renz said:
Sorry bro...had to edit my post...was a TYPO.
I am wondering something though....Of course CHI would be a "pull" play or whatever. They just whooped MIA last night and then opened as Dogs, the public would start playing Bulls and this would in turn shift the line to where it is now...I am still confused as well. Still watching stuff...sorry for the confusion.
renz said:
YES. YOU ARE CORRECT. MUST BE A DOG.
Quote:
(2ND SYSTEM).....again were only dealing with dogs here. When you see a dog with a greater ML % than the spread %, it's telling you that there is smart money playing them. But there must be a ceiling of 35-37% on the spread %. Never more. The only play in the NFL today was the Ravens. Going 31% spread, and 37% ML. The other play was Seattle going 29/59, but again....west vs. east killed it. But not if you look for that particular filter......Anyway, look for yourself in NCAAF yesterday(10/28/06).....I call them "Hidden Gems", and they went 8-3 yesterday!!! Here are all the winners....Ball st, E.Michigan, Mississippi, Georgia, E.Carolina, N.Texas, Fla. Atlantic, Middle Tenn st. The only losers were S.Carolina, C.Florida, and UL Monroe. But no way I put money on Monroe!
tbonestk said:
Chicago qualifies as a pull.
Orlando IS NOT a hidden gem.
Keep in mind, that HIDDEN GEMS ATS% must be NO HIGHER THAN 37%. With that said, in accordance, the ML% must be NO HIGHER THAN 2-3%.
So, yes, the ML% is HIGHER than the ATS% in the Chi/Orlando game, BUT, it's TWENTY ONE percent off.
You have to look at the example in yesterday's game, with the Suns/Lakers.
Close to game time, and the Lakers were 32 ATS% (See how it's still under the 37% cap)
IN ADDITION, the ML% on the Lakers was 35% (See how it's only 3% higher. Remember what wsg said, the ML% can only be 2-3% higher)
This is why it's called 'hidden gems'
Not everyday will there be 'hidden gems.'
So guys, please don't automatically assign any game with a higher ML% than the ATS%, as a 'hidden gem'. Don't play them blindly.
Hope this helps.
I'm still looking around, and will post back if I see anything. :modemman:
ok i think now everyone is on the same page!!!!!
The big question now is HOW many PEOPLE ARE actually going to use these 20 MIN DELAYED percentages. DO you think NBA and NCAAF delays are different from one another? For football can we get bye with using the 20 mins delayed %'s ? or do we get fucked by the last minute *WISE guys* or huge bettors that will totally fuck up the system?
WHOS PLAYING tonight? And which sport?
The big question now is HOW many PEOPLE ARE actually going to use these 20 MIN DELAYED percentages. DO you think NBA and NCAAF delays are different from one another? For football can we get bye with using the 20 mins delayed %'s ? or do we get fucked by the last minute *WISE guys* or huge bettors that will totally fuck up the system?
WHOS PLAYING tonight? And which sport?
uppy: 
ajmaverick said:
that's what I was saying...
everyone needs to relax. the key to winning, in general, is making bets that is hard for the public to pull the trigger on....
why the fuck would joe public bet Orlando? Chicago handed the Heat's asses to them on a silver platter last night. the linesmakers adjusted, so I dont think this would be a line 'pull'.
Ok, I'm on SI right now, and the only classifiable line pull, would be the Chicago Bulls.
That's the only game where it was a dog (Orlando opened -1 or whatever) where the majority ATS% is on. 76% is on Chicago, who was once the dog, and is now the favorite, -2.
I guess this would classify as a line pull.
The rest of the games, the ATS% is higher on all favorites.
As for hidden gems, we have a possibility with the Bobcats.
As I type this, they are 35% ATS, and 32% on the ML.
Perhaps by game time, this will be a hidden gem.
All I can say is, there is ONE HIDDEN GEM THAT IS FOR SURE TONIGHT.
That would be Fresno St.
ATS% = 30% (Below the 37% ceiling)
ML% = 34% (At least 2-3% higher)
AND THE LINE HAS DROPPED.
So, according to this system, Fresno St. is a definite play.
For the NBA, I guess we have to wait a little more
That's the only game where it was a dog (Orlando opened -1 or whatever) where the majority ATS% is on. 76% is on Chicago, who was once the dog, and is now the favorite, -2.
I guess this would classify as a line pull.
The rest of the games, the ATS% is higher on all favorites.
As for hidden gems, we have a possibility with the Bobcats.
As I type this, they are 35% ATS, and 32% on the ML.
Perhaps by game time, this will be a hidden gem.
All I can say is, there is ONE HIDDEN GEM THAT IS FOR SURE TONIGHT.
That would be Fresno St.
ATS% = 30% (Below the 37% ceiling)
ML% = 34% (At least 2-3% higher)
AND THE LINE HAS DROPPED.
So, according to this system, Fresno St. is a definite play.
For the NBA, I guess we have to wait a little more
