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Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2016, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

You won't see Pacers superstar Paul George on Wednesday night when Indiana visits Portland to begin a five-game road trip through the Western Conference. George has missed the past two and five of the last six games with an ankle injury that has been bothering George since at least Nov. 11, when he first missed a contest against the Boston Celtics because of the injury. George got off to a great start this season but is just 19-for-56 in his past three games that he has played. Overall, George is averaging 20.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists. C.J. Miles (sore left knee) was able to go through some individual work on Monday. He has missed the past five with that knee but might play Wednesday. If not, both George and Miles seem likely to return in the team's next game Sunday.


Kings at 76ers (+3.5, 208.5)

Sacramento lost 101-95 in overtime at Washington on Monday in the second of a back-to-back. DeMarcus Cousins had 36 points and a season-high 20 rebounds. But he missed all three of his field-goal attempts and a pair of free throws in the OT. Philadelphia gave Joel Embiid the night off to rest Monday and the 76ers dropped a fourth in a row, 122-95 in Toronto. The team's losing streak away from home is at 22 games dating to last season. Embiid should be in there Wednesday in a great matchup with Cousins. These two teams split the season series last year with each winning on the other's home court.

Key trends: The Kings are 1-4 against the spread in the past five in Philly. The "over/under" is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings overall.

Early lean: 76ers (as long as Embiid plays) and over.

Pistons at Celtics (-8, 201)

First of an NBA TV doubleheader. Detroit was in Charlotte on Tuesday. Boston played without Al Horford on Monday as his wife was to give birth, but the Celtics won in Miami anyway, 112-104. Isaiah Thomas had 25 points and eight assists. Boston never trailed after about midway through the first quarter. Horford should play here. These teams met in Auburn Hills on Nov. 19 and Boston won 94-92. Horford converted the game-winning layup with 1.3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter before coming up with the game-saving block on the other end.

Key trends: The Pistons are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The under is 4-0 in the previous four.

Early lean: Celtics and under.

Grizzlies at Raptors (TBA)

Memphis lost 104-85 at home Monday to Charlotte. Marc Gasol led Memphis with 19 points and eight rebounds. Mike Conley had 14 points before leaving in the third quarter with a lower back injury. Conley will be re-evaluated Tuesday, but he's in question for this one. Toronto won a third in a row Monday in blowing out Philadelphia. Kyle Lowry set a team record by going 6-for-6 from long range on the way to 24 points. Jonas Valanciunas left in the third quarter with an ankle injury so monitor that. Toronto swept Memphis last year and has taken the past three at home in the series.

Key trends: The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five. The over is 9-2 in Toronto's past 11.

Early lean: Wait on Conley.

Lakers at Bulls (-9.5, 212.5)

Los Angeles was in New Orleans on Tuesday with Julius Randle questionable. This is Chicago's first home game since Nov. 12 as it completed a six-game Circus Trip at 4-2. The Bulls finished it with a 105-89 victory in Philadelphia on Friday. Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade had 26 points apiece. Doug McDermott (concussion) has been cleared for non-contact work and shooting but he's not playing Wednesday. The Bulls are looking to sweep the Lakers for the third time in four years. They played in L.A. on Nov. 20 and Bulls got 40 points from Butler and 51.7 percent shooting as a team to win 118-110. Wade was held out to rest. Chicago has won five straight at home in the series.

Key trends: The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 4-0 in the previous four.

Early lean: Bulls and over.

Wizards at Thunder (-5.5, 214.5)

Washington beat visiting Sacramento in overtime on Monday behind 31 points and a career-high seven 7-pointers made from Bradley Beal. John Wall added 19 points and 11 assists, but he had a career-high 11 turnovers. After making his season debut Saturday following preseason surgery on his left knee, center Ian Mahinmi sat with a sore right knee. OKC won a third straight Monday, 112-103 at the Knicks. Russell Westbrook had his third straight triple-double and the 45th of his career, finishing with 27 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists. He is now averaging a triple-double on the season. Oklahoma City handily won both meetings last year against Washington.

Key trends: The Wizards are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four meetings. The over is 9-4 in the past 13 meetings.

Early lean: Thunder and over.

Knicks at Timberwolves (-3, 210)

New York lost a second consecutive game Monday, 112-103 to the Thunder. Derrick Rose scored a season-best 30 points, but the Knicks had their six-game home winning streak snapped. Carmelo Anthony was just 4-for-19 from the field. Minnesota lost 112-103 at home to Utah on Monday. Zach LaVine led with 28 points in the loss. He also had eight rebounds and eight assists. New York swept Minnesota last season and is 4-1 in its past five visits to the Twin Cities.

Key trends: The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine. The under is 5-2 in Minnesota's past seven overall.

Early lean: Wolves and under.

Spurs at Mavericks (TBA)

San Antonio hosted Orlando on Tuesday, so you have some key guys potentially taking a seat for this road tilt in the second of a back-to-back. Dallas ended an eight-game losing streak Sunday with a 91-81 home win over New Orleans. Wesley Matthews had 12 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback victory. Dirk Nowitzki's Achilles' tendon issue flared up again and he sat out; I addressed Dirk on Tuesday in that he might sit a while or play one, get a few off, etc. San Antonio beat visiting Dallas 96-91 on Nov. 21. The Spurs have won six straight overall in the series.

Key trends: The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five. The under is 7-2 in the previous nine.

Early lean: Wait on Dirk, the potential Spurs.

Heat at Nuggets (TBA)

Miami lost for the fourth time in five games Monday, 112-104 vs. Boston. Tyler Johnson and Dion Waiters (he's not even on this trip) were both out; Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside were both questionable but played. Dragic had 27 points and 17 assists for the Heat, setting season bests in both categories. Whiteside added 25 points and 17 rebounds. Denver won in Phoenix 120-114 on Sunday. Danilo Gallinari missed his third straight game with right thigh soreness. Miami won both meetings last year vs. Denver by a combined eight points.

Key trends: The Heat are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 in Denver. The over is 9-3 in the Nuggets' past 12 overall.

Early lean: Nuggets regardless.

Hawks at Suns (+5, 211.5)

Atlanta concludes a five-game road trip here and has dropped the past three, most recently a very competitive 105-100 defeat at red-hot Golden State on Monday. Dennis Schroder scored 24 points for the Hawks, and Dwight Howard added 14 points and 16 rebounds. The Hawks dropped to 4-1 on the second night of back-to-backs. Phoenix lost 120-114 at home to Denver on Sunday. Eric Bledsoe had a career-high 35 in the loss. Jared Dudley missed the game with left foot soreness, and T.J. Warren sat due to a "mild" head injury. The Suns and Hawks split the series last season with the home team winning each.

Key trends: The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-0 in the last five.

Early lean: Suns and under.

Pacers at Trail Blazers (-7, 217.5)

Portland lost 130-114 at home to Houston on Sunday. CJ McCollum scored 28 points and Damian Lillard had 27 for the Blazers, who have lost six of their last eight games. Portland has scored at least 100 points in 17 of 19 games this season. Sans George, Indiana crushed the visiting Clippers 91-70 on Sunday. Glenn Robinson III and Myles Turner each had 17 points. Portland swept the season series from Indiana last year, and has now won four consecutive games against the Pacers. The Blazers have won the past seven home meetings.

Key trends: The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 10-2 in Portland's past 12 after a loss.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday’s games

Philly lost its last four games (1-3 vs spread); they’re 4-8 at home, 8-4 vs spread as a home underdog. Over is 9-4 in Sixers’ last 13 games. Kings are 3-6 on road, 1-0 as road favorite; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. 76ers won six of last nine games with Sacramento (8-1 vs spread); over is 3-0-1 in last four. Kings won two of last three visits here, in series where road team won five of last seven in series.

Memphis won seven of last nine games- they won/covered last six road games (3-3 as road underdog). Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Raptors won/covered their last three games; they’re 5-3 at home, 4-2 as a home favorite. Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Toronto won five of last six games with Memphis; Grizzlies lost last three visits here, by 13-4-13 points. Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.

Detroit won three of its last four games; they’re 2-8 on road (2-6 as a road underdog) after win in Charlotte last night. Three of their last four games went over. Boston won four of last five games; all four wins were on road; they’re 4-3 at home, 3-2 as a home favorite. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Celtics won three of last four games with Detroit, with all four staying under total. Pistons won two of last three visits here.

Washington won three of its last four games; they’re 1-5 on road, 1-2 as a road underdog. Three of their last four games stayed under. Oklahoma City won/covered its last three games; they’re 7-4 at home, 6-4 as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Thunder won six of last seven games with Washington; three of last four series games stayed under total. Wizards lost last four visits here (1-2-1 vs spread), losing by 16-7-1-23 points.

New York lost its last four road games, is 1-6 away from home, 2-5 as road underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. Minnesota lost five of last six games, is 3-5 at home, 3-1 as a home favorite (favorites 7-1 vs spread). Three of Wolves’ last four games went over. Knicks are 7-3 in their last ten games with Minnesota; four of last six series games went over total. New York won four of last five visits to Twin Cities.

LA Lakers lost five of last seven games; they’re 3-6 on road, 0-3 vs spread in last three. Four of last five LA games stayed under total. Bulls haven’t played since Friday; they’ve won six of last eight games, are 3-1 as home favorites. Under is 4-2 in their last six games. Lakers lost eight of last ten games with Chicago; Bulls covered five of last series games. Lakers lost their last four visits here (1-3 vs spread). Last four series games went over total.

San Antonio lost at home to the Magic last nite; they’re 9-1 in last 10 games, 10-0 on road, 8-1 as a road favorite. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Dallas lost eight of last nine games, is 2-4 at home, 1-4 as a home dog. Over is 3-1 in their last four games. Spurs won their last six games with Dallas (4-2 vs spread); San Antonio beat Macs by 5 at home nine days ago- they won won last visits here by 26-5 points. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Heat lost four of last five games; they’re 3-5 on road, 4-3 as road underdogs. Three of last four Miami games went over the total. Denver is 3-2 in last five home games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-2 as home favorites. Over is 5-2 in Nuggets’ last seven games. Miami won six of last eight games with Nuggets, but Denver covered four of last six. Heat won three of last four visits here (under 3-1), with wins by 5-3-3 points.

Atlanta lost six of its last seven games, is 4-6 on road, 2-1 as a road favorite; Hawks’ last nine games stayed under the total. Suns lost four of last five games, are 2-5 at home, 3-1 as a home underdog. Four of last five Phoenix games stayed under total. Hawks won three of last four games with Phoenix, but lost three of last four visits to desert; home side won six of last eight series games. Last five series games stayed under total.

Indiana lost three of last four games; they’re 1-5 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Trailblazers lost six of last eight games; they’re 5-4 at home, 4-2 as a home favorite. Four of last five Blazer games went over total. Portland won six of last seven games with Indiana (6-1 vs spread); Pacers lost last four visits here (1-3 vs spread) by 20-6-6-12 points. Over is 4-2 in last six series games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA*|*MIAMI*at*DENVER
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%)
46-18*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
2-1*this year.**(*66.7%*|*0.9 units*)

NBA*|*ATLANTA*at*PHOENIX
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half
89-43*since 1997.**(*67.4%*|*39.7 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*-0.5 units*)

NBA*|*INDIANA*at*PORTLAND
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more
59-26*over the last 5 seasons.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
7-5*this year.**(*58.3%*|*1.5 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Tough road ahead for Pacers'

Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers November 30, 10:00 EST

Indiana Pacers off back-2-back 20 point home wins over Nets and most recently Clippers hit the road for a five game swing starting in Portland.

The road has not been kind to Indiana. The Pacers have one win in six attempts away this season (1-5 ATS) and are just 4-8 last twelve on enemy hardwood (3-9 ATS). Even more eye-opening are Indiana's struggles in Portland. The Pacers have lost seven consecutive against Blazers at the Moda Center posting a cash-draining 2-4-1 record against the betting line.

Indiana without Paul George (20.8) and C.J. Miles (13.0) consider Portland. The Blazers have a habit of responding against the betting line in the situation they find themselves Wednesday night. The Blazers are 9-2 ATS off a loss facing a team off a win a money-making 7-1 ATS stretch following a game against Rockets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Purdue Boilermakers (5-1) at Louisvillen Cardinals (5-1)

Date: November 30, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

LOUISVILLE, Ken. -- It's out of the frying pan and into the fire for No. 14 Louisville.

Just days after taking on a challenging slate in one of the toughest in-season tournaments in the country at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, the Cardinals (5-1) return to the KFC Yum! Center Wednesday night for a showdown vs. No. 15 Purdue during the annual ACC-Big Ten Challenge.

Louisville coach Rick Pitino knows the Boilermakers (5-1) will be a tall test for his team.

"We are going to play two teams from the Big Ten and I think Purdue is one of the favorites to win it," Pitino said. "They have a veteran team and they have tremendous size. ... They also shoot it really well from the one, two and three spots. They have a good inside attack and a good outside attack, and they have always been a good man-to-man defensive team."

Purdue's front line includes 7-foot-2, 290-pound center Isaac Haas, 6-9 Caleb Swanigan and 6-8 Vincent Edwards. Pitino said Purdue's strength is more than just height.

"We have a couple of 7-footers as well, but Anas (Mahmoud) is 7-foot, 220. Haas is 7-foot-2, 290," Pitino explained. "That's a big difference. And Swanigan, he's 6-9 and 260 and uses his size well. We are likely going to have to play (7-1, 245-pound reserve) Matz (Stockman) more to counter their size."

Purdue started the season with a 109-65 win over McNeese State before taking on Top 5 Villanova in a 79-76 loss that went down to the final possession. The Boilermakers have rebounded with wins over Georgia State, Utah State, Auburn and NJIT.

Purdue coach Matt Painter said he's looking forward to the challenge at Louisville.

"Their overall length and athleticism is what stands out," Painter said. "There's times when you have to swallow your pride when they have two or three people on the basketball. I've been shocked ... at the times people keep trying to challenge them when they swarm the basketball, and been impressed with their ability to defend and their ability to use their length - not just at the rim, but contesting shots."

Louisville started the season with three straight blowout wins over Evansville, William & Mary and Long Beach State, before heading to the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis. After beating Old Dominion 68-62 in overtime to start the tournament, Louisville beat Wichita State 62-52 and had a 22-point lead on No. 9 Baylor before falling 66-63 in the title game.

"This is the first team I have had in a while where the players dislike losing as much as the coaches do," Pitino said. "They were very disappointed in losing to Baylor...but they got back to work this week."

Swarming defenses like Louisville's have been an issue for Purdue in the past. Villanova certainly used pressure defense to frustrate the Boilermakers, and Purdue fell victim to the University of Arkansas - Little Rock in the NCAA Tournament last season due, in large part, to not handling UALR's full-court pressure.

To combat that issue, Painter has been getting grad assistants involved wearing white shirts in practice. Those extra defenders are immune from fouls and are tasked with making life difficult for ball-handlers.

"We can't have the (turnover) numbers we have and expect to beat good people - we just can't," Painter said. "I like our matchup against anyone if we give ourselves a chance. If we're constantly in transition because we try to take on two or three guys and are turning it over, I don't like that matchup. I don't like our matchup against anybody in transition."

The Boilermakers are learning.

"If you show you're going to struggle with it and be careless with the ball, you're going to get pressed," point guard P.J. Thompson said. "But the first few times they press you, if you really show them you're good and it's not going to bother us and you get the ball in the frontcourt, it lays off a little bit."

Painter said scheduling games against teams like Louisville or Villanova isn't easy, but they will provide long-term benefits for his team.

"It's hard to schedule games of this nature," Painter said. "Everyone's going to play in the Big 10-ACC Challenge, the Crossroads Classic, things of that nature. Not everyone wants to play on the road, even if you do a home and home."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels (7-0) at Indiana Hoosiers (4-1)

Date: November 30, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. - No. 13 Indiana will try to summon karma from its banner-hoisting past when hosting No. 3 North Carolina Wednesday night in a nationally televised ACC/Big Ten Challenge clash.

The Hoosiers' 1981 National Championship team, which defeated the Tar Heels in the title game, will be honored in a halftime ceremony. That Bob Knight squad had Isiah Thomas, Randy Wittman, Ray Tolbert and Landon Turner, among others.

Problem is, those guys can't suit up against the latest Tar Heels (7-0), who are fresh off three wins by an average of 30.3 points at the Maui Invitational including a 71-56 finale over Wisconsin on Nov. 23. North Carolina's path to finishing last season as an NCAA Tournament runner-up included a 101-86 victory over Indiana in the Sweet Sixteen at Philadelphia.

"I'm not going to go out and make my reservations for the Final Four," Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams said after the Wisconsin win. "I've never seen a national championship won the day before Thanksgiving. It's usually won that first Monday night in April."

He would know. He celebrated national titles in 2005 and 2009.

Indiana (4-1), ranked third before losing in overtime at Fort Wayne and dropping 10 spots, could be without its leading scorer in junior guard James Blackmon Jr., who is questionable with a left knee injury. The 20.5-point scorer, who also leads the team in 3-pointers with 15 out of 32 attempted (.469), missed Sunday's 85-52 home rout of Mississippi Valley State.

Blackmon has a lengthy history of significant knee injuries. He tore his left ACL in high school, meniscus in the same knee early in his college career and last year the right ACL prior to the Big Ten opener and missed the rest of the season.

"This afternoon, I go run, and I come through the weight room at the end before I go home to change, and there he is in the weight room doing his leg exercises,' Indiana head coach Tom Crean said after Sunday's win. "He's very, very diligent on getting himself ready. He's been through a lot. Been through a lot before he even got here.

"So we've just got to make sure that we're patient with him and help him get through that part of it, and he'll know his body. He's certainly got great support here, and he'll get that. And we'll just see how the next few days go.'

While the Hoosiers average 88.6 points scored and have allowed 69.6 per game, the Tar Heels sport a 92.9-point average while allowing 65.6. Both teams shoot 3-pointers well - Indiana has made 51 of 128 (.398) while North Carolina has hit 47 of 120 (.392).

Five Tar Heels average in double digits, led by junior guard Joel Berry II at 17.1 points per game. Berry has a team-high 16 3-pointers and was just named ACC Player of the Week for a second time in this young season.

Tar Heels junior forward/guard Justin Jackson averages 15.4 points with 11 3-pointers. Senior forward Isaiah Hicks checks in at 14.6 points and senior forward Kennedy Meeks averages 13.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.

"We're not perfect," Hicks said. "We have to polish some things, especially on the offensive side. We need to move more and get a little better spacing. Sometimes we get caught standing there. And we always have to keep up our defensive intensity and effort."

Indiana sophomore forward OG Anunoby bounced back from a flu-shortened scoreless game with a career-high 21 points Sunday to boost his scoring average to 11.8 points. The preseason All-American also grabs 6.2 rebounds per game.

Hoosiers junior guard Robert Johnson averages 13.8 points and sophomore center Thomas Bryant averages 13.6 points and 8.2 rebounds.

Crean, the 2016 Big Ten Coach of the Year, is matching wits against one of the all-time greats in Williams, a 29th-year Hall of Famer whose 790-209 record ranks eighth on the career win list. Crean has spent half of his 18 seasons at Indiana and has a 342-216 overall record.

Indiana has an 8-6 series advantage including 2-1 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Since 2011-12, Indiana has five wins against top-three opponents, which ties for second behind Duke's six.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) at Virginia Cavaliers (6-0)

Date: November 30, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

Sixth-ranked Virginia has never missed an ACC-Big Ten Challenge. This week marks the 18th annual battle between teams from two of the top conferences in the country, as the Cavaliers enter their matchup Wednesday night with Ohio State in Charlottesville, Va. riding a two-game win streak in the competition.

On the flip side, the Buckeyes have dropped two straight in the challenge and take on Virginia for the second straight season.

Virginia knocked off Ohio State in Columbus 64-58 last year behind 22 points from Malcolm Brogdon, who now plays for the Milwaukee Bucks. Point guard London Perrantes missed last season's game after an appendectomy but will be at full strength this season. Perrantes is coming off of a tournament MVP award at the Emerald Coast Classic last weekend that saw the Cavaliers take home the title with wins over Iowa and Providence.

Providence head coach Ed Cooley had high praise for the 6-foot-2 senior point guard.

"He might be one of the most poised basketball players I have ever seen play the game of basketball," Cooley said after the Friars' loss to the Cavaliers.

Perrantes put in 11 points, grabbed eight rebounds and dished out five assists to help Virginia stay unbeaten at 6-0 this season.

Ohio State is coming off of a 41-point win over Marshall on Friday and also enters Wednesday night's game at 6-0. The Buckeyes have spread the wealth so far this season as they boast six players averaging at least 10 points per game. Thad Matta's squad is led by Jae'Sean Tate who is scoring at a 14 points per game clip and is pulling down seven rebounds per game. He will be a handful for Virginia's frontcourt.

The Buckeyes will likely not come close to their 111-point outing against Marshall as Virginia enters Wednesday with the nation's top scoring defense. Providence scored 52 points against the Cavaliers and became the highest-scoring Virginia opponent this season. Iowa managed just 41 points against the Cavaliers in Friday night's game after they came in averaging 94 points per game. The Hawkeyes followed up that performance by scoring 92 points against Memphis.

Bottom line is, Virginia's defense is already in mid-season form just six games into the season.

Ohio State ranks 33rd in the country in rebounding as they pull down and average of 41 per game but they might be tested by a Virginia team that is outrebounding its opponents by 13.

Bench scoring has been a key for the Cavaliers and it should continue to be as Perrantes and guard Darius Thompson became the first starters to lead the Cavaliers in scoring when they tallied 11 points apiece against Providence. Freshman Kyle Guy continues to shine for Virginia as he provides a spark off of the bench for Tony Bennett's team.

The Cavaliers look to improve on their 10-6 record in the challenge while Ohio State looks to even up its 7-8 record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Texas Southern Tigers (4-2) at Arizona Wildcats (5-1)

Date: November 30, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

Arizona's loss to Butler on Friday night revealed some of the flaws hidden when playing against inferior opponents.

The Wildcats opened the season with a victory over short-handed and youthful Michigan State, but the Bulldogs are a bigger, deeper and more-veteran team. Butler beat Arizona 69-65 in a hard-fought game in the Las Vegas Invitational, which dropped the Wildcats (5-1) from eighth to 16th in the AP poll.

"We're a work in progress," Arizona coach Sean Miller said.

The Wildcats will try to make progress when they faces Texas Southern on Wednesday in Tucson, Ariz. (9 p.m. ET, Pac 12 Network). The Tigers (4-2) were predicted to win the Southwestern Athletic Conference in a preseason vote of league coaches and sports information directors.

This will be the seventh of 16 road games to start the season for the Tigers, who are coming off an 84-73 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette on Sunday. They are coached by Mike Davis, the former head man at Indiana and UAB.

He directed Texas Southern into the NCAA Tournament in 2014 and 2015, the latter appearance resulting in a 93-72 opening-round loss to Arizona in Portland, Ore. That is the only previous matchup between the programs.

The Wildcats return only two players from that team -- point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright and center Dusan Ristic, both juniors. That helps tell the tale of a young team still finding its way this season.

Because of injuries and guard Allonzo Trier's unexplained absence, Miller is working with eight scholarship players. Three are freshman, another is a junior college transfer.

"We lost to a very good basketball team," Miller said Friday night. "Butler will be a team in the NCAA Tournament. They have a lot of experience. They are a little further along at this point than we are with that experience.

"We played through foul trouble. We had to play through some adversity. We didn't play well at times, but our effort was outstanding. That was the most important thing. When you do that, you learn from it."

Trier, who averaged 14.8 points per game as a freshman last season, has not played this season. The school has not commented amid rumors of eligibility issues.

Freshman 7-foot forward Lauri Markkanen has emerged as the team's leading scorer (18.2 points per game), but he was limited by foul trouble against Butler, scoring 15 points in 21 minutes before fouling out.

"He was not able to assert himself," Miller said. "A couple of fouls he probably could have controlled by being where he was supposed to be."

Freshman guard Kobi Simmons (12.7 ppg) and freshman wing Rawle Alkins (10.3 ppg) are the next two top scorers for the Wildcats.

Texas Southern is led in scoring by junior guard Zach Lofton, who has spent time at Illinois State and Minnesota. He is averaging 20.5 points per game. Another transfer guard, Dulani Robinson from Pacific, is averaging 14.5 points per game.

Derrick Griffin, a 6-7 power forward who won last season's SWAC Player of the Year award, is averaging 12.2 points and 8.8 rebounds. He has been selected All-SWAC in basketball and football (2015, as a receiver), though he was dismissed from the football team this September.

"They're a very good team that can shoot the basketball," Louisiana-Lafayette coach Bob Marlin said of Texas Southern. "They have great players in Lofton and Robinson, and Griffin is an outstanding athlete."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Saint Mary's Gaels (5-0) at Stanford Cardinal (6-1)

Date: November 30, 2016 11:00 PM EDT

Twelfth-ranked Saint Mary's owns the highest ranking in school history this week, and the Gaels (5-0) might even climb into the top 10 next week if they win their game at Stanford on Wednesday (11 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network).

This might be the Gaels' toughest game so far, partly because it will be on their opponent's home court and partly because the Cardinal (6-1) played well in a recent tournament in Orlando, Fla.

Although Stanford lost to Miami (Fla.) in its first game of the AdvoCare Invitational, it rebounded to beat Indiana State 65-62 and Seton Hall 66-52 in its next two games.

First-year Stanford coach Jerod Haase was particularly pleased with the way his team responded after Seton Hall shot out to a 20-10 lead Sunday.

"They punched us in the mouth the first 10 minutes and we kind of stumbled back," Haase said, according to the Bay Area News Group. "I challenged them. I'm so proud of how they bounced back and contained it for the last 30 minutes."

Guard Dorian Pickens was the Stanford star of the two tournament victories, hitting the game-winning 3-pointer against Indiana State and scoring 21 points in the win over Seton Hall.

"Dorian is so smooth, so confident, so fluid," Haase said.

Pickens shoots 50.7 percent overall, 45.2 percent on 3-pointers and 84.6 percent from the foul line. He provides a challenge for Saint Mary's backcourt of Joe Rahon and Emmett Naar, both of whom were all-West Coast Conference selections last season and played a solid game in the Gaels' 76-63 victory over UAB in Las Vegas on Sunday.

"Our guards really did a good job of controlling the game," Saint Mary's coach Randy Bennett said.

Rahon and Naar had seven assists apiece in that game, and both played all 40 minutes.

Naar also made 2 of 3 3-pointers and has hit 54.5 percent of his long-range shots this season. Stefan Gonzalez came off the bench to hit 4 of 6 3-point shots against UAB, improving his season success rate from beyond the arc to 55.6 percent.

"Got some big minutes out of Stef," Bennett said. "He hit some big shots for us."

The Gaels are outstanding shooters, making 39.8 percent of their 3-point shots and 82.7 percent of their free throws, which ranks third in the country.

Despite the strong play of Pickens, Naar and Rahon, the biggest scoring threats of both teams reside in the paint.

Stanford's 6-foot-8 Reid Travis scored in double figures in all seven games and is averaging 17.4 points on 55.4 percent shooting while collecting 10.1 rebounds a game. The Gaels' 6-11 Jock Landale averages 21.0 points (on 76.3 percent shooting) and 9.2 rebounds.

The Cardinal have a second inside presence in Michael Humphrey, an athletic 6-9 post player who has not been as productive as expected. He averages just 7.9 points per game after scoring 10.3 points per game last season.

Stanford's biggest improvement from last season may be at the defensive end. The Cardinal allowed their first seven opponents to shoot just 37 percent from the field after yielding 46 percent shooting during last season's 15-15 campaign, which led to the firing of coach Johnny Dawkins.

Bennett has a reputation for getting the most out of his team defensively, but he is not satisfied by what he is seeing so far. Saint Mary's is allowing opponents to shoot 43.5 percent from the field.

"We had some good stretches tonight (defensively)," Bennett said after the UAB game. "We need more of them. We probably had 25 minutes of good defense; that's got to get closer to 37, 38 minutes, and I think that's where we were last year."

Bennett hopes a healthy Dane Pineau will help. Pineau, a forward and a preseason all-conference selection, missed last week's San Jose State game with back spasms and played only limited minutes in the other four games because of the back issue. He is expected to see more playing time against the Cardinal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Highlanders (2-3) at Bruins (7-0)

Date: November 30, 2016 11:00 PM EDT

UC Riverside-UCLA preview

Two teams with promising young freshmen will meet Wednesday when 11th-ranked UCLA puts its perfect record on the line against UC Riverside at Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles.

UCLA (7-0) won three games in four days last week to win the Wooden Legacy tournament. The Bruins beat Portland 99-77 in the opening round, defeated Nebraska 82-71 in the semifinals and topped Texas A&M 74-67 in the championship game.

UC Riverside (1-3) opened the season with double-digit losses to Portland and UNLV. The Highlanders beat Division II Fresno Pacific 96-50 before suffering an 85-67 loss to Utah.

Freshman guard Lonzo Ball was named MVP of the Wooden tournament after averaging 15.7 points, 9.3 assists and four rebounds for UCLA. He also picked up his first-ever Pac-12 Player of the Week award.

Ball had 18 points and 11 assists in the win over Portland, and he had 16 points, 10 assists and five rebounds against Texas A&M despite struggling at times in the first half.

"I think that's what great players do," UCLA coach Steve Alford said. "We call it 'etch-a-sketch.' You miss a couple shots (and) you have to forget about it. You make a couple bad plays, you have to forget about it. ... He made tremendous plays, and I thought he played way better second half."

UC Riverside coach Dennis Cutts is happy with what he has seen from freshman guard Dikymbe Martin. After scoring a total of nine points in 24 minutes in the first two games, Martin has emerged, posting 41 points, 10 assists and seven steals in the past two games.

Martin came off the bench to post 26 points on 11-of-13 shooting in a win over Fresno Pacific on Nov. 19. Martin made his first career start against Utah in place of Malik Thames, who was home in Sacramento due to an illness in his family. Martin didn't disappoint, finishing with 15 points, five assists, four rebounds and three steals.

"He's a unique freshman in terms of constantly looking for how he can do things better," Cutts said. "He doesn't ever kind of give the sense that he's got it figured out."

The Highlanders will have to figure out how to defend UCLA, which scored 99 points or more in four of its first five games. The Bruins are leading the nation in field-goal percentage (54.7) and assists per game (24.1). They are third in scoring, averaging 96.9 points per game.

UCLA has six players scoring in double figures. T.J. Leaf, another promising freshman, averages 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per contest. Bryce Alford averages 17 points, Isaac Hamilton 16.7, Aaron Holiday 12.1 and Thomas Welsh 10.6.

Martin is leading UC Riverside in scoring at 12.5 points per game. Thames averages 12.3 points and 4.7 rebounds. Chance Murray is averaging 12 points.

UCLA is 4-0 all-time against UC Riverside. The Bruins beat the Highlanders 77-66 in their last meeting in December 2014. This will be UCLA's final tune-up before the team visits top-ranked Kentucky on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'College Hoops'

Ohio St. at Virginia November 30, 9:15 EST

When Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio State Buckeyes meet John Paul Jones Arena buckets will be at a premium. Virginia and Ohio State are both solid at keeping the ball out of their own basket. Defense the moniker for Cavaliers are allowing a nation-best 41.3 points/game. The Buckeyes are keep their opponents scrounging for buckets allowing 58.8 points/contest. Consider 'Under' - Cavaliers 15-3 'Under' L18, 6-1 'Under' vs Big Ten, Buckeyes 4-1-1 'Under' vs. ACC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Wednesday’s games

Virginia Tech is 5-1 with 68-65 loss to Texas A&M on neutral floor last week; Hokies beat New Mexico/Nebraska in that tourney, are 2-1 vs top 100 teams. Tech is making 40% of 3’s, is #14 in country at protecting ball- they don’t start a senior (two sophs, two juniors). Michigan is 5-1 with a 61-49 loss at South Carolina; Wolverines have good wins over Marquette, SMU on neutral floor- they’re playing one of 10 slowest tempos in US, start two sophs, two seniors.

Purdue is 5-1 with 79-76 home loss to Villanova; they don’t have any top 100 wins. Boilers are great inside for a college team but can their guards handle Louisville’s defense? Purdue has #7 eFG% despite turning ball over 21.2% (#257) of time- they do make 41.5% on arc. Louisville is 5-1 after losing finals of Atlantis tourney to Baylor; Cardinals blew a 32-10 lead in that game. Cardinals forces turnovers 22% of time, has #4 eFG% defense in country.

TCU sprinted out to 24-8 lead in first 10:00 beat Washington 93-80 in Las Vegas four nights ago; now teams play again at TCU. Horned Frogs were 27-33 on line; both teams shot 53%+ inside arc, but both teams turned ball over 18 times. TCU is 6-0 with two top 100 wins, (other was over Illinois St); they forcing turnovers 25.3% of time, making 40.4% on arc. Washington is playing first true road game- their best win was over #168 Long Beach State. Huskies are #340 experience team in country.

St Joe’s beat Temple last two years by total of 3 points; they needed OT to beat the Owls in LY’s game. Hawks haven’t played in nine days since losing 2 of 3 in Virgin Islands tourney; they’re #296 experience team. St Joe’s is forcing turnovers 22.4% of time but missed departed star Bombay, who left early for NBA. Temple beat Florida State/West Va over weekend in NYC, in pair of great upsets- Owls are missing two of their best guards this season. Temple scored 52-67 points in its losses, 81+ in all four wins.

Middle Tennessee State is 6-1, beating UNCW by 5 in its only top 100 game; they lost at home to #137 Tennessee State, best team in OVC. Blue Raiders are #40 in experience; they’re forcing* turnovers 22.4% of time, are playing pace #288. MTSU upset Auburn of SEC LY.- this is their first true road game of season. Ole Miss are 5-1 with 86-77 loss to Creighton in Virgin Island semis; Rebels’ best win is over #133 UMass. Ole Miss is #55 experience playing #48 pace- they start 3 juniors, 2 seniors. Middle Tennessee starts two juniors, two seniors.

Nebraska played in southern California Thurs-Sun, going 1-2, losing to UCLA by 11, Va Tech by 13; now they’re 3,000 miles east, playing Clemson team that is 3-2 with losses to Oklahoma, Xavier on neutral floor 10 days ago in Florida. Tigers are #11 experience team whose bench has played 2nd-fewest minutes in country- they’re playing #248 pace as a result. First true road game for Cornhuskers, who start four sophs- they’re shooting only 31.1% on the arc.

BYU is playing #3 pace in country; they lost last two games, to #74 Valpo in Las Vegas and at home to #256 Utah Valley, while making only 32% on arc. Cougars beat Utah State last three years by 12-10-11 points- they start a freshman/two sops but remember because of missions, their guys are little older than other teams’ guys. Utah State lost to Purdue/Texas Tech by 21-24 on its Cancun trip; Aggies are #235 experience- they’ve slipped since coach Morrill walked away at end of 2015 season.

Colorado won four of last five games with Colorado State; I’ll never advocate to give Eustachy 15 points, though. Buffs are 5-1, losing to Notre Dame by 6 on neutral floor, beating by Texas by 14 night after that game. Colorado is #51 experience team that has #13 eFG% defense- they’re starting four seniors, one junior. State has played 9th-easiest schedule in country, losing by 7 at Stanford in only road game. Rams are 5-1, but are turning ball over 21.8% of time, making 27.4% on arc.

North Carolina is 7-0 with three top 80 wins (Chattanooga/Okla St/Wisconsin) and road win at Hawai’i; Tar Heels are rebounding 46.6% of their own misses (#2 in country)- they beat Indiana by 15 in NCAAs last spring, making 11-20 on arc (Indiana was 13-31 in 71-possession game). First game in a week for UNC, which starts two juniors, two seniors. Indiana beat Kansas in OT on neutral floor, then lost in OT at Ft Wayne last week. Hoosiers are turning ball over 23.4% of time.

Virginia is 6-0 with two top 80 wins, by 33-11 points over Iowa/Providence; Cavaliers have #1 eFG% defense in country- they’re also playing slowest tempo in nation- they start three juniors, one senior. Virginia made 8-16 on arc in 64-58 win at Ohio State LY. Buckeyes are 6-0 so far vs schedule #321; their best win is over #56 Providence by 5 at home. OSU has #20 eFG% defense but is shooting 59.5% on foul line; four of their six wins are against teams outside top 200.

St Marys has its whole team back from LY; game like this will be important for them when NCAA bids are handed out in March. Gaels are 5-0 with a 61-57 win at Dayton; they beat UAB by 13 in Vegas over weekend. St Mary’s is experienced team that plays slow tempo and does not sub much- they’re shooting 62.9% inside arc (#1 in US). Stanford’s coach was UAB’s coach LY, so he got good scouting report from them I’m sure; Cardinal won 2 of 3 in Orlando over weekend, with only loss to Miami by 14.

Fort Wayne lost its two road games, by 9 at Arkansas, by 18 at Illinois State but their OT win at home over Indiana will be remembered in their town for long time. Mastodons start couple of sophs, two seniors; they beat Austin Peay 85-68 at home LY, making 12-26 on arc in game they trailed 33-29 at halftime. Governors lost by 28 at Dayton in their only top 200 game; they’re 2-2 vs D-I teams, with two other wins over stiffs. Austin Peay starts three seniors but beat Delaware in game by 1 when they led by 15 with 9:29 left.

UNLV’s interim coach LY was Todd Simon, who did admirable job in getting patchwork group of Rebels thru to end of season; now he is head coach at Southern Utah, which is 0-4 vs D-I teams, with losses by 11-15-12-14 points (they beat two stiffs). He won’t recognize many UNLV kids; they only have 3 or 4 guys back from LY. First road game for inexperienced UNLV team that is 4-2, with no top 200 wins, but SUU is #338 so that doesn’t matter here. First road games are only dicey but Rebels have better players.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed on Sunday with “All Others” the betting favorite at 6-5 while Classic Empire was the shortest price among the 23 separate betting interests at 6-1.

Classic Empire won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his last outing and is sitting on top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Points standings with 30.

Churchill Downs has four future betting pools for the Run for the Roses and with it being 2017 and all you would think they would spruce up the technology and offer more than 24 betting interests.

That makes it tough to catch a big price on horse outside of the 23 top betting interests since they are all pooled together under “All Others.”

The current favorite is Classic Empire, who is at 6-1, followed by Mastery at 9-1 and McCracken at 10-1.

There are odds on nearly 200 horses, which can lead to some big prices, with dozens of horses at odds of 200-1 or higher, and the price is locked in when you make the wager.

In the Churchill Downs pools, the odds are fixed when the pool closes on each Sunday. So, you can make a wager on Thursday and watch the odds go lower by Sunday.

The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race is the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 10.

Current Betting Odds for the 2017 Kentucky Derby:
Classic Empire 6-1
Mastery 9-1
McCraken 10-1
Beach Bum 15-1
Gunnevera 15-1
Irish War Cry 15-1
Uncontested 15-1
Fact Finding 20-1
Mo Town 20-1
No Dozing 20-1
Practical Joke 20-1


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#4 Carradine 2-1
#3 Control Group 8-5
#1 Silky Way / 1a Can You Diggit 7-2
#5 Horoscope 8-1

Analysis: Carradine was beaten just a nose in a game debut for a $40,000 tag and then last out on a race washed off the turf on a wet track he regressed slightly in a fourth-place finish. The runner up and third place finisher both came back to graduate in their next starts. He should handle a one turn mile and a wet track, out of a Maria's Mon mare that has dropped two winners. Rice is 25% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Control Group tracked the early pace and finished up well in a runner up finish last out, beaten 2 1/4 lengths for the top spot. The third-place finisher Heavy Meddle returned to graduate in his next outing on Nov. 26 against state maiden special weight foes. The Contessa trainee came back with a bullet work on Nov. 27. He is bred to handle a wet track, by Posse out of a Victory Gallop mare.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:14 ET)
#5 Storm Petrel 5-1
#6 Scarlet Goddess 8-1
#10 Wildcat Belle 4-1
#9 Sing for Beauty 5-1

Analysis: Storm Petrel tracked the early pace and drew off in the stretch to a sharp win against $25,000 non-winners of two in her first trip over the main track here. The switch back to dirt seems to have suited this gal and she is bred to handle a wet track, by Congrats out of a Storm Cat mare. She looks primed for a good effort here third off the bench for Pletcher.

Scarlet Goddess makes her first start since July where she was beaten just a nose on turf going a mile at the Spa against $40,000 non-winners of two. The winner Annie Rocks came back to beat $50,000 non-winners of three and then beat $50,000 starter allowance foes in her next two outings. The Gullo barn is 14% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 5,6,9,10
TRI: 5,6 / 5,6,9,10 / 2,5,6,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #5 Horoscope 8-1
R2: #5 Star of the Forest 12-1
R3: #2 Fullback Foye 8-1
R4: #1 Howlin Md Smith 10-1
R6: #6 Forest Boy 8-1
R7: #6 Scarlet Goddess 8-1
R8: #1 Tiz Shea D 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 91 - Purse:$11500 - NW $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW10500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 7 BADIX HANOVER 2/1
# 4 FIRE IN THE BELLY 10/1
# 3 FAN OF TERROR 3/1

After thorough analysis by the consortium, BADIX HANOVER comes out as the top selection. He has been competing strongly and the speed figs are among the most favorable in the group. The 94 average class statistic may give this gelding a distinct advantage in the bunch. Going to post admirably, earned a sharp TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent race (94). FIRE IN THE BELLY - The 4 hole is on fire here at Harrah's Philadelphia. More wins than the expected average. FAN OF TERROR - Has good TrackMaster Speed Ratings and very likely has to be thought of for a wager this time. Earned a 91 speed fig last out. A duplicate affair here should get the triumph in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6000 - THE `OVER THE HILL GANG` FOR 8-YEAR-OLDS AND UP - NON-WINNERS OF $30,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 ADENIUM 9/5
# 3 SOUTHWIND VOLTAGE 8/1
# 5 SING OUT 9/1

The pick here is ADENIUM. If performance in the most recent contest is any indicator, this race horse will have a very respectable shot for this race. High last race speed rating. Talk about a dynamic duo, Hennessey and Gilmour have some of the best driver-handler ratings at the track. The panel of smart guys has Hennessey on its list of drivers who are en fuego recently. Last 30 days win stat is excellent. SOUTHWIND VOLTAGE - Considered a solid wager based solely on his high triumph pct. He has very nice class statistics, averaging 83. Could be considered for a bet in this one. SING OUT - Starters win from this position at Pompano Park with better than average regularity, suggesting this magnificent bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 65

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 TIZ BLESSED ONE 5/2

# 9 TOUGH TO THE BONE 7/2

# 8 SCOOT TOO 5/1

I favor TIZ BLESSED ONE here. Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. The Equibase Speed Figure of 63 from his last race looks decent in here. He has decent class ratings, averaging 67, and has to be carefully examined in this race. TOUGH TO THE BONE - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. He has garnered respectable numbers under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. SCOOT TOO - This pony has a wonderful win percentage in dirt sprints. Looks formidable to be up on the lead at the first call.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.; , 126 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 DSS SISSYS JET 5/1

# 4 ROGUE TO RICHES 6/1

# 2 TEE MATA 6/1

DSS SISSYS JET looks to be a solid contender. Maldonado will most likely be able to get this colt to break out quickly in here. He has a good opportunity in this competition as trainer, Touchet, has sharp win clip with horses going this distance. ROGUE TO RICHES - Vaunts sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. The tandem of Ramirez/Weeks has one of the most competitive ROI percentages in this field. TEE MATA - He has garnered very good numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this field. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 68 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 3:14pm - Starter Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#10 WILDCAT BELLE (ML=4/1)
#5 STORM PETREL (ML=5/1)
#4 AVERY MAEVE (ML=10/1)
#9 SING FOR BEAUTY (ML=5/1)


WILDCAT BELLE - I think the shorter distance will help this filly stay the distance. The rider/handler tandem of Carmouche and Gargan has a strong ROI together. I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a horse coming back off a strong race within the last 30 days. Already competed against today's M/L choice on Nov 4th at Aqueduct and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here in this race. STORM PETREL - Shipped in on November 10th to take the money here. Take right back again. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a sharp contest last time around the track within the last month or so. Filly is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a nice effort today. AVERY MAEVE - You'll be making money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this rider/handler combination. That 88 fig this filly recorded in her last event tells me she's a key player this time. This horse wins a lot of dough per race. I believe she will add to that bankroll right here. Came home fast in the last race at Belmont Park. That type of move bodes well for her chances in this race. SING FOR BEAUTY - Baker gets a break on this horse carrying 10 pounds less than last out. This should help in today's race. All systems look good for this filly. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. Recent speed ratings show solid pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BAGEMA (ML=3/1), #8 SAME KINDA CRAZY (ML=8/1), #6 SCARLET GODDESS (ML=8/1),

BAGEMA - The fourth place result in the last race was not the greatest. SAME KINDA CRAZY - Tough to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much speed in the race. SCARLET GODDESS - No success for this questionable contender in a short distance event over the last two months tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #10 WILDCAT BELLE on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,5,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#5 SAGE MASTER (ML=8/1)
#7 TALLAWAH (ML=7/2)
#6 BROOK'S BAY B (ML=5/2)
#3 SUCCESSFUL PLAN (ML=8/1)


SAGE MASTER - The rider and handler combination have a beneficial ROI when they combine forces. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Mountaineer Park. TALLAWAH - Using this jock/conditioner combination is a good decision. The 59 most recent race speed rating looks mighty good on paper. BROOK'S BAY B - When this jock and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Cruz and Inirio have been wonderful together. Jock hops right back aloft after getting to know the magnificent animal by riding in the last race. That's always a good indicator. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a nice race last race out within the last month. SUCCESSFUL PLAN - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the initial time on November 23rd. Should be in touch with the equine even better in this race. The outside draw didn't help this horse's chances last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Today's inside post should be just fine.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 PURE TRUST (ML=4/1), #2 GIVEEMDAHEATER (ML=6/1), #1 EYE TO THRILL (ML=8/1),

PURE TRUST - This runner didn't go to the front end and didn't make up ground in the homestretch last time he ran. GIVEEMDAHEATER - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. EYE TO THRILL - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit of late.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #5 SAGE MASTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

5 with [3,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

5 with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

5 with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #6 - AQUEDUCT - 2:47 PM EASTERN POST

7.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 CLAIMING $25,000.00 PURSE

#5 FRAZIL
#8 ONECATS CHANCE
#4 CASTAWAY
#6 FOREST BOY

#5 FRAZIL has won 10 times in his career to date in dirt sprints, takes a class drop (-9), is the pace profile leader in this field, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+10) in his 2nd race back. Jockey Javier Castellano was in his irons for that win, back in September at Belmont park, and is here at Aqueduct today for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #8 ONECATS CHANCE, the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in three of his respective last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 5th race back.