Wednesday 12/23/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

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Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:08pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,500 Class Rating: 56

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 HARLEE HONEY (ML=2/1)


HARLEE HONEY - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This filly's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. Stanley should have her moving big on the turn. This filly is in excellent condition right now. Finished second in the last race and comes back quickly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 FAST JUSTICE (ML=3/1), #7 MUDDLE (ML=5/1), #1A IRISH CHEER (ML=8/1),

FAST JUSTICE - When scrutinizing today's class figure, she will have to notch a much better speed rating than last race out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. MUDDLE - Never really did much at all last out on December 9th. Hard to wager on in today's event. IRISH CHEER - Usually I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance races in order to back her. She showed not much at all in the last contest.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - HARLEE HONEY - With the highest last speed rating of 60, this filly looks exceptional against these ponies.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #4 HARLEE HONEY to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with 2

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 12/23 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

4,6,9 / 5,7,9 / 5 / 1,2,5 = $27


Best Bet: SOMUCHCOOLERONLINE (10th)

Spot Play: ROSE RUN QUASAR (1st)


Race 1

(9) ROSE RUN QUASAR well bred filly makes her second start back off a long layoff and has room to improve. (3) STUDENT NURSE three-year-old is 0 for her career but has been knocking on the door; threat. (1) MICVICAR gelding gets the best starting post and can hit the ticket if he minds his manners.

Race 2

(1) IMALLEXCITED just missed to a better bunch last out. (4) Q COBRA JET never got into the mile last out but was sharp the start prior. (3) ROCK CENTER faces much weaker and should offer good value.

Race 3

(5) GREEN ACRES trotting mare looks terrible on paper but finds a suspect bunch and owns a decent burst at times. (9) MISS EVA CASH picks up a big driver change and could be closer turning for home. (2) SANDY SOIL mare has room to move forward second start back.

Race 4

(7) STRONG PLAYIN KING popped at a price last start, picks up the top driver, and probably has more to offer. (6) CHICKENWITHABANJO comes into the race off a solid qualifier against a weak bunch; threat. (3) DOUBLESHOTOFCROWN has been improving every week; fires early.

Race 5

(5) JACOB'S GILLY will look to make it four wins in five starts; short price. (3) ERISTER HANOVER will also look to make it four of five but comes into the race off a break. (4) KAPTAIN JON BOY has been second in four straight; use underneath.

Race 6

(5) SOUTHSIDE CHRIS owns a win at this level and finds a weak and inconsistent field. (6) LILLIAN ROAD has just been racing evenly but can hit the ticket at a price with a good setup. (7) CAMMILICIOUS owns multiple wins against similar but needs to find a way into the race; command a price.

Race 7

(1) NEELY DUNN SUPER gets the best post down in class. (5) MYSTICAL BRAT comes into the race off a layoff but does own some ability. (9) MR GOODTAB faces much weaker competition; threat.

Race 8

(9) EXHIBITIONIST has been competitive against better and should offer value with a low percentage pilot. (4) MISS FINELINE should be closer turning for home; threat. (6) FELICIA HALL needs a lot of racing luck to hit the top spot.

Race 9

(9) ZORGWIJK HEAVENLY just needs a trouble free trip to hit the ticket. (7) DOUBTING TOM has made the most money in the field by far this year; threat. (5) Y F CRASHER takes a good drop in class in a wide open race.

Race 10

(5) SOMUCHCOOLERONLINE is capable of pacing a big mile and should offer a fair price coming off some issues. (6) AUDITORIAL well bred pacer had some sneaky late pace last week. (3) Q ZILLA takes a significant drop in class but has just been racing evenly.

Race 11

(2) DUSTY DUNES drops in class and picks up the top driver. (1) FOREVER GOOD gets the best post and should offer a nice price. (5) BRUNO MICHAEL needed his last start and should be primed for a better effort second start back off the layoff.

Race 12

(3) ANASTASIA WHINNIE will be used aggressively down in class. The trotting mare has been competitive against better on the year and just needs a trouble free trip to hit the ticket. (7) AXLE has recently shown a big burst of speed and makes his first start in a new barn. (5) PARTYATYOURPLACE seven-year-old stallion has consistently hit the board this year but is best used underneath.

Race 13

(2) OUR MCLOVIN picks up a huge driver change against a suspect bunch. (3) MODERN WARFARE looks to be in line for a ground saving trip at a price. (5) IRA'S BIG GUY has a good history at the track but could need another start coming off a long layoff.

Race 14

In the toughest race to gauge on the card, (6) JENNA'S DREAM will offer a monster price and could pick up the pieces in the right scenario. (2) IRON N STEEL picks up a significant driver change but has not been sharp in a while. (1) FAITH'S TATTLER will also offer a huge price with the best post; use underneath.

Race 15

(1) WIT AND WISDOM gelding looks ready to roll down in class making his third start back off a layoff down in class. (2) PAPA GRANDE has just been racing evenly but finds a field full of question marks; threat. (3) IYAMWHATISHAM owns wins against better on the year but is very inconsistent from week to week; command a price.

Race 16

(1) TERROR OF THETRACK owns multiple wins at this level and will look to take no prisoners from the rail. (2) MATACULATER gets a good starting post in a weak field. (5) PANFERMIN FESTIVAL is capable of pacing a good mile but needs racing luck.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delta Downs (1st) Honest Spree, 5-1
(9th) K One Four, 6-1

Mahoning Valley (1st) Autumn Ember, 9-2
(6th) Won Fast Bullet, 6-1

Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Haywired, 7-2
(7th) Dreamcastle, 5-1


Turf Paradise (6th) Sugar Pine Point, 7-2
(8th) Hidden Gun, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

761 NORTH DAKOTA STATE @ 762 UTAH STATE 10:00 PM

Take: UTAH STATE

First off, no line yet on this game, as it’s a tournament pairing that wasn’t officially set until mid-evening on Tuesday night. But Utah State will be the favorite here, and I would estimate the line being Aggies -4, maybe -4.5.

As far as that line is concerned, the kenpom projection is Utah State -3. One of the North Dakota State players is dinged up and his status for this game is presently unknown. I’m also adding one point for the main reason I like this game, which I’ll explain here.

The teams are pretty much a wash. In fact, I think you can make a case the Bison are a shade stronger than Utah State. But I see the home court advantage as stronger than under normal conditions tonight, and that’s the really the impetus for my take here.

This will be the third game in three days for each of these teams. I see that as advantage Utah State. First off, they’ve been able to spread the minutes out a little more over the first two nights, particularly with North Dakota State’s Kory Brown having to sit out last night. Brown got hurt early in the season and he’s apparently still not right. Brown isn’t the best player on this team at this point, but he’s the senior leader on what is a young squad and his appearances and minutes have been sporadic since he got hurt. The same can be said for his production. I don’t know right now what his status is for this game.

But with or without Brown, this is still three games in three nights in some big time altitude for the Bison. This isn’t by any means some kind of a revelation on my part. There’s all kinds of history at both the college and pro levels that shows teams not used to the altitude are more prone to potential fatigue.

I would assume Aggies coach Tim Duryea will be trying his best to exploit the possible weariness on the part of North Dakota State. If the Bison are again down one guy, that task becomes even more achievable.

I would be very surprised if this game gets lined at less than -3. On the flip side, if the guys who post the numbers tack on an extra point or two and send out a -5, that might be viewed as an indicator they’re weighting the factors here similarly. I’ll be siding with the favorite here, Utah State minus the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2015 10:35 PM EST

(723) UTAH JAZZ VS (724) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Take: (724) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, December 23, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Utah Jazz and the Golden State Warriors. Utah isn't as strong defensively this season, 17th in the NBA in field goal shooting defense,and 19th at defending the three. All of that is a concern against the might Golden State Warriors. The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a spread win. The Warriors are on a 10-4-1 ATS run and 8-1 ATS against the Western Conference. Stephen Curry scored 26 points and Green fueled a key fourth-quarter run that helped the Warriors avenge their only loss by beating the Bucks 121-112 on Friday night. Klay Thompson added 27 points, and Green had 21 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest and when these teams clash the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play the Warriors.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Wisc-Milwaukee vs Minnesota

Bonus Play Wisc-Milwaukee

I'm recommending a play on Wisc-Milwaukee on Wednesday night. Richard Pitino is facing some struggles at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are 6-5 SU, 2-7 ATS, and just snapped a 3-game skid with a 70-52 win over a bad Chicago State team that lost 77-35 to Northwestern before facing Minnesota. Chicago State was within three points of Minnesota in the second half, trailing 38-35 with 13 minutes to go before the Gophers pulled away, thanks in part to a huge discrepancy at the FT line. Minnesota finished the game with 32 FTA to just 6 for Chicago State. Minny still made less than 40% of their FGA and just 8 of 26 3-pointers. The Gophers can't shoot, ranked 279th in FG percentage, and they don't defend the deep perimeter too well, ranked 325th against the trey, allowing opponents to make 39% of their 3-point attempts. Tonight, the Gophers will take on a Milwaukee team with five players averaging in double-figures in ppg, ranging from 15.8 ppg to 10 ppg. Milwaukee averages 80.2 ppg as a team and they are the better rebounding team. They're also led by Jordan Johnson, an underrated floor leader with 94 assists and just 31 turnovers so far this season. The Panthers enter Wednesday on a 9-2 ATS run on the road, while the Gophers have covered just one of their last eight non-conference games. I'm recommending a play on Milwaukee on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Rockets vs Magic

5* NBA Free Pick Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets are going for a fourth consecutive win when they visit the Orlando Magic Wednesday night. James Harden scored 36 points and dished out seven assists in Monday's 102-95 win against the Hornets who were held to 34.9% shooting from the field. The Rockets have allowed just 93.0 points per game and a 39.1 field-goal percentage during their winning streak. They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven when playing on one day of rest and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. They're just 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Orlando, but it's worth noting that they've taken six of the last seven in the series SU. The Magic have been hot lately winning four of their last five, but I don't think they have any business being favored against a Rockets team on the rise tonight.

 

[iwmore]

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