UFC Fight Night 89 - Betting Info / Predictions

[NewYorkKnight]

Valerie Letourneau (8-3)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 33 Weight: *125 lbs Reach: 68.5″
•Last Fight: Dec loss / Joanna Jedrzejczyk (11-14-15)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ Amateur Kickboxing experience
+ 4 KO victories
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Good volume & combination work
+ Accurate left hook
+ Hard counter right-hand
+ Excellent left switch kick
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Favors over-hooks & knees
+ Improved TD defense (88%)
– Lacks head movement
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Physically durable/recovers well



Joanne Calderwood (10-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 29 Weight: *125 lbs Reach: 66.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Cortney Casey (7-18-15)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 19-2 as a Pro Kickboxer
+ 4 KO victories
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Throws w/volume & variety
+ Accurate knees
^ In close of off the shuffle
+ Strong clinch game
^ Elbows, knees, & trips
+ Underrated grappling
^ Improved positional awareness
+/-Willingness to exchange
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Physically durable/recovers well



Summary:

Kicking off the main card is the UFC’s first female flyweight fight, as Valerie “Trouble” Letourneau takes on Joanne “JoJo” Calderwood. Coming off a failed bid for the strawweight title last November, the former bantamweight will search for middle-ground as Valerie looks to get back on the winning track. Now training in her Canadian counterpart’s backyard, Scotland’s own Calderwood will also be looking to experiment her skill set at a new weight class.

As seen above in the above supplemental sections for both ladies, these two fight styles line up very similarly on paper. Since both combatants possess a solid takedown defense rate with a high propensity to trade, I suspect most of this match to contest standing on the feet. With both women’s stalking tendencies tailor-made for a collision course, I will attempt to give my take on what we could see from each fighter.

Also known as “Dr. Kneevil“, Joanne Calderwood has a knack for knees on the inside or off the shuffle. Feinting effectively off of her Thai marches, Calderwood enters off a multitude of strikes she carries in her arsenal. Favoring uppercut-hook combinations to get going, Joanne often scores with a nice check-jab as she exits exchanges. In fact, I feel Calderwood’s propensity to finish combinations off of her left side will serve her particularly well in this fight, especially considering that Letourneau has traditionally struggled with her right eye in contests.

Even though Valerie’s lack of head movement and willingness to trade consistently costs her damage, the same can be said for Calderwood. Similar to a Thomas Almeida, Calderwood’s aggressive application of combinations often come with the cost of counters. Consistently countered by right hands over the top in her last few bouts, this will certainly be a key factor for a Letourneau victory as that is her best punch. Valerie also possesses excellent check hooks and left switch kicks she uses to dissuade her oncoming opposition.

However, I feel the kicking advantage in this contest should belong to the Scottish fighter. Although Calderwood’s leg kicks may be very effective given Letourneau’s last outing, I see Joanne’s teep kick carrying some real value in this fight. As seen in Calderwood’s fight with Ham, she packs a powerful and accurate teep kick. Considering Valerie was caught by this technique on multiple occasions in her fight with Joanna Jedrzejczyk, this could be something to look for from Calderwood.

Just as their ground skills are a wash on paper, the clinch battle may be equally challenging for each fighter. Calderwood does a deceptively good job inside the clinch as she keeps an excellent position of her head at all times. Keeping busy with elbows and knees, one would think the Muay Thai maelstrom of Calderwood would command an advantage. However, Letourneau’s over-hook approach in close was able to nullify the ferocious forearm framing of Joanna Jedrzejczyk, as I don’t suspect the Canadian will make things easy for Calderwood.

In what is a very close fight, I feel this contest’s key intangibles lie with Calderwood and her last year spent training at Tristar Gym. When you look at Joanne’s skill set on paper, the main things missing are wrestling applications, ring generalship, and jab fundamentals. With all three of those things being something that Firas Zahabi specializes in instilling into his fighters, this could be a perfect fit as we may see a much improved martial artist. Ultimately, I feel Letourneau struggles when faced with Muay Thai based strikers that can match her in volume. Although I am leaning toward Calderwood to get the nod, I recommend caution if you intend on playing this all-action affair.



Official Pick: Calderwood – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Mixed Martial Analyst Remaining Plays ...




Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Stephen Thompson
-Steve Bosse
-Tamdan McCrory

Low Tier Picks:

-Patrick Cote
-Sam Alvey
-Ion Cutelaba


Pieces for your parlay:

-Olivier Aubin-Mercier
-Jason Saggo
-Tamdan McCrory

Props worth looking at(5dimes.eu):

-Cowboy/Cote – Over 2 1/2: -135 (1 Unit)
-Macdonald/Stephens – Under 2 1/2: +150 (.05 Unit)
-Tamdan McCrory- ITD: +105 (1 Unit)
-Patrick Cote – by Decision: +260 (.05 Unit)

Fights to avoid:

-Misha Cirkunov vs Ion Cutelaba
-Randa Markos vs Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger
-Chris Beal vs Joe Soto

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 89
By Patrick Wyman - Bleacher Report



Ali Bagautinov (13-4; 3-2 UFC) vs. Geane Herrera (9-1; 1-1 UFC)

Former title contender Bagautinov looks to rebound from a two-fight losing streak against up-and-coming Floridian Herrera.

Bagautinov, a native of Dagestan, won his first three in the UFC but ran into champion Demetrious Johnson in June 2014, suffering a one-sided defeat. Joseph Benavidez won a competitive but clear decision in Bagautinov's follow-up fight in October after the Dagestani's suspension for erythropoietin usage. Herrera dropped his short-notice debut to blue-chipper Ray Borg but knocked out Joby Sanchez in December.

The former title contender is well-rounded and dangerous. Explosive wrestling complements his crushing power on the feet, and he blends the two nicely. A former world champion in combat sambo, he also drops bombs from top position. Unfortunately, he doesn't throw enough volume, and despite his counterpunching skills, he spends too much time waiting and failing to produce offense at range.

Herrera is an excellent athlete with big power in his hands. He does his best work counterpunching and mixes in flying knees and jumping kicks. On the mat, he's aggressive and dangerous, and he's a competent wrestler. His offense runs hot and cold, however, and he's too willing to accept bottom position.

Prediction: This should be entertaining. Herrera is still raw and has made substantial strides from fight to fight, while Bagautinov is a better wrestler and packs more power on a shot-for-shot basis. This will be close, but Bagautinov takes a fun, back-and-forth decision.



Colby Covington (8-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-0; 0-0 UFC)

Canada's Meunier steps up on short notice to replace the injured Alex Garcia against former NCAA All-American wrestler Covington. Meunier has finished all seven of his professional opponents and has yet to see the third round against decent regional competition. Covington is an excellent prospect who suffered his first professional defeat against Warlley Alves last December.

Wrestling is still Covington's wheelhouse, and he's explosive with his double-leg takedowns. He throws with real power from top position and excels at sneaking in shots in the clinch against the fence. Striking is still a weak point, though, and the southpaw is both limited offensively and hittable as he presses forward.

Meunier is huge for the division at 6'3". While he has a background in kickboxing and throws sharp kicks from both stances, he does his best work with takedowns and top control.

Prediction: Covington's wrestling game should be a huge advantage here. He repeatedly takes down Meunier and works him over from the top for a decision.



Randa Markos (5-3; 1-2 UFC) vs. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-2; 0-1 UFC)

The Ultimate Fighter 20 alum Markos takes on Arizona's Jones-Lybarger in an excellent strawweight matchup. Markos has shown flashes of brilliance in her UFC career but dropped her last fight to Karolina Kowalkiewicz after her lone victory over Aisling Daly. Jones-Lybarger dropped a decision to Tecia Torres on short notice in December.

The Canadian Markos is an excellent athlete blessed with great quickness and real power in her right hand. She throws hard kicks and has an explosive takedown game, but she doesn't show much variety as a striker and struggles to defend takedowns. Jones-Lybarger has a high-output boxing game and is a solid wrestler, but she isn't particularly dangerous or athletic.

Prediction: Markos isn't the striker that Torres is and doesn't keep that kind of pace. While Markos should have a substantial athletic advantage, Jones-Lybarger works faster and should be able to keep it standing. The American takes a decision.



Elias Theodorou (11-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Sam Alvey (26-7, 1 N/C; 3-2 UFC)

The Ultimate Fighter: Nations winner Theodorou looks to rebound from the first loss of his career. Theodorou started his UFC career with three consecutive wins but ran out of gas after a strong first round against Thiago Santos in December. Alvey had strung together a three-fight winning streak of his own, but contender Derek Brunson finished him in two minutes, 19 seconds in August.

His perpetual smile notwithstanding, Alvey is a dangerous fighter. The southpaw is a counterpuncher by trade and packs crushing power in his preferred right hook. Striking defense is a real problem, though, and Alvey is far too hittable for comfort. Strong defensive wrestling keeps him standing, and he's competent in the clinch, but that's the extent of his game.

Theodorou is a quick-paced fighter. He likes to work behind a consistent kicking game and to throw a high volume of strikes at range, which covers his clinch entries and takedowns. The Canadian loves to grind against the fence and throws brutal knees. When he gets to top position, he just never lets up. He's still inexperienced, though, and has holes in his striking game and a tendency to be inefficient with his energy.

Prediction: If Theodorou burns through his gas tank in the first round again, Alvey will be ready to pounce as the fight wears on with his durability. The Canadian isn't a defensive master, and his aggression could get him in trouble against the counterpuncher. The more likely scenario, though, involves Theodorou grinding Alvey in the clinch and wearing him down. Theodorou takes a decision.



Joe Soto (15-5; 0-3 UFC) vs. Chris Beal (10-2; 2-2 UFC)

Former title challenger Soto gets one last chance in the UFC against TUF 18 competitor Beal. Since filling in against TJ Dillashaw on late notice in August 2014, Soto has dropped an additional pair of fights against Anthony Birchak and Michinori Tanaka. Beal has lost two in a row, dropping decisions to Neil Seery and Chris Kelades. The loser will likely receive his walking papers, while the winner will have a new lease on his career.

Soto is technical and well-rounded. A wrestler at Iowa Central Community College, he shoots a lovely single, grapples with real skill on both top and bottom and throws smooth combinations. He's hittable, though, and has a somewhat fragile chin.

Beal is quick and athletic and prefers to box on the feet, but he's not especially powerful and is awkward with his technique. He's a solid wrestler.

Prediction: Soto is better technically everywhere. Unless he struggles to pull the trigger, which has happened before, he should have advantages in each phase. Soto takes a decision.



Tamdan McCrory (14-3; 4-3 UFC) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (17-1; 4-1 UFC)

Talented middleweights meet in one of the best-matched fights on the card. McCrory returned to the UFC after a six-year absence in December, eventually submitting Josh Samman to earn his first victory in the Octagon since 2009. Poland's Jotko has won three in a row in the UFC, defeating Brad Scott in February.

The winner will be in line for a Top 15 or even Top 10 opponent.

The 6'4" McCrory is a dangerous fighter both standing and on the mat. He's a slick and powerful combination puncher with sharp knees in the clinch, an active guard and brutal strikes from top position. Wrestling isn't his strong suit, although he's better than he was in his first UFC run seven years ago.

Jotko is well-rounded and athletic. The southpaw mostly prefers to strike, throwing a sharp straight left and an assortment of rangy kicks. It's nearly impossible to take him down, and while he's not especially powerful, he works at an excellent pace on the feet.

Prediction: This is another close fight. McCrory is a slight favorite, but Jotko is the cleaner range striker and should be able to keep this standing. The Pole takes a decision.



Misha Cirkunov (11-2; 2-0 UFC) vs. Ion Cutelaba (11-1, 1 N/C; 0-0 UFC)

Canada's Cirkunov takes on Moldova's Cutelaba in a strong matchup of light heavyweight prospects. Cirkunov defeated Daniel Jolly and Alex Nicholson in his first two UFC bouts, while Cutelaba debuts after a career spent in Eastern Europe fighting low-level competition.

The southpaw Cirkunov is still a bit stiff as a striker, but he packs real power in his punching combinations and left kick. He's on firmer ground in the clinch, where he shows smooth takedowns and vicious strikes. On top, he moves like a much smaller man, with slick passes, hard strikes and a nose for the submission.

Cutelaba is a bomber with huge power in his hands. He throws winging combinations as he works his way forward and complements that with strong takedowns and good work on top. His takedown defense is questionable, though, and so too is his defensive grappling.

Prediction: This is a straightforward matchup on paper, with Cutelaba holding a substantial advantage in the striking and Cirkunov everywhere else. The latter seems likely to prevail, so the pick is Cirkunov by submission in the first round.



Jason Saggo (11-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Leandro Silva (19-3-1, 1 N/C; 3-2, 1 N/C UFC)

Canada's Saggo meets Brazil's Silva in a solid lightweight fight. Saggo has sandwiched wins over Josh Shockley and Justin Salas around a loss to contender Paul Felder, while Silva hasn't lost since dropping a fight to Francisco Trinaldo in September 2014.

Saggo can do a bit of everything. He's a quality striker with a nice kicking game, but he does his best work as an offensive wrestler and especially on the mat. Silva too likes to kick on the feet and has a strong combination of offensive wrestling and grappling.

Prediction: Neither fighter is particularly good at defending takedowns, and neither throws much volume on the feet. Saggo is more dangerous on the ground, however, and he should find some success if he can get on top. The pick is Saggo by decision.



Valerie Letourneau (8-4; 3-1 UFC) vs. Joanne Calderwood (10-1; 2-1 UFC)

Former strawweight title challenger Letourneau takes on Scotland's Calderwood in the UFC's first women's flyweight contest. A native of Canada, Letourneau won her first three in the UFC before falling short against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in November. Calderwood was a highly touted prospect and has sandwiched wins over Seohee Ham and Cortney Casey around a huge upset loss to Maryna Moroz.

There will be plentiful matchups with the strawweight Top 10 for the winner if she can make it back down to 115 pounds. Alternatively, this might spark the UFC to add a flyweight division.

Letourneau is a striker by trade. She shows off a crisp but inconsistent jab and relies heavily on a potent right hand that she often doubles or triples. The Canadian is particularly sharp with her counters and shows off excellent timing and well-trained triggers for her responses. Letourneau often lets her right leg drift forward after she throws the right and loves to follow with a hard left kick to the body or head.

Pace is a strong suit for Letourneau. She works fast and usually throws more than one shot at a time. Defensively, her command of distance is her strongest suit, but an opponent can touch her up in the pocket.

The clinch is another strong area for the Canadian. She puts her 5'7" frame to good use with serious leverage and a good command of head positioning against the fence. The occasional trip adds some variety. She's an exceptional defender of takedowns, and from top position she controls and lands a few strikes.

Calderwood is likewise mostly a striker. She starts slow and is vulnerable early in the fight, but as she gets her timing and distance, she drops an increasingly rapid output of front and round kicks to set a long distance. The Scot wears her opponent down with a steady stream of shots to the legs and body and tosses in a few long punches for good measure.

Calderwood has little to offer in the pocket and is hittable at punching distance, but she spends little time at that range. Instead, she excels at sliding from kicking distance into the clinch, which is her wheelhouse. Double-collar ties, over-unders and frames all provide avenues for Calderwood to slam home knees to the body and head, and she mixes in elbows and short punches with strong control and muay thai-style sweeps.

Strong takedown defense keeps Calderwood standing, and she can hit both trips in the clinch and decent double-leg takedowns when the mood strikes. She's still a relatively novice grappler, though, and does little more than control and land strikes. If she finds herself on her back, Calderwood is in serious trouble.

Prediction

This is a close fight. Letourneau is more athletic, hits harder and is the more dangerous striker in general, while Calderwood is better in the clinch and at kicking range. Letourneau will probably try for a takedown or two, though it's unlikely she'll get them.

Calderwood will probably eat a number of shots early, but as she adjusts and gets her offense going, she'll outpoint Letourneau at range and in the tie-ups. The pick is Calderwood in a close, back-and-forth decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-2; 3-2 UFC) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-1; 0-1 UFC)

The Ultimate Fighter: Nations finalist Aubin-Mercier tries to get back on track against France's Gouti in a solid lightweight bout. Following his loss to Chad Laprise in the show's final, Quebec's Aubin-Mercier ran off three consecutive wins, looking the part of a blue-chip prospect. Carlos Diego Ferreira put a stop to that streak in January, though.

Gouti debuted on short notice in February against Teemu Packalen and fell to a submission inside 30 seconds.

Aubin-Mercier is the A-side of this matchup, and this is essentially an opportunity for him to rebound in front of the Canadian fans.

Gouti is an aggressive pressure striker. He has crisp and well-trained hands that fire off a steady stream of combinations, usually starting with a sharp jab. Countering in the pocket seems to be a specialty, and he carries real pop in his shots.

The Frenchman seems to be a competent defensive wrestler and a reasonably skilled grappler with some submission knowledge, but there isn't much to go on.

The Canadian is a wrestler and grappler by trade. The judo black belt does his best work in the clinch with a strong array of trips and throws, which he chains together smoothly with singles and doubles against the cage. Aubin-Mercier is technically sound, strong and relentless when he gets in on a shot.

His specialty lies in creating a scramble more than establishing top position. In transitions, Aubin-Mercier excels at letting his opponent move under him and then using the opportunity that follows to get to his opponent's back. The Canadian has a vicious rear-naked choke and a series of effective setups for his back-takes.

Striking is the weakest part of Aubin-Mercier's game. The southpaw is athletic and powerful but stiff. He throws a brutal left kick at all levels and has some pop in his hands, but he rarely moves his head and has a bad habit of throwing the same thing over and over, which allows his opponent to time and counter him. Aubin-Mercier has made improvements in his last several fights, but he has a long way to go.

Prediction

As the biggest favorite on the card, this is Aubin-Mercier's fight to lose. If he gets stuck at punching distance against Gouti, he'll be in trouble, but Aubin-Mercier is the superior wrestler and grappler. There's no reason to think he won't take Gouti down, and on the mat he should control and probably finish the Frenchman. Aubin-Mercier submits Gouti in the second round.




Steve Bosse (11-2; 1-1 UFC) vs. Sean O'Connell (17-7; 2-3 UFC)

Former hockey enforcer Bosse, a native of Canada, takes on the American O'Connell in an excellent matchup of light heavyweight action fighters. Bosse ate a head kick in his UFC debut but knocked out James Te Huna in devastating fashion in March. O'Connell rebounded from losses in his first two UFC outings by defeating Matt van Buren and Anthony Perosh, but he saw that streak come to an end against Ilir Latifi in January.

Neither fighter is in line for a title shot, but both are entertaining and put on fun fights. The winner will get to do that for a while longer.

There's no mystery to Bosse's game: He's a brawler, plain and simple, and one with good athletic tools and big power. He has shown increasing craft in the last few years, however, with a better command of angles, smoother footwork and cleaner triggers on his counters. The overhand right is his bread and butter, and he'll throw it two or even three times in a row.

While he's happiest in the pocket, Bosse is content to be in the clinch. Slashing elbows, strong knees and hard uppercuts make him a handful in the tie-ups. The sample size is limited, but Bosse seems to be a competent defender of takedowns.

O'Connell is an aggressive, come-forward fighter who relies on his pace and durability. He wades into the pocket behind a sharp jab and stinging low kicks, and once at close range he unleashes nonstop punching combinations that carry power. The American never throws one shot at a time, mixing up his shots to the head and body while showcasing tricky timing and rhythm in the pocket.

This sounds risky, and it is, but O'Connell's pressuring style means he's most often exchanging with his opponent's back to the fence. That makes it somewhat less dangerous, though O'Connell still gets hit a lot.

The clinch is a strong secondary area for O'Connell, and he excels at grinding against the fence while mixing in knees and short punches. He's a solid if not outstanding defender of takedowns, and that's the extent of his game.

Prediction

This is a perfectly matched fight. Both fighters love to be in the pocket and the clinch; both are dangerous and love to push the pace. Bosse hits harder on a shot-for-shot basis, but O'Connell works faster, is more durable and has more technical clinch and wrestling games.

This likely comes down to O'Connell's consistent pressure against Bosse's counterpunching, and in that scenario the former seems a little more reliable. The pick is O'Connell by knockout in the second round.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Donald Cerrone (29-7, 1 N/C; 16-4 UFC) vs. Patrick Cote (23-9; 10-9 UFC)

Action fighter extraordinaire Cerrone tries his hand at welterweight for the second time, taking on longtime Canadian veteran Cote in a strong co-main event at 170 pounds.

The American's first UFC title shot ended in only 66 seconds, as lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos finished Cerrone early, but prior to that Cowboy had run up an eight-fight winning streak against the cream of the division. A move up to 170 pounds led to a rebound win, as Cerrone defeated Alex Oliveira on short notice in February.

This will be Cote's seventh fight at welterweight after a long run at 185 pounds. He is riding a three-fight winning streak with victories over Ben Saunders, Josh Burkman and Joe Riggs. His last loss came against contender Stephen Thompson in 2014.

This is essentially a stay-busy fight for Cerrone, who will likely bounce between divisions while looking for fun matchups; wins and loss are no longer important for him. This would be one of the biggest wins of Cote's career, however, and could set up a fight with an elite opponent.

Cerrone can do everything, but he remains a striker by trade. More specifically, he prefers to operate in the center of the cage, sticking his opponent on the end of his rangy kicks.

The American has an established habit of starting slow, moving at range while flicking the occasional front or round kick along with straight punches. He's hittable in the early going and needs some time to get his range and timing.

Once he gets going, however, Cerrone is a monster. He drops a steady stream of punch-kick combinations, stepping in with a punch or two before sliding to an angle to slice his opponent's legs with a crushing low kick. Once his opponent begins to feel the shots to the leg, Cerrone moves his kicks to the body and eventually the head. Stepping knees add another layer of danger for opponents who want to pressure.

That's the core of Cerrone's game. He's vulnerable to aggressive opponents who can push him back to the fence, taking away the space he needs to operate, or who can fight him in the pocket. If allowed to fight at range, in the middle of the cage, Cerrone has few peers.

The rest of Cowboy's game is excellent. Not only is he a strong defensive wrestler, but his front headlock and quick move to the back make it dangerous to shoot on him in open space if he has room to sprawl. He's less able to defend with his back to the cage, though.

Offensively, Cerrone has a nice array of trips in the clinch. He excels at changing levels and hitting reactive takedowns against aggressive opponents, especially the knee tap. On top, he passes smoothly and constantly hunts for the back. Transitions and scrambles are his specialty, and few in MMA are better at finding a submission against a hurt opponent.

Cote is a durable and dangerous veteran with good skills everywhere. He's still mostly a striker with big power in his right hand, but sharp low kicks and an occasional jab complement the overhands and uppercuts he's been known for throughout his career. The Canadian is willing to sit down and exchange in the pocket, where his iron chin and power make him a threat.

Pace isn't Cote's strong suit, and he's far too hittable for comfort, but his craft and experience make him a tricky opponent.

Things don't get much easier in the clinch, where Cote's raw strength combines with solid technique. He loves short uppercuts from the collar tie, throws nasty knees and is happy to grind his opponent against the fence for extended periods of time.

Wrestling was a weak point for Cote, but he has improved in recent years. His takedown defense is spotty, but he has a nice array of trips in the clinch and doubles that he's using more and more.

On the mat, Cote drops bombs from top position and passes smoothly while maintaining a heavy base. He's even dangerous from his back, with an active guard and strong sweeps.


Prediction

This is an interesting matchup. Cerrone has technical edges in every area, but he's giving up a substantial amount of size to the former middleweight. Cote knows how to use that size, particularly in the clinch, and even at 155 pounds Cerrone has had trouble when pressed against the fence.

That's almost certainly the angle Cote will take, attempting to pressure Cerrone while forcing him backward and then grabbing the clinch against the cage to wear the American down. This could work, especially in a three-round fight. The fact Cerrone is hittable and Cote hits like a truck makes the range striking dangerous for the American, too.

On balance, however, the matchup favors Cerrone. He's much faster, throws more volume and is a better technical wrestler. If he can minimize the clinch exchanges and keep this at kicking distance, it's his fight to lose.

The pick is Cerrone by decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Rory MacDonald (18-3; 9-3 UFC) vs. Stephen Thompson (12-1; 7-1 UFC)

Former title contender MacDonald makes his return to action following an epic war with Robbie Lawler at UFC 189 in July. The Canadian is in the final fight of his contract before a potentially lucrative bid for free agency, and a victory would have meaning beyond just getting back on the winning track.

Thompson has come a long way since a one-sided drubbing at the hands of Matt Brown in 2012. The karate practitioner has won six straight, capping that streak with a brutal finish of former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks in February.

The winner will have a great claim for a title shot, particularly if Thompson comes through. For MacDonald, a win would mean a tremendous amount of leverage as a free agent, and he could reset the entire pay scale for elite fighters moving forward.

The phrase "well-rounded" gets thrown around a great deal in MMA, but no fighter embodies that description better than MacDonald. He can strike, wrestle, grapple and fight in the clinch with equal skill, adopting whatever game plan is most suitable and switching fluidly over the course of the fight.

MacDonald puts his 6'0" height and 76" reach to good use on the feet. He boasts one of the trickiest and most punishing jabs in the sport, using it to measure the range, disrupt his opponent's rhythm and re-establish long distance after a combination.

That jab pairs nicely with MacDonald's rangy front kick, round kick and right straight, all of which begin with the same motion of his hips.

The combination of these strikes manipulates his opponent's hand positioning and head movement, creating openings for each. The straight moves the opponent's hand in front of the head, leaving a path for the right high kick. The high kick keeps his opponent's hand up, leaving the body open for the front kick. He loves a question-mark kick, which looks just like a front kick but then curves up and over the shoulder.

MacDonald is happy to stick his opponent at long distance with these four simple strikes, but when he backs his opponent to the fence, he boasts some of the best flurries in MMA. He mixes up hooks and straights to the head and body with jumping knees and elbows, working around, under and through the opponent's guard.

While he can win fights as a pure range striker, MacDonald is even better on the floor. He's an ace defensive wrestler and has a strong array of singles, doubles, trips and throws that he chains together beautifully. Turning caught kicks into takedowns is a particular specialty, and he excels at disguising his level changes and clinch entries with strikes or countering his opponent with takedowns.

The Canadian is an elite grappler on the mat. He survived an entire round on the bottom against Demian Maia, an unmatched feat in the recent past. From top position, he's a monstrous ground striker with technical posture, strong control and a slick passing game. Traditional ground control and mat wrestling blend seamlessly in his approach.

Submissions haven't been a major part of his game in the UFC, but he excels at using leg locks to sweep and initiate scrambles.

If MacDonald has a weak spot, it's defense in the pocket. He relies on distance and a tricky defensive guard to avoid his opponent's strikes, and at close range his lack of head movement is an issue, particularly in exchanges.

Thompson is a striker by trade. The South Carolina native owns a deep background in karate and competitive kickboxing, and that shows in his emphasis on playing the outside game.

He has a variety of tools for establishing and maintaining his preferred range, all of which play together to create a series of dangerous layers for his opponent. Thompson moves seamlessly from orthodox to southpaw and consistently circles through the space of the cage, cutting angles and forcing his opponent to react to shorten the distance.

A steady barrage of side, round and front kicks to the body and head sticks his opponent outside. Thompson throws them quickly and powerfully, with no telegraphing, and excels at sneaking them through and around his opponent's defensive guard.

Once his opponent is a step or two beyond comfort, Thompson's game opens up. He can leap in with blitzing combinations of straight punches, sneaking in a round kick after the onslaught. Alternatively, he can let his opponent come to him, and when that happens Thompson opens up with smooth, technical combinations.

Counters are the most dangerous part of Thompson's game, and he has a series of equally devastating options at his disposal. He can land them from orthodox or southpaw; he can throw them with his feet planted or as he steps back; and he can move in straight lines as he counters or step off to angles.

These different pieces of Thompson's game reinforce one another. The counters make his opponents wary of overcommitting to an attack, which sticks them for longer and longer periods on the outside, where Thompson can chew them up with kicks and blitzing punches.

It's hard to overstate Thompson's timing, understanding of range and overall craft. He's hardly untouchable, but he's one of the best strikers in the sport.

None of this would matter if Thompson didn't have the wrestling chops to keep himself on the feet. The karateka has turned into one of the better defenders of takedowns in the sport, with a quick sprawl and good work against chained attempts with his back to the fence. He wastes no time in separating and re-establishing distance. It's not impossible to take Thompson down, but it's not easy to hold him down either.

The occasional takedown and period of top control adds some variety for Thompson, and his sense of timing and distance helps in that regard.

Where Thompson parts company from many of MMA's karate practitioners is his pace. The South Carolinian works fast, dropping a steady stream of kicks and combinations of punches at a rapid rate. Even if he doesn't land a single devastating strike, Thompson can still win rounds.


Prediction

As the betting odds indicate, this is a close fight. Neither fighter is helpless in the other's wheelhouse, and both are well-coached, tough and experienced against elite competition.

Both fighters prefer to strike at long range, but there's little question that Thompson is more dangerous at that distance. If MacDonald is content to stay in the middle of the cage and trade kicks and punching combinations with Thompson, he's going to lose, and a finish is hardly out of the realm of possibility.

Except to establish that he can't be bullied at that distance, however, MacDonald has no reason to consent to that kind of fight. He's a competent pressure fighter with the footwork and strike selection to cut off his opponent's escape angles and force him toward the fence; the Canadian has done it before, against Tarec Saffiedine and Tyron Woodley, though Thompson is a more difficult challenge.

With his back near the fence, Thompson's advantages disappear, and MacDonald's flurries, clinch game and wrestling all come into play in a major way.

With all of that in mind, the balance of the matchup runs slightly in the Canadian's direction. The pick is MacDonald by close decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

If Cowboy Cerrone gets a submission at UFC Ottawa he'll surpass Nate Diaz & move to 2nd place all-time in Zuffa with 10 sub wins

(Faber-12)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Diggin' Deep on the UFC Fight Night 89: FS2 prelims
By Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow





Jason Saggo (11-2) vs. Leandro Silva (19-3-1), Lightweight

Saggo and Silva have both been treading water in the mid-to-lower levels of the crowded lightweight division. Will a win here get them a definitive step up in competition? I can't say definitively, but chances are pretty good it will.

Saggo offers a bit more promise if avoiding the judges decision counts for anything due to his two first round stoppage finishes sandwiched around a competitive split decision loss to one of Joe Silva's recent favorites Paul Felder. The Canadian entered the UFC with a reputation as a submission specialist but has picked up both of those wins from his fists. Then again, those were both ground and pound stoppages set up from his grappling.

Silva is a bit of an enigma as he has great physical gifts and often displays them only to then utilize a head-scratching strategy and piss away a victory. The Brazilian has been ironing those issues out a bit as he has been able to avoid the losing column in his last four appearances after opening his UFC career with two losses. Despite the success and improvements, it still feels like he has yet to dropp into the extra gear his physical abilities indicate he possesses.

Saggo is actually about as well-rounded as you will find, having traveled all over the world to receive training in all of the various arts. That includes a stint as a professional Muay Thai fighter that belies his reputation as a grappler. His well-roundedness has allowed him to develop a hell of a killer instinct with a nose for the finish. Because his strikes don't particularly have much power behind them, he looks to take the fight to the ground where he can either fish for a submission or pound them out with his underrated ground and pound which is set up by his smooth guard passing.

Saggo regularly maintains a lot of pressure on his opponent as he looks for the takedown any way he can get it. He isn't a powerful wrestler, but he is a relentless one. This should be problematic for Silva whose offense is most effective when he is given plenty of space where he can let his powerful kicks fly. His opponents know this which is why he only has a single KO/TKO, highly contrary to what his actual striking abilities are. Thanks to his opponent's pressure and him trying to maintain space, he often ends up backing up against the fence and throwing a low volume of strikes.

Silva has been able to make up for his low strike total as his wrestling has improved, though it would be a stretch to call it a strength on the offensive end in particular. Stronger in his BJJ skills, Silva has shown a real knack for getting his opponent's back. Like his striking though, he falls into periods of inactivity when on the ground as he is content to look for the submission off of his back rather than looking to get back to his feet. Like his struggles to remain active on the feet, Silva has wasted opportunities on his opponent's back too.

This is an excellent piece of match making by Joe Silva. Saggo is much more aggressive with a clear path to victory while Silva is the more physically gifted fighter despite owning holes in his overall process. Silva has improved his decision making since his UFC inception by far, but I still favor Saggo who looks to be a horrible stylistic matchup for the Brazilian. Silva hasn't been finished in his career which means it will be difficult for the Canadian to do so.


Saggo via decision




Misha Cirkunov (11-2) vs. Ion Cutelaba (11-1), Light Heavyweight

Cirkunov is a rare breed in the UFC as a legit prospect in the light heavyweight division. Looking to continue to develop him rather than throw him into the fire too early and stunt his growth, the UFC is giving him his third debuting opponent in a row.

Some would say that Cirkunov has been lobbed softballs in his first two UFC appearances in Daniel Jolly and Alex Nicholson and there is definitely some truth to that. It's hard to blame the UFC for taking it easy with him as he is still fairly raw and there isn't much young blood at 205 with as much potential as him. Throwing him to the wolves too early could stunt his development.

Cutelaba appears to be the toughest opponent Cirkunov has faced thus far in the UFC as he offers a lot of potential himself in addition to being younger than the 29-year old Cirkunov, making his debut at the tender age of 22. The problem is that he has been a can crusher in Europe so it's hard to get a feel for just how good he is or can be. He's done what he is supposed to do to them as only one of his fights has left the first round and six of his eleven wins coming in under a minute.

The area that Cirkunov is still developing is in his striking which happens to be where Cutelaba is strongest which makes this both a reasonable matchup for the development of Cirkunov as well as a strong possibility for the upset to occur. Cutelaba doesn't bother trying to measure his opponents, finding little use of a jab. Instead he prefers to go for the kill out of the gate with hard hooks that he throws with speed more than accuracy. His power and aggression has overwhelmed his opposition thus far, but there are certainly holes in his defense that could be attacked by a skilled striker.

Fortunately for Cutelaba that doesn't describe Cirkunov. Cirkunov too has a lot of power which means his striking needs to be respected, but he still looks uncomfortable in space with kicks to the legs and body being his most efficient strike when given space. He'd would rather not have that space as he is most comfortable in the clinch with sound dirty boxing while proving very effective at navigating his opponent's strikes in order to close the distance. A black belt in judo, he tends to look for a trip or throw right off the bat though he'll settle for various short strikes if neither of those are available. He's also shown good timing on his level changes too.

What could be the most entertaining part of the fight is the ground war. Cirkunov is a very polished BJJ practitioner with smooth guard passes with a variety of ways to find his opponent's back. Cutelaba can scramble while owning an odd fondness for omoplatas -- both of his career submissions came that way -- which could result in some fun sequences, but he prefers to throw ground strikes if he can't get attain his favorite submission.

Cutelaba has a better chance of developing into a keeper than the majority of the light heavyweight prospects that have come through the UFC doors the last five years. Problem is that he is still very green and Cirkunov is far ahead of him in development. It should be pretty similar to Cirkunov's first two UFC appearances with a ground stoppage in the first half of the 15 minute time limit.


Cirkunov via submission of the first round




Tamden McCrory (14-3) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (17-1), Middleweight

Though a part of the large field of middleweights who struggle to separate themselves from the pack, a win here will likely set up McCrory or Jotko to earn them an opportunity against a ranked opponent.

McCrory is one of the better recent story's as he took a five year hiatus from the sport only to return with a vengeance, scoring stoppages of 21 and 66 seconds upon his return in Bellator. He jumped to the UFC when he couldn't reach an agreement with Bellator and scored an impressive upset finish on Josh Samman. His nerdy demeanor and balding appearance make him a most unlikely badass, but everyone on the roster is aware of what a tough SOB he really is.

Jotko flies under the radar more than McCrory despite his own three-fight win streak, but that is largely his own fault as his style isn't very fan friendly. Regardless of that, his recent success can't be denied he has the physical attributes to continue to move up the ranks as he continues to improve the areas that he is weak in, demonstrating improved distance striking in his last appearance against Brad Scott. That could be attributed to Scott being a less versatile grinder himself, but the improvements on the outside by Jotko are undeniable.

Considering McCrory is one of the rare fighters in the division with a longer reach than Jotko (78" as opposed to 77") while also being a better out-fighter in general, look for Jotko to return to his grinding roots against his lanky opponent. Jotko is a bit of a rarity as a grinder in that he doesn't often look for the takedown, preferring to clinch against the cage and use dirty boxing and knees from there. McCrory has been a sound clinch fighter himself in the past, but that was also when he was fighting against welterweights where he had a significant size advantage. He was taken down by Samman a few times with little resistance while in the clinch which is certainly cause for concern.

Where McCrory excels is as a submission fighter as he is an expert at using the long limbs on his 6'4" frame. While his wrestling is more than questionable, he usually doesn't mind being taken down as he owns one of the most aggressive guards in the sport that opponents need to be wary of entering. Even if he doesn't get the sub he usually ends up getting himself an improved position by initiating a scramble or nailing a sweep which can also lead to him getting back to his feet. Jotko is usually a position based grappler with a preference for ground and pound with periods of inactivity on the ground. Don't be surprised to see him frozen for a good chunk of time due to respect for McCrory's grappling acumen.

It isn't that I don't believe that Jotko deserves the jump in competition that he is getting here. He absolutely does. I just think McCrory is too big of a jump for him. Jotko needs to grind out MCcrory in order to pick up the win and there are simply too many ways for McCrory to end the fight for me to feel comfortable picking the Pole. The greatest mystery in my mind is how McCrory wins as opposed to who wins.


McCrory via submission of the second round




Chris Beal (10-2) vs. Joe Soto (15-5), Bantamweight

No way in hell the loser of this contest avoids the chopping block as Beal has dropped his last two while Soto is swinging 0-for-3 in his UFC stint. At least these two usually put on a good show...

Beal is returning to the bantamweight division after finding no success at flyweight. Though many initially thought flyweight would be a good fit for him, he didn't fight with as much energy. It appears the weight cut took a lot of the oomph off of his punches in addition to being noticeably slower than the opposition at 125. He wasn't glacially slow, but the difference was visible and negated any size advantage he had.

It appears Soto exhausted all of his luck upon his UFC debut when he walked into a title shot against TJ Dillashaw on short notice thanks to Renan Barao's botched weight cut just days before Barao's and Dillashaw's scheduled rematch. Since lasting into the fifth round against the then-champion, Soto has been quickly starched by Anthony Birchak and dropped a controversial decision to Michinori Tanaka. It seems as though the UFC is giving him one last shot as a reward for his game performance upon his debut. I can't imagine him staying on the roster if he drops to 0-4.

Beal and Soto have very similar games with a boxing-heavy style while mixing in the occasional takedown... at least that is how it is on paper. Beal is very flat-footed while throwing simple one-two combinations, usually waiting for his opponent to come at him. When he does move forward he flicks out a jab accentuated by his 69" reach, which will be a full 4 inches longer than Soto's reach. Soto is much more active on his feet, bouncing in and out of range while working in a nice mix of leg kicks and more diverse boxing combos than Beal. Beal has the power advantage and has shown a tendency to go for the occasional high-risk maneuver (see his flying knee on Patrick Williams), but Soto's overall movement makes him a harder target to hit.

The difference in their ground games is a much more stark contrast than that on the feet. Beal hasn't known what to do with his opponent once he gets them on the ground recently, but that has also coincided with his move down to flyweight. He had powerful ground strikes when he previously fought at bantamweight as well as a knack for getting the back. If he returns to that form he'll stand a chance of being competitive with Soto who is extremely active off of his back and at times too comfortable. He lost his fight with Tanaka due to Tanaka's top control with the two of the three judges overlooking Soto's submission attempts. Beal doesn't have the grappling acumen Tanaka possesses, so if Soto can catch him much the way he was able to catch Tanaka, we're more likely to see a tap as opposed to an escape.

This should be a hell of a curtain jerker for FS2 as it doesn't have a clear favorite. Soto has more savvy than Beal in addition to a deeper toolbox which is why I'm favoring him slightly. Beal could get a KO, but I see Soto's aforementioned savvy making that doubtful and he could even nab a submission. Otherwise his ground abilities should be the difference in earning his the judge's nod.


Soto via decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Over/Under Totals for UFC Fight Night 89
from MMA Odds Breaker



Middleweight bout: Elias Theodorou (-300) vs Sam Alvey (+220)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Alvey asked for this match-up during his post-fight speech after knocking out Dan Kelly. UFC matchmakers did not immediately oblige, as both fighters went on to lose in their next bouts. Now with both of them seeing their recent win streaks snapped, they look to get back into the win column and Joe Silva felt it was the appropriate time to pit them against each other inside the Octagon. I know many are high on the TUF: Nations winner Theodorou in this contest, and I personally lean towards him too, but I do not see any value in him whatsoever at his current offering price of -300. At these odds, I do think this is a “dog or pass” situation as far as a straight play is concerned, and I am ultimately going to opt to pass on a play on the dog. Regardless of the outcome, I think this 185-pound contest hits the judges’ scorecards more often than not, and my best guess is that Theodorou either edges it out by outlanding in volume on the feet or outgrappling Alvey.

Gabe’s Call: Theodorou by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-200) 2u to win 1u



Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-300) vs Jonathan Meunier (+220)

Gabe’s Thoughts: When this match-up was initially announced after Meunier stepped in on short notice for his injured team-mate Alex Garcia, I thought Covington was going to be a key parlay piece for me against the promotional newcomer. However, after further looking into the fight, I am not as confident. In fact, at the current odds, I see this fight as a “dog or pass” situation, but I am ultimately going to pass on making a play on the dog and rather take the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +145. I think Meunier stands a fair chance of catching and finishing Covington, and should Covington get his hand raised, I think there’s a good chance it will either be a result of submission or ground and pound TKO. Initially, I thought this was going to be Covington 30-27 via wrestling grind and it could still play out that way, but after looking into the fight, I do favor a finish.

Gabe’s Call: Covington by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:02 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+145) 1u to win 1.45u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Pair of Parlays for UFC Fight Night 89
from MMA Odds Breaker



Lightweight bout: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-400) vs Thibault Gouti (+325)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Aubin-Mercier has a massive edge in grappling headed into this 155-pound contest and I see him using it to take the fight to the mat, where he will then take Gouti’s back and eventually sink in a rear naked choke to earn the tap. Gouti’s Octagon debut in his last outing against Teamu Packalen had the same result and Aubin-Mercier is a much better grappler than Packalen and is more effecient in taking the backs of his opponents. If Gouti is to stand a chance at getting his hand raised in this match-up, he needs to be able to keep the fight standing and I don’t think he will find success in doing so. I expect the French-Canadian to make quick work of the Italian and return to the win column in impressive fashion, following a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira in his most recent outing inside the Octagon.

Gabe’s Call: Aubin-Mercier by Submission (rear naked choke, 2:07 round 1)



Women’s Strawweight bout: Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (+165) vs Randa Markos (-185)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Markos is coming off a sour unanimous decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz and aims to return to the win column in impressive fashion. I expect to see the best Randa Marko we have yet to see thus far inside of the Octagon. I see her using her superior grappling to outwrestle and smother Jones-Lybarger from bell to bell for 15-minutes of action to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I would not be surprised to see improved cardio from her and see her take control of the third round as well, considering she has been known to fade in the third round of her bouts.

Gabe’s Call: Markos by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)




Gabe’s Recommended Parlays: 1) Aubin-Mercier (-400) and Markos (-185) at -109 for 3.95u to win 3.65u and 2) Aubin-Mercier/Gouti Under 2.5 rounds (-145) and Jones-Lybarger/Markos Over 2.5 rounds (-325) at +120 for 2.15u to win 2.6u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Jon Anik and Kenny Florian will be on the call for tomorrow’s UFC Ottawa.


Studio analysts will be Brian Stann and Rashad Evans

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MMA Junkie Staff Picks



Ben Fowlkes - 2016 picks: 55-27

MacDonald
Cerrone
OConnell
Aubin-Mercier
Letourneau


Steven Marrocco - 2016 picks: 53-29

Thompson
Cerrone
O’Connell
Aubin-Mercier
Letourneau



Dann Stupp - 2016 picks: 51-31

MacDonald
Cerrone
Bosse
Aubin-Mercier
Letourneau


Brent Brookhouse - 2016 picks: 51-31

MacDonald
Cerrone
Bosse
Aubin-Mercier
Calderwood


Brian Garcia - 2016 picks: 50-32 MacDonald

MacDonald
Cerrone
O’Connell
Aubin-Mercier
Letourneau


Matt Erickson - 2016 picks: 50-32

Thompson
Cerrone
O’Connell
Aubin-Mercier
Calderwood


John Morgan - 2016 picks: 49-33

Thompson
Cerrone
O’Connell
Aubin-Mercier
Calderwood


Mike Bohn - 2016 picks: 49-33

MacDonald
Cerrone
Bosse
Aubin-Mercier
Letourneau


George Garcia - 2016 picks: 44-40

MacDonald
Cote
O’Connell
Aubin-Mercier
Letourneau

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 89 Staff Predictions from Bleacher Report




Valerie Letourneau vs. Joanne Calderwood

Nathan McCarter

I might side with Calderwood if this fight were at 115 pounds, but remember that this is a special flyweight encounter. Also, this event will have the early weigh-ins that we saw at UFC 199. That will benefit Letourneau immensely.

Letourneau, unanimous decision



Scott Harris

It will be interesting to see what Calderwood brings to the table at 125 pounds, and since moving her camp to the Tristar Gym. She's been unable to put it all together to this point, and I'm going to assume that will be the case until further notice. A scrappy Letourneau will put the screws to the Scotswoman.

Letourneau, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

Calderwood's bread and butter is clinch striking, and Letourneau's bread and butter is clinch grappling. Jojo will probably have her back to the cage for the majority of the fight, and that will prove to be the difference.

Letourneau, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

Nathan raises a good point about how the classification of this fight might impact the action. Add in that Letourneau has simply looked like a better fighter of late, and she's the pick for me.

Letourneau, unanimous decision



Sydnie Jones

Letourneau, submission, Rd. 2



Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Thibault Gouti

Nathan McCarter

I don't mean to totally discount Gouti here, but this matchup reeks of home cooking. Aubin-Mercier has to come away with a finish. It will be one-sided and end with a submission as soon as Aubin-Mercier finds the opening.

Aubin-Mercier, submission, Rd. 2



Scott Harris

Gouti is here as a balance to an equation. Aubin-Mercier should coast in this one, thanks in large part to his wrestling and grappling.

Aubin-Mercier, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

The UFC wants Olivier Aubin-Mercier to succeed, and this kind of matchup helps that cause.

Aubin-Mercier, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

There's no two ways of looking at it—Aubin-Mercier's loss to Carlos Ferreira was disappointing, and it raises questions about his upside. Gouti, however, simply isn't on the same level.

Aubin-Mercier, submission, Rd. 1



Sydnie Jones

Aubin-Mercier, unanimous decision



Steve Bosse vs. Sean O'Connell

Nathan McCarter

O'Connell isn't a great fighter, but he is better than Bosse. He just has to avoid being on the receiving end of one of the haymakers Bosse will throw. He will, and he'll be able to put Bosse on the mat in the first round. It'll finish shortly thereafter.

O'Connell, submission, Rd. 1



Scott Harris

O'Connell is the mixed martial artist here, while Bosse is the brawler. He'll have a brawler's chance, but I don't see that chance occurring.

O'Connell, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

Bosse isn't exactly championship material...but O'Connell got knocked out by Ryan Jimmo. He has what it takes to get the win.

Bosse, TKO, Rd. 2



Craig Amos

Bosse is a limited fighter, but, man, he has power. O'Connell has the unfortunate habit of being hit when he fights, and that just isn't going to fly this Saturday night. Even though O'Connell has more weapons, this is a troubling matchup for him.

Bosse, knockout, Rd. 1



Sydnie Jones

Bosse, TKO, Rd. 1



Donald Cerrone vs. Patrick Cote

Nathan McCarter

For my money, this is the most difficult fight to pick on the card. Cerrone looked great earlier this year at 170, but Cote isn't Alex Oliveira. I think this is the fight that sends Cerrone back to lightweight. Cote's strength and power will be too much for Cerrone to overcome. Cote attacks the body and works him over on the cage in the final two rounds.

Cote, unanimous decision



Scott Harris

There's a significant size difference between Cerrone, who moved up from lightweight, and Cote, who started his career at light heavyweight. I'm sorely tempted to pick Cote because of that—and because he has the clinch game to grind this out—but I think he'll be pulled into a slugfest and Cerrone will chop him down.

Cerrone, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

Cote isn't as sexy a name as Cerrone, but he's a crafty veteran that's good at range and in the clinch. Add to that a massive size advantage, and you have an upset on your hands.

Cote, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

Cote might be fighting at the highest level of his career right now, but a supremely talented opponent like Cerrone marks a difficult task. The Canadian will have trouble matching Cerrone's speed, while his wrestling will only lead to a dead end on the ground.

Cerrone, submission, Rd. 2



Sydnie Jones

Cerrone, knockout, Rd. 3



Rory MacDonald vs. Stephen Thompson

Nathan McCarter

Thompson enters riding high, but I'll take the Canadian here. The time away from the cage will revitalize him, and Thompson's style isn't the kind that will outright give him big problems. He doesn't pressure the way a Robbie Lawler does. It'll allow MacDonald time to assess and act. After wearing on Thompson, MacDonald submits him in the third.

MacDonald, submission, Rd. 3



Scott Harris

Granted, this is boiled down, but Rory is too complete a fighter for Thompson. MacDonald will find a way to get inside and get takedowns, and it's his world from there.

MacDonald, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

Thompson's an amazing fighter and could easily take this fight, but MacDonald has only lost via sustained brutality. Unless Thompson can sneak a kick in and get a clean knockout, MacDonald should be able to work him over in the clinch en route to a decision win.

MacDonald, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

Most people consider MacDonald to be one of the best welterweights on the planet, but he has come painfully close to being much more than that. Of three career losses, two came when he was less than one round away from winning a decision. The other was a split decision. While Thompson is a real threat to hand MacDonald his fourth defeat, MacDonald will keep the karate stylist from settling in and eventually finish him on the canvas.

MacDonald, TKO, Rd. 4



Sydnie Jones

MacDonald, TKO, Rd. 2

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fun Fact ...

Steve Bosse and Sean O'Connell have seven combined UFC appearances.

Win or lose, 6 of those ended in a KO

 

[MattyMatt]

Fun Fact ...

Steve Bosse and Sean O'Connell have seven combined UFC appearances.

Win or lose, 6 of those ended in a KO

Sounds like fun!

really excited for this card tomorrow night...

 

[NewYorkKnight]

should be a good one ... good luck brother !