin City's Orleans Arena. Both teams will have byes into the semifinals, with the Gaels seeded first and the Bulldogs second. Play gets underway Friday with No. 5 Portland meeting No. 8 Loyola Marymount. That game is followed by No. 6 Pepperdine versus No. 7 San Diego. San Francisco and Santa Clara will be in action as the 3-4 seeds respectively the following day. The Dons get the winner of the 6/7 game with the Broncos taking on the 5/8 victors. Assuming all goes according to plan, St. Mary's and Gonzaga would tip at 6 p.m. (PT) on Monday, March 7, with ESPN broadcasting. The two rivals split their regular season meetings, each recording underdog upsets on each other's home floor. Gonzaga is seeking a 13th-straight trip to the NCAA Tournament while St. Mary's is looking to return following last year's loss to Baylor in the Sweet 16 round.
• IVY LEAGUE
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There's no postseason tourney for Conference Brainiac, but that doesn't mean there's not a default conference championship tilt on the slate. Saturday's Princeton, Harvard matchup (March 5) in Boston is a big one for determining whether the Ivy League gets one or two teams into the NCAA Tournament. Princeton (22-5 SU, 12-11 ATS) can claim the league crown with a road win. Make that a road win after another road win. The Tigers are in Hanover, NH, the night before to take on Dartmouth. Harvard (21-5 SU, 9-10 ATS) has Penn at home in Lavietes Pavilion the night before its battle with Princeton, so the Crimson also can't afford to look too far ahead to the Tigers on Saturday. The Tigers will also have one more game after their battle at Harvard, a trip to Penn; Princeton was taken to overtime at home by the Quakers on Feb. 8. A loss by the Tigers at both Harvard and Penn could give the eventual automatic bid to the Crimson. Princeton picked up a 65-61 win at home when it met Harvard on Feb. 4. Oddsmakers chalked the Tigers 2½ in that one, and it was a near dead-even match statistically, the bottom line being six fewer turnovers for Princeton.
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••• NCAAB TOP-25 FAVORITES & FRAUDS •••
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The college basketball Top 25 poll is certainly fun to look at and make your own judgments. But the fact is any ranking has just as much to do with politics and name recognition than it does with hoops prowess. What's more important for bettors is to examine Las Vegas power rankings. After all, Vegas makes numbers on every game and those numbers are backed not by publicity, politics or public perception, but by money. Each week here in our Stat/Systems Report, we’ll take a look at the Top 25 polls and expose where the rankings went wrong and where college hoops bettors can find hidden value in these big-name programs, either betting on or against them.
• MOST OVERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: FLORIDA (22-6 SU; 10-13-1 ATS)
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A 6-1 run has the Gators firmly entrenched in the AP Top-25, currently ranked 14th in the nation. I'm not buying it. First of all, I have Florida ranked 29th in my latest power rankings. While I do differ from the AP poll often, I am usually not far off from the RPI rankings, but this is one case where I am. The RPI has Florida ranked even higher than the AP at #11. While they are on a 6-1 run, the Gators could very easily be 3-4 in their last seven games. Home court hasn't meant a whole lot to this team of late. They escaped with a one point win over Tennessee. And the Gators barely slipped by Kentucky in this season's first meeting, a 70-68 win, while having to go to overtime to beat Vanderbilt in Gainesville. Florida has their Big Dance ticket punched already. But I wouldn't put money on them in their final two regular season games, hosting Alabama on Tuesday before playing in Nashville against Vanderbilt this weekend. Florida should get past Alabama, at least SU. But I wouldn't be shocked if they finish the season on a 0-2 slide. Florida plays hard, but they have been quite fortunate down the stretch. The Gators are this week's overrated Top-25 team.
• MOST UNDERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: KENTUCKY (20-8 SU; 10-12-1 ATS)
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We find Kentucky ranked 20th in this week's AP Top-25. I feel this team is underrated by at least six or seven spots in the rankings. While Coach Calipari began the season with some young faces, the team has played well at both ends of the court for most of the campaign. Kentucky ranks 11th in FG percentage allowed at 38-percent. Yet at the same time, the Wildcats are also getting it done, sacrificing nothing on the offensive end where they rank 20th in scoring. Kentucky can be a nightmare for teams that find the deep perimeter tough to defend. The 'Cats head into this week's action ranked 14th in the nation in 3-point shooting, and they hit over 46-percent of their shots overall. A lack of depth may eventually cost this team in the Big Dance, but they have several scoring "outs" that could springboard them into a deep tourney run. Kentucky has four players averaging between 11 ppg and 17.7 ppg. No less than three players make more than 40-percent of their 3-point attempts. And two players average about 9 rpg. Quality shooting from the perimeter; the ability to drive the paint and finish, dish, or draw fouls; and a strong inside game on the boards! Yet here they are, just 20th in this week's standings. I expect a jump in the polls after closing the season this week with a home game against Vanderbilt and a road tilt at Tennessee. Kentucky is this week's most underrated ranked team.
• TEAM THAT DESERVES TO BE RANKED: KANSAS STATE (21-9 SU; 11-13 ATS)
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Many preseason magazines had Kansas State going to the Final Four, or at least the Elite-8 this season. But thanks to injuries and some off the court turmoil, Frank Martin's team looked NIT-bound not all that long ago. But the Wildcats have won five in a row and seven of their last eight. They have beaten Kansas in Manhattan, and now own road wins over Texas and Nebraska. K-State led Texas throughout the second half on Monday night never looking in danger of losing the contest. They did the same to Nebraska, and whipped Kansas for almost an entire 40 minutes. Texas got physical with Jacob Pullen on Monday, but the team's leading scorer picked up his game in the second half despite a wrist-injury. But the 'Cats showed they have others who can pick up the slack, including Curtis Kelly and Rodney McGruder. Kansas State is surging at the right time. They're making 48-percet of their FG attempts during the run, including 44-percent from the arc. This is a team that no one is going to want to face through the first couple of rounds of March Madness. Kansas State is this week's most underrated Top-25 team, but must stay away from a potential flat spot when they host Iowa State on March 5.
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••• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS ••• - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situational Systems for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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5* SAINT LOUIS +4 - (92.6%)
4* SE MISSOURI ST +6.5 - (84.6%)
4* CHARLOTTE +9.5 - (84.2%)
4* BUFFALO -400 - (83.7%)
4* UC-RIVERSIDE +4.5 - (83.3%)
4* N ILLINOIS -1 - (81.8%)
4* FORDHAM/LASALLE OVER 72.5 - (81.2%)
4* FORDHAM +11 - (80.5%)
4* UTEP -250 - (80.3%)
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (SAINT LOUIS) - off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent.
(25-2 since 1997.) (92.6%, +22.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 29.9 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
--PLAY ON - Neutral court teams (SE MISSOURI ST) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (15-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.8
The average score in these games was: Team 64.4, Opponent 62.8 (Average point differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 7 (30.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (42-23).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (XAVIER) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
(32-6 since 1997.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 28.4, Opponent 31.2 (Average first half point differential = -2.8)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-6).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (BUFFALO) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off a home win against a conference rival.
(118-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.7%, +65.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -226.5
The average score in these games was: Team 72.7, Opponent 65.1 (Average point differential = +7.6)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-11, +38.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (268-81, +57.9 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (LONG BEACH ST) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games.
(25-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.1, Opponent 28.8 (Average first half point differential = +1.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (43-29).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E MICHIGAN) - poor shooting team - shooting <=42% on the season against opponent after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(27-6 since 1997.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (26-8)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.4
The average score in these games was: Team 68.7, Opponent 62.6 (Average point differential = +6.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (45.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 (FORDHAM) - after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 72.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 35.2, Opponent 42.8 (Total first half points scored = 77.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (38-28).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (FORDHAM) - after allowing 75 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 125 points or less.
(33-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (3-39 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 15.3
The average score in these games was: Team 65, Opponent 74.9 (Average point differential = -10)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (43.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (68-46).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (UTEP) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a win by 15 points or more.
(269-66 since 1997.) (80.3%, +109.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -241.4
The average score in these games was: Team 71.9, Opponent 64.5 (Average point differential = +7.4)
The situation's record this season is: (11-8, -11.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (79-19, +28.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (114-30, +36.6 units).
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NOTE: College Basketball betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand College Basketball Lines, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these College Basketball Lines with the public in mind. They know the general public is going to bet on the popular teams every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like this.
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*** #721 NORTH CAROLINA (-2, O/U 137) @ #722 FLORIDA STATE ***
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After a sluggish start to the season, North Carolina may have a chance to win the ACC regular-season crown outright with a victory this weekend over its biggest rival. Roy Williams, however, has warned his players about looking too far ahead. Before turning their attention to that showdown, the 13th-ranked Tar Heels are first focused on running their winning streak to six at Florida State on Wednesday night. North Carolina (22-6, 12-2) and Duke are tied atop the ACC and will close out the regular season against one another Saturday in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels lost the first meeting in Durham 79-73 on Feb. 9, but have reeled off five straight wins since.
They pulled even with the Blue Devils atop the standings with an 87-76 victory over Maryland on Sunday, one day after Virginia Tech upset then-No. 1 Duke. Although North Carolina was picked to finish third in the ACC one season after going 5-11 in the league, its chance to win the conference title is still a bit surprising considering it lost three of its first seven games overall. It only has three losses in 21 games since. "We've been working all season to make sure we get to this position," said freshman Harrison Barnes, who had 21 points against the Terrapins.
"And it's been a struggle. We definitely had times where we didn't think we could do it. But now we're in this position and we just have to seize the moment." Williams isn't quite ready to think about the possibility of winning the regular-season crown and earning the top seed in the ACC tournament. "It would mean a great deal," he said, "but we better be thinking in terms of Florida State and not be thinking about Duke." The Tar Heels, however, had no trouble in their first meeting of the season with the Seminoles (20-8, 10-4), beating them 89-69 in Chapel Hill on Feb. 6.
Barnes led all scorers with 17 points, while Tyler Zeller and John Henson each scored 16 and Dexter Strickland added 15. North Carolina frustrated Florida State's defense, which leads the nation in opponent field goal percentage (36.1), but allowed season highs in points and shooting (55.7 percent) against the Tar Heels. The Seminoles have been much better on defense since, yielding an average of 64.4 points on 34.6 percent shooting in winning four of their last five games. Still, they could run into trouble again trying to shut down Zeller and Barnes, who combined for 46 points against Maryland.
Florida State's offense might also have problems with leading scorer Chris Singleton slated to miss his fourth straight game with a broken foot. Singleton, who is expected to return for the ACC tournament, had a team-best 15 points at North Carolina last month. Singleton's replacement, freshman Okaro White, stepped up for the Seminoles on Saturday, hitting a key 10-foot jumper with 31 seconds left in a 65-59 victory over Miami.
White led Florida State with seven rebounds and matched Deividas Dulkys with a team-high 17 points. "He stepped it up when we needed him," Dulkys said about White. "He's a very good player. You can't count him as a freshman." This will be the Seminoles' final game in Tallahassee this season, and they have a chance to go 8-0 at home in ACC play for the first time in school history. They upset top-ranked Duke at the Tucker Center on Jan. 12, but have lost their last four meetings with the Tar Heels there.
--FLORIDA ST is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLORIDA ST 65.9, OPPONENT 63.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--N CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
The average score was N CAROLINA 77.5, OPPONENT 66.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - N Carolina by 1; O/U 138
*STAN'S POWER LINE - N Carolina -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - N Carolina -0.83
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 50% of their 3 point shots or better.
(52-21 since 1997.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-28)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 70.5, Opponent 69.3 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (25.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-10).
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*** #727 PROVIDENCE @ #728 LOUISVILLE (-13.5, O/U NA) ***
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While its hopes of claiming a share of the regular-season Big East championship remain slim, Louisville is closing in on earning a double-bye in the conference tournament for the second time in three seasons. Looking to avenge January's loss to Providence, the No. 11 Cardinals will attempt to go undefeated at home in conference play for the first time since joining the Big East in 2005 when the teams meet Wednesday night. Louisville (22-7, 11-5), which won the regular-season conference championship in 2008-09 en route to earning a double-bye and winning the Big East tournament title, is tied with No. 15 St. Johns for third place.
The Cardinals and Red Storm sit 1 1/2 games back of No. 8 Notre Dame and two behind No. 4 Pittsburgh with two games to play. Louisville defeated the Panthers 62-59 in overtime Sunday, improving to 8-0 in conference play at home. The Irish have one game remaining while Pitt has two. "I'd rather play," coach Rick Pitino said of earning a double-bye. "To tell you the truth, I think we'd rather play because of all the time we've missed, playing helps us. "Certainly, getting a double-bye with what we thought before the season is a tremendous accomplishment for the guys. But, we would rather play."
Junior guard Kyle Kuric, who scored five of his 12 points in overtime, put Louisville up five with less than one second remaining and seemed to have clinched the game before a male cheerleader grabbed the ball and tossed it in the air, resulting in a delay of game technical foul. The Panthers made their two free throws but couldn't get off a potentially game-tying heave. Louisville will be short-handed Wednesday after sophomore forward Rakeem Buckles tore his right ACL on Sunday. Guard Russ Smith will also miss the game with a concussion. Preston Knowles was held to eight points on 3-of-12 shooting versus Pittsburgh and is averaging 9.3 points, 5.0 less than his team-leading mark on 27.1 percent shooting in his last four games.
Despite his recent struggles, the senior guard earned high praise from his coach. "I think there's a lot of moments with Preston," Pitino said. "It’s been a joy to coach him between the lines. He gives you everything he has all the time. He's been one of the best captains I've had because he's selfless (and) cares about the team winning." Knowles was held to a season-low two points on 1-of-8 shooting in a 72-67 loss Jan. 22 at Providence, and he will look to bounce back in front of the home crowd on senior night. The Cardinals had won nine straight against the Friars before Marshon Brooks, who ranks second in the country with 25.1 points per game, scored 27.
"Obviously we're playing a team that we lost to earlier in the year," Pitino said. "We were able to contain Marshon Brooks for a half and then in the second half he really hurt us. We've gotta do better things and let our players understand that playing at home on senior night does not gain a victory, it's your defense and your offense." Providence (14-15, 3-13) has lost 15 straight on the road dating to last season and hasn't beaten a Top 25 opponent as the visiting team since defeating then-No. 4 Connecticut 66-56 on Jan. 24, 2004. The Friars fell 86-62 to Marquette on Sunday for their sixth straight loss as Brooks followed a 52-point performance against Notre Dame with 17.
--PROVIDENCE is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was PROVIDENCE 32.0, OPPONENT 40.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--PROVIDENCE is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game this season.
The average score was PROVIDENCE 31.6, OPPONENT 43.3 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Louisville by 15; O/U 149
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Louisville -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Louisville -14.17
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Underdogs of 10 or more points (PROVIDENCE) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after a loss by 15 points or more.
(28-6 since 1997.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (10-24)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 14.4
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 76.1 (Average point differential = -6.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (55.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (LOUISVILLE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off 3 straight losses against conference rivals.
(32-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 68.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.8, Opponent 29.9 (Total first half points scored = 63.7)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (50-21).
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*** #753 CONNECTICUT @ #754 WEST VIRGINIA (-5, O/U 131) ***
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There's a four-way tie for seventh place in the powerful Big East. Those teams are desperately trying to avoid playing on the first day of next week's conference tournament. West Virginia and No. 16 Connecticut are in that group, and they'll meet Wednesday night in Morgantown. The Mountaineers (18-10, 9-7), Huskies (21-7, 9-7), Marquette and Cincinnati are all tied for seventh. The top eight teams avoid playing Tuesday when the Big East tournament begins at Madison Square Garden. Wednesday's action will be pivotal since the Golden Eagles host the Bearcats in a game that begins an hour after this one starts.
"It's hard to tell what's gonna happen," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. "We're tied with Connecticut, we play Connecticut. The winner of that's going to be a game up on the other one. "Marquette plays Cincinnati. I think it's a four-way tie." Huggins' team gets its first look at Kemba Walker, who is second in the Big East with 22.8 points per game. The coach, however, employs a 1-3-1 zone defense that has limited opponents to 28.1 percent shooting from 3-point range for one of the best marks in the nation.
The Huskies have seen a steady diet of zone to contain Walker and are shooting 32.6 percent on 3-pointers in Big East play for the fifth worst mark in the conference. UConn, though, turned in its best 3-point shooting effort in a Big East game by making 10 of 19 attempts in Sunday's 67-59 win at Cincinnati. Freshmen Jeremy Lamb and Roscoe Smith each made three 3s and combined for 28 points. "I thought that we really got great combinations from tonight," coach Jim Calhoun said. "The key tonight was just to come out and play some basketball, advance our seeding, and get towards the NCAA tournament."
Calhoun was back on the sideline after missing Thursday's 74-67 overtime loss to Marquette because he was with his family after the death of his sister-in-law. Sunday's win capped a tumultuous week in which Calhoun admitted mistakes that led to recruiting violations that have resulted in numerous sanctions. "I've had some very good teams over the last few years," Calhoun said Sunday. "This is one of my favorite teams of all-time." The hot shooting against the Bearcats came on the heels of UConn's worst Big East 3-point shooting performance, 5 of 22 against Marquette. West Virginia is unsure what to expect.
"You watch the Marquette game, they had shots, they just didn't make them," Huggins said. "You watch the Cincinnati game, they made them. Roscoe Smith goes 1 for 8 against Marquette and he's what, 3 for 4 from 3 against Cincinnati. I don't know how you explain that, same shots." West Virginia, 10-2 at home, is enduring its own shooting woes at 37.6 percent overall while splitting its last four games. Darryl Bryant's 15 points helped the Mountaineers overcome 39.6 percent shooting in Sunday's 65-54 victory at Rutgers. The Huskies have won nine of the last 11 meetings, including four of five on the road.
--W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was W VIRGINIA 71.2, OPPONENT 64.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CONNECTICUT is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 29.2, OPPONENT 29.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - W Virginia by 4; O/U 134.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - W Virginia -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - W Virginia -3.73
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(80-43 since 1997.) (65.0%, +32.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.9
The average score in these games was: Team 69.7, Opponent 67.6 (Total points scored = 137.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 61 (48% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (22-20).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (48-26).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (64-34).
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*** #779 PITTSBURGH (-11, O/U 124.5) @ #780 SOUTH FLORIDA ***
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Pittsburgh won't have any margin for error as it tries to win the outright Big East crown for the first time in seven seasons. The fourth ranked Panthers play their final road game Wednesday night when they try to hand South Florida a 12th straight loss against a ranked opponent. Pittsburgh (25-4, 13-3) is one-half game ahead of No. 8 Notre Dame for first place in the Big East. The Fighting Irish have the tiebreaker by virtue of their 56-51 victory Jan. 24. The Panthers can ensure their first title since 2003-04 by beating South Florida (9-20, 3-13) on Wednesday and struggling No. 19 Villanova on Saturday.
Pittsburgh would have been in position to clinch in Florida if not for a 62-59 overtime loss at then-No. 16 Louisville on Sunday. The Panthers came up short after shooting 56.0 percent in the second half to force overtime following a 32.0 percent effort over the first 20 minutes. "I like how we responded in the second half," coach Jamie Dixon said. "I thought it was something we could build upon. We attacked the zone and were getting good shots." Ashton Gibbs, playing his third game since missing three with an MCL injury in his left knee, had 14 points but shot 3 of 11.
The Panthers have lost two of three games since getting their leading scorer back after going 3-0 in the stretch without him. "Actually thought Gibbs got good shots," Dixon said. "Sometimes shots fall and sometimes they don't. But he had 14 points. He was 2 of 6 from 3-point land and had good looks. I don't want to read too much into that." Gibbs leads the Big East with a 46.1 percent mark on 3-pointers, although he is 3 for 11 in his last two games. One of the victories Pitt posted without Gibbs was a 67-55 home win over South Florida on Feb. 16. The final margin was deceiving since the Bulls were within two points with eight minutes left.
The Panthers held a 26-9 edge in rebounds in the second half to finish with a 40-18 advantage. Nasir Robinson grabbed 10 boards and Gary McGhee and Gilbert Brown each had seven. Those players also helped limit Bulls leading scorer Augustus Gilchrist to 10 points. Gilchrist, averaging 13.0 points, had a career-high 32 in Saturday's 86-76 win at DePaul that snapped a six-game skid. "He is definitely a rhythm guy," coach Stan Heath said about Gilchrist. "He has the ability to score around the basket, face up and hit 3s.
He's got a lot of firepower to his game, and our guys did a good job of finding him. They knew he was hot." Gilchrist was out with a sprained ankle in South Florida's 70-61 upset at home of Pitt last Jan. 31. Dominique Jones, currently with the Dallas Mavericks, scored 37 to lead the Bulls. South Florida has suffered without Jones, averaging a Big East-worst 62.3 points. The Bulls have dropped all nine games against ranked opponents this season, losing four at home by an average of 16.0 points.
--PITTSBURGH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 73.9, OPPONENT 59.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite or pick vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 28.6, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Pittsburgh by 13; O/U 129.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -10
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -12.33
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (S FLORIDA) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=42% on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(90-50 since 1997.) (64.3%, +35.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 126
The average score in these games was: Team 66, Opponent 57 (Total points scored = 123.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 66 (48.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-9).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-22).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (68-40).
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*** #781 TEXAS A&M @ #782 KANSAS (-13.5, O/U 138) ***
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Some recent poor play by the Big 12's other top 10 team has left Kansas in prime position to claim its seventh consecutive conference title. However, with a tough final week ahead, the Jayhawks understand accomplishing that feat will not be easy. The second-ranked Jayhawks can clinch a share of the regular-season Big 12 championship with a sixth straight victory over No. 24 Texas A&M on Wednesday night at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas (27-2, 12-2) has averaged 87.7 points and shot 54.3 percent while winning three straight since losing at Kansas State on Valentine's Day.
That run, combined with seventh-ranked Texas losing three of four games, has the Jayhawks one-half game ahead of the Longhorns atop the Big 12 standings. Texas finishes the regular season with a tough test at Baylor on Saturday. After facing the Aggies (22-6, 9-5), Kansas plays at No. 22 Missouri on Saturday. "Our two games, it may be the toughest week we've had all year," Kansas coach Bill Self told the school's official website. "Those are hard games." With senior night on tap, Self expects his team to be focused as they try to nail down No. 1 seeds in both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments.
"Every year, we go in wanting to win the Big 12 and win the Big 12 tournament and then have your best opportunity to be a No. 1 seed," senior guard Tyrel Reed said. "We've got two more games and I guess kind of now the ball's in our court and we've got to take care of business." Though Kansas is 16-1 all-time against the Aggies and won the last five by an average of 12.2 points, Self won't take anything for granted. Texas A&M has won five of six overall and needs a win to secure the No. 3 seed in next week's Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, Mo. "I think if we can approach it as just keep trying to get better, we will get better,"
Texas A&M coach and former Jayhawk guard Mark Turgeon told his school's official website. "We will just stay confident. We should be a confident team. We've won five out of six so we should be a very confident team right now. "We haven't played too well in the state of Kansas since I've been the coach here, so hopefully we'll play a little bit better on Wednesday." To do so, the Aggies likely must contain Kansas stars Marcus and Markieff Morris. The twin brothers combined for 42 points and 19 rebounds in Saturday's 82-70 win at Oklahoma.
Marcus Morris (17.3 points per game) has totaled 50 points the last two games while Markieff (13.6 ppg) has averaged 20.0 with 10.7 boards the last three. Texas A&M also will try to bounce back after its five-game winning streak was snapped with a 58-51 loss at Baylor on Saturday. Forward Khris Middleton had 12 points with 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. The sophomore averages a team-leading 14.6 points but totaled 17 in two games versus Kansas in 2009-10. The Aggies have dropped nine straight on the road against Top 25 opponents since beating the then-No. 6 Jayhawks 69-66 on Feb. 3, 2007.
--KANSAS is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
The average score was KANSAS 43.4, OPPONENT 29.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--KANSAS is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was KANSAS 86.9, OPPONENT 71.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Kansas by 15.5; O/U 139.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Kansas -18
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Kansas -15.66
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (KANSAS) - hot team - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games against opponent hot team - having won 15 or more of their last 20 games.
(52-16 since 1997.) (76.5%, +34.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.8, Opponent 35.2 (Average first half point differential = -3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-6).
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*** #789 CLEMSON @ #790 DUKE (-13, O/U 133.5) ***
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Trying to bounce back from its first defeat in almost a month and not look ahead to an important regular-season finale against its biggest rival, Duke expects to get back to business in its final home game. The fourth-ranked Blue Devils look to remain atop the ACC and continue their recent overall dominance at Cameron Indoor Stadium with a 14th consecutive home win over Clemson on Wednesday night. Duke's second stint atop the AP Poll lasted one week after its seven-game winning streak was snapped with a 64-60 loss at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Though the Blue Devils (26-3, 12-2) shot 39.7 percent and blew a late six-point lead, coach Mike Krzyzewski felt playing a close game in a hostile environment was a good experience.
"It was like an NCAA game," said Krzyzewski, whose team remains in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. "It was that level. I don't fault my guys. They're playing well." Knowing Saturday's visit to No. 13 North Carolina could be for the outright ACC title and top seed in the league tournament, the Blue Devils have reason to remain focused on Wednesday's contest. Duke is trying for a 36th straight victory at Cameron Indoor in the final home game for star seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Singler (17.4 points per game), who has totaled 50 points the last two games, is a four-year starter in search of his 120th victory at Duke. "Kyle is all about winning, that's why he'll wind up being one of the top two or three kids in the history of our program and in the history of the NCAA," Krzyzewski said.
"When you win a national championship during your four years, you already set yourself apart." Smith, the league's top scorer at 21.3 points per game, scored 22 in each of the Blue Devils' two victories over the Tigers last season. Duke has won two straight and 24 of 26 versus Clemson (19-9, 8-6), which has not won at Cameron Indoor since Jan. 4, 1995. Eight of the teams' last 10 meetings in Durham have been decided by 10 or more points. The Blue Devils broke out to a 30-12 halftime lead in last season's 74-53 home win over the Tigers, who know they are in for a major challenge while trying to improve their NCAA tournament resume with a signature win.
Clemson, 3-6 away from home this season, has lost seven straight road games against Top 25 opponents since winning at No. 21 Virginia Tech 75-74 on March 4, 2007. "We're going to face some adversity, it's not going to be an easy game," Clemson guard Tanner Smith told the school's official website. The Tigers look for a third consecutive victory overall after beating Wake Forest 63-49 on Saturday. Demontez Stitt and Jerai Grant each scored 14 points as Clemson built a 33-20 halftime lead. Averaging a team-high 14.1 points this season, Stitt has totaled 32 on 10-of-19 shooting in two games at Cameron Indoor. The Tigers averaged 50.0 points on 35.1 percent shooting in both losses to Duke in 2009-10.
--CLEMSON is 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEMSON 65.2, OPPONENT 68.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEMSON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEMSON 62.5, OPPONENT 65.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Duke by 15; O/U 137.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Duke -15.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Duke -15.19
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (DUKE) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less.
(44-14 since 1997.) (75.9%, +28.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (4-58)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 13.6
The average score in these games was: Team 61.8, Opponent 72.9 (Average point differential = -11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (31.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams against the total (DUKE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%).
(54-22 since 1997.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 64.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.3, Opponent 28.8 (Total first half points scored = 62.1)
The situation's record this season is: (6-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (45-16).
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*** #791 NEW MEXICO @ #792 BYU (-12, O/U 150) ***
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Coming off a huge conference win over a top 10 opponent, BYU has vaulted to its highest ranking in 23 years and is being mentioned as a possible No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament. Now, the Cougars will have to deal with the suspension of one of their better players. With Brandon Davies being held out for the rest of the season for violating the school's honor code, Jimmer Fredette and No. 3 BYU look to clinch a share of the Mountain West title and avenge their only conference loss of the season when they host New Mexico on Wednesday night. BYU (27-2, 13-1) defeated then-No. 6 San Diego State 80-67 on Saturday in a much-hyped battle for first place in the conference.
Fredette had 25 points and nine assists for the Cougars, who swept the season series from the Aztecs to take a one-game lead with two to play. "A big win for those players and I'm really proud of them," BYU coach Dave Rose said. The Cougars jumped four spots in the poll, giving them their highest position since they were third in 1988. After Saturday's victory, Rose was asked if he thought his team deserved a top seed for the NCAAs. "I don't really think about it," he said. "The only time I actually think about seeding is when guys ask me. But realistically, I'll enjoy this for a few hours and then we'll get ready for New Mexico." "New Mexico has been good against us the last couple of years."
The Cougars, though, will be without Davies, a sophomore forward who has started 26 of 29 games this season, averaging 11.1 points, a team-high 6.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 24.9 minutes. Rose said he would address the issue surrounding Davies following Wednesday's game. Rose's team has lost three straight to the Lobos (18-11, 6-8), with BYU being ranked 13th or higher each time, and four of the last five matchups. New Mexico had lost 16 of the previous 20 meetings before this five-game stretch. The Lobos knocked off the then-No. 9 Cougars 86-77 at The Pit on Jan. 29. Fredette had 32 points and went 6 of 9 from 3-point range, but he was limited to five free-throw attempts.
Lobos freshman Tony Snell made three 3-pointers in the final five minutes and New Mexico pulled off its biggest home upset since a 77-74 win over then-No. 3 Utah in 1998. Lobos coach Steve Alford went with a four-guard lineup to push the ball, knowing the plan could backfire because BYU leads the conference with 82.9 points per game. The Cougars, however, went cold, missing nine of their final 11 shots after leading by two with six minutes to play. That is the Cougars' only loss in their last 18 games, and they hope things will go better on their home court. BYU has won all 12 games at the Marriott Center this season by an average of 21.9 points, and is 27-1 there since the start of last season.
The lone blemish was an 83-81 defeat to then-No. 10 New Mexico on Feb. 27, 2010. While the Lobos won the conference title in 2009-10, they haven't enjoyed as much success this season. New Mexico, which snapped a four-game slide with an 80-70 victory over TCU on Saturday, needs to win its final two games to avoid finishing with a losing conference record for the first time since 2006-07. That was the season before Alford took over in Albuquerque. Senior Dairese Gary had another outstanding performance for the Lobos on Saturday, finishing with a career-best 32 points and going 11 of 14 from the floor. Gary, who scored 14 points against BYU in January, is averaging 26.3 in his last three games, 11.8 more than his team-leading average.
--BYU is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was BYU 39.1, OPPONENT 30.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW MEXICO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW MEXICO 30.6, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - BYU by 14.5; O/U 149.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - BYU -13
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - BYU -14.59
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (BYU) - excellent FT shooting team (>=73%) against a good FT shooting team (69-73%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 15+ games.
(55-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +27.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.8, Opponent 35.3 (Average first half point differential = -5.5)
The situation's record this season is: (13-9).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-14).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (71-44).
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*** #795 UTAH STATE (-7, O/U 133.5) @ #796 NEW MEXICO STATE ***
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Heading into the final week of the regular season, Utah State already has locked up a school-record fourth consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. Still, coach Stew Morrill knows this isn't the time for his team to let up, especially with a matchup in Las Cruces next on the schedule. Back in the rankings after a one-week absence, No. 25 Utah State tries to win its fifth straight Wednesday night and spoil stumbling New Mexico State's chances of becoming the other team to earn a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Utah State (26-3, 13-1) already has a bye into the semifinals next week in Las Vegas, having wrapped up the No. 1 seed, and finished with a perfect home record in WAC play for the fourth straight season with Saturday's 84-68 victory over Idaho. Morrill, though, sees plenty of challenges in this game even though New Mexico State (14-15, 8-6) has lost three straight. "New Mexico State is undefeated at home (6-0) this season, in conference play, and they get really juiced up when they play us," Morrill said.
"The fact that we have won the regular season, some of the past history we have with them, and the fact that they beat us in the tournament last season, I am sure they will be ready to go." New Mexico State, which defeated Utah State in the 2010 WAC tournament title game after losing its final two regular-season games, must win this contest and Saturday's matchup with Nevada to grab the No. 2 seed and the other double-bye. Coach Marvin Menzies' team now looks to halt its second-worst losing streak of the season, which includes a 76-70 defeat to Hawaii on Saturday.
Though this skid includes a non-conference home loss to Northern Colorado, New Mexico State has won its six WAC games at the Pan American Center by an average of 15.0 points. The team has shot 51.0 percent in those victories while holding the opposition to 41.4 percent. "They're big, they're quick, they cause you all kinds of problems," Morrill said. "They always play us man-to-man it seems, and they get into it." So does Morrill's team, among the nation's best in field-goal percentage defense (38.8) and scoring defense at 59.1 points per game. Utah State, also among the nation's best in rebounding margin at 8.7, outrebounded New Mexico State 45-30 and held it to 37.7 percent from the floor in a 59-49 home win Jan. 22.
Troy Gillenwater led New Mexico State with 20 points and is second in the WAC with 19.3 per game, but he could struggle Wednesday after a thumb injury on his shooting hand contributed to him missing eight of 10 from the field and scoring just six points at Hawaii. Utah State's Tai Wesley, among the conference leaders with 14.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, scored a team-high 18 points in the Jan. 22 victory. He had 14 in Utah State's last trip to Las Cruces a 55-52 loss Jan. 2, 2010. New Mexico State has won five of its last six home games in the series.
--NEW MEXICO ST is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 31.7, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW MEXICO ST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game after 15+games since 1997.
The average score was NEW MEXICO ST 64.5, OPPONENT 70.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah St by 8; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Utah St -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Utah St -7.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Road teams against the total (UTAH ST) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, hot shooting team - 3 straight games making >=47% of their shots.
(40-13 since 1997.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 140.9
The average score in these games was: Team 68.4, Opponent 64.7 (Total points scored = 133.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (62.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-8).
