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At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

We start off the week with a 11-race card at Gulfstream Park this afternoon, with quite a few wide open races starting with the opener which is a $16,000 maiden claimer on turf.

The early Pick 5 is going to be tough to hit, with no logical singles in the five race sequence and we should see a handsome payoff if we are lucky enough to come up with enough winners.

We have a huge Saturday coming up, but we lost one star as Dortmund is not ready for the $500,000 San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita according to his trainer Bob Baffert.

Dortmund has won eight of his 10 career starts, his most recent outing a victory in the Native Diver (G3) at Del Mar on Nov. 28. He figures to be a major player in the handicap division when he does get back on track.

His seasonal debut was supposed to come in the San Pasqual (G2) on Jan. 9 but a quartercrack knocked him out of that race. That race was won by California Chrome, who is now pointing toward the $10 million Dubai World Cup (G1) next month.

We have eight graded stakes on tap on Saturday including one Road to the Kentucky Derby points race-the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis S (G3) at Santa Anita.

Four of the graded stakes on Saturday are at Santa Anita. At Gulfstream Park there are four including the $500,000 Donn Handicap (G1) for older runners.

There are a pair of $100,000 ungraded stakes at Aqueduct- the Fred "Cappy" Capossela and the Gander.

Looks as if I am going to be very busy this week.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $16,000 (12:35 ET)
#3 Congrats U 7-2
#1 True Diplomacy 5-2
#9 Abandon Ship 8-1
#10 Imperial Ben 8-1

Analysis: Congrats U was bumped coming out of the gate and not a threat in a seventh place finish off a two month break against $35,000 foes. The gelding drops into the softest spot of his seven race career here in for $16,000. He has five sibs that are winners including a pair of turf winners, top earner stakes winner Courtesan ($216,906).

True Diplomacy drops out of maiden special weight company and is tagged for just the second time in his career. Last October he was a decent third and ran second versus tougher twice last spring. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and fits with the class relief. He is out of the stakes winner Ting a Folie ($82,784) who has dropped two winners including one turf winner.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,9,10
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,9,10 / 1,3,8,9,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 Md $35,000 (4:35 ET)
#8 Beaukati 7-2
#1 Star Charlie 4-1
#2 Homespun Hero 3-1
#5 Mr Changue 6-1

Analysis: Beaukati prompted the early pace and could not catch the gate to wire winner last out in a runner up finish in his first go for a tag. The third place finisher in the race was He's Cotton, who came back to beat $25,000 maiden sin his next start on Jan. 16 here. The class drop woke this guy up and he fits well here. He is out of a stakes placed Mr. Prospector mare that has dropped five winners.

Star Charlie stalked the early pace, came with a five wide run and finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out in his debut, sent off at 6-1 in a field of eight in the slop. The gelding figures to move forward off that effort for the Plesa barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens. He has three sibs that are winners.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,2,5,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,4,5,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #9 Abandon Ship 8-1
R1: #10 Imperial Ben 8-1
R2: #5 Rock All Day 10-1
R3: #1 Trapnall Hall 8-1
R7: #10 Coty Section 10-1
R8: #6 Biamonte 10-1
R10: #2 Songoficeandfire 8-1
R11: #11 Twinkling 15-1

Good luck today!
 
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Northfield: Wednesday 2/3 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four play:

2 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,9 / 5,7 / 2,8 = $28


Best Bet: JED KID SQUAKING (8th)

Spot Play: TKRS IMSEXYNINOIT (6th)


Race 1

(1) HARMONY LEGACY five-year-old trotter should be primed for a better effort making his third start back off a layoff . (6) AISLING takes a big drop in class and should be closer turning for home. (2) S M'S TERMINATOR has been competitive at this level but needs more; command a price.

Race 2

(1) SIMPLY ROCKIN gets the best post in against a suspect bunch. (9) TWIN B GANGSTER put in a good mile last week and can improve second start in a new barn. (5) ROYAL FINALE closed good late ground last week; threat.

Race 3

(4) BOOYAH TJ eight-year-old trotter comes into the race off a super qualifier and will be tough to beat if he stays trotting. (5) JESMACH CHESTER raced gamely last week against weaker. The 4-year-old is best used underneath but has been improving. (7) SIR KENSINGTON gets a tough post but in the right scenario could pick up the pieces.

Race 4

(3) DO IT DOC'S WAY picks up a huge driver change first start in a new barn. (1) RAY'S WESTERN gets a much better post and has been knocking on the door against similar. (9) STRONSKI was bet down under the board last out at this level; threat.

Race 5

(3) CHAMBORO AS if the 5-year-old gelding stays trotting he wins. (6) POWER STICK gets a low percentage pilot but the 4-year-old does own some ability. (8) HANGIN JUDGE adds second time lasix and should be ready for a better effort second start back off a layoff.

Race 6

(8) TKRS IMSEXYNINOIT his last line is not indicative of how the pacer raced. The 4-year-old mare had plenty of pace with nowhere to go saving ground on the inside. (4) CHICKENWITHABANJO pacer makes his second start in a new barn; threat. (3) GOOD ROBERTA doesn't look the best on paper but has hit the ticket in this class; use underneath.

Race 7

(3) AWESTREOS takes a significant drop in class; threat. (1) ARTGENTINA picks up a top driver with the best post. (9) HEMINGWAY has been facing tougher and makes his first start for a new trainer.

Race 8

(2) JED KIDD SQUAKING was flying late last week off dull cover The pacer should be much closer turning for home. (1) JENNA'S DREAM drops down a notch and should be in line for a ground saving trip up close. (9) HEZA STAR CRUISER picks up a huge driver change; threat.

Race 9

(4) ZORGWIJK HEAVENLY gets a huge morning line with a positive driver change. (3) ZOLENA has hit the board in four straight. (2) HOME TOWNE JEFF pacer can also hit the ticket at a monster price with some racing luck.

Race 10

(5) STEVIE DIAMONDS burned cash last week but can bounce back with a softer middle half; fires early. (7) LOCK THREE will look to make it two straight down in class. The pacer was sharp last week and picks up the top driver. (9) PRVO raced gamely last week at this level; use underneath.

Race 11

(8) DREAMY FELLA will look to make it six straight facing similar and just needs to find a way into the race. (2) STRONG PLAYIN KING has been no match for the top choice but does get a big post edge. (1) J K DELIGHT has yet to be competitive at this level; use underneath.

Race 12

(3) ERISTER HANOVER nice looking trotter has come up short three times in four starts but is dangerous. (9) STUDENT NURSE should be in line for a nice ground saving trip; threat. (8) PONDA BLITZ has flashed the biggest burst of speed but needs a decent setup.

Race 13

(9) RICKY KAY gets sent out second start for new connections off a nice first try. (2) MARTIN HANOVER takes a significant drop in class with a huge driver change. (1) JUXASPORT gets the best post but is best used underneath for a low percentage pilot.

Race 14

(6) LOST JEWELS has just been racing evenly but finds a weak field full of question marks. (4) REDBUD didn't hit the board in twenty starts last year but could hit the ticket against this bunch. (5) MONEY GUNS LAWYERS looks to offer low value but does pick up a top driver; use caution.

Race 15

(1) SAY IT AGAIN SAM well bred pacer gets sent out for top connections with the best post. (6) JUDE HALL is a consistent cash burner every week and the driver opted elsewhere; command a price. (5) ROCK N ROLL STAR veteran pacer gets sent out for the top barn in a weak and inconsistent field.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Charles Town (1st) Priceless Dancer, 6-1
(7th) Noble Hustle, 7-2


Delta Downs (4th) Empty Basket, 3-1
(8th) Baby Trump, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (7th) City Section, 10-1
(10th) Songoficeandfire, 8-1


Mahoning Valley (4th) All Snuffed Up, 3-1
(5th) Spectacularfashion, 5-1


Penn National (4th) Perfect Wind, 7-2
(7th) Royal Flash, 9-2


Tampa Bay Downs (7th) Honey Chile Ryder, 6-1
(9th) Antoine's, 4-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Cavour, 10-1
(6th) Whoa Boy, 9-2
 
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Wednesday's six-pack

-- Tennessee 84, Kentucky 77-- Wildcats are 2-4 in last six road games.

-- Indiana 80, Michigan 67-- Hoosiers had 25-0 run in first half. 25-nil.

-- New Mexico 87, UNLV 83-- Rebels were 12-26 on arc, still got beat.

-- DePaul 77, Providence 70-- Bentil got hurt; Friars aren't very deep.

-- Duke 80, Georgia Tech 71-- Krzyzewski was ill, didn't make the trip.

-- Clemson 76, Wake Forest 62-- Tigers are building a case to be in Field of 68.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

539 EVANSVILLE @ 540 NORTHERN IOWA 7:00 PM

Take: 539 EVANSVILLE +1.5

I won’t go so far as to label Northern Iowa a flop, but it’s fair to assess the Panthers season to date as a pretty good sized disappointment. UNI has a couple of nice wins on its ledger, having defeated both North Carolina and Iowa State. But this team has never really out it together and they limp into tonight’s game with a pedestrian 12-11 record, including a somewhat shocking 4-6 in MVC play.

Evansville was supposed to be pretty solid this year, and the Purple Aches have actually been even better than that. They’re 18-5 overall, 7-3 in league play, and Evansville appears to have a pretty good shot at making a case for an NCAA at-large invite if they take care of business down the regular season stretch.

I have this circled as the biggest remaining game on the slate for Evansville. They should be favored in all their pending battles, so a win here and this team at a 26-win campaign. Even minus the so-called signature win, the Aces would have to be a strong consideration by the committee if they win out.

This looks to be a good matchup for Evansville. Northern Iowa simply hasn’t been a particularly effective team on defense this season. Unless the Panthers get it together tonight on that end of the court, the Purple Aces are likely to get some good looks at the basket, and there’s not much question about Evansville’s ability to put the ball in the basket.

Looking at the stats, Evansville wins both the offensive and defensive efficiency battles. The Purple Aces were no match for powerful Wichita State over the weekend, but unless there’s a hangover from that game, I would expect this team to get right back on track tonight. Northern Iowa is obviously capable of winning this game and if the Panthers are sharp, I might be in trouble with my play on this game. But the black and white says Evansville is simply the better team at this juncture and I’ll be happy to take my chances with the Purple Aces as small road underdogs.
 
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Heath Mac

Wolves vs Clippers

Free Pick Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves started off the season red hot on the road (but couldn’t win or cover at home), covering their first 9-10 games on the road. The books then tightened up on them, as the majority of their covers came when they were road dogs of around 7+ points. They weren’t good enough to win many games, but they had enough young talent and enthusiasm to keep the losses within single digits. Once the books tightened up and shaved a few points off their road dog spreads, it is no surprise that they stopped covering. Bizarrely, last night they were actually 4.5 road favorites against the Lakers – and lost outright by 4 points. That game has helped us with an extra couple of points here. This is the last game of a home stand before the Clippers hit the road and although we think they will win, the Wolves will do enough to keep it within the number.

The Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. The Clippers are 5-10 ATS at home against West conference sides this season, with an average winning margin of just +2.5 points.

For our free pick, take the Timberwolves +11.5 points here.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Wednesday, Feb 3, 2016 8:35 PM ESt

(515) NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS (516) SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Take: : Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, February 3, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Toronto Raptors and Phoenix Suns. New Orleans heads out on the road and the under is 36-16-1 in the Pelicans last 53 road games. They have the worst-shooting backcourt in the NBA in Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. They head to San Antonio, the No. 1 defensive teams in the NBA allowing 91.2 ppg. Spurs fans may be feeling their faith tested a bit after deflating losses to contenders Golden State and Cleveland, so expected a solid defensive effort here in bounce back mode. San Antonio is 13-3 under the total after a spread loss and 4-1 under in the Spurs last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Play New Orleans/San Antonio under the total.
 
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Scott Spreitzer

Warriors vs Wizards

Bonus Play Golden State Warriors

I'm recommending a play on Golden State minus the points on Wednesday. The Warriors have averaged over 120 ppg in nine tilts against teams playing between .400 & .490 basketball this season, covering eight of those contests. They head to DC off a 116-95 win and cover over New York last time out (we had the Warriors on these pages) and they have not let up one bit following a big win. In fact, GSW is 20-9 ATS after a win by at least 20 points, averaging 118 ppg in those 29 games. Yes, the Wizards have their work cut-out for them and they're a team on a 2-6 SU/ATS slide in their last eight games. Washington has fallen apart on the defensive end, allowing 114 points or more in four of their last five games, while giving up 115 ppg to their last five opponents, overall. The Wizards should be "just what the doctor ordered" for Steph Curry to get back on track. Curry has made just 18 of 47 shots over his last three games, but Klay Thompson has picked up the slack and then some, averaging 37 ppg while Curry "struggles." Washington has dropped six of their last seven ATS at home and we expect the trend to continue. I'm recommending a play on Golden State minus the points on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
 

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