The problem for Cal this season is that they sneak up on no one. Let me blow up WINONE's theory about Pac 12 teams not winning on the road. I will skip Oregon, USC, and Stanford as he did when he made his false post.. Arizona was 3-1 in conference away games. Arizona State was 3-2. Cal was 2-3. Colorado was 0-4. Oregon State 1-3. UCLA 4-0. Utah 4-1. Washington 3-2. Wazzu 2-2. That adds up to 22-18. That is Straight Up. again I must ask this question. Do you guys ever check your stats before you post them? Do you just make things up as you go along to try and prove your points, no matter how incorrect they may be?
Early feeling is UW wins over 4 games. I know they have some tough scheduling this season, but as a rule I tend to not drop teams that went 8-5 last year to under 5 wins the next when they have a winning coach in the second year of his system and a better idea of what he has to work with. If this was Mike London it would be a different story. But Peterson is a very good fundamentals coach. I think they take a step back on defense, but I believe their offense will be a little better. At worst i think this is a push. But something tells me they'll be looking for their 5th win either at OSU or at home against WSU.
interesting....in Dykes' 2nd year with LT he went 7-0 ATS on the road .... 12-0 ATS away in 2nd years...
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Not sure where you find all these stats RT but asking you to post them early once the season starts. Anything
I can learn that might help the cause...always welcomed my friend.
Sometimes I think I look at too much material during the week...trust and bet was once my game. Did well early years but now
got to study with all the information available to gaming men on the net.
Stupid is as stupid does in gambling and there is a TON of that going around during the season. Beating the money guys is the fun challenge while winning at this hardass business.. After all these years, if it got to be NOT FUN....I'd go way and find something less expensive to have fun with.
I love CFB and wagering to beat the Vegas big boys...............................
I can learn that might help the cause...always welcomed my friend.
Sometimes I think I look at too much material during the week...trust and bet was once my game. Did well early years but now
got to study with all the information available to gaming men on the net.
Stupid is as stupid does in gambling and there is a TON of that going around during the season. Beating the money guys is the fun challenge while winning at this hardass business.. After all these years, if it got to be NOT FUN....I'd go way and find something less expensive to have fun with.
I love CFB and wagering to beat the Vegas big boys...............................
One thing about the early lines and wagering; you don't always have to have an opinion on the side!
Clearly the Washington 4 wins was going to be bet up by the public. The "correct" play is to max out on the overs, and then either go the other way for free $$$ or let the play stand if you like the value. The trick is feeling confident in spotting lines that will get heavily bet (up or down) and being ahead of the move.
As for Cal, year two of a decent DC, and I agree, less than 5 wins would be regressing. I know the HC has always been associated with terrible defenses, but this team does appear better than what they were in '14. For me, another case of early line value.
Well how about this: Talking college football must mean it's now July. Three post football trips down (South America, Lake Michigan, Tahoe) and just one left for Ms. Outhouse and I (France). Two trips to Vegas down, and two more to follow. Here we go again!
Clearly the Washington 4 wins was going to be bet up by the public. The "correct" play is to max out on the overs, and then either go the other way for free $$$ or let the play stand if you like the value. The trick is feeling confident in spotting lines that will get heavily bet (up or down) and being ahead of the move.
As for Cal, year two of a decent DC, and I agree, less than 5 wins would be regressing. I know the HC has always been associated with terrible defenses, but this team does appear better than what they were in '14. For me, another case of early line value.
Well how about this: Talking college football must mean it's now July. Three post football trips down (South America, Lake Michigan, Tahoe) and just one left for Ms. Outhouse and I (France). Two trips to Vegas down, and two more to follow. Here we go again!
I can see UDub with wins at home against Sacramento State, Utah State, Cal, and Washington State. Add on a win at Oregon State (who may be the worst Pac 12 North team) and you get 5 wins. Having said that, UDub can just as easily lose at home to Utah State and to Cal, and go under 4 wins. The defense has to reload on the line and in the secondary. Another example of the best wager being no wager at all.
It's time for Chris Petersen to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
I don't know exactly how he goes about it or where he keeps his bag of tricks, but this situation calls for something I've seen him do before which is to create a new identity and a new team with the players he has presently available to him. Just a word of advice, he and his staff of AC's are one hell of a group for being able to spot a gem in the rough and for coaching up young players with raw talent. I'd even go as far as to say that the success he has enjoyed in this regard is uncanny. Boise's record speaks for itself, and for the most part, they were rebuilt, not reloaded after running the table or after a one-loss season the previous year. New playmakers seem to come out of nowhere.
So realistically, you would weigh UDub's losses in quality starters against Petersen's track record for creating a successful team with a new identity. You should end up with something more than what the Seattle sportswriters and CFB pundits have been saying about the Huskies -- that they are 4-win team in 2015. (Granted their schedule is from hell.)
You know how some things that happen just stick in your head? Well I've got something that's been sticking in mine for years. This... Coming off of a tragic 0-12 year under Ty Willingham, UW opened up their 2009 season at home vs. LSU with Steve Sarkisian's debut as their new HC. The Huskies lost that game by a score of 31-23, a solid loss -- no 2 ways about it. But what I remember so well was a mob of Husky fans hanging around after the game in a very festive mood, even cheering the players and coaching staff as they walked off the field after the game. I'd never seen anything like that in all my years watching the sport. The Washington fans were deliriously happy after losing their opener. Why? As it turned out over the winter, there was much speculation and discussion about Sarkisian who was viewed as the Huskies' savior in the press, on talk shows and by the Husky faithful. There were a lot of people in Seattle who felt that after Willingham's exit accentuated by an 0-12 season in 2008, no one had seen anything resembling real college football for years in Seattle. And they were right. The fans were cheering the team after their loss because they played well. Think about it. Is that not a sad statement about where college football had digressed in Washington? Rock bottom.
Ultimately, Sark led them about nowhere with 2 narrow wins over USC (sanctions,) a home squeaker over Stanford (in 5 years one of 2 Sarkisian's wins over a ranked team) and one win in 3 tries over Nebraska (the other win vs. a ranked team) to serve as marquee wins dotting a lackluster career as UW's HC. I'd put that record about a notch below respectable.
So where are the biggest negatives Petersen will contend with this year? First off many would say that personnel losses rank high... not me. Granted that there is nothing like experience to weather a team's roster and toughen it up vs all sorts of competition, however I'd be willing to bet that Chris Petersen will show us at least a pair of pocket kings in the hole that few if any have heard of. He always has. Next would be to ask the question, is Petersen happy with what Sarkisian left in the cupboard when he left? I'd say not in principle. He will need another 2 years to man up his roster with what he deems adequate, but he doesn't start out with nothing. He never has. The biggest consideration of them all is UW's tough schedule this year. But if they can hold service vs Arizona (home team dominated series) Cal or Utah (win 1 out of those 3 home games) they should win 5 games -- better than that if they play well at home, however winning 2 of those 3 may be a stretch..
I don't know exactly how he goes about it or where he keeps his bag of tricks, but this situation calls for something I've seen him do before which is to create a new identity and a new team with the players he has presently available to him. Just a word of advice, he and his staff of AC's are one hell of a group for being able to spot a gem in the rough and for coaching up young players with raw talent. I'd even go as far as to say that the success he has enjoyed in this regard is uncanny. Boise's record speaks for itself, and for the most part, they were rebuilt, not reloaded after running the table or after a one-loss season the previous year. New playmakers seem to come out of nowhere.
So realistically, you would weigh UDub's losses in quality starters against Petersen's track record for creating a successful team with a new identity. You should end up with something more than what the Seattle sportswriters and CFB pundits have been saying about the Huskies -- that they are 4-win team in 2015. (Granted their schedule is from hell.)
You know how some things that happen just stick in your head? Well I've got something that's been sticking in mine for years. This... Coming off of a tragic 0-12 year under Ty Willingham, UW opened up their 2009 season at home vs. LSU with Steve Sarkisian's debut as their new HC. The Huskies lost that game by a score of 31-23, a solid loss -- no 2 ways about it. But what I remember so well was a mob of Husky fans hanging around after the game in a very festive mood, even cheering the players and coaching staff as they walked off the field after the game. I'd never seen anything like that in all my years watching the sport. The Washington fans were deliriously happy after losing their opener. Why? As it turned out over the winter, there was much speculation and discussion about Sarkisian who was viewed as the Huskies' savior in the press, on talk shows and by the Husky faithful. There were a lot of people in Seattle who felt that after Willingham's exit accentuated by an 0-12 season in 2008, no one had seen anything resembling real college football for years in Seattle. And they were right. The fans were cheering the team after their loss because they played well. Think about it. Is that not a sad statement about where college football had digressed in Washington? Rock bottom.
Ultimately, Sark led them about nowhere with 2 narrow wins over USC (sanctions,) a home squeaker over Stanford (in 5 years one of 2 Sarkisian's wins over a ranked team) and one win in 3 tries over Nebraska (the other win vs. a ranked team) to serve as marquee wins dotting a lackluster career as UW's HC. I'd put that record about a notch below respectable.
So where are the biggest negatives Petersen will contend with this year? First off many would say that personnel losses rank high... not me. Granted that there is nothing like experience to weather a team's roster and toughen it up vs all sorts of competition, however I'd be willing to bet that Chris Petersen will show us at least a pair of pocket kings in the hole that few if any have heard of. He always has. Next would be to ask the question, is Petersen happy with what Sarkisian left in the cupboard when he left? I'd say not in principle. He will need another 2 years to man up his roster with what he deems adequate, but he doesn't start out with nothing. He never has. The biggest consideration of them all is UW's tough schedule this year. But if they can hold service vs Arizona (home team dominated series) Cal or Utah (win 1 out of those 3 home games) they should win 5 games -- better than that if they play well at home, however winning 2 of those 3 may be a stretch..
Where to start... no play on UW, they will upset somebody and get upset for 4 wins.
CAL- this is my wheelhouse. I'm surprised to see all the Cal love. Goff is maybe the best Qb in the country and future nfl stud but as noted the Ol and defense is not good. The past two years had cluster injuries on the lb's and db's but even without that the units are subpar. D Drew looks like he might get back onto the team (kicked off) and he should be a nice boost starting at safety. I agree that Cal is good enough to beat anybody the way Goff and co. can air it out but maybe not the big tough trench teams like stanford, utah and usc. It is the consistency and details that are lacking. Depth, special teams, ol and db's especially. I went to the spring game and nobody could make a fg. I thought they were gonna start pulling us out of the stands for a tryout. The Wr depth is scary good. If they can keep the chains moving those guys will light it up.
Admittingly I haven't done my cfb homework yet, that starts tomorrow with my Vacation to Lake Tahoe so I don't have a cemented opinion yet. What I can tell you is that they outplayed Ari last year and should have won and the same goes for the Ucla game where the pac12 replay officials blew it (imagine that!). The byu game could've gone either way also. That would've been an amazing turnaround. This year the Sdst game scares me a bit but Tex better be scared come sept 19th!
Conan- it was Qb Kevin Riley that had the bonehead play that cost Cal a #1 national ranking and ended the programs ascension. He was in for Nate Longshore who was plagued by breaks and sprains in both ankles and was never able to be the same. Most don't realize how good Longshore was before his lower leg injuries and how bad he was after.
CAL- this is my wheelhouse. I'm surprised to see all the Cal love. Goff is maybe the best Qb in the country and future nfl stud but as noted the Ol and defense is not good. The past two years had cluster injuries on the lb's and db's but even without that the units are subpar. D Drew looks like he might get back onto the team (kicked off) and he should be a nice boost starting at safety. I agree that Cal is good enough to beat anybody the way Goff and co. can air it out but maybe not the big tough trench teams like stanford, utah and usc. It is the consistency and details that are lacking. Depth, special teams, ol and db's especially. I went to the spring game and nobody could make a fg. I thought they were gonna start pulling us out of the stands for a tryout. The Wr depth is scary good. If they can keep the chains moving those guys will light it up.
Admittingly I haven't done my cfb homework yet, that starts tomorrow with my Vacation to Lake Tahoe so I don't have a cemented opinion yet. What I can tell you is that they outplayed Ari last year and should have won and the same goes for the Ucla game where the pac12 replay officials blew it (imagine that!). The byu game could've gone either way also. That would've been an amazing turnaround. This year the Sdst game scares me a bit but Tex better be scared come sept 19th!
Conan- it was Qb Kevin Riley that had the bonehead play that cost Cal a #1 national ranking and ended the programs ascension. He was in for Nate Longshore who was plagued by breaks and sprains in both ankles and was never able to be the same. Most don't realize how good Longshore was before his lower leg injuries and how bad he was after.
UW under 4.5 wins might not have been a bad bet. Of course it's way too early in the season but looking at their schedule I don't see how they win 4 games starting a true freshman QB. As I've stated, he's got UW regressing. They'll be a lower Mountain West or high Big West calibur team by seasons end. Hopefully Sac St does not come to play or they may not win a game. Touting Browning as the next Kellen Moore, I guess that works if you are playing in the WAC but I am not sure how that translates long term to the PAC12. But hey, that's a Coach Pete kinda guy!!
