Wednesday 1/27/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delta Downs (1st) Winsky Alexandra, 5-1
(8th) Hometown Gossip, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Hanover Honey, 7-2
(11th) Reagan's Odyssey, 4-1


Mahoning Valley (4th) St. Patrick's Rib, 8-1
(7th) Ellzey's Rally, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Haversack, 6-1
(8th) Hectic, 6-1


Tampa Bay Downs (4th) Little Comma, 10-1
(5th) Just Em, 3-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Smoke Town, 3-1
(7th) Kowgirl Vibe, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp bettors are drooling over these can't-miss spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

Super Bowl 50 is still about two weeks away from kickoff, which gives both the Panthers and Broncos plenty of time to build butterflies in their stomach before the Big Game. As is the case in most championship tilts, contending teams are a little tight early on – manifesting in dropped passes and mental mistakes - and go through a bit of a “feeling out” process in the opening minutes of the game. Super Bowl is no exception.

The last eight Super Bowls have averaged just over a touchdown in the opening 15 minutes, including a big goose egg between the Patriots and Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX last year. Those 7.12 average points sit below the set total for the first quarter, which opened 7.5 (Over -125/Under +105). Carolina was the highest scoring team in the NFL this season and averaged 7.2 points in the opening frame but allowed just 3.9 points against in that span. Denver put up 4.4 points per while giving up an average of a field goal against in the first quarter. With some big stage jitters, there could continue to be value with a first-quarter letdown.

Lookahead spot

The Louisville Cardinals sit No. 14 in the college polls and 5-1 in ACC play but have yet to take on the class of the talent-heavy conference. The Cardinals have bullied some of the ACC’s mid-tier teams but run a gauntlet of conference heavyweights to close conference play, starting with a home game against No. 12 Virginia Saturday. Following that, UL plays North Carolina, bottom-feeder Boston College, Duke on the road, at Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Duke at home.

Louisville could get caught looking ahead to that tough stretch of sked when it takes on Virginia Tech Wednesday night. The Cardinals travel to Blacksburg with just a 1-4 ATS mark on the road, including a 0-3 ATS record in ACC away games. The Hokies won’t back down from UL either. This program scored an upset over rival Virginia at the start of the month and stood toe-to-toe with UNC in their last game, losing by five as 12.5-point home underdogs.

Schedule spot

The Atlanta Hawks have a busy week, fresh off a win in Denver Monday night. The Hawks catch their breath before a hectic itinerary that has them at home against the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday, and traveling to Indiana to play the Pacers Thursday for a set of back-to-back games against up-tempo teams.

Atlanta sits idle for two days before closing out a four games in six days slate, visiting South Beach to play the Miami Heat Sunday and then heading home to host the Dallas Mavericks Monday. The Hawks are 7-4 SU but just 5-6 ATS in the second half of back-to-back games this season. Atlanta could be worse for wear in that final game versus the Mavs, boasting an 11-8 SU and 9-10 ATS mark against the West this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

-- Georgetown 74, Creighton 73-- Bluejays led 70-59 with 2:34 left to play.

-- Wisconsin 82, Indiana 79 OT-- Badgers are 15-1 in last 16 games vs Indiana.

-- LSU 89, Georgia 85-- Tigers were 37-55 on foul line. Georgia was 15-24.

-- San Diego State 57, Nevada 54-- Wolf Pack led most of way, couldn't finish.

-- Virginia 72, Wake Forest 71-- Cavaliers were down 71-64 with 0:16 left.

-- Thunder 128, Knicks 122 OT-- Knicks are more fun to watch without Anthony; they're not quite as good, but they play harder.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

529 PITTSBURGH @ 530 CLEMSON 7:00 PM

Take: PITTSBURGH +3

Clemson was somewhat of an early season disappointment, but the Tigers have been a very pleasant surprise since ACC play got underway. Nevertheless, I see tonight’s game against Pittsburgh as a difficult challenge for Clemson and I’ll be lining up on the Panthers.

Clemson has succeeded in slowing down several opponents and creating some frustration for those teams in the process. I don’t think that’s as likely to be the case this evening. Pitt will be happy enough to play the game at a snail’s pace.

If that’s the scenario that unfolds, I believe it favors the Panthers are they are a very efficient offensive team when it’s not up and down the court. That’s not to suggest that Clemson is overmatched in any way tonight. But the numbers are pretty clear that in a duel of teams that are similar in approach, Pittsburgh does most things just a little better than the Tigers.

Both the Panthers and Tigers have a pair of frontcourt stars, and the likelihood is that the pairing that produces the better numbers tonight will end up leading their team to the win. It’s the Artis/Young combo for Pittsburgh going head to head with Blossomgame/Nnoko for Clemson. The Panthers should get some help with the possible return of Sheldon Jeter, a valuable commodity off the bench who has had some nice offensive games for Pitt.

This is close enough on paper, and I will be surprised if either team runs away with this one. That means a tight skirmish that likely goes down to the last few possessions. If that’s the case, grabbing three points could be very helpful. I’ll do exactly that here with the play on Pittsburgh.

 

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016 10:35 PM EST

(515) DALLAS MAVERICKS VS (516) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, January 27, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors. Dallas can play defense, No. 16 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 15 in field goal shooting defense. Dallas is 7-1 under the total on the road and 12-4-1 under against the Western Conference. It's the second of a back to back road spot, so they won't want to run, and run into a dominant Golden State defense ranked No. 2 in the NBA in points and field goal shooting defense allowed. They just held San Antonio to 90 points in a blowout win. Golden State is 50-21-1 under the total against the NBA Southwest division. And when these teams clash the under is 8-3, including 4-1 under in this building. Take Dallas/Golden State Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

California vs Utah

Bonus Play Utah

The California Golden Bears will be on the road at Utah on Wednesday. Both teams are 4-3 in conference play, and the Utes are just a slight favorite at home in this contest. The Utes beat California by a score of 76-61 in Utah last season, and I think the home team will prevail once again.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Utes have won four of their last five overall, and they've won three of their last four versus California. They've scored a ton of points at home, averaging 85.1 points on 50.8 percent shooting while winning nine of 10.

2. Home Cookin' - The Utes are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Cal is 2-5 ATS in it's last seven road games.

3. X-Factor - The Bears will be without senior PG Tyrone Wallace, who is sidelined with a hand injury.

Selection: This is a play on the Utah Utes (Free)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Heath Mac

Suns vs Cavs

Free Pick Under 211

This game looks like a blow out win to the Cavs, but the Cavs own just the 17th ranked offense putting up 101.3 ppg. The Suns meanwhile have been crippled with injuries to their two leading scorers in Bledsoe and Knight and have struggled to put up competitive totals, averaging just over 95 ppg in their last 10 games. The Suns have topped 100+ points only once in their last 5 games (against the 76ers).

The fact that the spread on this game is currently at 16.5 points would indicate we are unlikely to see free throws and clock stopping at the end of the game. The Suns are forced to play both Alex Len and Tyson Chandler at the moment for big minutes, which gives them two legitimate shot blockers and also 2 very good rebounders. The key to OVERs betting sits largely with three point shooting and the Suns have very little, hitting 6 or less in 3 of their last 5 games. With the Suns struggling to put up points and the Cavs being a very solid defensive unit, this one goes UNDER.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Phoenix's last 13 games when playing Cleveland. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. Cleveland has allowed the third fewest points in the league at 96.0 per game.

For our free pick, take the UNDER 211 points here

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

St. Louis vs Dayton

Bonus Play Over

I'm recommending a play on the Over between Saint Louis & Dayton on Wednesday. After losing 72-56 to VCU on January 10, SLU had lost nine of 11 games and they flat-out stunk on the offensive end. Their was truly no light at the end of the tunnel, playing their typical deliberate brand of basketball. Jim Crews decided to loosen the reigns and allow his team to play a much quicker brand of basketball and the Billikens have actually won two of their last four games, including two straight. They have scored an average of 83 ppg over their last four outings, while allowing 84 ppg. And after struggling with their accuracy when playing a slow tempo, SLU has connected on 64 of 122, 52% of their FGA over the last two games, combined. Their biggest issue now is their play on the defensive end, still leaving a lot to be desired. Dayton enters having made 46% of their FGA on the season, while averaging nearly 75 ppg. Their numbers are even better at home where they have nailed virtually half of their shots. SLU enters on a 4-0 Over run after Crews loosened the screws, and we expect another higher scoring game tonight. I'm recommending the Over between Saint Louis & Dayton on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.