Wednesday 10/19/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 4:46 PM EASTERN POST

8½ FURLONGS INNER TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $100,000.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $90,000.00 PURSE

#8 ALMANAAR
#7 ICE CUTTER
#2 BAY OF PLENTY
#3 NIGHT PROWLER

#8 ALMANAAR, a British-bred entry, has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five outings, and has posted a trio of wins in this time period, with 2 of those "Circle Trips" also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS." Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Chad Brown send my top pick to the post this afternoon ... they've hit the board with 59% of nearly 250 entries saddled as a team to date. #7 ICE CUTTER, a 5-1 shot, has turned in POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in three, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both his last start, as well as in his 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 10/19 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,3 / 5,6,9 / 9 / 1,2,3,5,9 = $30


Best Bet: LADY EDITH (1st)

Spot Play: HOORAY KATIE (7th)


Race 1

(4) LADY EDITH three-year-old filly seems to be getting better as the year goes on. (1) KENTUCKY HALL should be in line for an excellent trip up close with the rail. (7) DJ BABY BELLE made a miscue last week against easier but set a lifetime mark the previous start.

Race 2

(5) AIR TURBULANCE two-year-old faces older but raced well last out and looks to offer a huge price. (3) KYLE ISAAC has breaking issues but if the 5-year-old minds his manners he can hit the ticket. (8) WICKED WINDY four-year-old mare owns some ability but is up against it from the outside.

Race 3

(2) SUPER LILY three-year-old filly will look to make it two straight in the series and twelve of seventeen on the year. (6) EVANORA burned cash last week as the heavy favorite but should still be considered a threat getting sent out for top connections. (3) TT'S EBONY filly might have more to offer this week but is still best used underneath.

Race 4

(2) GUITAR SET well bred 3-year-old will offer a good price and looks to be in line for a nice trip up close. (1) SILVER CHIEF sophomore pacer is 0 for his career and has lacked stamina late; command a price. (5) TONEKA has room to improve third start back off a long layoff.

Race 5

(8) JOJO'S JOURNEY four-year-old made a bunch of money last year and might have the kinks worked out for the remainder of his season. (2) VICTORY CANDY MAN has been competitive against better on the year. The 7-year-old also needed his last start. (4) CHILLER ICE well bred stallion can threaten if he minds his manners.

Race 6

In a really weak field, (5) CHICAGOSONAROLL should be good enough to beat this bunch with a trouble-free trip. (6) TONOLLI lightly raced 3-year-old makes his third career start and finished second in this class a few weeks ago. (3) BB RADAR pacer makes his first start for a new trainer with a big driver change.

Race 7

(9) HOORAY KATIE has been facing tougher and can score at a price with a smooth trip. (6) SON OFA SPUR owns multiple wins at this level on the year; threat. (1) BOSCO'S ANGEL raced well from the far outside post last start.

Race 8

(3) DEFTONES veteran gelding owns some back class and can score at a price with some racing luck. (1) CELESTIAL DREAMS gets the best post but will offer low value; use caution. (4) COLD HEARTED SHARK adds second time lasix for the top barn.

Race 9

(5) DARK ROAST trotting mare has had a tough go of it as a 4-year-old but did race well last out against a tougher bunch. (9) MUSCLE ON BROADWAY should be closer turning for home this week; threat. (6) B COR THOMAS looks to offer good value down in class.

Race 10

(9) ROYAL ASSASSIN raced deceptively well last week at this level. (1) BECKYS DREAMBOAT has just been racing evenly but does benefit from the rail. (2) ART OF ESCAPE looks to be in the mix against an inconsistent field.

Race 11

(3) TIDEWATER TOMCAT dropped and popped last week at a price. The pacer needs a good setup but should offer another big price. (5) BETTOR DESIGN eleven-year-old gelding has made the most money in the field on the year. (9) VERBAL ASSAULT well bred five-year-old dominated against better three back.

Race 12

(5) FLYING MUSCLES four-year-old is the fastest trotter in the field when right. (9) NORMA'S ROSE doesn't win often but can hit the ticket at a price. (1) SHARP ACTION has been competitive against better and gets the best post.

Race 13

In one of the toughest races to handicap on the card, (5) SIR HOWIE'S Z TAM has been racing gamely and will offer value. (4) MC WILLIAM is in the same boat as the top choice and might be overlooked. (3) LUCPARK four-year-old is one for twenty-four on the year; use caution.

Race 14

(5) KIRKTONS CREDIT gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but is one of the faster pacers in the race. (3) MOON IS ALL AGLOW lightly raced 3-year-old has room to improve in his second career start. (6) MR BULLY FROG closed decent ground late last out against similar.

Race 15

(5) LIMA RITCH doesn't look the best on paper but has a history of scoring big upsets at this level. (9) SUNBURNED VERN looks like the horse to beat on paper taking a significant drop in class. (1) MORELAND FLASH owns the fastest win in the field on the year; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Belmont Park (4th) Too Wild to Repent, 4-1
(7th) Bond Vigilante, 10-1


Charles Town (1st) Just a Lil Runaway, 7-2
(5th) Casual Attire, 9-2


Delta Downs (1st) Coyote Del Fuego, 7-2
(9th) Lady Lutie, 5-1


Finger Lakes (4th) King Dublin, 3-1
(5th) Againsome, 5-1


Gulfstream Park West (6th) Touch of Quality, 6-1
(8th) Royal Pavilion, 3-1


Hawthorne (2nd) Sassy Moe, 6-1
(7th) Lewis Vale, 3-1


Indiana Grand (4th) Aqtaar, 4-1
(8th) Dr Smooth, 8-1


Keeneland (3rd) Perplexed, 8-1
(8th) Judy Judy Judy, 9-2


Meadowlands (3rd) Sky Above, 6-1
(6th) Dynatail, 6-1


Mountaineer (1st) Diegobas, 8-1
(2nd) Shes Notable, 6-1


Penn National (4th) Waitin On One, 5-1
(8th) Eclusive Symphony, 3-1


Remington Park (5th) Fiddlers Tsunami, 3-1
(8th) Mysterious Promise, 3-1


Thistledown (1st) Prince Mayhem, 4-1
(6th) Conquest Perfectlu, 6-1


Woodbine (1st) Stop Who's That, 6-1
(3rd) Rince Tapaigh, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cubs (103-58) at Dodgers (91-71)
By Forrest Lee, The Sports Xchange

Game: 4
Venue: Dodger Stadium
Date: October 19, 2016 8:08 PM EDT

In NLCS Game 4, elder Lackey faces youngster Urias

LOS ANGELES -- Oh, to be young again.

John Lackey, the 37-year-old Chicago Cubs pitcher, was asked Tuesday what it might be like for 20-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Julio Urias, Lackey's counterpart in Game 4 on Wednesday.

"Sometimes, it's good to be young," said Lackey, who was 24 when he started Game 7 for the victorious 2002 World Series champion Anaheim Angels. "You don't know what you're getting into. You can just go out there and let your talent take over. And, obviously, he has a lot of that."

Urias (1-0, 0.00 in the postseason) will become the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game when he and Lackey square off at Dodger Stadium, with the Dodgers up 2-1 in the series. Urias faced the Cubs twice during the season, with mixed results.

In his first encounter at Wrigley Field on June 2, Urias was the losing pitcher after serving up six runs (five earned) on eight hits in five innings. It was only Urias' second start in the majors.

On Aug. 27 at Dodger Stadium, Urias struck out eight, gave up six hits and walked two in six innings to capture a win.

"Yeah, I've seen them twice, and that helps," Urias said. "It makes me a lot more comfortable, especially being that the second time was here at home. I go in with that mentality and try to give the best."

In addition to his pitching, one of Urias' best attributes is his poise, manager Dave Roberts said.

"Julio, as I've gotten to know him, he's just so calm and cool. And some of it plays to the youthfulness, the naivete, and just not really understanding the gravity of this moment, which is great," Roberts said. "I think that it's a baseball game, and when he's asked to take the baseball, he does it. And he's going out there focused and trying to execute pitches."

Cubs manager Joe Maddon took some swings at Urias. Maddon said Urias is a balk waiting to happen. Much has been made of Urias' pickoff of Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals in Game 5 of the National League Division Series, which the Dodgers won as the southpaw claimed his first playoff win.

"When you get to see it on TV, it's pretty obvious," Maddon said. "It's not even close. It's a very basic tenet regarding what is and what is not a balk. Give him credit, man, for going through with it. That's part of the game."

Lackey (0-0, 6.75) leads all active pitchers with 21 postseason starts. He has an 8-5 record and a 3.22 ERA in 24 playoff appearances. Lackey was 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 29 starts this season.

Lackey has made one postseason appearance against the Dodgers, earning the victory in Game 3 of the 2014 NLDS with the St. Louis Cardinals. In that contest, Lackey gave up a run in seven innings in the Cardinals' 3-1 victory at Busch Stadium.

Lackey has gone 6-3 with a 1.75 ERA in 12 regular-season games (11 starts). He will be facing the Dodgers for the first time this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Wednesday’s games

ALCS

Indians @ Blue Jays
Merritt is a rookie lefty who allowed one run in five IP at Kansas City in his first and only MLB start- he appeared in three other games, in relief. He was a 13th round draft pick five years ago.
Estrada is 2-1, 1.27 in his last five starts, 3-2, 2.59 in nine postseason games (5 starts). Toronto is 2-5 in his last seven home starts. Estrada is 0-1, 3.46 in two starts against the Indians this year.
Toronto had won six in row before this series; they’re 4-7*against the Indians this year. Gibbons is 10-9*as a postseason manager, making it this year and last, his 8th/9th years as a manager. Jays lost in this round LY, their first playoff spot since their last world title, in 1993.
Cleveland won nine of its last ten games; they’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last 15 years. Tribe was last in World Series in ’97; their last world title was in 1948. Francona won couple of World Series in Boston; he is 33-19 as a postseason manager.


NLCS

Cubs @ Dodgers
Lackey is 2-0, 3.91 in his last four starts; Cubs are 3-4 in his last seven road starts. Lackey didn’t pitch against the Dodgers this year. He is 8-5, 3.22 in 21 postseason starts.
Urias is 1-0, 0.84 in his last four outings, but hasn’t gone 4+ innings since September 2; he threw two scoreless innings at Washington in his first playoff game. He is 1-1, 4.91 in two starts against the Cubs.
Cubs are 4-3 in playoffs this year, 2-2 on the road, 5–5 against Los Angeles this season.
Dodgers won four*of their last five games; Roberts is a rookie manager who is 5-3*in the playoffs. Maddon got Tampa Bay to ’08 World Series; he is 21-25 as a manager in the postseason, 8-8 with Chicago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Huddersfield Town vs Preston North End

Bonus Play Draw at +210 in this match set for Wednesday in England.

Preston 1

Huddersfield 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Indians (94-67) at Blue Jays (89-73)
By Larry Millson, The Sports Xchange

Game: 5
Venue: Rogers Centre
Date: October 19, 2016 4:08 PM EDT

Blue Jays still in survival mode vs. Indians

TORONTO -- The Toronto Blue Jays survived their first elimination game of the postseason on Tuesday by defeating the Cleveland Indians 5-1 in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series.

Now they must try to do it again in Game 5 on Wednesday at Rogers Centre.

Blue Jays manager John Gibbons has given the assignment to right-hander Marco Estrada, who took the loss in Game 1 despite pitching Toronto's only complete game of the season -- a 2-0 loss to Corey Kluber.

The Indians will go with left-handed rookie Ryan Merritt, who will be making his postseason debut after spending most of the season at Triple-A Columbus.

The Blue Jays' five runs Tuesday were more than they had scored in the three previous games combined (three). It helped when a home run by Josh Donaldson gave them a 1-0 lead in the third and an RBI flare single by Ezequiel Carrera in the fourth gave them a 2-0 lead.

"You know, I liked being able to get the lead there early on in the game," Donaldson said. "We haven't been able to get a lead in this series. And I felt like it was very important for us to get out to a lead. And even if it was one run, whatever. ... In the playoffs, these games aren't going to come easy to win. They've played great defense. They've pitched well and had timely hits."

The Indians were able to get through Tuesday without using their two best relievers, right-hander Cody Allen and left-hander Andrew Miller. Both played vital roles in the first three games of the series. They will be rested for Game 5.

"I think that helps," Indians manager Terry Francona said. "Certainly when you're down one trying to keep it at one so we have a chance, but also recognizing that if Miller and Cody pitch, that would have been four out of five pretty high-stress, high-leverage innings.

"(I) decided to try to go a different route. Didn't work out as well as we wanted, but we do have those guys available with a day off behind it."

Edwin Encarnacion added a two-run single and Kevin Pillar had a sacrifice fly.

Blue Jays manager John Gibbons felt like his team approached the game like they normally would.

"Really, everything, almost like a normal day," Gibbons said. "Obviously it's not, but it was almost like a normal regular-season game. They were nice, loose and relaxed, well aware of the circumstances. They showed up today like they always do and played a good ballgame."

Francona was down 3-0 in the 2004 ALCS when he was managing the Boston Red Sox. They became the first major-league team to come back from a 3-0 disadvantage, beating the New York Yankees in seven games. They then went on to win the World Series.

"I'm proud of that, obviously," Francona said before the game Tuesday. "That was a wonderful four days. I don't think the first three were that great. But it ended -- it was fun to live through that and to actually live. So I guess if people ask, I don't mind it, because like I said, I was proud of those guys. ... But this is a different time, a different team, very different circumstances."

Merritt has pitched in four regular-season games, including one start, and is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA. In 24 starts at Columbus, he was 11-8 with a 3.70 ERA.

"If you told me at the start of the season I was going to be pitching in the ALCS, I would've thought you were crazy," Merritt said. "It's awesome. I'm glad it's here."

Estrada allowed two runs in eight innings in the 2-0 loss in Game 1 at Progressive Field. He allowed six hits and one walk and struck out six.

In his regular-season start against Cleveland this season, he allowed three runs in five innings. In two career regular-season starts vs. Cleveland, he is 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA.

"We've got to win," Estrada said. "That's basically it. I'm going to go out and do what I've basically done all year and not really think about it as an elimination game. I'll just think about it just as another game. My job is to try to go nine innings and give up zero runs. So it doesn't matter if it's the last game of the season, the first game, you want to do that every time out."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Wednesday’s games

ALCS

Indians @ Blue Jays
Merritt is a rookie lefty who allowed one run in five IP at Kansas City in his first and only MLB start- he appeared in three other games, in relief. He was a 13th round draft pick five years ago.
Estrada is 2-1, 1.27 in his last five starts, 3-2, 2.59 in nine postseason games (5 starts). Toronto is 2-5 in his last seven home starts. Estrada is 0-1, 3.46 in two starts against the Indians this year.
Toronto had won six in row before this series; they’re 4-7*against the Indians this year. Gibbons is 10-9*as a postseason manager, making it this year and last, his 8th/9th years as a manager. Jays lost in this round LY, their first playoff spot since their last world title, in 1993.
Cleveland won nine of its last ten games; they’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last 15 years. Tribe was last in World Series in ’97; their last world title was in 1948. Francona won couple of World Series in Boston; he is 33-19 as a postseason manager.


NLCS

Cubs @ Dodgers
Lackey is 2-0, 3.91 in his last four starts; Cubs are 3-4 in his last seven road starts. Lackey didn’t pitch against the Dodgers this year. He is 8-5, 3.22 in 21 postseason starts.
Urias is 1-0, 0.84 in his last four outings, but hasn’t gone 4+ innings since September 2; he threw two scoreless innings at Washington in his first playoff game. He is 1-1, 4.91 in two starts against the Cubs.
Cubs are 4-3 in playoffs this year, 2-2 on the road, 5–5 against Los Angeles this season.
Dodgers won four*of their last five games; Roberts is a rookie manager who is 5-3*in the playoffs. Maddon got Tampa Bay to ’08 World Series; he is 21-25 as a manager in the postseason, 8-8 with Chicago.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday’s six-pack

—*Buffalo Bills have won four games in a row for the first time since 2008; they haven’t made the playoffs since 1999.

—*Colorado Buffaloes are 7-0 vs spread this year, only college team with a perfect spread record. Oregon Ducks are 0-5, only team with a perfectly bad record against the number.

—*Arizona State had an outdoor basketball practice last week, something designed to pump up support in the community. UNLV did same thing last year; they had a practice downtown on a portable court.

—*Carolina Panthers have played in two Super Bowls; they started the next season 1-5 both times.

—*After a lot of public/private jostling, the Big X will stay at ten teams for the time being, so no football championship game for them, for now.

— I*bought Halloween candy yesterday; what are the odds the bags stay closed until October 31st?

 

[PayItForwardCapper]

Heads up- If you are still using Phil Steele / North Coast Sports you are 20 years behind the times. You may want to update your Handicapping Source. Phil has 16 TV's on a wall , writes a great magazine. Unfortunately the PERCEPTION implies that Phil is a good handicapper. REALITY is he is the KOD. Ex: 10/15 Saturday - His Top 5 Plays went 0-5. Example for Saturday 10.22 Power Sweep Newsletter Top CFB is Auburn -10 . What do you notice first? Phil is using a BIG Favorite instead of a Dog. Please take note Arkansas Head Coach Bret Bielema is 12-3-1 ATS as a dog off a SUATS win in his career, including 11-1 ATS as a dog. Looks like Power Sweep could find a better play. NFL - Steele will park your tail in front of HIGH Public Bet % and wait for the bus to come run over you when he should be avoiding these type plays. Lastly Phil Steele in REALITY is a 'PICK SELLER' with 30 PICKS PER WEEK FOR SALE. Absolutely no GAME MANAGEMENT FOR YOU. Ex: One should not have more tan 5 plays for CFB and NFL combined. Less Plays = Increased chance of winning. If I go 1-0 on Saturday I am elated. 2-0 on Sunday for a 3-0 Week I am a Happy Camper. Good luck & Good winning.