Was Denver -8.5 a Bad Bet?

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Where to begin?

Decker getting tripped by turf monster with a clear path to the end zone
The lucky pick in the end zone that hit Decker in the pads and bounced into arms of a defender
The questionable fumble when Thomas appeared to be down
Welker's drop on an easy pass the the 1 yard line
Holiday KO return for a TD that was called back on a penalty
The 4th and 5 conversion for 50 yard bomb
Chris Harris getting injured
SD recovering the onside kick
etc, etc, etc
Good point except for the KO return. KO returns for TD's are always called back when you need them.
 

God didn't create man. Man created god.
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I had SD and felt VERY fortunate.
 

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This

=bad beat

correct side was Denver and if people cannot see that they are delusional.


Correct side was the winning side. Don't understand the thought process of a losing ticket being the correct side. I had Seattle on Saturday and felt that I capped the game to a T, but the Seattle D decided to let the Saints move the ball the last 48 seconds of the game......and this is suppose to be a legit D.......so I lost my -8.5 bet and could really care less what the correct side was because wagers are graded on wins and loses.....and I lost. Who cares about what team was the right side if it doesn't win you money.
 

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Correct side was the winning side. Don't understand the thought process of a losing ticket being the correct side. I had Seattle on Saturday and felt that I capped the game to a T, but the Seattle D decided to let the Saints move the ball the last 48 seconds of the game......and this is suppose to be a legit D.......so I lost my -8.5 bet and could really care less what the correct side was because wagers are graded on wins and loses.....and I lost. Who cares about what team was the right side if it doesn't win you money.



Respectful disagree. I look at sports betting in a similar light as poker.


The correct play doesn't always result in a favorable outcome. When playing poker if all the money goes in preflop and you have AA vs KK, and your AA loses, the play was still correct even though you lost. The theory proves out because if you put your money in majority of times with +50% chance to win (ignoring rake/juice), in the long haul you'll be a winner. I believe a similar theory is in place in sportsbetting.


In sports, if you see a line of -7.5(+100) and you know that it's a winner +50% of the time, you would bet it. While you may not win, it's still the correct side.


People struggle with the theory because the "correct side" cannot be mathematically proven, Also, with many sporting events a reasonable argument can be made for either side being the "correct side" due the strong accuracy of line setters.


I suggest that you watch events with a more objective view, rather than just a winning ticket and losing ticket.


GL

 

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In sports, if you see a line of -7.5(+100) and you know that it's a winner +50% of the time, you would bet it. While you may not win, it's still the correct side.


People struggle with the theory because the "correct side" cannot be mathematically proven, Also, with many sporting events a reasonable argument can be made for either side being the "correct side" due the strong accuracy of line setters.


Those two parts of your post are contradictory. If something can not be mathematically proven, and the "correct side" can not, then you don't know something is going to be a winner 50% of the time. Additionally, I don't bet anything thinking it is a winner 50% of the time because that wouldn't be profitable.

That is why it is much more sound to say the correct side is the winning side.

When I hear people say "It was the correct side" it is usually just to make themselves feel better after a loss.
 

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Respectful disagree. I look at sports betting in a similar light as poker.


The correct play doesn't always result in a favorable outcome. When playing poker if all the money goes in preflop and you have AA vs KK, and your AA loses, the play was still correct even though you lost. The theory proves out because if you put your money in majority of times with +50% chance to win (ignoring rake/juice), in the long haul you'll be a winner. I believe a similar theory is in place in sportsbetting.


In sports, if you see a line of -7.5(+100) and you know that it's a winner +50% of the time, you would bet it. While you may not win, it's still the correct side.


People struggle with the theory because the "correct side" cannot be mathematically proven, Also, with many sporting events a reasonable argument can be made for either side being the "correct side" due the strong accuracy of line setters.


I suggest that you watch events with a more objective view, rather than just a winning ticket and losing ticket.


GL
My original point, well said!
 

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Respectful disagree. I look at sports betting in a similar light as poker.


The correct play doesn't always result in a favorable outcome. When playing poker if all the money goes in preflop and you have AA vs KK, and your AA loses, the play was still correct even though you lost. The theory proves out because if you put your money in majority of times with +50% chance to win (ignoring rake/juice), in the long haul you'll be a winner. I believe a similar theory is in place in sportsbetting.


In sports, if you see a line of -7.5(+100) and you know that it's a winner +50% of the time, you would bet it. While you may not win, it's still the correct side.


People struggle with the theory because the "correct side" cannot be mathematically proven, Also, with many sporting events a reasonable argument can be made for either side being the "correct side" due the strong accuracy of line setters.


I suggest that you watch events with a more objective view, rather than just a winning ticket and losing ticket.


GL


i guess it's all in the eye of the beholder. I can't argue with the poker because I am not educated on it because I rarely play. This game in question when I was capping gave the best odds of playing SD by studying past results IMO. When betting ats, it's really a 50% shot that you are going to win. Finding the little pieces that go along can improve your odds, but it still has a 50-50 shot of winning at the end of the day. Why SD had such a bland game plan the 1H is impossible to cap unless your on the inside of the game planning.

At the end of the day, we all are here to win money.......regardless how we all get there, it's all about winning. I hate bad beats, but my local could care less, he still counts it as a loss. That was the point I was referring to. A team comes out hot, and lets off the pedal is part of it and it sucks....but part of the game.

difference of opinion, but same to you on your future wagers.......BOL buddy.
 

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if SD could have figured out that denver was taking the run away for 3 qtrs and started throwing earlier, they probably win the game. terrible coaching and rivers not getting out of running plays with 9 guys in the box for denver.
 

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