Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Wednesday
569 NEVADA @ 570 WYOMING 9:00 PM
Take: NEVADA +3.5
It’s the second time around already for MWC rivals Nevada and Wyoming. The Wolf Pack won the first meeting in Reno, and they’ll go for the series sweep tonight at Laramie.
Nevada has shown some real improvement this season. The Wolf Pack have already exceeded their win total from a year ago, and with Eric Musselman now running the show, fans in Reno have a right to be excited about the future of the program. As for Wyoming, even with the rock solid Larry Shyatt in charge, the Cowboys figured to be down some this season, and that has indeed been the case.
The first game between these two teams was very competitive, with Nevada earning a 71-68 decision. That was a pretty tight game throughout, with eight points the greatest separation at any point. I’d expect more of the same this evening.
Tempo figures to be a key tonight. Nevada wants to push the ball and Wyoming wants to go the snail route. This is clearly a push vs. shove duel with two dramatically different philosophies going head to head. Being that this game is in Laramie, I won’t be surprised if Shyatt wins the pace battle.
But that doesn’t mean that Wyoming automatically gets the win by slowing the Wolf Pack down. Breaking down this game categorically, the fact is that the guys from Reno get multiple check marks when matched up head to head with the Cowboys.
I think a vital factor tonight will be Wyoming’s accuracy from the field. If the Cowboys are able to knock down shots on a regular basis, the scattershot Wolf Pack could be in trouble. But in looking at what took place in the first game. even that’s not an absolute. In that matchup, Wyoming did a terrific job hitting their threes, got to the foul line on a more frequent basis, won the offensive glass battle, and still lost the basketball game. What that tells me is that Nevada was able to garner a win in spite of not having a great game statistically, and I think that bodes fairly well for them tonight.
The revenge factor is in play for Wyoming, but Shyatt is just 6-9 outright in conference revenge games since returning to the Wyoming sidelines. In fairness, he’s done okay when trying to avenge a road loss, while actually going 0-7 when it’s the other way around. I also see that revenge angle being in the line to a minimal extent, as I made this game Wyoming -2. But this is more on matchup than value for me, and I see Nevada having a good chance to win again on that count. I’ll take the available points with the Wolf Pack tonight.
