Dr. Bob sports
**Nebraska (-1) 21 Arizona 13 Nebraska is the best defensive team in the nation and they should be able to win this game on the strength of that unit. The Cornhuskers defense played pretty well the first couple of games, but that unit really became a dominant one with LB Phillip Dillard starting playing in week 3. Dillard wasn't even starting until later in the year, but he led the team in tackles per game and had 11 tackles for loss. With Dillard contributing along with the nation's top defensive player Ndamukong Suh (23 tackles for loss and 11 passes defended as a defensive tackle!), Jared Crick (9.5 sacks and 15 total TFL), and Barry Turner (16 TFL) the Huskers simply dominated. In those last 11 games the Huskers yielded just 3.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.
Arizona's spread attack is very similar to the one that Texas Tech employs and people will cite the 31 points that the Red Raiders scored against Nebraska back in October. However, Texas Tech only gained 259 total yards at a modest 4.5 yppl in that game and were helped by an 82 yard fumble return touchdown and a +2 in turnover margin. Arizona has a pretty good offense, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but Nebraska still has a huge advantage with their defense and the Huskers have shut down much better offensive units than the Wildcats possess. My math model forecasts just 4.2 yppl for Arizona in this game, so scoring will be difficult for the Wildcats.
Unfortunately for Nebraska, their offense went from being pretty good to being dismal over the second half of the season. The Cornhuskers were only 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but quarterback Zac Lee ran up his passing stats against bad defensive teams while struggling mightily against good defensive teams. I would rate the Huskers' offense at 0.6 yppl worse than average when I take out the early season games against bad defensive teams. Arizona's defense is 0.7 yppl better than average, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defense, and my math model (after making the negative adjustment to Nebraska's offense) projects just 4.4 yppl for Nebraska in this game.
Nebraska's other advantage, besides their great defense, is their outstanding special teams, which rank among the best in the nation. My math model favors Nebraska by 3 1/2 points in this game even after significantly downgrading their offense and the Cornhuskers apply to a very good 71-28-2 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator while Arizona applies to a negative 3-22 ATS bowl game angle. I'll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better. I'll also lean with Under 38 points or higher
