Utah Jazz on remarkable run against the spread ?

[Michelangelo]

I wouldn't go that route unless you really like Charlotte for some reason. You gotta evaluate each game individually. Lots of reasons to like Utah in that game IMO.

Plus you have to remember Utah had a loss in the middle of that 20-1 stretch, and responded to that loss to Denver VERY well and started killing teams. So that alone kind of debunks that logic

I'm talking ATS here, bud. When they had that loss to Denver in the middle of their first streak, that was also their first loss ATS in 11 games, just as it was their first outright loss. The current streak was also a SU and ATS streak. They lost SU and ATS. The air comes out of the balloon.Now I'm expecting another ATS letdown. Maybe even SU. But I care about ATS. We'll see.

Good luck.

 

[Avocado33]

I'm talking ATS here, bud. When they had that loss to Denver in the middle of their first streak, that was also their first loss ATS in 11 games, just as it was their first outright loss. The current streak was also a SU and ATS streak. They lost SU and ATS. The air comes out of the balloon.Now I'm expecting another ATS letdown. Maybe even SU. But I care about ATS. We'll see.

Good luck.

Maybe we are talking past each other, but why didn’t they have an ATS letdown after that loss to Denver? The opposite happened...In other words, they actually responded with another huge streak.

Good luck I guess

 

[Michelangelo]

Maybe we are talking past each other, but why didn’t they have an ATS letdown after that loss to Denver? The opposite happened...In other words, they actually responded with another huge streak.

Good luck I guess

I'm talking about next game only, Avocado. They lost to the Ats in the game after Denver.

This let down theory is cross sports. I have had good (not perfect but good) success with it.

 

[Avocado33]

I'm talking about next game only, Avocado. They lost to the Ats in the game after Denver.

This let down theory is cross sports. I have had good (not perfect but good) success with it.

They pushed that game if I recall. Definitely did not lose ATS, as Denver was the only loss during the run

(line actually moved to 11.5 day of at times, so possible to win)

And they were up 23 points at halftime of that game and let up late. So not sure if that was a good example TBH.

It will really depend on what the line is. Charlotte is a team that's not really as good as their record. Utah will be well-rested

 

[Michelangelo]

They pushed that game if I recall. Definitely did not lose ATS, as Denver was the only loss during the run

(line actually moved to 11.5 day of at times, so possible to win)

And they were up 23 points at halftime of that game and let up late. So not sure if that was a good example TBH.

It will really depend on what the line is. Charlotte is a team that's not really as good as their record. Utah will be well-rested

I'm using Statfox. They show it as an ATS loss.

Doesn't matter. If you don't believe in the letdown theory it's all good.

But I'll be playing Charlotte +12' tonight because I believe in it.

Good luck.

 

[exploited17]

1st game of an East to West(or West to East) 5 game road trip. Usually those trips(3 or more) don't end in a first game blowout unless they are stone cold and off losing a few games. But I would say play small either way
Jazz are a fade against good teams on the road

 

[Avocado33]

Jazz should win this game by double-digits, but probably a stay away. Wouldn't blindly fade them, though they may very well fail to cover with such a big line.

Similar to the Detroit game after the loss to the Nuggets in the middle of the 20-1 stretch.

Good luck if you have action

 

[powerz]

I have been following ( and playing ) this remarkable run and I can say the Oddsmakers have been lagging behind the Utah's current form number which is why they cashed so many tickets - Tonight However they favored by 2 too many points based on current form, its unusual for the value to be on their opponent.

Time to fade, but small because the variance is not a great amount - 1 basket

 

[Avocado33]

I'm using Statfox. They show it as an ATS loss.

Doesn't matter. If you don't believe in the letdown theory it's all good.

But I'll be playing Charlotte +12' tonight because I believe in it.

Good luck.

I totally get what you're saying about letdown; just don't love this particular spot for it -- because of BOTH teams situationally

Nevertheless, good luck! I hope Charlotte covers, cuz I got no action

 

[Mr_Mark]

I am taking the Hornets ATS and Jazz ML. I usually don't bet this way but need to make the NBA more interesting for me today. GL everyone

 

[Michelangelo]

I totally get what you're saying about letdown; just don't love this particular spot for it -- because of BOTH teams situationally

Nevertheless, good luck! I hope Charlotte covers, cuz I got no action

The letdown theory is a situational. One of the most powerful that overrides all other situationals.

It can even be understood. The winning adrenalin that propelled Utah is gone. The streak is over. Charlotte on the other hand still looks at Utah as a formidable opponent, one they would love to beat.

It's only one game and one angle so we'll live or die however you choose to play the game. I'm just sharing the angle.

Good luck.

 

[Avocado33]

The letdown theory is a situational. One of the most powerful that overrides all other situationals.

It can even be understood. The winning adrenalin that propelled Utah is gone. The streak is over. Charlotte on the other hand still looks at Utah as a formidable opponent, one they would love to beat.

It's only one game and one angle so we'll live or die however you choose to play the game. I'm just sharing the angle.

Good luck.

What I was saying in earlier post is you gotta evaluate every game differently. Didn’t think it was a bad angle, but I would recommend focusing on WHO they’re playing

Said Utah should win by double digits. Charlotte is a team that is way worse than their record, coming off a dramatic and draining win against the Warriors without Curry, that they had absolutely no business winning

Then they traveled cross country to play a steaming team at home with an extra day of rest. Plus the team they’re playing against is way better than them.

The letdown theory kind of applied I guess, but they recovered in time to completely dominate a bad basketball team.

 

[Michelangelo]

Apologize to anyone who followed my bad pick on Charlotte.

The letdown theory let me down.

Do we now hop right back on Utah?

 

[exploited17]

Lakers have been horrible without Davis.
I think Utah or nothing
If you fade them do it on the road vs a good team
Doesn't mean they will cover EVERY game at home or against a bad team. But I would think you will not make money fading them unless it is against good teams. And probably on the road

 

[Avocado33]

Lakers are kind of just dicking around right now. No clue what the line will be, but probably a stay away or Jazz wager

The time to take the Lakers will be in the playoffs

 

[Michelangelo]

Gonna jump on another streak tonight.

Cleveland has lost 10 straight SU and 13 straight ATS.

Atlanta needs the win. Atl -7'

 

[Avocado33]

Jazz are -8 tomorrow against the Lakers

Lakers ML +275ish; don't see that much

 

[exploited17]

Suns are 20-0 ats when they win
Can they do it again and win by 10 or more?

 

[Michelangelo]

Gonna jump on another streak tonight.

Cleveland has lost 10 straight SU and 13 straight ATS.

Atlanta needs the win. Atl -7'

Feel like a mush. Jeez.

 

[Avocado33]

Suns are 20-0 ats when they win
Can they do it again and win by 10 or more?

I think so, unless they are looking past for some reason