Vegas Locals: How Much Is Too Much?

[wilheim]

Geez wil, have you never played craps? Noisy high 5's are part of the game

I've played some craps during the 15 years I lived in Vegas but the point was Junkie seemed to be concerned about being tracked and kicked out so imo a low profile would serve him well. Comps were never mentioned in his original post and are another subject than the one addressed early in the thread. FWIW noisy high fives while fun are for tourists if anybody cares.


wil.

 

[Doug]

PS: i am under no misconception that i think im right... i just want to understand why i am soooo wrong!

because there isn't a single bet on a craps table with positive expectation, nor any combination of bets .

Quit while you are ahead, or do it for fun ! Ever wonder why touts don't tout craps ?

 

[IDENTITY]

mr. smith - i could not believe the same thing. this is a martindale system...sooner or later, you will get crushed by the table limit, sir. good luck while the good fortune lasts...

 

[VegasJunkie+]

i understand that when looked at individually it bets are not in my favor. but since i double the bet, it exponentially decreases the odds for the house.

i.e. the coin theory. (This way i can answer both of you). sure lets just say 50% to keep it simple for MR. Smith. Sure each individual time we flip a coin the odds are only 50% (so your point that the house always has better odds). but since i double my bet i always win my money back and the original bet when it finally hits. so when it sevens out, then i double it, then double that if it drops, then double it when that drops.

the coin thing: sure its 50% each time. but the probabilty of heads 10X in a row is much less than 50% because you have to multiply the probabilty of each flip with one another. so heads 1 time 50%. but then twice is .25 because its 1/2 X 1/2 the probabilty because it has to do it consecutivly.

so over time dont we win the odds, unless the miricle happens that it 7's out soo many times consecutifly that we cant cover it anymore (i.e. 8 times)

 

[VegasJunkie+]

so i guess its clear that over time the table limit is what is going to evidently kill me. now... it really seems that plenty of you have played craps for an extreamly long time. now the question is, what is the most amount of consecutive point, seven out have you seen happen consecutivly?

 

[Doug]

mr. smith - i could not believe the same thing. this is a martindale system...sooner or later, you will get crushed by the table limit, sir. good luck while the good fortune lasts...

ID; That's Martingale


I don't agree with opening statement here... every casino game has -EV

http://www.wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems.html

 

[VegasJunkie+]

dougJ... that was the best post in the world.. thank you soo much!

 

[Doug]

i understand that when looked at individually it bets are not in my favor. but since i double the bet, it exponentially decreases the odds for the house.

i.e. the coin theory. (This way i can answer both of you). sure lets just say 50% to keep it simple for MR. Smith. Sure each individual time we flip a coin the odds are only 50% (so your point that the house always has better odds). but since i double my bet i always win my money back and the original bet when it finally hits. so when it sevens out, then i double it, then double that if it drops, then double it when that drops.

the coin thing: sure its 50% each time. but the probabilty of heads 10X in a row is much less than 50% because you have to multiply the probabilty of each flip with one another. so heads 1 time 50%. but then twice is .25 because its 1/2 X 1/2 the probabilty because it has to do it consecutivly.

so over time dont we win the odds, unless the miricle happens that it 7's out soo many times consecutifly that we cant cover it anymore (i.e. 8 times)

It ain't such a miracle to lose 8 in a row ! Odds are 511:1 against A coin lands tails more often by the way. I've explained the reasons before, look up previous posts.

A random number generator is more viable. The 7 out would adjust downward to maybe 500:1. It's rare but devestating when happens to a martinGale player.

You can't beat math, that's what built LV, quit while you can and be happy to be ahead, well ahead by the sound of it.

 

[tatehill2000]

I Use a Similar system for Roulette,,, it Garnered the SAME feelings vegas,,, lol,,, so Dont feel like your alone,,, I posted my Formula for all to see,,, it got VERY FEW Constructive opinions,,

If I can Offer you an opinion,,,, I would Take the Discussion Away from THIS FORUM,,, and Move it to the YAHOO CRAPS GROUPS,,there are 2 of them,,, 1 of them is Very popular,,,, just go there,,and you will get Positve suggestions,,and TRUE answers,,,

I would Love to Discuss it with you through emials,,, I would be Happy to send you my Roulette formula,, it is Dam Good if I do say so myself,,,, I have 2 formulas,,, I will give you both,,, but in Exchange I would like you to explain in detial your Progression and Play on the Craps table,,,

I cant Give you my EMAIL,, But If you ask BUCSFAN or GENERAL or JOURNEYMAN,,they will give you my Email

good luck Vegas,,,

tater

 

[Mr.Smith]

if your trying to say that if you have lost 4 or 5 in a row the odds are better that your going to win the next one, that is not true.

after a 7 out when a new roll begins, your odds are about 50/50 regardless whether you won or lost the last 5 in a row.

each coin flip/roll of the dice/ roulette spin, etc. is an independant event. your odds never get any better or worse due to what happened previously.

I am certain no one can talk you out of your system though, so good luck. unfortunately, eventually ( I like to see people beat casinos, so I hope you can avoid this) you are going to lose like 14 straight times. It may happen next visit, maybe not for a year. All those profits you grinded out with your betting style will go kaput when thisx happens.

your betting system is hundreds of years old. it doesnt work, if it did, no one would work for a living. we would all be at a roulette table or craps table 5 days a week doubling up after each loss until we win. if that worked, we would all be rich. but good luck to you.

 

[Doug]

so i guess its clear that over time the table limit is what is going to evidently kill me. now... it really seems that plenty of you have played craps for an extreamly long time. now the question is, what is the most amount of consecutive point, seven out have you seen happen consecutivly?

I doubt I've played craps for more than 2 hours in my life. I'm bored in 5 minutes with the game. I'm sure I've played Blackjack for months, perhaps even a year, or more, in real time. I just have an extreme interest in gambling.

 

[moseyesly]

Yes, this is a martingale system. They are as old as Vegas, actually much older. This thought that you will never see 8 consecutive losses is ridiculous. EVERYTHING will happen over time. I have won 16 consecutive B.J. hands, and lost 10 consecutive. I'm really glad you are on a winning streak, as long as you stay within the table limits the casinos will welcome your action. Please be prepared for the inevitable big money losses coming your way.

 

[Doug]

I Use a Similar system for Roulette,,, it Garnered the SAME feelings vegas,,, lol,,, so Dont feel like your alone,,, I posted my Formula for all to see,,, it got VERY FEW Constructive opinions,,

If I can Offer you an opinion,,,, I would Take the Discussion Away from THIS FORUM,,, and Move it to the YAHOO CRAPS GROUPS,,there are 2 of them,,, 1 of them is Very popular,,,, just go there,,and you will get Positve suggestions,,and TRUE answers,,,

I would Love to Discuss it with you through emials,,, I would be Happy to send you my Roulette formula,, it is Dam Good if I do say so myself,,,, I have 2 formulas,,, I will give you both,,, but in Exchange I would like you to explain in detial your Progression and Play on the Craps table,,,

I cant Give you my EMAIL,, But If you ask BUCSFAN or GENERAL or JOURNEYMAN,,they will give you my Email

good luck Vegas,,,

tater

Best luck to you Tate. I like your hoops logic. I'm too math oriented for roulette and craps. I hope you kill them with it !

Best Luck,

Doug

 

[Woody0]

"The Man That Broke The Bank At Monte Carlo"

Words and Music by Fred Gilbert (1892)
English Music Hall performer Charles Coborn's biggest hit song,
still remembered fondly to this day.

http://pages.britishlibrary.net/mikepymm/new_page_21.htm

A popular pre-Boer war song that maintained interest throughout the first half of the 20th century. Supposedly based upon a true incident and the reason for the imposition of table limits in the Casino de Monte Carlo.

Pre-ceded early Las Vegas by almost half a century.

 

[Mr.Smith]

I remember hearing something about that. It was an urban legend of the day. the bank at the Monte Carlo was never broken.

judging by how bad gamblers are today, even with all the accurate info out there on all the games, I can hardly imagine how bad they must have been then.

 

[BROMOx]

I've personally hit 14 blacks in a row at roulette (at $1K a spin) while turning $150 into $15,000. A week later I turned $300 into $24,000 hitting 14 blacks in a row again. I have seen all black and all red boards. Is that 26 in a row? I don't remember. I've lost 24 hands in a row at blackjack before. It all happens eventually. And if the table limits don't crush you, one bad run will.

Good luck.

 

[Doug]

I remember hearing something about that. It was an urban legend of the day. the bank at the Monte Carlo was never broken.

judging by how bad gamblers are today, even with all the accurate info out there on all the games, I can hardly imagine how bad they must have been then.

Reminds of the X-files... Mulders office... the poster on wall... " I want to Believe"

 

[Doug]

I've personally hit 14 blacks in a row at roulette (at $1K a spin) while turning $150 into $15,000. A week later I turned $300 into $24,000 hitting 14 blacks in a row again. I have seen all black and all red boards. Is that 26 in a row? I don't remember. I've lost 24 hands in a row at blackjack before. It all happens eventually. And if the table limits don't crush you, one bad run will.

Good luck.

quite extreme, losing 24 hands of BJ in a row is easy if you try to do so. I'll maintain that craps in particular is unbeatable, and yes Tate Roulette to boot !

I'll live with math, die with it ! Show me some math guys like tate, then I'll consider it possible, I'm open minded, but want solid math from you guys !

 

[Baker]

Here's a little math on Martingale systems.



With any Martingale system that has a maximum bet, and therefore a maximum number of losses that can be withstood, the amount won is a series is equal to the amount lost when the expected winning percentage is 50%. For example, if the maximum amount of plays "doubling up" allowed at a table without exceeding the table maximum is 8 there are 256 possible series combinations, each of which have the same odds of occurring. Out of these 256 combinations the only losing combination is L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L, which will happen 1 out of every 256 8 play series. This leaves 255 series combinations where you will win 1 unit. The problem is that in the one series you lose you will lose exactly 255 units (Bets of 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128=255). This net of zero is the same whether you are playing a series of 3 or 100, with a 50% winning percentage you will simply break even over time.



Now the above example assumes a winning percentage of 50%, which no casino game offers. When the winning percentage goes down by even 1% to 49% the results are devastating. Out of 256 series plays, with a series ending either when you win or when you lose 8 in a row, you will now win only 254.8 and lose 1.2. This might seem like a small disadvantage but over time playing $100 units this would equate to a loss of ~$5,500 every 256 series plays. I am no craps expert but I think the house has about a 3% advantage. With an expected winning percentage of 47% you can expect to lose ~$19,300 every 256 series you play.



What is interesting is that in sports betting anyone with a winning percentage of over 51.22% (paying 5% big) or 52.381% (paying 10% vig) benefits greatly from using a martingale system. One example, if you have a winning percentage of 55% you will average a profit of ~7.8 units per 100 plays (paying 5% vig). If you insert these same 100 plays into a 3 series martingale system, still with a winning percentage of 55%, you could expect a profit of ~12.8 units. This would be a martingale system with a maximum bet of only 4 units. There are some drawbacks such as the plays have to be consecutive, but these can be overcome. There are also other ways to take maximize this advantage. Tater and Mikechad are making money not because of their system, but actually because they incorporated winning picks with a profit maximizing betting system.



All right I can assume I have bored everyone half to death by this point. To answer VegasJunkies question, I am 100% positive that you won't be getting taken to the back room of any casinos any time soon. You may want to reevaluate your system before you hit a few of the "miracle" 8 loss in a row series (that have roughly a .685% chance of hitting) that are surely waiting right around the corner to get you and your money.


Regards,

Baker

 

[tatehill2000]

Doug,,,

thanks for being a standup Guy in this converstaion,,, very few are capable,,or have the patience,,, I am at my girls computer(her house) so I dont have my number VAULTS,,, yes I have hundreds of thousands of spins,,,, that are actual spins,,,, Using a RNG(random Number Generator) isnt Based on reality,,, sothere is always flaws,,,I have Developed many systems to beat RNGs lol,,, but when it comes to casinos,,,theyalways lost,,,LOL,,,, so I researched and Looked for REAL NUMBER Books,,, and FILES,,, and re worked my systems,,,,

they win now,,, I will give you a number grouping file if you want one,,, there are 100 thous spins in it,,,

My NBA QUITFACTOR FORMULA is based on a Martingal;e SYSTEM and it is almost hitting 60%,,, yes the difference is here I have a Handicaped Methodology Built in,,,, I have done similar with Rolette,,,

My Handicap with Roulette is I used the Law of the Third, and Sleeping Number Theories in my formula,,,

anyway,,,, I did it VISUALLY with NBA(everyone is witnessing) , and I did it with Roulette,,,

HOWEVER,,,, and heres the Big however,,,, I Spent OVER 3 Years and Literally a Hund thous Hours working on my formulas,,, LOL,,, MARTINGALES 99.99999999 DONT WORK!!!!
they Just DONTDONTDONTDONTDONT!!!

and unless someone is willing to put in the time and some of their Meaningless LIFE into an ANGLE like me,,,LOL,, then STOP now, and go play some ONLINE poker,,,

Doug I am Ending this with You are RIGHT!!! 99.9999999%
all the best my friend,,,
tater