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Bad Company - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers

There are plenty of huge matchups inside college football this week (Alabama at LSU, Baylor at Oklahoma, Kansas State at TCU). But there are also a number of contests between teams that are out of contention, which set up for decent wagering opportunities. We’ll take a look at these squads in Week 11 of the college football season, starting with a pair of bottom-feeders in the AAC.

SMU (+12) at Tulsa – 12:00 PM EST

These two teams have combined for just one win, while Tulsa’s only victory this season came back in August against Tulane in two overtimes. How bad has SMU’s offense been this season? The Mustangs have busted double-digits just twice in seven games, while scoring six points or less in the other five contests. In the lone game that SMU covered, the Mustangs were getting 40 ½ points in a 45-24 loss at East Carolina, while SMU has given up at least 41 points in each defeat.

Tulsa is favored for the fourth time this season, but has lost each of its past three home contests against USF, Texas State, and Oklahoma. The Golden Hurricane hasn’t been horrible offensively, but has yielded at least 31 points in all eight games. Tulsa has put together a 1-5 ATS record in its past six games in the role of a home favorite, while posting a 6-14 ATS mark overall since the start of 2013.

Syracuse (+3 ½) vs. Duke – 12:30 PM EST

The Orange last won a game at the Carrier Dome in late August against FCS squad Villanova – in overtime. Syracuse has dropped four consecutive home games, capped off by a 24-17 loss to North Carolina State as 3 ½-point favorites, ending the Wolfpack’s 12-game ACC losing streak. The Orange has played better defensively after a slow start, allowing 47 points in the past three games, but faces a Duke team that averaging 212 yards a game on the ground.

Duke has lost just once this season, as the Blue Devils are closing a stretch of four road games in six weeks. The Blue Devils outlasted Pittsburgh in overtime, 51-48, in spite of allowing nearly 600 yards to the Panthers last week. Amazingly, Duke has been outgained by at least 100 yards in all four ACC games this season, while facing Syracuse for the first time in school history.

Tulane (+17 ½) at Houston – 3:30 PM EST

The Cougars are getting back on track following a 17-12 home loss to UCF last month, as Houston is riding a three-game winning streak. After Houston knocked off Memphis as a road underdog, the Cougars crushed Temple and USF, outscoring those two squads by a combined 48-13. The Cougars will be significant favorites in the next three games, as this team faces Tulsa and SMU in the following two weeks prior to a huge conference showdown at Cincinnati to close the regular season.

Tulane embarrassed themselves in front of a nationally televised audience in a 38-14 setback to Cincinnati as a four-point home underdogs last Friday. The Green Wave has dropped three of four conference games, with the lone win coming in a 12-3 defensive struggle over UConn. Tulane has dropped 10 straight meetings with Houston, as each of the last nine matchups have been decided by 19 points or more.

Georgia State (+7) at Troy – 3:30 PM EST

The only good news regarding this matchup is someone has to win. These two teams have combined for a 2-16 record, as Georgia State’s only win came in the opener against FCS foe Abilene Christian, 38-37. The Panthers covered seven of nine games last season, but Georgia State is just 4-5 ATS this season, while this team has given up 1,082 yards rushing in the past two weeks to Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

Troy hasn’t been much better, scoring just 37 points in the past three losses since beating New Mexico State, 41-24. The Trojans have yielded 1,158 yards on the ground during this three-game losing streak, but Troy did face two stellar attacks in Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, who ran all over Georgia State. When Troy and Georgia State hooked up last season, the Trojans gained 634 yards, but won a close game, 35-28 as 15-point road favorites.

Washington State (+8) at Oregon State – 4:00 PM EST

Two struggling squads inside the loaded Pac-12 look to end losing streaks this Saturday in Corvallis. The Cougars are without the nation’s leading passer as Connor Halliday broke his leg in last Saturday’s 44-17 loss to USC. Washington State will try to snap a four-game skid as it turns to redshirt freshman Lucas Falk, who threw for 346 yards in the defeat to the Trojans. Wazoo has been limited to 17 points or less in two of the past three games, while posting a 1-4 ATS record in Pac-12 play by somehow upsetting Utah on the road as 13-point underdogs.

The Beavers have dropped four of five games inside the conference, with the only win coming against cellar-dweller Colorado. Oregon State rallied from a 17-point deficit in last week’s game against California, but the Golden Bears outscored the Beavers, 18-0 to close the game in a 45-31 win by Cal on the road. The Beavers are 3-0 in the past three meetings with the Cougars, including a 52-24 rout in Pullman last season as 2 ½-point favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Air Force Falcons (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)

This week: -6 at UNLV

Air Force has lost two in a row to UNLV after going down at home 41-21 last season, but one year is enough to make all the difference. The Falcons went 2-10 (0-8 Mountain West) in 2013 while the Rebels went 7-6 (5-3). This time around, Air Force is 6-2 (2-2) through eight games and UNLV is 2-7 (1-4).

The biggest difference for the Falcons is a defense led by Jordan Pierce that is much healthier and simply having more fun than it did last year. Pierce, a senior who has overcome two serious knee injuries, has brought a livelier and more communicative atmosphere to the unit. In turn, Air Force is allowing just 22.1 points per game. It has not allowed 40 in any contest after having given up more than 40 eight times in 2013.

This should be a favorable matchup for the Falcons. They are surrendering just 145.5 rushing yards per game and UNLV is gaining only 3.6 yards per carry. Air Force rushes for 269.5 yards per outing and UNLV is giving up 267.9 yards per contest on the ground.

Team to beware: Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS)

This week: +9.5 at Rice

UTSA’s quarterback situation in 2014 has been a borderline disaster. Tucker Carter started the first five games but was ineffective (two TDs, five INTs) in part due to injuries to both shoulders. Blake Bogenschutz started on Oct. 11 and promptly went down with a broken hand. Austin Robinson has since filled in and is without a touchdown while throwing three interceptions. Head coach Larry Coker says Carter will get the nod on Saturday at Rice if he is cleared to play.

Speaking of Coker, social media-driven rumors are swirling around the former Miami (FL) coach possibly jumping ship for SMU. Coker insists there is no distraction, but the Roadrunners certainly did not look in top form in a 34-0 home loss to UTEP on Oct. 25, shortly after the rumors started.

UTSA is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall. Rice is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall.

Total team: Wyoming Cowboys (4-5 SU, 5-4 O/U)

This week: vs. Utah State

Wyoming running back Shaun Wick in the midst of being out for at least four weeks with a broken hand. No matter; enter freshman Brian Hill. Hill’s first career start resulted in Walter Camp National FBS Offensive Player of the Week and Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors. He erupted for 281 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries and also caught three passes for 106 yards in last Saturday’s 45-17 win over Fresno State. After Wick went down a week earlier at Colorado State, Hill rushed 28 times for 121 yards and two scores.

The news is not as good for the Cowboys on the other side of the ball, with three seniors questionable for Friday’s game against Utah State. Defensive ends Sonny Puletasi (leg) and Riley Lange (concussion) are in doubt along with safety Jesse Sampson (leg).

The over is 5-0 in Wyoming’s last five overall and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Get Oregon as single-digit fave
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oregon Ducks (-9.5) at Utah Utes

Oregon opened as 9.5-point road favorites at Utah, and money has yet to come in on this game. But I do expect Oregon money to come in and push this line up to -10 or higher. The Ducks have won and covered the spread in their past four games, so bettors will be inclined to back Oregon once again.

Utah comes in off an overtime loss at Arizona State, and that game followed a close 24-21 win over USC. In fact, the Utes have played in five straight games that have been decided by six points or less, including two overtime games. Oregon is a single digit favorite with a high octane offense, so lay the points now before the line goes up to double digits.

Spread to wait on

Texas A&M Aggies (+21) at Auburn Tigers

Auburn opened as a 20-point favorite at home versus Texas A&M and this line will likely go higher. The Aggies were exposed in three consecutive games, culminating in a 59-0 blowout loss in Alabama. Bettors won’t forget that loss, so Texas A&M will have little support in this game.

Auburn is one of the top teams in the country, but the Tigers are in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game against Texas A&M. Auburn is off a fortunate win in Mississippi last Saturday, and the Tigers survived South Carolina the week before while losing at Mississippi State the game prior to that. With Georgia on deck, this is an easy game for Auburn to overlook. Wait this game out, and take Texas A&M at +21.5 points or more later in the week.

Total to watch

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun Devils

Notre Dame has played in three straight high-scoring games with combined total scores of 93, 58, and 88 points. Off those three games, the oddsmakers are going to inflate the total on this game by a couple of points, especially since the Sun Devils have the reputation of a high-scoring team.

However, Arizona State has a very good defense this season, and that has gone largely unnoticed. The Sun Devils are 5-3 to the Under while allowing just 24.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play. Over their past three games, Arizona State has allowed just 36 total points (12.0 ppg). The Sun Devils’ offense is trending down as they have only scored 26, 24, and 19 points in their past three games. If this total comes out higher than the mid-50’s, there will be value with the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The best bets in college football you didn't know about
By KEVIN CAUSEY

If you’re looking for college football’s biggest breadwinners, don’t waste your time betting on power conference programs. While a few top-tier teams have held their own against the spread, these small schools have consistently cashed in – and you didn’t even notice.

Georgia Southern Eagles: 7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS

The Eagles have been a 17-point or greater favorite in their last five games despite this being their first year in the FBS. They’ve covered in all of those contests except a road stop at New Mexico State.

Georgia Southern currently leads the nation in rushing yards, average yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. The Eagles are also 17th in turnover margin. An option team that doesn't turn the ball over (they've lost only nine on the year) is dangerous.

Southern has also benefited from playing a weak schedule. The last five teams it’s faced have a combined record of 8-35 SU this season. Bettor should be wary of GSU when the schedule amps up the last three weeks of the season, with two of those games (at Texas State, at Navy) on the road.

Western Michigan Broncos: 6-3 SU, 8-1 ATS

The Broncos were just 1-11 SU in 2013 so they’ve received some favorable spreads at the beginning of the year. But they've also won some impressive games outright (at Ball State and at Bowling Green).

A positive note is that WMU is getting better as the season goes on and has covered the spread by double-digits in each of the last three weeks (Broncos averaging plus-10.5 vs. the spread this season).

The Broncos are also doing it on both sides of the football, as they have the third-ranked offense and the third-ranked defense in the MAC. The next two games are against Central Michigan (5-5 ATS) and Eastern Michigan (4-5 ATS) – two in state rivalries for Western Michigan.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS

Like Western Michigan, the Bulldogs had a bad 2013 which resulted in them receiving some favorable spreads to start the season. With that, they still had to back into a cover in the opener against Oklahoma. Their last two wins have been solid, crushing Western Kentucky and winning at Southern Mississippi (the Golden Eagles scored late to make this look closer than it was).

What should scare you about the Bulldogs is their inconsistency. On the year, Louisiana Tech has three losses: Oklahoma, Auburn and Northwestern State. One of these things is not like the others. A team that loses to an FCS school is probably not the wisest place to invest your money but keep an eye on the line for the Old Dominion game in two weeks (ODU is 2-7 ATS).

UMass Minutemen: 2-7 SU, 7-2 ATS

The Minutemen are a team that is performing way above their previous versions and have won two of their last three games outright. They do have a backdoor cover against Bowling Green and they've blown some late leads (Miami (Ohio) and Vanderbilt) but they’re getting better.

Massachusetts has covered in five straight games, set as an underdog in all but one of those outings. In fact, UMass was a 15-point favorite versus Eastern Michigan two weeks ago – the first time it’s been favored since Week 9 of last season (-4 vs. Western Michigan).

The Minutemen have Ball State (4-4 ATS), Akron (2-6 ATS) and Buffalo (3-5 ATS) left on their schedule and enjoy a bye in Week 11 before playing two of their next three at home, where they’re 3-1 ATS.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ohio's low scoring offense pandering to low total
Justin Hartling

Fans of the Ohio Bobcats have not been treated to high scoring games as of late. In Ohio's past five contests, the under has paid out four times.

Those five games have seen the Bobcats average a mere 20 ppg. Ohio quarterbacks have also thrown more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3) during that span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

After hot start, NIU has become awful ATS play
Justin Hartling

After starting the season 3-0 straight-up and against the spread, the Northern Illinois Huskies have fallen on hard times. The past five games have seen the Huskies post a 3-2 SU record while failing to cover in all the contests.

Three times NIU failed to cover by 20 or more points while missing the spread win by an average of 17 points per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Wednesday's games

Buffalo lost its last three games, allowing 31 ppg; they're 0-4 as dogs in 2014, 0-2 on road- they've lost road games by 8-1-10 points. Bulls lost seven of last eight visits to Ohio, losing 38-31/34-17 in last two; the dog is 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games played here. Bobcats are 1-3 in last four games; two of their three I-A wins were by 3 points. MAC home favorites are 5-13 against spread. Hard to back team that fired its coach in-season (Buffalo). Ohio is 3-0 when it scored 23+ points 1-5 if it scored 21 or less.

Northern Illinois won its last five games with Ball State (3-2 vs spread); Huskies ran ball for 910 yards in last three series games- they won last two visits to Muncie, 35-23/59-21. NIU is 5-2 SU but 0-5 vs spread in last five games; they're 3-1 on road this year, winning by 8-14-11, with only loss at SEC's Arkansas. MAC home underdogs are 7-7 this year. Ball State won last two games, scoring 32-35 points, after losing its first five I-A games; Cardinals covered four of five as an underdog this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Wednesday, November 5 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Here’s guessing there will be plenty of good seats available on Wednesday night in Philadelphia when the 76ers host the Magic in the NBA’s Toilet Bowl matchup of the week. At least we know one of those two wretched teams won’t start the season breaking the NBA record of 26 straight losses (overall, not to start a year). Of course, Philly tied that record last year. Here’s a look at Wednesday’s full schedule, with Pacers-Wizards and Clippers-Warriors having live betting at the major sportsbooks, with both on ESPN.

Magic at 76ers (-3, 196)

It’s the second of a back-to-back for Orlando as it played a tough one in Chicago on Tuesday night. Have a feeling that will be yet another double-digit loss for the Magic. Meanwhile, the 76ers have to lose by less than 11 points. They have been off since falling 104-93 at home to Houston on Monday. Sixers center Henry Sims did not start for the first time this season as he battled an illness. Rookie forward Nerlens Noel is 6-foot-11 and can jump out of the gym. Yet he didn’t get his first rebound in that game until there was 2:40 left in the game. Philly actually has played well the first three quarters of all four losses before talent simply won out in the fourth.

Key trends: The “over/under” has gone under in six of past seven meetings. The under is 10-1 in Orlando’s past 11 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: This you won’t see more than a few more times all year: Philly as a favorite! I have zero opinion on the side here, but crush the under. Neither team can hit the side of a barn.

Heat at Hornets (TBA)

This seems like a major letdown game for Miami after hosting unbeaten Houston on Tuesday night. Heat big men Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem were iffy for that one, so keep an eye on that here. It’s the second of a back-to-back for Charlotte as well as it played in New Orleans on Tuesday. The Heat have totally owned Charlotte, winning 20 straight in this “series.” But those were all with LeBron James, and the then-Bobcats played Miami pretty tough in the first round of last year’s playoffs even though they were swept. The Hornets’ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was iffy for Tuesday, so watch his status here as well.

Key trends: The Heat have covered six straight in Charlotte. The under is 5-1 in Charlotte’s past six at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Early lean: Hornets will win this straight up and end that skid. They should be favored by a couple when it opens — obviously depending on what might transpire Tuesday.

Raptors at Celtics (+1, 202)

Boston may be able to steal this one as Toronto comes in off playing Tuesday night at home against Oklahoma City, although as injury-ravaged as the Thunder are they might not put up much of a fight. Boston has somewhat been the opposite of what it was last year in that the C’s are scoring a ton through three games (108.0 ppg) but also giving up a lot (109.0 ppg). Rajon Rondo looks healthy, and he nearly had a triple-double in Monday’s 118-113 loss to Dallas. Jeff Green and Avery Bradley combined for 67 points in that one. The C’s nearly erased a 31-point hole.

Key trends: Toronto has covered just one of its past 10 in Boston. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics’ past five at home.

Early lean: Yeah, the Raptors seem to never play well in Boston. Take that point.

Timberwolves at Nets (-6, 201)

Brooklyn looked very sharp on Monday night in thrashing the visiting Thunder 116-85. Brook Lopez played his first game in almost 11 months and had 18 points in Brooklyn’s biggest home-opening win ever. Lopez was averaging a team-best 20.7 points when he broke his right foot last Dec. 20 against Philadelphia and had season-ending surgery. The Wolves have been off since falling 106-105 at home to Chicago in the final seconds Saturday. Andrew Wiggins committed a rookie-type foul on Jimmy Butler to allow Butler to win it with two free throws. Keep an eye on Minnesota starting forward Thaddeus Young here as he left before halftime with a strained neck after colliding with Butler. Young did practice Monday, so it seems he should play.

Key trends: Brooklyn is 8-1 in its past nine vs. the West. The over is 8-1 in Minnesota’s past nine on the road.

Early lean: Nets and the over.

Knicks at Pistons (-1.5, 193)

Second of a back-to-back for New York as it hosted Washington on Tuesday night. I really thought Stan Van Gundy would make the Pistons better, but so far that’s not the case as Detroit looks for its first win. The Pistons haven’t scored more than 91 points yet and are last in the NBA in scoring. They have been off since a 12-point home loss to Brooklyn on Saturday. Detroit was a terrible home bet last year and isn’t off to a good start in 2014 there. Through three games, the Pistons are shooting 21.9 percent on 3-pointers but taking more than 20 a game.

Key trends: The Knicks are 5-0 in their past five playing on zero days of rest. Detroit has failed to cover seven straight at home. The under is 6-0 in the past six meetings in Motown.

Early lean: Pistons get their first win rather easily. Go under.

Pacers at Wizards (-11, 189.5)

Here’s another double back-to-back with Indiana hosting Milwaukee on Tuesday and Washington visiting the Knicks. The Pacers are still waiting for George Hill (knee contusion), C.J. Watson (bruised foot) and David West (sprained ankle) to debut, but none are expected to here. Also, guard Rodney Stuckey was iffy Tuesday, so watch his status. Of course, Washington and Indiana met in last season’s conference semifinals, with the Pacers winning in six.

Key trends: The underdog has covered the past seven meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.

Early lean: Lean under here.

Bulls at Bucks (+7, 191.5)

I would be very dubious that Derrick Rose might play. It sounded like he would Tuesday night vs. Orlando despite, missing a game with sprains to both ankles. However, he’s going to get a few games in a back-to-back situations off, and this sure feels like one even though it’s an easy trip north to Milwaukee from Chicago. As noted above, Milwaukee played in Indiana on Tuesday night. Bucks rookie Jabari Parker is from Chicago so no doubt will be excited to face the team he grew up rooting for.

Key trends: The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The over is 5-2 in the past seven in Milwaukee.

Early lean: Milwaukee is pretty decent value at that number. Take the Bucks to cover.

Hawks at Spurs (-9.5, 202.5)

Atlanta is of course coached by Mike Budenholzer, who was a long-time assistant under Gregg Popovich with the Spurs. Both teams will be plenty rested. The Hawks have been off since beating the Pacers 102-92 on Saturday. First-round pick Adreian Payne missed his second straight game with an injured left foot. The Spurs have been off since falling last Friday 94-89 in Phoenix. Not a shock the Spurs lost, but only 89 points? Kawhi Leonard was back in the lineup after missing the opener with an eye infection. He was 0-for-5 shooting and scored six points.

Key trends: Atlanta is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 vs. the West. The Spurs are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 at home.

Early lean: This line seems a bit too high, so take the points.

Grizzlies at Suns (-3, 193.5)

Couple of key injuries to note for Memphis. Very underrated point guard Mike Conley re-aggravated his right ankle sprain during Monday’s win over New Orleans, but he said the injury is nothing to worry about. He stayed in the game, so it seems like he’s fine to play here. Fellow starting guard Courtney Lee is expected to play after missing the past two with a concussion. Memphis has looked terrific in starting 4-0 and leads the NBA in scoring defense (85.0 ppg), which is not a surprise. Phoenix played at the Lakers on Tuesday night and got forward P.J. Tucker back off an opening three-game suspension. He probably will come off the bench for a while. Memphis and Phoenix couldn’t be much more different. The Grizz are front-court based while the Suns want to run with their terrific three guards.

Key trends: The Grizzlies have covered the past four meetings. The under is 7-0 in the past seven in Phoenix.

Early lean: Interesting total as the books obviously expect a pace more toward Memphis’ style. As long as Conley and Lee play, take the points. Do go under.

Cavaliers at Jazz (+7.5, 202)

This absolutely looks like a major letdown game for Cleveland after it had to play in the frenzied atmosphere of Portland on Tuesday night. You know that’s likely to be a track meet. Just for a point of comparison, LeBron’s Miami Heat lost in Utah last year. It’s just not an easy place to play. Utah is a very bad defensive team but can put up some points. It has been off since a 107-101 loss at the Clippers on Monday. This could be the highest-scoring game of the night.

Key trends: Utah has covered one of its past seven at home. The over is 5-1 in the Jazz’s past six overall.

Early lean: Over for sure and I like the points. An outright Jazz win wouldn’t shock me.

Nuggets at Kings (pick’em, 205.5)

I was high on the Kings being much improved this year and so far so good as they are 3-1 following Monday’s 110-105 win in Denver. That game was very chippy with a whopping 63 fouls called. Sacramento was an obscene 40 of 47 from the line. New addition Darren Collison led the Kings, who are 3-1 for the first time in four years, with 21 points. The Nuggets put seven guys into double figures. Denver’s Danilo Gallinari remains on a strict minutes restriction off knee surgery and played just 14:01. He was 0 for 6 from the field off the bench with Wilson Chandler moving into the starting lineup.

Key trends: Denver has covered six straight at the Kings. The over is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Have to love those pick’ems! Hard to beat a team twice in a home-and-home but Kings just look better. Take them.

Clippers at Warriors (-2.5, 210.5)

I’m not a fan of either of these teams personally, but you aren’t a basketball fan if you don’t like watching their games. It’s always entertaining and usually high scoring. The Clippers beat the Warriors in a terrific seven-game West quarterfinals series last season. L.A. has started this season 3-1, but the wins are against lousy teams Oklahoma City, the Lakers and Utah. Chris Paul did have a triple-double — the first in NBA this season — in Monday’s win vs. the Jazz. Jamal Crawford returned from missing a game with bruised ribs and had 19 points. He says he’s not 100 percent yet but will play. The Warriors are unbeaten and off a 95-90 win in Portland on Sunday. Maybe the Warriors were right not to trade Klay Thompson. He leads the NBA in scoring at 29.7 ppg. Golden State forward David Lee hasn’t played yet this season (hamstring) but is targeting this game.

Key trends: The home team has covered five of the past six. The over has hit in 12 of the past 16.

Early lean: Golden State and the over.