Who's Next in Gainesville?
By Brian Edwards
The Will Muschamp Era at the University of Florida came to an end early Sunday, less than 24 hours after the Gators suffered a second unfathomable loss at home this season.
The first came to LSU in October when UF dropped a touchdown pass, gave up a bomb on 3rd and 25, threw an interception while nearly in field-goal range and gave up a 50-yard game-winning field with three seconds remaining. All of those aforementioned mistakes came in the final three minutes of a game the Gators had no business losing.
A similar array of mind-boggling errors occurred Saturday against the Gamecocks. A holding call wiped out a Treon Harris TD run that would've put UF ahead by a 24-10 score with about two minutes left. Moments later, South Carolina blocked a field goal.
But UF's defense, as it had all day against one of the SEC's most prolific offenses and for nearly all of Muschamp's four-year tenure, got a stop that should've ensured the victory. The Gators couldn't get a game-icing first down, however, and were forced to punt with about 35 seconds remaining.
South Carolina had zero timeouts left so as long as the punt got off, Steve Spurrier's offense would need to go about 75-85 yards in 30 seconds. If the Gamecocks were fortunate, they'd get to about midfield and have a chance for a Hail Mary play.
UF, which hasn't blocked a kick in 19 games, couldn't get the punt off, though. In fact, in what had to be a max-protect scenario, a South Carolina player came right up the middle untouched to make the block.
Several plays later, Spurrier took a huge risk. On second down, Florida was expecting a pass because a failed run would mean the end of the game. Surely Spurrier would throw to ensure two more chances, right?
Wrong. From the far hash, Spurrier called an option play. Granted, it was to the short side, so Mike Davis might have a chance to go out of bounds to stop the clock if he couldn't get in the end zone.
Dylan Thompson moved left and made a late pitch to Davis, who bobbled the ball and it bounced into the end zone. During Muschamp's reign in Gainesville, not many bounces have gone his way.
Naturally, this one didn't either. Davis recovered for a touchdown. In overtime, the offense couldn't muster a first down -- naturally. It settled for a field goal and a 20-17 UF lead.
Several plays later, Thompson scampered into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown. From the beginning to the bitter end, Muschamp couldn't catch a break.
In Year 1, senior QB John Brantley was injured in the first half of a close game against Alabama when UF was sporting a 4-0 record. Brantley would be out for a month and was never really healthy again until leading the Gators to a New Year's Day bowl win over Ohio St.
In Year 2, Muschamp led UF to an 11-1 regular-season record and it missed out on playing for the national title by one game. And, some could argue, if USC's Matt Barkley would've been health for that one game against Notre Dame, the Trojans would've beaten the Irish to send the Gators to Miami to face 'Bama for all the marbles.
In Year 3, everybody got hurt, including the top two QBs. The rash of injuries was so catastrophic that even a loss to Georgia Southern was looked over by AD Jeremy Foley and any rational/sane Gator fan (I concede that doesn't account for the majority).
Everyone, Muschamp included, knew 2014 was the make-or-break campaign. And the Gators lost to LSU and South Carolina at home by inventing ways to lose, not to mention falling to Missouri by a 42-13 count at The Swamp.
Spurrier lost five games by 25 combined points in his 12-year tenure at UF. Muschamp lost to Missouri by 29 points. Muschamp lost six of his last eight home games.
That just about covers it. There's no need to get into how inept the offense has been for five years running, including the last season of Urban Meyer's tenure.
Muschamp is a good man and a brilliant defensive mind. He stated at his intro presser that "there are no five-year plans in the SEC," so he understands the reality of what Foley was forced to do. Muschamp will be one of the country's highest-paid defensive coordinators next season, and he'll get another quality head-coaching gig in the next 3-4 years, maybe sooner.
I've said many times that Foley has more job security than any other AD in America, but that's not the case anymore. UF has a new incoming president with zero ties to Foley.
He has made four significant hires since taking over as AD nearly a quarter-century ago. The first was Billy Donovan, perhaps the greatest hire in the history of college basketball. The second was Ron Zook, a predictable bust. The third was Meyer, who Foley beat Notre Dame to by making the early call to can Zook. The fourth was Muschamp.
If Foley misses on this hire, he'll be batting 2-for-5 (.400). But this isn't baseball and a .400 average doesn't get you to the Hall of Fame. It gets you a ticket out of Gainesville.
Foley can't roll the dice here. Zook and Muschamp had never been head coaches before, so you know Foley will only go the route of a proven winner.
Bovada has made odds for the next Florida head coach. Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy is the 4/1 'chalk.' He has turned down Tennessee and Arkansas before, but those flirtations verified a reported riff between he and his AD, one that T-Boone Pickens has worked hard to massage.
Gundy can be had in my opinion, but he won't be the first choice. Foley has made hard runs at Oklahoma's Bob Stoops in 2002 and 2004, but the timing wasn't right. From everything I've gathered, Foley didn't even look Stoops's way during the search that landed Muschamp, so maybe he won't give Stoops a chance to say no for a third time?
Then again, the timing seems perfect here. And, as noted above, Foley is under more pressure this time. Most important, Stoops is under pressure to win at OU now, and a fresh start less than 90 minutes from his Florida beach home could be just what the doctor ordered to revive his coaching juices. Bovada has Stoops with 11/2 odds.
Colorado State's Jim McElwain has the second-shortest odds (9/2), but I don't see that happening. Mullen, the coach at Mississippi State who was the OC at UF for three years, shares 11/2 odds with Stoops. He has the Bulldogs contending for a CFP berth and called the plays for the 2006 and 2008 national-title teams.
I think Mullen can be had, but I don't think he's at the top of Foley's wish list. In fact, according to Yahoo's Pat Forde, there was friction between Mullen and Foley during his days at UF.
If I'm Foley, Hugh Freeze is No. 1 on my wish list. There's a check next to Freeze's name for every variable Foley is looking for. Freeze is a proven winner at a place not known for winning unless a Manning was under center. He's an offensive mind and a dynamic recruiter.
But Freeze is from Oxford, has the Rebels rolling and his decorated 2013 recruiting class will be true juniors and third-year sophomores next season. I just don't think it's Freeze's style to bolt Ole Miss for more money and regardless, I'm told the big boosters at Ole Miss are already poised to make him one of the country's highest-paid coaches. Freeze has 9/1 odds at Bovada.
I understand the website placing Spurrier on the list at 8/1 odds. After all, Bovada is trying to make money off this proposition bet. But The HBC isn't walking through those doors. Spurrier knows the UF fan base better than anyone on this planet, and he's not looking to jump back into a pressure cooker at his age (69).
Mike Shanahan and Arizona's Rich Rodriguez share 7/1 odds. Foley made a run at Shanahan, who was the OC at UF in the early 1980s and remains friendly with the long-time AD. Shanahan is unemployed, but he's 62 and hasn't coached in college for more than 30 years. As for Rodriguez, I just don't think he's the right fit in the Sunshine State.
TCU's Gary Patterson and Auburn's Gus Malzahn complete the list with 12/1 odds. Unless Jay Jacobs and Malzahn are suddenly having issues, I have no clue why he would even be on the board. Patterson? I just can't see him being on Foley's radar.
If there's a sleeper, it's Chip Kelly. However, there's only one way this happens and it rests on Philadelphia losing three of its next four games.
The Eagles are currently in a first-place tie with the Cowboys. If they were to fall behind Dallas in the NFC East, they would be competing with Seattle, San Francisco and either Detroit or Green Bay for the two wild-card slots.
Philadelphia plays Dallas twice in the next four weeks, and it hosts Seattle on Dec. 7. My theory is that Foley is going to be very deliberate in this process. If the Eagles lose to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, perhaps he puts out a feeler to Kelly's agent?
If Philadelphia loses to Seattle the next week and Kelly's agent indicates potential interest, perhaps Kelly becomes a possibility. But Foley isn't going to base this search on possibilities. In other words, if the Eagles and Cowboys are still tied for the division lead after their game goes final on Dec. 14, Kelly is no longer a viable option even if he's interested.
There's a 2015 recruiting class that's in play here, and it needs to be a good one. Knowing Foley, there's no way a new coach isn't in place before Christmas and the Eagles don't play their last regular-season game until Dec. 28. If they make the playoffs, the season is extended at least another week.
There's also Kelly's troubles with the NCAA that basically forced him to bolt Oregon for the City of Brotherly Love. Foley's not bullish on issues with the NCAA, although we should note that Kelly's 18-month show-cause issues just ran out.
