Wednesday 1/11/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday’s games

Knicks lost eight of last nine games, are 1-1 as road favorites. Over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Philly won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread); they’re 10-6 as home underdogs. 76ers’ last four home games stayed under the total. 76ers lost their last five games with New York (1-4 vs spread); Knicks won by 10-7 points in last two visits here. Four of last five series games went over.

Wizards won six of last eight games, are 6-4 as road underdogs. Over is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. Boston won four of last five games, covered four of last five as a home favorite. Over is 9-1-1 in their last eleven games. Celtics won four of last five games with Washington; three of last four series games stayed under total. Wizards lost last three visits to Beantown (0-3 vs spread).

Grizzlies are 3-5 in last eight road games, 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games went over. Thunder won/covered four of last five home games; they’re 9-2 in last 11 games as a home favorite. Three of their last four games went over. Favorites covered last seven Memphis-OkC games; Grizzlies are 5-3 in last eight series games, but they lost three of last four visits here (0-4 vs spread). Three of last four series games went over total.

Rockets won their last nine games; they’re 9-4 as road favorites. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Minnesota lost four of last five games; they covered last five tries as a home underdog. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Houston won its last eight games with Minnesota but Wolves covered four of last five; Rockets won last four visits to Twin Cities, by 12-2-24-2 points. Nine of last ten series games went over the total.

Cavaliers split their last four games; they’re 6-3 in last nine road games, 0-4 vs spread if they played night before. Over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Portland lost nine of last 11 home games; they’re 1-4 as home underdogs. Under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Home side won last six Cleveland-Portland games; Cavaliers lost last three visits to Portland, by 12-19-29 points. Four of last six series games stayed under total.

Magic lost five of last six games; 11-7 as road underdogs- their last three games stayed under the total. Clippers won/covered their last four games; 9-7-1 as home favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Clippers won their last six games with Orlando (4-1-1 vs spread); Magic lost their last three visits here (0-2-1 vs spread). Six of last eight series games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

In the Paint - Week 10
By Joe Williams

Trouble Bruin
UCLA slipped up 89-87 in Oregon on Dec. 28, but they have rebounded with three straight victories. However, the Bruins have been struggling against the number lately, going 0-5 ATS over the past five games after a 9-0 ATS run from Nov. 20 to Dec. 17. After a favorite of 19 or more points, UCLA is just 2-5 ATS. Getting into league play isn't good for UCLA, as they're just 1-10 ATS in their past 11 league games. UCLA is also a dismal 1-5 ATS in their past six outings on the road. Remember that for UCLA's next two games at Colorado on Jan. 12, and at Utah on Jan. 14.

Top of the ACC
Florida State has ascended to the top of the Atlantic Coast Conference, and they'll remain on the top of the heap for the foreseeable future after blasting Duke 88-72 in a battle of Top 10 clubs in Tallahassee on Tuesday night. The Seminoles have now rattled off 12 consecutive victories, last tasting defeat Nov. 24 against Temple on a neutral site court. FSU has covered four in a row, and eight of their past 10 games. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their past five instances as a favorite or 10 or fewer points. They have a big test at North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. FSU passed their first big road test of the season, winning on New Year's Eve at Virginia by a 60-58 count as nine-point underdogs.

Big East Clash
Butler will head to Omaha on Wednesday for a Big East clash against Creighton. The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with a three-game win and cover streak following a shocking loss at St. John's on Dec. 29. Butler enters 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games as an underdog, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 league games. They're also 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 games on the road. Creighton has been money as a home favorite, going 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games. They're also 22-7 ATS in their past 29 games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 overall at home. Like Butler, Creighton has been cover kings within the league, going 21-9-1 ATS in the past 31 Big East affairs. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series, with the 'under' 4-1 in the past five.

Duck, Duck...Lose
Oregon has been on a roll to kick off the Pac-12 schedule, going a perfect 4-for-4 straight up and against the number. That includes road wins at Washington and Washington State in the past two outings. In fact, Oregon has won the past three games by an average of 24.7 points per game. Next up will be a game against Oregon State on Saturday, a team playing horrible basketball this season. The Beavs have started out 0-4 in the Pac-12, and they're just 1-9 straight up over the past 10 outings. Their poor offense is the reason for their struggles, and they won't be able to do much against an Oregon scoring defense which ranks 36th in the natiuon (64.5 PPG) while holding the opposition to just 38.8 percent from the field, which is 20th in the country.

Mary, Mary...Why You Buggin'?
St. Mary's has been on quite the roll, winning eight straight games since their only setback of the season at home against Texas-Arlington back on Dec. 8. However, the Gaels have been hurting bettors at the window, posting a rather marginal 3-3-1 ATS mark over the past seven games after opening the season 4-1 ATS in the first five games. St. Mary's hopes to stay hot on the road, as they head to Portland first before a showdown at Gonzaga. The Gaels are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four road outings this season, and the 'under' is 3-1 in those games away from home.

Other Teams to Watch

Fordham heads to Davidson on Wednesday looking to turn things around. They have dropped three in a row, and nine of the past 10 since a 5-1 start. The Rams are also just 0-7-1 ATS over the past eight games.

Idaho State has been a good team to pick on lately. They have dropped four in a row straight up, and they're 0-5 ATS over the past five outings. If you want to make money, the 'under' is also 6-0 in their past six games, as the Bengals rank 321st in the nation in scoring offense at just 65.4 points per game.

Long Beach State has rattled off victories in four of their past six games, but they're struggling against the number. The 49ers are 0-5 ATS over the past five outings.

Northeastern of the Colonial Athletic Association will host Drexel Thursday night, as they look for their eight straight win. During the streak they have a win at Michigan State, as well as at Harvard, Oakland and Vermont. They also pushed aside the Dragons of Drexel by a 75-70 score in overtime on Jan. 2, just covering a 4 1/2-point number. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their past six outings, and the 'under' has hit in four of their past five.

Northern Iowa has been a fairly dependable team in the past few years for bettors. UNI is dependable this season, too, but for different reasons. The Panthers have dropped six straight overall, and they're 0-7 ATS over the past seven games while going 1-11 ATS over the past 12 outings.

Tulane has dropped five straight after their 80-59 setback against Memphis on Sunday, and they have posted a dismal 0-4 ATS mark over the past four games, and a 1-7 ATS record over the past eight. Total bettors have been cashing in on the Green Wave, too, as the 'over' is 5-2 over the past seven outings.

UTEP has really struggled in Conference USA play, dropped their first three league games. The Miners have dropped 12 in a row since their last win against Western Michigan way back on Nov. 18, and UTEP is 0-6 ATS over the past six outings.

Wofford hosts Furman Saturday in SoCon play. The Terriers haven't been ticking off many victories lately, dropping three in a row, and four of the past five. However, Wofford has been money against the spread, going 9-1 ATS over the past 10 outings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-2) at Michigan State Spartans (11-6)

Date: January 11, 2017 7:00 PM EDT

Richard Pitino doesn't particularly care that the Minnesota men's basketball team is ranked for the first time in nearly four years.

The 34-year-old son of Louisville coach Rick Pitino has guided the Gophers to a 15-2 record, good enough for them to slip into the latest rankings at No. 24. It's an unusual occurrence for the Gophers, who haven't been ranked since early February 2013.

Pitino is more concerned about getting an NCAA Tournament bid and winning championships.

"Rankings are for the fans," he said. "That's not our goal."

Their coach's indifference notwithstanding, the Golden Gophers get their first chance to enhance their status at Michigan State's Breslin Center on Wednesday. Minnesota, which is tied atop the Big Ten standings with the Spartans and two other teams, carries a three-game winning streak into East Lansing - including a 78-68 victory over Ohio State on Sunday.

Freshman guard Amir Coffey's 19 points and five assists led the way. Coffey is the team's second-leading scorer behind junior guard Nate Mason, who averages 14.4 points and 5.7 assists.

Considering the Gophers were 18-15 two seasons ago and 8-23 last season, Minnesota's turnaround has been dramatic.

"We had to take it from a lot of people. We had to band together and get closer because of it," Pitino told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "I'm not saying that the criticism was wrong - rightfully so. That's what happens when you lose games. You deserve to get criticized. And when you don't do your job off the court, you deserve to get criticized. But with that being said, we had to sit there and we had to take it. We're not a boastful program. So we just wanted our talking to be done on the court."

Michigan State (11-6, 3-1) handed the Gophers one of their two losses, edging them 75-74 in overtime at Williams Arena on Dec. 27. Freshman center Nick Ward led the Spartans that night with 22 points and 10 rebounds.

Coach Tom Izzo believes it will be even more difficult to beat Minnesota the second time around.

"I think they're a better team than they were even two weeks ago," he said. "I think they are getting some confidence. ... This will be a difficult game. We're not going to have many that aren't difficult, but I still think that this is one of the top three or four teams in the league right now and maybe playing as good as anybody in the league, as you saw with wins at Northwestern and at Purdue. "

The Spartans suffered their first conference loss on Saturday, falling to unranked Penn State 72-63 at The Palestra in Philadelphia. Izzo is starting four freshmen, partly because of injuries to some veteran players prior to the season.

"It has been an interesting year for these guys," he said. "Every time we take two steps forward, we seem to take one step backwards. I guess that is kind of the way it is going to be a little bit until we get more consistent."

Once Miles Bridges returns to form, the Spartans should develop that consistency that Izzo is seeking. The prized freshman forward was the team's leading scorer and rebounder until he suffered an ankle injury that cost him seven games. Bridges is averaging 5.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists in 22.0 minutes since returning to action two games ago.

"He's healthy. He will continue to improve with practice, but he is nowhere near the guy that we left six weeks ago," Izzo said. "That is going to be a work in progress. There are some adjustments we're going to have to make and that he's going to have to make. He's got to get back in shape and we have to learn how to play with him again."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pittsburgh Panthers (12-4) at Louisville Cardinals (13-3)

Date: January 11, 2017 7:00 PM EDT

LOUISVILLE -- What happens when outstanding offense meets strong defense? That will be the question when No. 14 Louisville (13-3) takes on Pittsburgh (12-4) Wednesday night at 7 p.m. in an Atlantic Coast Conference game at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky.

Pittsburgh senior forward Michael Young averages 22.3 points per game. His teammate, senior guard Jamel Artis, averages 21.5. The Panther duo ranks first and second in the ACC in scoring. Louisville is the top defense in the ACC, holding league foes to just 62.7 points per game. Something's got to give.

"They have two guys who are probably the best scoring tandem in college basketball," Louisville coach Rick Pitino said. "They not only have great scorers, but great 3-point shooters."

Young has scored 20 or more points in 10 games. Artis scored 23 in the loss to Syracuse Saturday and has scored 20-plus in four straight games.

Pitt has experience busting great defenses. The Panthers scored 88 points against a Virginia team that had been holding teams to less than 53 points per game this season.

"This is an extremely unique basketball team because they have so much size," Pitino said. "They go 6-9, 6-8, 6-8, 6-7, 6-6 in the starting lineup. That is going to be very, very difficult to prepare for."

Young, in particular, is a matchup problem. Pitt doesn't list a center on its starting lineup, choosing instead to call the 6-foot-9, 235-pound Young a forward.

"He shoots the three and he's a great one-on-one player," Pitino said of Young. "Artis and Young have as good of a 16-foot jumper as anybody in college basketball."

While Pitt's offense could cause Louisville trouble, it's the defense that first-year Pitt coach Kevin Stallings is worried about.

"We have pride in our offense and we have pride in scoring points, but we don't have a collective pride in our defense," Stallings said.

He wants the Panthers to stop giving up so many easy buckets. Pitt is last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy's statistical ratings.

"Our defensive play and defensive pride has to go up a few notches if we're going to be the kind of team we want to be," Stallings said.

Pitino said Pitt's defense is a concern because the Panthers switch every pick since all the Pitt players have similar size and athleticism.

"They switch every option," Pitino explained. "Teams haven't been able to run but about 5 percent of their offensive sets. They take everyone out of their offensive sets because you can't switch to a mismatch. ... They are a great offensive basketball team, but I have not seen too many teams being taken out of their offensive sets like Pittsburgh does."

For Pittsburgh, Louisville is its third ranked foe in the last four games. The Panthers took both No. 24 Notre Dame and No. 11 Virginia to overtime, losing by a point to the Irish and beating Virginia by 12.

By comparison, Louisville started its league schedule with a 61-53 home loss to Virginia and a 77-70 loss at Notre Dame. The good news for Louisville is that 6-7 starting forward Deng Adel should be back.

Adel took a knee to the head against Georgia Tech and left the game with a concussion. He was evaluated and missed two days of practice, but should be able to play Wednesday night.

"We are back to wearing helmets again in practice, but the good news is (reserve center) Matz (Stockman) and Deng Adel will be available for the Pitt game, but he won't start."

The Cardinals should have a height advantage in the low block. Louisville moved 6-10 sophomore forward Ray Spalding and 7-0 junior center Anas Mahmoud into the lineup four games ago and things seems to be improving on the offensive end for Louisville in the post.

"I think Ray right now is playing great basketball," Pitino said. "He is becoming a great interior passer. He and Anas have a great chemistry working together. Ray passes well and Anas has good hands and can catch passes."

NOTES: Both teams are 1-2 in ACC player. ... Louisville has won eight straight games against Pittsburgh. Louisville leads the series 12-5 (7-1 in Louisville, 5-1 in Pittsburgh and 0-3 in neutral site games). Louisville is second in the nation in blocked shots, averaging 6.9 per game. The Cardinals had 12 blocks last game against Georgia Tech. Louisville and Pittsburgh were rivals in the Big East prior to both making a move to the ACC. Louisville has won more games at Pittsburgh's home court than any other team (other than Pittsburgh, of course), but the Panthers have only won one game in Louisville, a 61-57 win on Jan. 15, 2006.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels (14-3) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-6)

Date: January 11, 2017 8:00 PM EDT

This is like coming full circle for North Carolina junior Theo Pinson.

When the No. 11 Tar Heels play Wednesday night at Wake Forest, it will be almost two full years since he suffered a broken foot at Lawrence Joel Coliseum and missed the next 10 days.

Now, he's freshly back from another broken foot and ready to make an impact for the rest of the season.

"He just gives us more versatility out there," Tar Heels swingman Justin Jackson said.

Pinson's backcourt presence is something the Tar Heels have been anxious to have available. He played for the first time Sunday against North Carolina State, logging 13 minutes in the 107-56 rout.

"I wanted to affect the game in some way and I think I did," he said. "(I want) to get back in rhythm."

He was scoreless in his first game of the season, but he snatched five rebounds, supplied five assists and made four steals. He took three shots from the field and missed his lone free throw.

"When he gets involved and he's playing, people feed off of that," North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. "He does understand the game. ... Theo is going to talk so he does need to do the right thing when he's on the court, too."

Pinson received a huge ovation when he entered Sunday's home game. With the Wake Forest game in Winston-Salem, it will be his closest outing of the season to his hometown of Greensboro.

Pinson was injured during the preseason in October, and has been rehabbing the injury.

"I wanted to get him some minutes. I had no idea how he would play," Williams said. "Probably what he did is about what I expected. "He is a person who brings a high motor out there. I just think he needs a couple of weeks here when he gets everything rolling."

Pinson was a likely starter for the Tar Heels (14-3, 2-1 ACC) if not for the preseason injury, so he could move to that role.

Wake Forest, despite coming off Sunday night's loss at Virginia, is one victory away from matching last season's win total.

Forward John Collins has provided the biggest production for Wake Forest (10-6, 1-3) this season, but with North Carolina the opponent he'll be surrounded in the lane by the nation's top rebounding team. Collins has had difficulty at times because of foul trouble.

"It's about understanding it," Collins said of his efforts to stay on the court.

Wake Forest was tied with Virginia until a late-game burst from the Cavaliers. That was the latest rough span late in a game for the Demon Deacons.

"It has been a pattern around here for us at Wake Forest," guard Keyshawn Woods said of the failure to turn in strong finishes.

The Demon Deacons are content with keeping games tight.

"We've got to be able to close out the game in those situations, and a lot of it is going to come down to defensively being able to stay in front of the basketball," coach Danny Manning said.

This will be North Carolina's third ACC road game. The Tar Heels own a 158-66 all-time record against Wake Forest for the most victories against any foe.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Butler Bulldogs (14-2) at Creighton Bluejays (15-1)

Date: January 11, 2017 9:00 PM EDT

OMAHA, Neb. -- When coach Greg McDermott and Creighton's players were asked about the honor bestowed on the Bluejays' basketball program Monday, they did not recoil thinking it's bad to be proud of the highest ranking in school history.

Creighton moved up two spots two No. 8 in both the Associated Press and USA Today coaches polls after victories last week over St. John's and Providence to improve to 15-1. That's the highest ranking ever achieved by a Creighton team.

"There's been a lot of expectations from the start of the season," McDermott said. "And yet, at least up to this point, we've been able to live up and maybe exceed some of those expectations. Obviously, it's more meaningful in two months, but it's a nice honor for our program."

McDermott said the players gave themselves a cheer in the locker room before practice Monday. They also realize that one bad stretch can make people quickly forget about that accomplishment.

"Our thought for today was ego is the drug of stupidity," McDermott said. "We explained exactly what that means. You just have to understand that it's nice to have people patting you on the back and congratulate you, but at the same time there's been a reason we've been able to get where we are."

That's why the Jays have been hard at work preparing for Wednesday's 8 p.m. CST home game against No. 12 Butler that is scheduled to be televised on Fox Sports 1. After all, the Bulldogs did something Creighton wasn't able to do a few days earlier -- upset previous No. 1-ranked Villanova.

The Bluejays fell 80-70 to the now No. 3-ranked Wildcats on New Year's Eve. On Jan. 4 Butler handed Villanova its first loss, a 66-58 home victory that set off a Hinkle Fieldhouse celebration.

McDermott said the Bluejays know if they want to get back on the winning track at CenturyLink Center Wednesday, they need to find ways to stay hot offensively and put pressure on a smothering Butler defense.

"They do a great job of stopping you in transition and that's where it kind of starts with them," McDermott said. "They're going to defend you. They don't make a lot of fundamental mistakes defensively. They're very true to what they do, and you have to earn it.

"We just have to make sure on the defensive end that we make them earn it as well. Those eight or nine mistakes that we made against Villanova could have made the difference. We have to show from Villanova to Butler that we can clean some of those game prep-type mistakes up."

Creighton is still one of the nation's most powerful offensive teams, averaging 87.5 points per game (11th nationally) while leading the country in field-goal percentage (53.7) and fifth nationally from 3-point range (42.1).

The 14-2 Bulldogs simply don't give up those kinds of numbers. Opponents have made just 42.1 percent of their field-goal attempts this season and have shot a paltry 29.9 percent from 3-point land.

Butler has two starters averaging in double figures -- forwards Kelan Martin (17.4) and Andrew Chrabascz (11.9). Both players are averaging five rebounds per game, as is forward Tyler Wideman.

Both McDermott and Creighton guard Marcus Foster said a focused approach at both ends of the court is necessary for the Bluejays to begin this stretch of three games in six days on the right note.

"Butler's got some physical players," McDermott said. "Defensively we've progressed. We're a much better defensive team than we were a month ago, and for us to get where we want to get in the postseason and in the Big East tournament, we're going to have to be better a month from now."

After Wednesday's game Creighton hosts Truman State on Saturday in its final nonconference game of the season before traveling to Cincinnati to play No. 15 Xavier on Monday.

Foster said he watched the second half of Butler's win over Villanova and was impressed with how they stuck to their style of play and didn't get rattled by the Wildcats.

"I like how Butler played that," Foster said. "They played disciplined and kept playing their game. Even when Villanova made that run, they stuck with it."

While the success to this point has been nice, Foster said the Bluejays have a long way to go.

"It definitely makes us feel good as a program," Foster said. "We have to go back to work and keep grinding so we can get even higher. With this team we want so much more, and it just motivates everybody to keep working harder and harder every day."

After its home victory over Villanova, Butler had to struggle to get past Georgetown 85-76 in Washington on Saturday.

"It wasn't always like we wanted it to be, but much like it is on the road in most situations, you're going to have to weather that," Butler coach Chris Holtmann said.

The Bulldogs face a tougher road challenge in Creighton, and they will need scoring from a number of players.

"I think that's why our team is special," Kethan Savage said. "We come out and believe in each other. We know everyone has the ability to make plays."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Wednesday’s games

South Carolina won two of last three games with Tennessee, after Vols had won previous 15 series games. Gamecocks lost 11 of last 12 visits to Knoxville. Carolina allowed 64.5 pts/game winning first two SEC games by 6-11 points; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Georgia, South Florida, losing by 16 at Memphis. Tennessee allowed 82.5 pts/game in losing last two games, to Arkansas/Florida; Vols are 0-5 vs top 50 teams; their best win is over #62 Texas A&M . SEC favorites of less than 5 points are 1-10 vs spread so far this season.*Tennessee dismissed 6th-man Mostella from program yesterday; he scored 16 pts/game in Vols’ last five games.

Georgia is 10-5 vs schedule #38; they’re 2-2 in true road games, winning at Ga Tech/Auburn, losing at Oakland/Clemson. Dawgs are 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with best win over UL-Lafayette. Georgia won five of last six games with Ole Miss, with five of six games decided by 5 or less points. Dawgs won two of last three visits to Oxford. SEC home favorites are 5-13, 0-9 if laying 4 or less points. Ole Miss is 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with win over Memphis; they lost two of their first three SEC games, losing by 23 at home to Kentucky.

Michigan State rallied back from down 14 in second half to win 75-74 in OT at Minnesota in Big 14 opener Dec 27; Gophers outscored them 31-10 on foul line (MSU was 10-22 on line) but still lost for 8th time in last 10 series games vs Spartans, with three of last four meetings going to OT. Gophers lost six of last seven visits here, with last two going OT. Big 14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread. Minnesota is 3-0 since that loss, winning by 9-4-10 points; they are 15-2 vs schedule #67- they’re 2-1 in true road games, with only loss by 8 at Florida State.

Dayton won its last five games, winning first three A-14 tilts by 11-16-3 points; they’re 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at Alabama, 16 at St Boneventure. UMass was 10-3 pre-conference but lost first three league games by 12-5-17 points, giving up 85.3 pts/game. Minutemen are #334 experience team playing pace #15; they’re 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 3 over Temple. Home side won last seven Dayton-UMass games; Flyers lost last four visits here, by 19-5-10-2 points. A-14 home underdogs are 2-3 against the spread.

Louisville split its four games since they beat Kentucky, with both wins by 15 points; Cardinals host Duke Saturday, better not look past this opponent that they’ve beaten eight times in row, with three of last four wins by 12+ points. Panthers lost last six visits here, last two by 13-18 points. Pittsburgh lost two of first three ACC games, with two of three games going OT; they split two true road games, losing by 11 at Syracuse, winning at Maryland. ACC home favorites are 10-4 vs spread, 2-2 if laying double digits.

Seton Hall outscored Marquette 6-0 over final 0:38 to nip Golden Eagles 69-66 in first meeting of season 10 days ago. Pirates won eight of last nine games overall, but lost by 14 at Creighton in only true road game in that stretch; Pirates won by 8 at Iowa in only other true road game. Seton Hall won last three series games, after losing seven of previous eight- they won last two visits here by 10-20 points, after losing previous seven. Marquette lost last two games by 3-12 points after a 10-3 start; Big East home favorites are 10-2 vs spread.

North Carolina is 4-1 since losing to Kentucky in Las Vegas; Tar Heels hammered NC State by 51 Sunday in a game delayed a day by weather. Carolina is 1-2 in true road games, losing at Ga Tech, Indiana, winning by 15 at Hawai’i. UNC won seven of last eight games with Wake Forest, winning last three by 33-16-15 points; Tar Heels won three of last four visits here, with wins by 9-15-16 points. Wake Forest lost four of last six games, with all four losses to top 25 teams- they lost by 5 at home to Clemson. ACC home underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread.

Memphis won its last three games by 16-9-21 points; they’re 2-1 in true road games, losing by 8 at Ole Miss, winning at Oklahoma/Tulane. Tigers are forcing turnovers 21.8% of time in AAC play. Tulsa lost three of last four games, scoring 59.8 pts/game they lost 7 of top 8 scorers from LY, are turning ball over 23.4% of time this year. Memphis swept Tulsa LY by 10-22 points, after they lost to Hurricane twice year before- they split last two visits here. Favorites are 11-1 in AAC games with a single digit spread; AAC home dogs are 0-8.

TCU is 1-2 in Big X after an 11-1 pre-conference slate; Frogs are 1-2 in true road games, losing by 15 at SMU, 12 at West Virginia, with a win at UNLV.* Texas won eight of last nine games with TCU, winning last four here, by 17-12-23-17 points. Longhorns are 7-8 vs schedule #51; they’ve lost at home to Tex-Arlington, Kent State. Texas is #343 experience team is playing #188 pace, not the way Smart usually coaches. Texas is 3-4 in games decided by 6 or less points. Big X home teams are 3-1 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points.

Michigan starts out 1-2 in Big 14; three games were decided by total of 13 points- opponents shot 54.7% on arc in those games. Wolverines are 0-3 in true road games, losing by 15 at So Carolina, 18 at UCLA, 3 at Iowa. Michigan won 10 of last 11 games with Illinois, winning last two by 18-10 points; they won four of last five visits here, with all four wins by 10+ points. Illinois is also 1-2 in conference, after a 10-3 mark before league play; Illini are shooting just 27.6% on arc in league games. Big 14 home underdogs are 4-2 this season.

Butler has had airplane trouble coming home on its last two road trips; are they squeamish about traveling? Bulldogs won last three games after getting upset at St John’s; they’re 5-0 vs top 50 teams. Creighton is 15-1 vs schedule #58; their only loss was to Villanova at home by 10. Bluejays are 2-1 vs top 50 teams, beating Wisconsin/Seton Hall- they’re shooting 42.4% on arc (#4). Butler won three of last four games with Creighton, winning by 3-2-13 points. Bulldogs lost two of last three visits to Omaha. Big East home favorites are 10-2 vs spread.

Temple has very little depth; they played 7 guys more than 5:00 in last game, a 19-point win. Owls lost three of last four games; they’re 0-3 in road games outside of Philly, losing by 3-24-14 points. Temple won four of last five games with UConn, winning last two visits to Nutmeg State by 2-4 points. Huskies beat Temple 77-62 in AAC tourney LY. UConn lost four of last five games but beat UCF by 15 last time out; AAC teams are shooting 50% inside arc vs Huskies, unusual for UConn. AAC single digit home favorites are 5-1 vs spread.

Iowa State won its last seven games with Oklahoma State, winning last three in Stillwater by 1-5-5 points. Five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points. Cyclones are 0-2 in true road games, losing by 14 at Iowa, 2 at Baylor- loss in Waco was ISU’s only loss in their last five games. OSU is 0-3 in big X, losing by 17-3-4 points after a 10-2 record vs non-conference schedule #121. Cowboys forced lot of turnovers out of conference, but are forcing them only 17.3% of time in Big X games. Big X home favorites are 3-8-1 vs spread.


Wednesday’s tips

Wyoming Cowboys, -4.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Jan. 11 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Now that the college football season is officially over, most bettors really turn their focus to college basketball. I can promise you one thing: there won't be an Alabama-Clemson rematch in this year's basketball National Championship Game in Phoenix. The Crimson Tide haven't made the Big Dance since 2012 or won a game in it since 2006. Coach Avery Johnson has the program on the right track, but it's not likely to be an NCAA Tournament team this year. Ditto Clemson, which hasn't made the tournament since 2011. The Tigers definitely have sporting bragging rights now, however, as they also beat the Tide in basketball on Dec. 18 in Birmingham.

No. 24 Minnesota at Michigan State ( -2 )

Tips at 7 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network. Minnesota joined the AP Top 25 on Monday, the first time the program has been ranked since February 2013, Tubby Smith's final season. Pretty nice coaching job there for Richard Pitino considering Minnesota was 8-23 last year and had a bunch of players get into trouble off the court. But: "Rankings mean absolutely, 1,000 percent nothing to me," Pitino said Monday. The Gophers come off a 78-68 win over Ohio State. Amir Coffey had 19 points on 7-for-11 shooting. It was only Minnesota's second win in the past 12 in the series. Coffey was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week on Monday. In Minnesota's four Big Ten games, Coffey is averaging 15.2 points on 51.2 percent shooting. He's the No. 2 freshman scorer in the conference.

Michigan State's four-game winning streak ended in a 72-63 loss at Penn State in Philadelphia on Saturday. The Spartans led just once, 27 seconds into the game, and trailed by as many as 14 in the first half. Penn State shot 60 percent in the opening half against an MSU defense that entered the game holding its first three Big Ten opponents to a league-low 38.6 percent. The Spartans were also outrebounded, and winning on the boards is their calling card. "We just did not feel we came out ready to play," Coach Tom Izzo said. "And that is my responsibility. Blame me for that. And I'm gonna fix it." Sparty goes for the season sweep here as it won at Minnesota 75-74 in OT on Dec. 27 to open conference play. Minnesota led by 13 at halftime.

Key trends: The Gophers are 3-10 against the spread in their past 13 Wednesday games. MSU is 15-3 ATS in its past 18 vs. the Big Ten. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings.

I'm leaning: MSU.

Pittsburgh at No. 14 Louisville (-13)

ACC game at 7 p.m. ET with no national TV (WatchESPN). Pitt upset No. 11 Virginia last Wednesday but then lost 77-66 at unranked Syracuse on Saturday. The Orange held the Panthers to a season-low 21 points in the opening half of play and led by as many as 28 points at the three-minute mark. Pitt allowed a season-high shooting percentages in field goals (28-for-54) and 3-pointers (14-for-27). Jamel Artis finished with 23 points to lead the Panthers, who never got closer than 15 until the final three minutes. Michael Young, who entered the game leading the ACC in scoring at 22.7 ppg, finished with 17 points on 6-for-15 shooting. Artis (19) and Young (15) combined for 34 points in the second half.

Could be a look-ahead game for Louisville as it hosts No. 7 Duke on Saturday. The Cardinals are off a 65-50 win at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Donovan Mitchell scored 13 of his 20 points in the second half. However, sophomore forward Deng Adel suffered a concussion -- yet is expected to play Wednesday. The Aussie is averaging 10.4 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Adel, a sophomore, took a hard spill after a layup try in the first half. Coach Rick Pitino said Adel and freshman V.J. King's playing time will likely stay the same. Adel averages 27.9 minutes per game, while King plays 13.8 minutes per game off the bench. It's the third concussion suffered by a U of L player this season. Louisville has an 12-5 series advantage over Pittsburgh and the Cardinals have won the last eight matchups.

Key trends: Pitt is 2-6 ATS in its past eight on the road. Louisville is 4-1 ATS in its past five at home. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings.

I'm leaning: Louisville.

No. 12 Butler at No. 8 Creighton (-2)

This Big East showdown is the only matchup of ranked teams on Wednesday. It tips off at 9 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1. If I'm Butler's players, I'm terrified to fly to Omaha. Last month, the plane the team was on made an emergency landing in Pittsburgh after playing at St. John's. On Saturday, the team's plane had mechanical issues and it flew home Sunday instead of Saturday after playing Georgetown. Butler beat the Hoyas 85-76 in overtime despite only shooting 39 percent from the field. Thirteen of Butler's 17 points in the extra session came at the free throw line as Georgetown went 3-for-11 from the field in the OT.

Creighton's ranking is the highest in school history in the AP Top 25. The Bluejays' previous best ranking was No. 9, which they most recently earned on Dec. 19, 2016. Creighton won at Providence 78-64 on Saturday. The Friars missed seven straight shots during a field goal drought that spanned 7:06 in the second half as the Bluejays' lead grew as big as 19 before PC scored the game's final five points. Justin Patton had 20 points and tied his career-high with three blocks for the Bluejays. Creighton, always one of the country's best offensive teams, shot 55.9 percent for the game. Creighton has now won a Big East road game against every current league foe except Georgetown (0-3).

Key trends: Butler is 14-3-1 ATS in its past 18 vs. teams with a winning record. Creighton is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 at home. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: Butler.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 4:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 69 - Purse:$9500 - CD 3-6YO NW 2 EXT PM RACES OR $13,500 LIFE MORNING LINE: 7-2-6-3
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 7 ELMO BLATCH 5/2
# 5 BATTLESHOE CALEB 6/1
# 1 ROYAL RIGHT 15/1

ELMO BLATCH is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the handicapping team. Could be the best in the group of horses here, showing nice stats of late. Average speed is a solid 72. Always tremendous driver/conditioner twosome. 42 percent winners when they work together. With this driver/trainer hooking up, investors often make cash. ROI is tremendous with this duo. BATTLESHOE CALEB - The 5 post sports a much higher than average win clip at The Meadows. Fantastic driver Yoder should find the pace of today's race to this gelding's liking - could be a good wager. ROYAL RIGHT - Has a very promising shot in this contest, if she can race to her back class. With this driver-conditioner hooking up, investors often make some profits. Return on investment is very good with this tandem.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 8:14 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$6500 - FILLIES AND MARES OPEN 5 NO. 4 RIVER RISING FIRST TIME LASIX HENNESSEY PICKED 2 OVER 1
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 DRAGON TOWN 7/2
# 2 MACH THIS WAY 5/2
# 5 ANDRO MADI 12/1

Hard not to like DRAGON TOWN as the top pick this time. Take a look at this harness racer's avg speed figure of 81 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a really strong bet. This contender looks very good considering the high class ratings. Not a good idea to throw out of any exotics. The group noted a clear-cut contest out of this harness racer last time. Hoping for a repeat of that to dominate. MACH THIS WAY - Has a formidable shot in this event, if she can perform to her back racing class. Recorded a 76 speed rating last out. A duplicate event here should get the triumph here. ANDRO MADI - Take a good look at making this horse your win wager based on very high win rate alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 60

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 WEEKEND MELODY 5/1

# 7 CLAIRE B. C. 15/1

# 12 RED SOLE DIVA 7/2

WEEKEND MELODY looks to be the wager in here. RED SOLE DIVA - Has garnered solid Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. She has been racing solidly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 8.2f on the Dirt. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 77

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 PHIL'SFIRSTFACTUM 3/1

# 1 WEST SHORE DRIVE 5/2

# 9 TICKET TO FAME 7/2

PHIL'SFIRSTFACTUM looks decent to best this field. He has a good opportunity for this race as handler, Tebbutt, has strong win rate with horses going this distance. Recorded a sound Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is tough not to consider given the company run in recently. WEST SHORE DRIVE - Has been racing solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Should be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. TICKET TO FAME - This gelding looks strong in this race since Reavis has a sharp winning percentage with horses going this distance. The speed figure of 73 from his last contest looks very good in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:43pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,300 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#8 IRISH VEIL (ML=12/1)
#1 ABIDE BY ME (ML=3/1)
#2 LOOTERS CACHE (ML=5/1)
#11 TIGNE (ML=6/1)


IRISH VEIL - Looking at today's class rating, this pony is meeting an easier bunch than last out at Parx Racing. I always like to see a pony getting Lasix for the first time. Nunn adds it on this one today. That 55 fig this gelding earned in his last race tells me he's a big time player this time out. ABIDE BY ME - Ran last time out against a better group of horses at Parx Racing. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit him well. Allard is hoping to get a little more out of this gelding by adding blinkers today. LOOTERS CACHE - Possibly a peak effort for this colt today. Been getting closer to the winner with each recent start. Jock hops up on after getting to know the mount by riding last time around the track. That's always a good thing. A repeat of that recent race on Dec 16th where he garnered a rating of 55 looks good enough to prove victorious in this event. TIGNE - Earnings per race is something that I feel can be a valuable selection factor. This racer is ranked number one in this group. Trainer Chircop moves this animal to a lower class rank to face a weaker level today. Look for a sharp effort this time out. Last raced at Penn National carrying 6 pounds more. The lower weight carried right here should serve him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRINCE FELIX (ML=4/1),

PRINCE FELIX - Tough to wager on any mount to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the shot. Can't wager on this runner in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race recently.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 IRISH VEIL to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,8] Box [2,8] Box [8,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:51pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#2 DIANA'S THRILL (ML=3/1)


DIANA'S THRILL - Horses that finish 2nd in Maiden races and finish well ahead of the third horse are generally good bets next time out. This thoroughbred could be tough in today's race, especially since Bocachica rode last time out and now should be familiar with this one. Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the 2nd time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 BROKEN MARRIAGE (ML=9/5), #6 IN BELLA'S HONOR (ML=5/2), #7 LA LA BAMBA (ML=5/1),

BROKEN MARRIAGE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since Dec 10th. Not even any workouts. This filly hasn't had any positive results in short distance races in the last couple months. Disappointing speed rating in the last race at Turfway Park at 1 mile. Don't think this racer will improve too much in today's race. IN BELLA'S HONOR - Difficult to wager on at 5/2 odds after the most recent efforts. LA LA BAMBA - Just cannot bet on this questionable contender. Didn't show me anything last time around the track or on November 28th. This less than sharp equine ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's race running that number.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DIANA'S THRILL - Based on my wisdom, a front runner positioned in an inner post on a bullring of a track in a sprint gets extra points in my book. Should be in a good spot at the top of the lane.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #2 DIANA'S THRILL to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

2 with 4

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 1/11 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

6 / 2,5,6 / 1 / 1,3,4 =$9


Best Bet: SKYWAY COBRA (1st)

Spot Play: SOUTHWIND JOKER (6th)


Race 1

(8) SKYWAY COBRA four-year-old looks to have a lot of ability swooping the field from the eight-hole in his career debut. (9) SR LILLYSTAR adds second-time lasix for a new barn. (1) IMAGE OF BLITZ has yet to win in eighteen career starts; use underneath.

Race 2

(1) BRIGHT STONE freelegged pacing mare gets the best post in a weak and inconsistent field. (4) WESTERN DIAL should probably considered the horse to beat but needs a good setup. (7) OAKLEY DOAKLEY will look to make it two straight at this level; threat.

Race 3

(5) PORSCHE GIBSON looks terrible on paper but if the trotting gelding can mind his manners he can upset at a price. (9) LIBERTY BEACH has been facing much tougher. The 5-year-old mare picks up a top driver and just needs to work out a good trip from the second tier. (1) OVERWHAT gets the best post down in class.

Race 4

In a really tough race to handicap, (2) LETS BE TRUTHFUL gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but will offer a big price in a very soft field. (1) CHROME SEELSTER comes off a scratch and has had trouble winning at this level but does benefit from the best post. (5) RIDGE PARK has not won a race in a very long time. In the right scenario he can hit the ticket.

Race 5

(7) MARGARITA MAN has been overmatched in two straight. The 10-year-old trotter should find this bunch much more to his liking. (3) CABO has been knocking on the door at this level. (9) VAYA CON DIOS is very inconsistent from week to week. A good effort puts him in the mix.

Race 6

In another wide open and evenly matched race, (9) SOUTHWIND JOKER gets a monster morning line and shows some close efforts against slightly better. (6) TALBOTCREEK ARMANI has question marks coming off a scratch; command a price. (1) PRO DUECE couldn't beat a weaker bunch two back off of easy fractions; use underneath.

Race 7

(1) RED ROCKS gets the best post with a big driver change; fires early. (6) PARNELL is capable of trotting a good mile with a smooth trip. (2) FORT COMMANDER gelding hasn't won at this level in quite some time.

Race 8

(6) J C ONTHEBEACH doesn't come into the race in the best form but is facing significantly weaker. (9) OK FERRARI bumps up in class against tougher. The 7-year-old is better than what he shows on paper. (4) KWIK MAC comes into the race off a scratch but has been competitive at this level in recent efforts.

Race 9

(5) WISHIN IWAS FISHIN looks to offer the best price of the contenders. (2) SOULFUL DELIGHT nine-year-old trotter owns tons of back class and comes off an easy victory. (6) BOOYAH TJ trotter owns a big burst of speed when timed right.

Race 10

(1) TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR will look to make it three straight wins win racing at this level. (4) BOURBANS BEST pacer has not been good in his last few starts. The 10-year-old does drop down a notch but needs a turnaround. (9) GIUSEPPE MOLLUSCA has room to improve with a start over the track.

Race 11

(4) WELLTHEREYOUGO owns a slight class edge on the field. (1) SHAGUAR has lots of room to improve second start back off the layoff. The pacer adds second time lasix with the best post. (3) AIRGUITAR ROCKSTAR burned cash last out against tougher. The 9-year-old drops in class and is one of the horses to beat.

Race 12

(2) CRANK IT UP was heavily bet against better last start. The pacer picks up a good driver change and will look to play 'catch me if you can'. (3) BREAKIN THE LAW will need a complete turnaround from last week but does show some decent lines. (7) ELOCUTIONIST takes a big drop in class with a top driver.

Race 13

(2) POW CHICKA POW POW drops back down to a much easier spot. (1) JUMPIN JACK J rarely wins but does get the best post; use underneath. (9) MODEL NINETYFOUR needs a good setup and a smooth trip to hit the ticket.

Race 14

In a field full of question marks, (5) FUDGE didn't win in 2016 but finds a suspect bunch. (2) NATHAN picks up a good driver change with a nice starting post. (3) LOGAN COUNTY RALPH is very inconsistent week to week. A good effort puts him close.

Race 15

(9) ELDON MURRAY beat a decent field three back showing good closing ability. (1) CLASSIC DRAGON gets the best post and was a winner win last seen at this level. (5) TEST OF WILL shows decent efforts but needs more to hit the top spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Wednesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Charles Town (5th) Diana’s Thrill, 3-1
` (6th) Masons Dream, 5-1


Delta Downs (1st) Theboyzgalaxy, 7-2
(7th) Rooster Bullet, 4-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Spring for More, 5-1
(5th) American Cowgirl, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Hot Flash, 6-1
(8th) She’s a Gem, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Approximator, 5-1
(7th) Abide by Me, 3-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Extreme Excess, 7-2
(5th) Starship Stache, 7-2


Turf Paradise (1st) Brutus Maximus, 8-1
(7th) Mystical Prize, 5-1


Turfway Park (4th) Archiboldo, 4-1
(8th) Rob and Jon’s Girl, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday’s six-pack

Longest shots to win the 2017 World Series:

150-1— Cincinnati Reds

100-1— Brewers-Rays-Diamondbacks

80-1— A’s-Padres-Twins

75-1— Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies

60-1— Los Angles Angels

50-1— Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox