Guaranteed Pick: Scott Spreitzer
Game: St. Johns at Richmond Mar 18 2009 7:00PM
Prediction: Richmond
Reason: I'm laying the points with the Spiders on Wednesday night. The Red Storm haven't had too much success against well-defending units and that's exactly what they're facing tonight. St. John's hit just over 41% of their shots away from home this season, including a miserable 28% from behind the arc. The struggles led to a 3-10 SU road mark (4-9 ATS). But the bad road numbers don't end there for the Johnnies. Norm Roberts' squad also turns the ball over 15 times per game on the road, compared to just 11 assists per game, and they struggle on the glass. The mistake-prone offense faces a Richmond team that has forced 16 tpg at home, five more turnovers per game than assists allowed. The Spiders' backcourt is rock-solid with Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez averaging a combined 32 ppg. The Spiders will bust the Johnnies' zones on one end, then disrupt the Red Storm's shooting with one-heckuva matchup zone of their own. St. John's completely collapsed against Marquette, trailing 38-10 at the half. I expect a hangover and then some for Roberts' crew tonight. St. John's covered just 8-of-20 as an underdog this season and they went 9-14 ATS against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Spiders covered at a 62% clip this season, overall. I'm laying the points with Richmond on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.