Wednesday 12/30/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's Top Bowl Action

MEMPHIS TIGERS (9-3) vs. AUBURN TIGERS (6-6)

Birmingham Bowl
Legion Field - Birmingham, AL
Kickoff: Wednesday, Noon ET
Line: Auburn -3, Total: 62

Two teams of Tigers will claw at one another in Wednesday's Birmingham Bowl when Memphis seeks its 10th win against a 6-6 Auburn club.

Memphis (6-5-1 ATS) opened the season with eight straight victories, but allowed 111 points during a three-game losing skid before beating up SMU 63-0 in the regular-season finale. Auburn has been up and down in the win column all season and is tied for the fewest ATS victories in FBS at 2-9-1 ATS. This will likely be the final game for Memphis junior QB Paxton Lynch, who is projected as a high draft pick this spring. Lynch threw 7 TD in his last game to give him 28 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season.

There are plenty of betting trends for both schools on Wednesday, as Memphis falls in the category of excellent offensive teams (34+ PPG) going 52-21 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 since 1992 after allowing 14 points or less when facing an average defense (21-28 PPG allowed). Also, head man Darrell Dickey is 13-4 ATS after a double-digit conference win as a college head coach. But Auburn benefits from a pair of negative trends for its opponent, as Memphis is 5-20 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its last game since 1992 and 16-31 ATS after a win by 17+ points in this same timeframe.

On the injury front, Memphis is the more banged-up of the two schools with four players listed as questionable -- WR Roderick Proctor, WR Jae'Lon Oglesby, OL Taylor Fallin and LB Genard Avery. For Auburn, DL Jaunta'vius Johnson is doubtful to play while DL Prince Tega Wanogho (leg) is questionable.

Memphis has a potent offense that scores 42.7 PPG on 510 total YPG and 6.4 yards per play this season. Despite a passing game that racks up 324 YPG on 9.1 YPA, these Tigers actually rush the ball on 55% of their plays. The ground game helps the club hold the football for 30:43 per contest, as it produces a healthy 186 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC.

Junior QB Paxton Lynch (69% completions, 3,670 pass yds, 28 TD, 3 INT) stands tall at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds, but he has taken just 15 sacks all year. Of his nine completions against SMU, seven of those wound up as touchdowns, giving him eight multi-TD games on the season. Lynch has succeeded by spreading the wealth, as nine different teammates have at least 10 catches this season and eight players have caught at least two touchdowns.

On the ground, Memphis looks mostly to sophomore RB Doroland Dorceus (613 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 8 TD), who has found the end zone six times in the past six games. Defensively, Memphis has been playing great in the past three games where it has held opponents to 22.0 PPG and 317 total YPG, which lowers its season numbers to 27.0 PPG and 407 total YPG.

While these Tigers defend the run very well (138 YPG on 3.4 YPC) their pass defense is below average in surrendering 269 YPG on 8.0 YPA. The unit has also forced seven turnovers in the past two games, which followed a drought of three straight contests without a takeaway. However, their opponent has been outstanding in holding onto the football with only five turnovers in the past eight games combined.

Auburn's inconsistent offense gains 27.2 PPG on 367 total YPG this year, but those numbers are curiously better away from home (30.8 PPG, 371 total YPG). This is a run-heavy offense with 65% of the plays keeping the football on the ground. As a result of this, Auburn gains 192 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, but throws for only 175 YPG on 7.3 YPA. The team's best player is sophomore RB Peyton Barber (976 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 13 TD), who started October with 11 rushing touchdowns during a three-game stretch, but has found the end zone only once in the past five weeks combined. Barber will need to step up to take the pressure off erratic junior QB Jeremy Johnson, who has completed 60% of his passes for 1,043 yards (6.7 YPA), 9 TD and 7 INT. He has been sacked only nine times in his nine games, and has also rushed for five touchdowns in 2015.

Top WR Ricardo Louis (699 rec yds, 3 TD) has 470 more receiving yards than anybody on his roster, but has not put together two great games in a row with inconsistent receiving totals of 47, 154, 79, 137, 0, 22, 90 and 24 over the past eight games. The Auburn defense gives up 27.3 PPG on 422 total YPG this year, and hasn't been very good against either the run (190 YPG on 4.6 YPC) or the pass (232 YPG on 6.6 YPA). Away from home, the unit is allowing a hefty 233 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC. Although Auburn has collected a pedestrian 18 forced turnovers this year, the team has produced three takeaways in two of the past four contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Wednesday's college football bowl betting preview

Birmingham Bowl

Game played at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

Auburn Tigers vs. Memphis Tigers (+3, 63)

BIRMINGHAM BOWL STORYLINES

1. Memphis will head into bowl season without the head coach that guided them into the College Football Playoff Rankings before a late-season swoon. Justin Fuente took the vacant head coaching job at Virginia Tech, and the Tigers brought in former Arizona State offensive coordinator Mike Norvell on a five-year contract to be the new coach, but interim coach Darrell Dickey will guide Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., against Auburn on Dec. 30. Dickey is expected to remain with the program as part of Norvell’s staff moving forward.

2. Auburn had big expectations heading into the season but ended up falling off the pace as Jeremy Johnson struggled early at quarterback and eventually lost the job before regaining it down the stretch. The junior threw for two touchdowns and rushed for two more in a 56-34 win over Idaho on Nov. 21 that gained the team bowl eligibility but struggled again in a loss to Alabama the next week. Johnson threw only one of his seven interceptions on the season in the final four games.

3. Memphis will have the best quarterback on the field in senior Paxton Lynch, who might be the top quarterback taken in this spring’s NFL draft. Lynch threw for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions, with seven of those TDs coming on nine completions in a 63-0 victory over SMU in the regular-season finale. Lynch guided an offense that averaged 510.4 yards and 42.7 points.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Auburn as 2.5-point faves, but that has moved to -3. The total is down to 63 from the opening 64.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-50s with a 98 percent chance of thunderstorms.

TRENDS:

* Auburn Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Memphis Tigers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight vs. SEC.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Auburn Tigers last 10 Bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Memphis Tigers last 5 Bowl games.


Belk Bowl

Game played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6, 60)

BELK BOWL STORYLINES

1. A pair of potent offenses and dual-threat quarterbacks square off when Mississippi State takes on North Carolina State in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, N.C. Both teams average more than 400 total yards and 33 points per game, and their talented quarterbacks are the catalysts. Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott has passed for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 541 yards and 10 more scores; N.C. State’s Jacoby Brissett has rolled up 2,448 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 303 yards and five TDs on the ground.

2. N.C. State should enjoy a de facto home-field advantage. The Wolfpack are playing a short distance from home and have 15 players from the Charlotte area, including TE/FB Jaylen Samuels (315 rushing yards, 7 TDs; 64 receptions, 599 yards, 7 TDs). It will be the third time the Wolfpack have played in the bowl, where they defeated Louisville 31-24 in 2011 and beat South Florida 14-0 in the 2005 game, then known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

3. Both coaches have enjoyed success in bowl games. Dan Mullen has MIssissippi State in its sixth bowl in seven years and has posted a 3-2 record, though the Bulldogs have lost two of their last three bowls – including a 49-34 loss to Georgia Tech in last year’s Orange Bowl. N.C. State’s Dave Doeren is 2-0 in bowl games, including a 34-27 win over UCF in last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl – his first postseason trip with the Wolfpack.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Mississippi State as a 7-point fave, but that is now -6. The total is up to 60 from the opening 59.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-60s with a 100 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at around seven mph.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC.
* Over is 4-0 in Wolfpack last four neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six non-conference games.


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Game played at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 47)

FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Texas A&M will have a new quarterback when it faces Louisville in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville, Tenn. Sophomore Kyle Allen and freshman Kyler Murray, who combined for 2,896 yards, 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while splitting time this year, announced they were transferring out of Texas A&M as the Aggies began bowl preparations. Sophomore Jake Hubenak (a transfer from Blinn Junior College) is the only other Aggies quarterback to throw a pass this season.

2. The Cardinals, won five of their last six games to qualify coach Bobby Petrino for a school-record sixth bowl appearance, also used two starting quarterbacks this season. Dual-threat freshman Lamar Jackson led the Cardinals in rushing yards (734) and touchdowns (nine) in 11 appearances and six starts. Sophomore Kyle Bolin is a pocket-passer and threw for 1,154 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions.

3. The pressure will be on the two defenses to slow these offenses full of talented, young skill players. The Aggies rank third nationally in tackles for loss - led by Myles Garrett's SEC-best 18.5 - and held teams to 161.2 passing yards. Devonte Fields had 19.5 tackles for loss while the Cardinals ranked 13th in total defense (323.4).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Louisville as a 3-point dog but that has moved all the way to Louisville -4.5. The total has come down to 47 from the opening 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-40s with a 38 percent chance of rain early on.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. SEC.
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last four games overall.


Holiday Bowl

Game played at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+3.5, 50.5)

1. One month after Clay Helton was hired as the permanent head coach at USC, he'll experience his first bowl game when the Trojans meet Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 30. Helton was hired Nov. 30, two days after USC beat rival UCLA to advance to the Pac-12 championship game, but the Trojans lost to Stanford and ended up in San Diego rather than at the coveted Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Helton fired several of his assistants in the week following his hiring, which could leave the Trojans vulnerable in certain areas.

2. If the Trojans hope to extend their all-time record to 7-0 against Wisconsin, they'll need to find a way to protect quarterback Cody Kessler. USC has allowed 35 sacks this season, which is tied for eighth-most in the Pac-12, and the Badgers have a premier pass rusher in outside linebacker Joe Schobert. He has produced 18.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks and forced five fumbles, which ties the single-season program record; he could turn it into a long night for Kessler.

3. Wisconsin hasn't defeated a team with a winning record this season, losing a pair of nail-biters to Iowa and Northwestern, the teams that finished ahead of the Badgers in the West Division of the Big Ten. If they hope to get their first win against a team with a winning record, they'll likely need another big game from running back Dare Ogunbowale, who carried the ball 33 times in the regular-season finale against Minnesota, totaling a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown. There's also a possibility that injury-plagued but talented running back Corey Clement could be available, though he wasn't practicing with the team earlier in the month, instead working with the strength and conditioning staff.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Trojans as 3-point faves, but that has moved to -3.5. The total remains at the opening number of 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-50s under clear skies.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Trojans last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 7-3 in Badgers last 10 games overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Wednesday, December 30

MEMPHIS vs. AUBURN (Birmingham Bowl)
Gus Malzahn 2-10 vs. spread this season, , 2-15 last 17 on board, 4-19 last 23 vs. spread since early 2014. Memphis 5-0-1 last six as dog and won and covered its bowl vs. BYU LY.

Memphis, based on recent Auburn woes.


NC STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Belk Bowl)
MSU 2-3 vs. line last five bowls, and Dan Mullen just 9-9-1 last 19 games on board since mid 2014. Wolfpack 0-4 as dog TY though have covered 8 of last 10 away from Raleigh and are 12-6 last 18 on board.

Slight to NCS, based on team trends.


LOUISVILLE vs. TEXAS A&M (Music City Bowl)
Petrino a very middling 13-12 vs. spread since his return to the ‘Ville and just 2-6 vs. spread in bowls during his career (0-4 as bowl dog). Kevin Sumlin 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line in bowls, and Ags just 12-21 last 33 vs. spread since early 2013.

Slight to A&M, based on bowl trends.


WISCONSIN vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl)
Badgers 3-1-1 vs. line last five as bowl dog. Wiscy 11-5 last 16 as dog (though 0-1 TY). Paul Chryst right around .500 in almost all spread categories in his career. Trojans 1-2 vs. line last three bowls, 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from Coliseum.

Wisconsin, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Birmingham Bowl, Dec 30
Memphis is 9-3 this year, 19-6 last two years, after being 12-48 in previous five years, but they lost Fuente to Va Tech; they've got best QB on field in senior Lynch. Tigers won bowl LY over BYU in OT; they're 2-0 as underdogs this year. Auburn lost 34-31 each of last two bowl games; four of their last five bowls were decided by exactly three points. Malzahn is 0-2 in bowl games. SEC teams won/covered this bowl as favorites last three years. AAC squads are 1-5 in bowls this year, 2-9 last two years; they covered once in last six games as a bowl underdog.

Belk Bowl, Charlotte
NC State figures to have crowd edge with game in Charlotte, but SEC teams are 24-15-1 as bowl favorites last six years. In last four years, SEC teams are 7-3 vs ACC in bowl games. Last three years, ACC teams are 11-15 SU in bowls. NC State won three of last four bowls; Doeren is 2-0 in bowls. Wolfpack has senior QB who used to play at Florida, so SEC foe won't scare him. Prescott is a senior QB who is 18-7 last two years. Bulldogs are 3-2 in last five bowls, but were favored in all five games. NC State is 0-4 vs spread as an underdog this year, losing all four games by 11+ points.

Music City Bowl, Nashville
Extreme weirdness for Texas A&M, with top two QBs bolting out of school since regular season ended; #3 QB Hubenak was JC QB LY who is 12-27/92 in cameo action TY. Louisville is 7-2 in its last nine games after an 0-3 start; they're 1-5 vs bowl teams this year, four of its last six games were by 7 or less points. Aggies scored 42.8 ppg, in winning last four bowl games; they're 3-4 last seven games after a 5-0 start, giving up 230+ YR in those games. Sumlin is 4-1 in bowls overall. SEC teams won this bowl three of last four years; favorites covered four of last six. Petrino is 4-4 in bowls; Cardinals are 3-2 in last five bowls.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego
Pac-12 teams are 5-1 in bowls this year (4-2 vs spread); last three years, they're 14-10-1 as bowl favorites. USC won four of last five bowls, scoring 45 in last two. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 15-7-2 vs spread as bowl underdogs. Last three years, Pac-12 teams are 3-2 vs Big 14 in bowls. Trojan coach Helton won bowl game as interim coach in '13; USC won five of last seven games after a 3-3 start- they allowed 41+ points in last three losses. Wisconsin is on third coach in four years; they're 1-4 in last five bowls, winning in OT LY. Favorites are 13-11 vs spread in bowls; over is 16-8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 66 - Purse:$7200 - N/W $12000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 DONICUS 9/5


# 7 DERIVATIVE 2/1


# 3 DEWEY HAVE TO PLAY 8/1


The consensus here is that DONICUS is the one to beat. Cannot put a finger on it, but lean toward this colt for a play. Getting a good feel about this colt. Could surprise in here. This harness racer achieved a formidable TrackMaster Speed Rating in last race. Looks fresh to come right back. DERIVATIVE - The group knows that speed is King in harness racing. This contender will unlock our way to a nice top prize. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, give the nod to this one's chances. DEWEY HAVE TO PLAY - Has good speed ratings and definitely has to be thought of for a bet today. Many expert selectors will recognize the outstanding speed rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this grouping.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 9:18 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$11500 - FILLIES AND MARES OPEN 1 HANDICAP POST POSITIONS 1-4 DRAWN, POST POSITION 5 ASSIGNED AND POST POSITIONS 6-7 DRAWN.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY 7/2


# 5 CLASSIC CARPET 4/1


# 1 SAFE FROM TERROR 8/1


Feel pretty confident putting cash down on PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY. Has a clear-cut shot in this event, if she can repeat her back racing class. CLASSIC CARPET - The panel of smart guys always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning rate is confirmation of that. Composite pace figures say this contest should shape up nicely for this mare. Looking for a big effort. SAFE FROM TERROR - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 89 speed rating. Would appear to have a probability at being helped with second time Lasix here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $60000 Class Rating: 106

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS. TWO RACES OTHER THAN


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 PAULINA'S LOVE 3/1


# 11 CHATI'S ON TOP 7/2


# 4 CAUSEWAY CAROLYN 5/1


PAULINA'S LOVE is the best bet in this race. Has solid Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Had one of the top speed figs of this group of animals in her last outing. CHATI'S ON TOP - Her 98 average has this filly with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figures for this event. Ought to be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last race. CAUSEWAY CAROLYN - Has to be given a chance versus this field displaying solid figs as of late and an average speed figure of 100 under similar conditions. Win percentage one of the most respectable in this group of horses in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8300 Class Rating: 75

FOR CERTIFIED ARIZONA BREDS) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 WATDIFRENZDZITMAKE 8/5


# 1 HAWAIIAN STYLE 12/1


# 7 SHEZAMOVER 15/1


WATDIFRENZDZITMAKE should be supported as the wager in here. She should be given a shot given the very good speed figures. Going in a dirt route race gives this filly a very good shot. The Equibase Speed Figure of 76 from her most recent contest looks decent in here. HAWAIIAN STYLE - Has run very well when moving a dirt route race. SHEZAMOVER - Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently. Whitehouse has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 3:50pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 HARLANDAY (ML=5/1)
#9 STEALIN' SUMMER (ML=6/1)
#5 HAWK IS READY (ML=2/1)


HARLANDAY - The 'x-factor' at work here is that this colt has been working over this track getting ready for his first start. This steed comes out of a sharp barn for 1st time starters. Williamson has a very solid ROI (+133 pct). STEALIN' SUMMER - This animal already beat the probable favorite last out at Hawthorne. HAWK IS READY - Analyzers took note of this gelding in his maiden race at Hawthorne, sending him off at low odds. Look for a chance at a big improvement right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CAT'S ALLEY (ML=4/1), #2 LOOKING AT BITS (ML=8/1),

CAT'S ALLEY - In all probability won't make much of an impression in today's event. LOOKING AT BITS - Couldn't close at all on December 9th. Hard to invest in today at the expected odds. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to notch a much better speed figure than in the last race to battle in this dirt sprint.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HARLANDAY - Williamson wins 33 percent of the time with a debut horse. Catch him and cash.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 HARLANDAY is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7 - Post: 3:25pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,200 Class Rating: 100

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#14 AZURE DRAGON (ML=8/1)
#4 BAKYT (ML=7/2)
#11 STRIKING HIGHT (ML=10/1)


AZURE DRAGON - Dini brings him back again. I advise you stay with this strong gelding. Nice return on investment for this jockey and handler twosome. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fourth). Should rebound right here in this race, with some pretty decent odds. BAKYT - This pony coming off a good race in the last month is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This gelding is obviously on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 88, 92, 102 last 3 out. STRIKING HIGHT - Hinsley brings him back again. I advocate you stay with this strong gelding. Coming off a seventh place finish at Tampa Bay Downs, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good morning odds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 LIGHTHOUSE SOUND (ML=6/5), #3 ARCHWAY TO HEAVEN (ML=5/1), #7 ALL FOR PEACE (ML=8/1),

LIGHTHOUSE SOUND - Hasn't raced or had any works since Dec 5th. Not much value on this chalk horse. ARCHWAY TO HEAVEN - Never really did much at all in the last race on Dec 16th. Hard to wager on today. Hard to recommend any animal with lessening speed ratings of 90/85/75. ALL FOR PEACE - You always think this equine has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but he falters most every time. Last performed on December 18th at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing ninth. Not likely to get better off of that effort in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #14 AZURE DRAGON to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,11,14]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,11,14] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #2 - AQUEDUCT - 12:50 PM EASTERN POST

5½ FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK MAIDEN FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $16,000.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE

#3 MIA AND MOLLY
#6 SWEET PURSUIT
#2 BACK TO TOGA
#4 YOURADAISYIFYADO

#3 MIA AND MOLLY takes a class drop (-9) this afternoon, is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this maiden field today sprinting at, or about, 5½ furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts ... all against better company than she will face in this field today, hitting the board in a pair of those efforts. She's a daughter of Giant's Causeway, whose progeny have hit the board in 42% of more than 10,500 combined lifetime starts to date. Jockey Cornelio Velasquez and Trainer Linda Rice send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 52% of nearly 15- entries saddled as a team to date. The 5-1 shot, #6 SWEET PURSUIT has hit the board in both of her last two outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 12/30 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: BUZZEN GARLAND (7th)

Spot Play: CHICKENWITHABANJO (2nd)


Race 1

(6) DETAILER owns a decent burst and has beaten better on the year. (2) TRENTS RINGER had no excuse last time out at this level; command a price. (3) SANDY SOIL has room to improve third start back off a long layoff.

Race 2

(6) CHICKENWITHABANJO lightly raced pacer owns some ability and is the horse to beat with a smooth trip. (9) DREAMY FELLA comes into the race off a nice qualifier showing improvement. (8) BEAUTIFUL RED gets a tough post but does own a gate speed.

Race 3

(9) MCVICAR will look to make it three wins in five career starts against a suspect bunch. (5) MOLLY'S IMAGE finally stayed trotting in the qualifier. The 5-year-old mare should offer a good price and can hit the board if she minds her manners. (4) FLAWLESS ELEGANCE has just been racing evenly but picks up a significant driver change.

Race 4

(6) CAMMILICIOUS had a nightmare trip last week. If the filly gets a good setup she can score. (5) GOOD ROBERTA needs some racing luck but should offer value in a tough race to gauge. (4) BOOTYSHAKERBAKER gets sent out for a low percentage pilot; use underneath.

Race 5

(1) BLUE JACKET LUKE probably owns the most ability but has a tendency to make miscues. (4) WATCHA GOT ABBY filly has been outkicked late in two straight but can win with an early breather up front. (5) ABES EARL owns wins against similar; threat.

Race 6

(4) STRONG PLAYIN KING might have finally figured it out and can probably only beat himself. (1) Q COBRA JET will look to make it three wins in four starts; threat. (5) UNCLE DONNIE is one of three horses coming into the race off a victory.

Race 7

(9) BUZZEN GARLAND owns a big burst of speed and should find this spot much easier. (2) MONARCH BLUECHIP could be one of few threats to the top choice looking to make it three straight. (4) CALLIT AS U SEE IT filly does just enough to get a piece most of the time; use underneath.

Race 8

(1) DANNYS MAN just missed at this level last out racing gamely. (8) ARMBRO DOMI takes a significant drop in class. (5) SIR BARTON has been competitive at this level but needs a lot of racing luck to hit the top spot.

Race 9

(8) DOUBLESHOTOFCROWN has been out-closed in two straight but faces slightly weaker; fires early. (2) TOPVILLE CORVETTE gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but has shown good closing ability. (3) IMALLEXCITED had no excuse last week off an easy middle half; command a price.

Race 10

In a wide open and evenly matched race, (1) PANDAPOCKET benefits from the best post and will be used aggressively. (3) FAITH'S TATTLER is 0 for the year but should offer a big price. The pacer looks to be in line for a ground saving trip up close. (2) CF STING REI has just been racing evenly; use underneath.

Race 11

(5) ANASTASIA WHINNIE dropped and popped last week and will look to take no prisoners again; fires early. (9) TALLADEGA HANOVER has been competitive against much better on the year; threat. (Note: top choice NANOHIO was an early scratch).

Race 12

In a weak field full of question marks, (6) ARIANNA HALL has been facing much tougher and is versatile. (7) AISLING well bred trotter owns tons of back class and will offer a big price down in class. (8) AXLE has made the most money in the field on the year but needs a good setup; use underneath.

Race 13

(4) OK GERONIMO will look to make it two straight at this level. (1) FLYING METRO gets the best post and looks to be in line for a perfect pocket trip. (3) ZEBS CAM BO drops down a notch but is best used underneath.

Race 14

(9) IYAMWHATISHAM races inconsistently from week to week but a good effort puts him in the mix. (6) PRIME TIME POPPA scored down in class off a long layoff and has room to improve; threat. (1) ETERNAL RULER gets the best post in a tough race to gauge.

Race 15

(9) AUTO PILOT rarely wins but is capable of pacing a good mile from time to time. (3) UP ALL NIGHT takes a big dropdown to the bottom level; threat. (1) DO IT DOC'S WAY veteran pacer is better than what he shows on paper.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Sweet Pursuit, 5-1
(3rd) Rockford, 7-2

Delta Downs (1st) Make Do, 9-2
(5th) Unbridled Bandido, 5-1

Gulfstream Park (5th) Two Times Book, 6-1
(8th) Boom Boom Frankie, 4-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Regimented, 9-2
(5th) Top Gato, 4-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Wabash River, 9-2
(5th) Simply Smart, 7-2


Santa Anita (1st) And Then Some, 3-1
(8th) Dreamarcher, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Full Package, 9-2
(8th) Tiger Feet, 7-2


Turf Paradise (7th) Vee Secrets, 6-1
(8th) Penporium, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

-- Why does DirecTV carry Al Jazeera but not the Pac-12 Network?

-- Suns G Eric Bledsoe (knee) is done for the year. Bad news for Phoenix.

-- Baylor 49, North Carolina 38-- Bears didn't have a QB, so they ran ball for 645 yards in an impressive display of brute force.

-- LSU 56, Texas Tech 27-- Leonard Fournette scored five touchdowns.

-- Golden State Warriors have won 33 home games in a row.

-- Eagles fired Chip Kelly, who will get another chance quickly, either with Titans in NFL or at a school desperate to win. Morale of his story in Philly: You can't act like Belichick if you don't have Brady at quarterback.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

749 ARKANSAS @ 750 DAYTON 8:00 PM

Take: DAYTON -7.5 or -8

I listed two lines here, I generally use the Southpoint line for this space as they’re open for business at the book when I write this piece. They’re at -7.5, but almost everyone else shows -8. I’ll grade the pick at -8 here, but I played it at -7.5.

Dayton might well be the most underrated per capita sports city in the country. That’s not some crazy assessment. This is one helluva sports town. The Dayton Dragons are a Class A minor league baseball franchise that has now sold out an incredible 1,121 consecutive games, and they play in what by minor league standards is a good sized ballpark. That’s absolutely phenomenal.

The college hoop Flyers are a great draw as well. They ranked 24th nationally last season in attendance, and they’ve been in the top 30 for 18 straight years.

That ties in with tonight’s game, as while many college teams are waiting for the students to get back from holiday vacation break to fill up the seats, one can assume UD Arena will be its usual house of pain for the visiting team tonight.

Arkansas is that visiting team, and when it comes to laying eggs on the road, the Razorbacks have few peers. They have been a horrible road team for quite some time and it appears to be business as usual for Arkansas so far this season. They’ve played four games away from home, three of those on neutral courts, and they’ve lost them all.

As for Dayton, their lengthy home court winning streak concluded a couple weeks ago when they were upset by Chattanooga. That wasn’t as huge an upset as some might think, as the Mocs can play, and it was also on the heels of Dayton’s impressive win at Vanderbilt. But this is definitely a tough as nails home court.

The Flyers have just one other loss and that was a no doubt about it bludgeoning at the hands of Xavier. But for the most part, Dayton is getting the job done and they’re rightfully favored this evening.

There are some things that could go wrong here. The Flyers have been sloppy with the ball at times this season, and that high turnover rate is at least a concern against what can be a ball hawking Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks have also been deadly from beyond the arc this season. But that’s not really their game and getting inside looks likely won’t be easy against a stiff Dayton defense.

This should come down to tempo. Arkansas wants to play fast, and they’re pretty good when they get that pace to their liking. I think that’s unlikely at Dayton and when the Razorbacks get taken out of their comfort zone, they aren’t particularly good. And that’s as much as anything why this team has continued to scuffle when they journey to enemy territory. I’m on Dayton minus the points tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2015 7:05 PM ESt

(701) BROOKLYN NETS VS (702) ORLANDO MAGIC

Take: (701) BROOKLYN NETS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, December 30, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Brooklyn Nets and the Magic in Orlando. Brooklyn has been undervalued by oddsmakers, on a 17-7 spread run. Wayne Ellington scored 23 of his 26 points in the second half and the Nets rallied back from a 16-point deficit to stun the Miami Heat 111-105 on Monday night. The Nets are 5-1 ATS on the road and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. With Ellington and Larkin leading the way, the Nets shot 66.7 percent in the third quarter and outscored the Heat 34-19 in the quarter to take a one-point lead. The Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Orlando is 1-1 the last two games, losing at home to Miami as -5 chalk, 108-101. Orlando is in the middle of the pack in the NBA in points scored and the visitors match up well. Play Brooklyn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: WED Celtics -12

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Lakers vs Celtics

5* NBA Free Pick Boston Celtics

The Los Angeles Lakers are off four straight losses, the most recent a 108-98 setback at Charlotte Monday. They're 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and I don't like their chances of making it a close game when visiting a surging Boston Celtics team Wednesday night. Boston is off four consecutive wins, covering the spread each time, while holding each of its opponents during the winning streak to less than 100 points scored. Los Angeles has averaged 90.8 ppg during its current slide, and anything but a huge Celtics win here would be very surprising.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Adams

Wisconsin vs USC

Bonus Play USC

At first glance it looks as though the Wisconsin Badgers went on a really nice run to end the season, finishing victorious in 6 of their last 7 regular season games. Look a little deeper though, and you’ll find that the Badgers strength of schedule was extremely weak. They didn’t have to play Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State, and when they were asked to step up in class, the Badgers were beat down. They lost to Alabama (no shocker there) and Iowa to name a few.

Wisconsin didn’t run the ball as much as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent years, switching to a more balanced attack. Throwing the football more is only a negative for this unit, as quarterback Joel Stave is not good at all. In fact, he threw more interceptions than touchdown passes this year.

Despite all of the turmoil that USC had to endure this season, including losing their head coach midway through the campaign, USC still managed to win 8 games in what is a much improved PAC-12 conference this year. The Trojans strength of schedule is obviously much tougher, and looking at the personnel they should have the advantage at almost every position. The Trojans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against the Big 10. We’ll look for that trend to continue here. Take USC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Louisville vs Texas A&M

5* Bonus Play on Louisville -4.5

We don't really like either of these two teams, with the Cardinals having no wins against what we would consider to be "good" opponents, and Texas A&M not having a solid second half of the season. Aggies certainly have the better overall body of work when compared to Louisville, however they are dealing with a mess internally as each of their top two quarterbacks have opted to transfer away from the program and won't play in this game.

That gives the edge to Louisville, who at the very least will have some stability. With both Texas A&M quarterbacks leaving, we're not sure how the rest of the roster is feeling, but we don't believe they'll be properly motivated to play well this Wednesday. Cardinals are more of a rushing team this season and A&M's rush defense has been pretty bad - especially in the second half of the season. Louisville does enough on the ground to beat an unmotivated Aggies side! 5* Bonus Play on Louisville.