Wednesday 2/11/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Short fights the norm for Brandon Thatch
Justin Hartling

All of Brandon Thatch's 11 career MMA victories have ended within the first round. Of those 11 victories, seven came by T/KO and four by submission.

'Rukus' has one professional loss that came early in his career, but that fight went the distance. Worth noting as Hatch's opponent, Benson Henderson, has gone the distance in nine of his 12 UFC fights.

Thatch is currently -125, for his main event fight Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnson-Horiguchi to co-main event UFC 186
Justin Hartling

Demetrious Johnson will defend his flyweight championship against Kyoji Horiguchi at UFC 186. The fight has replaced the Rory MacDonald-Hector Lombard match which was removed from the card without reason by the UFC.

'Mighty Mouse' has won seven consecutive matches, including five title defenses of the belt. Horiguchi is riding an impressive nine-straight winning streak, including all four of his UFC fights.

UFC 186 takes place on April 25 in Montreal, Quebec.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - February

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
2/1 4 22.5 22 UNDER
2/2 3 15.5 25 OVER
2/3 11 60 55 UNDER
2/4 3 16.5 11 UNDER
2/5 9 49.5 43 UNDER
2/6 5 27 25 UNDER
2/7 11 58 57 UNDER
2/8 8 43 45 OVER
2/9 5 25.5 28 OVER
2/10 9 50.5 47 UNDER
2/11 3 - - -
2/12 9 - - -
2/13 5 - - -
2/14 10 - - -
2/15 5 - - -
2/16 8 - - -
2/17 7 - - -
2/18 6 - - -
2/19 7 - - -
2/20 7 - - -
2/21 11 - - -
2/22 8 - - -
2/23 2 - - -
2/24 11 - - -
2/25 3 - - -
2/26 9 - - -
2/27 6 - - -
2/28 10 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Capitals (28-16) at Sharks (28-20)

Date: February 11, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

After suffering a humbling loss in their last contest, the Washington Capitals need to regain their offensive presence entering a season-high four-game trip.

They'll look to shore things up Wednesday night against the San Jose Sharks, who will try to salvage a win on their homestand after two lackluster defensive efforts.

Following a stretch in which they earned points in five of six games to gain a comfortable position in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, the Capitals (28-16-10) fell to Philadelphia 3-1 on Sunday to snap a three-game win streak.

They managed only 14 shots on goal - their lowest total since March 18, 2011 - and need to turn it around on a trip that also features Los Angeles, Anaheim and Pittsburgh.

"I didn't like our execution," coach Barry Trotz said. "You can't get shots (on goal) if you miss the net, you can't get shots if you don't get the puck to the next level, and we turned a lot of pucks over in the neutral zone."

Alex Ovechkin scored on the power play to prevent Washington's second shutout in six games, but the special teams still posted a rare poor performance. The Capitals converted on only one of six man-advantage opportunities and their penalty kill surrendered a goal for the second straight game.

"It's not good enough," Ovechkin told the NHL's official website. "Power play was terrible today. All five guys didn't get any opportunities, myself, you know, missed the shots and the stick. It's tough."

Washington ranks among the league's best with a 23.1 percent conversion rate on the power play, but it has gone 1 for 8 in its last three games.

The Capitals scored twice with the advantage in a 6-5 shootout loss to San Jose (28-20-7) on Oct. 14. The Sharks chased Braden Holtby with three first-period goals and Joe Pavelski scored on Justin Peters in the shootout to clinch their 18th win in 20 meetings.

While that performance stands as one of the worst of Holtby's career, the fifth-year netminder has played exceptionally well of late. In his last five starts, Holtby owns a 0.80 goals-against average and has two shutouts.

San Jose will look for another strong performance against the Capitals after Monday's 4-1 loss to Calgary.

"We made enough mistakes where they could capitalize," coach Todd McLellan told the league's official website. "They in turn made some mistakes, but we didn't capitalize. We in turn have to look at our net intensity and what we're doing with the puck."

A more pressing issue for the Sharks may be their defensive play, which has allowed nine goals over the last two games. Antti Niemi has lost three of four and has posted an .873 save percentage in his last two.

San Jose's defense ranks near the bottom of the NHL with 3.29 goals allowed per game since Jan. 3, while Washington has allowed only 2.24 per game in that same span.

The Sharks and Capitals have gone to a shootout in each of their last three meetings, with San Jose taking two of them - both in the nation's capital. Niemi started all three of those contests and is 5-0-1 against Washington since joining San Jose in 2010.

Washington's 3-2 shootout win at The Shark Tank on March 22 ended a 12-game winless skid in San Jose. The Capitals haven't won two straight there since 1993.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

February is historically an Under-whelming month for NHL bettors
By JASON LOGAN

February is go time for NHL teams. The All-Star break is long gone and clubs are jockeying for spots in the standings over the next two months. And with that uptick in intensity comes more postseason-style play.

Goalies are sharper, lineups are finely tuned, and the blueline is tightened like a belt with defensemen digging in for a battle. This switch in playing style has produced a 19-35-9 Over/Under record so far this February (343-379 O/U on the season). In fact, it’s a trend that has steadily produced more Unders than Overs during the last 11 NHL regular seasons (2004-05 season cancelled due to lockout).

Since the 2003-04 campaign, February hockey has produced a 737-940-125 Over/Under record – a 56 percent lean toward the Under. The number of Under winners has increased to 58 percent over the past five NHL seasons, with teams going 301-421-57 Over/Under between February 2011 and this month. That includes a 31-48-4 O/U mark last season when the Winter Olympics put the breaks on the NHL schedule for most of February.

Oddsmakers don’t really do anything different when it comes to setting totals at this time of year, and are really just keeping an eye on current trends across the league in February. They do look to tighten totals when the schedule hits March, with the postseason hunt getting down to the home stretch. But by then, the betting value could be long gone.

“It still depends on the matchup,” says John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas. “You have to look at how the teams are playing defensively and what that game means at that point in the season. It still comes down to the individual matchups. We don’t try to do anything different this time of the year. No drastic changes.”

Over the last 11 seasons, NHL games have averaged 5.56 total goals per contest against an average Over/Under number of 5.48 – a surprising comparison considering the rate the Under has cashed in during that span. Those full 11 seasons have averaged 5.62 goals per game. And, over the last seven NHL seasons, only one February (2012) averaged more goals than the season scoring average.

A closer look points out that scoring has been on the decline in February, dropping from 6.3 goals per game in February 2006 to 5.1 goals per game in February 2014 – an overall trend in the NHL from year to year. This season, teams have netted an average of 5.24 goals per game against an average total of 5.29 in February. On the entire schedule, NHL teams are scoring 5.5 goals a night in 2014-15 which pretty much matches up with the most popular number for NHL totals.

This past weekend, NHL games finished 7-9-3 Over/Under and four of the five games on Monday’s board have totals of five goals. Perhaps the window is closing on another Under-rated February in the NHL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

When East meets West: The smartest bet in the NBA you're overlooking
By JASON LOGAN

The NBA’s All-Star Weekend is almost here, headlined by the annual showcase of East versus West which takes place in Brooklyn this Sunday.

The West has long been considered the dominant conference, and the records show that. The Western Conference is a much deeper pool of teams while in the Eastern Conference, clubs can scrap into the playoffs with a winning percentage well below .500.

For the most part, the West has beaten up on Eastern opponents this season. Heading into Monday’s action, the East is just 128-178 SU in non-conference games – a .418 winning clip – this season. However, due to the general consensus that the West is a much better conference, there’s a slight overreaction to the East-v-West spreads with the East showing value at 155-144-7 ATS – a near 52 percent ATS win rate.

That especially held true this weekend, which featured 12 non-conference games between Friday and Sunday. Eastern Conference teams more than held their own, going 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS.

Eight of those games featured the Eastern Conference representative as the home team, with those host posting a 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS mark versus Western visitors. Eastern teams on the road at Western venues were just 1-3 SU and ATS. On the season, Eastern Conference teams are 52-101 SU and 75-71-7 ATS in non-conference road games and 76-77 SU and 80-73 ATS at home to Western rivals.

While a 52 percent ATS rate isn’t exactly the Midas Touch of NBA betting, the 58 percent Under rate in those non-conference clashes is a lot more appealing to basketball bettors. East-versus-West games have gone 126-174-6 Over/Under this season heading into Monday, including a 4-8 O/U record in non-conference games the last three days.

The rate of Unders increases when Eastern Conference teams go West, with a 58-91-4 Over/Under mark – a 61 percent winning percentage for the Under. In the four East-at-West games this weekend, three stayed below the total.

Here are some teams providing solid ATS or O/U value in conference games:

Best non-conference bets

Atlanta Hawks (13-5 ATS)
Boston Celtics (12-8 ATS)
Milwaukee Bucks (12-8 ATS)
Orlando Magic (12-9 ATS)
Phoenix Suns (14-7 ATS)

Best home non-conference bets

Philadelphia 76ers (9-1 ATS)
Cleveland Cavaliers (9-4 ATS)
Indiana Pacers (7-3 ATS)
Atlanta Hawks (7-3 ATS)
New Orleans Pelicans (6-2 ATS)
Los Angeles Lakers (5-2 ATS)

Best road non-conference bets

Dallas Mavericks (11-2 ATS)
Phoenix Suns (8-1 ATS)
Utah Jazz (8-4 ATS)
Orlando Magic 9-3 (ATS)
Indiana Pacers (7-3 ATS)
Miami Heat (7-5-1 ATS)
Atlanta Hawks (6-2 ATS)

Best non-conference Over bets

Minnesota Timberwolves (12-8 O/U)

Best non-conference Under bets

Cleveland Cavaliers (7-16-1 O/U)
Detroit Pistons (6-13 O/U)
Miami Heat (6-15 O/U)
Denver Nuggets (7-13-2 O/U)
Oklahoma City Thunder (6-14 O/U)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Finding the best betting value before the NBA All-Star Break
By JASON LOGAN

The NBA All-Star Break is the unofficial midway mark of the basketball season, and it’s just around the bend.

After a grueling three and a half months, this halfway hiatus can often catch teams looking ahead to some time away from the court, especially those teams dealing with injuries, locker room drama, or just plain crappy play.

The All-Star Break can also serve as a motivator – a reward for working so hard. Teams can use the stretch before the break as an excuse to finish strong and earn a few days off, giving them some added value when betting against the spread.

Here are three teams trying to take some momentum into the All-Star Break and three teams counting down the days until they can get away from their poisonous situations:

STRONG FINISHERS

Minnesota Timberwolves (9-40 SU, 20-28-1 ATS)

The Timberwolves are getting their pieces back in place just in time. Minnesota has already seen the benefit of returning point guard Ricky Rubio and are expected to get underrated forward Shabazz Muhammad back this weekend.

The T-Wolves had covered in four of their last six games before Thursday night, despite winning on the scoreboard only one time in that span. Minnesota actually won but didn’t cover against Miami – set as a rare favorite Thursday – but will be getting plenty of points in its final slate of games before the break. The Timberwolves go head-to-head with the top three teams in the NBA - Memphis, Atlanta and Golden State – in their next four games, with a lone softy coming at Detroit.

Charlotte Hornets (22-27 SU, 24-23-2 ATS)

The Hornets have won three in a row SU and ATS – all as underdogs – and are a profitable 6-3 ATS in their last nine games heading into the weekend. The former Bobcats are showing some tenacity on defense, limiting opponents to 39.3 percent shooting and an average of only 87 points in that three-game run (two of which came versus Washington). Charlotte shut down the Wizards for 33 second-half points Thursday.

The Hornets have played a road-heavy schedule recently, with four of their last six away from home. They have three games before the break, and two of those will be inside Time Warner Cable Arena. Charlotte visits Philadelphia Saturday, then comes back to North Carolina for stands against Indiana and Detroit before the break.

Brooklyn Nets (20-28 SU, 23-25 ATS)

The hosts of NBA All-Star Weekend have plenty going on behind the scenes. Team owner Mikhail Prokhorov is reportedly shopping the franchise and trade rumors are swirling around the roster involving some big-name players. But the Nets are doing their best to boost the sale price, playing some solid basketball.

They’ve won back-to-back games over quality opponents in the Clipper and Raptors, and have covered the spread in four straight heading into Friday’s Battle for the Big Apple with the Knicks. Brooklyn hits the highway for the final three games before the break, a chance to get away from the relentless New York media and a challenge that could bring this team closer together. Deron Williams’ return and the play of Brook Lopez is providing some serious pop off the bench for Brooklyn.

WEAK FINISHERS

Washington Wizards (31-20 SU, 20-30-1 ATS)

The Wizards could be feeling a little burned out after trying to keep pace with the Atlanta Hawks in the Southeast standings. Washington, which jumped out to a strong start to the season, is hitting the wall with five straight losses heading into Saturday’s game versus Brooklyn. The Wizards recently dropped two against the Hornets, with a loss to Atlanta sandwiched in between. They mustered an average of only 40 points in the second half during that three-game span.

Washington could be counting down the days until some time off – and so could its bettors after suffering through a nine-game ATS losing skid. And to add to that anxiousness, guard Bradley Beal left Thursday’s loss with a toe injury and is questionable for the weekend. After the home game versus the Nets, the Wizards host Orlando and then travel north of the border to play Toronto.

Miami Heat (21-28 SU, 22-25-2 ATS)

Staying in the Southeast Division, the Heat are another team just trying to survive until the All-Star Break. Miami has been lost on offense with guard Dwyane Wade down with a hamstring injury, averaging less than 87 points in the four games without him. Wade isn’t the only member of the Heat nursing an ailment. Luol Deng is battling through a sore calf and Mario Chalmers has a leg injury. Some time off on the sands of South Beach is just what the doctor ordered for Miami.

The Heat close of the first half of the schedule with two tough road games sandwiching a home stand against the Knicks. Miami is at San Antonio for a Finals rematch Friday, plays New York next Monday, before heading to Cleveland in a massive meeting with former star LeBron James and the Cavaliers. It doesn’t help Miami’s cause that five of their last six games before the break come on the road.

Atlanta Hawks (41-9 SU, 35-15 ATS)

Yeah, that’s right. The NBA’s top team finds its way to this list. Atlanta has been living under the microscope for a good part of the season, ever since it went on an insane 19-game winning streak. That included a 16-3 ATS record. The Hawks rebounded from their first loss since nearly Xmas with a win over Washington but run a gauntlet of tough games before the break.

The Hawks have a rather large target on their backs with Golden State coming to town Friday, then head off for road stops in Minnesota and Boston. It’s a stretch of four games in six nights with travel in between. A run like Atlanta went on is exhausting on and off the court and expectations could be way too high for this team looking forward to some time away from the pressures of staying on top.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game of Day: Heat at Cavaliers

Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers (-11.5, 193)

Dwayne Wade will not be in action when he and his Miami teammates visit old friend LeBron James and a surging Cleveland squad on Wednesday. Wade has missed six straight games due to a hamstring issue and while he will travel to Cleveland to be with his team, he is not expected to play and on Tuesday took himself out of the upcoming All-Star Game. The Heat were 1-4 in their first five games since Wade was sidelined before rallying to produce a 109-95 win over the New York Knicks on Monday.

Miami won its first matchup with James - with whom it won two championships in four seasons - on Christmas Day, a result that sent the Cavaliers into a 2-10 tailspin. They've recovered in a big way, with Sunday's 120-105 rout of the Los Angeles Lakers serving as their 13th win in 14 games. Cleveland's star trio of James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love combined for 82 points on 60.4 percent shooting as the Cavaliers won their 11th straight game when scoring at least 100 points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Lines opened as CLE -11.5 with a total of 193.

INJURY REPORT: Heat - G Dwyane Wade (out Wednesday, hamstring), F Shawne Williams (questionable Wednesday, hip). Cavaliers - N/A.

POWER RANKINGS: Heat (-1.2) - Cavaliers (-7.6) + home court (-3) = Cavaliers -9.4

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "I don’t know if there is as much of a revenge factor for LeBron as some would like to factor into the line after Miami won this matchup on Christmas Day. The Cavs certainly want to win, but it’s not a “circled” game on the schedule. With no D-Wade, the Heat will be hurting on the offensive end of the floor so I don’t expect them to get over 90 points. I think the under is worth a look." - John Lester

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Heat got the best of the Cavaliers in the first meeting, but that game was in Miami and it came at a time when Cleveland was not playing good basketball. Things are much different this time around with the game being played in Cleveland and the Cavs being 13-1 SU over their last 14 games. This game has lost some luster with Miami’s Dwyane Wade being out, but expect LeBron James and company will be quite focused to avenge their earlier season loss." - Steve Merril

ABOUT THE HEAT (22-29 SU, 23-26-2 ATS, 19-32 O/U): Hassan Whiteside was scoreless in eight minutes in the first matchup with the Cavaliers this season but the budding star has helped to transform the makeup in Miami with his rim-protecting ways and solid play on the offensive end. Whiteside continues to learn how to control his foul trouble after playing just 19 minutes and leaving following a technical foul against New York. "I think it's more so getting an understanding of the refs," Whiteside told the Miami Sun Sentinel. "Just talking to them and really letting me know what they're seeing."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (32-21 SU, 24-29 ATS, 18-34-1 O/U): Cleveland hopes to see more performances like the one Love put forth Sunday, when he scored 32 points and grabbed 10 rebounds, but it would likely settle for some consistency on the part of the star forward. Of the Cavaliers' four games this month, Love has scored five points twice while shooting a combined 3-of-15 and has averaged 28 points on 53.1 percent shooting in the other two games. Love, who was 7-of-8 from 3-point range against Los Angeles, missed all four of his long-range attempts and had five rebounds - less than half his season average - in the loss at Miami earlier this season.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cleveland.
* Cavaliers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Under is 6-0 in Heat's last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

CONSENSUS:67 percent of wagers are on the Cavs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Dino-Might'

Toronto Raptors off back-2-back victories defeating Clippers and most recently Spurs wrap up their pre All-Star game schedule Wednesday at the Air Canada Centre hosting the Washington Wizards. Toronto Raptors feeling better about themselves behind those two huge victories and having won eight of the past ten have got conditions on their side to keep the good times rolling. Raptors won the first two meetings with Washington this season and have won six of the past seven encounters with a sparkling 6-1 mark at the betting window. Look for Raptors to move to 4-1 SU/ATS after playing Spurs, Wizards to extend their 0-6 ATS road skid and 1-5 ATS slide as road underdogs vs the Eastern Conference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Teams to Watch - Big Ten
By Jim Feist

A Big 10 representative hasn't won college basketball 's national championship since 2000 (Michigan State), but Indiana got to the title game in 2002, as did Illinois (2005), Ohio State (2007), Michigan State (2009) and Michigan (2013), so they've been knocking on the door.

Will 2015 be the year that the conference breaks through?

Here's a look at some of the best of the Big 10 with the March tournaments on the horizon.

(Straight Up-Against the Spread Records through 2/8/15)

Wisconsin (21-2, 12-10): Bo Ryan's club is often about slowing the pace down, but not this season. The Badgers are Top 50 in the country in scoring and Top 20 in field goal shooting because of a powerful frontcourt. Wisconsin has 7-foot junior Frank Kaminsky (17 ppg, 8 rpg), 6-8 junior Sam Dekker (12.5 ppg) and 6-7 soph Nigel Hayes up front.

The backcourt lost talented senior guard Traevon Jackson. You have to wonder if this team has really been tested, facing only one Top 10 team….and losing at home 80-70 to Duke. They have tough road games remaining at Maryland and Ohio State.

Maryland (19-5, 7-12): The Terrapins have been a force all season, which included an impressive double overtime win at Michigan State. The Maryland offense revolves around a one-two punch of 6-2 freshman G Melo Trimble (16 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg) and 6-8 junior Jake Layman (14.7 ppg, 7 rpg). Maryland had only allowed one opponent to shoot better than 50 percent from the field through the first 18 games in a 76-65 loss to then-No. 7 Virginia on Dec. 3.

However, the last few weeks they’ve struggled, allowing Northwestern to shoot 54% and Indiana 60%, the latter an 89-70 defeat. They squeaked by Northwestern, 68-67, as -11.5 chalk. Maryland is on a 9-2-1 run 'under' the total on the road.

Ohio State (18-6, 7-11): The Buckeyes have enjoyed a great season with an offense ranked in the Top 20 in scoring and assists, plus one of the best in the nation in shooting over 50%. The offense pours in 80 ppg behind 6-5 freshman D'Angelo Russell (19.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg), 6-7 soph Marc Loving (11.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg) and 6-7 senior Sam Thompson (10 ppg).

Ohio State struggled early in key non-conference games, losing to Louisville (64-55) and to North Carolina (82-74). But they have looked better in Big 10 play, stuffing Indiana (82-70) and Maryland (80-56) in back-to-back showdown contests. The victory over the Hoosiers was a revenge game, losing 69-66 at Indiana last month. They allowed Indiana 52% shooting, including 12-25 from long range (48%), but OSU shot 62%. Ohio State finished with 26 points off of Indiana turnovers running their attacking, pressing defense. The Buckeyes are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Michigan State (15-8, 11-12): You need frontcourt muscle in the Big 10 and the Spartans have it with 6-6 senior Branden Dawson (12 ppg, 10 rpg) and 6-9 Matt Costello. They were expected to take a step back this season after losing their best backcourt players, but 6-5 junior Denzel Valentine (14 ppg, 6 rpg) has stepped up. They play tough defense for head coach Tom Izzo, losing 61-56 to Kansas allowing 37% shooting and 3-of-14 from long range. Michigan State took No. 12 Maryland to double overtime before losing 68-66 by a basket and lost in OT at Notre Dame by a point (79-78). They are the type of well coached, physical defense you don’t want to face in March.

Indiana (17-7, 11-12): Tom Crean’s team is running-and-gunning again, Top 20 in points scored while shooting 48% as a group led by 6-4 freshman James Blackmon Jr. (16.5 ppg, 5 rpg). Indiana is not a big group up front with 6-7 sophomore Troy Williams (13 ppg) and you have to wonder if the lack of rebounding and defense is taking a toll.

They recently lost three of four, all by double digits, including a 92-78 loss at Wisconsin last Tuesday while allowing 60% shooting. The Hoosiers hit 5 of 6 on late 3-pointers to make the score more respectable. The Badgers continually took advantage of Indiana defenders overplaying entry passes, allowing clear paths to the bucket. Can you rely so much on offense when tourney play commences?

Purdue (15-9, 14-6): The Boilermakers have been winning and covering, on a recent 8-2 against the spread run in Big 10 play. Purdue is doing it with defense behind 7-foot junior A.J. Hammons (11 ppg), 6-5 junior Rapheal Davis (11 ppg) and 6-7 freshman Vince Edwards. They held Indiana to 67 points and Iowa to 67 in back to back big wins, then showed no let-down by winning at Northwestern allowing 60 points. That was part of a stretch going 8-2 'under' the total against Big 10 foes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

St Joe's won his last four games with Rhode Island, sweeping two games LY by total of seven points; Hawks won last four home games, last three by 6 or less points. URI won last five games, last four by five points or less; they're 4-1 in A-14 road games. Rams' only two losses in A-14 play were by 4-5 points. URI is 8-2 in league despite turning ball over 23.4% of time and making 24.6% from arc. A-14 home underdogs of 4 or less points are 7-6 vs spread.

Miami won six of last eight games with Wake Forest, but lost four of last five visits here, in series where home side won seven of last nine games. Hurricanes lost three of last four games; they're 2-2 on ACC road, with dogs covering all four games, with last three decided by 5 or less points. Wake Forest are 2-3 in ACC home games, beating Va Tech/NC State; four of its five home games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT. ACC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.

Syracuse lost four of last six games, losing last three on road; team can't go to ACC tourney or to NCAAs, which has to hurt their mental state. Orangemen beat Boston College 69-61 in first meeting Jan 20 after being up 18 at half. Eagles hit only 27.3% inside arc. BC lost last four games, all by 9+ points; they're 2-2 as ACC home dogs. ACC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 6-4 vs spread. Syracuse's two road wins are by a total of three points, at Ga Tech/Va Tech.

West Virginia lost last two games by 19-18 points; they're 2-2 as home favorite, with home wins by 21-1-19 points. Mountaineers won last two games vs Kansas State after losing first three in series; they won 65-59 at K-State Jan 27, game where both sides had 20+ turnovers. Wildcats lost last four games, scoring 55 ppg; they're 3-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 6-11-17 points. Big X double digit home favorite are 5-4-1.

Georgia is 3-0 vs Texas A&M in SEC play, winning by 7 in its only visit here two years ago; Dawgs lost last two road games, scoring 54 ppg- they are 2-1-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-17-11 with wins at Vandy, Miss State. Aggies won seven of last eight games, are 3-0 as home favorite, winning SEC home games by 4-12-11 points, with only loss to Kentucky. SEC home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9-1 vs spread.

Penn State covered its last six games (3-2 last five SU); they're 6-0 as Big 14 underdog, 5-0 on road- none of their last five road losses are by more than six points. Lions swept Ohio State LY with two wins by total of 3 points, after losing 17 in row to Buckeyes. Ohio State won four of last five games, si 4-1 as home favorite, winning last four home games by 16-19-12-34 points. Big 14 double digit home favorites are 3-11 vs spread.

Coach Cooley is expected back on bench for Providence, which is 4-1 at home in Big East, losing only to St John's. Friars split last six games vs Villanova, with four of last five decided by 3 or less points. Wildcats are 1-2 in last three visits here, winning in OT LY. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-4 vs spread. Villanova won/covered its last four games; all eight of their conference wins are by 12+ points- they're 3-2 as Big East road favorites.

Virginia lost best player Anderson in last game; they just finished 3-game stretch of Duke-UNC-Louisville, soft spot here vs NC State squad they beat 61-51 Jan 7, game State led by point with 8:43 left. Cavaliers are 4-1 as ACC road favorites; three of their last four games were decided by 6 or less points. Wolfpack lost four of last five games, with three of four by 5 or less points- they lost their last three home games. ACC home dogs of 6+ points are 4-7 vs spread.

Indiana made 15-22 from arc in 89-70 home win over Maryland Jan 22, a game that was only 38-35 at half. Hoosiers are 2-3 since, losing all three road games by 12-16-14 points. Maryland was down 40-17 at half in last game at Iowa; Terrapins are 2-3 in last five games (0-5 vs spread), with wins by total of 7 points- they're 2-3 as home favorites, with three wins by 8+ points. Big 14 home faves of 6 or less points are 17-15 vs spread.

Oregon outscored USC 25-11 on foul line in 75-67 home win Jan 22, 9th win in row for Ducks over USC- they won last four visits here by 10-10-2-10 points. Oregon won five of last six games but is 1-3 on Pac-12 road, with only win by point at Arizona State. Trojans lost last eight games, with five of last six by 8 or less points; they lost last four home games, including a triple OT loss to Colorado. Pac-12 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.

Oregon State beat UCLA 66-55 at home Jan 22, holding Bruins to 31.1% from floor; Beavers won here in OT LY, after losing previous nine visits to Westwood- teams split last six in series overall. UCLA is 4-0 at home in Pac-12 with three wins by 10+ points; Bruins are 6-8 in last 14 games as they head towards NIT. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 9-5-2 vs spread. State is 1-4 on road, with four losses by 12+ points and a win at Washington State.

Larry Nance Jr is out for Wyoming; they lost by 23 at Air Force without him Saturday. Cowboys lost 60-52 at home to San Diego State Jan 14, as Aztecs hit 19-25 on foul line in their 7th win in last nine series games vs Wyoming, which scored 48.7 ppg in three MW losses. Aztecs scored an average of 55.3 ppg in last three games; they're 2-3 as home faovorites in league, winning home games by 4-14-6-11-20 points. Mountain West double digit home favorites are 10-6 vs spread.

Eastern Kentucky won 66-57 at Morehead State 11 days ago, making 23-27 on foul line in game they trailed by 7 at half; EKU won five of last six games with Morehead, but they lost four of last five games here, as hosts are just 2-7 in last nine series games. Eagles won five of last six, with the EKU loss only loss in that stretch; they're 4-1 on OVC road, with loss at Tenn-Martin by 3 in overtime. OVC home faves of 6+ points are 9-15.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Wednesday, February 11 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Don’t be surprised if you see some unusual results in NBA action on Wednesday. Most teams that are dealing with injured guys likely will rest them to get some extra time off ahead of the All-Star Break, which begins after the one game on the schedule Thursday night. Remember, the break is longer this season as the schedule doesn’t pick back up until Feb. 19. The players wanted a few more days off, and Commissioner Adam Silver obliged, although it has meant a few more back-to-backs overall. Here’s a look at Wednesday’s busy slate.

Knicks at Magic (TBA)

New York enters on a four-game losing streak, three by double digits. The Knicks haven’t scored more than 97 points in that stretch. Carmelo Anthony left Monday’s loss in Miami in the fourth quarter with a recurrence of knee soreness. I’d be somewhat surprised if Melo plays here, but I know he wants to play in the All-Star Game at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. Then he will be shut down for the season soon after, mark my words. We might have seen his final regular-season game already. Orlando dropped its second straight Monday, 96-80 in Washington. The Magic are now 1-2 under interim coach James Borrego. Starting forward Tobias Harris sat out with a bruised right knee suffered on Sunday. The Knicks and Magic have split two meetings, both in New York.

Key trends: The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their past six after a loss. The “over/under” has gone over in 10 of Orlando’s past 11 vs. teams with a losing record. New York is 5-1 ATS in its past six in Orlando.

Early lean: Have to wait on Melo, but I expect a Magic win regardless.



Hawks at Celtics (+7, 203.5)

Atlanta finishes up the greatest first half in team history and has won 36 of its past 40 games. The Hawks bounced back from a loss in Memphis on Sunday with a 117-105 victory in Minnesota on Monday. All-Star point guard Jeff Teague was questionable for that but did play. Al Horford, another All-Star, led the way with 28 points. Boston’s three-game winning streak ended Saturday in Milwaukee, 96-93. Celtics forward Tayshaun Prince played after missing the previous four games with an injury. Atlanta is 2-0 vs. Boston this year.

Key trends: The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their past eight Wednesday games. The under is 5-1 in Boston’s past six after a loss.

Early lean: Hawks and over.



Spurs at Pistons (TBA)

Detroit was in Charlotte on Tuesday. I could see the Spurs a bit flat here as they won 95-93 in Indiana on Monday to give Coach Gregg Popovich his 1,000th career victory. San Antonio rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit and got the winning 18-foot baseline jumper from Marco Belinelli with 2.1 seconds left. Manu Ginobili sat the game out. Only two coaches, Phil Jackson and Pat Riley, reached 1,000 wins faster than Popovich. He is 1,000-462 in 19 NBA seasons, all with San Antonio. The Spurs lost 105-104 at home to Detroit on Jan. 6 on a last-second score by Brandon Jennings.

Key trends: The Spurs have covered one of their past nine games. The over is 9-1 in Detroit’s past 10 vs. teams with a winning record. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: I think Pistons win this outright.



Wizards at Raptors (TBA)

Washington has won two straight since a five-game skid. The Wiz handled visiting Orlando by 16 on Monday. John Wall fell one point shy of a triple-double. Guard Bradley Beal sat out a second consecutive game with a sore right big toe so he might sit again. Forward Kris Humphries took a hard fall in the first quarter and didn’t return. I wouldn’t expect to see him. The Raptors beat visiting San Antonio 87-82 on Sunday for their second straight win. Toronto is 2-0 vs. Washington this season and this is the final scheduled meeting.

Key trends: Washington has failed to cover six straight on the road. It is 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Toronto.

Early lean: Raptors win comfortably.



Kings at Bucks (TBA)

Second of a back-to-back for Sacramento as it was in Chicago on Tuesday. The Kings were without starting point guard Darren Collison for that game, and small forward Rudy Gay was questionable. I expect this game to be the last for interim coach Tyrone Corbin as George Karl is expected to take over as head coach during the break. The Bucks have won two straight. They rallied from a 17-point hole Monday against Brooklyn to win a fifth in a row at home. A win here and the Bucks would double their 2013-14 output. Milwaukee won 108-107 in Sacramento on Dec. 18.

Key trends: The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their past 10. The over is 4-0 in the past four in this series. The Kings have covered five of their past six in Milwaukee.

Early lean: Bucks will roll.



Warriors at Timberwolves (+10, 216.5)

This is one of those games where it wouldn’t surprise me if something wacky happened, even a Wolves win. Golden State is dragging; even Coach Steve Kerr has admitted that the team really needs the break. You could see that on Monday as the Warriors struggled to an 89-84 win over the 76ers. Draymond Green left that with an ankle injury and is questionable here. Minnesota’s season-high three-game winning streak ended Monday against Atlanta. Shabazz Muhammad did return for the first time since Jan. 9 and had 18 points and eight boards. Golden State is 2-0 vs. Minnesota this season, winning both by double digits.

Key trends: The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in the past six in Minnesota. The under is 5-1 in those six.

Early lean: I like the points here and for sure over.



Pacers at Pelicans (TBA)

New Orleans has dropped two straight, both at home. Anthony Davis left Saturday’s defeat to Chicago with a shoulder injury after a scary fall and he didn’t play in Monday’s 100-96 loss to Utah. Ryan Anderson also missed the Jazz game with a sore right elbow. Davis and Anderson average 39.4 points combined per game, and they are day-to-day. Indiana’s three-game winning streak ended in a 95-93 loss at home to San Antonio. George Hill’s 3-pointer for the win bounced off the rim at the buzzer. The Pacers beat the visiting Pelicans 96-84 on Dec. 23.

Key trends: Indiana is 4-0 ATS in its past four after a loss. The over is 5-1 in the Pelicans’ past six. Indiana has covered six straight meetings.

Early lean: Have to wait on Davis.



Grizzlies at Thunder (-4, 199.5)

Memphis hosted Brooklyn on Tuesday. Oklahoma City has won two straight high-scoring games. The Thunder beat the Nuggets 124-114 in Denver on Monday. Kevin Durant had 20 points and Russell Westbrook 26. However, Thunder center Steven Adams will be lost for at least three weeks after undergoing surgery Monday to repair a broken bone in his right hand. He was hurt in Sunday’s blowout of the Clippers. Memphis has won two low-scoring games against the Thunder this season.

Key trends: The home team has covered eight of the past 12 meetings. The over is 4-0 in OKC’s past four overall.

Early lean: Love OKC here.



Heat at Cavaliers (-11.5, 192.5)

Of course, the game everyone was looking forward to on Christmas was LeBron James going back to Miami for the first time, and James welcomes his former club to Cleveland for the first time on Wednesday. Could the Cavs be caught looking ahead to Thursday’s big game in Chicago to close the first half? Miami has played six straight games without Dwayne Wade due to a hamstring injury, and he’s not likely here or in the All-Star Game. Wade had 31 in the Heat’s 101-91 win over the Cavs on Dec. 25.

Key trends: Cleveland has covered eight of its past nine at home. The under is 12-2 in the Heat’s last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over. If it was any team but the Heat, maybe it would be a look-ahead game for LeBron and Co., but he wants to beat Miami I’m sure.



Jazz at Mavericks (TBA)

Dallas comes off a 115-98 loss to the Clippers on Monday. The Mavs lost two of their best players, Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis, to injuries early in the game. They are both doubtful here, with Ellis undergoing an MRI on his hip. Chandler’s injury isn’t thought to be serious. And of course Dallas remains without Rajon Rondo. Utah won in New Orleans on Monday for its second straight win. Gordon Heyward filled the stat sheet with 32 points, eight assists and seven rebounds. The Jazz are 0-2 vs. the Mavericks, losing each by at least 18 points.

Key trends: Utah is 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-2 in the past nine in Dallas.

Early lean: It Ellis and Chandler sit, Jazz pull the upset.



Lakers at Trail Blazers (-12.5, 199)

Los Angeles hosted Denver on Tuesday. Portland has been off since a 109-98 win in Houston on Sunday. LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points and Damian Lillard 23. The Blazers are 2-0 vs. the Lakers this season. Thus with a win here, the Trail Blazers will have won three regular season games against the Lakers for the first time since 1996-97 (3-1). Lillard is averaging 35.6 points in his past three games vs. L.A.

Key trends: The road team has covered seven straight meetings. The over is 4-1 in Portland’s past five vs. the West.

Early lean: Blazers and over.



Rockets at Clippers (-2.5, 213)

Houston was at the Suns on Tuesday. The Clippers ended a four-game losing streak with Monday’s 115-98 win in Dallas. DeAndre Jordan had another monster game with 22 points and a career-high 27 rebounds. He’s going to have to continue to put up big numbers while Blake Griffin is out a minimum of three weeks. Jordan is the first Clippers player with at least 20 points and 25 rebounds in a single game since the team moved to Los Angeles prior to the 1984-85 season. J.J. Redick was a surprise return Monday after missing three games with back spasms and had 15 points. The Clippers won the only meeting with Houston thus far 102-85 on Nov. 28. The Rockets were very short-handed then, including without Dwight Howard.

Key trends: The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven.

Early lean: Clippers and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Lookahead spot

The All-Star break can’t come soon enough for the Los Angeles Clippers. In the ultra-competitive Western Conference, a four-game losing skid can instantly drop a team from a Top 4 spot to the fringe of the playoff cut – and that’s where L.A. found itself before snapping that slide with a win over Dallas Monday. The Clippers are a tired team, coming off the eight-game “Grammy Trip” which had L.A. away from home since Jan. 28.

On top of that relentless schedule, the Clippers just lost star forward Blake Griffin for three weeks due to surgery to cut out a staph infection. Los Angeles needs some time to breathe and collect itself before making a push in the second half of the season. The All-Star break offers that but not before tangling with the Houston Rockets Wednesday. The Clippers haven’t defended the Staples Center this season with an 11-16 ATS mark at home and are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games against Houston. Looking ahead to some much-need time off could leave the Clips flat Wednesday.

Letdown spot

The La Salle Explorers know they’re a long shot for the NCAA tournament and that playing in the Atlantic 10 limits the chances they have to impress the selection committee. La Salle does, however, have a respectable RPI (0.5569) at 79th in the country and their strength of schedule is 51st in the land (0.5588) with teams like Virginia, Villanova and Wednesday’s opponent, No. 22 VCU, headline the calendar.

A win over the ranked Rams could be just what the Explorers need to bulk up their tournament resume and kick start a strong finish to the A-10 slate. Win or lose, though, La Salle will be ripe for a letdown against the Davidson Wildcats Saturday. Davidson is in a similar spot as the Explorers, needing to put some wins together, and is a solid 7-2 ATS away from home.

Schedule spot

The Iona Gaels are the top team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, boasting an 11-2 conference record and an 18-6 SU mark overall (9-13 ATS). The Gaels have won five in a row with just one of those games coming as a true road contests. But now, Iona stares down a nasty chunk of schedule that has it on the road for four straight MAAC contests, starting Tuesday at Fairfield and extending to Feb 20 at Marist.

That’s a string of four road games in 11 days, with things getting hairy in between. Following Tuesday, the Gaels hit the court Friday at Manhattan and then Sunday at Quinnipiac. Iona is tremendous at home but all six of its losses have come away from New Rochelle. The Gaels are the second-highest scoring team in the nation – 82.8 points on 48.1 percent shooting – but this road stretch will test Iona’s legs and ability to continuously play at that breakneck pace – 73.6 possessions per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Boston Celtics

Edges - Celtics: 14-6 ATS as a dog of 6 or more points, including 7-0 ATS the last seven; and 4-1 SUATS with same season double revenge in this series. Hawks: 4-21 SU and 9-16 ATS away in this series with win percentage of more than .375 on the season; and 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS in non-division games after Timberwolves. With Boston 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS at home in its last 14 games when seeking same season double revenge-exact losses, we recommend a 1-unit play on Boston. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIM FEIST

Take: (710) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, February 11, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder. Both clubs playing very well, with Memphis posting a 38-13 record and 16-8 mark on the road. Oklahoma was without one or both of their star players for a good portion of the early season and that has contributed to their 27-25 record. In a very tough West Conference the Thunder are still not in a playoff spot as they sit tied for 9th with New Orleans, 1 1/2 back of that magical 8th spot. The Grizzlies are 2nd in the conference, 3 1/2 back of Golden State and three ahead of third place Houston. This gave has much more meaning to the Thunder, as they are competing with some tough teams to get into the playoffs. OKC has won two straight and four of its last five games. Memphis has only lost once in its last 10 games and twice in the last 15 games. OKC is 0-2 against the Grizzlies this year, though one of those games they were without both Westbrook and Durant. This game shapes up to be another low scoring contest as the previous two this year. OKC needs to take one here from one of their West foes. Lay the small number with the Thunder at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection: Golden State Warriors/Minnesota Timberwolves over 215 1/2

 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Wednesday: Richmond Spiders - 15

 

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John Anthony Sports

Wednesday's Free Selection: Indiana Hoosiers + 5 1/2

 

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Atlantic Sports

Wednesday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Davidson - 11 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY:Take BRADLEY +3 over Drake