Newcomer Michael McBride stepped up on short notice to face Nik Lentz after his original opponent Mairbek Taisumov was forced off the card, but he couldn't make weight for the lightweight bout airing live on FS1.
McBride came in at 158 pounds — two pounds over the lightweight limit for a non-title fight — and Ohio Athletic Commission executive director Bernie Profato confirmed that he would be fined 20-percent of his purse, which is then given directly to his opponent.
McBride came in at 158 pounds — two pounds over the lightweight limit for a non-title fight — and Ohio Athletic Commission executive director Bernie Profato confirmed that he would be fined 20-percent of his purse, which is then given directly to his opponent.
Weigh in Results ...
MAIN CARD PAY-PER-VIEW
Stipe Miocic (246) vs. Alistair Overeem (248.5)
Fabricio Werdum (239.5) vs. Travis Browne (241)
CM Punk (170) vs. Mickey Gall (170.5)
Urijah Faber (136) vs. Jimmie Rivera (135.5)
Joanne Calderwood (116) vs. Jessica Andrade (115.5)
UFC 202 PRELIMS ON FS1
Jessica Eye (135) vs. Bethe Correia (135)
Brad Tavares (186) vs. Caio Magalhaes (185.5)
Nik Lentz (156) vs. Michael McBride (158)*
CB Dollaway (205) vs. Francimar Barroso (205.5)
UFC 202 EARLY PRELIMS
Yancy Medeiros (171) vs. Sean Spencer (170)
Drew Dober (155) vs. Jason Gonzalez (156)
MAIN CARD PAY-PER-VIEW
Stipe Miocic (246) vs. Alistair Overeem (248.5)
Fabricio Werdum (239.5) vs. Travis Browne (241)
CM Punk (170) vs. Mickey Gall (170.5)
Urijah Faber (136) vs. Jimmie Rivera (135.5)
Joanne Calderwood (116) vs. Jessica Andrade (115.5)
UFC 202 PRELIMS ON FS1
Jessica Eye (135) vs. Bethe Correia (135)
Brad Tavares (186) vs. Caio Magalhaes (185.5)
Nik Lentz (156) vs. Michael McBride (158)*
CB Dollaway (205) vs. Francimar Barroso (205.5)
UFC 202 EARLY PRELIMS
Yancy Medeiros (171) vs. Sean Spencer (170)
Drew Dober (155) vs. Jason Gonzalez (156)
UFC 203: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Jessica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood
Steven Rondina
Andrade was decent at 135 pounds but I'm expecting her to be great at 115. I think she'll post a Pride-era Wanderlei Silva-like performance and bust Joanne Calderwood up en route to a handy decision.
Andrade, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Both women looked exceptional in their last fights, but Calderwood's came at 125 pounds. At 115, she hasn't looked exceptional since her time in Invicta. The extra 10 pounds will take away her ability to handle Andrade's berserk striking and power. She'll get mauled against the cage. Andrade shows up to announce herself as a true contender in the division.
Andrade, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Andrade looked terrifying against Jessica Penne, but striking with Calderwood won't be so easy. I too have some concerns about Calderwood at 115, but not enough to override how impressed I was with her performance in Ottawa. She'll handle Andrade's pressure and score points from a distance and inside the clinch. Ultimately, that will be enough to earn the decision.
Calderwood, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Are you ready for some output? Calderwood might get a few highlight-reel shots, but Andrade takes a decision on volume and toughness.
Andrade, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Andrade is only 5'2", and she held her own as a bantamweight. She also has a 79 percent finish rate of her 15 wins. Calderwood is a talented striker, but her ability to keep Andrade at length when faced with that blitzkrieg is kind of an unknown. Andrade also has solid grappling, which has proven problematic for Calderwood in the past.
Andrade, submission, Rd. 2
Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera
Steven Rondina
I'm not the only one that's kind of sad to see Faber go from fighting for the title to seeing him fight some no-namer on the undercard of a B-level pay-per-view, right? I mean, he'll win, probably. But I can't get past the fact that he's taking these kinds of fights with nothing on the line.
Faber, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Faber doesn't lose fights like this. Faber still enjoys to fight but is clearly not a contender. These are the type of fights we'll get out of him until he completely fades or decides he's done.
Faber, submission, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
Faber is still doing the thing where he loses to elite fighters, but beats everyone else. Can he keep the theme against Rivera? Recent wins over Alex Caceres, Francisco Rivera and Frankie Saenz did not come as easily as they once did, and Rivera might just be the guy to nudge the fan favorite toward the twilight.
Rivera, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
All the signs point to a younger, fresher Rivera turning this into a stand-up boxing match and outpointing the slower Faber. Faber can try to grapple it up, but I don't see Rivera being slow enough to let that happen.
Rivera, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
It's possible Faber's fading star is reaching its nadir, but I don't know that Rivera will be the one to illustrate that for us. Sure, Rivera has a record of 19-1, but 13 of those wins are by decision. Is he likely to win a decision over someone as experienced and as strong a wrestler as Faber? Nah.
Faber, decision
CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
Steven Rondina
It's kind of funny how Mickey Gall, and his two wins over guys with a combined pro record of 1-3, is suddenly an unstoppable killing machine. He'll probably be able to beat CM Punk, but he'll probably do so in an ugly, boring slog of a fight.
Gall, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I don't know how any one on Earth can legitimately break this fight down. We have some video on Gall, but even that's limited. And, essentially, nothing on Punk. Until we see this fight we just don't know anything about how it plays out. It's a complete guess. Since it's a guess...I'll take Punk. Why not?
CM Punk, submission, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
Rondina raises a good point: Punk's obvious inexperience has made people buy into Gall by default. That said, he looks like a solid fighter with some innate athleticism. No reason to overthink what will be a pretty one-sided affair, but I applaud McCarter's bravery.
Gall, submission, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
Gall is just too fast, too young and too athletic. Punk might rile up the crowd with an early near-submission, but this is Gall's fight to lose. He's not going to lose it.
Gall, TKO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Who doesn't want Punk to win? Probably plenty of people, but does anyone want to see him suffer a really awful beatdown? I hope not. I don't. Punk seems to have a level head going into this fight, although I'm not sure he understands how crazy it is to start an MMA career at 37 after racking up years of pro wrestling on your body. Punk has a height advantage, at 6'2", and has been training at Roufusport since January 2015, when not waylaid by injuries. That's a camp full of high-level coaches and training partners, and that has the potential to go far in the time he's been there. So, I'm going to go out on a limb with Nathan and say, "Why not?"
Punk, submission, Rd. 2
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne
Steven Rondina
Werdum and Browne haven't changed much since their first fight, and Werdum won that pretty easily. Unless Browne can break off an early KO, Werdum should be able to post three solid rounds and take a decision.
Werdum, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I'm just not sold on Browne being an elite heavyweight. He has power, but he doesn't have anything else that can truly oust Werdum. He's got the proverbial puncher's chance. Werdum gets him to the fence, to the ground and to the loss column.
Werdum, submission, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Werdum has already beaten Brown up for 25 minutes. Another 15 are on the way.
Werdum, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
The Summer of Travis continues unabated. After getting pulpified in July by Cain Velasquez, Browne will now get pretzel-knotted by one of the best jiu-jitsu players in the world.
Werdum, submission, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
I'm with Nathan again; Browne has never struck me as particularly skilled or adept, despite victories over some impressive names—including Alistair Overeem. While he may be powerful enough to drop an opponent with a perfectly timed strike, Werdum would be a fool if he weren't more cautious coming off a fast knock-out title loss to Stipe Miocic. Browne hasn't lost by submission yet, but I doubt it's from any real grappling prowess. That will change. The lack of submission losses, not his grappling prowess.
Werdum, submission, Rd. 1
Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Steven Rondina
This one is so incredibly tough to pick. Overeem is a downright scary fighter at times, but his soft chin and inconsistency make it tough to buy into him in any big way. Miocic isn't exceptionally good in any area, but he's so fundamentally sound all over that he can hang with anyone anywhere. Miocic gets my nod, though, based on his edge in wrestling (and the potentially home-cooked judges' decision).
Miocic, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
It's an exceptional fight mostly due to the improvements Overeem has made tactically since joining Greg Jackson and company in New Mexico. With that said, I'll still side with the champion. The tempo of the fight will get to Overeem and allow Miocic to start piling up the strikes in the second. The referee will have to save Overeem.
Miocic, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Overeem has demonstrated some tactical improvements lately, but I'm more than sold on Miocic. I anticipate that Saturday will mark the first of multiple defenses for the champion, who just continues to get better every time he competes.
Miocic, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
We'll see in short order if Miocic has been quaffing too much of that Cleveland lake water since he won the title. Here's guessing he hasn't. His boxing and his defensive wrestling will keep him up and keep him firing. Overeem's chin has seen better days.
Miocic, KO, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
Overeem always seems so gigantic. I find myself potentially swayed by mountainous men like Overeem and Lesnar, but let's also remember that Miocic managed to finish Mark Hunt with a TKO. That's a serious feat. With 17 fights under his belt, Miocic is comfortable in the cage and, I'm guessing, fresher than Overeem. 56 fights is nuts, right? Overeem has been on a streak lately with four consecutive wins, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything if your next opponent is Miocic.
Miocic, TKO, Rd. 2
Jessica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood
Steven Rondina
Andrade was decent at 135 pounds but I'm expecting her to be great at 115. I think she'll post a Pride-era Wanderlei Silva-like performance and bust Joanne Calderwood up en route to a handy decision.
Andrade, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Both women looked exceptional in their last fights, but Calderwood's came at 125 pounds. At 115, she hasn't looked exceptional since her time in Invicta. The extra 10 pounds will take away her ability to handle Andrade's berserk striking and power. She'll get mauled against the cage. Andrade shows up to announce herself as a true contender in the division.
Andrade, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
Andrade looked terrifying against Jessica Penne, but striking with Calderwood won't be so easy. I too have some concerns about Calderwood at 115, but not enough to override how impressed I was with her performance in Ottawa. She'll handle Andrade's pressure and score points from a distance and inside the clinch. Ultimately, that will be enough to earn the decision.
Calderwood, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Are you ready for some output? Calderwood might get a few highlight-reel shots, but Andrade takes a decision on volume and toughness.
Andrade, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Andrade is only 5'2", and she held her own as a bantamweight. She also has a 79 percent finish rate of her 15 wins. Calderwood is a talented striker, but her ability to keep Andrade at length when faced with that blitzkrieg is kind of an unknown. Andrade also has solid grappling, which has proven problematic for Calderwood in the past.
Andrade, submission, Rd. 2
Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera
Steven Rondina
I'm not the only one that's kind of sad to see Faber go from fighting for the title to seeing him fight some no-namer on the undercard of a B-level pay-per-view, right? I mean, he'll win, probably. But I can't get past the fact that he's taking these kinds of fights with nothing on the line.
Faber, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Faber doesn't lose fights like this. Faber still enjoys to fight but is clearly not a contender. These are the type of fights we'll get out of him until he completely fades or decides he's done.
Faber, submission, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
Faber is still doing the thing where he loses to elite fighters, but beats everyone else. Can he keep the theme against Rivera? Recent wins over Alex Caceres, Francisco Rivera and Frankie Saenz did not come as easily as they once did, and Rivera might just be the guy to nudge the fan favorite toward the twilight.
Rivera, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
All the signs point to a younger, fresher Rivera turning this into a stand-up boxing match and outpointing the slower Faber. Faber can try to grapple it up, but I don't see Rivera being slow enough to let that happen.
Rivera, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
It's possible Faber's fading star is reaching its nadir, but I don't know that Rivera will be the one to illustrate that for us. Sure, Rivera has a record of 19-1, but 13 of those wins are by decision. Is he likely to win a decision over someone as experienced and as strong a wrestler as Faber? Nah.
Faber, decision
CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
Steven Rondina
It's kind of funny how Mickey Gall, and his two wins over guys with a combined pro record of 1-3, is suddenly an unstoppable killing machine. He'll probably be able to beat CM Punk, but he'll probably do so in an ugly, boring slog of a fight.
Gall, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I don't know how any one on Earth can legitimately break this fight down. We have some video on Gall, but even that's limited. And, essentially, nothing on Punk. Until we see this fight we just don't know anything about how it plays out. It's a complete guess. Since it's a guess...I'll take Punk. Why not?
CM Punk, submission, Rd. 1
Craig Amos
Rondina raises a good point: Punk's obvious inexperience has made people buy into Gall by default. That said, he looks like a solid fighter with some innate athleticism. No reason to overthink what will be a pretty one-sided affair, but I applaud McCarter's bravery.
Gall, submission, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
Gall is just too fast, too young and too athletic. Punk might rile up the crowd with an early near-submission, but this is Gall's fight to lose. He's not going to lose it.
Gall, TKO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Who doesn't want Punk to win? Probably plenty of people, but does anyone want to see him suffer a really awful beatdown? I hope not. I don't. Punk seems to have a level head going into this fight, although I'm not sure he understands how crazy it is to start an MMA career at 37 after racking up years of pro wrestling on your body. Punk has a height advantage, at 6'2", and has been training at Roufusport since January 2015, when not waylaid by injuries. That's a camp full of high-level coaches and training partners, and that has the potential to go far in the time he's been there. So, I'm going to go out on a limb with Nathan and say, "Why not?"
Punk, submission, Rd. 2
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne
Steven Rondina
Werdum and Browne haven't changed much since their first fight, and Werdum won that pretty easily. Unless Browne can break off an early KO, Werdum should be able to post three solid rounds and take a decision.
Werdum, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I'm just not sold on Browne being an elite heavyweight. He has power, but he doesn't have anything else that can truly oust Werdum. He's got the proverbial puncher's chance. Werdum gets him to the fence, to the ground and to the loss column.
Werdum, submission, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Werdum has already beaten Brown up for 25 minutes. Another 15 are on the way.
Werdum, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
The Summer of Travis continues unabated. After getting pulpified in July by Cain Velasquez, Browne will now get pretzel-knotted by one of the best jiu-jitsu players in the world.
Werdum, submission, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
I'm with Nathan again; Browne has never struck me as particularly skilled or adept, despite victories over some impressive names—including Alistair Overeem. While he may be powerful enough to drop an opponent with a perfectly timed strike, Werdum would be a fool if he weren't more cautious coming off a fast knock-out title loss to Stipe Miocic. Browne hasn't lost by submission yet, but I doubt it's from any real grappling prowess. That will change. The lack of submission losses, not his grappling prowess.
Werdum, submission, Rd. 1
Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Steven Rondina
This one is so incredibly tough to pick. Overeem is a downright scary fighter at times, but his soft chin and inconsistency make it tough to buy into him in any big way. Miocic isn't exceptionally good in any area, but he's so fundamentally sound all over that he can hang with anyone anywhere. Miocic gets my nod, though, based on his edge in wrestling (and the potentially home-cooked judges' decision).
Miocic, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
It's an exceptional fight mostly due to the improvements Overeem has made tactically since joining Greg Jackson and company in New Mexico. With that said, I'll still side with the champion. The tempo of the fight will get to Overeem and allow Miocic to start piling up the strikes in the second. The referee will have to save Overeem.
Miocic, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Overeem has demonstrated some tactical improvements lately, but I'm more than sold on Miocic. I anticipate that Saturday will mark the first of multiple defenses for the champion, who just continues to get better every time he competes.
Miocic, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
We'll see in short order if Miocic has been quaffing too much of that Cleveland lake water since he won the title. Here's guessing he hasn't. His boxing and his defensive wrestling will keep him up and keep him firing. Overeem's chin has seen better days.
Miocic, KO, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
Overeem always seems so gigantic. I find myself potentially swayed by mountainous men like Overeem and Lesnar, but let's also remember that Miocic managed to finish Mark Hunt with a TKO. That's a serious feat. With 17 fights under his belt, Miocic is comfortable in the cage and, I'm guessing, fresher than Overeem. 56 fights is nuts, right? Overeem has been on a streak lately with four consecutive wins, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything if your next opponent is Miocic.
Miocic, TKO, Rd. 2
UFC 203 Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive
135lbs- #10 JESSICA EYE (11-5-0) vs #11 BETHE CORREIA (9-2-0)
Finishing off the UFC 203 preliminary card will be a Women’s Bantamweight bout between Top 15 ranked fighters Bethe “Pitbull” Correia and Jessica “Evil” Eye. Eye most recently dropped a decision to Sara McMann and has lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Correia suffered the first defeat of her pro career against former divisional champion Ronda Rousey and then lost her follow-up bout to surging Raquel Pennington.
The former title challenger will give up an inch of height and 2 inches of reach to her opponent. Eye is the younger fighter by 3 years.
Eye has a decision heavy-record, going to the scorecards 11-times in her career, winning 7-times. Jessica doesn’t have a tonne of power, but her best performance came in her Doctor stoppage TKO over Leslie Smith. She came out aggressive, using her footwork to move into firing range and then good head movement to avoid her opponent in close. She routinely slipped her head off line and then cracked Smith with a solid right hand. The right can also come as a counter. “Evil” Eye will pump her left jab and finish her combos with quick low kicks. She is primarily a high volume striker, averaging 3.53 SLpM. While her stats aren’t overwhelming, her output in fights against ground-based opponents have served to lower her average. Eye has had issues defending her opponent’s TDA’s and struggled once she was put on her back. After her foe is able to establish the threat of a takedown, Eye’s vertical output drops off noticeably.
In Eye’s 2-fights devoid of a completed takedown by her opponent, she connected on 145-significant strikes. In her 4 UFC losses, totaling 8 TDs- she landed just 143 strikes. An average drop off of almost 37-strikes per fight.
The Brazilian also has a decision heavy record, currently holding a 7-1 mark in fights that reach the scorecards. Correia’s loss to Pennington was a split decision. She began her UFC run with a trio of wins leading to a title shot, but compared to Eye, Bethe’s quality of opposition hasn’t been as strong. She offers a high volume striking output, landing her UFC best 91-significant strikes against Jessamyn Duke. Outside of the Rousey loss, Bethe has never landed less than 65 strikes in a UFC fight. Against Duke, she found success backing Jessamyn to the cage and unloading with barrages. Bethe stopped Shayna Baszler in similar fashion. She likes to close the distance behind her strikes and then dirty box on the inside, landing short hooks and uppercuts. She will also mix in knees and elbows. At distance, Correia lacks hand speed. She will throw some decent low kicks and toss out a short left hand followed by a longer straight right.
A BJJ Purple belt, she has yet to record a submission win and has landed just a single takedown on 5 attempts inside the Octagon.
This bout will be mainly contested on the feet. At close range, both girls will let their hands go. Correia tends to be more of a brawler, which can leave her open to getting hit on the inside- but her barrages can also be difficult to deal with. Eye will oblige her in close, but she would be best suited to main a little distance. Jessica’s superior footwork and head movement will allow her to get in, strike, and slip out of range. Additionally, Eye’s jab and lateral movement will prevent Correia from closing the distance without taking damage. The lack of a wrestling threat from Bethe removes the biggest issue that Eye has had during her UFC losses. It will also make it easier for Jessica to sit down on her strikes, throw more frequently, and use more kicks. Eye puts together a comparable performance to her fight against Smith
my prediction is Jessica Eye to defeat Bethe Correia by decision.
155lbs- NIK LENTZ (28-7-2 1NC) vs MICHAEL MCBRIDE (8-1-0)
In the Lightweight division, Nik “The Carny” Lentz takes on late notice replacement Michael McBride. Lentz comes in off of a split decision victory over Danny Castillo, he has alternated wins and losses over his last 5 fights. McBride debuts in the Octagon on the strength of a 4-fight winning streak dating back to his 2013 loss to Emmanuel Sanchez.
McBride is replacing Mairbek Taisumov on roughly 2-weeks notice. At 6’1″, he is 5 inches taller than Lentz and will have a sizeable 8″ reach advantage. McBride is just 2 years younger, but will be at a significant experience disadvantage with just 9 pro bouts compared to 36 for Lentz.
Lentz has well-established himself as an effective top position wrestler. He averages 3.87 takedowns per fight, with a high-watermark of 10 completions in his win over Diego Nunes. He is a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and a BJJ Purple belt. Lentz is 10-3 in decisions, with 10 wins by submission and 6 more by knockout. While he did complete a trio of takedowns against Castillo, his wrestling attack was far more effect as a Featherweight; landing 30 takedowns over 10 Lightweight bouts compared to 24 completions over just 6 bouts at 145-pounds. Lentz does a decent job of breaking down his opponent from top position and he is also willing to attack from the clinch. Nik has been subbed twice in his career, most recently tapping to a guillotine at the hands of crafty ground fighter Charles Oliveira.
“The Carny” has made noticeable strides in his striking and will push the pace on the feet with a decent short range arsenal.
McBride enters the UFC off of a 10-month layoff. Outside of Bellator’s Sanchez, his record lacks any real quality opposition and there isn’t any footage of him available since 2014. All 8 of his pro wins have come by submission, including 3 by rear-nake choke. In his only Bellator appearance, he gave up an early takedown and spent the first half of the fight on his back. He was eventually able to work his way back to his feet, complete his own shot, move to mount, and eventually work his way to the choke position. The majority of his finishes are reliant on having the superior position, with little evidence of an active and dangerous guard. There isn’t a lot of footage of his striking available, but based on his record he will be looking to take this fight to the mat when possible.
McBride will have a length advantage over Lentz, but he is a large Lightweight and making 155 pounds on short notice could significantly drain his body.
Lentz is a battled-tested veteran who is a handful for just about anyone in the division. His wrestling heavy attack can be a lot to deal with especially for a fighter that is debuting on short notice with less then 10-fights of total cage experience. Additionally, Lentz is not easy to take down and his lower stature is going to make it difficult for McBride to make an effective level change. With Michael’s reliance on top position submissions, if he can’t take Lentz down his submission game will be a non-factor. The late notice factor is further compromised by McBride’s limit activity over the last 2-years and his minimal experience in fights lasting beyond the opening round. Lentz will find success with his wrestling both offensively and defensively, controlling where the fight takes place and outworking his opponent
my prediction is Nik Lentz to defeat Michael McBride by TKO
185lbs- BRAD TAVARES (13-4-0) vs CAIO MAGALHAES (9-2-0)
In the Middleweight division, Brad Tavares returns to action when he takes on Brazil’s Caio “Hellboy” Magalhaes. Tavares’s only win over his last 4-fights came against Nate Marquardt- during that span he has lost to Tim Boetsch, Yoel Romero, and Robert Whittaker. Magalhaes won 4 consecutive fights after an unsuccessful debut, but his winning streak came to a crashing halt against Josh Samman via submission.
Both fighters are returning to action off of prolonged layoffs. Tavares hasn’t fought in close to 16-months and Caio hasn’t made the walk in 14-months. Physically, they are near identical. Both men are 6’1″, Tavares will have a slight 1″ reach advantage, and is exactly 1 week older than Magalhaes.
“Hellboy” has fought over half of his 11-fight career inside the Octagon. A BJJ Black belt, he has a trio of submission victories, but he is coming off his first defeat via tap out. His wrestling numbers aren’t strong. After completing a trio of TDs over his first 2 UFC outings, he hasn’t landed one since. The Brazilian completes just 15% of his attempts. A decent top position player, he struggles working off his back and looked overmatched on the floor by Samman prior to tapping out. On the feet, he does have some power, but isn’t a fluid striker. Magalhaes likes to close the distance behind his punches and hammer away in close. His stoppage win over Trevor Smith was marred by several illegal blows to the back of Smith’s head. Similar to his takedown numbers, his striking output is underwhelming at 2.46 SLpM versus 2.67 SApM.
After getting submitted by Samman, Magalhaes spit blood in the faces of both Josh and John McCarthy. He was suspended for 6-months.
Tavares has been knocked out in each of his last 2 defeats. This certainly creates some concern about his ability to take a punch. He was clearly outclassing Boetsch before getting knocked out. Prior to his current slump he was developing and melding together a strong kickboxing attack and serviceable wrestling game. Employing a stiff kicking arsenal, he will batter his adversary’s legs along with attacking the body and head. He will use both the traditional round kick and mix in a switch kick as well. With his hands, he likes to lead with either a left jab or hook. He will vary his attack between single strikes and combinations, sometimes finishing with a low kick. If his opponent opts to press the action, look for Brad to slide back and throw a short counter right hook. Tavares has defended 74% of his opponent’s takedown attempts and has shown that he can go offensive with his own shot.
Tavares has completed 13 takedowns over his 8 UFC wins while giving up 10 over his 4 UFC losses. In his decision setback against Yoel Romero he was taken down 7-times.
With both men coming off prolonged layoffs it adds an element of unknown to how they will perform. Tavares appears to be the more likely fighter to have used the break to develop his game further. Magalhaes still offers a similar skill set to what he brought to his debut back in 2012. That being said the chin of Tavares is a major concern. Both of his knockouts came against heavy hitters, but the issue is that while he may be the more talented fighter- it won’t matter if he can’t take a punch. The American carries the superior work rate, with better technique, and variety. His cardio will also give him an advantage if the fight advances beyond the mid-way mark. Magalhaes has some power and will probably look to drag Brad into a wild exchange to give him the best chance to land. If he can get on top, Caio has the ability to both do damage and/or setup a submission- but against anyone less than the elite Tavares has been successful at stopping their takedowns. The thumping power of “Hellboy” will be a concern, but Tavares should have the edge everywhere else
my prediction is Brad Tavares to defeat Caio Magalhaes by Decision.
170lbs- YANCY MEDEIROS (12-4-0 1NC) vs SEAN SPENCER (12-5-0)
In the Fight Pass headliner, Sean Spencer takes on Yancy Medeiros in the Welterweight division. Spencer is coming off a loss to Mike Pyle and has just a single victory over his last 4 Octagon appearances. Medeiros dropped an entertaining bout with Francisco Trinaldo at UFC 198 after winning a controversial split decision victory over John Makdessi.
Medeiros is moving up to Welterweight after competing as a Lightweight in the UFC. He had fought at 185-pounds earlier in his career. Both men are 5’10”, share a 75″ reach, and are the same age.
Spencer is returning after first knockout loss of his career. He is primarily a high volume striker, averaging 4.32 SLpM- including 105 significant strikes in his win over Drew Dober. Offensively, he builds his attack off of a spearing left jab. Sean will double it up to help close distance and then fire a hard right hand behind it. He possesses good footwork and head movement, and while he doesn’t use a lot of kicks he will target the body with his punches. Spencer doesn’t have a tonne of power, but he has hurt opponents during exchanges. At 4.08 SApM, he gets hit a lot and has given up 60+ significant strikes on 5 different occasions. Pyle hurt with him a short right hand and eventually overwhelmed him in the final round.
Spencer has solid TDD (68%), but has given up 17-takedowns over his 4 UFC bouts compared to just 1 in his trio of victories.
Like his opponent, Mederios does the majority of his work on the feet. That being said, he does a have a pair of UFC submission wins. Yancy lacks a legit wrestling threat, having yet to complete a takedown over 8 UFC outings. With 6 wins by knockout, not including his overturned victory against Yves Edwards- Yancy has decent pop in his strikes. He is a long striker, firing out a left jab and hard right hand. He will also target the body and hurt Joe Proctor with a perfectly time turning side kick. Mederios augments his boxing with a decent kicking repertoire- highlighted by a hard front kick to the body. Yancy was violently knocked out by Dustin Poirier and Trinaldo hurt him on multiple occasions. He appears to be vulnerable to the body if his opponent can connect with power.
Yancy currently carries a -0.95 striking exchange rate, getting tagged 5.05 times per minute. He is coming off of his 2 best offensive outputs with a combined 131 significant strikes landed, but he also gave up an astounding 231 connections over the same 2 bouts.
The Hawaii-born Mederios returned to his homeland to train for his last fight, but has spent a lot of time working with the Diaz brothers. He should benefit from not having to cut down to Lightweight, but he will lose out on the size and length advantages he enjoyed against smaller opposition. Spencer’s success has largely hinged on his defensive wrestling. While he is able to get up, if his opponent takes him down with regularity he struggles to make up for it with his vertical offense. The lack of a legit wrestling threat from his opponent should allow him to open up on the feet. The power edge lies with Mederios, but the volume favours Spencer. Yancy gets hit a lot and has issues getting his hands back in defensive position after attacking- this makes him vulnerable against a quicker striker. Spencer needs to avoid giving up the big moments, but he will find success routinely beating Mederios to the punch
my prediction is Sean Spencer to defeat Yancy Mederios by decision.
205lbs- CB DOLLAWAY (16-9-0) vs FRANCIMAR BARROSO (18-5-0)
“The Doberman” CB Dollaway moves to the Light Heavyweight division to take on Brazil’s Francimar “Bodao” Barroso. Dollaway is winless in his last 3 bouts, suffering knockout losses to Nate Marquardt and Lyoto Machida with a decision defeat against Middleweight champion Michael Bisping sandwiched in the middle. Barroso’s 2-fight winning streak was snapped by Nikita Krylov- he is 3-2 in the UFC.
Despite moving up from the Middleweight division, CB will be an inch taller than his opponent and will have a 1″ reach advantage. The American is 3-years younger.
A product of Nova Uniao, Barroso has finished 14 opponents (8 T/KOs and 4 submissions)- none in the UFC. He is 4-1 on the scorecards, despite lacking strong offensive stats. The Brazilian averages just 2.82 SLpM compared to 2.85 SApM, while completing less than 2 takedowns per fight at an 18% completion rate. He will deploy a decent body kick, but throws primarily single strikes and tends to let his opponent control the pace of the fight. At short range, Francimar will clinch up and grind his opponent into the cage. When he does try to take his opponent to the mat it usually comes via body lock and trip combinations. His top control time has been a key to his victories, but he is far more focussed on maintaining control over doing damage. He expended a lot of energy trying to put Krylov on the mat and eventually spent some time on his back. He attacked from his guard, but had minimal success.
Similar to his offensive stats, his lack of strong cardio runs counterintuitive to his success in decisions. He has slowed down in longer fights and his offense and technique will suffer as a result.
A former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and BJJ Purple belt, the ground game has been a key aspect of CB’s success. During a 5-fight stretch, where he compiled a 4-1 record (he should have been 5-0), he completed 12 takedowns. Dollaway has a solid top game and is a submission threat if the opportunity presents itself. Along with an increased wrestling presence, Dollaway also showed sizeable improvement in his striking. He finished Cezar Ferreira with a well-timed counter right hand and mixes in a nice check left hook. He will also work in his kicking game to help diversify his offense. Look for CB to throw hard kicks to the legs and body. Against Marquardt, he found success early landing hard kicks to the body and then closing the gap to throw heavy flurries along the cage. Where he ran into trouble was in middle frame when he rushed forward looking to attack and got knocked out. Dollaway has been knocked out 4-times in his career.
During Dollaway’s TUF 7 tournament run he was submitted in the semi-finals by Amir Sadollah and then after the other finalist withdrew, CB was again subbed by Sadollah in the finals.
Dollaway won’t have the size advantage he enjoyed at Middleweight, but he should have a slight speed edge and cutting less weight could improve his durability. Barroso can be a frustrating fighter. He lacks the type of work rate to clearly outwork his opponent, but he has a tendency to lull his opponent into a similar low output daze. Dollaway is the more technically sound striker and his wrestling should allow him to nullify Barosso’s takedown attempts and possibly complete his own. Francimar likes to load up on his strikes, which can make him easier to defend against. It can also test the chin and overall durability of Dollaway, which has been one of his downfalls. The American will out work Barroso, landing both the cleaner and more frequent strikes. As Francimar starts to slow down, Dollaway should find success with his wrestling and score crucial takedowns to help solidify the fight
my prediction is CB Dollaway to defeat Francimar Barroso by decision.
155lbs- DREW DOBER (16-7-0 1NC) vs JASON GONZALEZ (10-2-0)
In the first fight of the night, Drew Dober welcomes Jason Gonzalez to the Octagon in the Lightweight division. Dober defeated Scott Holtzman at UFC 195 for his second UFC victory. Gonzalez has won 6 straight bouts, including a 4-0 run under the Gladiator Challenge banner.
Gonzalez is 6 inches taller, will have a 6″ reach advantage along with being 2-years younger than Dober. He is stepping in on roughly 1-months notice to replace Erik Koch.
A durable fighter, Dober has been finished just twice in his 24-fight career. Despite coming from a striking background, Drew is a BJJ Purple belt and has 9 wins by submission on his record. He subbed Jamie Varner in late 2014 via RNC, but 3 of his submission wins came due to strikes. Dober showed a considerable deviation to his traditional game plan versus Holtzman by landing 5 takedowns- he completed zero through his previous 5 UFC bouts. Drew took his adversary from the clinch and shoot from the outside. On the feet, he has averaged 3.12 SLpM, compared to 4.02 SApM. He will willingly stand in the pocket and trade, but he lacks legit knockout power. He is an even 5-5 on the scorecards which indicates that he has traditionally struggled to separate himself from his adversary when he can’t get the finish. His inclusion of takedowns against Holtzman shows his willingness to add more tools to help pick up points in a close fight.
Dober was scheduled to face Islam Makhachev in April, but after the weigh-ins Makhachev was pulled from the fight for a potential anti-doping violation.
Gonzalez brings a record with a 100% finishing rate on both sides of the ledger. His 10-career victories consist of 6 knockouts and 4 submissions. Jason has also lost once each by tap and knockout. He has 6 opening round victories, fighting beyond the first frame just once in his last 7-fights. During footage from earlier in his career, Gonzalez came out aggressive with hard combinations, mixing in knees to the body when his foe tried to clinch up, and eventually locking up a triangle off his back for the win. He unsuccessfully attempted a similar sub in the opening round of the TUF tourney, adding in some hard elbows off of his back. On the feet, he will throw a hard high kick, mix in some leg kicks, and he finished his adversary with a with knee to the body. His punches are long and pack some heat, sharing some baseline similarities to Tony Ferguson. The undoing of his TUF run came when his TDD faltered and he spent large portions of the fight on his back.
Jason competed on the 22nd season of the Ultimate Fighter representing the USA for Team Urijah Faber. He gained entry to the house with an opening round knockout, but fell in the elimination round viadecisionn.
Gonzalez has had issues with his TDD in the past and that could be an area that Dober looks to exploit. Jason is active off his back, but if he can’t get the finish he is losing the position. While Dober’s wrestling looked good in his last fight, he is going to need to find a way past the offense of his opponent without getting dragged into a slugfest. Dober will have a sizeable reach and length disadvantage to overcome when standing with Gonzalez. With a stout chin, he is more than willing to eat a punch to land one, and carries a -0.9 striking exchange rate as a result. Look for Gonzalez to come out aggressive, but if he isn’t able to get the finish he will start to fade. It’s a close fight early, but Dober holds his own on the feet and controls top position at key moments in the fight
my prediction is Drew Dober to defeat Jason Gonzalez by decision.
from Kamikaze Overdrive
135lbs- #10 JESSICA EYE (11-5-0) vs #11 BETHE CORREIA (9-2-0)
Finishing off the UFC 203 preliminary card will be a Women’s Bantamweight bout between Top 15 ranked fighters Bethe “Pitbull” Correia and Jessica “Evil” Eye. Eye most recently dropped a decision to Sara McMann and has lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Correia suffered the first defeat of her pro career against former divisional champion Ronda Rousey and then lost her follow-up bout to surging Raquel Pennington.
The former title challenger will give up an inch of height and 2 inches of reach to her opponent. Eye is the younger fighter by 3 years.
Eye has a decision heavy-record, going to the scorecards 11-times in her career, winning 7-times. Jessica doesn’t have a tonne of power, but her best performance came in her Doctor stoppage TKO over Leslie Smith. She came out aggressive, using her footwork to move into firing range and then good head movement to avoid her opponent in close. She routinely slipped her head off line and then cracked Smith with a solid right hand. The right can also come as a counter. “Evil” Eye will pump her left jab and finish her combos with quick low kicks. She is primarily a high volume striker, averaging 3.53 SLpM. While her stats aren’t overwhelming, her output in fights against ground-based opponents have served to lower her average. Eye has had issues defending her opponent’s TDA’s and struggled once she was put on her back. After her foe is able to establish the threat of a takedown, Eye’s vertical output drops off noticeably.
In Eye’s 2-fights devoid of a completed takedown by her opponent, she connected on 145-significant strikes. In her 4 UFC losses, totaling 8 TDs- she landed just 143 strikes. An average drop off of almost 37-strikes per fight.
The Brazilian also has a decision heavy record, currently holding a 7-1 mark in fights that reach the scorecards. Correia’s loss to Pennington was a split decision. She began her UFC run with a trio of wins leading to a title shot, but compared to Eye, Bethe’s quality of opposition hasn’t been as strong. She offers a high volume striking output, landing her UFC best 91-significant strikes against Jessamyn Duke. Outside of the Rousey loss, Bethe has never landed less than 65 strikes in a UFC fight. Against Duke, she found success backing Jessamyn to the cage and unloading with barrages. Bethe stopped Shayna Baszler in similar fashion. She likes to close the distance behind her strikes and then dirty box on the inside, landing short hooks and uppercuts. She will also mix in knees and elbows. At distance, Correia lacks hand speed. She will throw some decent low kicks and toss out a short left hand followed by a longer straight right.
A BJJ Purple belt, she has yet to record a submission win and has landed just a single takedown on 5 attempts inside the Octagon.
This bout will be mainly contested on the feet. At close range, both girls will let their hands go. Correia tends to be more of a brawler, which can leave her open to getting hit on the inside- but her barrages can also be difficult to deal with. Eye will oblige her in close, but she would be best suited to main a little distance. Jessica’s superior footwork and head movement will allow her to get in, strike, and slip out of range. Additionally, Eye’s jab and lateral movement will prevent Correia from closing the distance without taking damage. The lack of a wrestling threat from Bethe removes the biggest issue that Eye has had during her UFC losses. It will also make it easier for Jessica to sit down on her strikes, throw more frequently, and use more kicks. Eye puts together a comparable performance to her fight against Smith
my prediction is Jessica Eye to defeat Bethe Correia by decision.
155lbs- NIK LENTZ (28-7-2 1NC) vs MICHAEL MCBRIDE (8-1-0)
In the Lightweight division, Nik “The Carny” Lentz takes on late notice replacement Michael McBride. Lentz comes in off of a split decision victory over Danny Castillo, he has alternated wins and losses over his last 5 fights. McBride debuts in the Octagon on the strength of a 4-fight winning streak dating back to his 2013 loss to Emmanuel Sanchez.
McBride is replacing Mairbek Taisumov on roughly 2-weeks notice. At 6’1″, he is 5 inches taller than Lentz and will have a sizeable 8″ reach advantage. McBride is just 2 years younger, but will be at a significant experience disadvantage with just 9 pro bouts compared to 36 for Lentz.
Lentz has well-established himself as an effective top position wrestler. He averages 3.87 takedowns per fight, with a high-watermark of 10 completions in his win over Diego Nunes. He is a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and a BJJ Purple belt. Lentz is 10-3 in decisions, with 10 wins by submission and 6 more by knockout. While he did complete a trio of takedowns against Castillo, his wrestling attack was far more effect as a Featherweight; landing 30 takedowns over 10 Lightweight bouts compared to 24 completions over just 6 bouts at 145-pounds. Lentz does a decent job of breaking down his opponent from top position and he is also willing to attack from the clinch. Nik has been subbed twice in his career, most recently tapping to a guillotine at the hands of crafty ground fighter Charles Oliveira.
“The Carny” has made noticeable strides in his striking and will push the pace on the feet with a decent short range arsenal.
McBride enters the UFC off of a 10-month layoff. Outside of Bellator’s Sanchez, his record lacks any real quality opposition and there isn’t any footage of him available since 2014. All 8 of his pro wins have come by submission, including 3 by rear-nake choke. In his only Bellator appearance, he gave up an early takedown and spent the first half of the fight on his back. He was eventually able to work his way back to his feet, complete his own shot, move to mount, and eventually work his way to the choke position. The majority of his finishes are reliant on having the superior position, with little evidence of an active and dangerous guard. There isn’t a lot of footage of his striking available, but based on his record he will be looking to take this fight to the mat when possible.
McBride will have a length advantage over Lentz, but he is a large Lightweight and making 155 pounds on short notice could significantly drain his body.
Lentz is a battled-tested veteran who is a handful for just about anyone in the division. His wrestling heavy attack can be a lot to deal with especially for a fighter that is debuting on short notice with less then 10-fights of total cage experience. Additionally, Lentz is not easy to take down and his lower stature is going to make it difficult for McBride to make an effective level change. With Michael’s reliance on top position submissions, if he can’t take Lentz down his submission game will be a non-factor. The late notice factor is further compromised by McBride’s limit activity over the last 2-years and his minimal experience in fights lasting beyond the opening round. Lentz will find success with his wrestling both offensively and defensively, controlling where the fight takes place and outworking his opponent
my prediction is Nik Lentz to defeat Michael McBride by TKO
185lbs- BRAD TAVARES (13-4-0) vs CAIO MAGALHAES (9-2-0)
In the Middleweight division, Brad Tavares returns to action when he takes on Brazil’s Caio “Hellboy” Magalhaes. Tavares’s only win over his last 4-fights came against Nate Marquardt- during that span he has lost to Tim Boetsch, Yoel Romero, and Robert Whittaker. Magalhaes won 4 consecutive fights after an unsuccessful debut, but his winning streak came to a crashing halt against Josh Samman via submission.
Both fighters are returning to action off of prolonged layoffs. Tavares hasn’t fought in close to 16-months and Caio hasn’t made the walk in 14-months. Physically, they are near identical. Both men are 6’1″, Tavares will have a slight 1″ reach advantage, and is exactly 1 week older than Magalhaes.
“Hellboy” has fought over half of his 11-fight career inside the Octagon. A BJJ Black belt, he has a trio of submission victories, but he is coming off his first defeat via tap out. His wrestling numbers aren’t strong. After completing a trio of TDs over his first 2 UFC outings, he hasn’t landed one since. The Brazilian completes just 15% of his attempts. A decent top position player, he struggles working off his back and looked overmatched on the floor by Samman prior to tapping out. On the feet, he does have some power, but isn’t a fluid striker. Magalhaes likes to close the distance behind his punches and hammer away in close. His stoppage win over Trevor Smith was marred by several illegal blows to the back of Smith’s head. Similar to his takedown numbers, his striking output is underwhelming at 2.46 SLpM versus 2.67 SApM.
After getting submitted by Samman, Magalhaes spit blood in the faces of both Josh and John McCarthy. He was suspended for 6-months.
Tavares has been knocked out in each of his last 2 defeats. This certainly creates some concern about his ability to take a punch. He was clearly outclassing Boetsch before getting knocked out. Prior to his current slump he was developing and melding together a strong kickboxing attack and serviceable wrestling game. Employing a stiff kicking arsenal, he will batter his adversary’s legs along with attacking the body and head. He will use both the traditional round kick and mix in a switch kick as well. With his hands, he likes to lead with either a left jab or hook. He will vary his attack between single strikes and combinations, sometimes finishing with a low kick. If his opponent opts to press the action, look for Brad to slide back and throw a short counter right hook. Tavares has defended 74% of his opponent’s takedown attempts and has shown that he can go offensive with his own shot.
Tavares has completed 13 takedowns over his 8 UFC wins while giving up 10 over his 4 UFC losses. In his decision setback against Yoel Romero he was taken down 7-times.
With both men coming off prolonged layoffs it adds an element of unknown to how they will perform. Tavares appears to be the more likely fighter to have used the break to develop his game further. Magalhaes still offers a similar skill set to what he brought to his debut back in 2012. That being said the chin of Tavares is a major concern. Both of his knockouts came against heavy hitters, but the issue is that while he may be the more talented fighter- it won’t matter if he can’t take a punch. The American carries the superior work rate, with better technique, and variety. His cardio will also give him an advantage if the fight advances beyond the mid-way mark. Magalhaes has some power and will probably look to drag Brad into a wild exchange to give him the best chance to land. If he can get on top, Caio has the ability to both do damage and/or setup a submission- but against anyone less than the elite Tavares has been successful at stopping their takedowns. The thumping power of “Hellboy” will be a concern, but Tavares should have the edge everywhere else
my prediction is Brad Tavares to defeat Caio Magalhaes by Decision.
170lbs- YANCY MEDEIROS (12-4-0 1NC) vs SEAN SPENCER (12-5-0)
In the Fight Pass headliner, Sean Spencer takes on Yancy Medeiros in the Welterweight division. Spencer is coming off a loss to Mike Pyle and has just a single victory over his last 4 Octagon appearances. Medeiros dropped an entertaining bout with Francisco Trinaldo at UFC 198 after winning a controversial split decision victory over John Makdessi.
Medeiros is moving up to Welterweight after competing as a Lightweight in the UFC. He had fought at 185-pounds earlier in his career. Both men are 5’10”, share a 75″ reach, and are the same age.
Spencer is returning after first knockout loss of his career. He is primarily a high volume striker, averaging 4.32 SLpM- including 105 significant strikes in his win over Drew Dober. Offensively, he builds his attack off of a spearing left jab. Sean will double it up to help close distance and then fire a hard right hand behind it. He possesses good footwork and head movement, and while he doesn’t use a lot of kicks he will target the body with his punches. Spencer doesn’t have a tonne of power, but he has hurt opponents during exchanges. At 4.08 SApM, he gets hit a lot and has given up 60+ significant strikes on 5 different occasions. Pyle hurt with him a short right hand and eventually overwhelmed him in the final round.
Spencer has solid TDD (68%), but has given up 17-takedowns over his 4 UFC bouts compared to just 1 in his trio of victories.
Like his opponent, Mederios does the majority of his work on the feet. That being said, he does a have a pair of UFC submission wins. Yancy lacks a legit wrestling threat, having yet to complete a takedown over 8 UFC outings. With 6 wins by knockout, not including his overturned victory against Yves Edwards- Yancy has decent pop in his strikes. He is a long striker, firing out a left jab and hard right hand. He will also target the body and hurt Joe Proctor with a perfectly time turning side kick. Mederios augments his boxing with a decent kicking repertoire- highlighted by a hard front kick to the body. Yancy was violently knocked out by Dustin Poirier and Trinaldo hurt him on multiple occasions. He appears to be vulnerable to the body if his opponent can connect with power.
Yancy currently carries a -0.95 striking exchange rate, getting tagged 5.05 times per minute. He is coming off of his 2 best offensive outputs with a combined 131 significant strikes landed, but he also gave up an astounding 231 connections over the same 2 bouts.
The Hawaii-born Mederios returned to his homeland to train for his last fight, but has spent a lot of time working with the Diaz brothers. He should benefit from not having to cut down to Lightweight, but he will lose out on the size and length advantages he enjoyed against smaller opposition. Spencer’s success has largely hinged on his defensive wrestling. While he is able to get up, if his opponent takes him down with regularity he struggles to make up for it with his vertical offense. The lack of a legit wrestling threat from his opponent should allow him to open up on the feet. The power edge lies with Mederios, but the volume favours Spencer. Yancy gets hit a lot and has issues getting his hands back in defensive position after attacking- this makes him vulnerable against a quicker striker. Spencer needs to avoid giving up the big moments, but he will find success routinely beating Mederios to the punch
my prediction is Sean Spencer to defeat Yancy Mederios by decision.
205lbs- CB DOLLAWAY (16-9-0) vs FRANCIMAR BARROSO (18-5-0)
“The Doberman” CB Dollaway moves to the Light Heavyweight division to take on Brazil’s Francimar “Bodao” Barroso. Dollaway is winless in his last 3 bouts, suffering knockout losses to Nate Marquardt and Lyoto Machida with a decision defeat against Middleweight champion Michael Bisping sandwiched in the middle. Barroso’s 2-fight winning streak was snapped by Nikita Krylov- he is 3-2 in the UFC.
Despite moving up from the Middleweight division, CB will be an inch taller than his opponent and will have a 1″ reach advantage. The American is 3-years younger.
A product of Nova Uniao, Barroso has finished 14 opponents (8 T/KOs and 4 submissions)- none in the UFC. He is 4-1 on the scorecards, despite lacking strong offensive stats. The Brazilian averages just 2.82 SLpM compared to 2.85 SApM, while completing less than 2 takedowns per fight at an 18% completion rate. He will deploy a decent body kick, but throws primarily single strikes and tends to let his opponent control the pace of the fight. At short range, Francimar will clinch up and grind his opponent into the cage. When he does try to take his opponent to the mat it usually comes via body lock and trip combinations. His top control time has been a key to his victories, but he is far more focussed on maintaining control over doing damage. He expended a lot of energy trying to put Krylov on the mat and eventually spent some time on his back. He attacked from his guard, but had minimal success.
Similar to his offensive stats, his lack of strong cardio runs counterintuitive to his success in decisions. He has slowed down in longer fights and his offense and technique will suffer as a result.
A former NCAA Division 1 wrestler and BJJ Purple belt, the ground game has been a key aspect of CB’s success. During a 5-fight stretch, where he compiled a 4-1 record (he should have been 5-0), he completed 12 takedowns. Dollaway has a solid top game and is a submission threat if the opportunity presents itself. Along with an increased wrestling presence, Dollaway also showed sizeable improvement in his striking. He finished Cezar Ferreira with a well-timed counter right hand and mixes in a nice check left hook. He will also work in his kicking game to help diversify his offense. Look for CB to throw hard kicks to the legs and body. Against Marquardt, he found success early landing hard kicks to the body and then closing the gap to throw heavy flurries along the cage. Where he ran into trouble was in middle frame when he rushed forward looking to attack and got knocked out. Dollaway has been knocked out 4-times in his career.
During Dollaway’s TUF 7 tournament run he was submitted in the semi-finals by Amir Sadollah and then after the other finalist withdrew, CB was again subbed by Sadollah in the finals.
Dollaway won’t have the size advantage he enjoyed at Middleweight, but he should have a slight speed edge and cutting less weight could improve his durability. Barroso can be a frustrating fighter. He lacks the type of work rate to clearly outwork his opponent, but he has a tendency to lull his opponent into a similar low output daze. Dollaway is the more technically sound striker and his wrestling should allow him to nullify Barosso’s takedown attempts and possibly complete his own. Francimar likes to load up on his strikes, which can make him easier to defend against. It can also test the chin and overall durability of Dollaway, which has been one of his downfalls. The American will out work Barroso, landing both the cleaner and more frequent strikes. As Francimar starts to slow down, Dollaway should find success with his wrestling and score crucial takedowns to help solidify the fight
my prediction is CB Dollaway to defeat Francimar Barroso by decision.
155lbs- DREW DOBER (16-7-0 1NC) vs JASON GONZALEZ (10-2-0)
In the first fight of the night, Drew Dober welcomes Jason Gonzalez to the Octagon in the Lightweight division. Dober defeated Scott Holtzman at UFC 195 for his second UFC victory. Gonzalez has won 6 straight bouts, including a 4-0 run under the Gladiator Challenge banner.
Gonzalez is 6 inches taller, will have a 6″ reach advantage along with being 2-years younger than Dober. He is stepping in on roughly 1-months notice to replace Erik Koch.
A durable fighter, Dober has been finished just twice in his 24-fight career. Despite coming from a striking background, Drew is a BJJ Purple belt and has 9 wins by submission on his record. He subbed Jamie Varner in late 2014 via RNC, but 3 of his submission wins came due to strikes. Dober showed a considerable deviation to his traditional game plan versus Holtzman by landing 5 takedowns- he completed zero through his previous 5 UFC bouts. Drew took his adversary from the clinch and shoot from the outside. On the feet, he has averaged 3.12 SLpM, compared to 4.02 SApM. He will willingly stand in the pocket and trade, but he lacks legit knockout power. He is an even 5-5 on the scorecards which indicates that he has traditionally struggled to separate himself from his adversary when he can’t get the finish. His inclusion of takedowns against Holtzman shows his willingness to add more tools to help pick up points in a close fight.
Dober was scheduled to face Islam Makhachev in April, but after the weigh-ins Makhachev was pulled from the fight for a potential anti-doping violation.
Gonzalez brings a record with a 100% finishing rate on both sides of the ledger. His 10-career victories consist of 6 knockouts and 4 submissions. Jason has also lost once each by tap and knockout. He has 6 opening round victories, fighting beyond the first frame just once in his last 7-fights. During footage from earlier in his career, Gonzalez came out aggressive with hard combinations, mixing in knees to the body when his foe tried to clinch up, and eventually locking up a triangle off his back for the win. He unsuccessfully attempted a similar sub in the opening round of the TUF tourney, adding in some hard elbows off of his back. On the feet, he will throw a hard high kick, mix in some leg kicks, and he finished his adversary with a with knee to the body. His punches are long and pack some heat, sharing some baseline similarities to Tony Ferguson. The undoing of his TUF run came when his TDD faltered and he spent large portions of the fight on his back.
Jason competed on the 22nd season of the Ultimate Fighter representing the USA for Team Urijah Faber. He gained entry to the house with an opening round knockout, but fell in the elimination round viadecisionn.
Gonzalez has had issues with his TDD in the past and that could be an area that Dober looks to exploit. Jason is active off his back, but if he can’t get the finish he is losing the position. While Dober’s wrestling looked good in his last fight, he is going to need to find a way past the offense of his opponent without getting dragged into a slugfest. Dober will have a sizeable reach and length disadvantage to overcome when standing with Gonzalez. With a stout chin, he is more than willing to eat a punch to land one, and carries a -0.9 striking exchange rate as a result. Look for Gonzalez to come out aggressive, but if he isn’t able to get the finish he will start to fade. It’s a close fight early, but Dober holds his own on the feet and controls top position at key moments in the fight
my prediction is Drew Dober to defeat Jason Gonzalez by decision.
UFC 203 Predictions
from Brett Okamoto - ESPN Staff Writer
Stipe Miocic (15-2) vs. Alistair Overeem (41-14)
Time flies, doesn't it? We are now five years and 10 fights into Overeem's career in the UFC, and the truth is: He has thoroughly dominated his opposition. But in the rare moments things have gone bad for Overeem, they have gone spectacularly bad.
There's a good chance that trend continues in Cleveland. Generally speaking, this isn't a bad matchup for Overeem. Miocic is a capable boxer with a power right hand, is an above-average wrestler and a mentally composed champ -- but it's hard to find an area where he holds a sizable technical advantage. If we're looking at straight-up skill in hand-to-hand combat, Overeem gets the nod. He's the far more experienced of the two and just brings a much more versatile playbook into the Octagon than Miocic.
But similar observations could have been made before every one of the three UFC fights Overeem lost. In a 25-minute fight, Overeem is always at risk for one of those aforementioned "bad moments." And those have typically occurred after he has gassed himself out.
Miocic is a definite threat in terms of simply outlasting Overeem. He's extremely durable, which he needs to be, as there's a good amount of risk in his pressure-oriented style. He prefers to be the one in charge, pressing forward behind the jab and the left hook, maintaining that boxing range and creating windows to throw the hammer -- his right hand. He has the wrestling shot at his disposal, but in the past and particularly in this matchup, the threat of that shot might be more effective than the shot itself. In other words, it's unlikely Miocic will wrestle his way to his first title defense, but the constant threat of him getting a takedown adds a layer to this standup fight.
When Overeem fought another boxer-based striker in former champ Junior dos Santos, he all but shut down the Brazilian's forward movement with circular movement and constant, constant feints. Overeem's feints were so intelligent and effective in that matchup that dos Santos' pace slowed to a boo-inducing crawl; he was eventually reacting so much to every movement that it was almost easy for Overeem, who is terrific at misdirection, to set up whatever shots he wanted. Miocic can't fall victim to similar tactics, and based on his skill set, his best counter is likely to not react to the feints at all. Bell to bell, bully through them and get to that preferred boxing range.
As notoriously dangerous as Overeem's clinch striking is, it's an area Miocic probably can't shy away from. There aren't many tools in MMA as intimidating as Overeem knees, but in order for Miocic to cut off the cage and consistently get in Overeem's face like he needs to, he has to be prepared for the clinch. The good news is that as the fight progresses, that clinch should favor him more and more based on his cardio. Given Overeem's history in the UFC, even if Miocic loses rounds early, he'll still be in a strong position to finish later on provided he is surviving and forcing Overeem to work.
One thing to really watch is how Overeem attacks the lower body. Those side kicks to the lead leg, a staple of Jackson-Wink MMA, could be very effective in breaking the pace Miocic wants to set. Front kicks to the body and, of course, the knees any time they lock up could essentially erase Miocic's cardio advantage. And if it all adds up to Miocic being unable (or unwilling) to keep up his aggression, Overeem will have stacked the deck in his favor.
Prediction: To be clear, there is a darn good chance Miocic sets Cleveland on fire with a one-punch, right-hand KO ... but my pick is the other way. Overeem via TKO, third round.
Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs. Travis Browne (18-4-1), heavyweight
Repeat of a fight from 2½ years back, a decision loss that remains Browne's worst night ever in the Octagon. Redemption? Crazy things happen at heavyweight, but odds are against it.
Prediction: Werdum, 30-27 decision.
CM Punk (0-0) vs. Mickey Gall (2-0), welterweight
Not a whole lot of information to base this prediction on. Punk is brand-new, as is Gall. At the very least, Gall looks the part of a young prospect with natural skill. Punk is 37 and coming off back surgery.
Prediction: Gall via rear-naked choke, first round. And bonus prediction: Punk does fight again.
Urijah Faber (33-9) vs. Jimmie Rivera (19-1), bantamweight
How many times has Faber been in this spot? Coming off a title loss, accepting a lesser known opponent in a potential "hangover" situation ... fourth time in four years we've been here! Faber has never suffered back-to-back losses, does it happen here?
Prediction: Rivera by decision.
from Brett Okamoto - ESPN Staff Writer
Stipe Miocic (15-2) vs. Alistair Overeem (41-14)
Time flies, doesn't it? We are now five years and 10 fights into Overeem's career in the UFC, and the truth is: He has thoroughly dominated his opposition. But in the rare moments things have gone bad for Overeem, they have gone spectacularly bad.
There's a good chance that trend continues in Cleveland. Generally speaking, this isn't a bad matchup for Overeem. Miocic is a capable boxer with a power right hand, is an above-average wrestler and a mentally composed champ -- but it's hard to find an area where he holds a sizable technical advantage. If we're looking at straight-up skill in hand-to-hand combat, Overeem gets the nod. He's the far more experienced of the two and just brings a much more versatile playbook into the Octagon than Miocic.
But similar observations could have been made before every one of the three UFC fights Overeem lost. In a 25-minute fight, Overeem is always at risk for one of those aforementioned "bad moments." And those have typically occurred after he has gassed himself out.
Miocic is a definite threat in terms of simply outlasting Overeem. He's extremely durable, which he needs to be, as there's a good amount of risk in his pressure-oriented style. He prefers to be the one in charge, pressing forward behind the jab and the left hook, maintaining that boxing range and creating windows to throw the hammer -- his right hand. He has the wrestling shot at his disposal, but in the past and particularly in this matchup, the threat of that shot might be more effective than the shot itself. In other words, it's unlikely Miocic will wrestle his way to his first title defense, but the constant threat of him getting a takedown adds a layer to this standup fight.
When Overeem fought another boxer-based striker in former champ Junior dos Santos, he all but shut down the Brazilian's forward movement with circular movement and constant, constant feints. Overeem's feints were so intelligent and effective in that matchup that dos Santos' pace slowed to a boo-inducing crawl; he was eventually reacting so much to every movement that it was almost easy for Overeem, who is terrific at misdirection, to set up whatever shots he wanted. Miocic can't fall victim to similar tactics, and based on his skill set, his best counter is likely to not react to the feints at all. Bell to bell, bully through them and get to that preferred boxing range.
As notoriously dangerous as Overeem's clinch striking is, it's an area Miocic probably can't shy away from. There aren't many tools in MMA as intimidating as Overeem knees, but in order for Miocic to cut off the cage and consistently get in Overeem's face like he needs to, he has to be prepared for the clinch. The good news is that as the fight progresses, that clinch should favor him more and more based on his cardio. Given Overeem's history in the UFC, even if Miocic loses rounds early, he'll still be in a strong position to finish later on provided he is surviving and forcing Overeem to work.
One thing to really watch is how Overeem attacks the lower body. Those side kicks to the lead leg, a staple of Jackson-Wink MMA, could be very effective in breaking the pace Miocic wants to set. Front kicks to the body and, of course, the knees any time they lock up could essentially erase Miocic's cardio advantage. And if it all adds up to Miocic being unable (or unwilling) to keep up his aggression, Overeem will have stacked the deck in his favor.
Prediction: To be clear, there is a darn good chance Miocic sets Cleveland on fire with a one-punch, right-hand KO ... but my pick is the other way. Overeem via TKO, third round.
Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs. Travis Browne (18-4-1), heavyweight
Repeat of a fight from 2½ years back, a decision loss that remains Browne's worst night ever in the Octagon. Redemption? Crazy things happen at heavyweight, but odds are against it.
Prediction: Werdum, 30-27 decision.
CM Punk (0-0) vs. Mickey Gall (2-0), welterweight
Not a whole lot of information to base this prediction on. Punk is brand-new, as is Gall. At the very least, Gall looks the part of a young prospect with natural skill. Punk is 37 and coming off back surgery.
Prediction: Gall via rear-naked choke, first round. And bonus prediction: Punk does fight again.
Urijah Faber (33-9) vs. Jimmie Rivera (19-1), bantamweight
How many times has Faber been in this spot? Coming off a title loss, accepting a lesser known opponent in a potential "hangover" situation ... fourth time in four years we've been here! Faber has never suffered back-to-back losses, does it happen here?
Prediction: Rivera by decision.
UFC 203 Selections
from Sean Sheehan - Severe MMA
FULL FIGHT PICKS
Miocic’s speed and output wins out
Werdum gets on top and chokes Browne out
Anything other than Gall in round 1 would be a shock
Faber via decision
Fun fight where Andrade gets the win
Correia
Lentz
Tavares
Medeiros
Dolloway
Dober
from Sean Sheehan - Severe MMA
FULL FIGHT PICKS
Miocic’s speed and output wins out
Werdum gets on top and chokes Browne out
Anything other than Gall in round 1 would be a shock
Faber via decision
Fun fight where Andrade gets the win
Correia
Lentz
Tavares
Medeiros
Dolloway
Dober
MMA Junkie Staff Picks
| MMAjunkie readers’ consensus picks 2016: 88-52 (63%) |
Miocic (52%) |
Werdum (81%) |
Gall (64%) |
Faber (74%) |
Calderwood (60%) |
| Ben Fowlkes @BenFowlkesMMA 2016: 92-48 (66%) |
Miocic |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Calderwood |
| Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 2016: 89-51 (64%) |
Miocic |
Browne |
Punk |
Faber |
Calderwood |
| Brent Brookhouse @BrentBrookhouse 2016: 89-51 (64%) |
Overeem |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Calderwood |
| Steven Marrocco @MMAjunkieSteven 2016: 88-52 (63%) |
Overeem |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Andrade |
| Dann Stupp @DannStupp 2016: 86-54 (61%) 
|
Miocic |
Werdum |
Gall |
Rivera |
Andrade |
| John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn 2016: 85-55 (61%) |
Overeem |
Werdum |
Gall |
Rivera |
Calderwood |
| Brian Garcia @thegoze 2016: 85-55 (61%) |
Miocic |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Andrade |
| Mike Bohn @MikeBohnMMA 2016: 85-55 (61%)
|
Overeem |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Andrade |
| George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 2016: 76-64 (54%) |
Miocic |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Andrade |
| Fernanda Prates @nandaprates_ 2016: 38-36 (51%) |
Miocic |
Werdum |
Gall |
Faber |
Andrade |
UFC 203
from Lyle Fitzsimmons - CBS Sports
How Miocic wins:
The American was a decorated wrestler in college, but he's earned his MMA chops based on what he can do with his fists. He's especially heavy-handed with punches -- as Werdum can testify -- takes a strong shot and has an enviably large energy reserve for long fights. Whether he can hurt Overeem while avoiding the incoming KO shots will determine if he's a one-and-done champ.
How Overeem wins:
The blistering of Lesnar may have given Overeem a bloated sense of his power, but the subsequent three losses prompted a refinement of his game. He's a more patient, calculated striker than the swarming Miocic, and, so long as he doesn't get clipped with a crazy shot -- a la Werdum -- he'll attempt to wear his man down with a prolonged series of powerful blows.
Prediction: Miocic enters as the champ, but the burden remains on him to seize control of the fight and dictate how it will be played out. The longer the two fighters are on their feet, the better it figures to look for the challenger -- particularly if he's able to play effective defense along the way and wear his man down with his hands.
The guess here is that Overeem will indeed take Miocic into deep waters and begin landing a bigger volume of meaningful shots in the fight's second half. As the punishment mounts, look for him to register a belt-seizing stoppage in Round 4.
from Lyle Fitzsimmons - CBS Sports
How Miocic wins:
The American was a decorated wrestler in college, but he's earned his MMA chops based on what he can do with his fists. He's especially heavy-handed with punches -- as Werdum can testify -- takes a strong shot and has an enviably large energy reserve for long fights. Whether he can hurt Overeem while avoiding the incoming KO shots will determine if he's a one-and-done champ.
How Overeem wins:
The blistering of Lesnar may have given Overeem a bloated sense of his power, but the subsequent three losses prompted a refinement of his game. He's a more patient, calculated striker than the swarming Miocic, and, so long as he doesn't get clipped with a crazy shot -- a la Werdum -- he'll attempt to wear his man down with a prolonged series of powerful blows.
Prediction: Miocic enters as the champ, but the burden remains on him to seize control of the fight and dictate how it will be played out. The longer the two fighters are on their feet, the better it figures to look for the challenger -- particularly if he's able to play effective defense along the way and wear his man down with his hands.
The guess here is that Overeem will indeed take Miocic into deep waters and begin landing a bigger volume of meaningful shots in the fight's second half. As the punishment mounts, look for him to register a belt-seizing stoppage in Round 4.
Bloody Elbow Staff Picks
Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Anton Tabuena: While Miocic is the better wrestler, I’m not sure if his pressure/cagework will be as successful against someone like Overeem who is so dangerous in the clinch. I also believe that while the first big punch can (will?) turn the tide, Overeem is the better overall striker here. Miocic could probably do well if he can box, avoid the early shots in the clinch, and go for takedowns to mix things up and open up Overeem’s defense. Stylistically though, I think this is a tough matchup for him. It can go either way, but I think Overeem is more likely to come out with the UFC belt (and add it to his already impressive collection).
Alistair Overeem by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Wow, I’m a tad surprised at the number of Overeem picks. I suppose it isn’t that surprising given this is a genuinely compelling fight and no one seems to want to successfully defend the heavyweight title even more than once. I’m really torn here. The Uberknees, kicking game, and body attacks of Overeem could break down Miocic’s durability pretty quickly. Miocic has great boxing on the counter and has developed into a consistent finisher. It’s up to Miocic to control the pace of this fight, and the longer it wears on, the more you have to go with the champion to defend his title. Also, Overeem has been great, but his reputation has being a little on the fragile side in terms of getting hit flush is well deserved and didn’t erase itself during the winning streak. If Overeem wins, it’ll be early, otherwise, Miocic takes this.
Stipe Miocic via TKO, round 3.
Victor Rodriguez: This is a bit complicated. While Overeem has hit a nice little stride here, he continues to hunt that one single KO killshot to win fights. On the other hand, Miocic has great combinations and timing, plus he’s probably the most dynamic all-around athlete in the heavyweight division. Overeem’s defense has gotten better, but I still can’t trust it. Sure, dos Santos is probably the still the one of the best boxers in his division (if not the best), and Overeem fought extra smart against him as well as against Arlovski - another feared striker that has good boxing offense. To replicate that aspect of those performances in this bout will be interesting, but mixing the boxing with wrestling and excellent cardio, I have to go with Miocic here. I don’t see Overeem doing well with the speed and Miocic pushing the pace and controlling the range as well as where the fight takes place.
Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO.
Eddie Mercado: You know what I kneed? I kneed to see Alistair Overeem win the UFC heavyweight title. Questionable chin/gas tank aside, the devastating knees of Overeem will be the great equalizer. Stipe Miocic has not faced an opponent who was willing, or sometimes able, to utilize knee strikes since Stefan Struve back in September of 2012.
And new! Alistair Overeem by TKO (Knees) Rd. 1.
Dayne Fox: I hate picking heavyweight title fights. I’m not going to try and break this down because both hit hard and can certainly put the other one down. My reason for picking Overeem? It’s the Year of Title Changes.
That’s about as scientific as I’m getting. Overeem via KO RD2
Zane Simon: The Overeem that fought Andrei Arlovski looked slower. He was still doing his very smart stick and move thing that he’s put together over the last couple years, but he was doing it with less speed and efficiency than before. The fact that he was fighting Andrei Arlovski, who himself has to be cautious about pace (and getting KO’d) meant that it didn’t really matter that Overeem didn’t look amazing. I think it matters here. Stipe (unlike a lot of heavyweights) actually does a very good job returning fire at opponents as they try and drop in on him. It’s what got him the win over Werdum. And unlike Arlovski, Stipe has never showed any real durability problems (aside from a funky KO loss to Struve). Against Roy Nelson, playing his new, safety-first style, Overeem still almost got lit up a few times. Against someone faster who can maintain his output better, I just don’t see Overeem lasting.
Stipe Miocic via KO, Round 2.
Staff picking Miocic: Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Overeem: Nick, Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Coffeen, Bissell
Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Anton Tabuena: While Miocic is the better wrestler, I’m not sure if his pressure/cagework will be as successful against someone like Overeem who is so dangerous in the clinch. I also believe that while the first big punch can (will?) turn the tide, Overeem is the better overall striker here. Miocic could probably do well if he can box, avoid the early shots in the clinch, and go for takedowns to mix things up and open up Overeem’s defense. Stylistically though, I think this is a tough matchup for him. It can go either way, but I think Overeem is more likely to come out with the UFC belt (and add it to his already impressive collection).
Alistair Overeem by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Wow, I’m a tad surprised at the number of Overeem picks. I suppose it isn’t that surprising given this is a genuinely compelling fight and no one seems to want to successfully defend the heavyweight title even more than once. I’m really torn here. The Uberknees, kicking game, and body attacks of Overeem could break down Miocic’s durability pretty quickly. Miocic has great boxing on the counter and has developed into a consistent finisher. It’s up to Miocic to control the pace of this fight, and the longer it wears on, the more you have to go with the champion to defend his title. Also, Overeem has been great, but his reputation has being a little on the fragile side in terms of getting hit flush is well deserved and didn’t erase itself during the winning streak. If Overeem wins, it’ll be early, otherwise, Miocic takes this.
Stipe Miocic via TKO, round 3.
Victor Rodriguez: This is a bit complicated. While Overeem has hit a nice little stride here, he continues to hunt that one single KO killshot to win fights. On the other hand, Miocic has great combinations and timing, plus he’s probably the most dynamic all-around athlete in the heavyweight division. Overeem’s defense has gotten better, but I still can’t trust it. Sure, dos Santos is probably the still the one of the best boxers in his division (if not the best), and Overeem fought extra smart against him as well as against Arlovski - another feared striker that has good boxing offense. To replicate that aspect of those performances in this bout will be interesting, but mixing the boxing with wrestling and excellent cardio, I have to go with Miocic here. I don’t see Overeem doing well with the speed and Miocic pushing the pace and controlling the range as well as where the fight takes place.
Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO.
Eddie Mercado: You know what I kneed? I kneed to see Alistair Overeem win the UFC heavyweight title. Questionable chin/gas tank aside, the devastating knees of Overeem will be the great equalizer. Stipe Miocic has not faced an opponent who was willing, or sometimes able, to utilize knee strikes since Stefan Struve back in September of 2012.
And new! Alistair Overeem by TKO (Knees) Rd. 1.
Dayne Fox: I hate picking heavyweight title fights. I’m not going to try and break this down because both hit hard and can certainly put the other one down. My reason for picking Overeem? It’s the Year of Title Changes.
That’s about as scientific as I’m getting. Overeem via KO RD2
Zane Simon: The Overeem that fought Andrei Arlovski looked slower. He was still doing his very smart stick and move thing that he’s put together over the last couple years, but he was doing it with less speed and efficiency than before. The fact that he was fighting Andrei Arlovski, who himself has to be cautious about pace (and getting KO’d) meant that it didn’t really matter that Overeem didn’t look amazing. I think it matters here. Stipe (unlike a lot of heavyweights) actually does a very good job returning fire at opponents as they try and drop in on him. It’s what got him the win over Werdum. And unlike Arlovski, Stipe has never showed any real durability problems (aside from a funky KO loss to Struve). Against Roy Nelson, playing his new, safety-first style, Overeem still almost got lit up a few times. Against someone faster who can maintain his output better, I just don’t see Overeem lasting.
Stipe Miocic via KO, Round 2.
Staff picking Miocic: Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Overeem: Nick, Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Coffeen, Bissell
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne
Anton Tabuena: They’re heavyweights, so anything can happen, but Werdum has already shown how far they are skillwise, even when playing to Browne’s strengths. Unless he gets careless or runs into punches again, this should be a similar bout.
Fabricio Werdum by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Yeah, short of Browne winning this early because heavyweights are weird that way (and Browne certainly has some big KOs on his record), there’s nothing to suggest the rematch is any better for Browne than the first fight was. The only difference is the beating will only last up to 15 minutes instead of 25.
Fabricio Werdum by submission, round 2.
Eddie: I remember the first time these guys fought. Browne hurt Werdum early but couldn’t put the Brazilian away leaving Hapa petered out for the rest of the bout. Somehow, Browne managed to last the entire 25 minutes. Now I’m not sure if that’s a testament to the toughness of Browne or if it says something about Werdum not being able to finish a gassed Hapa? If Werdum couldn’t finish in 5 then I can’t see him finishing in 3… Especially after the chin check he recieved from Stipe. I expect a respectful and cautious Werdum on the feet and do not see this ending in his favor.
Travis Browne by KO, Rd. 1.
Dayne: Werdum responded really well the last time he was embarrassed in the cage. Anyone remember his last loss before falling to Miocic? In Strikeforce as he fell to his back time and again inviting Overeem into his guard. He revamped a lot of things and it took him to the Pinnacle as UFC heavyweight champion. I think he got complacent wearing the gold and losing it should give him his edge back. Plus, do you really think a Travis Browne coached by Edmund Tarverdyan is going to take out an elite fighter?
Werdum via decision
Zane Simon: Browne could obviously win this. He hits stupid hard, he’s huge, and he has fast hands and reasonably fast feet. But moment to moment he’s all over the place technically. There’s no real rhyme or reason to what he does or when he does it. It’s the kind of style that can surprise a lot of people but isn’t actually great for winning fights over the run of a round.
Fabricio Werdum by decision.
Staff picking Werdum: Nick, Victor, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Browne: Eddie, Bissell
Anton Tabuena: They’re heavyweights, so anything can happen, but Werdum has already shown how far they are skillwise, even when playing to Browne’s strengths. Unless he gets careless or runs into punches again, this should be a similar bout.
Fabricio Werdum by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Yeah, short of Browne winning this early because heavyweights are weird that way (and Browne certainly has some big KOs on his record), there’s nothing to suggest the rematch is any better for Browne than the first fight was. The only difference is the beating will only last up to 15 minutes instead of 25.
Fabricio Werdum by submission, round 2.
Eddie: I remember the first time these guys fought. Browne hurt Werdum early but couldn’t put the Brazilian away leaving Hapa petered out for the rest of the bout. Somehow, Browne managed to last the entire 25 minutes. Now I’m not sure if that’s a testament to the toughness of Browne or if it says something about Werdum not being able to finish a gassed Hapa? If Werdum couldn’t finish in 5 then I can’t see him finishing in 3… Especially after the chin check he recieved from Stipe. I expect a respectful and cautious Werdum on the feet and do not see this ending in his favor.
Travis Browne by KO, Rd. 1.
Dayne: Werdum responded really well the last time he was embarrassed in the cage. Anyone remember his last loss before falling to Miocic? In Strikeforce as he fell to his back time and again inviting Overeem into his guard. He revamped a lot of things and it took him to the Pinnacle as UFC heavyweight champion. I think he got complacent wearing the gold and losing it should give him his edge back. Plus, do you really think a Travis Browne coached by Edmund Tarverdyan is going to take out an elite fighter?
Werdum via decision
Zane Simon: Browne could obviously win this. He hits stupid hard, he’s huge, and he has fast hands and reasonably fast feet. But moment to moment he’s all over the place technically. There’s no real rhyme or reason to what he does or when he does it. It’s the kind of style that can surprise a lot of people but isn’t actually great for winning fights over the run of a round.
Fabricio Werdum by decision.
Staff picking Werdum: Nick, Victor, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Browne: Eddie, Bissell
Mickey Gall vs. CM Punk
Anton Tabuena: He seems to have shown a lot of improvements since the early footage from his entry in Roufusport, but I’m not sure if that will be enough. Gall is much younger, faster, and way more experienced. He is also a BJJ brown belt who showed promise even against top grapplers. Not only is Punk having his very first fight ever, he is also having his very first weight cut. All the odds seem stacked against him, and I guess this is why I am really rooting for CM Punk to land something big on the feet. I doubt it happens though.
Mickey Gall by Submission.
Mookie Alexander: CM Punk isn’t going to win and there is quite frankly no need to dive deep into any sort of analysis.
Mickey Gall by whatever he wants, in no longer than 2.5 minutes.
Victor: Yeah, I’m the guy that wrote that thing. It seems that more than anything, the ramifications of the bout appear to be more interesting than the fight itself, seeing as there isn’t as much buzz as the UFC may have anticipated for a Brooks fight when he was first brought on board. Putting that aside, we’ve seen Brooks’ progression via the documentary series and saw the open workouts where he still looks clunky and stiff. Besides, Gall has actual experience with 3-0 as an amateur and 2-0 as a pro. Punk has a stiff European uppercut and specializes in ladder matches. You know what? Fuck it - I’m going with Team Chaos and picking Punk. Gall could be coming into this a bit too confident and get dropped by those hands. Yes, Gall looked great holding his own against eventual dark horse EBI tournament winner Gordon Goddamn Ryan. I don’t care. Let’s just hope Punk walks in to Cult of Personality to really spoil the party for the haters.
Phil Brooks by TKO
Eddie: So, I suppose it’s time for this to go down. I think CM Punk and Mickey Gall are getting an opportunity that a lot of people could only dream of. Are they deserving? Mickey Gall isn’t exactly sure and neither am I. I really hope CM Punk brings something of value to the ocatagon aside from eyeballs, whether it be in heart, skill, or hopefully both. I pray this isn’t Randy Couture vs. James Toney II and that somehow this match will morph into a competitive display of grit and determination that the crowd can get behind. If Forrest were here, Gump not Griffin, he would say that this fight is like a box of chocolates.
Mickey Gall by Disqualification due to CM Punk using a steel chair
Phil Mackenzie: The tired, laconic, sad-looking guy is finally going to fight. There will be lots of digital ink spilled whatever happens; about hubris, or ordinary men compared to fighters, or bravery, or maybe even defying the odds. Whatever the outcome it’ll generate… stuff. Brooks looks very much like someone who got into the sport to test himself, but couldn’t bring himself to turn down the opportunity to make lots of money doing it. So no pro-wrestling firebrand for you, UFC. Instead, a guy who looks like a roadie, doing nothing so much as exuding a steady hum of guilty hangdog defiance. Mickey Gall looks like he has good instincts and at least baseline UFC-level athleticism.
Mickey Gall by submission, round 1.
Fraser Coffeen: OK, look, I get that Gall is the obvious pick. I get that it’s Punk’s first fight, that he looks tired, that his early training footage was dicey to say the least, that he has a history of injuries, etc, etc, etc. But I also have followed the career of CM Punk for a long time (it’s pretty much required of anyone who lives in Chicago and has a passing interest in/knowledge of pro wrestling). And this is a guy with an insane work ethic and an insane will to succeed. He’s not very physically gifted, he wasn’t formally trained at first, yet he made it to the absolute Pinnacle in pro wrestling. He simply would not do this if he did not think he was going to win. Now, thinking you’re going to win and WINNING are two different things, as Diego Sanchez’s face can attest after it met BJ Penn. So everyone’s right - Gall probably wins. But I’m going for it.
CM Punk, TKO, round 1
Zane Simon: I’m prepared to be totally astonished if Punk wins this.
Mickey Gall via sub, round 1.
Staff picking Gall: Nick, Mookie, Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Stephie, Bissell, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Punk: Victor, Fraser
Anton Tabuena: He seems to have shown a lot of improvements since the early footage from his entry in Roufusport, but I’m not sure if that will be enough. Gall is much younger, faster, and way more experienced. He is also a BJJ brown belt who showed promise even against top grapplers. Not only is Punk having his very first fight ever, he is also having his very first weight cut. All the odds seem stacked against him, and I guess this is why I am really rooting for CM Punk to land something big on the feet. I doubt it happens though.
Mickey Gall by Submission.
Mookie Alexander: CM Punk isn’t going to win and there is quite frankly no need to dive deep into any sort of analysis.
Mickey Gall by whatever he wants, in no longer than 2.5 minutes.
Victor: Yeah, I’m the guy that wrote that thing. It seems that more than anything, the ramifications of the bout appear to be more interesting than the fight itself, seeing as there isn’t as much buzz as the UFC may have anticipated for a Brooks fight when he was first brought on board. Putting that aside, we’ve seen Brooks’ progression via the documentary series and saw the open workouts where he still looks clunky and stiff. Besides, Gall has actual experience with 3-0 as an amateur and 2-0 as a pro. Punk has a stiff European uppercut and specializes in ladder matches. You know what? Fuck it - I’m going with Team Chaos and picking Punk. Gall could be coming into this a bit too confident and get dropped by those hands. Yes, Gall looked great holding his own against eventual dark horse EBI tournament winner Gordon Goddamn Ryan. I don’t care. Let’s just hope Punk walks in to Cult of Personality to really spoil the party for the haters.
Phil Brooks by TKO
Eddie: So, I suppose it’s time for this to go down. I think CM Punk and Mickey Gall are getting an opportunity that a lot of people could only dream of. Are they deserving? Mickey Gall isn’t exactly sure and neither am I. I really hope CM Punk brings something of value to the ocatagon aside from eyeballs, whether it be in heart, skill, or hopefully both. I pray this isn’t Randy Couture vs. James Toney II and that somehow this match will morph into a competitive display of grit and determination that the crowd can get behind. If Forrest were here, Gump not Griffin, he would say that this fight is like a box of chocolates.
Mickey Gall by Disqualification due to CM Punk using a steel chair
Phil Mackenzie: The tired, laconic, sad-looking guy is finally going to fight. There will be lots of digital ink spilled whatever happens; about hubris, or ordinary men compared to fighters, or bravery, or maybe even defying the odds. Whatever the outcome it’ll generate… stuff. Brooks looks very much like someone who got into the sport to test himself, but couldn’t bring himself to turn down the opportunity to make lots of money doing it. So no pro-wrestling firebrand for you, UFC. Instead, a guy who looks like a roadie, doing nothing so much as exuding a steady hum of guilty hangdog defiance. Mickey Gall looks like he has good instincts and at least baseline UFC-level athleticism.
Mickey Gall by submission, round 1.
Fraser Coffeen: OK, look, I get that Gall is the obvious pick. I get that it’s Punk’s first fight, that he looks tired, that his early training footage was dicey to say the least, that he has a history of injuries, etc, etc, etc. But I also have followed the career of CM Punk for a long time (it’s pretty much required of anyone who lives in Chicago and has a passing interest in/knowledge of pro wrestling). And this is a guy with an insane work ethic and an insane will to succeed. He’s not very physically gifted, he wasn’t formally trained at first, yet he made it to the absolute Pinnacle in pro wrestling. He simply would not do this if he did not think he was going to win. Now, thinking you’re going to win and WINNING are two different things, as Diego Sanchez’s face can attest after it met BJ Penn. So everyone’s right - Gall probably wins. But I’m going for it.
CM Punk, TKO, round 1
Zane Simon: I’m prepared to be totally astonished if Punk wins this.
Mickey Gall via sub, round 1.
Staff picking Gall: Nick, Mookie, Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Anton, Stephie, Bissell, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Punk: Victor, Fraser
Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera
Anton Tabuena: Rivera seems promising, but this is a massive step up for him and I’m not picking someone yet to prove himself against this level of competition. At 37, Faber is probably close to the end of his career, but I’m still very surprised that people have him as an underdog. In the past 6 years, Faber beat everyone except for champions in Cruz, Edgar and Barao. I’m not sure if Rivera is on those guys’ level just yet. He may have problems standing up, but I think Faber will once again find an opportunity to scramble, and that’s where he’s going to seal the deal.
Urijah Faber by Submission.
Mookie Alexander: There’s going to come a point in time when Faber doesn’t beat the non-champions. We arguably should’ve seen it vs. Francisco Rivera before the eye poke, and Frankie Saenz really gave Faber everything he could handle. In steps Jimmie Rivera, who is only 27, has great takedown defense, sharp hands and real tight and technical boxing, and looks like a bad stylistic matchup for 2016 Faber. Urijah’s veteran savvy (has cliched as that is) combined with his ability to still win scrambles on the ground could get him to victory once again, but I think Father Time has finally caught up and I see Jimmie as a new contender at 135.
Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision.
Eddie: I have always been a fan of Faber and appreciate the elite talent that he has brought to the table. His hyper-athleticism, scrappy grappling, and serviceable striking has kept the California Kid right at the top of the bantamweight division for half of a decade. In recent memory, we have seen Faber go from Renan Barao to Alex Caceres and from Frankie Edgar to Frankie Saenz. Repeating the pattern, Urijah Faber will be dipping outside of the top 10 following a loss to face a lesser known but highly dangerous Jimmie Rivera. Rivera is on a hot streak and possesses the sort of firepower that could likely achieve a finish if the California Kid shows any signs of slowing down. Will this fight spell the beginning of the end for Faber? I hope not because of my fandom for Faber, but Rivera will be a guy who gets through that gate.
Jimmie Rivera by KO, Rd. 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Faber’s ability to win consistently still genuinely surprises me. Not because I expect him to fall off, but just because he somehow makes such good use of a fundamentally limited game. A big right hand which mostly just serves as the setup for the clinch, decent but not overwhelming offensive wrestling, and genuinely great scrambling ability. Fearlessness, moxie, and killer instinct have carried this skillset a very long way. Rivera is a tough matchup- a barrel-chested guy with rock solid takedown defense, but also a quicker, more technical and more diverse striker. If someone is fast enough and consistent enough to stifle Faber’s one route in, he gets awful limited awful fast.
Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Faber’s loss to Edgar makes the simple "title fight = loss; non-title = win" metric a bit harder to use. But I still think he’s a ways away from losing to this tier.
Urijah Faber, sub R3
Zane Simon: I really have my doubts that this was a great fight for Faber to take. A sort of no-name-value/all-danger-value matchup. Faber tends to excel when he can push a slight skill advantage into a huge one. If he’s a slightly better wrestler than his opponent, he’ll wrestle them all fight. If he’s a slightly better striker than his opponent, he’ll out-strike them every round. With Rivera, I’m not sure he’s boldly either. And the other side of turning a slight advantage into a big advantage is that Faber tends to turn slight disadvantages into big disadvantages. If he can’t outstrike an opponent, he’ll get badly outstruck, if he can’t out-wrestle an opponent, he’ll get firmly out-wrestled. This is the kind of dynamic that has led to incredibly definitive title losses, and a lot of non-title wins. But Rivera’s takedown defense is solid to the point that Faber may have to strike with him, and Rivera hits hard, may have faster hands, and can’t be pushed out of his game.
Jimmie Rivera via decision.
Staff picking Faber: Nick, Anton, Bissell, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Rivera: Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie, Zane
Anton Tabuena: Rivera seems promising, but this is a massive step up for him and I’m not picking someone yet to prove himself against this level of competition. At 37, Faber is probably close to the end of his career, but I’m still very surprised that people have him as an underdog. In the past 6 years, Faber beat everyone except for champions in Cruz, Edgar and Barao. I’m not sure if Rivera is on those guys’ level just yet. He may have problems standing up, but I think Faber will once again find an opportunity to scramble, and that’s where he’s going to seal the deal.
Urijah Faber by Submission.
Mookie Alexander: There’s going to come a point in time when Faber doesn’t beat the non-champions. We arguably should’ve seen it vs. Francisco Rivera before the eye poke, and Frankie Saenz really gave Faber everything he could handle. In steps Jimmie Rivera, who is only 27, has great takedown defense, sharp hands and real tight and technical boxing, and looks like a bad stylistic matchup for 2016 Faber. Urijah’s veteran savvy (has cliched as that is) combined with his ability to still win scrambles on the ground could get him to victory once again, but I think Father Time has finally caught up and I see Jimmie as a new contender at 135.
Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision.
Eddie: I have always been a fan of Faber and appreciate the elite talent that he has brought to the table. His hyper-athleticism, scrappy grappling, and serviceable striking has kept the California Kid right at the top of the bantamweight division for half of a decade. In recent memory, we have seen Faber go from Renan Barao to Alex Caceres and from Frankie Edgar to Frankie Saenz. Repeating the pattern, Urijah Faber will be dipping outside of the top 10 following a loss to face a lesser known but highly dangerous Jimmie Rivera. Rivera is on a hot streak and possesses the sort of firepower that could likely achieve a finish if the California Kid shows any signs of slowing down. Will this fight spell the beginning of the end for Faber? I hope not because of my fandom for Faber, but Rivera will be a guy who gets through that gate.
Jimmie Rivera by KO, Rd. 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Faber’s ability to win consistently still genuinely surprises me. Not because I expect him to fall off, but just because he somehow makes such good use of a fundamentally limited game. A big right hand which mostly just serves as the setup for the clinch, decent but not overwhelming offensive wrestling, and genuinely great scrambling ability. Fearlessness, moxie, and killer instinct have carried this skillset a very long way. Rivera is a tough matchup- a barrel-chested guy with rock solid takedown defense, but also a quicker, more technical and more diverse striker. If someone is fast enough and consistent enough to stifle Faber’s one route in, he gets awful limited awful fast.
Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Faber’s loss to Edgar makes the simple "title fight = loss; non-title = win" metric a bit harder to use. But I still think he’s a ways away from losing to this tier.
Urijah Faber, sub R3
Zane Simon: I really have my doubts that this was a great fight for Faber to take. A sort of no-name-value/all-danger-value matchup. Faber tends to excel when he can push a slight skill advantage into a huge one. If he’s a slightly better wrestler than his opponent, he’ll wrestle them all fight. If he’s a slightly better striker than his opponent, he’ll out-strike them every round. With Rivera, I’m not sure he’s boldly either. And the other side of turning a slight advantage into a big advantage is that Faber tends to turn slight disadvantages into big disadvantages. If he can’t outstrike an opponent, he’ll get badly outstruck, if he can’t out-wrestle an opponent, he’ll get firmly out-wrestled. This is the kind of dynamic that has led to incredibly definitive title losses, and a lot of non-title wins. But Rivera’s takedown defense is solid to the point that Faber may have to strike with him, and Rivera hits hard, may have faster hands, and can’t be pushed out of his game.
Jimmie Rivera via decision.
Staff picking Faber: Nick, Anton, Bissell, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Rivera: Eddie, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie, Zane
Jessica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood
Mookie Alexander: Damn right I’m hedging my bets. Picked Andrade on Three Amigos Podcast but I’m picking Calderwood here. There’s every reason to believe Andrade can just bully and blitz her way into a quick stoppage against Calderwood, who at times is prone to slow starts, but Calderwood is the most polished striker Andrade has dealt with. Calderwood makes great use of her kicks and has a considerable height and reach advantage. This is a fascinating fight that may see multiple knockdowns, but I’m juuuuuuust leaning towards Calderwood to win in rounds 2 and 3.
Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision.
Victor: This is a tough one, because Jojo is just so good and capable of frightening violence when she’s focused. Here she faces a hard-nosed former bantamweight that takes a lot of damage and hits pretty hard. Andrade can be sneaky with her takedowns and is very aggressive in her overall game. Still, Calderwood’s striking and timing can easily fluster Andrade. Calderwood’s range and ability to mix up her striking levels are a surefire way to deal with on opponent like this, as long as she doesn’t spend too much time pinned against the cage.
Joanne Calderwood by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The best fight on the card for pure, near-guaranteed action. The heavyweights could get sloppy, Rivera could strand Faber on the outside, but it’s difficult to see this one having a boring moment. I have a confession though: I’ve never really seen the Jojo hype. I thought most of her regional wins were fun but not evidence of anything but a solid clinch game, that she was an average athlete and a terribly slow starter who heavily relied on her opponents being inexperienced or out of fight shape. I was wrong. One of the most impressive things about her fight against Letourneau wasn’t that she actually won the first round(!) it was the steady diet of front kicks and teeps she fed the bigger fighter. Andrade is a near-pure swarmer, so it will be essential from Calderwood that she can hit those kicks on the outside and the clinch on the inside. Calderwood’s slow starting and lesser physical talent means there is a very strong chance she just gets murderthumped or that Andrade builds an unassailable lead, but
Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I’ve believed for a little while now that Joanne Calderwood will hit and athletic barrier that will (at least largely) keep her out of title contention. I thought Letourneau may have been that barrier, and she might have been were it not for some ill fitting sports equipment. However, I’m more sold on Andrade being that barrier, just because she’s a bully in a way that really sets up to exploit Calderwood’s lack of athleticism in a way that Letourneau wasn’t. While Letourneau was happy to trade kickboxing exchanges from distance with a more creative striker who was more willing to change up her approach, Andrade is going to look at Calderwood’s willingness to throw and willingness to get hit as unlimited opportunity. Maybe she gasses out and maybe Calderwood is old-boot tough enough to weather a storm and rally hard. But I’ll pick Andrade to overwhelm her for the early TKO.
Jessica Andrade via TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Andrade: Nick, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Calderwood: Victor, Dayne, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Tim
Mookie Alexander: Damn right I’m hedging my bets. Picked Andrade on Three Amigos Podcast but I’m picking Calderwood here. There’s every reason to believe Andrade can just bully and blitz her way into a quick stoppage against Calderwood, who at times is prone to slow starts, but Calderwood is the most polished striker Andrade has dealt with. Calderwood makes great use of her kicks and has a considerable height and reach advantage. This is a fascinating fight that may see multiple knockdowns, but I’m juuuuuuust leaning towards Calderwood to win in rounds 2 and 3.
Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision.
Victor: This is a tough one, because Jojo is just so good and capable of frightening violence when she’s focused. Here she faces a hard-nosed former bantamweight that takes a lot of damage and hits pretty hard. Andrade can be sneaky with her takedowns and is very aggressive in her overall game. Still, Calderwood’s striking and timing can easily fluster Andrade. Calderwood’s range and ability to mix up her striking levels are a surefire way to deal with on opponent like this, as long as she doesn’t spend too much time pinned against the cage.
Joanne Calderwood by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The best fight on the card for pure, near-guaranteed action. The heavyweights could get sloppy, Rivera could strand Faber on the outside, but it’s difficult to see this one having a boring moment. I have a confession though: I’ve never really seen the Jojo hype. I thought most of her regional wins were fun but not evidence of anything but a solid clinch game, that she was an average athlete and a terribly slow starter who heavily relied on her opponents being inexperienced or out of fight shape. I was wrong. One of the most impressive things about her fight against Letourneau wasn’t that she actually won the first round(!) it was the steady diet of front kicks and teeps she fed the bigger fighter. Andrade is a near-pure swarmer, so it will be essential from Calderwood that she can hit those kicks on the outside and the clinch on the inside. Calderwood’s slow starting and lesser physical talent means there is a very strong chance she just gets murderthumped or that Andrade builds an unassailable lead, but
Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I’ve believed for a little while now that Joanne Calderwood will hit and athletic barrier that will (at least largely) keep her out of title contention. I thought Letourneau may have been that barrier, and she might have been were it not for some ill fitting sports equipment. However, I’m more sold on Andrade being that barrier, just because she’s a bully in a way that really sets up to exploit Calderwood’s lack of athleticism in a way that Letourneau wasn’t. While Letourneau was happy to trade kickboxing exchanges from distance with a more creative striker who was more willing to change up her approach, Andrade is going to look at Calderwood’s willingness to throw and willingness to get hit as unlimited opportunity. Maybe she gasses out and maybe Calderwood is old-boot tough enough to weather a storm and rally hard. But I’ll pick Andrade to overwhelm her for the early TKO.
Jessica Andrade via TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Andrade: Nick, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Calderwood: Victor, Dayne, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Tim
Bethe Correia vs. Jessica Eye
Mookie Alexander: It’s entirely possible that Eye seeing a sports psychologist will truly benefit her, because otherwise she doesn’t fight with a consistently good strategy for me to trust her to win damn near any fight against a ranked opponent. I think Correia wins this in the clinch in a bit of an ugly fight.
Bethe Correia by split decision.
Victor: Guh. Bethe looked better in her last bout, and her work at AKA is paying off (provided she’s still spending a substantial amount of time there). Not just that, but this fight should be more of an indication of her true potential since mixing her her training. Problem is, she’s facing a much more technical and experienced boxer in Jessica Eye. Granted, wrestling has been the biggest weakness in Eye’s game, but Correia isn’t going to hunt for takedowns, so her best hope is eating a shot or two coming in and dominating in the clinch. Even so, Eye can easily turn that around, create distance and continue to establish her range. I want to see Correia do better (even though I’m still a bit irked by her shenanigans at the weigh-ins against Kedzie), but this isn’t a favorable bout at all.
Jessica Eye by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: If Eye wins this one, it’s because she showed up, which she hasn’t been doing lately. The new sports psychologist she’s started seeing may be the missing ingredient, and she’s shown that she can beat up aggressive brawlers by asploding Leslie Smith’s ear, but I’m still going to pick Correia. As much as people might dislike her, she just plain deserves to win this. Eye is a gifted fighter who has consistently underperformed, whereas Correia is deeply physically underwhelming, but has gotten consistently better through sheer force of will. I respect her borderline-delusional levels of self confidence a lot. She deserves to win this. Admit it.
Bethe Correia by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I can’t see picking Jessica Eye against any reasonably well trained fighter with a consistent approach to fighting. Correia may be nobody’s idea of an athletic marvel, but she works hard, she’s improving her skills, and she has a solid approach to winning rounds. Eye could just out-athlete her, but she hasn’t done that to anyone in a while.
Bethe Correia via decision.
Staff picking Correia: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Eye: Nick, Victor, Dayne, Anton, Bissell, Tim
Mookie Alexander: It’s entirely possible that Eye seeing a sports psychologist will truly benefit her, because otherwise she doesn’t fight with a consistently good strategy for me to trust her to win damn near any fight against a ranked opponent. I think Correia wins this in the clinch in a bit of an ugly fight.
Bethe Correia by split decision.
Victor: Guh. Bethe looked better in her last bout, and her work at AKA is paying off (provided she’s still spending a substantial amount of time there). Not just that, but this fight should be more of an indication of her true potential since mixing her her training. Problem is, she’s facing a much more technical and experienced boxer in Jessica Eye. Granted, wrestling has been the biggest weakness in Eye’s game, but Correia isn’t going to hunt for takedowns, so her best hope is eating a shot or two coming in and dominating in the clinch. Even so, Eye can easily turn that around, create distance and continue to establish her range. I want to see Correia do better (even though I’m still a bit irked by her shenanigans at the weigh-ins against Kedzie), but this isn’t a favorable bout at all.
Jessica Eye by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: If Eye wins this one, it’s because she showed up, which she hasn’t been doing lately. The new sports psychologist she’s started seeing may be the missing ingredient, and she’s shown that she can beat up aggressive brawlers by asploding Leslie Smith’s ear, but I’m still going to pick Correia. As much as people might dislike her, she just plain deserves to win this. Eye is a gifted fighter who has consistently underperformed, whereas Correia is deeply physically underwhelming, but has gotten consistently better through sheer force of will. I respect her borderline-delusional levels of self confidence a lot. She deserves to win this. Admit it.
Bethe Correia by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I can’t see picking Jessica Eye against any reasonably well trained fighter with a consistent approach to fighting. Correia may be nobody’s idea of an athletic marvel, but she works hard, she’s improving her skills, and she has a solid approach to winning rounds. Eye could just out-athlete her, but she hasn’t done that to anyone in a while.
Bethe Correia via decision.
Staff picking Correia: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Eye: Nick, Victor, Dayne, Anton, Bissell, Tim
Nik Lentz vs. Michael McBride
Victor: Fun fact: McBride is 8-1 and all of his wins have come by submission. Here’s another fact, Lentz isn’t slowing down that much, and has great wrestling plus a crazy submission defense game. Experience and suffocating top grappling win out here.
Nik Lentz by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: It has taken top-shelf MMA grapplers to beat Nik Lentz in that phase, namely Oliveira, Dunham and Mendes. Even then it was never easy. Lentz is aggressive enough that he can still get himself into trouble because he’s constantly trying to convert everything into offense, so this isn’t a stylistic layup, but it’s still a fight in Lentz’ core competency.
Nik Lentz by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I’m a big fan of Lentz’s cage work and think he gets way too much hate, considering how hard he seems to work at finding ways to beat opponents up. He’s not a finisher, but he is the kind of grinder who never stops working a guy over if he doesn’t have to. Give him an uninspiring wrestle-grappler like McBride and that just seems like it should be license to show off.
Nik Lentz via decision.
Staff picking Lentz: Nick, Victor, Phil, Eddie, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Fraser, Zane, Tim
Staff picking McBride:
Victor: Fun fact: McBride is 8-1 and all of his wins have come by submission. Here’s another fact, Lentz isn’t slowing down that much, and has great wrestling plus a crazy submission defense game. Experience and suffocating top grappling win out here.
Nik Lentz by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: It has taken top-shelf MMA grapplers to beat Nik Lentz in that phase, namely Oliveira, Dunham and Mendes. Even then it was never easy. Lentz is aggressive enough that he can still get himself into trouble because he’s constantly trying to convert everything into offense, so this isn’t a stylistic layup, but it’s still a fight in Lentz’ core competency.
Nik Lentz by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I’m a big fan of Lentz’s cage work and think he gets way too much hate, considering how hard he seems to work at finding ways to beat opponents up. He’s not a finisher, but he is the kind of grinder who never stops working a guy over if he doesn’t have to. Give him an uninspiring wrestle-grappler like McBride and that just seems like it should be license to show off.
Nik Lentz via decision.
Staff picking Lentz: Nick, Victor, Phil, Eddie, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Fraser, Zane, Tim
Staff picking McBride:
Caio Magalhaes vs. Brad Tavares
Mookie Alexander: Well this is definitely a middleweight fight. Magalhaes has power, Tavares might be the least powerful striker in the division. I guess he wins on volume alone. Maybe?
Brad Tavares by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I really, really struggled over this one. Went back and forth. One way, then the other, tussling with the only question which really matters here: "Is Magalhaes a BJJ Guy With a Suspect Gas Tank?" I’m going to say… not quite. He doesn’t go for takedowns as much since, like, the Ring fight. But on second thoughts… maybe he is though? His gas tank is certainly pretty suspect, that’s for damn sure. I give up.
Brad Tavares by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: For one shining moment, Brad Tavares fought like he was a real top 10 middleweight. It was his Lorenz Larkin fight, and he put the screws to Larkin like he’s never done to anyone before or since. Otherwise, Tavares has a terrible habit of coasting through rounds and giving opponents every opportunity to chase him down and hurt him if they’re willing to. Given that Magalhaes is unchecked pathological aggression in the form of a human gargoyle, I’m betting against Tavares staying safe for three rounds.
Caio Magalhaes via Submission, round 2.
Staff picking Magalhaes: Bissell, Zane
Staff picking Tavares: Nick, Phil, Eddie, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim
Mookie Alexander: Well this is definitely a middleweight fight. Magalhaes has power, Tavares might be the least powerful striker in the division. I guess he wins on volume alone. Maybe?
Brad Tavares by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I really, really struggled over this one. Went back and forth. One way, then the other, tussling with the only question which really matters here: "Is Magalhaes a BJJ Guy With a Suspect Gas Tank?" I’m going to say… not quite. He doesn’t go for takedowns as much since, like, the Ring fight. But on second thoughts… maybe he is though? His gas tank is certainly pretty suspect, that’s for damn sure. I give up.
Brad Tavares by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: For one shining moment, Brad Tavares fought like he was a real top 10 middleweight. It was his Lorenz Larkin fight, and he put the screws to Larkin like he’s never done to anyone before or since. Otherwise, Tavares has a terrible habit of coasting through rounds and giving opponents every opportunity to chase him down and hurt him if they’re willing to. Given that Magalhaes is unchecked pathological aggression in the form of a human gargoyle, I’m betting against Tavares staying safe for three rounds.
Caio Magalhaes via Submission, round 2.
Staff picking Magalhaes: Bissell, Zane
Staff picking Tavares: Nick, Phil, Eddie, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim
Yancy Medeiros vs. Sean Spencer
Phil Mackenzie: Medeiros has been a bit of a puzzler. Clearly talented, makes fight-to-fight improvements, but never quite getting over the hump. Spencer is very much a low-power but technical kickboxer who lives off the jab. I’m going to pick Medeiros- more dynamic, and he showed he could play against a good jab with Makdessi (yes he didn’t actually deserve to win that fight but shhh). He might be an example of the golden rule of Cheater Arms Good / Being Tall Bad, in that he never really learned to use his height at lightweight. If you think of him getting hit, it’s always someone getting underneath and crushing him with an overhand as he stands bolt upright, as per Poirier and Trinaldo. I think some more height parity and a bit less speed to contend with might do wonders, but this is a very tough pick.
Yancy Medeiros by unanimous decision.
Eddie: I dig Yancy’s moxie. His tenacity will put him in a crazy scramble where he will locate a funky submission.
Yancy Medeiros by Submission (High Elbow Guillotine), Rd. 1.
Zane Simon: Hopefully welterweight gives Medeiros a bit more gas to be a bit more consistent, because at lightweight he was basically Travis Browne. A weird grab bag of striking tricks that would be flashy one moment and then just a punch bag the next. Spencer could win as a high volume striker who has slowly looked to add power to his game, but I don’t know that his power additions haven’t lead to gas tank subtraction or that he actually has the chin or athleticism to really plant his feet and exchange with guys.
Yancy Medeiros via Split Decision.
Staff picking Medeiros: Nick, Phil, Eddie, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Fraser, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Spencer: Dayne
Phil Mackenzie: Medeiros has been a bit of a puzzler. Clearly talented, makes fight-to-fight improvements, but never quite getting over the hump. Spencer is very much a low-power but technical kickboxer who lives off the jab. I’m going to pick Medeiros- more dynamic, and he showed he could play against a good jab with Makdessi (yes he didn’t actually deserve to win that fight but shhh). He might be an example of the golden rule of Cheater Arms Good / Being Tall Bad, in that he never really learned to use his height at lightweight. If you think of him getting hit, it’s always someone getting underneath and crushing him with an overhand as he stands bolt upright, as per Poirier and Trinaldo. I think some more height parity and a bit less speed to contend with might do wonders, but this is a very tough pick.
Yancy Medeiros by unanimous decision.
Eddie: I dig Yancy’s moxie. His tenacity will put him in a crazy scramble where he will locate a funky submission.
Yancy Medeiros by Submission (High Elbow Guillotine), Rd. 1.
Zane Simon: Hopefully welterweight gives Medeiros a bit more gas to be a bit more consistent, because at lightweight he was basically Travis Browne. A weird grab bag of striking tricks that would be flashy one moment and then just a punch bag the next. Spencer could win as a high volume striker who has slowly looked to add power to his game, but I don’t know that his power additions haven’t lead to gas tank subtraction or that he actually has the chin or athleticism to really plant his feet and exchange with guys.
Yancy Medeiros via Split Decision.
Staff picking Medeiros: Nick, Phil, Eddie, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Fraser, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Spencer: Dayne
C.B. Dollaway vs. Francimar Barroso
Phil Mackenzie: Barroso is less of the pure clinch grinder that he once was and has a added in sloppy but fairly powerful kickboxing. He’s improved from being a first-ballot contender for "most boring modern MMA fighter" into someone who is merely very very boring. Dollaway has never been the most durable fighter, but he should have enough of a speed advantage that he can land his left hook and overhand, and he still hits pretty hard.
Clarence Byron by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: CB really should win this. He really really should. But moving up in weight + not being durable is a great way to lose fights you really should win. I’m picking Dollaway, but not with any of the certainty I feel I should have.
CB Dollaway via decision.
Staff picking Dollaway: Nick, Phil, Eddie, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Barroso: Tim
Phil Mackenzie: Barroso is less of the pure clinch grinder that he once was and has a added in sloppy but fairly powerful kickboxing. He’s improved from being a first-ballot contender for "most boring modern MMA fighter" into someone who is merely very very boring. Dollaway has never been the most durable fighter, but he should have enough of a speed advantage that he can land his left hook and overhand, and he still hits pretty hard.
Clarence Byron by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: CB really should win this. He really really should. But moving up in weight + not being durable is a great way to lose fights you really should win. I’m picking Dollaway, but not with any of the certainty I feel I should have.
CB Dollaway via decision.
Staff picking Dollaway: Nick, Phil, Eddie, Dayne, Anton, Mookie, Stephie, Bissell, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Barroso: Tim
