David Malinsky
-91.6 NBA UNITS YTD
-28.0 CBB UNITS YTD
+37.8 Units This Month
6* Record 10-9-2 This Year
4* #723 PURDUE over OHIO STATE
Getting points with a team that brings the talent, experience, depth
and tenacity of Purdue is rare ? the Boilermakers already have six
wins against teams that we consider locks to make the NCAA tourney,
and are not going to be bothered by a hostile environment. So on a
night in which they bring a special focus to atone for that bitter
earlier home loss to the Buckeyes, we are absolutely in play.
Purdue lost the first go-round between these two 70-66 at West
Lafayette, a stunning turnaround after a 41-25 halftime lead, but it
was not so much the wheels coming off for the Boilermakers as Ohio
State playing a simply flawless second half ? Evan Turner stepped up
Big time with 32 points and nine rebounds while going a full 40
minutes. Since then the Buckeyes have maintained a high level of
play, but we believe that it has come in a manner that will begin to
turn against them. Turner was not the only one to go 40 minutes that
night ? David Lighty also did, while Jon Diebler played 37 and
William Buford 36. That set the stage for what has taken place since
then ? through 13 Big 10 games Diebler is averaging 37.5 per outing;
Lightly 36.5; and Turner and Buford each 33.9. There is not a reserve
that averages more than 3.0 points per game in league play. That is
an exhausting workload, and this is the kind of setting in which it
will show, with Purdue intensity mandating a high level of energy to
be able to compete for the full 40 minutes.
The Boilermakers have an extra day to prepare for this grudge match,
and also the bonus of getting Lewis Jackson back into the rotation, a
missing piece to the puzzle the first time around. They are 9-3 ATS
as Big 10 underdogs since the Robbie Hummel recruiting class first
donned these uniforms, and while this is the only opposing Big 10
court on which they do not have a victory, note that the losses on
each of the last two trips came in Overtime. Those dominating wins at
Michigan State and at home vs. Iowa last week show a team that is
peaking at the right time, and we expect them to win this one
outright, with the points being offered a solid cushion.
4* #737 DETROIT over WRIGHT STATE
We have laid out the basics behind calling Detroit a ?tough out?
several times already this season, and in going 7-1 ATS in an
underdog role since that opening night rout at California the Titans
are living up to the moniker. They may not always look pretty on the
court, but Ray McCallum has a physical group that plays hard, and
defends the basket tenaciously. So with a chance to take this many
points in a slow tempo game in which the offense is hard-pressed to
score, it should be no surprise that we land on this one.
Key by the presence of Eli Holman inside (34 blocked shots in 13
conference games), Detroit is allowing just 64.9 points per game in
Horizon League play, on 40.1 percent shooting from the field, and
having Holman around also means that the perimeter defenders can
extend further, which is why they are allowing only 29.7 from 3-point
range. Throw in a +4.4 advantage on the boards, and you can see how
difficult it becomes to put a margin together against this team ?
they have not lost a conference game by this spread all season, and
that includes already hooking up with Butler twice, while getting a
couple of outright road wins brings confidence.
Wright State brings the usual solid fundamentals under Brad Brownell,
but the Raiders are not gifted with a deep stock of talent. They are
averaging just 65.7 in league play on 43.2 percent shooting, and have
been out-rebounded through those 13 games. They gutted out a 61-59
road win at Detroit in the first go-round when the Titans missed a
pair of shots on the final possession, and it will not be easy for
them to generate anything much easier than that ? they do not press
or push tempo, and when you settle into half-court play against this
class of defense, the points come begrudgingly.
6* #790 SAINT LOUIS over RHODE ISLAND
It is most rare at this time of season to find a team with the better
conference record as this size of home underdog. And it is almost
unheard of for this kind of defensive gap to be in this price range.
But once again it is a case of what ?sex appeal? means in the
marketplace. Rick Majerus and his Billikens simply do not bring any.
But winning ugly pays the same as winning pretty, and that gets us in
the game here, big time.
In going 7-3 in Atlantic 10 play, Saint Louis has only been beaten
one time in regulation, a tough trip to face a nationally-ranked
Richmond team that had a prime revenge motive after losing on this
court earlier. The Billikens are allowing a minuscule 56.3 points per
game in regulation play in the conference, at only 40.6 percent
shooting, including a microscopic 23.8 from 3-point range, and there
have only been 106 assists against this defense in 430 Atlantic 10
floor minutes. It is a case of a team buying in to what the coach is
preaching, and with nine different players averaging at least 11
minutes per game the depth is there to guard tenaciously to the final
buzzer. That is a problem for Rhode Island, because it is not the way
the Rams prefer to play.
Saint Louis has won outright as road underdog in each of the first
two home games in this series since Majerus took over the program,
beating the spread by 25 points in the process, with Rhode Island
being held to 61 and 58 points. And while the Billikens have used
their defensive tenacity to move towards the top of the league
standings, the Rams have been a flat-out disaster on that end of the
court ? they are allowing a stunning 48.4 percent from the field in
conference games, dead last in the Atlantic 10, including 39.5 from
3-point range, and they are losing the battle of the boards by -4.6
per outing. Those are awful attributes to have as a road favorite in
this kind of setting, and it explains why their two previous step-up
conference trips were not competitive, losses at Temple and Xavier by
a combined 33 points. Saint Louis is not in the class of those
opponents talent-wise, but the Billikens create perhaps even more
difficulties from a matchup standpoint, and that means an excellent
chance for the outright upset, with the generous points being offered
not needed.
6* #721 ATLANTA over L.A. CLIPPERS
Rarely does a road team this far from home ever bring the focus on a
particular game that the Hawks have tonight. And rarely does any home
team in professional sports bring as little life as the Clippers will
to these proceedings. So time to step things up here.
The Hawks made a tactical decision in preparing for this four-game
western swing ? having played one of their worst games of the season
in losing 94-76 at home to Miami prior to the break, they resumed
practice in Los Angeles on Monday, instead of Atlanta. Monday was a
hard day of conditioning drills that Mike Woodson put them through to
get the discipline back where it needed to be, and it appeared to
have a cathartic effect as they went though a crisp Tuesday session
to prepare for this matchup, aided by that fact that Zaza Pachulia
and Jamal Crawford are both back to full health (from Woodson -
<i>?Guys are focused, and there?s been no whining for all the running
and stuff we?ve done. Everybody is just doing what they have to
do.?</i> We will call for them to come out with a tight level of
execution, taking a weak opponent much more seriously than would
ordinarily be the case.
The Clippers bring no such chemistry or focus. In opening 0-4 SU and
ATS under Kim Hughes, losing to the spread by 67 points in the
process, the train has come off the tracks, and instead of bringing
some optimism. And cohesion under their new coach, from the break,
they instead have to adjust to Marcus Camby and Ricky Davis departing
and Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw coming on board. Those roster
shuffles still leave them with eight players that will be free agents
when the season ends, an almost impossible setting to get a losing
team to focus on the little things that have to be done to win games,
At least Hughes is up front about it, with his audition for the
full-time job hardly laid out well for him - <i>"We're out of the
playoffs, clearly. My thought is you don't look at it that way. You
look at trying to teach every day. Try to get a little bit better
every day. Sometimes at this time of year that can be tough. And
that's the trouble of teaching this time of year.?</i> It is
exacerbated now by the loss of Camby?s defensive presence, and off of
last night?s 109-87 drubbing in Portland there is no fear of any kind
of turnaround here, especially with Blake and Outlaw getting nothing
more than a shoot-around to acclimate to their new teammates. Having
gone from a playoff team to this sad lot, one can only imagine their
enthusiasm level to be here (especially since they are on the ranks
of this roster?s free agents).
-91.6 NBA UNITS YTD
-28.0 CBB UNITS YTD
+37.8 Units This Month
6* Record 10-9-2 This Year
4* #723 PURDUE over OHIO STATE
Getting points with a team that brings the talent, experience, depth
and tenacity of Purdue is rare ? the Boilermakers already have six
wins against teams that we consider locks to make the NCAA tourney,
and are not going to be bothered by a hostile environment. So on a
night in which they bring a special focus to atone for that bitter
earlier home loss to the Buckeyes, we are absolutely in play.
Purdue lost the first go-round between these two 70-66 at West
Lafayette, a stunning turnaround after a 41-25 halftime lead, but it
was not so much the wheels coming off for the Boilermakers as Ohio
State playing a simply flawless second half ? Evan Turner stepped up
Big time with 32 points and nine rebounds while going a full 40
minutes. Since then the Buckeyes have maintained a high level of
play, but we believe that it has come in a manner that will begin to
turn against them. Turner was not the only one to go 40 minutes that
night ? David Lighty also did, while Jon Diebler played 37 and
William Buford 36. That set the stage for what has taken place since
then ? through 13 Big 10 games Diebler is averaging 37.5 per outing;
Lightly 36.5; and Turner and Buford each 33.9. There is not a reserve
that averages more than 3.0 points per game in league play. That is
an exhausting workload, and this is the kind of setting in which it
will show, with Purdue intensity mandating a high level of energy to
be able to compete for the full 40 minutes.
The Boilermakers have an extra day to prepare for this grudge match,
and also the bonus of getting Lewis Jackson back into the rotation, a
missing piece to the puzzle the first time around. They are 9-3 ATS
as Big 10 underdogs since the Robbie Hummel recruiting class first
donned these uniforms, and while this is the only opposing Big 10
court on which they do not have a victory, note that the losses on
each of the last two trips came in Overtime. Those dominating wins at
Michigan State and at home vs. Iowa last week show a team that is
peaking at the right time, and we expect them to win this one
outright, with the points being offered a solid cushion.
4* #737 DETROIT over WRIGHT STATE
We have laid out the basics behind calling Detroit a ?tough out?
several times already this season, and in going 7-1 ATS in an
underdog role since that opening night rout at California the Titans
are living up to the moniker. They may not always look pretty on the
court, but Ray McCallum has a physical group that plays hard, and
defends the basket tenaciously. So with a chance to take this many
points in a slow tempo game in which the offense is hard-pressed to
score, it should be no surprise that we land on this one.
Key by the presence of Eli Holman inside (34 blocked shots in 13
conference games), Detroit is allowing just 64.9 points per game in
Horizon League play, on 40.1 percent shooting from the field, and
having Holman around also means that the perimeter defenders can
extend further, which is why they are allowing only 29.7 from 3-point
range. Throw in a +4.4 advantage on the boards, and you can see how
difficult it becomes to put a margin together against this team ?
they have not lost a conference game by this spread all season, and
that includes already hooking up with Butler twice, while getting a
couple of outright road wins brings confidence.
Wright State brings the usual solid fundamentals under Brad Brownell,
but the Raiders are not gifted with a deep stock of talent. They are
averaging just 65.7 in league play on 43.2 percent shooting, and have
been out-rebounded through those 13 games. They gutted out a 61-59
road win at Detroit in the first go-round when the Titans missed a
pair of shots on the final possession, and it will not be easy for
them to generate anything much easier than that ? they do not press
or push tempo, and when you settle into half-court play against this
class of defense, the points come begrudgingly.
6* #790 SAINT LOUIS over RHODE ISLAND
It is most rare at this time of season to find a team with the better
conference record as this size of home underdog. And it is almost
unheard of for this kind of defensive gap to be in this price range.
But once again it is a case of what ?sex appeal? means in the
marketplace. Rick Majerus and his Billikens simply do not bring any.
But winning ugly pays the same as winning pretty, and that gets us in
the game here, big time.
In going 7-3 in Atlantic 10 play, Saint Louis has only been beaten
one time in regulation, a tough trip to face a nationally-ranked
Richmond team that had a prime revenge motive after losing on this
court earlier. The Billikens are allowing a minuscule 56.3 points per
game in regulation play in the conference, at only 40.6 percent
shooting, including a microscopic 23.8 from 3-point range, and there
have only been 106 assists against this defense in 430 Atlantic 10
floor minutes. It is a case of a team buying in to what the coach is
preaching, and with nine different players averaging at least 11
minutes per game the depth is there to guard tenaciously to the final
buzzer. That is a problem for Rhode Island, because it is not the way
the Rams prefer to play.
Saint Louis has won outright as road underdog in each of the first
two home games in this series since Majerus took over the program,
beating the spread by 25 points in the process, with Rhode Island
being held to 61 and 58 points. And while the Billikens have used
their defensive tenacity to move towards the top of the league
standings, the Rams have been a flat-out disaster on that end of the
court ? they are allowing a stunning 48.4 percent from the field in
conference games, dead last in the Atlantic 10, including 39.5 from
3-point range, and they are losing the battle of the boards by -4.6
per outing. Those are awful attributes to have as a road favorite in
this kind of setting, and it explains why their two previous step-up
conference trips were not competitive, losses at Temple and Xavier by
a combined 33 points. Saint Louis is not in the class of those
opponents talent-wise, but the Billikens create perhaps even more
difficulties from a matchup standpoint, and that means an excellent
chance for the outright upset, with the generous points being offered
not needed.
6* #721 ATLANTA over L.A. CLIPPERS
Rarely does a road team this far from home ever bring the focus on a
particular game that the Hawks have tonight. And rarely does any home
team in professional sports bring as little life as the Clippers will
to these proceedings. So time to step things up here.
The Hawks made a tactical decision in preparing for this four-game
western swing ? having played one of their worst games of the season
in losing 94-76 at home to Miami prior to the break, they resumed
practice in Los Angeles on Monday, instead of Atlanta. Monday was a
hard day of conditioning drills that Mike Woodson put them through to
get the discipline back where it needed to be, and it appeared to
have a cathartic effect as they went though a crisp Tuesday session
to prepare for this matchup, aided by that fact that Zaza Pachulia
and Jamal Crawford are both back to full health (from Woodson -
<i>?Guys are focused, and there?s been no whining for all the running
and stuff we?ve done. Everybody is just doing what they have to
do.?</i> We will call for them to come out with a tight level of
execution, taking a weak opponent much more seriously than would
ordinarily be the case.
The Clippers bring no such chemistry or focus. In opening 0-4 SU and
ATS under Kim Hughes, losing to the spread by 67 points in the
process, the train has come off the tracks, and instead of bringing
some optimism. And cohesion under their new coach, from the break,
they instead have to adjust to Marcus Camby and Ricky Davis departing
and Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw coming on board. Those roster
shuffles still leave them with eight players that will be free agents
when the season ends, an almost impossible setting to get a losing
team to focus on the little things that have to be done to win games,
At least Hughes is up front about it, with his audition for the
full-time job hardly laid out well for him - <i>"We're out of the
playoffs, clearly. My thought is you don't look at it that way. You
look at trying to teach every day. Try to get a little bit better
every day. Sometimes at this time of year that can be tough. And
that's the trouble of teaching this time of year.?</i> It is
exacerbated now by the loss of Camby?s defensive presence, and off of
last night?s 109-87 drubbing in Portland there is no fear of any kind
of turnaround here, especially with Blake and Outlaw getting nothing
more than a shoot-around to acclimate to their new teammates. Having
gone from a playoff team to this sad lot, one can only imagine their
enthusiasm level to be here (especially since they are on the ranks
of this roster?s free agents).
