Wednesday 1/18/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Thunder (25-18) at Warriors (35-6)

Date: January 18, 2017 10:30 PM EDT

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Golden State Warriors fans will get a second look this season at triple-double machine Russell Westbrook when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit Oracle Arena on Wednesday night.

Westbrook's first impression on the Golden State faithful in the post-Kevin Durant era was not flattering. The Thunder guard did record a 20-point, 10-assist double-double in the Nov. 3 game, but he missed 11 of his 15 shots and had as many turnovers (six) as rebounds (six).

It was Westbrook's first meeting with Durant as an opponent, and that didn't go well for the Thunder, either. The Warriors won easily 122-96.

Signed away from the Thunder by the Warriors in the off-season with a two-year, $54.3 million contract, Durant has yet to make a return to Oklahoma City. That won't happen until Feb. 11.

The teams also will meet March 20 at Oklahoma City.

The Thunder (25-18) have lost two of three games to begin their current six-game trip. They allowed 111.3 points in those three games, including 120 in a 22-point blowout loss against the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night.

History says they'll have a hard time turning things around against the Warriors (35-6), against whom Oklahoma City has lost four straight, giving up at least 116 points in each game.

Three of those four games occurred while Durant was playing for the Thunder. In fact, he averaged 36.3 points in the first three losses, before scoring 39 for the Warriors in the Nov. 3 win.

Westbrook, meanwhile, has averaged 23.8 points, 10.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds in the four losses. He had a seven-turnover game in the sequence, and has shot just 29 for 76 (38.2 percent) in the four games.

He does have one career triple-double against the Warriors. It came on Jan. 16, 2015 -- the last time the Thunder beat Golden State, 127-115 in Oklahoma City.

Westbrook has an NBA-best 20 triple-doubles this season. He will go for No. 21 without the help of his starting center, Steven Adams, who remains out with a concussion.

Adams suffered the injury in Sunday's win at Sacramento. In his absence Monday, the Clippers, even without injured Blake Griffin, burned the Thunder interior with 54.9-percent shooting and 62 points in the paint.

Westbrook thought his team missed Adams' aggressive style.

"Just wasn't ready to play," he blurted about his team in general. "Gotta be more physical."

The Warriors got physical with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, even going overboard on one occasion when Draymond Green was assessed a flagrant foul for clotheslining LeBron James on a fastbreak.

Golden State held James to 20 points on 6-for-18 shooting in dealing the defending champions a 126-91 shellacking.

"When we play well defensively, we're hard to beat," noted Warriors guard Klay Thompson, who will be assigned to Westbrook. "We got stops and got in the open court. We did a good job of that (in the Cleveland game)."

The game will conclude a 10-game stretch during which the Warriors won't leave Northern California. They've gone 7-1 in home games over the 22-day period, and also prevailed after a 90-mile bus ride to Sacramento.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 18, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

"The boss wants to see you." That's generally not a sentence you want to hear, no matter your profession. And when you hear of an owner of a sports team giving his head coach a vote of confidence, that's not usually going to end well for said coach. However, Pistons coach/president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy did get the dreaded vote of confidence from team owner Tom Gores recently. Van Gundy is in his third season in the dual roles with the franchise. Detroit snuck into the playoffs last year at 44-38 but enters Wednesday's game at just 19-24. Van Gundy was given a five-year, $35 million deal in May 2014 and I'm sure Gores would rather not eat the rest of that contract. I could see him telling Van Gundy that he has to pick one role and focus on that exclusively after this season. The Pistons move into a new building to share with the Red Wings in downtown Detroit for the 2017-18 season, and I'm sure Gores would like a little momentum/buzz to help sell new season tickets.

Raptors at 76ers (+6, 212)

You might see the Raptors rest a DeMar DeRozan or Kyle Lowry, etc., here as they were in Brooklyn on Tuesday. Philadelphia won for the fourth time in five games Monday, 113-104 in Milwaukee. Joel Embiid had 22 points and 12 rebounds. The Sixers had lost nine straight to the Bucks. Nerlens Noel was a late scratch with a sprained ankle. Toronto has won the past 14 in the series against Philadelphia, two of those this season.

Key trends: The Raptors are 7-0 against the spread in the past seven meetings. The "over/under" is 4-0 in the past four meetings.

Early lean: 76ers and over.

Grizzlies at Wizards (-4, 205.5)

Memphis lost to Chicago 108-104 on Sunday in a minor upset. Mike Conley had 28 points and eight assists and Marc Gasol 24 points and 11 rebounds. Memphis always hosts a game on MLK Day weekend. Washington won for the fifth time in six games Monday, 120-102 over Portland. Bradley Beal scored 25 points and John Wall had 24. Memphis beat visiting Washington 112-103 in OT on Oct. 30. However, the Grizz have dropped their past two trips to D.C.

Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 4-1 in Washington's past five vs. the West.

Early lean: Wizards and over.

Trail Blazers at Hornets (-6, 218)

Portland dropped a second straight Monday, 120-101 in Washington. CJ McCollum was held to just 12 points, ending his streak of eight straight games with at least 25. He did become the eighth player in the NBA to reach 1,000 points on the season, however. Charlotte dropped its fifth straight Monday, all on the road, 109-98 in Boston. Kemba Walker scored 24 points and Marvin Williams had 21. Portland and Charlotte split the season series, 1-1, in 2015-16 with each team winning its home game. The Blazers have won 10 of the past 13 meetings overall.

Key trends: The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 6-2 in the previous eight.

Early lean: Hornets and over.

Knicks at Celtics (TBA)

New York found a new way to lose Monday, 108-107 at home to Atlanta. Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah all missed fairly easy shots at the end with a chance to win it. Coach Jeff Hornacek moved Courtney Lee to the bench and started undrafted rookie Ron Baker. Kristaps Porzingis was out again with his Achilles problem. Boston won a third in a row Monday, 109-98 over Charlotte. Isaiah Thomas had 35 points, 17 in the fourth quarter. It was Thomas' 25th straight game with 20 or more points. Avery Bradley returned after missing four games. Boston is 2-0 vs. New York this season and has taken four in a row overall vs. the Knicks.

Key trends: The favorite is 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven.

Early lean: Wait on Porzingis.

Magic at Pelicans (TBA)

Orlando lost a second consecutive game Monday, 125-112 in Denver in game No. 5 of a six-game trip. Elfrid Payton scored 20 points and had 12 assists. Magic leading scorer Evan Fournier was out with a bruised heel. New Orleans dropped a second straight Monday, 98-95 at Indiana. Anthony Davis is banged up again after taking a hard fall. He injured both his thumb and hip, although X-rays were negative. I doubt Davis plays here. The Magic have won four straight and six of the last eight meetings with New Orleans overall. It was 89-82 earlier this season. Davis missed it.

Key trends: The Magic are 2-10 ATS in their past 12 Wednesday games. The under is 4-0 in the Pelicans' past four vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Wait on Davis.

Bucks at Rockets (-8.5, 229)

First of an ESPN doubleheader. Houston was in Miami on Tuesday and to get center Clint Capela back from a 14-game injury absence. Milwaukee lost its second in a row Monday, 113-104 at home to Philadelphia. Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo each scored 23 points for Milwaukee, but the Freak was in second-half foul trouble and did foul out with about three minutes left. Milwaukee and Houston split last year and the Rockets have taken the past three at home.

Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 5-1 in the Bucks' past six road games.

Early lean: Bucks and over.

Hawks at Pistons (TBA)

Atlanta won its second straight Monday, 108-107 at the Knicks on Dennis Schroder's 3-pointer with 22 seconds left. Tim Hardaway Jr. added 20 points and Paul Millsap had 17 for the Hawks, who won for the ninth time in 10 games. Hardaway Jr. started because the Hawks rested Dwight Howard, who should play here. Detroit closed a five-game West Coast trip at 2-3 following a 102-97 victory at the Lakers on Sunday. Tobias Harris scored 23 points and hit a decisive 3-pointer with 30.5 seconds to play. Andre Drummond had 15 points and 17 rebounds. Starters Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (second straight game) and Jon Leuer (fourth) both sat. Last meeting of the season between Atlanta and Detroit and they have split the previous two. The Pistons have lost three of the past four at home in the series.

Key trends: The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 6-1 in the previous seven.

Early lean: Wait on Howard and KCP.

Thunder at Warriors (-12.5, 226)

Second ESPN game. Oklahoma City was routed 120-98 at the Clippers on Monday. Russell Westbrook was 7-for-19 for 24 points and not close to a triple-double. He was the only starter to score in double figures and got the fourth quarter off. Steven Adams sat as he was in the NBA's concussion protocol. Golden State destroyed Cleveland on Monday, 126-91 in the Warriors' likely best game of the season. Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant all scored at least 20 points and Draymond Green had a triple-double. This is the second meeting of the season between Westbrook and Durant. On Nov. 3 in Oakland, the Warriors rolled 122-96. Durant was much better in that one with 39 points and seven rebounds. Russ had 20 points, 10 assists and six boards but hit just 4-for-15 from the field.

Key trends: The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.

Early lean: Warriors and over. I'd take the points if I knew Adams was playing but it's not looking good.

Pacers at Kings (+1, 217)

Indiana beat New Orleans 98-95 on Monday. Jeff Teague finished with 16 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds -- he has yet to have a triple-double in his career. Thaddeus Young left in the first half after getting poked in the left eye but returned at the start of the third quarter. Sacramento lost a second in a row Sunday, 122-118 vs. Oklahoma City. DeMarcus Cousins had 31 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists. The Kings are 1-5 on their season-high seven-game homestand and go on a monster road trip after this game. First meeting of the season between Indiana and Sacramento. The Kings have taken the past four.

Key trends: The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-1 in Indiana's past eight.

Early lean: Kings and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday’s games

Portland split its last ten games, covered three of last four on road; they’re 5-11 as road underdogs. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Hornets lost seven of last eight games; they’re 6-1 in last seven games as a home favorite. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Portland won seven of last nine games with Charlotte (6-3 vs spread); Trailblazers lost three of last five visits here (2-3 vs spread). Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Memphis is 3-4 in its last seven games, 7-7 vs spread as a road underdog. Grizzlies are 5-7 vs spread in last 12 road games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Wizards won five of last six games, are 11-1 vs spread in last 12 home games. Over is 7-4 in their last 11 home games. Home side won eight of last ten Memphis-Washington games; Grizzlies lost three of last four visits here (1-3 vs spread, over 3-1).

Raptors won its last four games, is 4-6 vs spread as a road favorite. Last six Toronto games went over the total. 76ers won four of last five games, covered seven of last eight; they’re 12-6 as home underdogs. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Toronto won its last ten games with the 76ers, covered last seven; Raptors won last five visits to Philly, covered last four. Six of last seven series games went over total.

New York lost 11 of last 13 games, 8-4 vs spread in last 12 games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. Celtics won seven of last eight games, are 9-7 as home favorites; six of their last eight home games went over the total. Knicks lost eight of last nine games with Boston, losing last four visits to Beantown (1-3 vs spread). Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Magic lost six of last seven games, is 3-5 in last eight games as a road underdog. Last three Orlando games went over. Pelicans won four of last five home games, are 5-9 as home faves (star Davis is banged up, check status). Last four NO games stayed under. Orlando won its last four games with New Orleans (3-1 vs spread); Magic lost three of last five visits to Bourbon Street. Last six series games stayed under the total.

Atlanta won nine of last ten games, covered eight of last ten on road. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Pistons lost three of last four games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. Three of last four Detroit games stayed under. Hawks won four of last five games with Detroit; six of last seven series games went over total. Atlanta won three of last four visits to Motor City, winning last two by 17-4 points.

Bucks lost four of last six games, are 5-9 as road underdogs. Five of their last six games went over total. Houston lost three of last four games; they’re 1-4 in last five games as a home favorite. Five of their last six games went over the total. Rockets won five of last six games with Milwaukee; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Bucks lost last three visits to Houston, by 10-6-4 points.

Pacers won six of last seven games, but lost four of last five games away from home. Seven of their last eight games went over total. Sacramento lost five of its last six games, six of last seven at home; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Kings won last four games with Indiana; they covered four of last five series games. Pacers lost by 1-11 points in last two visits here. Last three series games stayed under total.

Warriors won last four games with Oklahoma City, winning by 26 in first reunion with Durant and his old team on Nov 3. Thunder lost last four visits to Oakland (0-4 vs spread). Under is 7-2 in last nine series games. Thunder won four of last six games overall, but lost six of last eight on road; they’re 2-4 in last six games as a road dog. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Golden State won four in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 10-12 as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Jan. 18 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Potentially devastating news for an excellent Creighton team on Monday as point guard Maurice Watson, who leads the nation in assists at 8.8 per game, had to be carried off the court in the first half after injuring his knee. It was actually the second time in the game he had to be helped off the court as he previously had collided with a Xavier player. Watson also averages 13.4 points and shoots an excellent 48.4 percent from 3-point range. The No. 7 Bluejays are next in action Saturday at home vs. Marquette. Creighton is +3000 to win a national title. I don't think this team is quite that good, but it could make the Final Four if Watson is OK. Early reports are the ligament is "solid", so that sounds positive.

No. 19 Florida at No. 24 South Carolina (+1)

First game on the schedule with a 6:30 p.m. ET tip on the SEC Network. The Gators and Gamecocks join Kentucky as the only teams without an SEC loss yet and probably will be the only three schools in the conference to make the Big Dance. Maybe Mississippi State. Florida won a seventh straight game on Saturday, 80-76 in overtime against Georgia. Canyon Berry led the way with 27 points. He was a big reason why UF's reserves outscored Georgia's a whopping 51-5. The Gators starting frontcourt of Devin Robinson, Justin Leon and Kevarrius Hayes scored just nine points. The Dawgs did lead by eight in the second half.

South Carolina is unbeaten when star guard Sindarius Thornwell has been in the lineup. Thornwell was suspended for six games in December for violation of school policy. USC went 3-3 without him. The Gamecocks won a fourth in a row Saturday, 67-56 over Ole Miss to get back into the Top 25. Four Gamecocks were in double figures, led by sophomore Chris Silva, who recorded his second career double-double with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Thornwell had 10 points and eight rebounds. USC forced 21 turnovers and has forced 84 turnovers in its four SEC games. Carolina beat visiting UF 73-69 in OT in the lone meeting last season.

Key trends: Florida is 6-1 against the spread in its past seven following an ATS loss. The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their past six on Wednesday. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their past five at South Carolina.

I'm leaning: USC is 2-0 vs. ranked foes this year and I believe it covers here.

No. 15 Notre Dame at No. 10 Florida State (-5)

ACC game at 7 p.m. ET. I'm just going to stick with Florida State games until I get one wrong. I was on the Noles last week in their home game against Duke and they won that easily. I was absolutely against FSU in a letdown game on Saturday at North Carolina and the Seminoles were beaten 96-83 to see their school-record 12-game winning streak end. This is game No. five of a six-game stretch vs. ranked teams, and I'll probably look at FSU's home game vs. No. 12 Louisville on Saturday if I'm right about the Noles again here. The main reason they lost to North Carolina was the Heels won the battle on the boards 56-34, with 21 offensive rebounds. They finished with a 28-15 edge in second-chance points, the exact difference in the game. FSU also missed 14 of 26 free throws.

The Irish are the only team without an ACC loss. They won a seventh in a row Saturday, 76-71 at Virginia Tech. Steve Vasturia had a team-high 20 points and was named the co-ACC Player of the Week. The 5-0 conference start is the best in Notre Dame program history, regardless of league. The win also snapped Virginia Tech's 15-game home winning streak just two days after the team ended Miami's 21-game home winning streak. UND outscored Tech 10-2 down the stretch and has now outscored its ACC opponents 45-11 in the final 11:27 (combined) this season. FSU won the lone meeting with Notre Dame last year 77-56 in Tallahassee.

Key trends: The Irish are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four road games. The Noles are 12-4 ATS in their past 16 at home.

I'm leaning: Florida State.

Colorado at Washington (pick'em)

Pac-12 game at 11 p.m. ET on ESPNU and these are probably the two most disappointing teams in the conference. The Buffs and Oregon State are the only schools winless in the conference -- CU was an NCAA Tournament team last year. It comes off a 71-68 home loss to No. 25 USC on Sunday, a fifth straight defeat. It's the longest losing streak in Coach Tad Boyle's tenure in Boulder. The Buffs had battled back from a 67-60 deficit with 2:44 remaining by scoring eight straight points. Colorado committed 17 turnovers and allowed USC to collect 17 offensive rebounds. The Trojans turned those into a combined 36 points. It was CU's first loss this year after leading at the half (6-1).

Washington fell to 1-4 in the conference with a 79-69 loss at Stanford on Saturday. The Huskies rallied from a 45-24 deficit to tie it at 63 on David Crisp's 3-pointer with 4:15 left. But the Cardinal scored 11 straight and closed the game on a 13-6 run. Freshman superstar Markelle Fultz had 34 points, his third 30-point outing for Washington. He's averaging 22.2 points, 6.1 assists and 5.8 rebounds. Senior team captain Malik Dime missed his second straight game with a broken finger on his right hand and won't play here. Colorado and UW split last year.

Key trends: The Buffs are 1-7 ATS in their past eight. UW is 3-8 ATS in its past 11. CU is 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings.

I'm leaning: Washington.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Noles host Fighting Irish'

Florida State will be looking for a statement victory when they take on Notre Dame Fighting Irish Wednesday night in ACC action. The Noles' had been busy compiling a twelve game win streak but it all came crashing down in Chapel Hill Saturday as Tar Heels handed Florida State a seventh consecutive series loss spanking Noles' 96-83. Meanwhile, Fighting Irish getting past Virginia Tech last effort have won seven straight including a perfect 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in conference play.

Florida State ranks a stellar 13th in scoring nationally by putting up 86.5 points/game behind three players in double digits lead by Dwayne Bacon (17.8). The Irish no slouches at putting the ball through the hoop (81.1) have four players in double digits lead by Bonzie Colson (15.8).

Home court plays a big roll in Florida State winning this contest. The Noles' tough to topple in Tallahassee have won fourteen straight regular season games in front of the home audience going 10-2 ATS in lined games including a 77-56 spanking of Irish last season. Notre Dame has been money as faves with the Irish going 6-1-1 ATS when giving up points. However, Notre Dame is a vig-losing 2-2 ATS in its four games as underdogs this season and have gone 4-4-1 ATS in its last nine as road underdogs in conference play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Wednesday’s games

Florida won its last seven games; they’re 5-0 in SEC, winning road games by 9 at Arkansas, 13 at Alabama. Gators force turnovers 24.9% of time vs SEC opponents. South Carolina is 4-0 in SEC, beating Texas A&M/Ole Miss by 11 points each in its two SEC home games. Gamecocks are forcing turnovers 29.7% of time in league play. Florida won seven of last eight games with South Carolina, losing in OT in Columbia LY; Gators won four of last five games here. Road teams are 13-5 vs spread in SEC games where spread was 5 or less points.

Indiana lost four of last six games after a 10-2 start; they’re 0-2 in true road games, losing at Ft Wayne/Maryland, both by 3 points. Hoosiers put their foes on foul line more than any team in Big 14. Penn State won three of last four games, beating Michigan St/Minnesota in last two; they were down 10 at half to Gophers in last game. PSU won two of last three games with Indiana, after losing previous five series games. Hoosiers won four of last five visits to Happy Valley. Big 14 home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-3 vs spread this season.

Notre Dame won its last seven games, is 16-2, 5-0 in ACC, with four wins by 5 or less points or in OT. Irish already have ACC wins at Pitt-Miami-Va Tech; they protect ball well and they don’t foul much. Florida State is also 16-2; they had 12-game win streak snapped at UNC Saturday. Seminoles are 3-0 in ACC home games, winning by 16-15-16 points- they get to foul line more than any team in ACC. FSU won 76-74/77-56 in its last two games with Notre Dame. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 9-4 vs spread this season.

TCU is 14-3 this year, 3-2 in Big X, after being 8-64 in league games the previous four years. Horned Frogs are 3-2 in Big X, 1-1 on road; their losses are to Kansas/WestVa. Frogs are shooting 55.3% inside arc in Big X games. Texas Tech is 2-3 in Big X, 2-0 at home with pair of one-point wins, over WVU/K-State- Red Raiders won eight of last nine games with TCU. Horned Frogs beat ‘em 67-62 in Big X tourney LY, but lost last four visits to Lubbock, by 9-6-20-4 points. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-3 against the spread.

Wake Forest is 1-4 in ACC, with only win at home vs Boston College; Deacons’ ACC home losses are by 5 to Clemson, 6 to UNC. Wake is shooting 39% (#32) from arc for season. Miami split tis first four games, losing by 15 at Syracuse, winning by 26 at Pitt in their road games. Hurricanes are #266 experience team that is just 2-4 vs top 100 teams, beating NC State/Pitt. Home side won last five Miami-Wake Forest games; Hurricanes lost 80-65/72-70 in last two visits here. Road team is 6-3-1 vs spread in ACC games where spread was 3 or less points.

Utah is 3-2 in Pac-12 after playing #339 pre-conference schedule; they split pair of Pac-12 road games, losing by 9 at Arizona, winning by 6 at ASU. Utes are last in league getting to foul line. Utah won its last five games with Washington State, winning 67-59/92-77 in last two visits here- they beat Coogs 88-47 in last meeting in SLC LY. Wazzu lost its last three games by 19-30-4 points; Coogs are #84 experience team that packs it in on defense; teams are shooting 44.7% on arc against them in Pac-12 tilts. Pac-12 home underdogs are 5-5 vs spread this season.

Ohio State is 1-4 in Big 14, 0-3 on road, losing games by 5-10-23 points; they got first league win Sunday vs Michigan St. Buckeyes have #11 eFG% defense in Big 14. Nebraska lost its last two games after starting 3-0 in league; Huskers have made 43.7% of their 3’s in conference games. Ohio State won nine of last ten games with Nebraska, winning last three by 4-24-3 points. Buckeyes won three of last four visits to Lincoln, winning 65-62 in OT here LY. Big 14 home teams are 11-6 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Georgia Tech is 3-2 in ACC despite being picked to finish last before season; Jackets are 1-3 in true road games, losing by 53 at Duke, winning at NC State in ACC road games. GT opponents are shooting just 42.6% inside arc. Virginia Tech lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-1 at home in ACC, beating Duke/Syracuse, losing to Notre Dame. VT is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Hokies won their last two games with Georgia Tech by total of three points; Jackets lost six of last seven visits to Blacksburg. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 8-5 vs spread.

Home side won last nine Kansas State-Oklahoma State games; Wildcats beat OSU 75-71 in Big X tourney LY, but lost last four visits to Stillwater, by 3-14-16-6 points. K-State lost three of last four games; they’re 0-2 on Big X road, losing at Kansas/Tex Tech by total of three points. OSU is 0-5 in Big X, allowing 83.6 pts/game; Cowboys lost home games to WVU by 17, Iowa St by 10. OSU is fouling most and forcing least turnovers in Big X, a bad combination. Big X home teams are 5-5 against spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.

Wyoming is 2-3 in Mountain West, losing both road games, by 6 at UNLV, 15 at Fresno State. Cowboys are 1-4 overall in true road games this season, winning by one at Montana. Wyoming won five of last six games with San Jose State- they lost 62-55 here LY, but won previous two visits to San Jose, by 8-6 points. Spartans won two of last three games, are 1-1 in MW home games, losing by 5 to Colorado St, beating Fresno St by 7, after trailing by 15. Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in Mountain West games where spread was 3 or less points.

Colorado State is down to 7 scholarship players due to academic issues; Rams are 3-2 in MW, splitting pair of road games that were decided by total of six points- they lost by 1 at Boise, won at San Jose. Fresno State is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road in league play, beating Nevada/Wyoming/Boise at home. Bulldogs swept Colorado State by 14-8 points, after losing eight of previous nine series games. Rams are 2-3 in last five visits here, losing by 23-9-14 points. Mountain West home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-7 against the spread.

Colorado is 0-5 in Pac-12 after starting season 10-3; they lost Pac-12 road games at Arizona schools, by 1 at ASU, 9 in Tucson. Buffs are starting three juniors, two seniors, but are turning ball over 20% of time in Pac-12. Home side won six of eight Colorado-Washington games; Buffaloes lost three of four visits here, losing by 10-17-12 points. Huskies won first meeting of year last three seasons. Washington is 1-4 in Pac-12, with only win over lowly Oregon State. Pac-12 favorites are 0-5 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Denver is 11-7 this year, 3-2 in Summit League, after going 13-19 in league play last two years. Pioneers are playing pace #238 this year, after being at #350 last couple years, while playing Princeton style under the previous coach. Omaha won its last three games, scoring 88.7 pts/game; they’re playing #12 pace in country. Home side won last five Denver-Omaha games; Pioneers lost 80-69/75-72 in last two visits here- they beat Omaha 78-70 in Summit tourney LY. Summit League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.

Wednesday’s tips
Cal-Irvine, -5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

Uncontested entered the picture for the Kentucky Derby (G1) with a good-looking win on Monday in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park, picking up 10 points toward entry into the Run for the Roses.

The racing surface came up sloppy and under jockey Channing Hill the colt jumped out to uncontested (no pun intended) early lead and took the field gate to wire, returning $4.40 as the favorite.

Trained by Rom Moquette, the colt earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for his win and can still be had at a generous +8000 in early Derby wagering.

Next up for the colt will be the $500,000 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 20, which is also a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The last two slots for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) were filled on Monday and it looks as if we will have a full field of 12 shooting for the $7 million check for winning the world’s richest race.

The last two entrants are Prayer for Relief and Noble Bird, who both figure to be longshots.

As of right now the field is comprised of Arrogate, California Chrome, Keen Ice, Neolithic, Shaman Ghost, Eragon, War Story, War Envoy, Breaking Lucky, Ralis, Prayer for Relief and Noble Bird.

There is early betting available with California Chrome and Arrogate the co-favorites at even money. I think by the race, which will be run at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 28, California Chrome will end up a slight favorite.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L (12:35 ET)
#4 Wild Good 5-2
#6 Call to Honor 8-1
#1 Opening Remark 6-1
#3 Game Lad 3-1

Analysis: Wild Good pressed the early pace, took over the lead and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish at this level in his first start off a 3 1/2 month break. The winner Grand Nene came back to beat $30,000 non-winners of three or three-year-olds in his next outing on Dec. 21 here. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and does not need to move forward much off his last effort to win in this spot.

Call to Honor tossed in a did last out against state bed Alw-1 optional claimers and catches an easier spot here. Three back he was a decent second against $50,000 claimers. Note Jaramillo is off our top pick and is reunited with this guy. Worth tossing in the mix if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 Clm $25,000 (3:32 ET)
#8 My Third Eye 6-1
#1 Nerve Line 6-1
#10 Grace Appeal 15-1
#9 Harambe 10-1

Analysis: My Third Eye returns off a three-month break for the Ward barn that is 23% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The filly broke her maiden over the turf here at five furlongs last June in her second career start. She takes the blinkers off and drops into an easier spot here tagged for $25,000. She has been working sharply at Palm Meadows for her return.

Nerve Line was not a threat last out on poly versus Alw-1 optional claimers and returns to turf for just the second time. Her turf debut was a game second over yielding footing last summer at Woodbine. The blinkers go on and she drops into a good spot here.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,8,9,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,8,9,10 / 1,2,8,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #6 Call to Honor 8-1
R6: #6 Ross J Dawg 8-1
R7: #10 Grace Appeal 15-1
R7: #9 Harambe 10-1
R8: #4 Hy Dandy 8-1
R9: #5 Island Therapy 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Post: 2:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$6600 - CLAIM $8000 W/A
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 MY WAY THE HIGHWAY 4/1
# 9 GJ PHOTO VICTORY 20/1
# 6 BOOZY SUZY 20/1

MY WAY THE HIGHWAY appears to be our best wagering option in this affair. The panel of smart guys saw this horse's name on a bumper sticker. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small bet. With a very good 77 speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition. The handicapping team has Palone on its list of drivers who are real tough within the recent past. Last 30 days win percent is outstanding. GJ PHOTO VICTORY - Should be in the hunt again in this event, looking to improve that already high lifetime winning clip. BOOZY SUZY - This mare getting the trip to the winner's circle wouldn't be impossible, a chance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 1:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$4700 - N/W $500 P/S L/5 OR P/S IN 2016 $7500 P/C L/S AE: N/W 11 PM LT AE: $12500 CLM W/A
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 LAKEVIEW TAMMY 9/2
# 2 THE B STREET FAN 5/2
# 5 DEB ON BROADWAY 12/1

Feel pretty confident putting some profits down on LAKEVIEW TAMMY. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster speed figs which have been outstanding (84 avg) recently. Enters this race with very good TrackMaster class ratings relative to the pack - take a good look. Performing soundly, achieved a substantial TrackMaster SR in her last race (74). THE B STREET FAN - The knowledge group will always toss in a nice horse from the 2 position here at Monticello Raceway, definitely worth a look. DEB ON BROADWAY - Monticello Raceway has been playing to this interesting entrant's running style, we're looking for a formidable effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $20900 Class Rating: 92

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 18, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 18, 2016 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 SMOOTH SERVICE 6/1

# 7 SUPER FUND 3/1

# 3 TIGER BOURBON 7/2

My pick in this race is SMOOTH SERVICE. Is difficult not to look at based on speed figures which have been quite good - 88 avg - of late. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of very good win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface. The Equibase Speed Fig of 90 from his last affair looks respectable in here. SUPER FUND - When this jock and trainer team up, players often make money. One of the most respectable win percentages between this rider and trainer make this gelding dangerous. TIGER BOURBON - Is hard not to consider given the company run in lately. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 18, 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 11 CAT WITH A TWIST 5/1

# 1 EMMA LEA'S SONG 8/1

# 6 MAKE MONEY HONEY 7/2

CAT WITH A TWIST has a competitive shot to take this race. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me give my vote to this mare. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the lead early on. Has posted reliable speed figs in turf route races in the past. EMMA LEA'S SONG - Difficult to pass on this mare with Lopez in the irons. This animal is at the top in this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface. MAKE MONEY HONEY - Must be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying very good figures lately and an average speed fig of 82 under similar conditions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:24pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#6 FANTASTICALLY (ML=3/1)


FANTASTICALLY - Already competed against today's M/L favorite on December 9th at Charles Town and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again right here. You have to be keen on that recent race figure, 67, which is the top latest race speed rating of this field. This one has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 48 to 61 to 67 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DUBAI HOT SAUCE (ML=2/1), #1 MAGGIE WAG (ML=5/2), #1A UNHINCHED (ML=5/2),

DUBAI HOT SAUCE - If she goes off close to the morning line odds of 2/1, I'll have to pass. MAGGIE WAG - Hard to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance. UNHINCHED - This mare is always hitting the board, but just doesn't get the job done. Hard to bet on her on the top end.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 FANTASTICALLY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:32pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#8 CONTRADICT (ML=6/1)
#5 ISLAND THERAPY (ML=8/1)


CONTRADICT - Using this jockey/trainer combination is a good decision. The rest of the field may trail this horse all the way around the track. In this race here, this racer has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His speed ratings are the highest in the field for this distance and surface. Finished fourth at Aqueduct last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 today, he looks like a possible contender. ISLAND THERAPY - This jock/trainer duo has been producing a high win percentage, right around 30. I seem to always make money betting Servis horses on the grass. That barn has a dominant win pct for this distance/surface. Had a powerful closing move in the last race, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GALLEON MAST (ML=5/2), #3 BLUE HARBOR (ML=7/2), #6 MYSTIC SKY (ML=9/2),

GALLEON MAST - This come from behinder will probably be rolling fast from far back much too late to make an impression in this race. BLUE HARBOR - This gelding ran his best Equibase speed figure in some time on the turf in a route race. There may be a strong performance bounce today. MYSTIC SKY - Will probably be left with too much to do in the stretch.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #8 CONTRADICT to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

8 with 5 with [1,4,9] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

[5,8] with [5,8] with [1,4,7,9] with [1,4,7,9] with [1,4,7,9] Total Cost: $48

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 1/18 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SKYWAY COBRA (1st)

Spot Play: BEAUTY CHIP (11th)


Race 1

(3) SKYWAY COBRA gelding made breaks last week but will win for fun if he stays trotting. (7) MORELAND FLASHBACK raced better than what the line indicates last start; use underneath. (4) JAMES KENNY was game in the qualifier but would need more to get past the top choice.

Race 2

(2) L R FLYING AMMO will look to make it two straight at this level. (7) ADIOS AMIGOS four-year-old gelding has his work cut out for him from the outside. The pacer is one of few threats in the race. (3) THESHAKRSBACKNTOWN has room to improve second start back off the layoff.

Race 3

(2) HELLO CARLO thirteen-year-old takes a huge drop down in class. (1) BOUNTY gets the best post with a huge driver change. (3) HOUSE MONEY has room to improve for the top trainer.

Race 4

(3) TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR folded badly last start against tougher. The 5-year-old should find this spot much more to his liking. (5) ABERARDER MAX has been pacing faster than most of the field and looks to offer a nice price. (4) GRANDPA DON well bred pacer just missed last start at this level.

Race 5

In a very tough race to gauge, (4) CALLIT AS U SEEIT is inconsistent but a good effort makes him one of the horses to beat. (9) CABO mare doesn't win often but should be in the mix. (7) REALLY REALY SWEET might be able to get a piece underneath with a good setup.

Race 6

In the weakest field on the card, (2) MASTER JEEVES is one of few in the race that has been competitive at this level. (6) LYNARD shows a win against better a few weeks back. (9) MOVECLOSERAGAIN just missed against similar two back.

Race 7

(1) MARGARITA MAN owns lots of back class and will be much closer turning for home this week. (3) CROWNED WITH GLORY is one of the faster trotters in the race but gets sent out for a low percentage pilot. (9) FORT COMMANDER benefits from the top driver but needs racing luck.

Race 8

(2) GRANTLAND takes a significant drop in class and also picks up the top driver. (5) ACTION METRO MAX fits in with this bunch nicely with a smooth trip. (9) TRUE TO MACH former Northfield horse of the year was sharp last start but faces slightly tougher.

Race 9

(5) OH PLEASE trotting mare will look to make it two straight against tougher. The 5-year-old will offer a big price. (1) SOULFUL DELIGHT burned cash last week at this level; command a price. (9) NAFLIA circled the field last week off slow fractions.

Race 10

(2) GUISEPPE MOLLUSCA didn't miss by much last out at this level. (5) RECKLESS REBEL has been competitive against better in recent; threat. (9) SHAGUAR is just now back in racing shape and can go much faster.

Race 11

(2) BEAUTY CHIP picks up the top driver in a weak and inconsistent field. (9) SAM HAS CLASS will look to drop and pop. The 11-year-old will be used aggressively for a top driver. (1) PARNELL raced gamely last week down in class.

Race 12

In another weak field, (7) HIGH AND TIGHT is one of the few droppers in the race and made the most money in the field last year. (6) STRUNG OUT picks up a big driver change and was very close two back. (3) CAMCUN gets sent out for a provisional pilot; use underneath.

Race 13

(4) BAD BUG came up empty from the rail last start. The pacer was much better the start prior and picks back up a top driver. (1) I AM WILL beat a much weaker bunch last start; threat. (9) SOUTHWIND JOKER will offer a monster price and can hit the board with a good setup.

Race 14

(6) LIMA LUCKY needed the start last week and has room to improve against softer. (1) VAYA CON DIOS picks up the top driver with the best post. (7) CALLING A VICTORY would normally look more attractive at this level but has just been racing evenly.

Race 15

In a wide open race, (3) LIGHTNINGINTHESKY shows a few good efforts against slightly better and will offer a big price. (4) HANGON MAN has been competitive at this level; threat. (1) SILVERHILL DELIGHT gets the best post in a weak and inconsistent field.

Race 16

(9) HA HA gets sent out for capable connections against a suspect bunch. (6) CHEYENNE OXE looks to be in line for a much easier trip this week down in class. (2) TIDEWATER TOMCAT shows some competitive miles against better; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Charles Town (3rd) Pistolinmypocket, 7-2
(6th) Just Trey, 6-1


Delta Downs (1st) Malila, 5-1
(6th) Private Songster, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Starship Tribbles, 3-1
(10th) Budding, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Rankhasprivileges, 7-2
(7th) Honest Desire, 3-1


Penn National (2nd) Hadeea, 3-1
(5th) Galadriel Lady, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) I’m a Catman, 9-2
(9th) Glitzy, 6-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Tribal Zen, 5-1
(5th) Bam Party, 3-1


Turfway Park (4th) Weekend in Malibu, 7-2
(5th) Truly Trudy, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday’s six-pack

Random NFL coaches’ records on replay challenges:

— Jack Del Rio, Jax/Oak— 77 of 103, 74.8%

— Mike Mularkey, Buff/Jax/Tenn— 29 of 39, 74.4%

— Jay Gruden, Wash— 17 of 23, 73.9%

— John Fox, Car/Den/Chi— 125 of 170, 73.5%

— Bill O’Brien, Hst— 19 of 26, 73.1%

— Mike Zimmer, Minn— 15 of 21, 71.4%

No current NFL head coach has less than a 60% success rate in replay challenges.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Wednesday, January 18, 2017 CB

(561) KANSAS STATE VS (562) OKLAHOMA STATE

Play (562) OKLAHOMA STATE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Roz Wins

Roz's Wednesday, January 18, 2017, Free Pick CB

(549) VIRGINIA VS (550) BOSTON COLLEGE

Play (550) BOSTON COLLEGE

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

Here’s the Wednesday Bonus Play, and this one is on the ice.

PENGUINS at CANADIENS 7:35 PM

Take: CANADIENS -110

It’s never a snap to fade the powerful Penguins, but I think I have to do that here. Pittsburgh is off one of the craziest wins I’ve seen in ages. The Pens rallied from a 3-0 deficit, then blew 5-3 and 7-5 leads before getting the overtime win against the Capitals on Monday night. That game was absolutely insane, and wheeling back on the road 48 hours later doesn’t figure to be easy.

On the flip side, Montreal should be pretty geared up for this game. They came out on the short end of an overtime thriller the last time they faced Pittsburgh. In that game, the Habs were up one goal before the Penguins tied it with less than one minute to play in regulation. In the overtime, Montreal got tagged for having too many men on the ice when they botched a change while trying to prevent a 2-0n-1 break and Pittsburgh skated away with the win on a power play goal.

There’s no such thing as a perfect storm in handicapping, but I think this one is pretty good. I’ll play the Canadiens at close to even money on Wednesday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Wednesday, January 18, 2017 NBA

(513) MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS (514) HOUSTON ROCKETS

Take: (513) MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Reason: Your free pick for Wednesday, January 18, 2017 comes in the NBA as Bucks head to Houston to play the Rockets. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS against the Western Conference and rested. Houston is home had to play last night at Miami. It's their third game in four nights and the Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. And the Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Play Milwaukee.