Wednesday 12/2/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28500 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 BEENTOSPAIN 9/5


# 4 MONNIE MAE 4/1


# 9 CACTUS COCKTAIL 7/2


BEENTOSPAIN has a very strong shot to take this race. Is tough not to consider based on speed figures which have been formidable - 67 avg - of late. This filly gets a boost with Melancon in the irons. Earned a respectable speed figure last time out. MONNIE MAE - In this field, this one is in the upper half of earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. The class rating of today's contest is much lower than her last contest. CACTUS COCKTAIL - Boutte has this filly racing well and is a very good pick based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figures garnered in sprint races lately. Has respectable front-end speed and ought to fare soundly versus this group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9800 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 BE GOOD TO US 4/1


# 6 C J'S RULER 6/1


# 1 MY NICKEL GRAY 8/1


I think BE GOOD TO US is a respectable choice. Has a very strong shot for this event if you like back class. Perez has shown excellent profits (+13 return on investment ) with horses in dirt sprint events. Santiago has recent return on investment figures which make this horse a good wager. C J'S RULER - With a +2 ROI, this jockey and trainer duo has produced strong returns recently for players. Lately Manley has provided gamblers with a formidable winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. MY NICKEL GRAY - Will almost certainly compete very well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of animals. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a good handicapping angle. This one ranks at the top in this bunch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:27pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 CUMBERLAND GAP (ML=8/1)
#7 HAULER (ML=5/1)
#3 JOKER MAN (ML=9/2)


CUMBERLAND GAP - Look for this gelding to show better in this event. Last event at Penn National finishing eighth on a track listed as good is no sign of his true talent. HAULER - Rider jumped on this colt's back for the 1st time on Nov 2nd. Should be acquainted with the horse even better this time. This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +290. This colt is in superb physical condition right now. Finished first last time out and comes back rapidly. JOKER MAN - Although it's been awhile, this colt last won at this same class and distance. I think he could run back to that old form today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STITCHER (ML=3/1), #6 BECAUSE HE CAN (ML=4/1), #4 S. S. MINNOW (ML=6/1),

STITCHER - The Brain tells me to keep my distance from thoroughbreds in sprint races that haven't finished in the money in sprint events recently. This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two efforts. BECAUSE HE CAN - No picnic to bet on any horse in a sprint affair at 4/1 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last sixty days. S. S. MINNOW - Speed kills. Plenty of early speed in this race compromises this animal's dreams at winning.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 CUMBERLAND GAP to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:34pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 LONDON BY NIGHT (ML=8/1)
#7 STERLINGS MR. ABEL (ML=4/1)
#4 SARGENT SHULTZ (ML=3/1)


LONDON BY NIGHT - Was in an $8,000 Claiming race at Charles Town last time out. That race had a class figure of 73 and he is moving down in this race. A certain contender. You probably want to discount that last event at Charles Town in the slop where he finished outside the top 3. Should do well in this event without the off-track conditions. STERLINGS MR. ABEL - I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. It looks like Peltroche had to know this gelding on Nov 25th when riding him for the initial time. Back on again today. Widely used angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a nice one here. I like to see fast morning activity. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. SARGENT SHULTZ - Winless in his last three starts, this gelding's last win came on July 23rd at the same level and distance of today's race. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. This gelding's last speed fig garnered on November 25th is number one in last race speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 OUR BOY K C (ML=7/2), #3 SANDSFOOT CASTLE (ML=9/2), #11 BIG TICKET (ML=5/1),

OUR BOY K C - A bit of a less than stellar effort when this gelding finished fifth. SANDSFOOT CASTLE - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned often. This animal hasn't had nary a single drill after running so well on Nov 5th. BIG TICKET - You think this horse is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done frequently. Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing talent on November 25th.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 LONDON BY NIGHT to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7] Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,4,7] with [2,4,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #1 - AQUEDUCT RACETRACK - 12:20 PM EASTERN POST

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $55,000.00 PURSE

#2 BRIMSTONE
#4 SUPER PSYCHE
#5 MASCARELLO
#3 AARON BURR

#2 BRIMSTONE has the top TrackMaster PLUS "Power Rating" in this maiden field this afternoon, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" facing better company in both of his two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish in his last start. #4 SUPER PSYCHE also drops in class (-4), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in two of his last three outings, missing his "diploma" in his 2nd race by by just a "photographed neck" at the wire in a determined attempt to break his maiden. Jockey Junior Alvarado and Trainer Bill Mott send him to the post ... they've hit the board with nearly 50% of more than 170 entries saddled as a team to date.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 12/2 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

4 / 2,4,5,6,9 / 6 / 1,4,5,9 = $20

Best Bet: STRYKER (8th)

Spot Play: SARKIN HANOVER (3rd)


Race 1

(9) MUSICAL ROMANCE faces a slightly weaker bunch and should be in line for a decent trip. (1) KAPTAIN JON BOY has yet to win in thirteen career efforts but has been knocking on the door. (2) BLUE JACKET LUKE if the 3-year-old stays trotting he's the horse to beat.

Race 2

(1) DOUBLESHOTOFCROWN gets the best post and an upgrade in the bike. (3) GOOD ROBERTA filly scored a victory at this level wire to wire last week; threat. (7) STRONG PLAYIN KING gelding is more than capable if the kinks are worked out.

Race 3

(3) SARKIN HANOVER should be primed for a better effort third start back off a layoff. (4) CALLIT AS U SEEIT filly hits the board a lot when she stays trotting. (5) NEELY DUNN SUPER lightly raced 3-year-old had some good late trot on the end of his mile last week; threat.

Race 4

(8) FLYING SOUTH has been racing gamely and finds a field full of question marks. The pacer needs some racing luck with the tough post but could be up to the task with a decent setup. (5) UNCLE DONNIE owns a win at this level and gets a post edge on his main rivals. (7) NINETYNINE has just been racing evenly but will offer a big price in against a suspect bunch.

Race 5

(4) DREAMANOTHERDREAM will look to drop and pop down in class. (1) TABULATOR is 0 for 35 on the year but just missed when last seen at this level with a good post. (3) LA'SENT can hit the board with a smooth trip but is probably best used underneath.

Race 6

(2) SENATOR SAM despite tiring badly last out the trotter has been racing much better with a different driver. (1) FORT COMMANDER just missed last week against weaker. The 5-year-old bumps up in class but could be in line for an easier trip. (6) SPIES AN LIES is capable against this bunch with a good setup.

Race 7

(6) BOOTYSHAKERBAKER never had a chance last week but should find this spot easier. (1) PRINTSONTHEBEACH had some pace last week but might have been choked a bit sitting in a hole. The pacer gets the best post with a big driver change. (2) Q COBRA JET lightly raced pacer is one of few in the race with some upside; threat.

Race 8

(4) STRYKER was an easy winner at this level a few days ago. (1) GALLOWS POLE drops down to the bottom level with the best post. (3) SIR BARTON has just been racing evenly but finds a weak and inconsistent field.

Race 9

(2) WILDATTHEBEACH mare has some positives going for her including post relief and dropping down in class. (5) HOPEFUL TRUST has been competitive against tougher but has had a hard time sealing the deal. (6) MCMERRY AGAIN had some late pace last out but needs more.

Race 10

(6) GRANDKIDS ATTACK will win for fun again with anything similar to his last dominating effort. (1) NATHAN should be closer turning for home but would need a lot of racing luck to upset the favorite. (9) FLYING METRO owns wins against better on the year but has just been racing evenly; use underneath.

Race 11

(5) CAMMILICIOUS never had a chance last week against a horse who broke his lifetime mark by almost three full seconds. The pacer has room to improve and could get an easy early lead. (1) SHAGUAR gets sent out for proven connections with the best post. (4) SOUTHSIDE CHRIS lightly raced pacer will look to make it two straight against similar; threat.

Race 12

(2) WATCHA GOT ABBY filly comes off a career effort and might have gained some confidence in a weak field. (1) CEANA'S STAR looks to be in line for a great trip with the top driver. (3) PONDA BLITZ is capable with a good setup; threat.

Race 13

(2) RAIDERS BOY picks up a huge driver change against slightly weaker. (1) CRAIG MICHAEL has just been racing evenly but gets the best post; threat. (4) TERROR OF THETRACK jumps up with big efforts from time to time but is probably best used underneath.

Race 14

(9) BADLANDS ROSE owns a win at this level on the year and just needs a smooth trip for a piece. (5) OLA HANOVER will be much closer turning for home this week and will offer another big price. (2) HOT MANDY looks to offer low value and has had trouble staying pacing; use caution.

Race 15

(9) DANNYS ATTHEDANCE makes his third start for the top barn against a suspect bunch. (1) BRYNDAN'S TOY would be the horse to beat with a different pilot; threat. (6) FOREVER GOOD is one of few in the race that owns a decent burst of speed.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Bridgetta, 4-1
(8th) Nubin Ridge, 8-1


Charles Town (1st) Shehasit Too, 9-2
(8th) Riley Coyote, 9-2


Delta Downs (3rd) Bevos Winch, 8-1
(10th) Hit Top Speed, 5-1


Finger Lakes (1st) Miss Valued, 3-1
(4th) Nico's Prize, 5-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Beach Palace, 6-1
(6th) Fast Alice, 8-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Lookoutboys, 3-1
(8th) Simply Secret, 6-1


Penn National (3rd) True Cost, 7-2
(6th) Captured, 5-1


Remington Park (4th) Zensational Rhythm, 3-1
(8th) Point At Z Baby, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (7th) Jack's Comprise, 6-1
(8th) Leave Er B, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

521 ST. BONAVENTURE at 522 BUFFALO 7:00 PM

Take: ST. BNONAVENTURE -1.5

I took a tough loss on Saturday trying to beat Buffalo. Canisius looked to be in great shaper to eke out a win in an exciting game. But Buffalo managed to knock down a turnaround three from the corner with just a few seconds remaining to force overtime. The Bulls then again rallied from a deficit in the extra session, scored the game’s final five points and ended up winning by a deuce.

I’ll hope the good fortune doesn’t hold up for a second straight game here. This time St. Bonaventure will provide the opposition, and this should be another tightly contested affair.

The Bonnies did not play well in their second half against Hofstra and ended up with a home loss in a game I imagine they feel they should have won. That should insure plenty of focus for this neighborhood battle.

As for the matchup, it’s all about efficiency for me. St. Bonaventure is just better at getting the ball into the basket than Buffalo. The Bonnies are in great shape if this ends up being decided at the foul line as they simply are not missing from the stripe. St. Bonaventure is cashing in at an extraordinary 84% rate on its free throws, and in a game that figures to be tight, that could be critical.

My big concern here is the lack of depth on the Bonnies side. Their starters are logging a load of minutes and if foul trouble rears its head, that would favor Buffalo. St. Bonaventure also needs to take care of the rock, as this Buffalo team is doing a very nice job in terms of ball security, and I don’t want the Bulls ending up with several extra possessions.

For me, the bottom line is that I like the idea of backing a team that probably feels they let one get away last game. I also like the premise of trying to beat a team that had Lady Luck on its side as she’s got a way of evening things up in a hurry. Expect this one to be a real battle between two rivals, but when the dust settles I like St. Bonaventure to escape with a narrow win and cover.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

76ers vs Knicks

Bonus Play New York Knicks

I'm recommending a play on the NY Knicks minus the points on Wednesday. The 76ers had been coming closer and closer and finally landed in the win column last night, beating a horrible, 2-15 Laker team. The win and cover made it six straight ATS victories for the Sixers. But after five straight hard-fought close calls and the win last night, I expect a letdown against the Knicks. New York has dropped four straight games, but the schedule has been tough as nails. In fact, not just the last four games, but for most of the season. Before the slide, the Knicks had won four straight and covered seven in a row. Carmelo Anthony practiced on Tuesday and it will be decided today if he's going to suit-up. I suspect he will after yesterday's practice, but this is a play on NY whether Anthony plays or not. The Knicks are taking a step down in level of competition and catching the 76ers at the right time on top it. I'm recommending a play on the Knicks minus the points on Wednesday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.