from the 50 seconds mark down to the 17 second mark SJU MISSED 6of7 from the line....seriously MISSED....and it still went over....when i saw that ball go out of bounds with 19 seconds left i almost shit my pants...that was the game right there b/c the guy went back to the line and hit 2of2 with 16seconds to go....
Also posted about this in my weekly picks thread found here:
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=873343
Okay, this is probably a little bit late but I needed time to put all my thoughts together.
In case you have not heard, the UNC Michigan State game is being played on a boat tomorrow. With experience on both sides of the counter in the past decade, this match-up is very intriguing to me.
I will go through a couple factors here that make this game different and see what happens when the line is officially released.
First off, if this was a normal neutral court game, this total would be 148-152.
I am going to look at the flight deck court first.
The Court:
This game is being played on the flight deck of the USS Carl Vinson which is located in San Diego. There are seats on four sides of the floor. Each corner of the court is wide open, and obviously so is the roof. In order to block wind, the entire court is wrapped with 30 feet high vinyl.
Don’t think just because the vinyl is there that all the elements of playing a game outside are eliminated.
When it comes to setting lines for baseball, a very important factor I considered was humidity. The humidity is often looked over by bettors, but when extremes on either side of the norm, effects are felt. How much so they will be felt in this game is hard to say. The average humidity in a gym is between 15-25%. San Diego forecasts are calling for humidity in the 60-70% range. For you non weather experts, this means that the air is going to be heavier on the ship. Technically it will be harder to shoot as you will have to shoot the ball further than normal to compensate for the humidity. How much of a difference it will make is to be determined and almost impossible to predict, but something to think about.
The boat is going to be parked with the court facing north and south, meaning that neither team will be shooting into the sun. It has been made clear the sun will not be a factor in the game. I am not worrying about this factor what so ever.
One factor I am considering is the ball/floor material.
One thing I learned in my time setting lines for football is the temperature, probably not for the reasons you’re thinking. If you were a kid growing up in the colder states, you will know a ball in colder temperatures is never fully inflated. I can’t recall how many times as a kid I went outside to retrieve a ball I left in the yard while it was cold overnight only to find it has no bounce left. Well, the same can be applied tonight. In football, the rule of thumb was 40 or below before the K ball rule came into play. Now that balls are switched out before every kick, it does not apply. Before that, the ball was often used in field goal kicks. A deflated ball obviously does not fly as far. Games where there were near freezing or sub-freezing temperatures had their totals affected.
Friday Night’s game has a different twist on it in relation to the weather. San Diego is calling for temperatures between 50 and 55 during game time. During continuous plays where the balls are not switched out will cause for a little bit of a slower ball. This is especially true considering the material used in the floor. This floor in this game is made of a synthetic material which combines Oak and Maple. This is the same material used in the Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons are notorious for having the “slowest ball” in all of the NBA. Why is this? 22 teams in the NBA have a floor strictly constructed of maple. MSU and UNC both have courts that are 100% maple. Temperatures are 20-25 degrees colder than a normal gym temperature, combined with a floor material neither of these schools is customary to playing on should cause the ball to be a little bit slower than usual.
Like I said earlier, it is impossible to know how much slower because a game has never been played under these circumstances.
The rims and backboards are another interesting story.
The backboards in this game are made of acrylic plexi-glass and do lose bounce as the temperature gets lower. Tempered plexi-glass which can be found in a few NBA courts provides the most bounce and scientifically weather much slower. Believe it or not, teams do vary their backboard type arena to arena to suit their playing style. Golden State is notorious for having the firmest floor, and tempered backboards because of their run and gun offense. This is a contributing factor to the high totals seen in many Warrior games. In Friday’s game a slower ball off a slower backboard could produce for more missed shots, more defensive rebounds.
The rims in this game should prove to be normal. There is no air inflation or material matter to worry about in this temperature.
Probably the biggest impact I think this venue will have on the game is the depth perception. In a gym, you look up and there is the crowd and the basket. Here players will look up and see sky, the basket and some crowd if they in the right spot. This is going to be a rare and extremely unique factor that will unquestionably impact each player on each team.
Some other factors to consider in this game,
This will likely be the most watched and most bet college basketball game until February. National holiday, special circumstance, ESPN televised event, presidential coverage ect. This is also the first game for both of these teams. You have to believe that both teams are going to be filled with nerves. National television for teams often creates a faster paced, less productive game off the beginning before the 2nd half lull begins. It should be interesting to see how well teams execute off the beginning in relation to the total.
The handle on this game should exceed that of a normal college hoops game. More money means more public input goes into setting the line. Keep this in mind when the numbers are released.
Of course most importantly, this game is on a boat. I realize the obvious boat distractions will not be imminent in this game, but the fact that you are not playing on land should get to a few players. It will be interesting to see if either team can fully find their feet and legs.
SHOULD THIS GAME GO INTO THE ENCLOSED HANGAR…
Then this could be a completely different story. The elements are completely erased and the venue is completely different. I could very well see this becoming a track meet if this goes to the alternate location. There will only be a handful of the 7000 fans available to watch and the area will be much smaller than either of these teams’ gyms.
Depending on which location is confirmed, I can alter the report and obviously alter the play tomorrow.
With so much hype going into this game, it should take an extreme circumstance to move the game indoors. Regardless I am locking in the under the instant the line is released. I fully believe that is the play but I will be happy with a potential middle opportunity if people agree with me. I see this line being around 138.5 and I would not be surprised if it closed a possession or two lower then it opened providing a quality middle opportunity.
Looking forward to seeing that number…
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=873343
Okay, this is probably a little bit late but I needed time to put all my thoughts together.
In case you have not heard, the UNC Michigan State game is being played on a boat tomorrow. With experience on both sides of the counter in the past decade, this match-up is very intriguing to me.
I will go through a couple factors here that make this game different and see what happens when the line is officially released.
First off, if this was a normal neutral court game, this total would be 148-152.
I am going to look at the flight deck court first.
The Court:
This game is being played on the flight deck of the USS Carl Vinson which is located in San Diego. There are seats on four sides of the floor. Each corner of the court is wide open, and obviously so is the roof. In order to block wind, the entire court is wrapped with 30 feet high vinyl.
Don’t think just because the vinyl is there that all the elements of playing a game outside are eliminated.
When it comes to setting lines for baseball, a very important factor I considered was humidity. The humidity is often looked over by bettors, but when extremes on either side of the norm, effects are felt. How much so they will be felt in this game is hard to say. The average humidity in a gym is between 15-25%. San Diego forecasts are calling for humidity in the 60-70% range. For you non weather experts, this means that the air is going to be heavier on the ship. Technically it will be harder to shoot as you will have to shoot the ball further than normal to compensate for the humidity. How much of a difference it will make is to be determined and almost impossible to predict, but something to think about.
The boat is going to be parked with the court facing north and south, meaning that neither team will be shooting into the sun. It has been made clear the sun will not be a factor in the game. I am not worrying about this factor what so ever.
One factor I am considering is the ball/floor material.
One thing I learned in my time setting lines for football is the temperature, probably not for the reasons you’re thinking. If you were a kid growing up in the colder states, you will know a ball in colder temperatures is never fully inflated. I can’t recall how many times as a kid I went outside to retrieve a ball I left in the yard while it was cold overnight only to find it has no bounce left. Well, the same can be applied tonight. In football, the rule of thumb was 40 or below before the K ball rule came into play. Now that balls are switched out before every kick, it does not apply. Before that, the ball was often used in field goal kicks. A deflated ball obviously does not fly as far. Games where there were near freezing or sub-freezing temperatures had their totals affected.
Friday Night’s game has a different twist on it in relation to the weather. San Diego is calling for temperatures between 50 and 55 during game time. During continuous plays where the balls are not switched out will cause for a little bit of a slower ball. This is especially true considering the material used in the floor. This floor in this game is made of a synthetic material which combines Oak and Maple. This is the same material used in the Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons are notorious for having the “slowest ball” in all of the NBA. Why is this? 22 teams in the NBA have a floor strictly constructed of maple. MSU and UNC both have courts that are 100% maple. Temperatures are 20-25 degrees colder than a normal gym temperature, combined with a floor material neither of these schools is customary to playing on should cause the ball to be a little bit slower than usual.
Like I said earlier, it is impossible to know how much slower because a game has never been played under these circumstances.
The rims and backboards are another interesting story.
The backboards in this game are made of acrylic plexi-glass and do lose bounce as the temperature gets lower. Tempered plexi-glass which can be found in a few NBA courts provides the most bounce and scientifically weather much slower. Believe it or not, teams do vary their backboard type arena to arena to suit their playing style. Golden State is notorious for having the firmest floor, and tempered backboards because of their run and gun offense. This is a contributing factor to the high totals seen in many Warrior games. In Friday’s game a slower ball off a slower backboard could produce for more missed shots, more defensive rebounds.
The rims in this game should prove to be normal. There is no air inflation or material matter to worry about in this temperature.
Probably the biggest impact I think this venue will have on the game is the depth perception. In a gym, you look up and there is the crowd and the basket. Here players will look up and see sky, the basket and some crowd if they in the right spot. This is going to be a rare and extremely unique factor that will unquestionably impact each player on each team.
Some other factors to consider in this game,
This will likely be the most watched and most bet college basketball game until February. National holiday, special circumstance, ESPN televised event, presidential coverage ect. This is also the first game for both of these teams. You have to believe that both teams are going to be filled with nerves. National television for teams often creates a faster paced, less productive game off the beginning before the 2nd half lull begins. It should be interesting to see how well teams execute off the beginning in relation to the total.
The handle on this game should exceed that of a normal college hoops game. More money means more public input goes into setting the line. Keep this in mind when the numbers are released.
Of course most importantly, this game is on a boat. I realize the obvious boat distractions will not be imminent in this game, but the fact that you are not playing on land should get to a few players. It will be interesting to see if either team can fully find their feet and legs.
SHOULD THIS GAME GO INTO THE ENCLOSED HANGAR…
Then this could be a completely different story. The elements are completely erased and the venue is completely different. I could very well see this becoming a track meet if this goes to the alternate location. There will only be a handful of the 7000 fans available to watch and the area will be much smaller than either of these teams’ gyms.
Depending on which location is confirmed, I can alter the report and obviously alter the play tomorrow.
With so much hype going into this game, it should take an extreme circumstance to move the game indoors. Regardless I am locking in the under the instant the line is released. I fully believe that is the play but I will be happy with a potential middle opportunity if people agree with me. I see this line being around 138.5 and I would not be surprised if it closed a possession or two lower then it opened providing a quality middle opportunity.
Looking forward to seeing that number…
There is not too much to say about this game aside from the fact that it is a phenomenal fade of Butler and a tremendous spot for Evansville.
This is motivational and situational handicapping at its finest.
Butler is coming off back to back championship game losses. Only difference is this year, they will not have ANYONE they had from last season. Well, maybe a slight exaggeration. They will have two seniors, Ronald Nored and Garrett Butcher. Lost from those two runner up teams are heart and soul, Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack, Shawn Vanzant.
This Butler team looked extremely inexperienced and uncoordinated in preseason play against Northern State (who?) and Franklin University.
Evansville on the other hand opens up this season in a brand new stadium. For the first time in 55 years, Evansville will play a home game outside of Robert Stadium. A new playing venue is always a major motivation boost. Everyone wants to christen in the home with a victory, especially against an instate rival.
This line opened up with the Aces as a 3.5 point home dog and has not moved an inch despite nearly 9 of every 10 bets coming in on Butler. With a majority of the big name teams playing yesterday and today being a big college football card, this handle is minimal, but is the second biggest of the college hoops card.
The last four runner ups from the championship game have failed to cover their first game the next season, I expect this to be five as Evansville gets the job done over the Butler Bulldogs this afternoon.
Evansville Aces +3.5 5*
This is motivational and situational handicapping at its finest.
Butler is coming off back to back championship game losses. Only difference is this year, they will not have ANYONE they had from last season. Well, maybe a slight exaggeration. They will have two seniors, Ronald Nored and Garrett Butcher. Lost from those two runner up teams are heart and soul, Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack, Shawn Vanzant.
This Butler team looked extremely inexperienced and uncoordinated in preseason play against Northern State (who?) and Franklin University.
Evansville on the other hand opens up this season in a brand new stadium. For the first time in 55 years, Evansville will play a home game outside of Robert Stadium. A new playing venue is always a major motivation boost. Everyone wants to christen in the home with a victory, especially against an instate rival.
This line opened up with the Aces as a 3.5 point home dog and has not moved an inch despite nearly 9 of every 10 bets coming in on Butler. With a majority of the big name teams playing yesterday and today being a big college football card, this handle is minimal, but is the second biggest of the college hoops card.
The last four runner ups from the championship game have failed to cover their first game the next season, I expect this to be five as Evansville gets the job done over the Butler Bulldogs this afternoon.
Evansville Aces +3.5 5*
Play Over any total of 155 or higher when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Play Under any total of 115 or lower when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Past three seasons: 56.69% win rate.
Common Strength + Common Strength = One Dimensional Outcome.
In order for a total to be extreme high or low, you must have exceptionally offensive or defensive minded teams playing against each other.
College athletes have short term memories. When a team that is “extreme” gets a victory, it is always due to playing to their particular strength. Coming off a victory, players tend to go with what worked last game. When matched up against an opponent with a common strength, the game becomes one dimensional. I find each team’s strength gets enhanced by the mirror image opponent.
The only factor working against this trend is line movement. Oddsmakers are tremendously sensitive with extreme totals. When money comes in in favor of the extreme, the line responds instantly.
When playing extremes, I lock my bet in as early as possible to ensure the best price.
VMI AIR FORCE OVER 160 5*
Play Under any total of 115 or lower when both teams are coming off victories in their last game.
Past three seasons: 56.69% win rate.
Common Strength + Common Strength = One Dimensional Outcome.
In order for a total to be extreme high or low, you must have exceptionally offensive or defensive minded teams playing against each other.
College athletes have short term memories. When a team that is “extreme” gets a victory, it is always due to playing to their particular strength. Coming off a victory, players tend to go with what worked last game. When matched up against an opponent with a common strength, the game becomes one dimensional. I find each team’s strength gets enhanced by the mirror image opponent.
The only factor working against this trend is line movement. Oddsmakers are tremendously sensitive with extreme totals. When money comes in in favor of the extreme, the line responds instantly.
When playing extremes, I lock my bet in as early as possible to ensure the best price.
VMI AIR FORCE OVER 160 5*
