Value betting

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Good post, but I strongly disagree with you.

I can most certainly set a market value on ANYTHING with no handicapping just based on a weighted average of what the sharpest books are dealing. Whether it be Swank to win best actress or Duke vs. Md.

NO QUESTION, you can then set a sharper line if you are a good handicapper and tweak the starting market average by a bit with your handicapping opinion. NO QUESTION, this will make you more money in the long run.

Where many decent handicappers fail, is they are way too egotistical. If the market has the line at -6.8 on a game, and their numbers have the line 3, and you ask them what their best unbiased estimate of the true line, they will say "3", rather than take a weighted average of the market and their number (and use a smore reasonable estimate of 5 for example).

Try to point out to these stiffs the obvious (hey, if lines were off by 4 points you would be hitting over 60%) and they backpedal like a fat center fielder with sun in their eyes, saying ridiculous stuff like "I do hit 60% on most games, but there are a few that for unforseen reasons I'm wrong on select games, but usually my numbers are right").

Don't even try to ask them why they aren't betting cars on their "60%" plays, like Kelly Criterion demands. They will refuse to say that 60% is way too optimistic, and rather say silly stuff like "Kelly doesn't work".

Everyone thinks 58% handicapping is an easy goal for gifted handicappers. Hahahhahahahhaahha. I'd bet anyone in the world $10,000 they cannot hit 58% on any select season on 100 plays vs. widely available lines. The best in the world hit 55-58% over all their plays, and make a boat load of money doing it. Most "good" handicappers are in the 52-55% range, accurately identifying games off by 1-2 points on average.

.....In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king. :monsters-
 

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I wholly agree with that. If guys bet day in day out (and survive) then hitting anything over 54% is next to impssible in my opinion (in spread based sports).


Everyone has runs but eventually they go bad. That is why I am no bg follower of kelly or any other wieghted system. If it worked then anyone with a brain would be making money enough to never work again. But you don't see many pro sports gambler in Forbes 500, any gamblers at all for that matter.

Because logic would dictate that by reinvesting your winnings within a very short time you could become a billionaire. But for some reason it doesn't work that way.:icon_conf

But you sy it yourself. YOUR wieghted average, might not be a true market line. It is actually YOUR personal line. Which may or may not be the "correct" number.

Again this may be semantice. But maybe it is the best way to figure it out. But then again the so called "sharp" books also move quite abit off numbers in short periods of time. So were their original numbers soft, wrong, or looking to get action? It is much more prevelant in baseball. But watch Pinnacles numbers this spring and summer. I am sure you already do. But I saw 30-40 cent moves on their game many many time last year. Not all was due to money I am sure. So trying to figure out what is right, and what is wrong is very difficult.

But I don't care at that point, I really dont care what is value. I simply bet both sides and take what I can get. One can say you can bet the "bad' side or "right" side and win more than you lose. But again, if it were that simple then everyone would be doing it,and it has been discussed ad nauseum on here about using Pin and following them. Haven't heard many people getting rich going with their flow either. So I will take my scalps and get as many as I can, and not worry about who is right and who is wrong.

Give me numbers that I can get a nickle on and no limit and I could be a bilionaire. Or break the books eventually. That is fact, anyone could do it. But give me lines moving and years of data, and I couldn't guarantee you sh it, and niether can anyone else.

I know this got off on a tangeant. But to me scalping is more synonomus with value than getting an extra half point here or there. But it all falls under the heading of shopping and looking for the best number on the side you are looking to take.
 

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valueman said:
WoodyO - poor example as you would have to take into account potential gains too in that Poker hand but agree with the sentiment.

Valueman, please reread my post. I covered my ass by saying "If you put in 1 bet to win 3 it is a bad bet even if you win and you will go broke playing in this manner."

I wanted to keep it simple and that statement is indeed correct. I did not want to get into (potential gains) implied odds etc.
 

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wantitall4moi said:
One last comment on the cards angle. Most professional payers will not chase a flush when they have a lot of chips, even if they are getting better than 4-1, ...

My mistake, I should have made it clear I was referring to limit holdem.
 

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I agree that it would be extremely rare for anyone to go over 60% over the course of a season for their picks. However, I do believe someone can hit that number by specializing in one or two teams, even after hitting bad streaks.

I am thinking of not betting teams I know little about and stick to 2 or 3 teams in each sport. I believe I will do a lot better that way. I am hitting 24-12 in the NBA on the Suns. Why should I continue to bet on teams I know little about?
 

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valueman said:
You guys have no concept of Value betting. If you do not have reliable methods to determine probabilities of outcomes then it is all subjective and speculation as to what is value betting. Shopping the best line is common sense not value betting.

I tend to agree with this. This is why I used the Superbowl as a reference. If you want to deal in facts to prove value we can do this with the Superbowl. It is a fact that the Superbowl is the most public game of the most public sport. It is a fact that the public likes to bet the favorite and the over in the Superbowl. It is a fact that the Pats were thought of as unbeatable by the public. Those are undisputable facts.

It was reasonable to assume that the Eagles could keep it close based on some solid factors. Now those are speculative. But how can you argue this is relative. We knew we were getting extra points at lower than -110. It does not matter whether we won or lost, if we put our money in the pot with these conditions every day, we win. Period. There is no argument about the presence of value. I think Fessik might argue that we are not getting value if we don't get the best line available but I tend to think you just get more value that way. I realize that in practice getting value means getting the best line but on rare occasions like the Superbowl there were multiple lines offering value.
 

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wantitall4moi said:
I wholly agree with that. If guys bet day in day out (and survive) then hitting anything over 54% is next to impssible in my opinion (in spread based sports).


Everyone has runs but eventually they go bad. That is why I am no bg follower of kelly or any other wieghted system. If it worked then anyone with a brain would be making money enough to never work again. But you don't see many pro sports gambler in Forbes 500, any gamblers at all for that matter.

Because logic would dictate that by reinvesting your winnings within a very short time you could become a billionaire. But for some reason it doesn't work that way.:icon_conf

But you sy it yourself. YOUR wieghted average, might not be a true market line. It is actually YOUR personal line. Which may or may not be the "correct" number.

Again this may be semantice. But maybe it is the best way to figure it out. But then again the so called "sharp" books also move quite abit off numbers in short periods of time. So were their original numbers soft, wrong, or looking to get action? It is much more prevelant in baseball. But watch Pinnacles numbers this spring and summer. I am sure you already do. But I saw 30-40 cent moves on their game many many time last year. Not all was due to money I am sure. So trying to figure out what is right, and what is wrong is very difficult.

But I don't care at that point, I really dont care what is value. I simply bet both sides and take what I can get. One can say you can bet the "bad' side or "right" side and win more than you lose. But again, if it were that simple then everyone would be doing it,and it has been discussed ad nauseum on here about using Pin and following them. Haven't heard many people getting rich going with their flow either. So I will take my scalps and get as many as I can, and not worry about who is right and who is wrong.

Give me numbers that I can get a nickle on and no limit and I could be a bilionaire. Or break the books eventually. That is fact, anyone could do it. But give me lines moving and years of data, and I couldn't guarantee you sh it, and niether can anyone else.

I know this got off on a tangeant. But to me scalping is more synonomus with value than getting an extra half point here or there. But it all falls under the heading of shopping and looking for the best number on the side you are looking to take.

A scalp has an expected value - that is - what you make on it. Scalps are not the only way to get expected value in sports betting.
 

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WoodyO - Nice of you to correct yourself AFTER trying to correct me in specifying limit holdem.
 

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