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Northfield: Wednesday 1/13 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,3,4 / 2,4 / 4,5,6 / 1= $18


Best Bet: STRONG PLAYIN KING (4th)

Spot Play: GREEN ACRELOLLYPOP (5th)


Race 1

(4) GLOWING EMBERS drops in class and will offer a nice price in a wide open race. (6) BOOKEM owns wins at this level; threat. (9) TYMAL BLING also drops down but has just been racing evenly.

Race 2

(7) DREAMY FELLA is too good for this bunch with a trouble-free trip. (9) SIMPLY ROCKIN has yet to break his maiden but did finish a solid second last start. (1) CHICKENWITHABANJO looks to be in line for a nice trip up close.

Race 3

(9) DR GREEN lightly raced trotter gets sent out for capable connections and has room to improve. (3) CHAMBORO AS is just now back in racing shape and comes off two nice efforts. (1) MOLLY'S IMAGE six-year-old mare could hit the ticket at a price if she minds her manners.

Race 4

(8) STRONG PLAYIN KING is starting to put it all together and will be very tough to beat with a similar effort to his last start. (1) SOUTHSIDE CHRIS has been competitive at this level but will need more to hit the top spot. (5) FRONTIER JACK showed good improvement last week but is probably best used underneath.

Race 5

(4) GREEN ACRELOLLYPOP showed a decent burst of speed last start against slightly better. (2) CALLIT AS U SEEIT mare burned cash last week and had no excuse off easy fractions; command a price. (7) SOMEDAY LU gets a tough post and probably needs some racing luck to hit the ticket.

Race 6

In the toughest race to handicap on the card, (4) MAGIC CASINO will offer a big price in a field where the entire field is camera shy. (9) RIDGE PARK has just been racing evenly but has been competitive against better. (1) SKY LAUXMONT is the horse to beat on paper but owns only one win in well over a year; use caution.

Race 7

(9) LIMA RITCH could be primed for an improved effort third start back against a suspect bunch. (5) LISLEA PAT takes a significant drop down to the bottom level; threat. (2) JF COOKIN picks up a big driver change with a good post.

Race 8

(1) UBETTERUBETTERUBET pacer has been off over a month but gets the best post down in class. (3) JM'SDUKEOFDELIGHT gets sent out for the top trainer in a field full of question marks. (4) BOUND TO SCORE owns a good brush when timed right.

Race 9

(2) SOUTHWIND NAZARETH was the driver's choice for capable connections. (4) TSUNAMI DREAM will look to make it five straight wins; fires early. (1) TEXT WINNER well bred stallion is very fast but is coming off an eight month layoff and could need a start.

Race 10

In a wide open and evenly matched race, (4) AUTO PILOT can jump up with big efforts from time to time and is down at the bottom level. (6) STRONSKI drops down in class but has just been racing evenly; threat. (5) FOLLOW THROUGH raced well last start and can threaten with a similar effort.

Race 11

(1) BEAUTIFUL RED mare should be able to control the early pace which puts her in a great spot turning for home. (4) ADDIE PIE five-year-old owns a good move when timed right but gets sent out for a low percentage pilot. (2) GOOD ROBERTA owns a win against similar and looks to be in line for a great trip up close.

Race 12

(6) BLUE JACKET LUKE will look to make it five wins in eight starts and will be tough to beat with an easy early lead. (2) VERDICT has been racing gamely and wasn't far off the top choice last out; threat. (1) CROESUS didn't win a single start last year; use underneath.

Race 13

(6) CAMART HANOVER has been competitive against much tougher and will offer a better price than most of the contenders. (1) HALL OF MEMORIES will likely take heavy tote action dropping in class with a top driver. The pacer has a history of giving it up late. (5) PERSPECTIVE could be the sleeper in the race getting sent out first start for a new trainer.

Race 14

In a really weak field, (3) SAY IT AIN'T SOHO has been pacing faster than most of the field and just needs a smooth trip for a chance at a piece. (1) LLOYD ARNOLD gets the best post against a suspect bunch. (9) MM'S SHOCKING GUY might have found a spot he can compete; threat.

Race 15

(2) GET GOIN MEL drops down to the bottom condition and when right is better than this group. (1) DANNYS MAN sports a terrible win record but has just missed in two straight; threat. (6) MATTOX'S WESTERN has been facing much tougher but has a bunch of question marks showing multiple scratches on his lines.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delta Downs (1st) Stormin D. D., 5-1
(7th) Doodee, 10-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Little Chuck, 6-1
(9th) Scrumpdilicious, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Sexy Swingin Walk, 6-1
(7th) Zeke McCool, 6-1


Penn National (1st) Awakino Cat, 5-1
(7th) Switching to Glide, 8-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Marsh Creek, 8-1
(9th) All Aces, 10-1


Turf Paradise (3rd) Memo to Mya, 3-1
(6th) Mind the Master, 6-1
 
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Wednesday's six-pack

Six teams in country that play the best eFG% defense...........

6) San Diego State-- 42.0%-- Defense is never a problem for the Aztecs.

5) Louisville-- 41.9%-- Put Clemson on line 44 times in Sunday's upset loss.

4) Memphis-- 41.6%-- Tigers do great job at not fouling (#2 in US).

3) Vanderbilt-- 41.4%-- Commodores got off schneid in SEC last night.

2) Purdue-- 40.6%-- Key for Boilers is how well their guards play.

1) Michigan State-- 40.0%-- Izzo's team just got star Valentine back.
 
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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

567 GEORGIA TECH @ 568 NOTRE DAME 9:00 PM

Take: GEORGIA TECH +6.5

Brian Gregory is on most “hot seat” lists as far as this season’s most under the gun coaches goes. That’s not hard to fathom. Georgia Tech has gone 20-52 in the ACC since Gregory came on board, and if there’s not some substantial progress made this season, the consensus is the Yellow Jackets will be making a change this spring.

There are some positive signs for this year’s crew. Aside from a bad misstep against East Tennessee State, Georgia Tech is winning the games they’re supposed to win. But it’s also apparent that the Yellow Jackets will probably need an upset or two along the way to get to the NIT at season’s end, and I think that’s what it’s going to take for Gregory to stay employed.

This is a game Georgia Tech should have circled as winnable. They don’t match up badly against Notre Dame, as these two teams have some similar strengths and weaknesses. Plus, there are a couple of key aspects that the Yellow Jackets actually are better at than are the Fighting Irish.

I also see the road team arriving in decent form. They’re off the confidence building victory over Virginia, and gave North Carolina a very good game at Chapel Hill. There was a not as close as the final score indicated loss to Pittsburgh in between, but that’s also a Panthers team that just led wire to wire in a Saturday win at South Bend that only got close at the finish.

Mike Bray’s team will probably do what it usually does, which is running a very efficient offense and hoping the opponent has a bad shooting night. This is not a good defensive team and unless Georgia Tech suddenly gets sloppy with the basketball, they should be able to work for their sharif open looks as well.

This is likely going to be a pretty high-scoring game, and if each team plays to its norm, it looks like a one or two-possession contest to boot. The points are high enough for me to go ahead with a play on Georgia Tech plus the points.
 
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Jim Feist

(513) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS (514) DENVER NUGGETS 9:05 PM EST

Bonus Play: (513) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, January 13, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Golden State Warriors and Nuggets in Denver. Denver doesn't play much defense, 21st in points allowed and field goal shooting allowed. The Nuggets are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 2 days rest and they face a powerhouse Golden State offense, No. 1 in scoring, No. 2 in field goal shooting defense! The Warriors are 20-7 against the Western Conference, plus 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Marreese Speights shook off 36 minutes of rust to score the first six points of the fourth quarter to help the Warriors take control and go on to their 36th straight regular-season home win, 111-103 over the Heat on Monday night. Curry scored 31 despite an off-shooting night, Draymond Green added 22 points and 12 rebounds. And the Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Denver.
 
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Ben Burns

SMU vs East Carolina

Bonus Play East Carolina

I’m playing on the East Carolina Pirates as my Bonus Play.

The Pirates welcome a controversial SMU side to Williams Arena at Minges Coliseum Wednesday night, with the Mustangs riding a drama-filled 15-0 start to the season. Southern Methodist, on top of all its academic violations and suspensions, got a scare from head coach Larry Brown, who missed the second half of the UCF game due to vertigo. The Mustangs have failed to cover in three straight games and while ECU is likely out of its league, there is value in the home side getting this many points Wednesday. The Pirates average 77.5 points at home – compared to just 61.5 points per road game – and have played up to their competition by covering in five of their last six matchups against opponents with a win percentage of .600 or higher.

I’m playing on East Carolina as my Bonus Play Wednesday.
 
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Mike Lundin

Jazz vs Blazers

5* NBA Free Pick Portland Trail Blazers

This looks like a good spot to wrap up Wednesday night with a play on the Portland Trail Blazers to defeat the Utah Jazz home at Moda Center. Utah is off back-to-back wins against the Heat and the Lakers since Rudy Gobert returned to the starting lineup, but I'm not sure how much they'll be helped by his presence against a Portland team that makes most of its damage through its backcourt. Damian Lillard has averaged 35.5 points, seven 3-pointers and 9.5 assists in his last two games and C.J. McCollum added 22 points in Sunday's 115-110 upset win against the Thunder. Lillard scored 35 points when Portland won 108-92 at Utah on Nov. 4, and we can note that the Trail Blazers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record while the Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games overall.
 
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CPAW...need some help if you can. I really need DCI INDEX and their site is screwed up not updated again today! Did the same exact thing last Wednesday!! For some reason it messes up on Wednrsdays! It doesn't update the correct day and has the previous games from the day before. Do you have any type of contact info for them?? Thanks
 

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Thanks for making it easy to read all the previews in one place CPAW.
 

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