I will say that his magic seems to be gone. People get a little too excited sometimes when a capper gets hots (they all come back down to earth eventually). I remember a couple of months ago, a couple of posters were going crazy over College Fund. The minute they started crowing, the record went into the tank. For those that caught OWAD's streak in the early stage, they did quite well. Anyone on him lately have not fared that well. Perhaps he'll make a comeback, but I'm not holding my breath. Good luck for anyone that continues to follow him (and don't take this post personally).
StatSystems Sports NCAAB Report, Wednesday 3/16/11
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STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 3/16/11
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• REMARKABLE TURNAROUND! •••
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The two lowest-rated teams in the RPI to qualify for the NCAA tournament meet in the first round, as Texas-San Antonio takes on Alabama State on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio. The victor will try to become the first No. 16 seed to upend a No. 1 seed in the history of the NCAA tournament. Adding to the gravity of the challenge? That game will be against Ohio State, the No. 1 team in the country in the final national polls. Neither program has ever won an NCAA tournament game.
The Roadrunners (19-13) had to beat Texas-Arlington in their regular-season finale just to qualify for the Southland tournament as the seventh seed. They then won four straight games to garner the automatic bid for the NCAAs. Senior point guard Devin Gibson is the straw that stirs the drink for UTSA. He leads the Roadrunners in scoring (17.0 ppg) and assists (5.6 apg), and his 5.4 rebounds per game rank second on the squad. Gibson had four double-doubles and two triple-doubles this season.
Alabama State (17-17) is far and away the lowest-ranked team in the RPI to make the NCAA field. The Hornets were 263rd. No other NCAA participant had an RPI of 200 or lower. The Hornets were a dreadful 6-16 heading into the month of February. But coach Lewis Jackson’s team won 11 of the next 12 games, including a run to the SWAC tournament title. Chris Duncan was the SWAC Defensive Player of the Year this season, helping Alabama State lead the conference in field-goal percentage defense, while averaging 1.7 blocks per game. Tramayne Moorer leads the Hornets in scoring at 12.5 and was named SWAC tournament MVP.
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***** WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16TH NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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••• QUICK HITS •••
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• NCAA TOURNAMENT - OPENING ROUND (UD Arena - Dayton, OH)
ALABAMA ST vs. TX-SAN ANTONIO, 6:30 PM ET TRU
---------------------------------------------
--ALABAMA ST: 6-1 ATS in all neutral court games.
--TX-SAN ANTONIO: N/A.
SWAC teams are 1-16 in NCAAs, with Ark-Pine Bluff winning LY in a play-in game vs Winthrop; Alabama State is 0-4 in NCAAs the last ten years- they won 11 of last 12 games, are team that uses its bench more than anyone in country. Texas-San Antonio won its last five games, with three of last four wins by 5 or less points. Southland teams are 1-8 last eight years in NCAA's; this is their first play-in game since '01. ASU is an aggressive defensive team that allowed 58.3 ppg in SWAC tourney.
• VA COMMONWEALTH vs. USC, 9:00 PM ET TRU
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--VA COMMONWEALTH: 6-0 Under off conference loss.
--USC: 11-22 ATS as a favorite.
USC has long trip east to play VCU squad that is 3-5 in last eight games, but a team that beat UCLA 89-85 on a neutral court last fall. O'Neill has been reinstated as coach after off-court incident; Trojans are 3-3 in this event since '07- they improved a lot when transfer PG Fontan became eligible in December. VCU is 319th in country in defensive rebounding, bad sign vs USC squad that won six of last eight games and has quality size up front. CAA road dogs of 8 or less points are 20-13 vs spread. Pac-10 road favorites of less than 7 points are just 2-7. The Trojan’s record (19-14 straight up) doesn’t look like much until you realize they played the nation’s 39th toughest schedule and have five wins over teams in the RPI top 50.
• REST OF WEDNESDAY'S CARD
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-- Texas Southern is 0-4 vs Big 12 teams this season, losing to Oklahoma by 30, Kansas State by 24, Iowa State by 11, Baylor by 8 points.
-- Nebraska lost four of last five games, Wichita lost three of five; Big 12 road underdogs are 9-12 against the spread this season.
-- ACC double digit home favorites are 14-17 vs spread in non-league tilts. FAU lost to Florida by 13 points, George Mason by 15.
-- Milwaukee lost by 21 to Wisconsin; only Big 11 team they played; Big 11 home favorites of 7+ points are 21-15 against the spread.
-- Bethune-Cookman lost to Arizona by 33, Baylor by 44 in two games vs top 50 teams. Not sure Virginia Tech will feel like playing in NIT again after yet another near-miss with getting into the NCAAs.
-- Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. SEC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Cal won four of its last five games. Ole Miss is 4-5 in its last nine.
-- Pac-10 home favorites of 4+ points are 27-18 vs spread. Big West road dogs of less than 11 points are 15-18 vs spread. Long Beach lost in Big West title when they had won league by four games. 49ers lost by 27 at Washington, by 17 at Arizona State, in two games vs Pac-10 teams.
-- A-14 home favorites of 10 or less points are 17-13 vs spread. MAC road dogs of less than 13 points are 25-16 vs spread. Miami won by 11 in upset over Xavier, lost to Dayton by 12, in games vs A-14 foes.
-- Central Florida was 14-0 at one point; they're 19-11 now; C-USA home favorites of less than 10 points are 5-14-1 vs spread. St Bonaventure got beat by 9 by Marshall at home, in its only game vs C-USA opponent.
-- Big Sky teams are 8-11 vs spread in non-league games where spread was 4 or less points. Duquesne lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Pac-10 double digit home favorites are 19-14 vs spread in non-league games. Weber State lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14 or more points.
-- OVC road dogs of 10 or less points are 10-15 vs spread. MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 8-13. Western Michigan won eight of its last ten games. Tennessee Tech won seven of its last eight games.
-- Experienced Iona squad won nine of last 10 games after losing by 5 in MAAC final. Gaels lost by 10 at Cleveland State in November. MAAC teams are 9-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 3 or less.
-- Single digit home favorites from C-USA are 5-14-1 vs spread in its non-league games. Oral Roberts won 10 of last 11 games, beating Rice by a hoop in their only game against a C-USA opponent.
-- Single digit WAC road underdogs are 10-5 against spread in non-league games. WCC home favorites of less than 6 points are 9-4 vs spread.
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*** NCAA TOURNAMENT TREND OVERLOAD ***
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Because “March Madness” comes and goes so quickly and there are so many teams involved, it can be easy to forget recent trends and rely on anecdotal evidence. We here at Stat/Systems Sports believe that you have to recognize some recent patterns of betting behavior to be successful in whatever you want to play in terms of the NCAA Tournament. We have broken down wins by SU, ATS, and have included Over/Under information as well. We’ll let you know what we’ve found in a round-by-round and seed-by-seed analysis, and don't forget to check back tomorrow as we dissect the major conferences, while not forgetting to include the lesser-known conferences as well.
Starting with the Basics. The list below shows the straight up & against the spread records for better seeds over the past 10 tournaments. As you can see, the frequency of upsets has increased in each of the past four tournaments in terms of SU records. In the past two years, better seeds have seen their ATS success rate drop 10% from 2008.
• BETTER SEED
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2001: 42-21 (67%) SU, 33-29-1 (53%) ATS
2002: 46-16 (74%) SU, 30-29-3 (51%) ATS
2003: 42-21 (67%) SU, 25-36-2 (41%) ATS
2004: 47-16 (75%) SU, 36-27 (57%) ATS
2005: 43-19 (69%) SU, 27-35 (44%) ATS
2006: 42-21 (67%) SU, 25-36-2 (41%) ATS
2007: 50-12 (81%) SU, 36-24-2 (60%) ATS
2008: 47-13 (78%) SU, 38-22 (63%) ATS
2009: 47-16 (75%) SU, 32-29-2 (53%) ATS
2010: 42-20 (68%) SU, 32-29-3 (53%) ATS
• OVERALL TOURNAMENT TRENDS
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-- After three consecutive chalky tournaments, last year’s version was full of upsets both SU and ATS. Favorites were just 43-21 SU (67.0%) after winning a whopping 78.0% of the time (148-43) from 2008 to 2010. In terms of ATS, the 2010 tournament produced a losing ATS record (30-31-3) for favorites after a highly successful 58.0% ATS mark (108-79) from 2008 to 2010.
-- 2009 was the highest scoring year since 2005 with games averaging 141.6 PPG, and the OVER the total going 36-27-1 (57.0%), which was actually down from a 60.0% OVER mark in 2008. But last year, the games averaged only 137.4 PPG with the OVER occurring just 46.0% of the time (29-34-1).
-- Double-digit favorites had been almost unbeatable over a three-year span from 2008 to 2010, going 44-1 SU & 26-16-3 ATS (62.0%). In 2010, the SU record was still stellar at 12-2, but the ATS mark was a sub.-500 record of 6-7-1 (46.0%). This was more indicative of the tournament from 2000 to 2007, when 10-point favorites had a poor ATS record of 50-64 (44.0%).
-- Better seeds as underdogs were 3-1 SU & ATS in 2010. This marked just the second time these superior-seeded teams were above .500 in a year in the past six tournaments with combined 10-17 SU & 10-16 ATS records from 2005-2009.
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••• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS ••• - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situational Systems for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* ALABAMA ST/TX-SAN ANTONIO UNDER 128.5 - (81.6%)
4* ALABAMA ST/TX-SAN ANTONIO UNDER 60 - (81.2%)
4* TENNESSEE TECH/W MICHIGAN OVER 146.5 - (80.6%)
3* COLORADO -12 - (76.7%)
3* DUQUESNE -1 - (74.3%)
3* TX-SAN ANTONIO -4 - (74.0%)
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (ALABAMA ST) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.
(31-7 since 1997.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 125.9
The average score in these games was: Team 57.6, Opponent 59 (Total points scored = 116.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (59% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (ALABAMA ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a combined score of 115 points or less.
(39-9 since 1997.) (81.2%, +29.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 56.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 25.3, Opponent 25.8 (Total first half points scored = 51.1)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-6).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TENNESSEE TECH) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.9
The average score in these games was: Team 79.2, Opponent 77.1 (Total points scored = 156.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (77.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (41-21).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (COLORADO) - after a combined score of 155 points or more, with four starters returning from last season.
(33-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +22.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.2, Opponent 27.4 (Average first half point differential = +17.9)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (73-52).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MONTANA) - after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less against opponent after scoring 80 points or more.
(52-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%, +32.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (51-21 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 65.7, Opponent 61.6 (Average point differential = +4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27 (38.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-71).
--PLAY AGAINST - Neutral court teams as an underdog (ALABAMA ST) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament.
(37-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.0%, +22.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (50-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.7
The average score in these games was: Team 76, Opponent 59.1 (Average point differential = +16.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (35.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-62).
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NOTE: The Stat/Systems Sports Power Ratings (Stan's Forecaster) are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. These ratings, which are updated on a daily basis are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a great long-term handicapping tool.
* Stat/Systems Sports renowned Outplay Factor Ratings, which are also updated on a daily basis have proven over the years to be a great team strength indicator: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared.
* Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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*** #625 VA COMMONWEALTH VS. #626 USC (-4.5, O/U 127) ***
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The inaugural "Field of 68" play-in format for the 2011 NCAA Tournament wraps up Wednesday night, as the USC Trojans from the Pac-10 Conference take on the Rams of Virginia Commonwealth out of the Colonial Athletic Association at UD Arena in Dayton for a chance to claim the 11th seed in the Southwest Region. Dubbed the "First Four", Wednesday's matchup is the final of four games over two days at UD Arena as part of the NCAA's re-formatted expansion of the traditional 64-team field. The winner of this matchup moves on to face Georgetown, seeded sixth in the Southwest, Friday in Chicago at the United Center. This game marks the first-ever meeting between USC and VCU on the hardwood.
Virginia Commonwealth secured an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after a strong showing in the CAA this season. The Rams entered the conference tournament as the No. 4 seed, defeated Drexel (62-60) in the quarterfinals, then took down top-seeded George Mason (79-63) in the semis before losing to Old Dominion (70-65) in the final game. VCU had a rather ambitious non- conference schedule that included five teams that made this tournament and a few other tough matchups, resulting in wins over Wofford and UCLA as well as defeats to Tennessee, Richmond and UAB. This will be the Rams' fourth NCAA appearance since 2004 and their 11th overall. They are 5-9 in the event all- time. The 2011 tournament will be the club's first as an at-large team since the 1983-84 season. VCU's last go-round was in 2009 when it lost to UCLA in the first round. The Rams had lost four straight CAA games heading into the conference tourney, their first such occurrence since the 1999-2000 campaign.
USC also received an at-large bid to this tournament after logging a 19-14 record this season, which included a 10-8 mark in Pac-10 play. The Trojans got by Cal, 70-56, in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament before falling to top seed and regular-season champion Arizona, 67-62, in the semis. USC finished strong overall, though, winning six of its last eight games, including regular-season triumphs over Arizona and eventual Pac-10 tourney champ Washington. The Trojans' non-conference schedule also yielded impressive victories against teams from this year's field, Texas and Tennessee, as well as a two-point loss at Kansas. USC is appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time in the last 11 seasons and making its 16th appearance overall. Over that time, the Trojans have managed a 12-16 record and last participated in 2009 when they dismissed Boston College in the first round before falling to eventual runner-up Michigan State in the second.
The Rams are led by senior Jamie Skeen, who ranks among the CAA's top 10 in scoring (15.3 ppg, seventh), rebounding (7.5 rpg, seventh), field goal percentage (.527, fourth) and blocks (1.2 bpg, 10th). Junior Bradford Burgess averages 14.0 points and 6.1 rebounds while shooting a healthy 48.8 percent from the field and 40.1 percent on 55 made three-pointers. Senior Brandon Rozzell adds 11.3 ppg and paces the club with 61 treys on 38.6 percent shooting, while fellow senior Joey Rodriguez chips in 10.6 ppg and 60 triples on a 33.9 percent accuracy. Rodriguez also averages 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals and tops the conference with 4.8 assists per game. Overall, VCU's offense ranked third in the CAA at 71.5 ppg, fourth in free-throw percentage (.719) but just eighth in field goal percentage (.435). The three-point game is a big part of the Rams' success, and although their total of 278 topped the league, 35.9 percent accuracy from beyond stood just sixth in conference. Helping the Rams' cause are the league's best turnover margin (plus-3.32) and their 8.5 steals per game. VCU wound up third with 14.2 assists per game. A 10th-place finish in rebounding margin (minus-3.7) leaves something to be desired, as does a defense that ranked seventh in the CAA at 67.4 ppg against.
The Trojans look to a number of sources for their scoring with six players averaging at least 9.9 ppg, though the offense ranked eighth in the Pac-10 at 66.8 ppg. It was USC's defense that made its mark on the 2010-11 season, easily placing at the top of the conference in holding teams to 62.8 ppg -- a total that ranked 48th in the country. The effort lifted the team's scoring margin to fifth in the league (plus-4.1) while the Trojans ended second in the Pac-10 in field goal percentage defense (.412). USC itself shot 44.5 percent from the floor, placing sixth in conference, but also 65.3 percent on free throws which had them ranked ninth. USC was also ninth in assists with just 12.0 per game. Junior Nikola Vucevic leads the scoring attack with a solid 17.3 ppg, also good for third place in the league. Vucevic also tops all Pac-10 competitors in rebounding with 10.2 per contest while shooting better than 50.0 percent (.504) from the field. Jio Fontan chips in 10.4 ppg and Alex Stepheson adds 10.0 ppg and a stout 9.2 rpg. Both Donte Smith and Maurice Jones add reliable depth by posting identical 9.9 ppg averages. Smith dropped the conference's fifth-most three-pointers with 73 on 36.1 percent shooting.
BOTTOM LINE: Both teams have proven worthy of an 11 seed in this tournament, but only one can move on to face Georgetown in the second round. The Trojans certainly took on tougher competition overall and have a defense that can stand up against the best offenses, giving them the edge in what figures to be an entertaining matchup.
--USC is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was USC 67.2, OPPONENT 63.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--USC is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
The average score was USC 65.8, OPPONENT 59.4 - (Rating = 5*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - USC by 3; O/U 132
*STAN'S POWER LINE - USC -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - USC -2.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (VA COMMONWEALTH) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
(44-12 since 1997.) (78.6%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 57.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 27.5 (Total first half points scored = 53.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-6).
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*** #629 NEBRASKA @ #630 WICHITA ST (-4.5, O/U 123.5) ***
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The first round of the 2011 NIT features a matchup between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Wichita State Shockers. Up next for the winner of this game is a second-round clash with either top- seeded Virginia Tech or eighth-seeded Bethune-Cookman. Seeded fifth in this tournament, Nebraska has a long NIT history, as the program is making its 17th appearance and is a solid 23-15 all-time in the event. The Cornhuskers, who won their lone NIT title back in 1996, participated in the 2008 and 2009 editions of this tournament but didn't achieve their desired level of success. Nebraska, 19-12 overall this year, is bidding for its 13th 20-win season in program history and second in Doc Sadler's five years as head coach. Prior to Sadler's arrival, the Cornhuskers had not registered a 20-win season since 1998-99.
As for Wichita State, a four seed, it has posted a disappointing 3-11 mark in 11 previous NIT appearances. The Shockers, who played in last season's event, come into the NIT with a 24-8 record after a second-place finish in the Missouri Valley Conference during the regular season. Fourth-year head coach Gregg Marshall returned four starters from a team that won 25 games last season, so there is plenty of experience to speak of. Nebraska owns a 6-5 series lead over Wichita State, and the teams haven't met since 1993. There is just one double-digit scorer on the Wichita State roster, as J.T. Durley is netting 11.4 ppg.
Still, the Shockers are scoring 72.2 ppg, a solid output by most standards. They are outrebounding opponents by 8.2 rpg and limiting them to 61.9 ppg on 41.2 percent shooting from the field. Clearly, the strong defense and solid rebounding has been the key to the team's 24 victories. Players such as David Kyles and Toure Murry are solid contributors as the offensive end. Kyles checks in with 9.9 ppg, while Murry adds 9.2 ppg despite his inconsistent shooting. Last time out, Wichita State fell to Indiana State in the MVC Tournament, as 33.9 percent shooting from the field was the most obvious reason for the setback.
Far from explosive at the offensive end of the court, Nebraska is scoring a modest 66.9 ppg through 31 games. Fortunately for the Cornhuskers, they are one of the best defensive teams in all of college basketball, limiting foes to 60.0 ppg on 38.6 percent field goal efficiency. They are outrebounding opponents by nearly four boards per tilt, an obvious key to their success. Lance Jeter paces Nebraska with 11.6 ppg, 142 assists and 54 steals. Jorge Brian Diaz is the only other double-digit scorer on the roster, as he provides 10.5 ppg. The Cornhuskers failed to win a game in the recently completed Big 12 Conference Tournament, as they fell to Oklahoma State by one point in the first round of that event. Jeter scored 17 points in that setback.
--WICHITA ST is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was WICHITA ST 35.4, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEBRASKA is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was NEBRASKA 27.8, OPPONENT 32.7 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Wichita St by 5; O/U 131
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Wichita St -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Wichita St -4.09
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (WICHITA ST) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.
(105-54 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.0%, +45.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.8, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = -1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (14-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-27).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (161-120).
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
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When you are ready to step up an into the challenge of advanced sports handicapping, be sure to check out Stan 'The Man's ALL NEW Stat/Systems Sheets. They are loaded with power ratings, computer predictions, matchups, betting trends, systems, statistics, schedules and results. Once you have sampled my Stat/Systems Sheets, you will no longer need free picks, consensus plays, or other professional handicapping services!
Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• REMARKABLE TURNAROUND! •••
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The two lowest-rated teams in the RPI to qualify for the NCAA tournament meet in the first round, as Texas-San Antonio takes on Alabama State on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio. The victor will try to become the first No. 16 seed to upend a No. 1 seed in the history of the NCAA tournament. Adding to the gravity of the challenge? That game will be against Ohio State, the No. 1 team in the country in the final national polls. Neither program has ever won an NCAA tournament game.
The Roadrunners (19-13) had to beat Texas-Arlington in their regular-season finale just to qualify for the Southland tournament as the seventh seed. They then won four straight games to garner the automatic bid for the NCAAs. Senior point guard Devin Gibson is the straw that stirs the drink for UTSA. He leads the Roadrunners in scoring (17.0 ppg) and assists (5.6 apg), and his 5.4 rebounds per game rank second on the squad. Gibson had four double-doubles and two triple-doubles this season.
Alabama State (17-17) is far and away the lowest-ranked team in the RPI to make the NCAA field. The Hornets were 263rd. No other NCAA participant had an RPI of 200 or lower. The Hornets were a dreadful 6-16 heading into the month of February. But coach Lewis Jackson’s team won 11 of the next 12 games, including a run to the SWAC tournament title. Chris Duncan was the SWAC Defensive Player of the Year this season, helping Alabama State lead the conference in field-goal percentage defense, while averaging 1.7 blocks per game. Tramayne Moorer leads the Hornets in scoring at 12.5 and was named SWAC tournament MVP.
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NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
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***** WEDNESDAY, MARCH 16TH NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL KNOWLEDGE *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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••• QUICK HITS •••
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• NCAA TOURNAMENT - OPENING ROUND (UD Arena - Dayton, OH)
ALABAMA ST vs. TX-SAN ANTONIO, 6:30 PM ET TRU
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--ALABAMA ST: 6-1 ATS in all neutral court games.
--TX-SAN ANTONIO: N/A.
SWAC teams are 1-16 in NCAAs, with Ark-Pine Bluff winning LY in a play-in game vs Winthrop; Alabama State is 0-4 in NCAAs the last ten years- they won 11 of last 12 games, are team that uses its bench more than anyone in country. Texas-San Antonio won its last five games, with three of last four wins by 5 or less points. Southland teams are 1-8 last eight years in NCAA's; this is their first play-in game since '01. ASU is an aggressive defensive team that allowed 58.3 ppg in SWAC tourney.
• VA COMMONWEALTH vs. USC, 9:00 PM ET TRU
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--VA COMMONWEALTH: 6-0 Under off conference loss.
--USC: 11-22 ATS as a favorite.
USC has long trip east to play VCU squad that is 3-5 in last eight games, but a team that beat UCLA 89-85 on a neutral court last fall. O'Neill has been reinstated as coach after off-court incident; Trojans are 3-3 in this event since '07- they improved a lot when transfer PG Fontan became eligible in December. VCU is 319th in country in defensive rebounding, bad sign vs USC squad that won six of last eight games and has quality size up front. CAA road dogs of 8 or less points are 20-13 vs spread. Pac-10 road favorites of less than 7 points are just 2-7. The Trojan’s record (19-14 straight up) doesn’t look like much until you realize they played the nation’s 39th toughest schedule and have five wins over teams in the RPI top 50.
• REST OF WEDNESDAY'S CARD
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-- Texas Southern is 0-4 vs Big 12 teams this season, losing to Oklahoma by 30, Kansas State by 24, Iowa State by 11, Baylor by 8 points.
-- Nebraska lost four of last five games, Wichita lost three of five; Big 12 road underdogs are 9-12 against the spread this season.
-- ACC double digit home favorites are 14-17 vs spread in non-league tilts. FAU lost to Florida by 13 points, George Mason by 15.
-- Milwaukee lost by 21 to Wisconsin; only Big 11 team they played; Big 11 home favorites of 7+ points are 21-15 against the spread.
-- Bethune-Cookman lost to Arizona by 33, Baylor by 44 in two games vs top 50 teams. Not sure Virginia Tech will feel like playing in NIT again after yet another near-miss with getting into the NCAAs.
-- Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. SEC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-6 vs spread. Cal won four of its last five games. Ole Miss is 4-5 in its last nine.
-- Pac-10 home favorites of 4+ points are 27-18 vs spread. Big West road dogs of less than 11 points are 15-18 vs spread. Long Beach lost in Big West title when they had won league by four games. 49ers lost by 27 at Washington, by 17 at Arizona State, in two games vs Pac-10 teams.
-- A-14 home favorites of 10 or less points are 17-13 vs spread. MAC road dogs of less than 13 points are 25-16 vs spread. Miami won by 11 in upset over Xavier, lost to Dayton by 12, in games vs A-14 foes.
-- Central Florida was 14-0 at one point; they're 19-11 now; C-USA home favorites of less than 10 points are 5-14-1 vs spread. St Bonaventure got beat by 9 by Marshall at home, in its only game vs C-USA opponent.
-- Big Sky teams are 8-11 vs spread in non-league games where spread was 4 or less points. Duquesne lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Pac-10 double digit home favorites are 19-14 vs spread in non-league games. Weber State lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 14 or more points.
-- OVC road dogs of 10 or less points are 10-15 vs spread. MAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 8-13. Western Michigan won eight of its last ten games. Tennessee Tech won seven of its last eight games.
-- Experienced Iona squad won nine of last 10 games after losing by 5 in MAAC final. Gaels lost by 10 at Cleveland State in November. MAAC teams are 9-6 vs spread in non-league games where spread is 3 or less.
-- Single digit home favorites from C-USA are 5-14-1 vs spread in its non-league games. Oral Roberts won 10 of last 11 games, beating Rice by a hoop in their only game against a C-USA opponent.
-- Single digit WAC road underdogs are 10-5 against spread in non-league games. WCC home favorites of less than 6 points are 9-4 vs spread.
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*** NCAA TOURNAMENT TREND OVERLOAD ***
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Because “March Madness” comes and goes so quickly and there are so many teams involved, it can be easy to forget recent trends and rely on anecdotal evidence. We here at Stat/Systems Sports believe that you have to recognize some recent patterns of betting behavior to be successful in whatever you want to play in terms of the NCAA Tournament. We have broken down wins by SU, ATS, and have included Over/Under information as well. We’ll let you know what we’ve found in a round-by-round and seed-by-seed analysis, and don't forget to check back tomorrow as we dissect the major conferences, while not forgetting to include the lesser-known conferences as well.
Starting with the Basics. The list below shows the straight up & against the spread records for better seeds over the past 10 tournaments. As you can see, the frequency of upsets has increased in each of the past four tournaments in terms of SU records. In the past two years, better seeds have seen their ATS success rate drop 10% from 2008.
• BETTER SEED
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2001: 42-21 (67%) SU, 33-29-1 (53%) ATS
2002: 46-16 (74%) SU, 30-29-3 (51%) ATS
2003: 42-21 (67%) SU, 25-36-2 (41%) ATS
2004: 47-16 (75%) SU, 36-27 (57%) ATS
2005: 43-19 (69%) SU, 27-35 (44%) ATS
2006: 42-21 (67%) SU, 25-36-2 (41%) ATS
2007: 50-12 (81%) SU, 36-24-2 (60%) ATS
2008: 47-13 (78%) SU, 38-22 (63%) ATS
2009: 47-16 (75%) SU, 32-29-2 (53%) ATS
2010: 42-20 (68%) SU, 32-29-3 (53%) ATS
• OVERALL TOURNAMENT TRENDS
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-- After three consecutive chalky tournaments, last year’s version was full of upsets both SU and ATS. Favorites were just 43-21 SU (67.0%) after winning a whopping 78.0% of the time (148-43) from 2008 to 2010. In terms of ATS, the 2010 tournament produced a losing ATS record (30-31-3) for favorites after a highly successful 58.0% ATS mark (108-79) from 2008 to 2010.
-- 2009 was the highest scoring year since 2005 with games averaging 141.6 PPG, and the OVER the total going 36-27-1 (57.0%), which was actually down from a 60.0% OVER mark in 2008. But last year, the games averaged only 137.4 PPG with the OVER occurring just 46.0% of the time (29-34-1).
-- Double-digit favorites had been almost unbeatable over a three-year span from 2008 to 2010, going 44-1 SU & 26-16-3 ATS (62.0%). In 2010, the SU record was still stellar at 12-2, but the ATS mark was a sub.-500 record of 6-7-1 (46.0%). This was more indicative of the tournament from 2000 to 2007, when 10-point favorites had a poor ATS record of 50-64 (44.0%).
-- Better seeds as underdogs were 3-1 SU & ATS in 2010. This marked just the second time these superior-seeded teams were above .500 in a year in the past six tournaments with combined 10-17 SU & 10-16 ATS records from 2005-2009.
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••• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS ••• - All Types - NCAAB - Displays the Highest Rated Active Super Situational Systems for Upcoming Games. This includes all situation types including ATS, money line, total, halftime, and teaser.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* ALABAMA ST/TX-SAN ANTONIO UNDER 128.5 - (81.6%)
4* ALABAMA ST/TX-SAN ANTONIO UNDER 60 - (81.2%)
4* TENNESSEE TECH/W MICHIGAN OVER 146.5 - (80.6%)
3* COLORADO -12 - (76.7%)
3* DUQUESNE -1 - (74.3%)
3* TX-SAN ANTONIO -4 - (74.0%)
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral court teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (ALABAMA ST) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.
(31-7 since 1997.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 125.9
The average score in these games was: Team 57.6, Opponent 59 (Total points scored = 116.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 23 (59% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
--PLAY UNDER - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (ALABAMA ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a combined score of 115 points or less.
(39-9 since 1997.) (81.2%, +29.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 56.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 25.3, Opponent 25.8 (Total first half points scored = 51.1)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-6).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TENNESSEE TECH) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.9
The average score in these games was: Team 79.2, Opponent 77.1 (Total points scored = 156.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (77.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (41-21).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (COLORADO) - after a combined score of 155 points or more, with four starters returning from last season.
(33-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +22.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 45.2, Opponent 27.4 (Average first half point differential = +17.9)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (73-52).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MONTANA) - after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less against opponent after scoring 80 points or more.
(52-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%, +32.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (51-21 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5
The average score in these games was: Team 65.7, Opponent 61.6 (Average point differential = +4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 27 (38.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-9).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-71).
--PLAY AGAINST - Neutral court teams as an underdog (ALABAMA ST) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament.
(37-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.0%, +22.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (50-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 13.7
The average score in these games was: Team 76, Opponent 59.1 (Average point differential = +16.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 19 (35.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-62).
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NOTE: The Stat/Systems Sports Power Ratings (Stan's Forecaster) are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. These ratings, which are updated on a daily basis are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a great long-term handicapping tool.
* Stat/Systems Sports renowned Outplay Factor Ratings, which are also updated on a daily basis have proven over the years to be a great team strength indicator: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared.
* Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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*** #625 VA COMMONWEALTH VS. #626 USC (-4.5, O/U 127) ***
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The inaugural "Field of 68" play-in format for the 2011 NCAA Tournament wraps up Wednesday night, as the USC Trojans from the Pac-10 Conference take on the Rams of Virginia Commonwealth out of the Colonial Athletic Association at UD Arena in Dayton for a chance to claim the 11th seed in the Southwest Region. Dubbed the "First Four", Wednesday's matchup is the final of four games over two days at UD Arena as part of the NCAA's re-formatted expansion of the traditional 64-team field. The winner of this matchup moves on to face Georgetown, seeded sixth in the Southwest, Friday in Chicago at the United Center. This game marks the first-ever meeting between USC and VCU on the hardwood.
Virginia Commonwealth secured an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after a strong showing in the CAA this season. The Rams entered the conference tournament as the No. 4 seed, defeated Drexel (62-60) in the quarterfinals, then took down top-seeded George Mason (79-63) in the semis before losing to Old Dominion (70-65) in the final game. VCU had a rather ambitious non- conference schedule that included five teams that made this tournament and a few other tough matchups, resulting in wins over Wofford and UCLA as well as defeats to Tennessee, Richmond and UAB. This will be the Rams' fourth NCAA appearance since 2004 and their 11th overall. They are 5-9 in the event all- time. The 2011 tournament will be the club's first as an at-large team since the 1983-84 season. VCU's last go-round was in 2009 when it lost to UCLA in the first round. The Rams had lost four straight CAA games heading into the conference tourney, their first such occurrence since the 1999-2000 campaign.
USC also received an at-large bid to this tournament after logging a 19-14 record this season, which included a 10-8 mark in Pac-10 play. The Trojans got by Cal, 70-56, in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament before falling to top seed and regular-season champion Arizona, 67-62, in the semis. USC finished strong overall, though, winning six of its last eight games, including regular-season triumphs over Arizona and eventual Pac-10 tourney champ Washington. The Trojans' non-conference schedule also yielded impressive victories against teams from this year's field, Texas and Tennessee, as well as a two-point loss at Kansas. USC is appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth time in the last 11 seasons and making its 16th appearance overall. Over that time, the Trojans have managed a 12-16 record and last participated in 2009 when they dismissed Boston College in the first round before falling to eventual runner-up Michigan State in the second.
The Rams are led by senior Jamie Skeen, who ranks among the CAA's top 10 in scoring (15.3 ppg, seventh), rebounding (7.5 rpg, seventh), field goal percentage (.527, fourth) and blocks (1.2 bpg, 10th). Junior Bradford Burgess averages 14.0 points and 6.1 rebounds while shooting a healthy 48.8 percent from the field and 40.1 percent on 55 made three-pointers. Senior Brandon Rozzell adds 11.3 ppg and paces the club with 61 treys on 38.6 percent shooting, while fellow senior Joey Rodriguez chips in 10.6 ppg and 60 triples on a 33.9 percent accuracy. Rodriguez also averages 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals and tops the conference with 4.8 assists per game. Overall, VCU's offense ranked third in the CAA at 71.5 ppg, fourth in free-throw percentage (.719) but just eighth in field goal percentage (.435). The three-point game is a big part of the Rams' success, and although their total of 278 topped the league, 35.9 percent accuracy from beyond stood just sixth in conference. Helping the Rams' cause are the league's best turnover margin (plus-3.32) and their 8.5 steals per game. VCU wound up third with 14.2 assists per game. A 10th-place finish in rebounding margin (minus-3.7) leaves something to be desired, as does a defense that ranked seventh in the CAA at 67.4 ppg against.
The Trojans look to a number of sources for their scoring with six players averaging at least 9.9 ppg, though the offense ranked eighth in the Pac-10 at 66.8 ppg. It was USC's defense that made its mark on the 2010-11 season, easily placing at the top of the conference in holding teams to 62.8 ppg -- a total that ranked 48th in the country. The effort lifted the team's scoring margin to fifth in the league (plus-4.1) while the Trojans ended second in the Pac-10 in field goal percentage defense (.412). USC itself shot 44.5 percent from the floor, placing sixth in conference, but also 65.3 percent on free throws which had them ranked ninth. USC was also ninth in assists with just 12.0 per game. Junior Nikola Vucevic leads the scoring attack with a solid 17.3 ppg, also good for third place in the league. Vucevic also tops all Pac-10 competitors in rebounding with 10.2 per contest while shooting better than 50.0 percent (.504) from the field. Jio Fontan chips in 10.4 ppg and Alex Stepheson adds 10.0 ppg and a stout 9.2 rpg. Both Donte Smith and Maurice Jones add reliable depth by posting identical 9.9 ppg averages. Smith dropped the conference's fifth-most three-pointers with 73 on 36.1 percent shooting.
BOTTOM LINE: Both teams have proven worthy of an 11 seed in this tournament, but only one can move on to face Georgetown in the second round. The Trojans certainly took on tougher competition overall and have a defense that can stand up against the best offenses, giving them the edge in what figures to be an entertaining matchup.
--USC is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was USC 67.2, OPPONENT 63.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--USC is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
The average score was USC 65.8, OPPONENT 59.4 - (Rating = 5*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - USC by 3; O/U 132
*STAN'S POWER LINE - USC -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - USC -2.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (VA COMMONWEALTH) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
(44-12 since 1997.) (78.6%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 57.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 25.7, Opponent 27.5 (Total first half points scored = 53.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-6).
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*** #629 NEBRASKA @ #630 WICHITA ST (-4.5, O/U 123.5) ***
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The first round of the 2011 NIT features a matchup between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Wichita State Shockers. Up next for the winner of this game is a second-round clash with either top- seeded Virginia Tech or eighth-seeded Bethune-Cookman. Seeded fifth in this tournament, Nebraska has a long NIT history, as the program is making its 17th appearance and is a solid 23-15 all-time in the event. The Cornhuskers, who won their lone NIT title back in 1996, participated in the 2008 and 2009 editions of this tournament but didn't achieve their desired level of success. Nebraska, 19-12 overall this year, is bidding for its 13th 20-win season in program history and second in Doc Sadler's five years as head coach. Prior to Sadler's arrival, the Cornhuskers had not registered a 20-win season since 1998-99.
As for Wichita State, a four seed, it has posted a disappointing 3-11 mark in 11 previous NIT appearances. The Shockers, who played in last season's event, come into the NIT with a 24-8 record after a second-place finish in the Missouri Valley Conference during the regular season. Fourth-year head coach Gregg Marshall returned four starters from a team that won 25 games last season, so there is plenty of experience to speak of. Nebraska owns a 6-5 series lead over Wichita State, and the teams haven't met since 1993. There is just one double-digit scorer on the Wichita State roster, as J.T. Durley is netting 11.4 ppg.
Still, the Shockers are scoring 72.2 ppg, a solid output by most standards. They are outrebounding opponents by 8.2 rpg and limiting them to 61.9 ppg on 41.2 percent shooting from the field. Clearly, the strong defense and solid rebounding has been the key to the team's 24 victories. Players such as David Kyles and Toure Murry are solid contributors as the offensive end. Kyles checks in with 9.9 ppg, while Murry adds 9.2 ppg despite his inconsistent shooting. Last time out, Wichita State fell to Indiana State in the MVC Tournament, as 33.9 percent shooting from the field was the most obvious reason for the setback.
Far from explosive at the offensive end of the court, Nebraska is scoring a modest 66.9 ppg through 31 games. Fortunately for the Cornhuskers, they are one of the best defensive teams in all of college basketball, limiting foes to 60.0 ppg on 38.6 percent field goal efficiency. They are outrebounding opponents by nearly four boards per tilt, an obvious key to their success. Lance Jeter paces Nebraska with 11.6 ppg, 142 assists and 54 steals. Jorge Brian Diaz is the only other double-digit scorer on the roster, as he provides 10.5 ppg. The Cornhuskers failed to win a game in the recently completed Big 12 Conference Tournament, as they fell to Oklahoma State by one point in the first round of that event. Jeter scored 17 points in that setback.
--WICHITA ST is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was WICHITA ST 35.4, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEBRASKA is 1-10 against the 1rst half line (-10.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was NEBRASKA 27.8, OPPONENT 32.7 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Wichita St by 5; O/U 131
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Wichita St -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Wichita St -4.09
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (WICHITA ST) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game.
(105-54 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.0%, +45.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.8, Opponent 29.3 (Average first half point differential = -1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (14-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-27).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (161-120).
*** #633 WI-MILWAUKEE @ #634 NORTHWESTERN (-10, O/U 138) ***
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Welsh-Ryan Arena is the setting for tonight's first round National Invitational Tournament tilt between the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Panthers and the fourth-seeded Northwestern Wildcats. Since Milwaukee joined the Division I ranks in 1990, the Panthers and the Wildcats have met just once. The meeting, which occurred in 1998, saw Northwestern earn an 80-44 victory. Tonight's victor will advance to the second round, for a date with the McNeese State/Boston College winner.
Milwaukee will be making just its second appearance in the NIT. The Panthers last competed in the tournament in 2004, beating Rice in the opening round, before falling to Boise State. This season, Milwaukee earned its postseason invitation by winning the Horizon League regular season title. The Panthers won their final nine conference games of the regular season before making a run to the Horizon League Tournament Championship game, where they fell to Butler. At the helm for Milwaukee is Horizon League Coach of the Year Rob Jeter, who won his 100th career on the final day of the regular season.
On the floor, the Panthers are led by senior forward Anthony Hill. A First Team All-Horizon League selection, Hill leads Milwaukee in both scoring (15.5 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg). He is one of only three players in the conference to record a pair of 30-point performances this season. Adding to the offensive production are Tone Boyle and Tony Meier, who score 13.1 and 11.8 ppg, respectively. Point guard Kaylon Williams, who recorded a triple-double earlier this season, was named to the league's all-newcomer team. He has handed out 172 assists thus far, which registers as the second-most in a single season in over a century of Milwaukee basketball. He adds 8.2 ppg, as the Panthers average 68.9 ppg. Defensively, the allow 69.7 ppg on 45.1 percent shooting.
Northwestern is making its school-record third consecutive postseason appearance. The Wildcats have dropped a first round NIT matchup in each of the last two seasons. They have made six appearances in the tournament overall, posting a 2-5 record thus far. Northwestern, which received an at-large bid this season, took top-ranked Ohio State to overtime in a quarterfinal matchup of last week's Big Ten Tournament, before eventually falling 67-61. Senior guard Michael Thompson and junior forward John Shurna are the keys to the Northwestern attack. Thompson, a consensus All-Big Ten Third Team selection, ranks second on the squad in scoring (15.9 ppg) and first in assists (132) and three-pointers made (82).
In addition, he was named to the Big Ten All-Tournament team after setting a conference tourney record with 35 points in a opening round victory over Minnesota and then tallying 15 points in a near-upset of Ohio State. Shurna, an All-Big Ten Third Team selection by the league's coaches, paces Northwestern in scoring (16.5 ppg) on 48.6 percent shooting. He adds 4.5 rpg and has recorded a team-leading 27 blocks. Drew Crawford contributes 12.2 ppg, as the Wildcats manage 71.6 ppg on the whole. They allow 67.9 ppg on the defensive end of the floor and struggle on the glass, posting a minus 4 rebounding margin.
BOTTOM LINE: Milwaukee closed the regular season on a tear, but if the Big Ten Tournament was any indication, Northwestern should have the advantage in this one. The Wildcats will likely be emboldened by their scrappy fight against the nation's top team and Thompson has risen his play to extraordinary heights of late.
--NORTHWESTERN is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 69.0, OPPONENT 70.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--WI-MILWAUKEE is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was WI-MILWAUKEE 35.6, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Northwestern by 9.5; O/U 140.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Northwestern -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Northwestern -8.81
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - Home teams against the total (NORTHWESTERN) - after 2 straight games committing 8 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.
(53-25 since 1997.) (67.9%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.4, Opponent 66.4 (Total points scored = 138.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 46 (59.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (43-18).
--PLAY ON - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (WI-MILWAUKEE) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) - 15+ games.
(77-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.5%, +36.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.3, Opponent 30.9 (Average first half point differential = -0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (14-12).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (51-22).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (151-121).
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*** #637 OLE MISS @ #638 CALIFORNIA (-4.5, O/U 147) ***
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The fifth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels and the fourth-seeded California Golden Bears meet at Haas Pavilion tonight, for a National Invitational Tournament opening round tilt. Tonight's victor will advance to the second round, for a date with the Texas Southern/Colorado winner. Ole Miss is making its fourth postseason appearance in the past five years. The Rebels are 13-9 all-time in 10 NIT appearances, and have reached the NIT Final Four in their last two appearances (2008,2010), going 6-2 over that span. This year, Ole Miss finished at 20-13, reaching the 20-win mark for the fourth time in five seasons under head coach Andy Kennedy. The Rebels were ousted by Kentucky, 75-66, in the quarterfinals of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.
California, which sports a 17-14 record, was bounced from the Pac-10 Conference Tournament in the opening round with a 70-56 loss to USC. The Golden Bears will be making their seventh NIT appearance. They won the tourney's title in 1999 and reached the quarterfinals in both 1987 and 2000. Most recently, in 2008, Cal reached the second round after downing New Mexico at Haas Pavilion in the opening round. Tonight's game marks the first-ever meeting between Ole Miss and California. Cal uses a balanced attack to net 72.3 ppg on the year. Junior forward Harper Kamp and junior guard Jorge Gutierrez each score 14.3 ppg to pace the team.
Kamp, an All-Pac-10 Second Team member, is efficient, shooting 53.1 percent from the field. He also pulls down 5.6 rpg. Gutierrez, who was known primarily as a strong defender, expanded his offensive role this season, seeing his scoring average jump, while leading the team in assists (140). He received All-Pac-10 First Team honors, as well as Pac-10 defensive team honors. Bolstering the attack is Pac-10 Freshman of the Year Allen Crabbe, who ranks third on the team in scoring at 13.3 ppg and has knocked down a team-high 55 three-pointers on 39.9 percent shooting from deep. Senior center Markhuri Sanders-Frison scores 10.9 ppg and leads the team at 7.4 rpg. The Bears are 15-4 this season when outrebounding their opponent. Defensively, they allow 71.6 ppg.
Senior point guard Chris Warren is the engine that makes Ole Miss go. The all- league performer currently ranks second in the SEC in scoring (19 ppg), first in free throw percentage (93.3), fifth in assists (3.8 spg), fourth in three- pointers made (2.7), third in assist/turnover ratio (1.8/1) and third in minutes played (34.7 mpg). He has tallied 20+ points in 16 games this season and has led the team in scoring and assists on 24 occasions. Fellow senior and backcourt mate Zach Graham is a capable asset as well. Graham ranks second on the team and 15th in the SEC in scoring (14.1 ppg) and third in the league in free throw percentage (87.1). Terrance Henry adds 9.6 ppg, as the Rebels score 73.9 ppg. Reginald Buckner and Henry average 6.5 and 6.1 rpg, respectively, leading to a plus 2.4 rebounding advantage on the season. Defensively, Ole Miss allows 68.9 ppg.
--CALIFORNIA is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 71.3, OPPONENT 75.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--OLE MISS is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 69.7, OPPONENT 67.8 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - California by 3.5; O/U 147.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - California -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - California -1.89
_________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (OLE MISS) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.9
The average score in these games was: Team 79.2, Opponent 77.1 (Total points scored = 156.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (77.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (41-21).
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*** #639 LONG BEACH ST @ #640 WASHINGTON ST (-9.5, O/U 145) ***
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The Washington State Cougars make their second appearance in the National Invitation Tournament in the last three years, as they host the Long Beach State 49ers in the first round tonight at Beasley Coliseum in Pullman. The Cougars, who have won all three first-round NIT games they have hosted over the years, enters this year's version with an overall record of 19-12 in 2010-11. WSU, which is 4-4 in the NIT over the years, lost the final game of the regular season to UCLA by a score of 58-54 and was then turned away by Washington in the Pac-10 Conference Tournament as well, 89-87. The winner of tonight's matchup will take on Oklahoma State in the second round.
As for the 49ers, they earned an automatic spot in the NIT after winning the Big West Conference regular season with a record of 14-2. LBSU, which was the only team in the Big West to have more than 18 total victories, sporting a mark of 22-11, defeated UC Irvine and UC Riverside in the Big West Conference Tournament before falling to UC Santa Barbara (64-56) in the title game over the weekend. Long Beach State has a record of 2-5 in this tournament since first appearing in 1980, the team's most recent invite coming in 2000. The all-time series between these two teams is knotted at one game apiece, with Washington State posting a 79-69 win in the very first encounter back in 1962 and the 49ers claiming an 80-74 win at the Dayton Tournament in 1975.
The 49ers had a lineup that most of the Big West envied as all five starters for LBSU earned some level of conference recognition after such a successful campaign. Tops on the list was Casper Ware who became the first player in league history to be named both the Big West Player of the Year and the BWC Defensive Player of the Year in 2010-11. Ware led the group in scoring (17.0 ppg), assists (146) and steals (56) and was also one of the top three-point threats for the group as well. Larry Anderson, who was named to the All-Big West First Team along with Ware, was responsible for 14.5 ppg as he shot 53.4 percent from the floor and also cleared 6.3 rpg to go along with 87 assists and 50 steals in his 27 appearances. T.J. Robinson may have slumped a bit at the free-throw line (.585), but there's no denying his efforts in the paint for the 49ers which led to 13.5 points and a team-best 10.0 rebounds per contest.
While Long Beach State has Ware and Anderson doing much of the work for the squad, the Cougars lean even more heavily on Klay Thompson who became the program's third-leading scorer of all-time this season. Just a junior, Thompson has already tallied 1,687 points and became the fastest player in school history to reach 1,000 points, doing so in just 63 games. Thompson is the school's all-time leader in three-pointers made (237) and holds the single-season mark in that department as well with 93. Suspended for the UCLA outing due to a drug charge, Thompson heads into this meeting carrying a scoring average of 22.1 ppg, followed by Faisal Aden who was responsible for 13.1 ppg in 26 minutes per game. DeAngelo Casto fills out the list of double- digit scorers for the Cougars with his 12.1 ppg, shooting an impressive 59.7 percent from the floor, but a lackluster 62.1 percent at the charity stripe over the course of 29 games.
--WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 76.3, OPPONENT 73.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--LONG BEACH ST is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was LONG BEACH ST 78.5, OPPONENT 82.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Washington St by 8.5; O/U 143.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington St -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Washington St -8.39
_____________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games.
(51-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 70.1, Opponent 71.8 (Average point differential = -1.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-36).
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Welsh-Ryan Arena is the setting for tonight's first round National Invitational Tournament tilt between the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Panthers and the fourth-seeded Northwestern Wildcats. Since Milwaukee joined the Division I ranks in 1990, the Panthers and the Wildcats have met just once. The meeting, which occurred in 1998, saw Northwestern earn an 80-44 victory. Tonight's victor will advance to the second round, for a date with the McNeese State/Boston College winner.
Milwaukee will be making just its second appearance in the NIT. The Panthers last competed in the tournament in 2004, beating Rice in the opening round, before falling to Boise State. This season, Milwaukee earned its postseason invitation by winning the Horizon League regular season title. The Panthers won their final nine conference games of the regular season before making a run to the Horizon League Tournament Championship game, where they fell to Butler. At the helm for Milwaukee is Horizon League Coach of the Year Rob Jeter, who won his 100th career on the final day of the regular season.
On the floor, the Panthers are led by senior forward Anthony Hill. A First Team All-Horizon League selection, Hill leads Milwaukee in both scoring (15.5 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg). He is one of only three players in the conference to record a pair of 30-point performances this season. Adding to the offensive production are Tone Boyle and Tony Meier, who score 13.1 and 11.8 ppg, respectively. Point guard Kaylon Williams, who recorded a triple-double earlier this season, was named to the league's all-newcomer team. He has handed out 172 assists thus far, which registers as the second-most in a single season in over a century of Milwaukee basketball. He adds 8.2 ppg, as the Panthers average 68.9 ppg. Defensively, the allow 69.7 ppg on 45.1 percent shooting.
Northwestern is making its school-record third consecutive postseason appearance. The Wildcats have dropped a first round NIT matchup in each of the last two seasons. They have made six appearances in the tournament overall, posting a 2-5 record thus far. Northwestern, which received an at-large bid this season, took top-ranked Ohio State to overtime in a quarterfinal matchup of last week's Big Ten Tournament, before eventually falling 67-61. Senior guard Michael Thompson and junior forward John Shurna are the keys to the Northwestern attack. Thompson, a consensus All-Big Ten Third Team selection, ranks second on the squad in scoring (15.9 ppg) and first in assists (132) and three-pointers made (82).
In addition, he was named to the Big Ten All-Tournament team after setting a conference tourney record with 35 points in a opening round victory over Minnesota and then tallying 15 points in a near-upset of Ohio State. Shurna, an All-Big Ten Third Team selection by the league's coaches, paces Northwestern in scoring (16.5 ppg) on 48.6 percent shooting. He adds 4.5 rpg and has recorded a team-leading 27 blocks. Drew Crawford contributes 12.2 ppg, as the Wildcats manage 71.6 ppg on the whole. They allow 67.9 ppg on the defensive end of the floor and struggle on the glass, posting a minus 4 rebounding margin.
BOTTOM LINE: Milwaukee closed the regular season on a tear, but if the Big Ten Tournament was any indication, Northwestern should have the advantage in this one. The Wildcats will likely be emboldened by their scrappy fight against the nation's top team and Thompson has risen his play to extraordinary heights of late.
--NORTHWESTERN is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 69.0, OPPONENT 70.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--WI-MILWAUKEE is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was WI-MILWAUKEE 35.6, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Northwestern by 9.5; O/U 140.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Northwestern -9
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Northwestern -8.81
_____________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - Home teams against the total (NORTHWESTERN) - after 2 straight games committing 8 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.
(53-25 since 1997.) (67.9%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 133.8
The average score in these games was: Team 72.4, Opponent 66.4 (Total points scored = 138.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 46 (59.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-10).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (27-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (43-18).
--PLAY ON - An underdog vs. the 1rst half line (WI-MILWAUKEE) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) - 15+ games.
(77-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.5%, +36.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.3, Opponent 30.9 (Average first half point differential = -0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (14-12).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (51-22).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (151-121).
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*** #637 OLE MISS @ #638 CALIFORNIA (-4.5, O/U 147) ***
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The fifth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels and the fourth-seeded California Golden Bears meet at Haas Pavilion tonight, for a National Invitational Tournament opening round tilt. Tonight's victor will advance to the second round, for a date with the Texas Southern/Colorado winner. Ole Miss is making its fourth postseason appearance in the past five years. The Rebels are 13-9 all-time in 10 NIT appearances, and have reached the NIT Final Four in their last two appearances (2008,2010), going 6-2 over that span. This year, Ole Miss finished at 20-13, reaching the 20-win mark for the fourth time in five seasons under head coach Andy Kennedy. The Rebels were ousted by Kentucky, 75-66, in the quarterfinals of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.
California, which sports a 17-14 record, was bounced from the Pac-10 Conference Tournament in the opening round with a 70-56 loss to USC. The Golden Bears will be making their seventh NIT appearance. They won the tourney's title in 1999 and reached the quarterfinals in both 1987 and 2000. Most recently, in 2008, Cal reached the second round after downing New Mexico at Haas Pavilion in the opening round. Tonight's game marks the first-ever meeting between Ole Miss and California. Cal uses a balanced attack to net 72.3 ppg on the year. Junior forward Harper Kamp and junior guard Jorge Gutierrez each score 14.3 ppg to pace the team.
Kamp, an All-Pac-10 Second Team member, is efficient, shooting 53.1 percent from the field. He also pulls down 5.6 rpg. Gutierrez, who was known primarily as a strong defender, expanded his offensive role this season, seeing his scoring average jump, while leading the team in assists (140). He received All-Pac-10 First Team honors, as well as Pac-10 defensive team honors. Bolstering the attack is Pac-10 Freshman of the Year Allen Crabbe, who ranks third on the team in scoring at 13.3 ppg and has knocked down a team-high 55 three-pointers on 39.9 percent shooting from deep. Senior center Markhuri Sanders-Frison scores 10.9 ppg and leads the team at 7.4 rpg. The Bears are 15-4 this season when outrebounding their opponent. Defensively, they allow 71.6 ppg.
Senior point guard Chris Warren is the engine that makes Ole Miss go. The all- league performer currently ranks second in the SEC in scoring (19 ppg), first in free throw percentage (93.3), fifth in assists (3.8 spg), fourth in three- pointers made (2.7), third in assist/turnover ratio (1.8/1) and third in minutes played (34.7 mpg). He has tallied 20+ points in 16 games this season and has led the team in scoring and assists on 24 occasions. Fellow senior and backcourt mate Zach Graham is a capable asset as well. Graham ranks second on the team and 15th in the SEC in scoring (14.1 ppg) and third in the league in free throw percentage (87.1). Terrance Henry adds 9.6 ppg, as the Rebels score 73.9 ppg. Reginald Buckner and Henry average 6.5 and 6.1 rpg, respectively, leading to a plus 2.4 rebounding advantage on the season. Defensively, Ole Miss allows 68.9 ppg.
--CALIFORNIA is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 71.3, OPPONENT 75.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--OLE MISS is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OLE MISS 69.7, OPPONENT 67.8 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - California by 3.5; O/U 147.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - California -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - California -1.89
_________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (OLE MISS) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
(25-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 144.9
The average score in these games was: Team 79.2, Opponent 77.1 (Total points scored = 156.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 24 (77.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (41-21).
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*** #639 LONG BEACH ST @ #640 WASHINGTON ST (-9.5, O/U 145) ***
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The Washington State Cougars make their second appearance in the National Invitation Tournament in the last three years, as they host the Long Beach State 49ers in the first round tonight at Beasley Coliseum in Pullman. The Cougars, who have won all three first-round NIT games they have hosted over the years, enters this year's version with an overall record of 19-12 in 2010-11. WSU, which is 4-4 in the NIT over the years, lost the final game of the regular season to UCLA by a score of 58-54 and was then turned away by Washington in the Pac-10 Conference Tournament as well, 89-87. The winner of tonight's matchup will take on Oklahoma State in the second round.
As for the 49ers, they earned an automatic spot in the NIT after winning the Big West Conference regular season with a record of 14-2. LBSU, which was the only team in the Big West to have more than 18 total victories, sporting a mark of 22-11, defeated UC Irvine and UC Riverside in the Big West Conference Tournament before falling to UC Santa Barbara (64-56) in the title game over the weekend. Long Beach State has a record of 2-5 in this tournament since first appearing in 1980, the team's most recent invite coming in 2000. The all-time series between these two teams is knotted at one game apiece, with Washington State posting a 79-69 win in the very first encounter back in 1962 and the 49ers claiming an 80-74 win at the Dayton Tournament in 1975.
The 49ers had a lineup that most of the Big West envied as all five starters for LBSU earned some level of conference recognition after such a successful campaign. Tops on the list was Casper Ware who became the first player in league history to be named both the Big West Player of the Year and the BWC Defensive Player of the Year in 2010-11. Ware led the group in scoring (17.0 ppg), assists (146) and steals (56) and was also one of the top three-point threats for the group as well. Larry Anderson, who was named to the All-Big West First Team along with Ware, was responsible for 14.5 ppg as he shot 53.4 percent from the floor and also cleared 6.3 rpg to go along with 87 assists and 50 steals in his 27 appearances. T.J. Robinson may have slumped a bit at the free-throw line (.585), but there's no denying his efforts in the paint for the 49ers which led to 13.5 points and a team-best 10.0 rebounds per contest.
While Long Beach State has Ware and Anderson doing much of the work for the squad, the Cougars lean even more heavily on Klay Thompson who became the program's third-leading scorer of all-time this season. Just a junior, Thompson has already tallied 1,687 points and became the fastest player in school history to reach 1,000 points, doing so in just 63 games. Thompson is the school's all-time leader in three-pointers made (237) and holds the single-season mark in that department as well with 93. Suspended for the UCLA outing due to a drug charge, Thompson heads into this meeting carrying a scoring average of 22.1 ppg, followed by Faisal Aden who was responsible for 13.1 ppg in 26 minutes per game. DeAngelo Casto fills out the list of double- digit scorers for the Cougars with his 12.1 ppg, shooting an impressive 59.7 percent from the floor, but a lackluster 62.1 percent at the charity stripe over the course of 29 games.
--WASHINGTON ST is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON ST 76.3, OPPONENT 73.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--LONG BEACH ST is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was LONG BEACH ST 78.5, OPPONENT 82.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Washington St by 8.5; O/U 143.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington St -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Washington St -8.39
_____________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games.
(51-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 70.1, Opponent 71.8 (Average point differential = -1.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-36).
*** #647 MIAMI OHIO @ #648 RHODE ISLAND (-8, O/U 131.5) ***
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For the first-time ever Rhode Island and Miami-Ohio will clash on the hardwood when the Rams host the RedHawks in the first round of the CBI Tournament at the Thomas Ryan Center. Tonight's winner will move on to face either St. Bonaventure or UCF in the quarterfinals on Monday. This is the second trip to the CBI for Miami-Ohio, which opened the 2008 event with a loss to the eventual champion Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The last time the RedHawks tasted victory in a postseason matchup was way back in 1999 when they defeated Utah in the NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks might have only posted a 16-16 ledger on the year, but the team can safely say it did not shy away from competition. Miami-Ohio faced Ohio State, Kansas and Duke, three of the four number one seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and also battled the Aztecs of San Diego State. The RedHawks also claimed two victories against teams in this year's Big Dance, defeating Xavier and Akron, which won the Mid-American Conference title.
As for the Rams, they took part in the NIT last season and made a strong push to the top of that mountain. Rhode Island defeated Nevada, Northwestern, and Virginia Tech, but eventually fell to North Carolina in overtime of the semifinals. It would be nice if Rhode Island could pull off an even better run in this year's CBI Tournament, but it won't be easy for the Rams, who never seemed to get things going this year. Rhode Island might have racked up 19 wins, but the team posted a modest 9-7 ledger in Atlantic-10 play and suffered an early exit against Richmond in the league's tournament. Rhode Island did not eclipse the 70-point plateau in its last six setbacks.
The Rams, who were held to just 45 points in the conference tournament loss to Richmond, come into this event averaging just 68.3 ppg, behind a pedestrian 42.1 percent shooting effort. The best scoring threat on the roster has been Delroy James, who is pacing the team with 17.3 ppg. James is also grabbing a team-best 7.8 rebounds per matchup, but the forward has done a terrible job at handling the ball, as he committed 110 turnovers on the year. James has not had to carry this team on his shoulders though, as the Rams have also enjoyed plenty of help from Marquis Jones and Nikola Malesevic. Jones is posting 11.4 ppg on the year, but clearly the guard is more valuable as a distributor, as he is pacing the team with 119 assists. As for Malesevic, he is chipping in 10.8 ppg.
The RedHawks can attribute their mediocre 16-16 mark on the year to their inconsistent effort at the offensive end of the floor. Miami-Ohio heads into this event netting just 66.6 ppg, and to make matters worse, the RedHawks are surrendering 70.1 ppg. The strength of this squad is in the frontcourt, as the RedHawks possess two menacing forces in Julian Mavunga and Nick Winbush. Mavunga comes into this tournament leading the RedHawks in scoring (14.8 ppg) and rebounding (8.2 rpg), but Winbush also produces impressive numbers in those categories while also playing much tougher defensively. Winbush led the team with 33 blocks on the year and at the same time contributed 12.6 ppg and 7.1 rebounds per matchup.
BOTTOM LINE: Clearly Mavunga and Winbush are a tough tandem, but if Miami-Ohio is going to be successful the team will need guard Orlando Williams to step up. Williams has been up and down all year and comes into this matchup averaging just 9.7 ppg. The RedHawks have played plenty of tough teams this season, so battling Rhode Island on the road will not discourage this battle-tested squad. However, Miami-Ohio does not have enough firepower to keep up with the Rams on their floor.
--RHODE ISLAND is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in a home game where the total is 130 to 134.5 since 1997.
The average score was RHODE ISLAND 60.1, OPPONENT 68.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI OHIO is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 71.8, OPPONENT 74.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Rhode Island by 6.5; O/U 136.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Rhode Island -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Rhode Island -6.92
____________________________________________
• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (RHODE ISLAND) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game.
(91-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.0%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -290.9
The average score in these games was: Team 73.4, Opponent 64.8 (Average point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3, -1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (46-9, +15.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-35, +55.5 units).
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*** #649 ST BONAVENTURE @ #650 UCF (-6, O/U 130) ***
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The Bonnies will snap a long postseason drought this evening when St. Bonaventure takes on the UCF Knights in the first round of the CBI Tournament at UCF Arena. This is the first-ever meeting between the two schools and the winner will advance to the quarterfinals to take on either Miami-Ohio or Rhode Island. This will be the 22nd postseason appearance for the Bonnies, but the first since the 2001-02 NIT. The Bonnies closed out their season with just 16 victories and posted just an 8-8 mark in Atlantic 10 action. The team dropped three of its last four contests, including a double-overtime heartbreaker to La Salle in the A-10 Conference Tournament.
As for the Knights, they have appeared in the NCAA Tournament five times, with the most recent showing coming in 2005, but this is the team's first-ever at large bid into a postseason event since the program moved into Division I back in 1984. This year's squad is sitting on 19 victories and with a win would hit the 20-win plateau for the sixth time since moving into the Division I rankings. However, it was a tale of two different seasons for UCF, which won its first 14 games, only to fall in 11 of its next 16 matchups.
The Bonnies currently possess four players in double figures, but even with that type of all-around production the team averaged just 70.1 ppg on the year. A big reason for the modest numbers is a lack of strength on the bench, as the reserves contributed just 11.1 ppg. St. Bonaventure, which shot 45.7 percent from the floor, was paced by Andrew Nicholson, as the forward added to his already impressive resume by posting 20.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg. Demitrius Conger took some of the pressure off Nicholson in the post, as he tallied 10.2 ppg, and collected 5.6 rebounds per contest. In the backcourt the team is led by the tandem of Michael Davenport and Ogo Adegboye. Davenport and Adegboye each contributed 11.4 ppg each on the year, while Davenport collected 5.0 rpg and Adegboye distributed 4.0 assists per matchup.
For UCF to be successful in this event the team must figure out a way to get back to its tenacious play defensively. The Knights held the opposition to just 63.0 ppg on the year, but down the stretch their defensive wall broke down, as the team surrendered 70 or more points in seven of its 11 setbacks. Sound defensive play is even more crucial when considering the Knights are not an overwhelming force offensively, netting just 69.1 ppg. Marcus Jordan has led the team in that department posting 15.6 ppg and 3.4 apg, while Keith Clanton has given the team a solid punch in the paint, chipping in 14.0 ppg, to go along with a team-best 8.1 rebounds per contest.
BOTTOM LINE: It will be interesting to see what UCF team comes to play in this event, the one that claimed 14 straight wins to open the year or the squad that struggled with consistency during the second half. While inconsistency might rear its ugly head at some point in this tournament, UCF should be able to get the win at home tonight.
--UCF is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
The average score was UCF 62.8, OPPONENT 69.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--ST BONAVENTURE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games off a home loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST BONAVENTURE 66.8, OPPONENT 65.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - UCF by 7; O/U 134.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - UCF -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - UCF -9.81
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCF) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games.
(51-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (32-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 70.1, Opponent 71.8 (Average point differential = -1.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-36).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (UCF) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(110-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +49.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 63.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 30.4 (Total first half points scored = 61.3)
The situation's record this season is: (44-32).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (76-43).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (126-91).
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*** #653 WEBER ST @ #654 OREGON (-10.5, O/U 137.5) ***
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Despite having a record under .500 on the season, the Oregon Ducks have made it to the postseason anyway and will host the Weber State Wildcats in the first round of the College Basketball Invitational at Matthew Knight Arena. Oregon, which is taking part in this tournament for the first time this season, defeated both Arizona State and UCLA during the Pac-10 Conference Tournament at the Staples Center in Los Angeles last week before bowing to eventual champs, the Washington Huskies, by a score of 69-51 on Friday night. The defeat dropped the Ducks to just 16-17 on the season overall, yet they were still seen as a legitimate competitor for this relatively new tournament.
As for the Wildcats who are also new to this tourney, this is their third straight trip to the postseason after taking part in the NIT the last two years. Weber State has a postseason record of 7-17 overall, which includes appearances in the NCAA Tournament thanks to their dominant play in the Big Sky Conference over the years. As far as 2010-11 is concerned, the team put up a mark of 18-13 overall and was 11-5 versus the rest of the Big Sky, but fell short of making the Big Dance when they lost to Montana in the semifinals of the conference tournament last week, 57-40. In a strange twist, the team also played a previously scheduled, regular-season game against Saint Mary's- CA on Friday night and lost to the Gaels, 77-54, as well.
The Wildcats had several things working in their favor this year, but still the team came up short of making it to the NCAA Tournament. Nevertheless, Scott Bamforth is still a top-notch player for Weber State with his 12.0 ppg on an astounding 73-of-146 effort behind the three-point line. In conference games Bamforth, who was named the Big Sky Newcomer of the Year, connected on an incredible 55.1 percent of his three-point tries. Bamforth was named a Big Sky First Team member along with Kyle Bullinger, who was the third active scorer for the Wildcats with 11.1 ppg and was the top man on the glass with 6.2 rpg, numbers which both jumped slightly against the rest of the conference over 16 games. Lindsey Hughey, an honorable mention all-conference performer, accounts for 12.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg and 81 assists, so there's little he can't do for this group.
If not for the 197 combined points the Ducks posted against North Dakota State and Willamette in the first month of the season the team wouldn't be anywhere close to generating 69.5 ppg this season. Oregon shot a collective 41.9 percent from the floor during 2010-11 and had just two double-digit scorers on the roster in Joevan Catron and E.J. Singler who were responsible for 15.0 ppg and 11.4 ppg, respectively. Both players manned the inside most of the time for the Ducks, resulting in a combined 11.9 rpg, but the latter also managed to make good on close to 40 percent of his three-point tries which sometimes made him a tough matchup for opposing defenses. Malcolm Armstead (8.5 ppg) tried to keep the offense in motion with his 141 assists over the course of 32 appearances, showing the same sort of quick reflexes on defense as well with a team-high 74 steals, which was twice as many as anyone else on the roster.
This is the third all-time meeting between these two programs, with Oregon having won both previous encounters. The first was a narrow 69-67 final during the 1971-71 campaign, the other a 75-57 blowout in 1986-87 in Eugene. The winner of this game advances to the quarterfinal round five days from now versus the survivor of the Duquesne/Montana matchup.
--OREGON is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 64.7, OPPONENT 77.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--WEBER ST is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997.
The average score was WEBER ST 70.8, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oregon by 8; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oregon -12
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oregon -7.79
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - A favorite (OREGON) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (44-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 71.1, Opponent 62.7 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (30.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-34).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (WEBER ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games.
(38-13 since 1997.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.2, Opponent 36.2 (Average first half point differential = -5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
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*** #661 IONA @ #662 VALPARAISO (PK, O/U 145) ***
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First round action of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament will head to Valparaiso this evening when the Crusaders host the Iona Gaels at the Athletics-Recreation Center. Iona won the only meeting between the two squads on the hardwood, as the Gaels defeated Valparaiso, 75-55, back in 2008. This is the first postseason appearance for the Gaels since they journeyed to the NCAA Tournament in 2006. This year the Gaels enjoyed plenty of success, posting winning streaks of seven, six and nine games on the year. The most recent streak was brought to an end with a loss to Saint Peter's in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. Despite the loss, Iona still reeled off 22 wins on the year and finished with a terrific 13-5 ledger in the MAAC.
Two years ago the Crusaders snapped a six-game slide in postseason play with a 72-71 victory over Washington in the 2008 CBI Tournament. However, that win was followed by a loss to Houston, dropping Valparaiso to just 3-8 in nine postseason appearances. This year's team earned the program its 10th postseason showing after collecting 23 wins on the season. Valparaiso also enjoyed plenty of success in Horizon League action, finishing with a 12-6 ledger. The Crusaders have enjoyed some success at the offensive end of the floor this season, but not nearly at the same level of Iona. Valpo posted 73.1 ppg and shot a respectable 47.5 percent from the floor as a team.
Still, the Crusaders struggled from long range (32.4 percent) and their 66.7 percent effort from the foul line also left a lot to be desired. The best option throughout the season for Valparaiso was Brandon Wood, and not just because he led the team with 17.0 ppg. Sure, Wood's ability to score is a terrific asset, but the guard did much than light up the scoreboard. Wood comes into this tournament with 4.4 rpg, a team-high 3.2 assists per matchup and also led the way with 54 steals, proving he is dangerous at both ends of the court. Cory Johnson has been a strong second option, as the forward is netting 14.1 ppg, to go along with 4.3 rebounds per matchup.
The Gaels exited the MAAC Tournament because the team had a surprising power outage at the offensive end. Iona, which was one of the top scoring teams in the nation, tallied just 57 points in a loss to Saint Peter's and that is a far cry from the 79.0 ppg the Gaels have averaged on the year. The team's success in that area is largely due to the one-two punch of Mike Glover and Scott Machado. Glover was one of the top forwards in the MAAC this season and the big man was a force to be reckoned with, posting 18.2 ppg, to go along with an impressive 10.2 rebounds per contest. While Glover was terrorizing the opposition in the paint, Machado was running the show in the backcourt, as the guard not only contributed 13.6 ppg, but more importantly, dished out an outstanding 248 assists, third-best mark in the nation.
--VALPARAISO is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VALPARAISO 73.2, OPPONENT 72.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--VALPARAISO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season.
The average score was VALPARAISO 78.6, OPPONENT 68.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Valparaiso by 3; O/U 149
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Iona -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Valparaiso -1.11
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - Road teams against the total (IONA) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games.
(34-8 since 1997.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 64.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.5, Opponent 34.7 (Total first half points scored = 69.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
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For the first-time ever Rhode Island and Miami-Ohio will clash on the hardwood when the Rams host the RedHawks in the first round of the CBI Tournament at the Thomas Ryan Center. Tonight's winner will move on to face either St. Bonaventure or UCF in the quarterfinals on Monday. This is the second trip to the CBI for Miami-Ohio, which opened the 2008 event with a loss to the eventual champion Tulsa Golden Hurricane. The last time the RedHawks tasted victory in a postseason matchup was way back in 1999 when they defeated Utah in the NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks might have only posted a 16-16 ledger on the year, but the team can safely say it did not shy away from competition. Miami-Ohio faced Ohio State, Kansas and Duke, three of the four number one seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and also battled the Aztecs of San Diego State. The RedHawks also claimed two victories against teams in this year's Big Dance, defeating Xavier and Akron, which won the Mid-American Conference title.
As for the Rams, they took part in the NIT last season and made a strong push to the top of that mountain. Rhode Island defeated Nevada, Northwestern, and Virginia Tech, but eventually fell to North Carolina in overtime of the semifinals. It would be nice if Rhode Island could pull off an even better run in this year's CBI Tournament, but it won't be easy for the Rams, who never seemed to get things going this year. Rhode Island might have racked up 19 wins, but the team posted a modest 9-7 ledger in Atlantic-10 play and suffered an early exit against Richmond in the league's tournament. Rhode Island did not eclipse the 70-point plateau in its last six setbacks.
The Rams, who were held to just 45 points in the conference tournament loss to Richmond, come into this event averaging just 68.3 ppg, behind a pedestrian 42.1 percent shooting effort. The best scoring threat on the roster has been Delroy James, who is pacing the team with 17.3 ppg. James is also grabbing a team-best 7.8 rebounds per matchup, but the forward has done a terrible job at handling the ball, as he committed 110 turnovers on the year. James has not had to carry this team on his shoulders though, as the Rams have also enjoyed plenty of help from Marquis Jones and Nikola Malesevic. Jones is posting 11.4 ppg on the year, but clearly the guard is more valuable as a distributor, as he is pacing the team with 119 assists. As for Malesevic, he is chipping in 10.8 ppg.
The RedHawks can attribute their mediocre 16-16 mark on the year to their inconsistent effort at the offensive end of the floor. Miami-Ohio heads into this event netting just 66.6 ppg, and to make matters worse, the RedHawks are surrendering 70.1 ppg. The strength of this squad is in the frontcourt, as the RedHawks possess two menacing forces in Julian Mavunga and Nick Winbush. Mavunga comes into this tournament leading the RedHawks in scoring (14.8 ppg) and rebounding (8.2 rpg), but Winbush also produces impressive numbers in those categories while also playing much tougher defensively. Winbush led the team with 33 blocks on the year and at the same time contributed 12.6 ppg and 7.1 rebounds per matchup.
BOTTOM LINE: Clearly Mavunga and Winbush are a tough tandem, but if Miami-Ohio is going to be successful the team will need guard Orlando Williams to step up. Williams has been up and down all year and comes into this matchup averaging just 9.7 ppg. The RedHawks have played plenty of tough teams this season, so battling Rhode Island on the road will not discourage this battle-tested squad. However, Miami-Ohio does not have enough firepower to keep up with the Rams on their floor.
--RHODE ISLAND is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in a home game where the total is 130 to 134.5 since 1997.
The average score was RHODE ISLAND 60.1, OPPONENT 68.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI OHIO is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was MIAMI OHIO 71.8, OPPONENT 74.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Rhode Island by 6.5; O/U 136.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Rhode Island -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Rhode Island -6.92
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (RHODE ISLAND) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game.
(91-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.0%, +44.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -290.9
The average score in these games was: Team 73.4, Opponent 64.8 (Average point differential = +8.6)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3, -1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (46-9, +15.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (153-35, +55.5 units).
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*** #649 ST BONAVENTURE @ #650 UCF (-6, O/U 130) ***
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The Bonnies will snap a long postseason drought this evening when St. Bonaventure takes on the UCF Knights in the first round of the CBI Tournament at UCF Arena. This is the first-ever meeting between the two schools and the winner will advance to the quarterfinals to take on either Miami-Ohio or Rhode Island. This will be the 22nd postseason appearance for the Bonnies, but the first since the 2001-02 NIT. The Bonnies closed out their season with just 16 victories and posted just an 8-8 mark in Atlantic 10 action. The team dropped three of its last four contests, including a double-overtime heartbreaker to La Salle in the A-10 Conference Tournament.
As for the Knights, they have appeared in the NCAA Tournament five times, with the most recent showing coming in 2005, but this is the team's first-ever at large bid into a postseason event since the program moved into Division I back in 1984. This year's squad is sitting on 19 victories and with a win would hit the 20-win plateau for the sixth time since moving into the Division I rankings. However, it was a tale of two different seasons for UCF, which won its first 14 games, only to fall in 11 of its next 16 matchups.
The Bonnies currently possess four players in double figures, but even with that type of all-around production the team averaged just 70.1 ppg on the year. A big reason for the modest numbers is a lack of strength on the bench, as the reserves contributed just 11.1 ppg. St. Bonaventure, which shot 45.7 percent from the floor, was paced by Andrew Nicholson, as the forward added to his already impressive resume by posting 20.8 ppg and 7.4 rpg. Demitrius Conger took some of the pressure off Nicholson in the post, as he tallied 10.2 ppg, and collected 5.6 rebounds per contest. In the backcourt the team is led by the tandem of Michael Davenport and Ogo Adegboye. Davenport and Adegboye each contributed 11.4 ppg each on the year, while Davenport collected 5.0 rpg and Adegboye distributed 4.0 assists per matchup.
For UCF to be successful in this event the team must figure out a way to get back to its tenacious play defensively. The Knights held the opposition to just 63.0 ppg on the year, but down the stretch their defensive wall broke down, as the team surrendered 70 or more points in seven of its 11 setbacks. Sound defensive play is even more crucial when considering the Knights are not an overwhelming force offensively, netting just 69.1 ppg. Marcus Jordan has led the team in that department posting 15.6 ppg and 3.4 apg, while Keith Clanton has given the team a solid punch in the paint, chipping in 14.0 ppg, to go along with a team-best 8.1 rebounds per contest.
BOTTOM LINE: It will be interesting to see what UCF team comes to play in this event, the one that claimed 14 straight wins to open the year or the squad that struggled with consistency during the second half. While inconsistency might rear its ugly head at some point in this tournament, UCF should be able to get the win at home tonight.
--UCF is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
The average score was UCF 62.8, OPPONENT 69.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--ST BONAVENTURE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games off a home loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ST BONAVENTURE 66.8, OPPONENT 65.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - UCF by 7; O/U 134.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - UCF -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - UCF -9.81
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCF) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games.
(51-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (32-42 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 70.1, Opponent 71.8 (Average point differential = -1.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 30 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-12).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-36).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (UCF) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games.
(110-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +49.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 63.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.8, Opponent 30.4 (Total first half points scored = 61.3)
The situation's record this season is: (44-32).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (76-43).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (126-91).
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*** #653 WEBER ST @ #654 OREGON (-10.5, O/U 137.5) ***
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Despite having a record under .500 on the season, the Oregon Ducks have made it to the postseason anyway and will host the Weber State Wildcats in the first round of the College Basketball Invitational at Matthew Knight Arena. Oregon, which is taking part in this tournament for the first time this season, defeated both Arizona State and UCLA during the Pac-10 Conference Tournament at the Staples Center in Los Angeles last week before bowing to eventual champs, the Washington Huskies, by a score of 69-51 on Friday night. The defeat dropped the Ducks to just 16-17 on the season overall, yet they were still seen as a legitimate competitor for this relatively new tournament.
As for the Wildcats who are also new to this tourney, this is their third straight trip to the postseason after taking part in the NIT the last two years. Weber State has a postseason record of 7-17 overall, which includes appearances in the NCAA Tournament thanks to their dominant play in the Big Sky Conference over the years. As far as 2010-11 is concerned, the team put up a mark of 18-13 overall and was 11-5 versus the rest of the Big Sky, but fell short of making the Big Dance when they lost to Montana in the semifinals of the conference tournament last week, 57-40. In a strange twist, the team also played a previously scheduled, regular-season game against Saint Mary's- CA on Friday night and lost to the Gaels, 77-54, as well.
The Wildcats had several things working in their favor this year, but still the team came up short of making it to the NCAA Tournament. Nevertheless, Scott Bamforth is still a top-notch player for Weber State with his 12.0 ppg on an astounding 73-of-146 effort behind the three-point line. In conference games Bamforth, who was named the Big Sky Newcomer of the Year, connected on an incredible 55.1 percent of his three-point tries. Bamforth was named a Big Sky First Team member along with Kyle Bullinger, who was the third active scorer for the Wildcats with 11.1 ppg and was the top man on the glass with 6.2 rpg, numbers which both jumped slightly against the rest of the conference over 16 games. Lindsey Hughey, an honorable mention all-conference performer, accounts for 12.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg and 81 assists, so there's little he can't do for this group.
If not for the 197 combined points the Ducks posted against North Dakota State and Willamette in the first month of the season the team wouldn't be anywhere close to generating 69.5 ppg this season. Oregon shot a collective 41.9 percent from the floor during 2010-11 and had just two double-digit scorers on the roster in Joevan Catron and E.J. Singler who were responsible for 15.0 ppg and 11.4 ppg, respectively. Both players manned the inside most of the time for the Ducks, resulting in a combined 11.9 rpg, but the latter also managed to make good on close to 40 percent of his three-point tries which sometimes made him a tough matchup for opposing defenses. Malcolm Armstead (8.5 ppg) tried to keep the offense in motion with his 141 assists over the course of 32 appearances, showing the same sort of quick reflexes on defense as well with a team-high 74 steals, which was twice as many as anyone else on the roster.
This is the third all-time meeting between these two programs, with Oregon having won both previous encounters. The first was a narrow 69-67 final during the 1971-71 campaign, the other a 75-57 blowout in 1986-87 in Eugene. The winner of this game advances to the quarterfinal round five days from now versus the survivor of the Duquesne/Montana matchup.
--OREGON is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 64.7, OPPONENT 77.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--WEBER ST is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997.
The average score was WEBER ST 70.8, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oregon by 8; O/U 136
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oregon -12
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oregon -7.79
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - A favorite (OREGON) - after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (44-10 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 71.1, Opponent 62.7 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (30.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-34).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (WEBER ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games.
(38-13 since 1997.) (74.5%, +23.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.2, Opponent 36.2 (Average first half point differential = -5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
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*** #661 IONA @ #662 VALPARAISO (PK, O/U 145) ***
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First round action of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament will head to Valparaiso this evening when the Crusaders host the Iona Gaels at the Athletics-Recreation Center. Iona won the only meeting between the two squads on the hardwood, as the Gaels defeated Valparaiso, 75-55, back in 2008. This is the first postseason appearance for the Gaels since they journeyed to the NCAA Tournament in 2006. This year the Gaels enjoyed plenty of success, posting winning streaks of seven, six and nine games on the year. The most recent streak was brought to an end with a loss to Saint Peter's in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. Despite the loss, Iona still reeled off 22 wins on the year and finished with a terrific 13-5 ledger in the MAAC.
Two years ago the Crusaders snapped a six-game slide in postseason play with a 72-71 victory over Washington in the 2008 CBI Tournament. However, that win was followed by a loss to Houston, dropping Valparaiso to just 3-8 in nine postseason appearances. This year's team earned the program its 10th postseason showing after collecting 23 wins on the season. Valparaiso also enjoyed plenty of success in Horizon League action, finishing with a 12-6 ledger. The Crusaders have enjoyed some success at the offensive end of the floor this season, but not nearly at the same level of Iona. Valpo posted 73.1 ppg and shot a respectable 47.5 percent from the floor as a team.
Still, the Crusaders struggled from long range (32.4 percent) and their 66.7 percent effort from the foul line also left a lot to be desired. The best option throughout the season for Valparaiso was Brandon Wood, and not just because he led the team with 17.0 ppg. Sure, Wood's ability to score is a terrific asset, but the guard did much than light up the scoreboard. Wood comes into this tournament with 4.4 rpg, a team-high 3.2 assists per matchup and also led the way with 54 steals, proving he is dangerous at both ends of the court. Cory Johnson has been a strong second option, as the forward is netting 14.1 ppg, to go along with 4.3 rebounds per matchup.
The Gaels exited the MAAC Tournament because the team had a surprising power outage at the offensive end. Iona, which was one of the top scoring teams in the nation, tallied just 57 points in a loss to Saint Peter's and that is a far cry from the 79.0 ppg the Gaels have averaged on the year. The team's success in that area is largely due to the one-two punch of Mike Glover and Scott Machado. Glover was one of the top forwards in the MAAC this season and the big man was a force to be reckoned with, posting 18.2 ppg, to go along with an impressive 10.2 rebounds per contest. While Glover was terrorizing the opposition in the paint, Machado was running the show in the backcourt, as the guard not only contributed 13.6 ppg, but more importantly, dished out an outstanding 248 assists, third-best mark in the nation.
--VALPARAISO is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VALPARAISO 73.2, OPPONENT 72.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--VALPARAISO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season.
The average score was VALPARAISO 78.6, OPPONENT 68.0 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Valparaiso by 3; O/U 149
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Iona -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Valparaiso -1.11
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY OVER - Road teams against the total (IONA) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games.
(34-8 since 1997.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 64.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.5, Opponent 34.7 (Total first half points scored = 69.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
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