UFC 206 - Breakdowns / Predictions / Info

[NewYorkKnight]

Donald Cerrone vs Matt Brown full fight preview
from Andrew Richardson - MMA Mania




Donald Cerrone

Record: 31-7 (1)

Key Wins: Rick Story (UFC 202), Patrick Cote (UFC Fight Night 89), Eddie Alvarez (UFC 178), Benson Henderson (UFC Fight Night 59)

Key Losses: Rafael dos Anjos (UFC on FOX 17, UFC Fight Night 27), Anthony Pettis (UFC on FOX 6)


Keys to Victory:

Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai kickboxer with dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu. That description also fits his opponent fairly well, but Cerrone prefers to chop his opponent down from a distance whereas Brown wants to work his way inside the clinch and brutalize his foe.

It’s a battle of distance, like most of Cerrone’s bouts.

At this point, Brown’s vulnerability to body shots is pretty well-known. He’s been dropped multiple times via liver strike, and he was finished via knockout for the first time in his career last time out by a body kick. Seeing as how Cerrone kicks really damn hard, that’s a pretty big opening. As Brown pushes forward, Cerrone should jam a snap kick into his mid-section immediately. If Brown inches past that technique, Cerrone’s step knee will help back his opponent off.

Both of those techniques have the potential to end this bout, but Cerrone’s switch kick is perhaps his best shot at ending this one early. It’s a sneaky weapon that aims directly at Brown’s weak point, and Cerrone absolutely loves to throw it.




Matt Brown

Record: 20-15

Key Wins: Stephen Thompson (UFC 145), Jordan Mein (UFC on FOX 7), Erick Silva (UFC Fight Night 40), Mike Pyle (UFC Fight Night 26)

Key Losses: Robbie Lawler (UFC on FOX 12), Johny Hendricks (UFC 185), Demian Maia (UFC 198), Jake Ellenberger (UFC 201)


Keys to Victory:

Brown is a vicious Muay Thai fighter who thrives in the clinch. When Brown is able to close distance and unleash his offense, he’s unrelenting and breaks his opponent down with vicious elbows and knees.

Brown needs to make this bout ugly, and he needs to do it immediately. Cerrone is far too dangerous and well-equipped to take Brown out at range for him to hang around there for even an instant, and Cerrone has a history of starting slowly anyway.

By rushing Cerrone, Brown may eat some punches, but that’s never been an issue for him in the past. If he can get into his own punching range, Brown is the harder puncher and will be able to punch into the clinch. Once there, Brown is excellent at drowning his foe in the clinch with volume. He may be able to replicate Nate Diaz’s success opposite "Cowboy" in the range, but Brown’s blows are even more devastating. Cerrone is known for being susceptible to body shots as well, and Brown sets up his knees to the body like an expert.


Bottom Line:

It’s going to be an absolute war for however long it lasts.

Cerrone is trying to rush to a title shot. Being able to fight once per month is making it possible, as Cerrone is beginning to build an argument to leap frog someone like Demian Maia. At the very least, a win here helps him set up a title eliminator match with the jiu-jitsu master. On the other hand, a loss definitely sets Cerrone back. He hasn’t yet faced a truly dangerous striker like Brown at 170 pounds, and that is a different challenge than a top wrestler like Rick Story.

As for Brown, this is a very important bout for him. He won’t be released with a loss, but three straight defeats is always a bad sign. He’s been losing to really tough competition, but it may show that his career renaissance is over. That said, a win would be huge. In addition to breaking his losing streak, it would be perhaps the biggest win of Brown’s career. It’s odd that Brown’s receiving a step up in competition following some losses, but that’s the situation.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Diggin’ Deep on UFC 206: FS1 prelims preview
from Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow




Nikita Krylov (21-4) vs. Misha Cirkunov (12-2), Light Heavyweight

Is it possible the winner of this contest is dubbed the future of the light heavyweight division? That is certainly going a little too far in endorsing the talents of these relative youngsters, but it isn’t as far off as many might think. There is such a severe lack of up-and-coming talent at 205 lbs. that these two 6'3" specimens might just be the best in terms of new blood that the UFC has to offer.

Krylov is a unique case. A rangy karateka, Krylov seems to find every unorthodox way to either win or lose fights. He’s been doing a lot more winning than losing as of late, putting together five wins in a row without a single decision in the mix. The foundation of his attacks is kicks. Front kicks, leg kicks, switch kicks, round kicks… you name it and he throws it. Yes, even the occasional spinning back-kick. A big reason for that is he tends to leave his chin high when he exchanges punches, though he has experimented with a jab to good results, indicating he’s slowly improving.

Cirkunov’s defense is less of an issue than Krylov, but everything else on the feet is step behind Krylov’s skills. Powerful punching combinations in the pocket are the heart of his attack, though he is very mechanical as he has yet to find a true comfort level on the feet from range. Fortunately, Cirkunov feels right at home in the clinch, using his muscular frame to grind and wear them down while threatening with his trips and throws to take the fight to the ground.

Krylov isn’t without grappling chops. A very aggressive submission artist who excels in scrambles, Krylov has had issues when forced to stay on the ground for extended periods of time. Cirkunov hopes to expose that. Owning a very firm base, Cirkunov isn’t picky about landing his powerful ground and pound or passing guard looking for some sort of choke. He’s already considered to be one of the best grapplers in the division.

While I don’t believe the UFC has been trying to protect Krylov in any way, he hasn’t faced anyone who would threaten to take him to the ground over and over again since his UFC debut. Cirkunov is going to try and do just that and I don’t know if Krylov can prevent the Canadian from finding success. I won’t rule out Krylov catching Cirkunov with a hard kick or catching a choke in a wild scramble, but I’m favoring Cirkunov to leave with his hand raised.

Cirkunov via TKO of RD1



Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-2) vs. Drew Dober (17-7), Lightweight

The UFC has taken a keen interest in the development of Aubin-Mercier as there are very few young Canadian prospects with his level of talent on the horizon. Thus, they’ve also been careful to avoid giving him too much, too soon. Given Dober’s recent improvements, it’s plausible that the brass has slipped up in matching Aubin-Mercier with the American striker.

Heading into 2016, the book on Dober appeared to be written. Having started his amateur career way back in 2006, it didn’t seem likely he’d make any massive strides on his high output, low power Muay Thai kickboxing. Instead, Dober switched over to the Elevation Fight Team and discovered the power in his fists, blitzing Jason Gonzalez and downing him with a series of punches. There is a strong possibility the performance was a fluke, but Dober’s punch-kick combinations are technically sound and come at a fast pace. He may not need the power to overcome Aubin-Mercier’s still developing striking.

Fortunately for Aubin-Mercier, striking isn’t his wheelhouse. A judo specialist, Aubin-Mercier has developed a wide variety of ways to get the fight to the ground, from trips and throws to single and double-legs. Even if he isn’t capable of finishing the takedown, creating a scramble is often enough for the athletic youngster to take his opponent’s back and either snag a RNC right away or slowly take his time working for it. Aubin-Mercier’s grip is amazingly strong, making it difficult to escape his grip once he locks in a choke.

What isn’t good news for Aubin-Mercier is that Dober’s improvements haven’t been limited to his striking. Formerly a weak offensive wrestler, Dober opened the year having his wat with Scott Holtzman, scoring double-leg takedowns and trips in the clinch to show that he can now get the fight to the ground if he really wants. He’s always been sound in stuffing takedowns, though I will also admit that Dober hasn’t faced anyone with the reputation of Aubin-Mercier.

Worth noting has been Aubin-Mercier’s progress as a striker. He wisely keeps things simple, relying on heavily on leg kicks while throwing a flurry of punches on his takedown entries. Most of his striking success has come from dirty boxing in the clinch as opponents are often preoccupied with stopping his takedowns and trips.

This is an underrated contest thanks to Dober’s career resurgence. Few expected him to still be on a UFC roster at this juncture, but he looks like a new man following the move to Colorado. Aubin-Mercier’s progress has been steady without any major leaps in any single area which can often be frustrating for fans. If he can get past Dober here, it should be as good of sign as any of his progress. My guess is he does so in a very competitive contest where Aubin-Mercier scores a late submission finish.

Aubin-Mercier via submission of RD3



Valerie Letourneau (8-5) vs. Viviane Pereira (12-0), Women’s Strawweight

The UFC is dead set on having Letourneau face a Brazilian prospect in this event. Originally scheduled to face Poliana Botelho before Botelho got hurt, why not replace Botelho with the one woman who has beaten her in her career? Pereira is no doubt talented, but she has also feasted on a host of inexperienced opponents.

At 5'0" tall, Pereira is almost always at a disadvantage from the outside. Thus, it is no surprise that she is an absolute bulldozer, taking the action right at her opponent. The approach works for her thanks to her heavy hands, though it can only take her so far as she climbs the competitive ladder. Letourneau is the perfect antithesis to that type of style as few can take a beating like the former title challenger. The other side of the coin is that Letourneau is one of the biggest competitors in the strawweight division, clocking in at 5'7" with a 68" reach. She knows how to use that range too as a jab is a huge part of her arsenal. Even more surprising given her difficult weight cut is the pace she is able to work at. Letourneau’s combinations keep coming just as fast and heavy in the final round as they do in the first.

Just because Letourneau should be able to withstand Pereira’s blitz doesn’t mean all is lost for the newcomer. Her short frame allows her to pack a lot of muscle to bully her opponent in the clinch. It helps her to get low for her trips and sweeps too. Again though, the clinch is an area where Letourneau usually excels, often securing underhooks and nailing the occasional body lock takedown. Still, if Pereira is able to get the fight to the ground, she is a solid scrambler and her low center of gravity makes her difficult to buck if she gets top position.

Despite different body types, there are a lot of stylistic similarities between these two. Given her experience against high level competition, Letourneau is the definitive favorite by a sizeable margin. Usually I say a win by the underdog wouldn’t surprise me, though I have to admit it would in this case. Pereira is still very green and though there are winnable fights for her on the roster, I don’t think that this is one.

Letourneau via TKO of RD3



Mitch Gagnon (12-3) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-1), Bantamweight

How many of you remember that Gagnon was still in the UFC? Just short of two full years since his last appearance – a loss to Renan Barao – Gagnon returns to action looking to discard of South Dakota prospect Lopez. The youngster may have fallen short in his UFC debut to Rani Yahya, but very few have been able to solve the puzzle that is the Brazilian grappling expert.

When you look at Gagnon’s record and see that he has picked up eleven on his twelve victories by way of submission, you’d expect him to be either a powerful wrestler or a grappling wiz. The truth is that he owns a brutally tight squeeze with a knack for snatching an opponent’s neck in scrambles for a guillotine choke. All but one of his submission victories can be accounted for by that guillotine or the RNC. Gagnon rarely finishes his takedowns attempts, though he is generally fine with that so long as he can create a scramble as that is where he excels.

Lopez presents a unique challenge for the Canadian as Gagnon hasn’t faced too many with the type of wrestling pedigree Lopez brings to the table. A solid athlete with a nice scrambling game of his own, Lopez should be able to mitigate Gagnon’s strengths better than anyone else Gagnon has beaten in the UFC. Lopez also showed some unexpected traditional grappling chops, catching Yahya in an inverted triangle choke ever so briefly.

Gagnon’s standup is a very basic, though that doesn’t mean it is ineffective. He wings hard hooks which not only have enough pop in them to either stun or put the lights out, they also serve to cover his level changes with great effect. Lopez’s striking is a bit more diverse, but not by much. He throws a few more jabs and straight punches with the occasional leg kick for good measure, though he too likes to throw heavy hooks in hopes of covering his entries.

Neither fighter likes to stay on their feet for long periods of time, so look for a bunch of fun scrambles in this one. I would favor Gagnon definitively if I knew that he was the same Gagnon from two years ago, but I have no clue if that is the case. I’ll still pick the Canadian, but I’m doing so with a lot of trepidation.

Gagnon via submission of RD2

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MMAjunkie readers’ consensus picks 2016: 123-75 (62%)	Holloway (71%)	Cerrone (89%)	Choi (54%)	Kennedy (67%)	Mein (71%)
Ben Fowlkes @BenFowlkesMMA 2016: 126-72 (64%)	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Kennedy	Meek
Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 2016: 124-74 (63%)	Holloway	Cerrone	Swanson	Kennedy	Meek
John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn 2016: 123-75 (62%)	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Kennedy	Meek
Dann Stupp @DannStupp 2016: 122-76 (62%) 2015 Champion	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Gastelum	Mein
Mike Bohn @MikeBohnMMA 2016: 121-77 (61%) 2014 Champion	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Kennedy	Meek
Brent Brookhouse @BrentBrookhouse 2016: 121-77 (61%)	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Gastelum	Meek
Steven Marrocco @MMAjunkieSteven 2016: 120-78 (61%)	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Gastelum	Mein
Brian Garcia @thegoze 2016: 118-80 (60%)	Holloway	Brown	Swanson	Kennedy	Mein
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 2016: 115-83 (58%)	Holloway	Brown	Swanson	Gastelum	Meek
Fernanda Prates @nandaprates_ 2016: 76-56 (58%)	Holloway	Cerrone	Choi	Gastelum	Mein

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 206 Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive




205lbs- #8 NIKITA KRYLOV (21-4-0) vs #13 MISHA CIRKUNOV (12-2-0)

Headlining the undercard is a massive fight in the Light Heavyweight division as Nikita “The Miner” Krylov of the Ukraine takes on Latvian born and Canadian raised Misha Cirkunov. Krylov is 6-2 in the UFC and is currently riding a 5-fight winning streak with victories over Ed Herman and Francimar Barosso in his last 2 outings. Cirkunov is undefeated inside the Octagon, with a trio of wins all inside the distance.

Both men are 6’3″ and have a 77″ reach. Nikita is the younger man by 5 year.

Krylov is aggressive and will look for the finish from the onset of the bout. He has never gone the distance in his career, finishing 8 foes by knockout and 13 by submission. The Ukrainian has averaged 6.94 SLpM, including his UFC-best 60 significant strikes in just over a round against Herman. While he likes to set a pace that will overwhelm his opponent, his reckless attack also opens him up to getting hit and taken down.

Cirkunov has shown a much more calculated approach, along with an improved striking attack. Once he is able to get on the inside, his clinch work is the key to his success. The Big Canadian has completed 6 takedowns in the UFC, finishing all of his fights on the mat. When not in the clinch, Misha will change levels with a reactionary takedown to catch his opponent coming forward. Once on the mat, he does a good job controlling the position while landing strikes to either lead to a TKO or open up a submission opportunity.

The aggression of Krylov could result in him catching Cirkunov with a fight ending strike, but it will also expose him defensively. Unless Nikita can keep his foe on the outside with his kicks, Cirkunov is going to close the distance. Krylov can be taken down and if Cirkunov gets on top, his heavy top game is going to feast on the positional advantage

my prediction is Mish Cirkunov to defeat Nikita Krylov by submission.



155lbs- OLIVIER AUBIN-MERCIER (9-2-0) vs DREW DOBER (17-7-0)

The penultimate fight of the undercard features Canadain Lightweight and TUF Nations finalist Olivier Aubin-Mercier going toe to toe with Drew Dober. OAM submitted his last opponent and has a 4-1 record since his TUF tournament finals falter. Dober has won back to back fights since a flash submission loss to Efrain Escudero- he is 3-3 with a No Contest in the UFC.

Physically quite similar, the Canadian is an inch taller and a year older- they share an identical 70″ reach.

The outcome of this fight will come down to whether or not OAM is able to routinely put Dober on the mat. Olivier has 14 completed takedowns over his 4 UFC victories compared to 3 in his pair of defeats. All but 1 of his 7 wins have come by submission. Dober has decent takedown defense, stuffing 66% of his opponents’ TDAs. He has also improved his offensive wrestling, but he should put his entire focus on his counter wrestling. While Aubin-Mercier’s striking has improved, Dober will have the edge on the feet. Once OAM close the distance, he is incredibly difficult to separate from. Against Dober, Olivier should find continued success intiating the clinch and either pinning him there or dragging him to the mat. Once he is able to establish his takedown game, it will further dimish the output a more defensive-minded Dober

my prediction is Olivier Aubin-Mercier to defeat Drew Dober by decision.



115lbs- #9 VALERIE LETOURNEAU (8-5-0) vs VIVIANE PEREIRA (11-0-0)

Returning to the Strawweight division Valerie “Trouble” Letourneau looks to rebound when she takes on the debuting Viviane Pereira. Letourneau has lost back to back fights to Joanna Jedrzejczyk Joanne Calderwood. Pereira is undefeated, starting her pro career back in 2013.

The Canadian is a full decade younger than her opponent, but she will have 5″ reach advantage and is 6 inches taller than her opponent.

Pereira is stepping in on 6-weeks notice to make her debut. She has some decent pop in her hands and is willing to stand and trade. She has knocked out 4 opponents- 2 in the first round. Her pre-UFC competition hasn’t been that strong, with her last 3 opponents holding a combined 12-9 record, including a pair of .500 fighters. Throughout her career, Letourneau’s defeats have come against top-level competition. She offers a high volume striking attack, eclipsing the century mark twice, including against the divisional champion. While her numbers aren’t overwhelming, she has shown that she can take her opponent to the mat when needed. Pereira is taking a big step up in competition and while she is a willing combatant, her physical disadvantages are going to make it difficult for her to get into deployment range. Letourneau will keep the Brazilian on the outside, using her jab and kicking arsenal to simply outland her foe

my prediction is Valerie Letourneau to defeat Viviane Pereira by decision



135lbs- MITCH GAGNON (12-3-0) vs MATTHEW LOPEZ (8-1-0)

In the Bantamweight division, Ontario-born Mitch Gagnon returns to action against promotional sophomore Matthew Lopez. Lopez’s lost his debut to Rani Yahya via submission, it was the first loss of his pro career. Gagnon was last seen getting submitted by Renan Barao, he had won 4 consecutive fights prior to the defeat.

Gagnon has been on the shelf since 2014. He is 3 years older than his opponent and he is the shorter man by 2 inches with a 4″ reach disadvantage.

Lopez struggled with the mat game of Yahya, spending the majority of the fight on the defensive, before gassing, and getting submitted. Of his 8 career wins, 7 came in the opening round- 4 by submission. He has a decent wrestling attack and some pop in his hands. If the fight hits the floor, he likes to go for choke based submissions. Gagnon is coming off a sizeable layoff, but his only UFC defeats have come against top-level competition. His ground attack has been the focal point of his UFC success, with 4-takedowns a trio of submission over his 4 victorious appearances. On the feet, he is a powerful striker, doing most of damage at close range. Neither fighter has a solid gas tank, but Gagnon did show in the Tim Gorman fight he can go a full 3-rounds successfully. Gagnon will break Lopez down the clinch and on the mat, wearing him out with his physicality

my prediction is Mitch Gagnon to defeat Matt Lopez by submission.



155lbs- JOHN MAKDESSI (14-5-0) vs LANDO VANNATA (8-1-0)

In the Lightweight division, John ‘The Bull” Makdessi meets “Groovy” Lando Vannata in the Fight Pass headliner. Makdessi is coming off a split decision win over Mehdi Baghdad to snap a 2-fight losing streak. Vannata is coming off a herculean effort in his short notice debut loss to Tony Ferguson, where he nearly upset the top contender.

Lando is an inch taller and will have a 3″ reach advantage. The Canadian is the older man by 7 years.

Makdessi has been plagued by his inability to distance himself in close fights. He has out-landed his opponent in 8 consecutive contest, including a trio of bouts in which he was defeated. The Canadian’s attack lacks a strong offensive grappling component, focusing almost entirely on remaining vertical. Vannata showcased good head movement and decent power, hurting Ferguson on a couple of occasions. He has 4 wins by submission on his record- 2 by RNC. Lando capitalized on the aggressive style of Ferguson, but Makdessi will put forth a much more technically sound defensive front. Building the majority of his offense around his jab, look for Makdessi to land the more impactful strikes while limiting the offense of his opponent

my prediction is John Makdessi to defeat Lando Vannata by decision.



155lbs- JASON SAGGO (12-2-0) vs RUSTAM KHABILOV (20-3-0)

In the Lightweight division, Canadian Jason Saggo battles former Top 15 ranked Rustam “Tiger” Khabilov. Saggo is 3-1 in the UFC and is coming off of a split decision win over Leandro Silva. Khabilov has won a trio of fights since a pair of defeats to Benson Henderson and Adriano Martins- he is also coming off a win over Leandro Silva.

Saggo is the taller man by 3 inches, but will give up 2 inches of reach.

Similar to the first fight of the night, this contest should be decided on the mat. Both Saggo and Khabilov thrive on their ability to put their foe on the floor and keep them there. If forced to compete on the feet, neither man is an overwhelming striker, but the edge should lie with Khabilov. He is the slightly more active striker and hits harder. The Canadian had issues with the physical strength of Paul Felder and Rustam will put him at a similar deficit. Khabilov lands the more impactful strikes and score a couple of key takedowns

my prediciton is Rustam Khabilov to defeata Jason Saggo by decision.



125lbs- #7 ZACH MAKOVSKY (19-7-0) vs #10 DUSTIN ORTIZ (15-6-0)

To open the card, Zach “Fun Size” Makovsky takes on Dustin Ortiz in the Flyweight division. Makovsky has just a single win over his last 4-fights, defeating Tim Elliott while dropping fights to John Dodson, Jussier Formiga, and Joseph Benavidez. Ortiz has experienced similar struggles with a 1-3 record over his last 4 with losses to Formiga and Benavidez as well.

Ortiz is an inch taller and will have a 1″ reach advantage. Ortiz is 5 years younger.

Both men have failed to defeat the elite of the division, but put up competitive efforts nonetheless. Ortiz is a BJJ Brown belt and Makovsky a Purple belt and former NCAA Division 1 wrestler. They have both leaned heavily on their ground games and will look to do so here. Makovsky took Benavidez down 4-times and has completed 22 takedowns over 6 bouts. Oritz has struggled with opponents that have aggressively pursue the takedown, getting out landed 12-3 over his last 3-defeats. Makovsky will find success putting him on the floor and out scrambling him

my prediction is Zach Makovsky to defeat Dustin Ortiz by decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 206: Underdog Picks
from Stephie Haynes - Draft Kings MMA Contributor




Lando Vannata $8,700 / John Makdessi $7,500

Lando Vannata came dangerously close to ending Tony Ferguson’s huge win streak. A dynamic striker, Vannata is not afraid to stand in the pocket and trade. He’s got good timing and serious power. His use of angles and range advantage could be a handful for most in the lightweight division.

That said, Makdessi is also a great striker and is technically sound in that department. He has a super effective jab and packs a big punch in that right hand. He has a dependable kicking game and isn’t afraid to mix things up. He’s a crafty fighter, with the edge in experience at a high level, and that’s where I think the difference will be made.

John Makdessi via (T)KO



Tim Kennedy $8,300 / Kelvin Gastelum $7,900

Tim Kennedy is an excellent fighter with good power and a strong wrestling base that he utilizes efficiently (see Kennedy/Bisping fight). The problem here is that he has some strikes against him going into this bout:

•He’s 37-years-old.
•He’s been out of commission for 2+ years.
•He carries a ton of muscle which can make for a short gas tank.

Gastelum has youth on his side, and while he isn’t a cardio machine, he’s not adding to that deficit with a bunch of oxygen hungry muscles. He’s a southpaw with real power and a good blast double that is very effective. He’s got good counters and does well fighting in a phone booth.

This is a tight fight, but I think the edge will favor Gastelum based on Kennedy’s inactivity.

Kelvin Gastelum via DEC



Dooho Choi $8,900 / Cub Swanson $7,300

Dooho Choi is on my list of breakout stars that could be in title contention by the end of next year. He’s an aggressive fighter with excellent counters and a HEAVY kicking game. He mixes it up well, and will throw everything but the kitchen sink at you. His willingness to get into a dogfight might be his undoing against Swanson, though.

Cub is a seasoned veteran of a dozen years. He’s gone toe-to-toe with the best in the business and beaten most of them. He packs good power, is fast and has beautiful footwork. He’s got a solid jab and uses angles well. His experience is key here, and I believe it will win him the fight.

Cub Swanson via DEC



Max Holloway $8,800 / Anthony Pettis $7,400

Max Holloway is on a tear. With nine straight wins to his credit, you can’t deny that he is one of the best fighters on the entire roster. He’s a tall fighter with fantastic technical striking. He has a solid grasp on all the fundamentals: footwork, angles, distance control, head movement. He really is a marvel on the feet, and he’s defensively sound as well.

Pettis is an opportunist who makes the most of the situation. He’s faster than Holloway, and is slick and crafty. His high kick and aggressive striking are his bread and butter, but he’s more than competent on the ground, securing a submission win in his last fight over grappling ace, Charles Oliviera.

He can fight from either stance, but seems to have settled on the southpaw stance as his go-to choice. He’s not really what you’d call a power puncher, but when he mixes up his lightning strikes with those devastating kicks, especially his liver kick, it’s going to be a bad night for whomever is standing in front of him.

This is a really hard fight to predict, but I’m going with Pettis. His ability to find opportunity where none seemingly exists is mind-boggling.

Anthony Pettis via DEC

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Who's favored to win at UFC 206, and by how much?


Fighter win probabilities based on current betting odds. Cerrone & Choi lead the pack.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

KO Potential at UFC 206 & what it means for your fantasy team.


Doo Ho Choi's stats through 3 fights are insane.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Here's your All-Violence pairing from the UFC 206 fight card.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 206 Predictions
from Justin Hartling - OddsShark




Max Holloway vs Anthony Pettis

Max Holloway is a special talent who enters this bout with wins in each of his past nine fights, six of which came via stoppage. Holloway’s meat and potatoes of his style is his striking and he is damned good at it. He is in the top two in featherweight history in knockdowns, significant strikes landed and striking differential. ‘Blessed’ also works a ridiculous pace, as his technique and footwork allow him to throw multiple-strike combinations without wasting any time.

Holloway isn’t going to be confused for a grappler any time soon, as he almost never shoots for a takedown. That is just not part of his game, as he would rather use wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing, where he almost always holds a huge advantage. His ability to avoid the takedown has been amazing, as he has not been taken down once in his past six fights.

Anthony Pettis is getting an interim featherweight title fight in just his second bout at 145 after he defeated noted submission specialist Charles Oliveira in his last outing. Pettis generally prefers to stand and strike with a game built around his jab and leg kick. In order to properly utilize this game plan, he needs to be able to dictate the range in which the fight takes place. It is his footwork that allows ‘Showtime’ to properly use his strikes at the proper range. I’d be lying if I said some of the aura around Pettis’ striking is gone after he lost to Edson Barboza.

With Pettis’ need for space in the striking game, opponents have started to smother him more in the wrestling game. This technique worked for Rafael dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and even Clay Guida. Though generally not talked about as much, Pettis has actually recorded more wins via submission than knockout. Many opponents think it’s best to bring Pettis to the ground, but he is extremely lethal from there.

This fight is likely going to be contended on the feet. Both Holloway and Pettis have some amazing striking skills and neither has ever been knocked out in their careers. Holloway’s pace and aggression should help negate Pettis’ distance-based striking and give the Hawaiian his first taste of gold.

Prediction: Max Holloway (-205)



Donald Cerrone vs Matt Brown

Since moving to welterweight, Donald Cerrone has looked indestructible with three stoppage wins. Cerrone has proven that he can still maintain the speed and pace he pushed at 155 lbs, but has developed much more power at 170. This is evidenced by his knockout victories over Patrick Cote and Rick Story, both guys who had never been KO’ed in 10-plus years of MMA. ‘Cowboy’ is a master of distance and has some of the most lethal kicks in MMA today.

Cerrone is also a submission ace with 16 career victories via sub. He is extremely active from the guard and always looks for the finish when the fight goes to the mat. His wrestling game is serviceable, but not anything to write home about.

Matt Brown is one of the most dramatic fighters in UFC history, but he has hit the skids recently with just one win in his past five. None of those losses have been overly bad considering the level of competition, but it’s proven that Brown is never going to be elite. ‘Immortal’ is primarily a striker who aggressively pushes the pace and always has his foot on the gas. It’s not what you would define as pretty, but it has been effective.

Brown has put time into his wrestling and submission game, but it is still lacking. Ten of his career losses have come by way of submission and he is not likely to outmaneuver an opponent on the ground.

Cerrone holds the edge in pretty much every aspect of this fight. He is a more technical striker, has more power and has better grappling skills. Plus, Brown’s power hasn’t exactly been prevalent, as his last knockout came against the terrible Erick Silva in 2014.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone (-280)



Cub Swanson vs Dooho Choi

Cub Swanson is one of the more underrated fighters in the world right now. His striking style is so smooth and fundamentally sound, but he supplements that with some flashy techniques. Swanson loves to remain unpredictable in the striking game by constantly feinting and faking. The one thing that could be an issue in this fight is his hand placement, as Swanson can keep his hands low to help protect against takedown attempts.

Swanson’s wrestling isn’t especially great, but he has no problem whatsoever fighting from the ground. The BJJ black belt is constantly moving and angling for submission attempts if a fight takes to the mat and he has recorded seven victories via submission. However, this sometimes leaves him exposed, as five of his seven career losses have come via tap.

I’m going to open this by confessing that you are unlikely to find a bigger Dooho Choi fan than me. There’s something about a guy who looks like he is 14 years old and just lays waste to his opponents that I can’t help but love.

Choi’s game is built around countering and landing his massive right hand. ‘The Korean Superboy’ is very meticulous in the striking game and has no problem waiting for his opportunity, though that opportunity has not needed to be very large for him to capitalize on.

His defensive wrestling looked OK in limited exposure but he was taken down very easily against Thiago Tavares. If Tavares would have actually attempted to do something on the ground, then maybe we wouldn't be talking about Choi. Though he is still young, the biggest asset when grappling has been his ability to stay calm and conserve energy.

Swanson has to know that his path of least resistance is to get this fight to the mat. However, can he take down Choi with some solid, yet unspectacular wrestling skills? Swanson’s initial unpredictability in the striking game could cause Choi issues, but his poise and quickness will ultimately win out over 15 minutes.

Prediction: Dooho Choi (-225)



Tim Kennedy vs Kelvin Gastelum

Tim Kennedy has always been a phenomenal grappler. He is an aggressive wrestler who can both land and defend takedowns, which is attributed more to his tenacity and aggressiveness than his actual technique. Though he is not widely recognized as such, Kennedy has some slick submissions with eight wins via sub (seven of which came via a choke).

Kennedy’s striking game is just OK. Much like his wrestling, it’s more about his volume and cardio in the striking game. In the open, he is relatively ineffective but can do plenty of damage in the clinch. Kennedy’s iron chin usually does enough to keep him alive in the standup game, but at 37 you need to wonder when that will start to evaporate.

Kelvin Gastelum has all the pieces to be one of the best fighters in the world. He is strong, athletic and has the skills to dominate a fight in every area. His striking game has become the focal point of his attack, with the Arizona native sporting a fantastic jab. Early in his career, Gastelum was a grappler and he still has great skills in that department.

The biggest issue with Gastelum seems to be mental. He looks like a killer in one moment and then looks completely lackadaisical the next. He also has had issues making weight, as he has missed weight in three of his past six fights.

It’s always hard to figure out who wins in a Gastelum fight. If Gastelum shows up at 100 percent and focused, he could beat almost anybody, but when he doesn’t want it, he is easily beaten. I know Kennedy will show up and he will push the work rate at a high level. More often than not, in a fight like this, I lean toward the constant.

Prediction: Tim Kennedy (-140)



Jordan Mein vs Emil Meek

Jordan Mein returns from retirement after being away from competitive MMA for over a year. Mein is still just 27 years old and should still have the power in his hands that made him a threat to end any opponent. ‘Young Gun’ has grown up in martial arts, as his father operated Rumble in the Cage, and has been training in various forms of fighting since the age of four.

He is a lanky welterweight and he uses his reach well in the cage. He has deadly knockout power in all of his limbs and has some of the best knee strikes around. He isn’t much of a wrestler but if a fight goes to the mat, he has the submission skills to get it done, with seven victories via sub.

Defense has always been Mein’s biggest weakness. He is a violent fighter who takes a hit to give a hit. That accumulation of damage to the body was ultimately a motivating factor in his retirement. If the time away allowed Mein to fix this issue, he can be a threat in the division, but you can’t consistently beat the best fighters taking that level of punishment.

Emil Meek will finally make his UFC debut after several incidents have caused it to be delayed on several occasions. ‘Valhalla’ is an aggressive puncher who attacks his opponents, as each of his seven career knockout victories has come via his hands. This style is risky and it has gotten Meeks knocked out twice himself, but it’s damned exciting.

It’s difficult to get a great grasp of Meek’s complementary skills, as seven of his 10 pro fights have been finished within the first round. His limited wrestling defense seems based more on strength than refined technique. He does have one submission win to his name, but it was more opportunistic than anything else.

The first round is going to be extremely violent. Both Mein and Meek are powerful strikers who search for the knockout and have questionable defense. In a spot like this, I tend to just take the better value and that’s Meek.

Prediction: Emil Meek (+130)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

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Drew Dober (+150) for 1 unit.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC 206 Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions




Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis

Anton Tabuena: Say what you want about the legitimacy of the belt, but I will not complain about this bout being bumped up to 5 rounds. I am also salivating at the idea of the winner probably being a lock to go against Jose Aldo in yet another stand up affair. Anyway, both these guys are dynamic strikers, but I think Pettis has better kicks, while Holloway has better hands. Pettis looked pretty good in his featherweight debut. He also isn’t undersized in this division, and with this match up of strikers, any holes he may have shown in wrestling when he was at lightweight probably won’t be a factor here. That said, Pettis missed weight badly, so his performance will likely be hindered in the later rounds. Holloway is also arguably the most mobile and complete striker Pettis has faced, and probably holds the edge in power as well. To me, that makes Holloway the favorite. Pettis has a chance to make this interesting if he can control distance with his kicks, especially without the constant threat of a takedown. That’s easier said than done against the lengthy and talented Hawaiian of course, but I do believe that controlling pace and distance will be the key here. I was already picking Holloway by to win by decision before Pettis missed weight, and now I guess it’s more likely that he can get the finish in the latter rounds.

Max Holloway by late TKO.


Mookie Alexander: Holloway’s the better striker (read: better boxer by a loooooong way), can actually make 145 without issue, and Pettis just doesn’t throw enough to trust him to win rounds in a five-round fight. His best path to victory is to take Holloway down or for Holloway to get caught by a Pettis submission off of his back. You also can’t discount the power Pettis puts in his kicks, but I’m going with the Hawaiian to put a hurtin’ on Showtime.

Max Holloway by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: I’m feeling Holloway here. He’s dynamic, and in a way that allows him to still get away with taking multiple risks per fight. His boxing is better, his range is better, he’s fast and strong, and he’s damn near unstoppable right now. Pettis is agile and has been working on his wrestling, but Max can push a pace he won’t be expecting and can make sure Pettis is never in a comfortable striking range. Waianae stand up.

Max Holloway by TKO.


Ram Gilboa: After dropping 3 decisions at lightweight, I thought Pettis had a very good debut at feather against Oliveira. His kicks got their shock & awe back; his wrestling, still a plan B, seemed more efficient - and when it failed, the A-plan Jiu-Jitsu was dangerous with evidence. However, Holloway moves too much on his feet, punches too often and too strong, and won’t seek the ground like a shin-shocked Oliveira did. He’s also on his way going places. Pettis weighing in 3 pounds over just makes me more certain Holloway wins a good fight, that’ll favor him more and more as the rounds wear on. (Although I kind of want Pettis to win and have them figure the FW title out then)

Max Holloway by decision.


Tim Bissell: I was feeling Pettis as a submission threat to ‘Blessed’ before the drama around making weight surfaced. That’s enough for me to regain my senses and side with Holloway, who may finish a ‘bad-weight-cut’ version of Pettis.

Max Holloway by TKO (punches), round 2.


Fraser Coffeen: I’ve long felt Pettis is an inconsistent fighter who takes himself out of winnable fights too often, and this weight issue only furthers my thoughts there. What a mess this card turned out to be.

Max Holloway, decision


Eddie Mercado: Pettis has more venom in his strikes and has a pretty stout chin. Plus I've seen more from Pettis in terms of ground game. For some reason I can't shake the memory of Connor McGregor controlling Max Holloway on the ground.

Anthony Pettis by decision




Staff picking Holloway: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Bissell, Fraser, Tim

Staff picking Pettis: Eddie

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown


Anton Tabuena: Both men will throw bombs until one falls, probably with a well timed body shot (again)… Who has a bigger chance to make that happen? Tough pick. Cerrone is faster and more technical, while Brown should be stronger and a bit ‘trickier’ in a sense that he doesn’t come with the standard Muay Thai approach. Cerrone has succumbed to good pressure fighters in the past, and against a welterweight in Brown, that could be trouble for him. The two trained together before, and since everyone knows what Cerrone will be bringing, I think being more familiar with each other benefits him more. I see this going either way, but I think if Cerrone avoids getting pressured early, he should be able to use that speed advantage and land a good amount of strikes.

Donald Cerrone by TKO (body kick and punches).


Mookie Alexander: Cerrone doesn’t react kindly to well-placed body shots, but Matt Brown legitimately folds himself over when he gets hit to the body. Cowboy’s striking has looked better than ever through the guidance of Brandon Gibson, and while Cerrone by TKO is the popular pick, I see Cowboy hurting Brown and then jumping on his back and sinking in a rear-naked choke. Brown’s got a shot just on his toughness and Muay Thai skills alone, but Cerrone’s a better fighter by a considerable distance.

Donald Cerrone by rear-naked choke, round 2.


Victor Rodriguez: Cerrone’s success at welterweight seems to have accompanied dropping his penchant for being a slow starter. Storming right out of the gate to set the pace is going to benefit him against Brown, and those body kicks will likely crumple the Immortal. This will be a hard-hitting Muay Thai battle of attrition, and

Donald takes this by debilitating Brown midway through the first and continues to pick him apart until he finds the right opening to finish the fight.


Ram Gilboa: Hi kids! Do you like violence? This fight is going to have some of the same effects on the audience of an Eminem song dropping in 1999 – eyes wide open and growing wider by the second, and lot of “holy” and “I can’t believe he just”, and you’re going to talk about it for a while.

They’re both tough, great, high-volume full range muay-thai strikers; although Cerrone is likely the more well-rounded MMA fighter, and is in a better place in his career (part of the reason being he’s not the one who met Demian Maia earlier this year). Besides the – inevitable? - Maia loss, Brown also just got crushed by Jake Ellenberger, putting him two straight in the red. While Cerrone’s last loss a year ago also isn’t a faded memory, it was in a title fight (against RDA), and he since went 3-0 in 2016 with 3 stoppages. I feel like number 4 is coming up.

Donald Cerrone by submission, round 2.


Tim Bissell: I smell a late entry for round of the year coming up with both men swinging for the fences (and bonuses). Brown has come out on top of those of chaotic brawls before, and I think he can do it again here - out muscling Cerrone and targeting that Bud Light primed liver.

Matt Brown by TKO (body punches), late round 1.




Staff picking Brown: Bissell

Staff picking Cerrone: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Eddie

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Doo Ho Choi vs. Cub Swanson


Anton Tabuena: Choi looks like a guy Mookie’s age, but I still expect the Korean prospect to shine and get another highlight reel finish here.

Doo Ho Choi by KO.


Mookie Alexander: Been picking chalk too much lately, so time to go for an upset here. I love Choi, he’s a terrific talent, but even a slightly past-his-prime Swanson is way way way better than anyone else he’s faced. Swanson is a crafty striker, dangerous on the counter, and very athletic. I do worry about his historically great chin, and chances are Choi can put him away if he lands a solid shot or two, but I’m going with the veteran to find a way to get Choi down and work his top game. Swanson’s not really a good wrestler and Choi has shown quality takedown defense, but I have a feeling Cub’s still got something left in the tank.

Cub Swanson by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: This fight has the potential to be an absurd amount of fun. Swanson’s got great boxing skills and movement, and he’s also developed patience and the ability to hang back and play the counter game when needed. Unfortunately, he ends up getting reckless. That’s where he’s at his most vulnerable. Then again, he’s the more experienced of the two. On the other hand, Choi brings a lovely arsenal of confident volume punches in spurts, body kicks and lethal knees. We haven’t seen much of his ground game in the UFC so far, and he’s too content to eat a few shots to give a few, and Swanson can catch him and ruin him. All things considered, I feel Choi stylistically should win this. Smart money says Swanson, but I’m still going with Choi.

Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 2.


Phil Mackenzie: Aw, Cub. Feel like his recent wins have been just on the edge. He had some serious scares from a rather faded Kawajiri and was well on his way to losing to Dias before landing a weird headkick. If he's taking punches from someone as glacially slow as Kawajiri I can't help but feel like Choi will catch him sometime early with something big. He's historically been super tough to take out with strikes, but I just have a bad feeling.

Doo Ho Choi by TKO, round 1.




Staff picking Choi: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Bissell, Fraser, Tim

Staff picking Swanson: Ram, Mookie, Eddie

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Tim Kennedy


Anton Tabuena: Unless ring rust plays a major factor and his timing isn’t there, stylewise, this is really Tim Kennedy’s fight to lose.

Tim Kennedy by Decision.


Mookie Alexander: Gastelum is in a Johny Hendricks-esque situation where being a 5’9” middleweight is just not going to cut it at the highest level. Johny is staying put at 170 for at least another fight, whereas Gastelum has just bungled too many weight cuts for 170 to seem like his long-term home. The question mark here is Kennedy’s ring rust after being out for over 2 years, but I imagine Gastelum will win the striking exchanges but will not be able to have an answer for Kennedy’s wrestling and stifling top game.

Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: Gastelum is a tremendous wrestler and a better athlete than he’s given credit for, but no. Kennedy is a tremendous submission grappler that shut down Roger Gracie and punished him in an ugly fight that was only a joy to watch if you’re a grappling fan. Kennedy’s striking is better, he’s probably coming in bigger and his experience will come into play. Gastelum has the makings of a great fighter, but I don’t know if he’s ready for this. While I hope I’m wrong about that,

Tim Kennedy by submission.


Ram Gilboa: Gastelum – is he a too-big welterweight? A full-size middleweight? Because on Saturday he is going up against one of the most solid high-level true middleweight contenders, who when last seen gave Yoel Romero a run for his money. (By the way, Romero is a southpaw like Gastelum).

At 25, Gastelum is still very young in MMA, and at the very least grappling-wise, apart from his very nice wrestling, he is years behind Kennedy. This fight would have Kennedy written all over it except for one thing: Gastelum fought in the Octagon five times since September 2014 when Kennedy last stepped in the cage – including a high-profile outing in UFC 200 in Gastelum’s last fight. His striking looked pretty good and improved then against Hendricks, and he always has that perilous southpaw kick.

That said, Tim Kennedy by decision.


Phil Mackenzie: Think the tone of this one will be set early. Gastelum was a quick welterweight and will likely be blindingly fast at middleweight, with the obvious caveat that he's going to be dramatically outsized. Kennedy is somewhat of a looping puncher, so don't be surprised if Gastelum starts out piecing him up with the one-two. The main question is what happens if/when they lock up. Magny was able to soundly outwrestle Gastelum, and despite his excellent scrambling ability Gastelum is going to have even less luck fighting off the top game of Tim Kennedy. The obvious caveat is how often Kennedy has been out.

Tim Kennedy by unanimous decision.




Staff picking Gastelum: Bissell

Staff picking Kennedy: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Eddie

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Jordan Mein vs. Emil Weber Meek


Anton Tabuena: Mein has been out a while, but he is still a really good and experienced fighter. Even on his last loss against Alves, he was winning handily and looked great until that perfectly placed liver kick ended things in an instant. I will also need to see more from the Palhares slayer at this level before I start picking him.

Jordan Mein by TKO.


Mookie Alexander: I still want to believe in Jordan Mein, dammit! I’m worried though that he’s the Joe Stevenson type who will completely fade out of the sport at a young age because he’s had a billion pro fights and turned professional as a teenager. The last time we saw him, he was beating Thiago Alves until he wasn’t. As for Meek, he was last seen thrashing Rousimar Palhares, but it’s not like it’s particularly tough to knock Palhares out. Meek has a cool axe, but he wasn’t allowed to bring it on media day, and I don’t think it’s allowed in the Octagon.

So on that note, Jordan Mein by unanimous decision.


Ram Gilboa: This will be Emil “Valhalla” Weber Meek first time inside the octagon - a ticket the 8-2-1 Norwegian got on account of that win against Palhares in Venator - after a fight slated for UFN 93 in Germany against a fellow debuter got cancelled. Jordan Mein is no debuter - a very experienced 27 year old, he was kickboxing at four, and grappling, did the MMA amateur circuit and has behind him 39 pro MMA fights (29-10) - Mein already had time to retire and this is his comeback fight. It has been almost 2 years since Mein’s last time out, a TKO loss to Thiago Alves in a fight he was up to that point leading nicely with some smart striking. His main disadvantages are that he is not a Viking and does not carry an axe. Both Mein and Meek have shown an ability to knock people out - Palhares have since been knocked out again in KSW in Poland, but still a nice get for Meek, Mein stopped Dan Miller. It is also proven they both can be stopped themselves. Ring rust vs. Octagon jitters. Tonight Odin feasts.

Meek by TKO, round 1.


Phil Mackenzie: Mills is super aggressive and athletic, with good instincts, but I'm not sure if he's much more than that? Reminds me a little of early career Travis Browne in a way, in that he'll find a way to smoke people who are less athletic or committed by simply overwhelming them. So the question is if he can do what Brown did to Mein. I have general questions about Mein's willingness and enjoyment levels, as well as any potential injuries, but he's a whole different level of stand-up technician to Meek and is himself a really good athlete.

Jordan Mein by TKO, round 1.




Staff picking Mein: Anton, Mookie, Phil, Fraser, Bissell, Eddie

Staff picking Meek: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Tim

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Misha Cirkunov vs. Nikita Krylov


Mookie Alexander: Y’all know Krylov is the best fighter ever, but I do need to break character a little bit and go for Cirkunov. Krylov has a clear advantage on the feet, but Cirkunov is a strong-ass man who is really really good on the ground. The challenge for Misha will be to close the distance on Krylov and take him down (reactive shot?), but I think it’s a challenge he’ll solve, and just dominate Krylov on the mat.

Misha Cirkunov by submission, round 3.


Victor Rodriguez: Cirkunov is strong, loves making his opponent carry his weight and usually fights smart given his physical attributes. He done goofed when he signed on for this fight, though. Krylov is like the Macho Man Randy Savage of MMA, with a dash of Mayor Mike Haggar and the little Japanese rapping girl from Blade. Who are we really kidding here? Krylov’s style breaks backs like Ken Patera.

Wu-Tang. Nikita Krylov (DA GAWD) by tear-inducing violence.


Phil Mackenzie: How fast is Cirkunov? I think that's the question here. He was very, very slow when he first came to the UFC, but looked a good deal lighter on his feet the last time out. If he can't close Nikki Thrillz down, he's going to be standing on the end of kicks a lot, and his striking and grappling style does not inherently cover distance well. Conversely, if he can keep up with Krylov's footspeed, he can bully him in the pocket with combination punches and just being a much stronger dude. This is a fantastic fight from a division which doesn't throw them up all that often any more.

Nikita Krylov by TKO, round 3.




Staff picking Cirkunov: Mookie, Bissell, Tim

Staff picking Krylov: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Eddie

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Drew Dober


Phil Mackenzie: Have enjoyed Dober's resurgence, but if there's something I consistently pick up on with Team Elevation it's that they're better at mixing it up in "pure" striking matches than you might expect, and worse at keeping it a pure striking match than you might expect. Essentially, even their strikers always end up actively grappling. In that case, OAM is just going to clinch and jump on Dober's back and ride out a round or two. OAM hasn't progressed as much as I'd like, so I'd actually like to see Dober win,

but Olivier Aubin-Mercier by unanimous decision.




Staff picking OAM: Ram, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim

Staff picking Dober: Nick, Stephie, Eddie

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Valerie Letourneau vs. Viviane Pereira


Victor Rodriguez: Brief primer on Pereira - she’s 5’0 tall and an absolute firecracker. She rushes in with volleys of punches and can actually hit pretty hard if she catches you with one of her winging hooks. Also, she likes her body lock takedowns, even if she has to muscle them to succeed. Unfortunately, that’s not going to work against better opponents. If you check Pereira’s record, there’s a handful of those wins that are over fighters that right now are either .500 or worse. Val hung tough for five rounds with Joanna Champion and busted her up pretty good in a losing effort.

So yeah, Valerie Letourneau by decision.


Phil Mackenzie: Letourneau's last loss was a bit of a surprise to me. Am wondering if she lost her motivation a bit following the loss to Jedrzejczyk- she's an enormous strawweight and I can't feel like it's a very fun weight cut. Pereira is super aggressive but technically limited, and unless we get a Noke-Moreno deal,

Valerie Letourneau by unanimous decision.



Staff picking Letourneau: Nick, Victor, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim, Eddie

Staff picking Pereira:

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Mitch Gagnon vs. Matthew Lopez


Phil Mackenzie: One of the main questions is if Lopez' terrible gas tank against Yahya was due to an octagon jitters adrenaline dump, or whether it's a persistent problem against UFC-level athletes. The other question is Gagnon- he's a pretty old bantamweight who's been out for a minute. He's also a tank, however.

Mitch Gagnon by unanimous decision.


Eddie Mercado: Trevor Wittman sighting!

Lopez by KO




Staff picking Gagnon: Nick, Ram, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Fraser, Bissell, Tim

Staff picking Lopez: Eddie