Stats for my picks today.
NY is 7-14 ATS vs Western Conf. teams.
NY last 6 games at home, they have not won by more then seven. Hopefully get Utah -7.5(not confirmed). I think Utah on the money line would be a good bet, but I will take the points.
Will Utah lose their 4th in a row ATS? We will soon find out.
As for Sac @ Chi ( I'm on Sac -6.5)
Chi is 0-7 ATS of a div. game vs. a non-conference apponent.
Sac got smoked by Minny( like I hoped) and are now tied for first overall).
The frustration will be taken out on Chicago). I'm hoping for a minimum 15 pt. victory.
I will finalize my picks later.
good night to all
LEAFS 2-1 VICTORY TONIGHT. IT WAS UGLY LATE, BUT A WIN IS A WIN!
NY is 7-14 ATS vs Western Conf. teams.
NY last 6 games at home, they have not won by more then seven. Hopefully get Utah -7.5(not confirmed). I think Utah on the money line would be a good bet, but I will take the points.
Will Utah lose their 4th in a row ATS? We will soon find out.
As for Sac @ Chi ( I'm on Sac -6.5)
Chi is 0-7 ATS of a div. game vs. a non-conference apponent.
Sac got smoked by Minny( like I hoped) and are now tied for first overall).
The frustration will be taken out on Chicago). I'm hoping for a minimum 15 pt. victory.
I will finalize my picks later.
good night to all
LEAFS 2-1 VICTORY TONIGHT. IT WAS UGLY LATE, BUT A WIN IS A WIN!
BIGTIME, I like the pacer's tonight.
8-1 ats away off DD ats loss.
18-9 ats away.
I would bet an amount that if they don't cover, you are comfortable on doubling down on them against Utah. If they loss tonight that will be 2 losses in a row ATS. They have only lost 3 in a row once.
I haven't decided whether I will take the Pacers bacause I have Utah tonight, and if Utah doesn't cover I will be in a tough position for the next game.
I may put a non-system wager on the pacers tonight.
I don't usually play parlays, but I have a free $50 parlay with my offshore.
possibly 2 team parlay
Utah and Indiana.
what do you guys think?
8-1 ats away off DD ats loss.
18-9 ats away.
I would bet an amount that if they don't cover, you are comfortable on doubling down on them against Utah. If they loss tonight that will be 2 losses in a row ATS. They have only lost 3 in a row once.
I haven't decided whether I will take the Pacers bacause I have Utah tonight, and if Utah doesn't cover I will be in a tough position for the next game.
I may put a non-system wager on the pacers tonight.
I don't usually play parlays, but I have a free $50 parlay with my offshore.
possibly 2 team parlay
Utah and Indiana.
what do you guys think?
OK guys, so far so good.
Easy win with Utah (didn't have the guts to play the money line). Squeeked out the win with Sac.
SYSTEM SUMMARYY:
3 SYSTEM PLAYS WON, 1 PENDING(AGAINST NEW ORL.)
ON MIAMI..............WON $45
AGAINST CHICAGO.......WON $5
ON UTAH ..............WON $41
BALANCE + $91.00
TONIGHT:
against NEW ORLEANS VS NJ.
TAKING NJ -4.5 BET 60 TO WIN 54
NO has won 3 in a row ATS. They have never won 4 in a row.
SYSTEM PLAYS starting tonight:
BOSTON +5.5 vs Portland
Portland has never one 4 in a row ATS. Tonight would be #4.
taking BOSTON +5.5 BET 50 TO WIN 45
DALLAS(-5.5) VS Houston
Houston has 2 wins in a row ATS, only one 4 in a row once ATS. Will start the system on a solid home team.
DALLAS BET 30 TO WIN 27
OTHER NON-SYSTEM BETS:
MEMPHIS -4(30 to win 27) vs. Chicago
Chicago only has 2 wins vs. Eastern Conference.
Easy win with Utah (didn't have the guts to play the money line). Squeeked out the win with Sac.
SYSTEM SUMMARYY:
3 SYSTEM PLAYS WON, 1 PENDING(AGAINST NEW ORL.)
ON MIAMI..............WON $45
AGAINST CHICAGO.......WON $5
ON UTAH ..............WON $41
BALANCE + $91.00
TONIGHT:
against NEW ORLEANS VS NJ.
TAKING NJ -4.5 BET 60 TO WIN 54
NO has won 3 in a row ATS. They have never won 4 in a row.
SYSTEM PLAYS starting tonight:
BOSTON +5.5 vs Portland
Portland has never one 4 in a row ATS. Tonight would be #4.
taking BOSTON +5.5 BET 50 TO WIN 45
DALLAS(-5.5) VS Houston
Houston has 2 wins in a row ATS, only one 4 in a row once ATS. Will start the system on a solid home team.
DALLAS BET 30 TO WIN 27
OTHER NON-SYSTEM BETS:
MEMPHIS -4(30 to win 27) vs. Chicago
Chicago only has 2 wins vs. Eastern Conference.
NJ covers handily for + $54. Difference in betting against NEW ORLEANS, +$24.
DALLAS covers + $27
SYSTEM BALANCE = $142.00
System Pending: against PORTLAND. They beat BOSTON tonight for their forth in a row. Will bet on Miami on the 23rd for $100( betting against Portland).
TATE, Portland has 3+ games away coming up. I think this would be a solid play for your system.
Also caught my non-system pick on MEMPHIS.
goodbye for now.
DALLAS covers + $27
SYSTEM BALANCE = $142.00
System Pending: against PORTLAND. They beat BOSTON tonight for their forth in a row. Will bet on Miami on the 23rd for $100( betting against Portland).
TATE, Portland has 3+ games away coming up. I think this would be a solid play for your system.
Also caught my non-system pick on MEMPHIS.
goodbye for now.
Hi. Your system as such is a basic martigale system. The one time it blows up wipes all the other winners. I suspect it would work in baseball also but by the time you have your stats isnt half the season gone? I tried martingale once at blackjack at a $2.00 table no less so it went 2-3-6-12-24-48-96 cant lose 8 in arow so bet 8 is 192 total 385 to win 1. or do you stop after 4 losses in a row?
Hi. I do something similar in baseball. I identify 6 or 8 teams that i percieve will be losers and when they have lost one game bet against them to keep losing. If I have to lay over 2.3 to 1 I try and parlay them with another loser to cut the numbers. down. I need about 57% to make money and I usually come in around 61%. oh if the 2 dogs are playing each other no bet as i do not think they can win 3 in a arow. System usually works best whentheseguys go on theroad in say June through August and they are giving up.
bobk, my system has more to it than a basic matringale. Especially if you compare it to a blackjack table. In blackjack the dealer has the advantage because of the bust factor. In betting with lines it is 50%.
Secondly, I am glad I started this in the second half of the season because it gives me actual patterns of teams, rather then "what I perceive will be losers."
Part of my system is handicapping when the right time is to start. A good example is, I bet against Portland the other night because that was Portlands fourth win in a row. I bet on Boston because Portland had never won ATS 4 in a row this season. If I would have picked Portland in the Beginning of their win streak then I would be down:
-50
-100
-200
-400
That means I would have to bet 800 on Miami (against Portland).
But, this is not the scinerio. I felt that Boston could cover against Portland, and knew that if they didn't, then Portland was going on a 3 game road trip. Since they now have covered 4 in a row, which I gaurantee you Vegas knows about. I also gaurantee you the majority of other bettors are liking the way Portland looks right now. Who wouldn't? They've won 3 out of their last 4 on the road. These points helps make a softer line.
Fact is:
Portland is on a winning streak of 4 and counting, for the first time this year.
Now I don't base my decision on this alone.
If I don't like the way Miami matches up with Portland, then I may not double down, or I may just make it a regular bet. BUT, I like this match-up, especially starting on the road.
MIAMI 18-9 ATS @ home, PORTLAND 12-15 ATS away.
MIAMI 13-10, off 1 day rest, PORTLAND 15-19
LAST 5, MIAMI avg scoring 102.6, PORTLAND 96.8
The stat I don't like is Portland only has 7 loses against the EAST.
I hope you understand, I can't tell you how many games I would double down on in a row. I can tell you that I may find the odd game where I may even go larger then double given the proper situation.
Truthfully, I am worried about betting against Portland, especially if they cover against Miami. Portland needs every game to make the play-offs. After Miami, they play a terrible Orlando team, who they could easily beat by 20. Then Houston, who now have lost 2 in a row.
I think you have to bet on Miami, or take the initial loss (my bet on Boston) and run.
I'M ON MIAMI -3 BET 100 TO WIN 90
Secondly, I am glad I started this in the second half of the season because it gives me actual patterns of teams, rather then "what I perceive will be losers."
Part of my system is handicapping when the right time is to start. A good example is, I bet against Portland the other night because that was Portlands fourth win in a row. I bet on Boston because Portland had never won ATS 4 in a row this season. If I would have picked Portland in the Beginning of their win streak then I would be down:
-50
-100
-200
-400
That means I would have to bet 800 on Miami (against Portland).
But, this is not the scinerio. I felt that Boston could cover against Portland, and knew that if they didn't, then Portland was going on a 3 game road trip. Since they now have covered 4 in a row, which I gaurantee you Vegas knows about. I also gaurantee you the majority of other bettors are liking the way Portland looks right now. Who wouldn't? They've won 3 out of their last 4 on the road. These points helps make a softer line.
Fact is:
Portland is on a winning streak of 4 and counting, for the first time this year.
Now I don't base my decision on this alone.
If I don't like the way Miami matches up with Portland, then I may not double down, or I may just make it a regular bet. BUT, I like this match-up, especially starting on the road.
MIAMI 18-9 ATS @ home, PORTLAND 12-15 ATS away.
MIAMI 13-10, off 1 day rest, PORTLAND 15-19
LAST 5, MIAMI avg scoring 102.6, PORTLAND 96.8
The stat I don't like is Portland only has 7 loses against the EAST.
I hope you understand, I can't tell you how many games I would double down on in a row. I can tell you that I may find the odd game where I may even go larger then double given the proper situation.
Truthfully, I am worried about betting against Portland, especially if they cover against Miami. Portland needs every game to make the play-offs. After Miami, they play a terrible Orlando team, who they could easily beat by 20. Then Houston, who now have lost 2 in a row.
I think you have to bet on Miami, or take the initial loss (my bet on Boston) and run.
I'M ON MIAMI -3 BET 100 TO WIN 90
SYSTEM BET STARTING TONIGHT.
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 BET 50 TO WIN 45.
Great spot here. Cleveland exhuasted after tremendous effort against NY.
NO gets smoked by 13 against NJ.
CLEV is something like 7-18 ATS vs. non-div dogs. 2-9 ATS vs opponents off a dd loss.
NO lost to the hotest team in the NBA. Now they take it out on an over-rated Clev. team. I see a DD win for NO.
If NO loses, they meet LAC, who they lost to by 29 POINTS!
A definit double-up+ bet.
only time will tell,
good luck.
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 BET 50 TO WIN 45.
Great spot here. Cleveland exhuasted after tremendous effort against NY.
NO gets smoked by 13 against NJ.
CLEV is something like 7-18 ATS vs. non-div dogs. 2-9 ATS vs opponents off a dd loss.
NO lost to the hotest team in the NBA. Now they take it out on an over-rated Clev. team. I see a DD win for NO.
If NO loses, they meet LAC, who they lost to by 29 POINTS!
A definit double-up+ bet.
only time will tell,
good luck.
CRUNCH TIME. FIRST BIG TEST OF MY SYSTEM PLAYS.
PORTLAND COMES FROM BEHIND AND WINS SU AND ATS.
HAVE TO GO AGAINST THEM ONE MORE TIME VS ORLANDO.
KEEPING WITH THE SYSTEM,
ORLANDO +1.5 BET 200 TO WIN 181.
FREE PARLAY:
UTAH -3, AND U179.5 BET 50 TO WIN 130.
THIS IS A NON-SYSTEM PLAY.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
PORTLAND COMES FROM BEHIND AND WINS SU AND ATS.
HAVE TO GO AGAINST THEM ONE MORE TIME VS ORLANDO.
KEEPING WITH THE SYSTEM,
ORLANDO +1.5 BET 200 TO WIN 181.
FREE PARLAY:
UTAH -3, AND U179.5 BET 50 TO WIN 130.
THIS IS A NON-SYSTEM PLAY.
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE
well, like I thought. bad bet on Orlando against Portland. Portland is one of those teams that are able to make a run for the post season. I'm taking them as a system loss.
Now my balance is $-58.00.
going with NEW ORLEANS vs the Clippers tonight.
NEW ORLEANS -8.5, bet a little extra because I like the match-up.
BET $114 to win $104
Will be researching the rest of the games before picking elseware.
good luck
Now my balance is $-58.00.
going with NEW ORLEANS vs the Clippers tonight.
NEW ORLEANS -8.5, bet a little extra because I like the match-up.
BET $114 to win $104
Will be researching the rest of the games before picking elseware.
good luck
