Anybody in this thread who played fresno st tonight based on si's numbers should take a long hard look at giving up gambling and anybody who would believe that the 34 percent on fresno moneyline was sharp bettors, you should quit gambling tonight. Sharp bettors dont waste their money on bets that might win 1 out of maybe 25 times and thats exactly where a 23 point underdog falls.
Let me try to give a little insight. Am sure alot of you know how casinos make their money at blackjack, dice, slots etc etc etc. They have the odds in their favor in all those games and over time they know that they will always come out ahead because of the house advantage. They have the bankrolls behind them to slowly take the bettors cash.
Now lets move on, sharp sports bettors arent gamblers, they are investors and what they do is find spots where they have the advantage on the house and know that if they make the same bet usually6 out of 10 times they will come out on the right side. They dont bother wasting their time and money trying to catch an 1800-1 underdog, sorry just aint gonna happen. If anything that 34 percent on the fresno moneyline should have told you that it was stupid money, not sharp money.
Okay now am gonna clue you all into a little trick the sportsbooks use on all of us {i shouldnt tell you all because its really top secret and might make the play stop winning, lollllllll}
In the old days people used to make a killing jumpin on the line moves, but the books caught onto the fact that there was tons and tons of linewatchers, who would jump on all those sharp guys plays, so they had to come up with a way to not get killed by the sharps and all the line watchers.
So they devised what is called false moves, these are moves that go in the wrong direction of what is actually being bet by the sharps and the reason is they know the line watchers are like sheep and will just pounce on the play, and by doing that they help to balance the action taken in by the sharp bettors.
Tonights game was a perfect example of it, the books were probably taking all kinds of action on boise st, but they cant raise the number because then all the line watchers are going to pounce on boise st and then the books stand to get killed, so what they do is throw out the good ole false move, where it looks like the sharps are betting fresno and then they keep lowering it, like its getting hit even more, this starts a feeding frenzy all over, where bettors are scrambling to get down on fresno cause they want to be part of the sharp guys play, when all the time the sharps were probably on boise st.
Last piece of info, 75-85 percent of all games the spread doesnt come into play, so that in itself should tell you that the sharps dont risk their money playing on 23 point underdogs, because they see and know the stats that if a team is gonna win, the spread aint gonna matter. So do you really think they will put their money on some dog with fleas actually hoping that the game just stays within in the point spread range? Hell no, thats a wasted bet.
The pro games this weekend went 14 for 14, where the spread didnt matter one bit. Pick the winner of the game and you will win money, but picking the winner of the game is still the hard part.
Hopefully this post can help some of you to become better gamblers, because i have been doing this for a long time and each day am always learning something new, and am not to proud to be taught something new by anybody.
Remember we are all on the same side, its the books money we want.
good luck and amy all your bets be winning ones.