Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Wednesday
577 UNLV @ 578 COLORADO STATE 10:00 PM
Take: UNLV -5
The number on this game has already gone up, and I guess that reflects the fact that UNLV is bigger, deeper and more talented than Colorado State. I don’t think there’s even a debate about that, particularly with Gian Clavell injured for the Rams.
Of course, games are not played on paper and that’s why the Runnin’ Rebels find themselves in an already desperate situation only one game into league play. They were absolutely terrible in the second half of the opener against Fresno State and flat out blew a game they should have won with relative ease.
If you want a great explanation of what’s wrong with UNLV hoops and ways to fix the problems, make sure to read the piece by Matt Youmans in today’s Las Vegas ***************.
I think it’s fair to declare I’m not Mr. Optimism when it comes to this program. I was during the Lon Kruger days but those are long gone and LK is doing his thing with an Oklahoma team that might just be Final Four material. If not, they’re damn close. The Rebels are in a different place. They need to win this basketball game and get a road sweep against two very beatable teams in Colorado State and Wyoming.
The risk here is obvious enough. UNLV needs to be pressing and trapping but I’m not sure they will. They need to exploit a clear physical advantage in the paint and not just pass the ball around the perimeter while settling for low percentage threes. I’m again not sure they will.
But for one night, I’m going to have faith. UNLV’s turnover problems shouldn’t be as much of a concern as they usually are, as Colorado State doesn’t force errors. If the Rebels can grasp the concept of blocking out smaller opponents, they should be okay on the glass against a tenacious, but limited CSU roster. UNLV needs to not give open distance looks to John Gillon and Antwan Scott. If they take away the treys, the Rams offense figures to struggle.
That’s a lot of ifs, and given the track record of Dave Rice at Moby, maybe this isn’t the best idea I’ve ever had. But I do think the betting line is an indicator based on where it opened and for that it’s worth, where it moved. I know this. If UNLV takes another loss here and also struggles at Wyoming, this team could fall apart. I’ll call this a one-shot as I really think it’s a now or never road trip for UNLV. Rebels minus the points.
