The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 86: Dos Santos vs. Rothwell
By Patrick Wyman - MMA Senior Analyst - Bleacher Report
Fight Pass Prelims
Middleweights
Alessio di Chirico (9-0; 0-0 UFC) vs. Bojan Velickovic (13-3; 0-0 UFC)
Italy's Di Chirico becomes the second fighter from his country to fight in the UFC as he takes on Serbia's Velickovic in the event's curtain-jerker. Velickovic previously held the Resurrection Fighting Alliance welterweight title and trains in the United States, while Di Chirico is a veteran of the Italian and Polish circuits.
The Italian is big, strong and physical, but his skills are fairly limited. Everything he throws at range is a single strike, though he packs some power, and he relies heavily on a single-leg takedown and decent top game. Velickovic is well-rounded, with a solid but low-output southpaw kickboxing game, better offensive than defensive wrestling and a smooth, dangerous grappling arsenal of sweeps and submissions.
Prediction: Velickovic has a great deal more depth of skill, and that should be the difference here. The Serbian submits Di Chirico in the third round.
Heavyweights
Jared Cannonier (7-1; 0-1 UFC) vs. Cyril Asker (7-1; 0-0 UFC)
America's Cannonier meets France's Asker in a solid heavyweight bout. Cannonier debuted against Shawn Jordan 15 months ago and suffered a first-round knockout loss, while Asker has mostly fought in South Africa.
Cannonier has professional boxing experience, and it shows in his smooth jab, crisp footwork and potent, technically sound right hand. Asker too has some experience throwing hands in the ring, but he relies more on a solid wrestling game and strong top control.
Prediction: The American is faster and more sound on the feet. He knocks out Asker in the first round.
Featherweights
Rob Whiteford (12-3; 2-2 UFC) vs. Lucas Martins (15-3; 3-3 UFC)
Brazilian striker Martins takes on Scottish judoka Whiteford in an excellent featherweight matchup. Martins has dropped two in a row, losing a decision to Darren Elkins before a first-round knockout loss at the hands of blue-chip prospect Mirsad Bektic. Elkins snapped Whiteford's two-fight winning streak last October.
Martins is a smooth, offensively focused striker with big power in his hands, though he isn't hard to hit and has a bad habit of brawling. Strong takedown defense generally keeps him standing. Whiteford has a well-timed and powerful counterpunching arsenal from his southpaw stance and a technical clinch game, but he's limited on the feet and has questionable defensive wrestling skills.
Prediction: If the Brazilian can keep this standing, he should handle Whiteford. He's the more technically skilled striker and works at a much-better pace. Martins knocks him out in the second round.
Fox Sports 1 Prelims
Bantamweights
Filip Pejic (10-1-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Damian Stasiak (8-3; 0-1 UFC)
Croatia's Pejic makes his UFC debut against Poland's Stasiak to open the Fox Sports 1 portion of the broadcast. Stasiak's first appearance in the promotion was a decision loss to Yaotzin Meza last April.
The Pole boasts an intriguing mixture of competition karate and jiu-jitsu along with decent wrestling skills, but he offers little from his back and doesn't defend takedowns particularly well. Pejic is a rangy (5'11"), athletic and dangerous striker with big power in his hands and defensive wrestling that has steadily improved. He excels at sneaking in shots on the counter and in transition.
Prediction: Pejic is a slight underdog, but his size, surprising speed and killer instinct make him a potentially special fighter with more seasoning. He knocks out Stasiak in the second round.
Lightweights
Mairbek Taisumov (24-5; 4-1 UFC) vs. Damir Hadzovic (10-2; 0-0 UFC)
Chechyna's Taisumov takes on Bosnia's Hadzovic in a lightweight barnburner. The Chechen has won three in a row, all of them inside the distance, since his lone UFC loss. He's ready for a Top 15 opponent, which makes for a strange pairing with the debuting Hadzovic—a talented veteran of Europe's biggest promotions.
Taisumov is a diverse and talented fighter with great athleticism, speed and power. He puts together smooth combinations on the feet and packs brutal force in his counterpunches and round kicks, while mixing in the occasional spinning kick for good measure. Strong wrestling complements his lethal striking repertoire, and on top he packs vicious power in his ground strikes.
Hadzovic is mostly a striker. He starts a bit slow, but once he finds his rhythm, a crisp jab and vicious round kicks come early and often. The clinch is his strongest suit, and he excels at punching his way inside and then firing off sharp knees and elbows. His takedown defense has been solid, but it has yet to be tested by an expert wrestler.
Prediction: The Chechen has big edges in athleticism, speed and experience, but given Hadzovic's preference to strike and his durability, this should be fun. Taisumov takes a competitive—but clear—decision.
Bantamweights
Ian Entwistle (9-2; 1-1 UFC) vs. Alejandro Perez (16-6; 2-1 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America winner Perez returns to action against the United Kingdom's Entwistle. Perez has seen mixed results in his UFC career, submitting to the unheralded Patrick Williams after winning the show but then rebounding with a nice win over Scott Jorgensen.
Entwistle has split his two outings, dropping his debut to Daniel Hooker before submitting Anthony Birchak.
Perez is a skilled kickboxer with nice punching combinations and potent kicks, especially to the legs. He defends takedowns fairly well and is generally sound on the mat. Entwistle is a leg-lock specialist, and that's basically the extent of his game.
Prediction: This fight revolves around whether Entwistle can get it to the ground or not. If he can, he probably submits Perez, and if not he'll get chewed up on the feet. Entwistle finds the submission in the first round.
Welterweights
Nicolas Dalby (14-0-1; 1-0-1 UFC) vs. Zak Cummings (18-4; 3-1 UFC)
Denmark's Dalby takes on the American Cummings in a fun welterweight matchup. Dalby won an entertaining UFC debut and then drew with Darren Till in the Fight of the Night last October in Dublin. Cummings, a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter 17, rebounded from a loss to Gunnar Nelson by knocking out Dominique Steele last July.
Striking is in Dalby's wheelhouse. A karate practitioner, he combines constant movement with a high-volume attack of punching combinations and kicks that wears his opponent down over the course of the fight. The clinch is a strong backup, and Dalby can do real damage with knees in tight. Well-timed takedowns add another dimension, and he defends his opponents' shots with skill.
Cummings is well-rounded and enormous for the division. The southpaw has some power in his hands, but he tends to work slowly on the feet. The real strength of his skills lies in his takedowns, top game and submission repertoire.
Prediction: The American is a diverse veteran, but unless he can get this fight to the ground, Dalby is going to chew him up with volume on the feet. The Dane takes a decision.
Strawweights
Maryna Moroz (6-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Cristina Stanciu (5-0; 0-0 UFC)
Ukraine's Moroz returns to action against the debuting Stanciu, a native of Romania. Moroz debuted with a shocking upset win over contender Joanne Calderwood, but was upset herself by Valerie Letourneau last August. Stanciu has only been fighting professionally for 18 months, and has yet to face elite competition.
Moroz is a technically sound striker with a deep background in boxing. She works behind a punishing jab and fires off a steady diet of smooth, powerful punching combinations. Hair triggers on her counters make her dangerous in the pocket, and she will bury her opponent in volume if her opponent consents to engage her on the feet. Her footwork is crisp and technical, and it always keeps her close enough to her opponent to throw.
Despite her skill, Moroz isn't perfect on the feet. Her kicks are easy to counter, she's not a great defensive fighter and her pace guarantees she'll be hit quite a bit.
The biggest problem, however, is that she's predictable with her combinations. That's a common characteristic of Eastern European boxers, but it's especially clear with Moroz, who has been trained to throw rote sequences of punches based on particular triggers rather than organically reading her opponent as the fight goes on.
Wrestling is the weakest facet of Moroz's game. She has no real takedowns to speak of, and defensively she's limited to a basic sprawl. Her pathologically aggressive guard partially makes up for that, and she's especially lethal with her armbar. She doesn't have much to offer in extended grappling sequences, though.
Stanciu is inexperienced but promising. She's mostly a striker, and she has her good and bad points on the feet. On the plus side, Stanciu has big power in her hands and puts together slick combinations of punches and kicks. She keeps her head moving and has a nice sense for angles and counters.
On the down side, she's wild and has a bad habit of throwing wide, looping punches when she thinks her opponent is hurt. Despite her head movement, Stanciu isn't hard to hit, and she has a bad habit of throwing caution to the wind and jumping head-first into firefights.
On the mat, Stanciu is aggressive and has a good nose for finding submissions and dominant positions in transition. It's hard to say given the limited film, but she doesn't seem like a particularly accomplished wrestler.
Prediction
Those betting odds seem approximately correct, but regardless of who wins, this is going to be a barnburner. Both fighters like to engage in quick-paced striking matchups and have a preference for throwing hands in the pocket, so it should be a battle of Moroz's more efficient and technically sound boxing against Stanciu's power and physicality. Moroz takes a close decision.
Light Heavyweights
Igor Pokrajac (28-12, 1 N/C; 4-7, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Jan Blachowicz (18-5; 1-2 UFC)
Light heavyweights in desperate need of a win meet in the main card's second bout. Croatia's Pokrajac finished his first stint in the UFC with four losses and a no-contest and followed that up with a three-fight winning streak on the regional scene. Poland's Blachowicz has lost two in a row since a promising debut, dropping decisions to Jimi Manuwa and Corey Anderson.
With only four wins in 12 UFC appearances, it's hard to imagine the UFC keeping Pokrajac around if he loses here, and Blachowicz too is on thin ice.
The Pole is mostly a striker. He is technically sound and packs real power in all of his strikes, which he tends to throw as single punches and kicks from both stances. His left kick to the body is particularly lethal, and he can operate both moving forward and on the counter.
The clinch is another strong suit. Sharp knees and strong control that plays off his size and strength make him a handful on the inside, and he wrestles well both offensively and defensively. He does good work from top position, with smooth passes, strong control and a mixture of hard ground strikes and submissions.
The problem with all of this is pace and output. Almost everything Blachowicz throws is a single shot, and he rarely throws more than eight or 10 strikes in a minute.
He's devastating and fairly accurate, but that's just not enough volume to consistently win decisions. The reason for this lack of output is cardio: Blachowicz can't fight even at that slow pace for more than eight or 10 minutes without gassing.
Pokrajac is an aggressive and dangerous fighter. He generally throws bombs as he works his way forward, though he has shown more signs of calm and patience in his last several fights. Power in both hands makes him dangerous, but he's hittable and not terribly diverse.
The Croat's real area of strength is the clinch. He's strong and uses underhooks for stifling control against the fence, where he lands good short punches and knees. Wrestling, both offensive and defensive, is a weak point. He can hit the occasional submission on the ground and throws good ground strikes from the top, but he's limited on the mat.
Prediction
As the betting odds indicate, this matchup favors Blachowciz. He's the more technical clinch fighter, where much of the fight is likely to take place, and Pokrajac doesn't throw the kind of volume to trouble Blachowicz at range. The Pole finishes with strikes in the first round.
Heavyweights
Timothy Johnson (9-2; 1-1 UFC) vs. Marcin Tybura (13-1; 0-0 UFC)
American wrestler Johnson "welcomes" Polish blue-chip prospect Tybura to the Octagon. Johnson has split a pair of fights in the UFC, defeating Shamil Abdurakhimov before losing a close fight to Jared Rosholt. Tybura was the M-1 heavyweight champion and defeated a who's who of high-level regional talent in Europe before coming to the UFC.
The Pole is a skilled and well-rounded fighter. Nobody will confuse him with a pro kickboxer on the feet, but he throws crisp kicks and hard punches. For the most part, those strikes serve to disguise Tybura's clinch entries and level changes. He's not the most overpowering wrestler, relying heavily on grinding chains of trips and single-leg takedowns, but he's relentless and fairly technical.
Grappling is in Tybura's wheelhouse. He's a monster on top, with a heavy base, stifling control, stiff ground strikes and a diverse array of passes and submissions. Getting to the back is his specialty, though he's more of a steady process type of fighter than a transitional wizard.
Johnson was a Division II All-American at Minnesota State, and wrestling remains the vast majority of his in-cage game. The southpaw is enormous and routinely comes in at the 265-pound limit. His emphasis on the clinch puts his size to good use, and he utilizes a mixture of control against the fence and short punches and knees. The occasional takedown adds some variety, and he can do serious damage from the top.
A decent southpaw striking game gives Johnson some options on the feet as well, but he doesn't throw much volume.
Prediction
It's easy to see how Johnson could stuff Tybura's takedowns and grind him out in the clinch, and that may well happen here. Still, Tybura's relentlessness, cardio and functional striking skills should get the job done, while if the fight hits the mat, he can finish with a submission. Tybura finishes Johnson in the third round.
Heavyweights
Curtis Blaydes (5-0; 0-0 UFC) vs. Francis Ngannou (6-1; 1-0 UFC)
Promising heavyweight prospects meet in an excellent matchup. France's Ngannou debuted in the UFC with a knockout win over Luis Henrique in December, while the American Blaydes, an accomplished wrestler, will be making his first appearance in the promotion.
Ngannou is an outstanding athlete. He's 6'4", boasts a stunning 83" reach and combines his frame with surprising quickness and vicious power. Skill-wise, he's a striker by preference, and he has some technical skill. A crisp jab and slick punch-kick combinations are his bread and butter. Good instincts and timing on the counter make it dangerous to pressure.
That's essentially the extent of Ngannou's game at this point. He isn't a great wrestler, though he can stuff telegraphed shots, and while he has a basic idea of how to scramble back to his feet, he offers nothing from his back and can be controlled.
Blaydes was a national junior-college wrestling champion. He's more experienced than his 5-0 professional record suggests, as the 25-year-old also had 10 amateur fights before turning pro. At 6'4" and an in-shape 265 pounds, he has outstanding size for the division to go along with excellent speed and power.
That wrestling base is still the foundation of his game. He shoots an effortless double, finishes with authority and puts together technical chains. Suplexes and big slams add a powerful and crowd-pleasing dimension to a technically sound arsenal.
Blaydes' mat wrestling is also excellent. He excels at doing damage from the ride and is happy to let his opponent move under him, using all his 265 pounds to good effect. Traditional top control is less his forte, but he's fine there as well.
The former wrestler is still a work in progress on the feet, but he's promising there. A long jab and powerful right hand form the basis of his game, and he mixes in crushing low kicks. It's clear he's still a novice, however, through the rote combinations he throws and his limited skill depth.
Prediction
While Ngannou is a slight favorite, Blaydes should take this. Wrestling is the weakest part of Ngannou's game, and unless he has made serious improvements in the last four months, he'll spend the fight working from his back. Blaydes takes a decision.
Heavyweights
Derrick Lewis (14-4, 1 N/C; 5-2 UFC) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (17-10; 12-9 UFC)
Longtime UFC staple Gonzaga meets the rising Lewis in an excellent heavyweight matchup. The American Lewis has finished each of his 14 victories, most recently Damian Grabowski and Viktor Pesta. Gonzaga rebounded from a three-fight losing streak by taking a decision from Konstantin Erokhin in December.
In the thin heavyweight division, the winner will be no more than two more victories away from a title shot, though Gonzaga is essentially a gatekeeper at this point. At 31, Lewis is a spring chicken by the standards of his aging colleagues. If he wins, Lewis will have an inside track to a matchup with a top-10 opponent.
Gonzaga is limited but effective. His pared-down game has no nonsense and nothing flashy about it, especially on the feet. All of his strikes carry serious power, and he mixes hard low kicks with one or two forward-moving punches at a time. He can hit the occasional counter shot and moves reasonably well.
Defense is a real problem, however, and Gonzaga has a tendency to eat flush shots right on the chin. Cardio isn't his strong suit, either; he tends to finish early or be finished himself.
What the Brazilian doesn't do well is mix his skill sets. He rarely sets up his level changes or clinch entries with strikes, which leaves him shooting from too far away and open to counters as he comes in. Once he's in on the hips or locked up with his opponent, Gonzaga is a technical wrestler, but getting there is the problem. He has rarely been taken down, but that's more a function of his opponents rarely shooting than slick skills.
Grappling is Gonzaga's wheelhouse, especially on top. His base is heavy, and he passes smoothly, with a strong repertoire of ground strikes and a knack for getting to the back. Finding chokes in transition is another specialty.
Lewis' game revolves around his incredible physicality, but that doesn't mean he lacks technical craft, just that his skills are well-suited to maximize his ridiculous size, strength, power and speed.
The American rarely looks to spend much time at range, and he tends to work at a slow pace as he circles and looks to explode forward into one or two punches. While those shots carry real power, they serve mostly to disguise his level changes and especially his clinch entries.
Lewis excels in the tie-ups and has a surprisingly slick series of trips from over-under and the body lock. He controls nicely against the fence and has serious power in his short punches and knees.
From top position, Lewis is a monster. His ground strikes are some of the most powerful in the sport, and he can generate fight-ending power in tiny spaces. A heavy base gives him strong control, and while submissions aren't his best suit, it's nearly impossible to get back up once he gets on top.
On the downside, Lewis' takedown defense isn't great, and he particularly struggles with gauging the distance from which his opponents can shoot in on his hips. It has improved, but he still relies heavily on his ability to scramble when his opponent plants him on the mat. This leaves him vulnerable in transition. Additionally, Lewis isn't exactly hard to hit, and his tendency to fight in close quarters reinforces this.
Prediction
Both fighters' paths to victory are clear. Gonzaga can knock Lewis out on the feet, but would be better served to work takedowns and his imposing top game, where the American has few answers. Lewis can knock out Gonzaga in the clinch or, more likely, from top position; despite his extensive grappling credentials, Gonzaga isn't a serious threat from his back.
The latter scenario seems more likely. The American is bigger, stronger, younger and less shopworn, and Gonzaga isn't an ace wrestler. The difference here should be cardio: Despite his enormous size, Lewis is hard to wear down, while Gonzaga is not, to say the least. Lewis overcomes some early adversity and knocks out a tired Gonzaga late in the second round.
Heavyweights
Junior Dos Santos (17-4; 11-3 UFC) vs. Ben Rothwell (36-9; 6-3 UFC)
This is a matchup of two fighters at the crossroads of their careers. Former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos is only 32, a spring chicken by the standards of the geriatric division, but he suffered a devastating knockout loss to Alistair Overeem last December and a pair of five-round beatings at the hands of Cain Velasquez before that. Physically, he just might not be the same fighter anymore.
Conversely, the 34-year-old Rothwell has reached an unlikely peak. He has won four in a row since a submission loss to Gabriel Gonzaga three years ago, finishing Brandon Vera, Alistair Overeem, Matt Mitrione and Josh Barnett inside the distance. The Wisconsinite has never looked better, and stands on the cusp of an unexpected title shot.
If Rothwell wins, it will be difficult to deny him his chance at the belt. For Dos Santos, a win here would erase the bad taste of that knockout loss to Overeem and reaffirm his position as a top heavyweight.
The Brazilian is fundamentally the same fighter he has been for years: an offensively focused striker who relies mostly on his hands. Crushing power and ridiculous hand speed are his calling cards, and for years they have been enough to keep him at the top of the division.
Dos Santos is fundamentally a straight-line fighter. His quickness allows him to get in and out behind a razor-sharp jab and vicious straight right he mixes up to the body and head, and when he finds a rhythm the former champion is devastating. His flurries against hurt opponents are legendary, and his killer instinct is off the charts.
He has a terrible habit of exiting on the same angle he entered on, however, and his speed isn't enough to stop opponents from catching him as he backs straight up. It might sound strange to say this about a former champion and a successful striker, but Dos Santos' footwork is fundamentally not very good.
That tendency to get in and out on straight lines is one piece of the problem, and he backs straight up against the cage when pressured. With his back to the fence, the former champion is terribly hittable.
When trying to pressure in his own right, it doesn't take genius-level movement to stay away from him.
To look his best, Dos Santos needs his opponent to agree to his kind of fight: a back-and-forth striking matchup in the center of the cage where his superior speed and power can be the telling factor, but without exposing his flawed footwork and understanding of the space of the cage.
Over the years, the Brazilian has added more tools to his game—round kicks, spinning kicks, elbows and trips in the clinch—without fixing the fundamental issues of footwork that ail him.
The rest of Dos Santos' game is perfectly competent. He has outstanding takedown defense both in open space and against the fence, though he's hittable in transitions, and can work the occasional trip or double-leg of his own for the sake of variety. Defensive grappling is a strong suit, and he puts in good work on top when the mood strikes.
Like Dos Santos, Rothwell is mostly a striker, though of a drastically different kind. The former kickboxer has developed an awkward and unique style that suits his enormous frame, absurd durability, big power and surprising craft nicely.
The Wisconsin native has unorthodox but effective footwork. He likes to move forward, alternating between orthodox, southpaw and an almost square stance to give himself options for short cage-cutting steps. His outstretched arms distract his opponent from the footwork and disguise the crushing low kicks he regularly throws. Those round kicks help to cut off the cage, and push kicks force the opponent backward.
As he pressures, Rothwell picks his spots to commit to combinations of three or four punches. He leads with both hands, and his strange hand-positioning makes it hard to see his shots coming. Countering and leading are both possibilities as well, and all of his shots carry enormous force.
Rothwell is perfectly happy to dive into the clinch. His strength and rangy frame make him a monster in close quarters, where he throws sharp knees and potent short punches. It was impossible even for elite clinch fighters like Overeem and Barnett to keep him in the clinch when he didn't want to be there, which speaks to his skill in that phase.
Takedown defense hasn't historically been Rothwell's strength. He's competent but not outstanding, and skilled wrestlers have had little trouble getting him to the mat. The Wisconsinite rarely hits takedowns of his own.
Transitional grappling is both Rothwell's strength and weakness. He sometimes gives up his neck as he tries to scramble, but conversely he has an outstanding choke game of his own in that same phase. Several opponents have succumbed to his guillotine in the recent past.
Prediction
This is essentially an even-money fight. Dos Santos is faster and more athletic, and if he can keep this in the center of the cage, it's probably his fight to lose. Rothwell is bigger, more durable and more diverse as a striker, with a sneaky and dangerous pressure game that will give the Brazilian fits if he pushes it toward the fence.
Both fighters will likely be content to keep this on the feet, so it becomes a battle of Rothwell's aggressiveness against Dos Santos' tendency to back straight up. If his back hits the cage, he's in serious trouble.
That particular battle favors Rothwell. He can do tremendous damage when his opponent backs up, alternating between the pocket and the clinch while relying on his durability to weather the storm.
On the other hand, Rothwell isn't a relentless pressure fighter. He's aggressive, yes, but isn't wholly focused on getting his opponent to the fence. He spends a lot of time standing in front of his opponent at range, and that's in Junior's wheelhouse.
If Junior's chin has cracked after the substantial amount of punishment he's taken in the last few years, it might only take one Rothwell flurry to put him down. The balance of the matchup, however, favors his skill sets. Dos Santos keeps Rothwell on the end of long, straight punches and overcomes a few scary moments to take a decision.
