VEGAS RUNNER
NBA "TRUE STEAM" for WED 12-23-09 :
1.) SA SPURS opened -8.5....Now -11
As I mentioned above, when those books that usually offer the first lines for games opened this one up...they all went ahead and put it out at 8.5...Because when the "very" first book (CRIS) opened their line at 8.5 and got no action from the Wiseguys, everyone else felt safe following their lead...And as of late last night, the most we saw in terms of movement...was a slight 1/2 point adjustment, to 9...Which is where the Vegas books opened the game...And we all know that these books here in Vegas, are usually the LAST to offer a betting line because they don't wany ANY Wiseguy money at all...So as of this morning, we were seeing some books still at 8.5...while others went ahead and offered the game at 9...And that's when things got hectic, and the Outfits sent the books scrambling to get it right...Because until they do, more times than not...these Betting Syndicates are going to punish them for it...And when the books do make that mistake of over-adjusting, the Wiseguys will try and punish them some more by trying to work a "middle"...For this bet, the Outfits went ahead and laid -9...then -9.5...and then went on to even lay -10 on the SPURS...And that forced the adjustment up to 11...Which is where the line is as I write this...VR
LINE PREDICTION : It's obvious to me, after speaking to a couple of runners who work for different Outfits...that the Wiseguys got more than enough money down at the numbers they wanted...And they took a very significant "position" on this game, which was based on "Line Value"...and "Handicapping"...Now usually when this is the case, what we will see next...is an attempt at a "Middle"...Which usually comes in the afternoon, if the Outfits don't think the "public" will help their cause...Other times, when the public bettors are able to help out...the Wiseguys will wait until very close to game-time...I believe that in this spot, the "middle" will come sooner than that, because I can't see the public bettors in any rush to lay double-digits with the Spurs, which would have helped move this line even higher...This is why I won't be surprised at all to see it come back down to 10.5 or even 10 by tip-off...With that said, if we do see this line go up above -11...then you can be 100% sure that the Outfits see this as a HUGE opportunity to get the BEST OF IT...Because a move like that would mean it is based even more on their handicapp, than on a difference of opinion on the line...Usually, when it's only based on the "line"...we will see the number get to where the Outfits think it should be, which usually happens pretty quickly after the lines are offered...And as soon as it's adjusted to that number, they back off for good...So my advice is to continue monitoring this line because most likely, we will see it come back down to 10/10.5...And I still believe there is betting value there...Otherwise, we will see this go up even higher...in which case, believe it or not...I would be even more confident to lay the points...VR
