ushups:StatSystems Sports Bowl Report, Wednesday 12/29/10
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••• SIDELINE SHUFFLE! •••
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A confusing season for Maryland HC Ralph Friedgen as his career with the Terrapins, will conclude in this game. After turning the program from 2-10 last year to 8-4 and a bowl this year, Friedgen resigned but will coach this last game. Friedgen had his detractors along the way and did things his way all the time, so it’s not hard to see why the two parties will go their separate ways. But this is a coach who took Maryland to a BCS game, territory it’s not familiar with.
He won a lot of games, put a lot of players in the pros and one would have to think that this final group will play hard for him one final time. It will also help that East Carolina is not one of your better defensive bowl teams out there. Maryland should be able to move the ball up and down the field on these Pirates. The only question then would be this: Are the Terrapins strong enough to carry Big Ralph on their shoulders!
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*** EAGLE BANK BOWL ***
E CAROLINA (6-6) VS. MARYLAND (8-4)
RFK Stadium - Washington, DC
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. EDT Line: Maryland -7.5 O/U 67.5
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The Maryland Terrapins will make the short trip to RFK Stadium in the nation's capital to take on the East Carolina Pirates in the 2010 Military Bowl. Maryland is making its seventh bowl appearance in the last 10 years under Ralph Friedgen, the reigning ACC Coach of the Year. However, it will be the last Friedgen coaches with the team, as it was announced earlier this month that the final year of his contract will be bought out and he will not be returning to as head coach in 2011. The Terps have won four of their last five bowl games, and they figure to have plenty of fan support in the house at nearby RFK Stadium. "We are looking forward to playing in another bowl game," Friedgen said. "Our kids have worked really hard this season and it's a tribute to them that we've reached the postseason again. We hope to represent the ACC well in the Military Bowl."
East Carolina will be making its fifth straight bowl appearance, and the Pirates own an 8-8 record all-time in the postseason. They lost to ACC foes Virginia Tech and North Carolina on the road earlier this season, before topping NC State in overtime on October 16th. ECU sputtered down the stretch, dropping four of its final five games after a 5-2 start. "Preparation is the biggest thing right now," ECU first-year head coach Ruffin McNeill said at the Military Bowl press conference. "We are dealing with finals and traveling. It's in the backyard of the Terrapin fans. For us, this is a ride up I-95." Maryland finished 5-3 in the ACC, while ECU also had a 5-3 league mark in Conference USA. This bout marks the first-ever meeting between these two schools on the gridiron.
The Pirates' strength is their explosive passing attack, which ranks seventh nationally (319.3 ypg). Quarterback Dominique Davis has thrown for 36 touchdowns while completing nearly 65 percent of his passes. His 3,699 passing yards are the fourth-most in the nation. Behind Davis and the passing game, ECU ranks 12th in the nation in scoring offense (38.2 ppg). The Pirates have a pair of top-notch receivers in Lance Lewis and Dwayne Harris, a First Team All-Conference USA pick as both a wideout and punt returner. Lewis has caught 78 passes for 979 yards and a team-high 13 touchdowns, while Harris set single-season school records with 93 catches and 1,055 yards to go along with 10 TDs. Harris ranks seventh nationally with 7.75 receptions per game. In the backfield, Jon Williams has rushed for 846 yards and 10 scores while averaging 5.5 yards per tote.
The defense has been an entirely different story for the Pirates, who have found themselves in shootouts on a weekly basis this season. They rank dead- last out of 120 FBS schools in total defense (478.8 ypg) and also rank 118th in scoring defense (43.4 ppg). Opposing rushing attacks have gashed ECU for 220.8 ypg on the ground, while the Pirates' pass rush has been virtually invisible, ranking 105th nationally in sacks (1.17 per game). The aptly named Dustin Lineback paces the unit with 111 tackles from his spot in the middle of the field, while Bradley Jacobs headlines the secondary with a team-high three interceptions and nine passes defensed. The Pirates have allowed 40-plus points in each of their last five games, including 76 to Navy on November 6th and 62 at Rice two weeks later. With more than a month between the regular- season finale and this bowl game, coach McNeill and his staff will need to go back to the drawing board to try and tighten things up defensively.
Maryland posted a six-win increase from a year ago, marking the second-best turnaround in the FBS this season. However, the Terps suffered a pair of late- season losses to division leaders Florida State and Miami to finish one game shy of qualifying for the ACC title game. Now, they must be careful to avoid any kind of emotional letdown. The Terps' offense has been anything but dynamic, as they rank 85th nationally in total offense (342.4 ypg) and have had virtually no running game (124.9 ypg). However, in their last three wins the Terps have averaged an impressive 47 points against the likes of Wake Forest, Virginia and NC State. Maryland's regular season ended with a 38-31 win over the 21st-ranked Wolfpack, in which Danny O'Brien threw for a career-high 417 yards and four TDs. Torrey Smith caught all four of those touchdowns and finished with 224 yards on 14 catches. Most impressive was the fact that Maryland's offense was able to impose its will against an NC State squad that need a victory to secure a spot in the ACC title game.
After the game, coach Friedgen spoke glowingly about his signal-caller. "I was really impressed with the poise and accuracy which (O'Brien) had," Friedgen said. "It was one of the better performances I've seen by a quarterback. I was very impressed with him." On the season, O'Brien has completed only 56.8 percent of his passes while averaging a rather ordinary 188.1 passing yards per tilt. However, he has thrown 21 touchdowns against only six interceptions, and if he can build off his last performance, it would certainly be a huge boost for the Terps' chances. Smith has caught 65 passes for 1,045 yards and 12 TDs, and he'll no doubt be eager to work his magic against ECU's leaky secondary.
Maryland's Tony Logan ranks third in the nation in punt return average (18.8) and has returned two for touchdowns this season. His abilities in the return game have been a major factor in the field position game for Maryland. Defensively, the Terps match up well with ECU's vaunted passing attack, as they rank ninth nationally in pass efficiency defense. Five different players have notched multiple interceptions, led by Adrian Moten's four picks and 10 passes defensed. Senior linebacker Alex Wujciak has a team-high 112 tackles, while defensive tackle Joe Vellano leads the way with five sacks. In their most recent outing, the Terps yielded 32 first downs and 434 total yards to NC State, but O'Brien and Smith were able to atone for that. Despite allowing the yards to pile up, the defense did manage four sacks and three forced fumbles for the game. Antwine Perez led the way with 11 tackles, a forced fumble and fumble recovery in the win.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Apparently, ACC Coach of the Year is an award in name only. Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen, this year’s recipient, was shockingly told this week that he would not return for season Number 11, the last on his contract. Athletic director Kevin Anderson announced Monday that Friedgen would receive a $2 million buyout, a decision that was triggered when James Franklin left for Vanderbilt earlier this month. However, the bombshell decision has caused little movement on the number for today’s game, currently Maryland -7.5 after opening at -8. But you know what? We were all set to go against Big Ralphie (who WILL be on the sideline this afternoon) before his head landed on the chopping block. Led by ACC Rookie of the Year, QB Danny O’Brien, the 8-4 Terps must be profoundly disappointed that their season-ending win over NC State failed to land them in a mid-tier, warm weather bowl. Instead, Maryland will be playing its bowl game a subway ride away from the College Park campus.
They also show up as a squad that won just two games in 2009 and now finds themselves laying a TD with a team that allows more yards than they gain – a scenario that will never attract our attention as investors. Yes, Mary may have fought its way to a 4-1 SU and ATS mark in its last five bowls but our database warns us that bowl favorites that won 3 or less games the previous year are just 7-19 ATS in postseason play. Additional cause for concern comes with the Terps’ sloppy mark as chalk against nonlosing teams: 1-10 ATS as favorites versus .500 or greater opposition. ECU doesn’t look like much of a bargain, losing four of its final five games as the defense faltered, but the Pirates should be ready to set sail on a voyage of redemption here. Amazingly, 6-6 bowl dogs are 18-9 ATS, including 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, and CUSA squads have fashioned a superb 11-3 ATS record as dogs of 7 or more points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Maryland by 11; O/U 72
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Maryland -13
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Maryland -9.53
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 35.1, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 35.6, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 36-15 UNDER (+19.5 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 23.0, OPPONENT 23.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 25-6 UNDER (+18.4 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 24.2, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 21-5 UNDER (+15.5 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 25.0, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 9-27 against the 1rst half line (-20.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 10.9, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--MARYLAND is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MARYLAND 9.3, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--E CAROLINA is 7-1 against the 1rst half line (+5.9 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was E CAROLINA 18.5, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 37-20 UNDER (+15.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 11.5, OPPONENT 12.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) the 1rst half total after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 12.0, OPPONENT 13.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (E CAROLINA) - after allowing 42 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game.
(51-21 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 61.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21.3, Opponent 36.3 (Total points scored = 57.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-15).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-23).
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*** TEXAS BOWL ***
ILLINOIS (6-6) VS. BAYLOR (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX
Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. EDT Line: Baylor -1 O/U 62
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The Illinois Fighting Illini and Baylor Bears have made it back to the postseason, as they are set to square off in the fifth annual Texas Bowl at Reliant Stadium. This will be just the second bowl game Illinois has played since 2002, with the most recent being a 49-17 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl following the 2007-08 season. The Fighting Illini had an up-and-down season, winning consecutive games only once and finishing the regular season with a 6-6 record. Illinois is known for having a widespread alumni base, but Baylor is playing within a three-hour drive of its campus.
"Our guys," Illinois head coach Ron Zook said at the Texas Bowl press conference, "they like being the underdog, they like being the opponent, they like to be in the visitors' (locker room). We're going to really find out what that means now because I know that we're kind of in hostile territory. But we are excited." On the other sideline, Baylor is going bowling for the first time since 1994.
"It's been 16 years since we've been in a bowl game and our people are pumped," Baylor head coach Art Briles said, "and rightfully so, because when you've looked on from the outside for a long time and you finally get a chance to step in the door, it's a good feeling." Still, the Bears faded down the stretch, dropping each of their final three games after a 7-2 start. They haven't had much success against Big Ten teams, posting a 2-9-1 mark all-time. Baylor won the only previous meeting between these two schools, a 34-19 decision back in 1976. In last year's Texas Bowl, Navy thumped Missouri 35-13.
Illinois' offense is predicated on the running game, as the team enters this contest ranked 13th nationally in rushing with 242.3 yards per game. Against Northwestern in the Big Ten finale at Wrigley Field last month, Mikel Leshoure ran for a school-record 330 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 48-27 win. His 330 yards were also a single-game high in the nation this season, as the Illini rumbled for 519 rushing yards combined.
On the season, Leshoure has averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game and has scored 17 touchdowns. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Illinois offense. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is also a threat with his legs, as he ranks second on the team with 815 rushing yards (67.9 ypg) to go along with four TDs. In the passing game, Scheelhaase averages just 131.9 yards per game, though he has thrown 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. A.J. Jenkins heads up the receiving corps with 694 yards and seven TDs on 50 catches.
Defensively, Illinois has proven very tough to run against, ranking 29th nationally and fourth in the Big Ten with 131.3 rushing yards per game allowed. Overall, the team ranks 38th in the country in total defense (344.2 ypg) and 53rd in scoring defense (24.2 ppg). The unit started to leak a bit down the stretch, allowing an average of nearly 40 points over its final four games, three of which were losses. Junior linebacker Martez Wilson is a wrecking ball, having notched a team-high 105 tackles, which also ranks third in the conference. Wilson also leads the team with four sacks and three forced fumbles this year. Junior defensive back Trulon Henry has a team-best three interceptions under his belt in his first year at Illinois since transferring from junior college.
Baylor's offense is capable of picking up yardage in huge chunks, as the Bears rank No. 12 in the nation in total offense (478.5 ypg). They have a potent air-ground combo to keep defenses off balance in quarterback Robert Griffin and running back Jay Finley. Griffin is completing 66.3 percent of his passes on the year and has thrown 21 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He averages 266.2 passing yards per game and has also been an asset on the ground with eight rushing touchdowns and a shade under 50 rushing yards per game.
Finley averages 6.3 yards per carry and 96.2 yards per game on the ground, and he has scored 11 times. Kendall Wright paces the receiving corps with 66 catches for 825 yards and six TDs. Defensive lapses forced the Bears into catchup mode during their final three games, but when they are balanced, their offense has proven hard to stop. Griffin tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions in the regular-season finale against Oklahoma, which really took the Bears out of their rhythm.
When asked to evaluate Illinois, coach Briles spoke about the importance of slowing the Illini ground game. "They're a dangerous football team, very dangerous," Briles said. "They're third in the nation in time of possession. That tells you something there. It means they're making first downs and running the football. It's a big concern from us on both sides of the ball, actually."
Similar to how Illinois struggled down the stretch, Baylor's defense yielded an average of 50 ppg during that three-game skid to close out the regular season. With plenty of time to prepare for this matchup, coach Briles is hoping his defense can rediscover its early-season swagger. In their first four victories of the season, the Bears had allowed an average of 7.25 ppg. But once they got into their Big 12 schedule, the Bears had trouble stopping opponents. Senior safety Byron Landor ranked fourth in the conference with 115 tackles, while defensive end Tevin Elliott posted a team-high five sacks and nine tackles for loss.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Baylor QB Robert Griffin III and company may have had their long-awaited breakout season in 2010 but the Bears have been bad news in games versus fellow bowlers this year, stumbling to a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark. Enter Illinois from the much-maligned Big Ten – a conference that’s more than held its own when facing off with teams from the Big 12. Big Ten bowlers are a respectable 15-8 ATS versus Big 12 foes of late and Big 12 bowlers are just 5-12 ATS as favorites versus Big Ten opponents. The Fighting Illini have not advanced to postseason play since their 49-17 thumping at the hands of USC in the ’07 Rose Bowl and, quite frankly, didn’t expect to make it back this year following the departure of QB Juice Williams. Surprisingly, however, this year’s edition actually improved by 8 PPG since Williams was squeezed out of the picture.
The defense also played better in 2010, allowing 59 YPG less while holding three bowlers to season-low yardage. Both squads arrive off season-ending swoons: Baylor lost its final three games while 6-6 Illinois shows up as losers in three of its last four contests. But even though today’s Houston venue is just a three-hour drive from Waco, bowl virgin favorites that won four or less games the previous year are a money-burning 6-16 ATS. Baylor head coach Art Briles owns a nifty 8-2-2 ATS log as chalk off BB SU and ATS losses but Baylor has had little success against the Big Ten, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. Briles’ opponent today, Ron Zook, barely retained his job this season but the addition of six new assistant coaches seems to have paid dividends. Zook boasts a solid 7-3 ATS mark as a dog of 3 points or less and his Illini follow suit with a 4-1 ATS record as bowlers versus less than .666 foes.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Baylor by 1; O/U 64
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Illinois -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Illinois -5.81
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 19.0, OPPONENT 36.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--BAYLOR is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 17.8, OPPONENT 36.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was BAYLOR 35.4, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--ILLINOIS is 30-12 OVER (+16.6 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 25.7, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 25-42 against the 1rst half line (-21.2 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 7.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BAYLOR is 15-30 against the 1rst half line (-18.0 Units) off a home loss against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 6.5, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 15.6, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 14.7, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--ILLINOIS is 30-11 OVER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 14.6, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (BAYLOR) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BAYLOR) - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (28-34 PPG).
(32-9 since 1992.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 58.8
The average score in these games was: Team 34.3, Opponent 32.9 (Total points scored = 67.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (47.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
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*** ALAMO BOWL ***
ARIZONA (7-5) VS. OKLAHOMA ST (10-2)
Alamodome - San Antonio, TX
Kickoff: 9:15 p.m. EDT Line: Okl. St -5 O/U 66
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A pair of explosive offenses will be on display in San Antonio when the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Arizona Wildcats face off in the 18th installment of the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma State finished the regular season with an outstanding 10-2 record, but managed to finish in a three-way tie atop the Big 12 South at 6-2 and lost out on a chance to play for the Big 12 Championship by way of a tiebreaker through the BCS standings. The Cowboys controlled their own destiny heading into the regular-season finale against bitter rival Oklahoma but came out on the short end of a 47-41 final in a Bedlam Battle classic in Stillwater November 27th.
The Cowboys had the nation's No. 1 ranked offense this season, averaging an eye-popping 537.6 yards per game, and boast the country's top-ranked passing offense as well. OSU's offense set single-season school records for points (539), total offensive yards (6,451), passing yards (4,256) and touchdown passes (34) in 2010. Oklahoma State's other loss came to Nebraska back on October 23 in another shootout, losing 51-41 in Stillwater. This will be the Cowboys' third appearance in the Alamo Bowl having lost both previous matchups with Ohio State in 2004 and to Purdue in 1997. OSU has also lost in its last two bowl appearances overall. Big 12 Coach of the Year Mike Gundy saw his Cowboys beaten by Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl at the end of last season and Oregon in the 2008 Holiday Bowl. Oklahoma State's overall bowl record stands at 12-8.
Arizona will be making its third straight bowl appearance under head coach Mike Stoops after a 7-5 regular season. The Wildcats were ranked 13th in the nation following an impressive 7-1 start to the year before a deflating 42-17 loss to then No. 10 Stanford on November 6th triggered a four-game losing streak to end their schedule. The 'Cats wound up 4-5 in the Pac-10 standings, tied for fifth place. The regular season ended on an especially heart-breaking note, falling to rival Arizona State in Tucson when Alex Zendejas' extra point was blocked in double overtime to hand the Sun Devils a 30-29 win. Arizona was blanked in a 33-0 shellacking by Nebraska in last year's Holiday Bowl and will be making its first-ever appearance at the Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats' overall bowl record stands at 6-8-1.
This will be the first meeting between Oklahoma State and Arizona on the gridiron since 1942. The all-time series is even at 3-3 with Arizona having won three of the last four games. The matchup will also serve as a preview to a home-and-home series between the two schools starting in Stillwater next season. This is the first year the Alamo Bowl will feature both the Pac-10 and Big 12 Conferences. For the past 15 years, the game has pitted the Big 12 against Big Ten competition. "It's great to be the first league team to play in this first year of the new Alamo Bowl affiliation with the conference. Our players are excited to be playing in an outstanding bowl against a quality opponent like Oklahoma State," Stoops said in anticipation of the matchup.
At the head of OSU's offensive juggernaut is junior quarterback Brandon Weeden and 2010 Biletnikoff Award winner and unanimous All-American sophomore Justin Blackmon. Blackmon caught 102 passes for 1,665 yards and 18 touchdowns in just 11 games en route to being named the nation's top wide receiver. The Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year also added a pair of scores with a 69-yard run and a blocked punt return and ranked first in the country in receiving yards per game (151.36), receptions per game (9.27) and finished ninth in all- purpose yards per game (159). Blackmon tied the NCAA record with his 11th consecutive game of at least 100 receiving yards and a score versus Oklahoma and needs only eight yards to break Larry Fitzgerald's NCAA record for receiving yards by a sophomore.
Weeden broke OSU's single-season record for passing touchdowns with 32 and became the first Cowboy quarterback to pass for over 4,000 yards in a season (4,037). He completed 67.4 percent of his passes, had 13 interceptions and ended the year with a 105.2 passer rating. In addition to Blackmon, Weeden developed a nice rapport with junior wideout Josh Cooper, who caught 61 passes for 683 yards and five touchdowns. "I think before the year started, we knew we had a chance to be special. We knew we had guys that could make some plays, but to be at this magnitude, maybe not. But we knew we had a chance to be here. We fulfilled our expectation, but we also exceeded it as well," Weeden said of OSU's chance to post an 11-win season.
Not to be forgotten is an effective ground game led by senior Kendall Hunter, who racked up 1,516 rushing yards to lead the Big 12 and tied for the conference lead with 16 touchdowns this season. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 126.3 yards per game on 261 totes. Dan Bailey, the 2010 Lou Groza Award winner as the nation's top placekicker, could be the x-factor in a tight game. Oklahoma State's all-time leading scorer was 24-for-28 on field goals this year including a pair of strikes from 52 yards.
The category where the Cowboys lack when compared to Arizona is defense. The squad finished ranked 91st in the nation and eighth in their own conference. OSU's moniker is usually to outscore the opponent, not stop them, as was evidenced by its giving up an average of 412.8 yards and 27.8 points per game. A startling number is the 110 fourth-quarter points allowed this season, although, the Cowboys do feature a handful of players capable of making a difference. Senior cornerback Andrew McGee had five of the team's 16 interceptions, a total which had OSU tied for 21st in the country. Standout senior linebacker Orie Lemon led the team with 119 tackles. His nine tackles for a loss also paced the Cowboys and 93 of his stops were of the solo variety. Linebacker Shaun Lewis was named the Big 12 Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year for 2010, racking up 55 tackles, including seven for a loss, three interceptions, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Junior defensive end Jamie Blatnick led OSU with five sacks on the year.
Like Oklahoma State, Arizona is led by a high-powered passing attack that finished ninth in the nation and first in Pac-10 play and will counter with its own 1-2 punch in juniors quarterback Nick Foles and wide receiver Juron Criner. Foles completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,911 yards with 19 touchdowns against seven interceptions in just 10 games this season. The passing game averaged 310 yards per game with a bulk of that yardage credited to the first-team All-Pac 10 selection and second-team All-American Criner, who totaled 1,186 yards and 10 touchdowns on 73 receptions while averaging 16.2 yards per reception. Criner's yardage and reception totals were both tops in the conference.
Fellow juniors David Douglas and David Roberts provide depth as secondary options in the 'Cats air attack. Douglas was second on the team with 46 catches and five touchdowns while racking up 424 yards. Roberts finished second to Criner with 468 receiving yards on 42 grabs with a pair of scores. The Wildcats ended the regular season with the nation's 24th-ranked offense overall, and the rushing game features a pair of capable backs in junior Keola Antolin and senior Nic Grigsby. While neither player stood out in terms of yardage, the two combined for 15 of the team's 20 rushing scores. Antolin led the team with 667 rushing yards and his 4.7 yards per carry, while Grigsby averaged an equally solid 4.6 yards per tote with 474 yards and a team-high eight scores.
A strong defensive unit for Arizona was overshadowed by its disappointing end to the year. It ranked 36th in the nation in total defense and 32nd in scoring defense, allowing 21.6 points per game. Junior linebacker Paul Vassallo was the team's leading tackler and finished seventh in the Pac-10 with 94 stops, 73 of those solo. Senior defensive end Ricky Elmore gave opposing quarterbacks fits all season with his 11 sacks to lead the Pac-10. His 13 tackles for a loss also paced the Wildcats and was good for fourth in league play. Arizona ended second in the conference with 33 sacks with fellow senior end Brooks Reed getting 6 1/2 of those and standout redshirt freshman tackle Justin Washington six. Washington was second on the team with 10 1/2 tackles for a loss.
"I think they do a good job of putting pressure on the quarterback. The quarterback is a very good player and the receiver and two running backs make some plays. They played very well the first two or three months of the season and didn't play as well as they wanted to in the last month," Gundy said of matching up with the Wildcats.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Oklahoma State swaggers into San Antonio boasting a nation’s-best offense (538 YPG) high on star power. The 10-2 Cowboys are led by QB Brandon Weeden, the first in team history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year in WR Justin Blackmon and the league’s leading rusher in RB Kendall Hunter. But even with such a star-studded cast, Mike Gundy’s Pokes once again failed to reach their season goal when another loss to rival Oklahoma kept them out of the Big 12 Championship game and a possible BCS Bowl appearance. Still, an OSU team averaging 45 PPG and 538 yards per outing would seem like the obvious pick over an Arizona bunch that wilted like a lost traveler in the desert at season’s end, losing its final four games, including a 1-point defeat to hated Arizona State on a blocked PAT.
Obvious, that is, until you get a closer look at the Oklahoma State defense. Not only did the Cowboys stop unit get ripped for 413 YPG, in the showdown they wanted the most against the Sooners, OSU’s ‘D’ was stampeded for a whopping 588 total yards, including 468 passing, numbers that should have Arizona QB Nick Foles licking his chops. Further ‘chop-licking’ comes courtesy of our powerful database that tells us Arizona stands 11-2 ATS as an underdog off a loss and coach Stoops is 4-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss. No such luck for the chalk: Big 12 bowl favorites of 6 or more points are 0-6 ATS against a Pac-10 opponent and the favorite in OSU bowl games is a jaw-dropping 2-13 ATS. Wait, it gets worse. Cowboys’ coach Gundy is 0-5 SU and ATS versus a greater than .500 foe off a SU favorite loss and Oklahoma State is just 1-5 SU and ATS as a bowler with a winning record playing off a loss. Note: Arizona’s five losses this season came by just 6 points combined!
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma St by 4; O/U 64.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma St -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma St -3.02
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--OKLAHOMA ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.2, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 47.0, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 41.3, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
----------------------------------------------------
--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-5 OVER (+17.8 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 59% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 38.7, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-7 OVER (+16.2 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.7, OPPONENT 28.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ARIZONA is 24-44 against the 1rst half line (-24.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.1, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ARIZONA is 28-46 against the 1rst half line (-22.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.5, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--OKLAHOMA ST is 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 16.1, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 13.9, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (ARIZONA) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in minor bowl games (played in December).
(34-10 since 1992.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 66.1
The average score in these games was: Team 36.5, Opponent 36.5 (Total points scored = 73)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (40.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
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Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 69-25-4, (73.4%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-Two of the last Forty-Six, and in Seventy-Six of the last Eighty-One Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Roll with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Record (40-13-2, 75.5%) in CFB Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (Tulsa +10.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System' - PLAY ON: A Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent.
This Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational System has a record of 17-0 ATS, 100% (with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane forcing six turnovers to upend #24 Hawaii, 62-35, in the Hawaii Bowl) covering the spread by an average of 27.4 points per game since 1999. The straight up record for this system is a solid 14-3 winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.
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STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/29
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• SIDELINE SHUFFLE! •••
-----------------------------------
A confusing season for Maryland HC Ralph Friedgen as his career with the Terrapins, will conclude in this game. After turning the program from 2-10 last year to 8-4 and a bowl this year, Friedgen resigned but will coach this last game. Friedgen had his detractors along the way and did things his way all the time, so it’s not hard to see why the two parties will go their separate ways. But this is a coach who took Maryland to a BCS game, territory it’s not familiar with.
He won a lot of games, put a lot of players in the pros and one would have to think that this final group will play hard for him one final time. It will also help that East Carolina is not one of your better defensive bowl teams out there. Maryland should be able to move the ball up and down the field on these Pirates. The only question then would be this: Are the Terrapins strong enough to carry Big Ralph on their shoulders!
Make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season! Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day!
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*** EAGLE BANK BOWL ***
E CAROLINA (6-6) VS. MARYLAND (8-4)
RFK Stadium - Washington, DC
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. EDT Line: Maryland -7.5 O/U 67.5
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The Maryland Terrapins will make the short trip to RFK Stadium in the nation's capital to take on the East Carolina Pirates in the 2010 Military Bowl. Maryland is making its seventh bowl appearance in the last 10 years under Ralph Friedgen, the reigning ACC Coach of the Year. However, it will be the last Friedgen coaches with the team, as it was announced earlier this month that the final year of his contract will be bought out and he will not be returning to as head coach in 2011. The Terps have won four of their last five bowl games, and they figure to have plenty of fan support in the house at nearby RFK Stadium. "We are looking forward to playing in another bowl game," Friedgen said. "Our kids have worked really hard this season and it's a tribute to them that we've reached the postseason again. We hope to represent the ACC well in the Military Bowl."
East Carolina will be making its fifth straight bowl appearance, and the Pirates own an 8-8 record all-time in the postseason. They lost to ACC foes Virginia Tech and North Carolina on the road earlier this season, before topping NC State in overtime on October 16th. ECU sputtered down the stretch, dropping four of its final five games after a 5-2 start. "Preparation is the biggest thing right now," ECU first-year head coach Ruffin McNeill said at the Military Bowl press conference. "We are dealing with finals and traveling. It's in the backyard of the Terrapin fans. For us, this is a ride up I-95." Maryland finished 5-3 in the ACC, while ECU also had a 5-3 league mark in Conference USA. This bout marks the first-ever meeting between these two schools on the gridiron.
The Pirates' strength is their explosive passing attack, which ranks seventh nationally (319.3 ypg). Quarterback Dominique Davis has thrown for 36 touchdowns while completing nearly 65 percent of his passes. His 3,699 passing yards are the fourth-most in the nation. Behind Davis and the passing game, ECU ranks 12th in the nation in scoring offense (38.2 ppg). The Pirates have a pair of top-notch receivers in Lance Lewis and Dwayne Harris, a First Team All-Conference USA pick as both a wideout and punt returner. Lewis has caught 78 passes for 979 yards and a team-high 13 touchdowns, while Harris set single-season school records with 93 catches and 1,055 yards to go along with 10 TDs. Harris ranks seventh nationally with 7.75 receptions per game. In the backfield, Jon Williams has rushed for 846 yards and 10 scores while averaging 5.5 yards per tote.
The defense has been an entirely different story for the Pirates, who have found themselves in shootouts on a weekly basis this season. They rank dead- last out of 120 FBS schools in total defense (478.8 ypg) and also rank 118th in scoring defense (43.4 ppg). Opposing rushing attacks have gashed ECU for 220.8 ypg on the ground, while the Pirates' pass rush has been virtually invisible, ranking 105th nationally in sacks (1.17 per game). The aptly named Dustin Lineback paces the unit with 111 tackles from his spot in the middle of the field, while Bradley Jacobs headlines the secondary with a team-high three interceptions and nine passes defensed. The Pirates have allowed 40-plus points in each of their last five games, including 76 to Navy on November 6th and 62 at Rice two weeks later. With more than a month between the regular- season finale and this bowl game, coach McNeill and his staff will need to go back to the drawing board to try and tighten things up defensively.
Maryland posted a six-win increase from a year ago, marking the second-best turnaround in the FBS this season. However, the Terps suffered a pair of late- season losses to division leaders Florida State and Miami to finish one game shy of qualifying for the ACC title game. Now, they must be careful to avoid any kind of emotional letdown. The Terps' offense has been anything but dynamic, as they rank 85th nationally in total offense (342.4 ypg) and have had virtually no running game (124.9 ypg). However, in their last three wins the Terps have averaged an impressive 47 points against the likes of Wake Forest, Virginia and NC State. Maryland's regular season ended with a 38-31 win over the 21st-ranked Wolfpack, in which Danny O'Brien threw for a career-high 417 yards and four TDs. Torrey Smith caught all four of those touchdowns and finished with 224 yards on 14 catches. Most impressive was the fact that Maryland's offense was able to impose its will against an NC State squad that need a victory to secure a spot in the ACC title game.
After the game, coach Friedgen spoke glowingly about his signal-caller. "I was really impressed with the poise and accuracy which (O'Brien) had," Friedgen said. "It was one of the better performances I've seen by a quarterback. I was very impressed with him." On the season, O'Brien has completed only 56.8 percent of his passes while averaging a rather ordinary 188.1 passing yards per tilt. However, he has thrown 21 touchdowns against only six interceptions, and if he can build off his last performance, it would certainly be a huge boost for the Terps' chances. Smith has caught 65 passes for 1,045 yards and 12 TDs, and he'll no doubt be eager to work his magic against ECU's leaky secondary.
Maryland's Tony Logan ranks third in the nation in punt return average (18.8) and has returned two for touchdowns this season. His abilities in the return game have been a major factor in the field position game for Maryland. Defensively, the Terps match up well with ECU's vaunted passing attack, as they rank ninth nationally in pass efficiency defense. Five different players have notched multiple interceptions, led by Adrian Moten's four picks and 10 passes defensed. Senior linebacker Alex Wujciak has a team-high 112 tackles, while defensive tackle Joe Vellano leads the way with five sacks. In their most recent outing, the Terps yielded 32 first downs and 434 total yards to NC State, but O'Brien and Smith were able to atone for that. Despite allowing the yards to pile up, the defense did manage four sacks and three forced fumbles for the game. Antwine Perez led the way with 11 tackles, a forced fumble and fumble recovery in the win.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Apparently, ACC Coach of the Year is an award in name only. Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen, this year’s recipient, was shockingly told this week that he would not return for season Number 11, the last on his contract. Athletic director Kevin Anderson announced Monday that Friedgen would receive a $2 million buyout, a decision that was triggered when James Franklin left for Vanderbilt earlier this month. However, the bombshell decision has caused little movement on the number for today’s game, currently Maryland -7.5 after opening at -8. But you know what? We were all set to go against Big Ralphie (who WILL be on the sideline this afternoon) before his head landed on the chopping block. Led by ACC Rookie of the Year, QB Danny O’Brien, the 8-4 Terps must be profoundly disappointed that their season-ending win over NC State failed to land them in a mid-tier, warm weather bowl. Instead, Maryland will be playing its bowl game a subway ride away from the College Park campus.
They also show up as a squad that won just two games in 2009 and now finds themselves laying a TD with a team that allows more yards than they gain – a scenario that will never attract our attention as investors. Yes, Mary may have fought its way to a 4-1 SU and ATS mark in its last five bowls but our database warns us that bowl favorites that won 3 or less games the previous year are just 7-19 ATS in postseason play. Additional cause for concern comes with the Terps’ sloppy mark as chalk against nonlosing teams: 1-10 ATS as favorites versus .500 or greater opposition. ECU doesn’t look like much of a bargain, losing four of its final five games as the defense faltered, but the Pirates should be ready to set sail on a voyage of redemption here. Amazingly, 6-6 bowl dogs are 18-9 ATS, including 7-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, and CUSA squads have fashioned a superb 11-3 ATS record as dogs of 7 or more points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Maryland by 11; O/U 72
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Maryland -13
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Maryland -9.53
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 35.1, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 35.6, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 36-15 UNDER (+19.5 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 23.0, OPPONENT 23.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 25-6 UNDER (+18.4 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 24.2, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 21-5 UNDER (+15.5 Units) after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 25.0, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 9-27 against the 1rst half line (-20.7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 10.9, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--MARYLAND is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MARYLAND 9.3, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--E CAROLINA is 7-1 against the 1rst half line (+5.9 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was E CAROLINA 18.5, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MARYLAND is 37-20 UNDER (+15.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 11.5, OPPONENT 12.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MARYLAND is 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) the 1rst half total after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was MARYLAND 12.0, OPPONENT 13.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (E CAROLINA) - after allowing 42 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game.
(51-21 over the last 10 seasons.) (70.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 61.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21.3, Opponent 36.3 (Total points scored = 57.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (51.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-8).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-10).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-15).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (54-23).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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*** TEXAS BOWL ***
ILLINOIS (6-6) VS. BAYLOR (7-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, TX
Kickoff: 6:00 p.m. EDT Line: Baylor -1 O/U 62
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The Illinois Fighting Illini and Baylor Bears have made it back to the postseason, as they are set to square off in the fifth annual Texas Bowl at Reliant Stadium. This will be just the second bowl game Illinois has played since 2002, with the most recent being a 49-17 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl following the 2007-08 season. The Fighting Illini had an up-and-down season, winning consecutive games only once and finishing the regular season with a 6-6 record. Illinois is known for having a widespread alumni base, but Baylor is playing within a three-hour drive of its campus.
"Our guys," Illinois head coach Ron Zook said at the Texas Bowl press conference, "they like being the underdog, they like being the opponent, they like to be in the visitors' (locker room). We're going to really find out what that means now because I know that we're kind of in hostile territory. But we are excited." On the other sideline, Baylor is going bowling for the first time since 1994.
"It's been 16 years since we've been in a bowl game and our people are pumped," Baylor head coach Art Briles said, "and rightfully so, because when you've looked on from the outside for a long time and you finally get a chance to step in the door, it's a good feeling." Still, the Bears faded down the stretch, dropping each of their final three games after a 7-2 start. They haven't had much success against Big Ten teams, posting a 2-9-1 mark all-time. Baylor won the only previous meeting between these two schools, a 34-19 decision back in 1976. In last year's Texas Bowl, Navy thumped Missouri 35-13.
Illinois' offense is predicated on the running game, as the team enters this contest ranked 13th nationally in rushing with 242.3 yards per game. Against Northwestern in the Big Ten finale at Wrigley Field last month, Mikel Leshoure ran for a school-record 330 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 48-27 win. His 330 yards were also a single-game high in the nation this season, as the Illini rumbled for 519 rushing yards combined.
On the season, Leshoure has averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game and has scored 17 touchdowns. He is the straw that stirs the drink for the Illinois offense. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is also a threat with his legs, as he ranks second on the team with 815 rushing yards (67.9 ypg) to go along with four TDs. In the passing game, Scheelhaase averages just 131.9 yards per game, though he has thrown 17 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. A.J. Jenkins heads up the receiving corps with 694 yards and seven TDs on 50 catches.
Defensively, Illinois has proven very tough to run against, ranking 29th nationally and fourth in the Big Ten with 131.3 rushing yards per game allowed. Overall, the team ranks 38th in the country in total defense (344.2 ypg) and 53rd in scoring defense (24.2 ppg). The unit started to leak a bit down the stretch, allowing an average of nearly 40 points over its final four games, three of which were losses. Junior linebacker Martez Wilson is a wrecking ball, having notched a team-high 105 tackles, which also ranks third in the conference. Wilson also leads the team with four sacks and three forced fumbles this year. Junior defensive back Trulon Henry has a team-best three interceptions under his belt in his first year at Illinois since transferring from junior college.
Baylor's offense is capable of picking up yardage in huge chunks, as the Bears rank No. 12 in the nation in total offense (478.5 ypg). They have a potent air-ground combo to keep defenses off balance in quarterback Robert Griffin and running back Jay Finley. Griffin is completing 66.3 percent of his passes on the year and has thrown 21 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He averages 266.2 passing yards per game and has also been an asset on the ground with eight rushing touchdowns and a shade under 50 rushing yards per game.
Finley averages 6.3 yards per carry and 96.2 yards per game on the ground, and he has scored 11 times. Kendall Wright paces the receiving corps with 66 catches for 825 yards and six TDs. Defensive lapses forced the Bears into catchup mode during their final three games, but when they are balanced, their offense has proven hard to stop. Griffin tossed an uncharacteristic two interceptions in the regular-season finale against Oklahoma, which really took the Bears out of their rhythm.
When asked to evaluate Illinois, coach Briles spoke about the importance of slowing the Illini ground game. "They're a dangerous football team, very dangerous," Briles said. "They're third in the nation in time of possession. That tells you something there. It means they're making first downs and running the football. It's a big concern from us on both sides of the ball, actually."
Similar to how Illinois struggled down the stretch, Baylor's defense yielded an average of 50 ppg during that three-game skid to close out the regular season. With plenty of time to prepare for this matchup, coach Briles is hoping his defense can rediscover its early-season swagger. In their first four victories of the season, the Bears had allowed an average of 7.25 ppg. But once they got into their Big 12 schedule, the Bears had trouble stopping opponents. Senior safety Byron Landor ranked fourth in the conference with 115 tackles, while defensive end Tevin Elliott posted a team-high five sacks and nine tackles for loss.
• PREGAME NOTES
-------------------------
Baylor QB Robert Griffin III and company may have had their long-awaited breakout season in 2010 but the Bears have been bad news in games versus fellow bowlers this year, stumbling to a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark. Enter Illinois from the much-maligned Big Ten – a conference that’s more than held its own when facing off with teams from the Big 12. Big Ten bowlers are a respectable 15-8 ATS versus Big 12 foes of late and Big 12 bowlers are just 5-12 ATS as favorites versus Big Ten opponents. The Fighting Illini have not advanced to postseason play since their 49-17 thumping at the hands of USC in the ’07 Rose Bowl and, quite frankly, didn’t expect to make it back this year following the departure of QB Juice Williams. Surprisingly, however, this year’s edition actually improved by 8 PPG since Williams was squeezed out of the picture.
The defense also played better in 2010, allowing 59 YPG less while holding three bowlers to season-low yardage. Both squads arrive off season-ending swoons: Baylor lost its final three games while 6-6 Illinois shows up as losers in three of its last four contests. But even though today’s Houston venue is just a three-hour drive from Waco, bowl virgin favorites that won four or less games the previous year are a money-burning 6-16 ATS. Baylor head coach Art Briles owns a nifty 8-2-2 ATS log as chalk off BB SU and ATS losses but Baylor has had little success against the Big Ten, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. Briles’ opponent today, Ron Zook, barely retained his job this season but the addition of six new assistant coaches seems to have paid dividends. Zook boasts a solid 7-3 ATS mark as a dog of 3 points or less and his Illini follow suit with a 4-1 ATS record as bowlers versus less than .666 foes.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Baylor by 1; O/U 64
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Illinois -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Illinois -5.81
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 19.0, OPPONENT 36.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--BAYLOR is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 17.8, OPPONENT 36.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 7-1 OVER (+5.9 Units) after the first month of the season this season.
The average score was BAYLOR 35.4, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--ILLINOIS is 30-12 OVER (+16.6 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 25.7, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 25-42 against the 1rst half line (-21.2 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 7.5, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BAYLOR is 15-30 against the 1rst half line (-18.0 Units) off a home loss against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was BAYLOR 6.5, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 15.6, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--BAYLOR is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 14.7, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--ILLINOIS is 30-11 OVER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was ILLINOIS 14.6, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (BAYLOR) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BAYLOR) - off 1 or more straight overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (28-34 PPG).
(32-9 since 1992.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 58.8
The average score in these games was: Team 34.3, Opponent 32.9 (Total points scored = 67.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (47.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-8).
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Stan Knows Football and Basketball! Check out the huge winning run “The Man is enjoying and prepare to get all of his football and basketball selections with a discounted monthly or seasonal package.” Do it now and Save Big! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** ALAMO BOWL ***
ARIZONA (7-5) VS. OKLAHOMA ST (10-2)
Alamodome - San Antonio, TX
Kickoff: 9:15 p.m. EDT Line: Okl. St -5 O/U 66
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A pair of explosive offenses will be on display in San Antonio when the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Arizona Wildcats face off in the 18th installment of the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma State finished the regular season with an outstanding 10-2 record, but managed to finish in a three-way tie atop the Big 12 South at 6-2 and lost out on a chance to play for the Big 12 Championship by way of a tiebreaker through the BCS standings. The Cowboys controlled their own destiny heading into the regular-season finale against bitter rival Oklahoma but came out on the short end of a 47-41 final in a Bedlam Battle classic in Stillwater November 27th.
The Cowboys had the nation's No. 1 ranked offense this season, averaging an eye-popping 537.6 yards per game, and boast the country's top-ranked passing offense as well. OSU's offense set single-season school records for points (539), total offensive yards (6,451), passing yards (4,256) and touchdown passes (34) in 2010. Oklahoma State's other loss came to Nebraska back on October 23 in another shootout, losing 51-41 in Stillwater. This will be the Cowboys' third appearance in the Alamo Bowl having lost both previous matchups with Ohio State in 2004 and to Purdue in 1997. OSU has also lost in its last two bowl appearances overall. Big 12 Coach of the Year Mike Gundy saw his Cowboys beaten by Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl at the end of last season and Oregon in the 2008 Holiday Bowl. Oklahoma State's overall bowl record stands at 12-8.
Arizona will be making its third straight bowl appearance under head coach Mike Stoops after a 7-5 regular season. The Wildcats were ranked 13th in the nation following an impressive 7-1 start to the year before a deflating 42-17 loss to then No. 10 Stanford on November 6th triggered a four-game losing streak to end their schedule. The 'Cats wound up 4-5 in the Pac-10 standings, tied for fifth place. The regular season ended on an especially heart-breaking note, falling to rival Arizona State in Tucson when Alex Zendejas' extra point was blocked in double overtime to hand the Sun Devils a 30-29 win. Arizona was blanked in a 33-0 shellacking by Nebraska in last year's Holiday Bowl and will be making its first-ever appearance at the Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats' overall bowl record stands at 6-8-1.
This will be the first meeting between Oklahoma State and Arizona on the gridiron since 1942. The all-time series is even at 3-3 with Arizona having won three of the last four games. The matchup will also serve as a preview to a home-and-home series between the two schools starting in Stillwater next season. This is the first year the Alamo Bowl will feature both the Pac-10 and Big 12 Conferences. For the past 15 years, the game has pitted the Big 12 against Big Ten competition. "It's great to be the first league team to play in this first year of the new Alamo Bowl affiliation with the conference. Our players are excited to be playing in an outstanding bowl against a quality opponent like Oklahoma State," Stoops said in anticipation of the matchup.
At the head of OSU's offensive juggernaut is junior quarterback Brandon Weeden and 2010 Biletnikoff Award winner and unanimous All-American sophomore Justin Blackmon. Blackmon caught 102 passes for 1,665 yards and 18 touchdowns in just 11 games en route to being named the nation's top wide receiver. The Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year also added a pair of scores with a 69-yard run and a blocked punt return and ranked first in the country in receiving yards per game (151.36), receptions per game (9.27) and finished ninth in all- purpose yards per game (159). Blackmon tied the NCAA record with his 11th consecutive game of at least 100 receiving yards and a score versus Oklahoma and needs only eight yards to break Larry Fitzgerald's NCAA record for receiving yards by a sophomore.
Weeden broke OSU's single-season record for passing touchdowns with 32 and became the first Cowboy quarterback to pass for over 4,000 yards in a season (4,037). He completed 67.4 percent of his passes, had 13 interceptions and ended the year with a 105.2 passer rating. In addition to Blackmon, Weeden developed a nice rapport with junior wideout Josh Cooper, who caught 61 passes for 683 yards and five touchdowns. "I think before the year started, we knew we had a chance to be special. We knew we had guys that could make some plays, but to be at this magnitude, maybe not. But we knew we had a chance to be here. We fulfilled our expectation, but we also exceeded it as well," Weeden said of OSU's chance to post an 11-win season.
Not to be forgotten is an effective ground game led by senior Kendall Hunter, who racked up 1,516 rushing yards to lead the Big 12 and tied for the conference lead with 16 touchdowns this season. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 126.3 yards per game on 261 totes. Dan Bailey, the 2010 Lou Groza Award winner as the nation's top placekicker, could be the x-factor in a tight game. Oklahoma State's all-time leading scorer was 24-for-28 on field goals this year including a pair of strikes from 52 yards.
The category where the Cowboys lack when compared to Arizona is defense. The squad finished ranked 91st in the nation and eighth in their own conference. OSU's moniker is usually to outscore the opponent, not stop them, as was evidenced by its giving up an average of 412.8 yards and 27.8 points per game. A startling number is the 110 fourth-quarter points allowed this season, although, the Cowboys do feature a handful of players capable of making a difference. Senior cornerback Andrew McGee had five of the team's 16 interceptions, a total which had OSU tied for 21st in the country. Standout senior linebacker Orie Lemon led the team with 119 tackles. His nine tackles for a loss also paced the Cowboys and 93 of his stops were of the solo variety. Linebacker Shaun Lewis was named the Big 12 Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year for 2010, racking up 55 tackles, including seven for a loss, three interceptions, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Junior defensive end Jamie Blatnick led OSU with five sacks on the year.
Like Oklahoma State, Arizona is led by a high-powered passing attack that finished ninth in the nation and first in Pac-10 play and will counter with its own 1-2 punch in juniors quarterback Nick Foles and wide receiver Juron Criner. Foles completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,911 yards with 19 touchdowns against seven interceptions in just 10 games this season. The passing game averaged 310 yards per game with a bulk of that yardage credited to the first-team All-Pac 10 selection and second-team All-American Criner, who totaled 1,186 yards and 10 touchdowns on 73 receptions while averaging 16.2 yards per reception. Criner's yardage and reception totals were both tops in the conference.
Fellow juniors David Douglas and David Roberts provide depth as secondary options in the 'Cats air attack. Douglas was second on the team with 46 catches and five touchdowns while racking up 424 yards. Roberts finished second to Criner with 468 receiving yards on 42 grabs with a pair of scores. The Wildcats ended the regular season with the nation's 24th-ranked offense overall, and the rushing game features a pair of capable backs in junior Keola Antolin and senior Nic Grigsby. While neither player stood out in terms of yardage, the two combined for 15 of the team's 20 rushing scores. Antolin led the team with 667 rushing yards and his 4.7 yards per carry, while Grigsby averaged an equally solid 4.6 yards per tote with 474 yards and a team-high eight scores.
A strong defensive unit for Arizona was overshadowed by its disappointing end to the year. It ranked 36th in the nation in total defense and 32nd in scoring defense, allowing 21.6 points per game. Junior linebacker Paul Vassallo was the team's leading tackler and finished seventh in the Pac-10 with 94 stops, 73 of those solo. Senior defensive end Ricky Elmore gave opposing quarterbacks fits all season with his 11 sacks to lead the Pac-10. His 13 tackles for a loss also paced the Wildcats and was good for fourth in league play. Arizona ended second in the conference with 33 sacks with fellow senior end Brooks Reed getting 6 1/2 of those and standout redshirt freshman tackle Justin Washington six. Washington was second on the team with 10 1/2 tackles for a loss.
"I think they do a good job of putting pressure on the quarterback. The quarterback is a very good player and the receiver and two running backs make some plays. They played very well the first two or three months of the season and didn't play as well as they wanted to in the last month," Gundy said of matching up with the Wildcats.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Oklahoma State swaggers into San Antonio boasting a nation’s-best offense (538 YPG) high on star power. The 10-2 Cowboys are led by QB Brandon Weeden, the first in team history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year in WR Justin Blackmon and the league’s leading rusher in RB Kendall Hunter. But even with such a star-studded cast, Mike Gundy’s Pokes once again failed to reach their season goal when another loss to rival Oklahoma kept them out of the Big 12 Championship game and a possible BCS Bowl appearance. Still, an OSU team averaging 45 PPG and 538 yards per outing would seem like the obvious pick over an Arizona bunch that wilted like a lost traveler in the desert at season’s end, losing its final four games, including a 1-point defeat to hated Arizona State on a blocked PAT.
Obvious, that is, until you get a closer look at the Oklahoma State defense. Not only did the Cowboys stop unit get ripped for 413 YPG, in the showdown they wanted the most against the Sooners, OSU’s ‘D’ was stampeded for a whopping 588 total yards, including 468 passing, numbers that should have Arizona QB Nick Foles licking his chops. Further ‘chop-licking’ comes courtesy of our powerful database that tells us Arizona stands 11-2 ATS as an underdog off a loss and coach Stoops is 4-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss. No such luck for the chalk: Big 12 bowl favorites of 6 or more points are 0-6 ATS against a Pac-10 opponent and the favorite in OSU bowl games is a jaw-dropping 2-13 ATS. Wait, it gets worse. Cowboys’ coach Gundy is 0-5 SU and ATS versus a greater than .500 foe off a SU favorite loss and Oklahoma State is just 1-5 SU and ATS as a bowler with a winning record playing off a loss. Note: Arizona’s five losses this season came by just 6 points combined!
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Oklahoma St by 4; O/U 64.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma St -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Oklahoma St -3.02
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--OKLAHOMA ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.2, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 47.0, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 41.3, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-5 OVER (+17.8 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 59% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 38.7, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 24-7 OVER (+16.2 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.7, OPPONENT 28.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ARIZONA is 24-44 against the 1rst half line (-24.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.1, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--ARIZONA is 28-46 against the 1rst half line (-22.6 Units) off 1 or more straight overs since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 12.5, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--OKLAHOMA ST is 16-6 OVER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 16.1, OPPONENT 13.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 13.9, OPPONENT 7.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (ARIZONA) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in minor bowl games (played in December).
(34-10 since 1992.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 66.1
The average score in these games was: Team 36.5, Opponent 36.5 (Total points scored = 73)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (40.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
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Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 69-25-4, (73.4%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-Two of the last Forty-Six, and in Seventy-Six of the last Eighty-One Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Roll with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Record (40-13-2, 75.5%) in CFB Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (Tulsa +10.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System' - PLAY ON: A Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent.
This Stat/Systems Sports Super Situational System has a record of 17-0 ATS, 100% (with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane forcing six turnovers to upend #24 Hawaii, 62-35, in the Hawaii Bowl) covering the spread by an average of 27.4 points per game since 1999. The straight up record for this system is a solid 14-3 winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.
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