USC vs V.TECH...............SATURDAY

wantitall4moi · Aug 29, 2004

Fish-

Actually you didn't do anything "wrong".

You liked USC, you saw what you thought was a good number, and bet it. There is no problem in that. At least you didn't bet USC just because the line moved down, you bet them because you liked the team.

That is the whole point of my post. letting line moves and so called "sharp" money influence your play.

Which bring up another point that I didn't mention. Say you did have USC -18.5, and then on someone's say so you tried to "get out", and took VT at +16, and then the game ended 27-10, then what? You got Polish middled. Of course that is another "what if", but it happens.

Like I say this is all easy to discuss AFTER the game, but when you look at the stuff posted BEFORE the game, it is apparent that these thoughts cross everyone's minds.

quantumleap · Aug 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wantitall4moi:
You liked USC, you saw what you thought was a good number, and bet it. There is no problem in that. At least you didn't bet USC just because the line moved down, you bet them because you liked the team.

That is the whole point of my post. letting line moves and so called "sharp" money influence your play.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I'm glad you made a clarification here. At first it sounded like you were justifying your point by this one game, but that wasn't the point you were trying to get across.

I seem to remember someone doing a study on how successful people are by betting line moves only. It turns out not very successful at all. There are several reasons books move a line. It is not always "smart money" or "square money".

One thing I do believe in and that is a line is skewed against a public team, a team that has a lot of followers like the Lakers or Yankees. Books know that they can get people to bet on these public teams and therefore can set a line against them.

ATX · Aug 29, 2004

Wanitall's points are almost exactly in line with what I think, especially regarding the psychology of the sports market. Lines dont move JUST because of one-sided action, it often depends on WHO the money comes FROM. A guy with a 58% win rate over the last 3 years that takes limits is going to move the line one way. A degenerate and his buddies that win maybe 45% of the time arent going to move lines much no matter how much they get down. Every situation is a little different but 'smart' money is going to move the line a LOT more than the other way around. Especially when the books know a line ain't real tight, they are going to move it even if more money is coming in the other way. There's a psychology to this and part of it is understanding why a line in a specific game will move a specific way. Books would much rather get beat by the public in the short term because their lack of money management gives it right back plus some. Congrats to the winners.

GreenDoberman · Aug 29, 2004

Once again people, stop focusing on the name players and glamour positions. Look at the offensive and defensive lines, it takes time for these units to gel. Lots of returning starters is a good sign early, and a lack of experience will hurt.

THE SHRINK · Aug 29, 2004

ATX,

Excellent post...

THE SHRINK

ethan · Aug 30, 2004

Mr. shrink,

Couldnt have played out any better. VTech is one of the best teams to play on the board in the first weeks of the season. College foots is all about coaching and method much more than skill play. Good linemen play, special teams and takeaways get covers. Most important is coaching philosophy and BCS crap. Do we run it up? do we empty the bench? Joe Paterno vs Phil Fulmer.