Pair of Parlays for UFC 198
from MMA Odds Breaker
Welterweight bout: Bryan Barbarena (+420) vs Warlley Alves (-550)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I don’t know what’s going on here. This machmaking makes absolutely zero sense. Alves is coming off an impressive win over Colby Covington and now takes several steps down in competition to face Alves. No sense, just none. Perhaps the UFC just wants to really punish Barbarena for beating their boy Sage Northcutt. In any case, I expect this fight to be a walk in the park for Alves, who has the advantage everywhere. Barbarena is very tough to finish but I think Alves is the type of fighter who can accomplish that task.
Gabe’s Call: Alves by Submission (guillotine choke, 2:!3 round 1)
Welterweight bout: Nate “The Great” Marquardt (+300) vs Thiago “Marreta” Santos (-360)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Marquardt should be retired by now and there’s a good chance Santos puts him there, depending on how viciously he ends the fight. I expect Santos to dominate on the feet here and likely put Marquardt away early. A few years ago, I may have given a striking edge to Marquardt, but today, I think it will be a mismatch in favor of Santos, mainly because of Santos’ power vs Marquardt’s chin.
Gabe’s Call: Santos by T/KO (puches, 0:53 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Parlays:
1) Alves (-550) and Santos (-360) at -197 for 5u to win 2.55u
2) Barbarena/Alves Under 2.5 rounds (+105) and Marquardt/Santos Under 1.5 rounds (-130) at +262 for 1.6u to win 4.2u
from MMA Odds Breaker
Welterweight bout: Bryan Barbarena (+420) vs Warlley Alves (-550)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I don’t know what’s going on here. This machmaking makes absolutely zero sense. Alves is coming off an impressive win over Colby Covington and now takes several steps down in competition to face Alves. No sense, just none. Perhaps the UFC just wants to really punish Barbarena for beating their boy Sage Northcutt. In any case, I expect this fight to be a walk in the park for Alves, who has the advantage everywhere. Barbarena is very tough to finish but I think Alves is the type of fighter who can accomplish that task.
Gabe’s Call: Alves by Submission (guillotine choke, 2:!3 round 1)
Welterweight bout: Nate “The Great” Marquardt (+300) vs Thiago “Marreta” Santos (-360)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Marquardt should be retired by now and there’s a good chance Santos puts him there, depending on how viciously he ends the fight. I expect Santos to dominate on the feet here and likely put Marquardt away early. A few years ago, I may have given a striking edge to Marquardt, but today, I think it will be a mismatch in favor of Santos, mainly because of Santos’ power vs Marquardt’s chin.
Gabe’s Call: Santos by T/KO (puches, 0:53 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Parlays:
1) Alves (-550) and Santos (-360) at -197 for 5u to win 2.55u
2) Barbarena/Alves Under 2.5 rounds (+105) and Marquardt/Santos Under 1.5 rounds (-130) at +262 for 1.6u to win 4.2u
UFC 198 Newcomer Breakdown: Luan Chagas
Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at Brazilian Luan Chagas as he debuts against jiu jitsu ace Sergio Moraes at UFC 198 in Curitiba, Brazil.
Luan “Tarzan” Chagas
Hometown: Navirai, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
Age: 22
Height: 6’0”
Reach: 75”
Weight Class: Welterweight
Camp: Gile Ribeiro Team
Career Record: 14-1
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None
Background
The BJJ and karate black belt has only been fighting professionally since 2012. He enters the world’s largest MMA promotion on the back of a nine fight winning streak. All of his career wins have been by stoppage.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Matchup with Sergio Moraes
An all Brazilian matchup which pairs two fighters who excel at the ground game in Luan Chagas and Sergio Moraes. Chagas has a decent kicking game and could potentially steal rounds in a prolonged stand up exchange. He’s the longer fighter and could certainly be competitive in a range fight. Moraes is a veteran fighter having faced much higher level of competition in his MMA career including a huge scalp over top ten welterweight Neil Magny. Chagas is no slouch on the ground showing he’s capable both from top control and in the guard, however Moraes is one of the best in the sport in a grappling contest. He’s a world champion in jiu jitsu with so much variety. Any attempt to go to the ground would be a big mistake for Chagas. In a 15 minute contest, it’s very unlikely this fight stays on the feet. Chagas has shown a tendency to attempt takedowns in all of his fights, plus his takedown defense is very poor. On the ground, the older Moraes will give Chagas a lesson in submission grappling. This is too much, too soon for the young Brazilian. Look for Moraes to get the submission win and his fifth win in a row inside the octagon.
UFC Ceiling
Luan Chagas is a very young fighter at just 22 years old. He’s shown flashes on the feet and appears to have a well-rounded ground game. His competition level has been poor and the fight camp he has been training at has produced no UFC level fighters. There’s going to be a learning curve for him when fighting in the UFC. There are certainly bright spots to his game, but his takedown defense is porous and his tendency to rush in on the feet with his hands down are recipes for disaster. He’s a fighter that I can see getting two fights in the UFC, being cut, and then getting another shot in the organization with some more experience.
Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at Brazilian Luan Chagas as he debuts against jiu jitsu ace Sergio Moraes at UFC 198 in Curitiba, Brazil.
Luan “Tarzan” Chagas
Hometown: Navirai, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
Age: 22
Height: 6’0”
Reach: 75”
Weight Class: Welterweight
Camp: Gile Ribeiro Team
Career Record: 14-1
Key Wins: None
Key Losses: None
Background
The BJJ and karate black belt has only been fighting professionally since 2012. He enters the world’s largest MMA promotion on the back of a nine fight winning streak. All of his career wins have been by stoppage.
Strengths
- Decent pop in his hands when he’s able to connect
- Good leg kicks particularly to the lower body of his opponent
- Solid grappler; both from top control and off his back
- Dangerous in guard wrapping up armbars and triangle chokes
Weaknesses
- Boxing needs work
- Tendency to rush in to close distance doing so with hands low
- Poor takedown defense
- Low level of competition
- Taking fight on short notice
Matchup with Sergio Moraes
An all Brazilian matchup which pairs two fighters who excel at the ground game in Luan Chagas and Sergio Moraes. Chagas has a decent kicking game and could potentially steal rounds in a prolonged stand up exchange. He’s the longer fighter and could certainly be competitive in a range fight. Moraes is a veteran fighter having faced much higher level of competition in his MMA career including a huge scalp over top ten welterweight Neil Magny. Chagas is no slouch on the ground showing he’s capable both from top control and in the guard, however Moraes is one of the best in the sport in a grappling contest. He’s a world champion in jiu jitsu with so much variety. Any attempt to go to the ground would be a big mistake for Chagas. In a 15 minute contest, it’s very unlikely this fight stays on the feet. Chagas has shown a tendency to attempt takedowns in all of his fights, plus his takedown defense is very poor. On the ground, the older Moraes will give Chagas a lesson in submission grappling. This is too much, too soon for the young Brazilian. Look for Moraes to get the submission win and his fifth win in a row inside the octagon.
UFC Ceiling
Luan Chagas is a very young fighter at just 22 years old. He’s shown flashes on the feet and appears to have a well-rounded ground game. His competition level has been poor and the fight camp he has been training at has produced no UFC level fighters. There’s going to be a learning curve for him when fighting in the UFC. There are certainly bright spots to his game, but his takedown defense is porous and his tendency to rush in on the feet with his hands down are recipes for disaster. He’s a fighter that I can see getting two fights in the UFC, being cut, and then getting another shot in the organization with some more experience.
The Complete Guide to UFC 198
from Patrick Wyman - MMA Senior Analyst - Bleacher Report
The Fight Pass Prelims
Featherweights
Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3; 3-0 UFC) vs. Renato Moicano (9-0-1; 1-0 UFC)
A strong matchup of talented featherweights opens the Fight Pass portion of the card as Chechnya's Zubaira Tukhugov takes on Brazil's Renato Moicano. Tukhugov took a decision from Phillipe Nover last December to run his winning streak to three, while Moicano defeated Tom Niinimaki in December 2014 in his only UFC appearance.
Tukhugov is well-rounded and highly athletic. He has a kick-heavy game at range that he pairs with strong counterpunching combinations, strong defensive wrestling and the occasional takedown, but he doesn't produce much volume.
Moicano is long for the division at 5'11", and he uses it well with straight punches and cracking kicks on the feet. Like Tukhugov, counters are a specialty. He's most dangerous as a grappler though, and he has a knack for getting the back.
Prediction: While Moicano hasn't fought in some time, he works at a much quicker pace and is substantially more dangerous on the mat. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Sergio Moraes (10-2; 4-1 UFC) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1; 0-0 UFC)
Brazil's Luan Chagas steps up on short notice to replace The Ultimate Fighter 21 winner Kamaru Usman against Sergio Moraes—a contestant on the first season of TUF Brazil. Chagas has compiled a strong record against good regional competition in Brazil in just shy of four years as a professional, while Moraes has now won four in a row since losing to Cezar Ferreira in June 2012.
The 22-year-old Chagas is a talented youngster. He packs real power on the feet and moves smoothly between kicks and punches, but does his best work on the mat, particularly with getting to the back in scrambles. Moraes is a legitimately world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and backs that up with an awkward but surprisingly dangerous striking game.
Prediction: If Chagas had more than two weeks to prepare, he might have had a good shot at pulling off the upset. As it stands though, Moraes should be able to get this to the mat and finish. He submits Chagas in the second round.
Light Heavyweights
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7; 4-4 UFC) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-3; 4-3 UFC)
The less celebrated of the Nogueira brothers headlines the Fight Pass portion of the card against the American Patrick Cummins. Antonio Nogueira has lost two in a row, falling first by knockout to Anthony Johnson and then by decision to Shogun Rua last August. Cummins too is trying to get back on track after a knockout loss to Glover Teixeira in November.
This is essentially Nogueira's last chance to stay relevant at 205 pounds, while Cummins would notch the biggest name win of his career with a victory here.
The American was an elite wrestler, and that's still the basis of his game. He doesn't have the most explosive shot, but once he gets in on the hips, he chains a slick variety of singles, doubles and trips until he gets the takedown. Moving from striking to wrestling and vice versa is a specialty, and he can drop bombs from top position.
Nogueira offers a strong combination of boxing and BJJ. The southpaw works behind a crisp jab and straight left, though he could stand to throw more volume. Sweeps from the half guard are a specialty on the mat, and he's a solid defensive wrestler to boot.
Prediction: Nogueira doesn't have much left in the tank. Cummins might eat a few shots, but he'll repeatedly get Nogueira to the mat and control him to take a clear decision.
from Patrick Wyman - MMA Senior Analyst - Bleacher Report
The Fight Pass Prelims
Featherweights
Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3; 3-0 UFC) vs. Renato Moicano (9-0-1; 1-0 UFC)
A strong matchup of talented featherweights opens the Fight Pass portion of the card as Chechnya's Zubaira Tukhugov takes on Brazil's Renato Moicano. Tukhugov took a decision from Phillipe Nover last December to run his winning streak to three, while Moicano defeated Tom Niinimaki in December 2014 in his only UFC appearance.
Tukhugov is well-rounded and highly athletic. He has a kick-heavy game at range that he pairs with strong counterpunching combinations, strong defensive wrestling and the occasional takedown, but he doesn't produce much volume.
Moicano is long for the division at 5'11", and he uses it well with straight punches and cracking kicks on the feet. Like Tukhugov, counters are a specialty. He's most dangerous as a grappler though, and he has a knack for getting the back.
Prediction: While Moicano hasn't fought in some time, he works at a much quicker pace and is substantially more dangerous on the mat. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Sergio Moraes (10-2; 4-1 UFC) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1; 0-0 UFC)
Brazil's Luan Chagas steps up on short notice to replace The Ultimate Fighter 21 winner Kamaru Usman against Sergio Moraes—a contestant on the first season of TUF Brazil. Chagas has compiled a strong record against good regional competition in Brazil in just shy of four years as a professional, while Moraes has now won four in a row since losing to Cezar Ferreira in June 2012.
The 22-year-old Chagas is a talented youngster. He packs real power on the feet and moves smoothly between kicks and punches, but does his best work on the mat, particularly with getting to the back in scrambles. Moraes is a legitimately world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and backs that up with an awkward but surprisingly dangerous striking game.
Prediction: If Chagas had more than two weeks to prepare, he might have had a good shot at pulling off the upset. As it stands though, Moraes should be able to get this to the mat and finish. He submits Chagas in the second round.
Light Heavyweights
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-7; 4-4 UFC) vs. Patrick Cummins (8-3; 4-3 UFC)
The less celebrated of the Nogueira brothers headlines the Fight Pass portion of the card against the American Patrick Cummins. Antonio Nogueira has lost two in a row, falling first by knockout to Anthony Johnson and then by decision to Shogun Rua last August. Cummins too is trying to get back on track after a knockout loss to Glover Teixeira in November.
This is essentially Nogueira's last chance to stay relevant at 205 pounds, while Cummins would notch the biggest name win of his career with a victory here.
The American was an elite wrestler, and that's still the basis of his game. He doesn't have the most explosive shot, but once he gets in on the hips, he chains a slick variety of singles, doubles and trips until he gets the takedown. Moving from striking to wrestling and vice versa is a specialty, and he can drop bombs from top position.
Nogueira offers a strong combination of boxing and BJJ. The southpaw works behind a crisp jab and straight left, though he could stand to throw more volume. Sweeps from the half guard are a specialty on the mat, and he's a solid defensive wrestler to boot.
Prediction: Nogueira doesn't have much left in the tank. Cummins might eat a few shots, but he'll repeatedly get Nogueira to the mat and control him to take a clear decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
Bantamweights
John Lineker (26-7; 7-2 UFC) vs. Rob Font (12-1; 2-0 UFC)
A bantamweight barnburner opens the Fox Sports 1 portion of the event. Brazil's John Lineker moved up from 125 pounds last September and engaged in a brawl for the ages with Francisco Rivera to run his current winning streak to three. Rob Font has finished both of his UFC wins. The Massachusetts native returned from an 18-month layoff to knock out Joey Gomez in January.
The bantamweight division is in the midst of a turnover right now as young talent moves up, and the winner will stake a strong claim to a spot in the new top 10.
Lineker is an iron-chinned, brick-fisted brawler. While short for the division at 5'3", his constant stream of punches, big power for 135 pounds and solid footwork make up for it. He's one of the most dedicated body punchers in MMA and mixes his shots up beautifully. Competent defensive wrestling and a slick guillotine add an additional threat, but for the most part, Lineker wants to be in the pocket winging punches.
Font is taller at 5'8" but is also an accomplished puncher. He likes to use his jab along with straight and round kicks at range that play off his height, and when he pressures his opponent to the fence, he then unloads vicious combinations. Technically sound takedowns add another dimension to his game.
Prediction: If Lineker can get inside Font's reach, he can overwhelm the taller fighter with combinations in the pocket. But if it stays at range, then Font should chew him up with kicks and straight punches. The American is hardly helpless in the pocket, either. Font takes a decision in a back-and-forth banger.
Middleweights
Thiago Santos (12-3; 4-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (34-15-2; 12-8 UFC)
Up-and-coming Brazilian Thiago Santos takes on the veteran Nate Marquardt in an excellent middleweight scrap. Santos has won three straight, including a mature decision win over Canadian prospect Elias Theodorou in December. Marquardt has been on a brutal run of late, compiling a 2-5 record in his last seven, but he knocked out C.B. Dollaway in his last outing to right the ship.
Santos is a skilled striker. At 6'0" and 183 pounds, he has fight-ending power in every shot he throws. He likes to switch stances and is equally dangerous from both sides, but either way, the left kick is his go-to weapon. Along with outstanding takedown defense, that's the extent of his game.
Marquardt is years past his prime, but he's still dangerous. He's at his best working behind a stiff jab and hard kicks at range and then picking his opponent off with counters. Good all-around wrestling skills and a dangerous submission game complete the package. The big issue now is durability: Marquardt struggles to take punches.
Prediction: Marquardt is skilled enough to make this interesting as a striking bout, but the most likely scenario involves Santos catching him with a big punch or kick. Santos finds the knockout shot in the first round.
Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (19-4; 9-3 UFC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (12-3, 1 N/C; 3-3, 1 N/C UFC)
Talented lightweights meet in an excellent matchup at 155 pounds. Brazil's Francisco Trinaldo has quietly strung together five straight wins in the UFC—a streak he capped with a decision over Ross Pearson in January. Hawaii's Yancy Medeiros rebounded from a knockout loss to Dustin Poirier by taking a tight decision over John Makdessi last December. If Trinaldo wins, he'll likely get a top-15 opponent.
Despite his 37 years of age, Trinaldo remains an excellent athlete with great speed and power. The southpaw mostly prefers to strike, winging potent punch-kick combinations at range, but he also boasts an excellent top game.
The 5'10" Medeiros is a striker by trade who puts his long reach to good use with a consistent jab and heavy right hand. He carries real power in his punches and can finish with a sneaky guillotine choke at any time on the mat.
Prediction: This is a close fight. Medeiros' length and ability to use it will make it tough for the shorter Trinaldo (5'9") to find his range on the feet, while the Hawaiian's takedown defense ensures that this will probably be a striking matchup. Still, Trinaldo is more polished and a bit quicker. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Demian Maia (22-6; 16-6 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (20-13; 13-7 UFC)
A fantastic welterweight matchup crowns the televised prelims. Since a loss to Rory MacDonald two years ago, Demian Maia has won four in a row, the most recent a decision over Gunnar Nelson. Matt Brown went on an epic seven-fight winning streak between 2012 and 2014, but lost a pair after that to Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks. He bounced back with a win over Tim Means last July.
With a win here, Maia would make a case for a title shot in the wild and weird welterweight division, which lacks a clear-cut contender. Brown is further away from the top, but a win over Maia would keep him in the top 10 and in fights with elite opposition.
Maia has rededicated himself to his core skills in recent years. The southpaw pressures from the opening bell, using his surprisingly sharp straight left to cover his forward movement, clinch entries and level changes. He's a strong and technically sound chain wrestler, while on the mat his skills are otherworldly.
Brown is a classic, pathologically aggressive pressure fighter. He works his way forward, slinging hard right hands and kicks to the head and body while he forces his opponent toward the fence. Once he reaches the cage, Brown dives into the clinch, where he mixes in knees, elbows and trips in bewildering and technically sound varieties. He's a competent defensive wrestler and a solid grappler as well.
Prediction: Brown has to survive the first two rounds and make Maia work while he does so. The Brazilian's cardio hasn't been impressive in the last several years, while Brown remains exceptionally durable and dedicated to wearing out his opponent with his pace and attrition.
Still, the more likely scenario involves Maia getting in on his takedown chains and working to Brown's back on the mat. Even if Maia doesn't finish, that kind of fight won't wear him out, and he could easily take a decision in that situation. The pick is Maia by submission in the first round.
Bantamweights
John Lineker (26-7; 7-2 UFC) vs. Rob Font (12-1; 2-0 UFC)
A bantamweight barnburner opens the Fox Sports 1 portion of the event. Brazil's John Lineker moved up from 125 pounds last September and engaged in a brawl for the ages with Francisco Rivera to run his current winning streak to three. Rob Font has finished both of his UFC wins. The Massachusetts native returned from an 18-month layoff to knock out Joey Gomez in January.
The bantamweight division is in the midst of a turnover right now as young talent moves up, and the winner will stake a strong claim to a spot in the new top 10.
Lineker is an iron-chinned, brick-fisted brawler. While short for the division at 5'3", his constant stream of punches, big power for 135 pounds and solid footwork make up for it. He's one of the most dedicated body punchers in MMA and mixes his shots up beautifully. Competent defensive wrestling and a slick guillotine add an additional threat, but for the most part, Lineker wants to be in the pocket winging punches.
Font is taller at 5'8" but is also an accomplished puncher. He likes to use his jab along with straight and round kicks at range that play off his height, and when he pressures his opponent to the fence, he then unloads vicious combinations. Technically sound takedowns add another dimension to his game.
Prediction: If Lineker can get inside Font's reach, he can overwhelm the taller fighter with combinations in the pocket. But if it stays at range, then Font should chew him up with kicks and straight punches. The American is hardly helpless in the pocket, either. Font takes a decision in a back-and-forth banger.
Middleweights
Thiago Santos (12-3; 4-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (34-15-2; 12-8 UFC)
Up-and-coming Brazilian Thiago Santos takes on the veteran Nate Marquardt in an excellent middleweight scrap. Santos has won three straight, including a mature decision win over Canadian prospect Elias Theodorou in December. Marquardt has been on a brutal run of late, compiling a 2-5 record in his last seven, but he knocked out C.B. Dollaway in his last outing to right the ship.
Santos is a skilled striker. At 6'0" and 183 pounds, he has fight-ending power in every shot he throws. He likes to switch stances and is equally dangerous from both sides, but either way, the left kick is his go-to weapon. Along with outstanding takedown defense, that's the extent of his game.
Marquardt is years past his prime, but he's still dangerous. He's at his best working behind a stiff jab and hard kicks at range and then picking his opponent off with counters. Good all-around wrestling skills and a dangerous submission game complete the package. The big issue now is durability: Marquardt struggles to take punches.
Prediction: Marquardt is skilled enough to make this interesting as a striking bout, but the most likely scenario involves Santos catching him with a big punch or kick. Santos finds the knockout shot in the first round.
Lightweights
Francisco Trinaldo (19-4; 9-3 UFC) vs. Yancy Medeiros (12-3, 1 N/C; 3-3, 1 N/C UFC)
Talented lightweights meet in an excellent matchup at 155 pounds. Brazil's Francisco Trinaldo has quietly strung together five straight wins in the UFC—a streak he capped with a decision over Ross Pearson in January. Hawaii's Yancy Medeiros rebounded from a knockout loss to Dustin Poirier by taking a tight decision over John Makdessi last December. If Trinaldo wins, he'll likely get a top-15 opponent.
Despite his 37 years of age, Trinaldo remains an excellent athlete with great speed and power. The southpaw mostly prefers to strike, winging potent punch-kick combinations at range, but he also boasts an excellent top game.
The 5'10" Medeiros is a striker by trade who puts his long reach to good use with a consistent jab and heavy right hand. He carries real power in his punches and can finish with a sneaky guillotine choke at any time on the mat.
Prediction: This is a close fight. Medeiros' length and ability to use it will make it tough for the shorter Trinaldo (5'9") to find his range on the feet, while the Hawaiian's takedown defense ensures that this will probably be a striking matchup. Still, Trinaldo is more polished and a bit quicker. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Welterweights
Demian Maia (22-6; 16-6 UFC) vs. Matt Brown (20-13; 13-7 UFC)
A fantastic welterweight matchup crowns the televised prelims. Since a loss to Rory MacDonald two years ago, Demian Maia has won four in a row, the most recent a decision over Gunnar Nelson. Matt Brown went on an epic seven-fight winning streak between 2012 and 2014, but lost a pair after that to Robbie Lawler and Johny Hendricks. He bounced back with a win over Tim Means last July.
With a win here, Maia would make a case for a title shot in the wild and weird welterweight division, which lacks a clear-cut contender. Brown is further away from the top, but a win over Maia would keep him in the top 10 and in fights with elite opposition.
Maia has rededicated himself to his core skills in recent years. The southpaw pressures from the opening bell, using his surprisingly sharp straight left to cover his forward movement, clinch entries and level changes. He's a strong and technically sound chain wrestler, while on the mat his skills are otherworldly.
Brown is a classic, pathologically aggressive pressure fighter. He works his way forward, slinging hard right hands and kicks to the head and body while he forces his opponent toward the fence. Once he reaches the cage, Brown dives into the clinch, where he mixes in knees, elbows and trips in bewildering and technically sound varieties. He's a competent defensive wrestler and a solid grappler as well.
Prediction: Brown has to survive the first two rounds and make Maia work while he does so. The Brazilian's cardio hasn't been impressive in the last several years, while Brown remains exceptionally durable and dedicated to wearing out his opponent with his pace and attrition.
Still, the more likely scenario involves Maia getting in on his takedown chains and working to Brown's back on the mat. Even if Maia doesn't finish, that kind of fight won't wear him out, and he could easily take a decision in that situation. The pick is Maia by submission in the first round.
Light Heavyweights
Shogun Rua (23-10; 7-8 UFC) vs. Corey Anderson (8-1; 5-1 UFC)
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua attempts to make one more run to the top of the division against The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Corey Anderson.
The 34-year-old Brazilian has been on a rough run for the last several years. He is 2-4 in his last six, and his only wins in that stretch are over James Te Huna and the similarly aged Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Still, he remains dangerous and retains a great deal of name value.
Anderson has evolved rapidly since winning TUF just shy of two years ago. Only one loss mars his UFC record, a knockout at the hands of Gian Villante. Since then, he has taken three in a row. Tom Lawlor and Fabio Maldonado were his most recent victims.
In his younger years, as the 22-year-old phenom who ran through the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, Rua was a marvel of speed, power and athleticism who fought with reckless abandon.
That fighter is gone today. Repeated injuries to his knees have robbed him of his athletic gifts, and his game has evolved over the years from berserker aggression to a more refined but still dangerous package.
Striking remains the core of Rua's approach. He probes behind an extended lead hand and occasional jabs as he pressures, but his bread and butter consists of vicious right kicks to the legs and body and a potent right hand that he throws as an overhand or uppercut. Counters and exchanges in the pocket are his specialties, though he's far from a defensive mastermind, and he relies heavily on his durability.
Power is the last thing to go for aging fighters, and Rua still has that in spades. He's not particularly quick anymore, though, and his pace isn't exactly blazing, either. He can operate indefinitely while things are under control, but how he reacts when pressured and forced to work is another story.
While Rua is known as a striker, he has always been a surprisingly effective wrestler with a proficient arsenal of singles, doubles and trips. From top position, he's one of the most dangerous ground strikers in the history of the sport, with great posture and serious power, though he's not much of a submission threat.
Defensive wrestling has never been Rua's strong suit, and that remains the case now. He makes up for it somewhat with an active sweep game, particularly from the deep half guard, but he remains vulnerable to strong wrestlers.
Anderson is a big, athletic and rapidly improving young fighter. The 26-year-old trains under Mark Henry, the boxing coach of Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza, who has instilled a strong command of striking fundamentals in his young charge.
Consistent movement, sound footwork and a steady stream of volume define Anderson's game on the feet. He consistently jabs to make the best use of his 79-inch reach, and he follows with hard low kicks. Head-body combinations fly fast and furious, and while he isn't a powerful puncher, he has quick hands and drowns his opponent in a steady stream of volume. Surprisingly smooth counters make him difficult to pressure.
The real core of Anderson's game remains his wrestling and clinch work. He excels at punching his way into the clinch, where his height (6'3") gives him great leverage for control while he lands knees and short punches. Transitioning from striking to takedowns isn't yet his strong suit, but once he gets in on a takedown, he's a strong chain-wrestler.
From top position, Anderson maintains a heavy base and drops bombs. He has only a basic submission game, but his control and striking are enough to eat up rounds.
Whether he's on the feet, in the clinch or on the mat, Anderson constantly forces his opponent to work. That commitment to attrition is his strongest weapon.
Prediction
There are two likely outcomes in this fight. In the first, Shogun lands a heavy punch or kick and follows with ground strikes to put Anderson down. In the second, Anderson's volume on the feet and tireless wrestling game combine to outwork Shogun for three rounds to take a decision.
The second scenario is more probable. Anderson is bigger, stronger, faster and works at a much quicker pace on the feet, and there's no reason to think that the 6'1" Shogun can stuff all of Anderson's takedowns. The American will eat a few big shots, but he'll take a comfortable decision.
Shogun Rua (23-10; 7-8 UFC) vs. Corey Anderson (8-1; 5-1 UFC)
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua attempts to make one more run to the top of the division against The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Corey Anderson.
The 34-year-old Brazilian has been on a rough run for the last several years. He is 2-4 in his last six, and his only wins in that stretch are over James Te Huna and the similarly aged Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Still, he remains dangerous and retains a great deal of name value.
Anderson has evolved rapidly since winning TUF just shy of two years ago. Only one loss mars his UFC record, a knockout at the hands of Gian Villante. Since then, he has taken three in a row. Tom Lawlor and Fabio Maldonado were his most recent victims.
In his younger years, as the 22-year-old phenom who ran through the 2005 Pride Middleweight Grand Prix, Rua was a marvel of speed, power and athleticism who fought with reckless abandon.
That fighter is gone today. Repeated injuries to his knees have robbed him of his athletic gifts, and his game has evolved over the years from berserker aggression to a more refined but still dangerous package.
Striking remains the core of Rua's approach. He probes behind an extended lead hand and occasional jabs as he pressures, but his bread and butter consists of vicious right kicks to the legs and body and a potent right hand that he throws as an overhand or uppercut. Counters and exchanges in the pocket are his specialties, though he's far from a defensive mastermind, and he relies heavily on his durability.
Power is the last thing to go for aging fighters, and Rua still has that in spades. He's not particularly quick anymore, though, and his pace isn't exactly blazing, either. He can operate indefinitely while things are under control, but how he reacts when pressured and forced to work is another story.
While Rua is known as a striker, he has always been a surprisingly effective wrestler with a proficient arsenal of singles, doubles and trips. From top position, he's one of the most dangerous ground strikers in the history of the sport, with great posture and serious power, though he's not much of a submission threat.
Defensive wrestling has never been Rua's strong suit, and that remains the case now. He makes up for it somewhat with an active sweep game, particularly from the deep half guard, but he remains vulnerable to strong wrestlers.
Anderson is a big, athletic and rapidly improving young fighter. The 26-year-old trains under Mark Henry, the boxing coach of Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza, who has instilled a strong command of striking fundamentals in his young charge.
Consistent movement, sound footwork and a steady stream of volume define Anderson's game on the feet. He consistently jabs to make the best use of his 79-inch reach, and he follows with hard low kicks. Head-body combinations fly fast and furious, and while he isn't a powerful puncher, he has quick hands and drowns his opponent in a steady stream of volume. Surprisingly smooth counters make him difficult to pressure.
The real core of Anderson's game remains his wrestling and clinch work. He excels at punching his way into the clinch, where his height (6'3") gives him great leverage for control while he lands knees and short punches. Transitioning from striking to takedowns isn't yet his strong suit, but once he gets in on a takedown, he's a strong chain-wrestler.
From top position, Anderson maintains a heavy base and drops bombs. He has only a basic submission game, but his control and striking are enough to eat up rounds.
Whether he's on the feet, in the clinch or on the mat, Anderson constantly forces his opponent to work. That commitment to attrition is his strongest weapon.
Prediction
There are two likely outcomes in this fight. In the first, Shogun lands a heavy punch or kick and follows with ground strikes to put Anderson down. In the second, Anderson's volume on the feet and tireless wrestling game combine to outwork Shogun for three rounds to take a decision.
The second scenario is more probable. Anderson is bigger, stronger, faster and works at a much quicker pace on the feet, and there's no reason to think that the 6'1" Shogun can stuff all of Anderson's takedowns. The American will eat a few big shots, but he'll take a comfortable decision.
Catchweight, 140 pounds
Cris Cyborg (15-1, 1 N/C; 0-0 UFC) vs. Leslie Smith (8-6-1; 2-2 UFC)
Cris Cyborg has been the most feared fighter in women's MMA for most of the last decade, and she finally makes her UFC debut at a 140-pound catchweight against the American Leslie Smith. While a long-rumored fight against Ronda Rousey would have been a much bigger payday for Cyborg, getting into the world's biggest promotion is still a huge step for the dynamic Brazilian.
Cyborg hasn't lost since her professional debut and hasn't seen the judges' scorecards since 2008. Since then, she has finished each of her nine wins in impressive fashion.
This is a huge opportunity for Smith, who has alternated wins and losses in four UFC appearances. She returned from a 16-month layoff to take a decision over Rin Nakai in March.
Smith is a brawler by trade, but one with a measure of technical skill. She works behind a consistent jab that plays off her 5'9" height and then wades forward behind wild punching combinations and the occasional kick. Head-body sequences come at a rapid pace, and while she doesn't pack much power, she's perfectly capable of burying her opponents with offensive output.
Defense is an issue, though. Smith is always there to be hit and doesn't provide much incentive for her opponents not to hit her in the face. Decent takedown defense mostly keeps her standing, and she has a reasonable command of defensive grappling, but that's the extent of her game.
While Cyborg is known for her power and physicality, her technical acumen should not be underestimated. Her jab is crushing and constant, and she backs that up with potent punching combinations as she moves forward. She's surprisingly slick on the counter, however, and moves her head consistently as she throws. Every strike carries crushing force and can end the fight at any time.
As good as she is at range, Cyborg is even better in the clinch. Her strength is overwhelming, and she excels at transitioning between the double-collar tie, frames and underhooks from which she can throw a steady stream of potent knees. It's hard to overstate how physical and dangerous Cyborg is on the inside.
Strong hips and technical defensive wrestling keeps Cyborg standing, while the occasional body-lock takedown adds another dimension for opponents to worry about. She's dangerous from the top, where her power translates into fight-ending ground striking.
At this stage, it's hard to point to any aspect of Cyborg's game as a weakness. She hits hard, doesn't seem to run out of gas as the fight goes on, is defensively sound and can operate both standing and on the ground.
Prediction
This is going to be a drubbing of epic proportions. Smith is durable but defensively lacking, which is the perfect recipe for Cyborg to style on her at range and especially in the clinch. The American's toughness will help her last awhile, but eventually a stream of knees and punches will finish this in the first or second round.
Cris Cyborg (15-1, 1 N/C; 0-0 UFC) vs. Leslie Smith (8-6-1; 2-2 UFC)
Cris Cyborg has been the most feared fighter in women's MMA for most of the last decade, and she finally makes her UFC debut at a 140-pound catchweight against the American Leslie Smith. While a long-rumored fight against Ronda Rousey would have been a much bigger payday for Cyborg, getting into the world's biggest promotion is still a huge step for the dynamic Brazilian.
Cyborg hasn't lost since her professional debut and hasn't seen the judges' scorecards since 2008. Since then, she has finished each of her nine wins in impressive fashion.
This is a huge opportunity for Smith, who has alternated wins and losses in four UFC appearances. She returned from a 16-month layoff to take a decision over Rin Nakai in March.
Smith is a brawler by trade, but one with a measure of technical skill. She works behind a consistent jab that plays off her 5'9" height and then wades forward behind wild punching combinations and the occasional kick. Head-body sequences come at a rapid pace, and while she doesn't pack much power, she's perfectly capable of burying her opponents with offensive output.
Defense is an issue, though. Smith is always there to be hit and doesn't provide much incentive for her opponents not to hit her in the face. Decent takedown defense mostly keeps her standing, and she has a reasonable command of defensive grappling, but that's the extent of her game.
While Cyborg is known for her power and physicality, her technical acumen should not be underestimated. Her jab is crushing and constant, and she backs that up with potent punching combinations as she moves forward. She's surprisingly slick on the counter, however, and moves her head consistently as she throws. Every strike carries crushing force and can end the fight at any time.
As good as she is at range, Cyborg is even better in the clinch. Her strength is overwhelming, and she excels at transitioning between the double-collar tie, frames and underhooks from which she can throw a steady stream of potent knees. It's hard to overstate how physical and dangerous Cyborg is on the inside.
Strong hips and technical defensive wrestling keeps Cyborg standing, while the occasional body-lock takedown adds another dimension for opponents to worry about. She's dangerous from the top, where her power translates into fight-ending ground striking.
At this stage, it's hard to point to any aspect of Cyborg's game as a weakness. She hits hard, doesn't seem to run out of gas as the fight goes on, is defensively sound and can operate both standing and on the ground.
Prediction
This is going to be a drubbing of epic proportions. Smith is durable but defensively lacking, which is the perfect recipe for Cyborg to style on her at range and especially in the clinch. The American's toughness will help her last awhile, but eventually a stream of knees and punches will finish this in the first or second round.
Welterweights
Warlley Alves (10-0; 4-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (11-3; 2-1 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 winner Warlley Alves might be the most promising prospect in Brazil. The 25-year-old has won all four of his UFC outings—three of them by submission—and most recently took out talented wrestler Colby Covington at UFC 194 in December.
Bryan Barberena put himself on the map with a submission win over the highly touted Sage Northcutt in January, but he's definitely the B-side of this matchup against the quick-rising Alves.
Barberena is a tough, rugged and well-rounded fighter who pushes a great pace. The southpaw throws a steady stream of hard low kicks and then looks to punch his way into the clinch, where he puts his size and strength to good use against the cage. He's competent on top, with hard strikes and basic submissions.
Alves is a hyper-athletic and aggressive fighter. He likes to pressure his opponent toward the fence while throwing an array of round and spinning kicks, and then unload punching combinations or work into the clinch. He has a strong takedown game, but the best part of his arsenal are lethal chokes in transitions, particularly his guillotine.
Prediction
If Barberena can push this late into the second and third round, he should have a substantial edge in cardio as the fight goes on. Before then, however, he has to deal with an opponent who has substantial technical and athletic edges everywhere. Alves submits the American in the second round.
Warlley Alves (10-0; 4-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (11-3; 2-1 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 winner Warlley Alves might be the most promising prospect in Brazil. The 25-year-old has won all four of his UFC outings—three of them by submission—and most recently took out talented wrestler Colby Covington at UFC 194 in December.
Bryan Barberena put himself on the map with a submission win over the highly touted Sage Northcutt in January, but he's definitely the B-side of this matchup against the quick-rising Alves.
Barberena is a tough, rugged and well-rounded fighter who pushes a great pace. The southpaw throws a steady stream of hard low kicks and then looks to punch his way into the clinch, where he puts his size and strength to good use against the cage. He's competent on top, with hard strikes and basic submissions.
Alves is a hyper-athletic and aggressive fighter. He likes to pressure his opponent toward the fence while throwing an array of round and spinning kicks, and then unload punching combinations or work into the clinch. He has a strong takedown game, but the best part of his arsenal are lethal chokes in transitions, particularly his guillotine.
Prediction
If Barberena can push this late into the second and third round, he should have a substantial edge in cardio as the fight goes on. Before then, however, he has to deal with an opponent who has substantial technical and athletic edges everywhere. Alves submits the American in the second round.
Middleweights
Jacare Souza (22-4, 1 N/C; 5-1 UFC) vs. Vitor Belfort (25-11; 14-7 UFC)
Two Brazilian veterans meet in a compelling co-main event. Jacare Souza had strung together eight consecutive wins, including five in the UFC, since a loss to Luke Rockhold in Strikeforce back in 2011 that cost him his title. He fell short against Cuban Yoel Romero at UFC 194 in December, however, and the 36-year-old now looks to get back on track.
Vitor Belfort is now 39 and approaching the 20-year anniversary of his pro MMA debut. He has been up and down in that time but has been on an excellent run in recent years. His only losses in the last nine years have come at the hands of Chris Weidman, Jon Jones and Anderson Silva, with the most recent a drubbing at Weidman's hands last May. Belfort got back on track by knocking out Dan Henderson last November.
With both fighters now in their late 30s, the loser will effectively be done as an elite middleweight, while the winner will get another crack at the elite in a division that lacks clear-cut contenders.
Souza is a pressure fighter by nature. Everything he does depends on slowly but methodically cutting off his opponent's escape angles and forcing him toward the cage.
To that end, Souza employs tight footwork, a hard right round and front kick and steady work to the body. A probing lead hand measures the distance before he commits to a strike. Every shot carries serious power, though he doesn't throw much volume, and he stays defensively sound as he pressures.
The whole point of that striking work, as dangerous as it can be, is to open up the clinch and shot entries for Souza. He has a slick array of trips in the clinch, excels at working to the back on the feet, and has an explosive and technically sound double. He's not easy to take down, either.
Souza remains one of the best grapplers in MMA and has perhaps the best top game in the history of the sport. His passes are impossibly smooth and his base unmovable. Once he gets on top, he's not going anywhere. Vicious strikes open up passes and submission attempts, particularly the arm triangle. Getting to the back is another specialty, and he excels at wearing his opponents down mentally and physically.
On the downside, Souza is getting older. He's still fast and explosive, but less so than he was in his younger years, and his chin has never been iron. Volume isn't his strong suit, and he'll always be vulnerable to opponents who work fast.
Belfort has been many different fighters during his years in the sport, but his exceptional physical gifts have remained constant. He's exceptionally fast, packs incredible power and has the killer instinct to finish any hurt opponent in the blink of an eye.
Striking is Belfort's wheelhouse. The southpaw operates at the farthest possible range and barely throws anything, but picks his spots to either commit to counters when his opponents try to cover the distance or try to explode forward into a lethal kick or flurry of punches. Spinning kicks add some variety, but the straight left and left high kick are his bread and butter.
That's the extent of Belfort's game. His speed and power are shocking, and he possesses the timing and sense of distance you would expect from a veteran, but there's nothing complex about his approach.
Belfort is an above-average defensive wrestler, and his command of distance makes it difficult to get a clean shot at him in the first place. His guard is dangerous, and when he gets on top he can finish, but Belfort never looks to make that happen with takedowns or work in the clinch.
Prediction
Belfort could crack Souza and finish him at any time, but in general, Souza has a much sounder process. He'll back Belfort up, survive the inevitable flurry and then capitalize with takedowns and work on the mat when Belfort gets tired. Souza finds the submission early in the second round.
Jacare Souza (22-4, 1 N/C; 5-1 UFC) vs. Vitor Belfort (25-11; 14-7 UFC)
Two Brazilian veterans meet in a compelling co-main event. Jacare Souza had strung together eight consecutive wins, including five in the UFC, since a loss to Luke Rockhold in Strikeforce back in 2011 that cost him his title. He fell short against Cuban Yoel Romero at UFC 194 in December, however, and the 36-year-old now looks to get back on track.
Vitor Belfort is now 39 and approaching the 20-year anniversary of his pro MMA debut. He has been up and down in that time but has been on an excellent run in recent years. His only losses in the last nine years have come at the hands of Chris Weidman, Jon Jones and Anderson Silva, with the most recent a drubbing at Weidman's hands last May. Belfort got back on track by knocking out Dan Henderson last November.
With both fighters now in their late 30s, the loser will effectively be done as an elite middleweight, while the winner will get another crack at the elite in a division that lacks clear-cut contenders.
Souza is a pressure fighter by nature. Everything he does depends on slowly but methodically cutting off his opponent's escape angles and forcing him toward the cage.
To that end, Souza employs tight footwork, a hard right round and front kick and steady work to the body. A probing lead hand measures the distance before he commits to a strike. Every shot carries serious power, though he doesn't throw much volume, and he stays defensively sound as he pressures.
The whole point of that striking work, as dangerous as it can be, is to open up the clinch and shot entries for Souza. He has a slick array of trips in the clinch, excels at working to the back on the feet, and has an explosive and technically sound double. He's not easy to take down, either.
Souza remains one of the best grapplers in MMA and has perhaps the best top game in the history of the sport. His passes are impossibly smooth and his base unmovable. Once he gets on top, he's not going anywhere. Vicious strikes open up passes and submission attempts, particularly the arm triangle. Getting to the back is another specialty, and he excels at wearing his opponents down mentally and physically.
On the downside, Souza is getting older. He's still fast and explosive, but less so than he was in his younger years, and his chin has never been iron. Volume isn't his strong suit, and he'll always be vulnerable to opponents who work fast.
Belfort has been many different fighters during his years in the sport, but his exceptional physical gifts have remained constant. He's exceptionally fast, packs incredible power and has the killer instinct to finish any hurt opponent in the blink of an eye.
Striking is Belfort's wheelhouse. The southpaw operates at the farthest possible range and barely throws anything, but picks his spots to either commit to counters when his opponents try to cover the distance or try to explode forward into a lethal kick or flurry of punches. Spinning kicks add some variety, but the straight left and left high kick are his bread and butter.
That's the extent of Belfort's game. His speed and power are shocking, and he possesses the timing and sense of distance you would expect from a veteran, but there's nothing complex about his approach.
Belfort is an above-average defensive wrestler, and his command of distance makes it difficult to get a clean shot at him in the first place. His guard is dangerous, and when he gets on top he can finish, but Belfort never looks to make that happen with takedowns or work in the clinch.
Prediction
Belfort could crack Souza and finish him at any time, but in general, Souza has a much sounder process. He'll back Belfort up, survive the inevitable flurry and then capitalize with takedowns and work on the mat when Belfort gets tired. Souza finds the submission early in the second round.
Heavyweight Championship
Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1; 8-2 UFC) vs. Stipe Miocic (14-2; 8-2 UFC)
Heavyweight champion Werdum makes the first defense of his title against Ohio's Miocic. This is an outstanding matchup—one of the best the division has to offer—and it should be a great back-and-forth fight.
The 38-year-old Werdum's rise to the title has been unlikely, to say the least, but he now boasts one of the best resumes of any heavyweight in history. He defeated Cain Velasquez to take the belt, finished Mark Hunt before that and dominated Travis Browne over five rounds. He last lost to Alistair Overeem back in 2011.
Miocic has grown into a complete fighter. He dropped a competitive five-round decision to Junior dos Santos in December 2014, but finished both Hunt and Andrei Arlovski to punch his ticket to a title fight.
Werdum began his MMA career as a pure grappler and burnished those credentials with two wins at the ADCCs, making him the most accomplished heavyweight grappler in the sport. Over the last decade, however, he has grown into a skilled striker to boot while adding a strong wrestling game for good measure.
Craft defines Werdum's striking game. He isn't the most powerful, and he isn't the fastest, but he's tough, works at a quick pace and excels at reading his opponent and picking his shots accordingly.
As befits a crafty and experienced striker with a 6'4" frame, the jab forms the basis of Werdum's game on the feet. He pumps it constantly and puts real pop behind it, using it to set up hard right kicks and the straight right. Front kicks help to push his opponent back to the end of Werdum's reach and open up his forward-moving combinations, which he likes to punctuate with a vicious left kick to the body.
Werdum isn't a dangerous counterpuncher, but he's willing to exchange in the pocket to dissuade aggressive opponents from the idea of pressuring him at will.
While he's decent off the back foot, Werdum is happiest pressing forward. He likes to follow his punch-kick combinations by diving into the clinch, where his height gives him great leverage, particularly when combined with his serious technical acumen. Werdum's double-collar tie is one of the best in the sport, and he throws vicious knees to the head and body at a rapid pace.
Werdum has progressed a great deal as a wrestler since the days of shooting awful takedowns against Alistair Overeem five years ago, and shoots a technical single and double these days. He places little emphasis on defending takedowns, but with his grappling arsenal, it's not terribly necessary.
Grappling is still Werdum's world. He floats naturally on top and passes beautifully, while on the bottom his guard is active and dangerous. It's hard to overstate how technically sound and smooth Werdum is on the mat, though it should be noted that strong top players have shut him down before.
Miocic is a meat-and-potatoes fighter. Nothing he does is spectacular, but it's all technically sound, and he's blessed with excellent athleticism and some power in his hands. More than anything, however, his game is built on pace.
The Ohio native is mostly a boxer on the feet. He pumps a sharp jab at range as he circles and angles with technically sound footwork, and often follows with a long right hand. His left hook is most dangerous as a counter, and he mixes in the occasional uppercut. For the most part, he's content to stick the one-two, pivot out and repeat the process. The occasional low kick adds some variety.
What makes this hard to deal with is the rate at which Miocic does it. His pace is second only to Velasquez in the heavyweight division, but unlike Velasquez, he prefers to operate in open space rather than pressuring his opponent back toward the fence. This plays to Miocic's 6'4" frame, long reach and preference for rangy punches.
Miocic is competent in the clinch, but the former Division I competitor at Cleveland State still boasts excellent wrestling skills. He prefers explosive doubles and quick, well-finished singles, and while his takedown defense isn't bulletproof, it is well above average.
While he isn't on Werdum's level as a grappler, Miocic does excellent work from top position. His base is heavy, he has good posture, and he packs some power in his ground strikes—particularly when he gets to half guard. His commitment to pace and attrition is just as visible on the mat as it is on the feet.
Prediction
As the betting odds suggest, this is a close fight. Werdum is the superior grappler by any measure, but Miocic should have the wrestling advantage. On the feet, Werdum is the more diverse striker, but Miocic is a bit more fundamentally sound and works a bit faster.
If Werdum can get this to the ground, he should win it handily. That probably won't happen, though, which means that the striking and clinch phases are essential. It's essentially a wash on the feet, as both like to operate at a quick pace, with Werdum owning a substantial advantage at kicking distance and Miocic a slight one in the pocket.
This should come down to the clinch, and there's little question that Werdum is better there. It's a small edge in the grand scheme of things, but Werdum has shown before that slivers of advantage are all he needs to capitalize.
Through a mixture of judicious work at range and piling up damage in the clinch, Werdum takes a decision.
Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1; 8-2 UFC) vs. Stipe Miocic (14-2; 8-2 UFC)
Heavyweight champion Werdum makes the first defense of his title against Ohio's Miocic. This is an outstanding matchup—one of the best the division has to offer—and it should be a great back-and-forth fight.
The 38-year-old Werdum's rise to the title has been unlikely, to say the least, but he now boasts one of the best resumes of any heavyweight in history. He defeated Cain Velasquez to take the belt, finished Mark Hunt before that and dominated Travis Browne over five rounds. He last lost to Alistair Overeem back in 2011.
Miocic has grown into a complete fighter. He dropped a competitive five-round decision to Junior dos Santos in December 2014, but finished both Hunt and Andrei Arlovski to punch his ticket to a title fight.
Werdum began his MMA career as a pure grappler and burnished those credentials with two wins at the ADCCs, making him the most accomplished heavyweight grappler in the sport. Over the last decade, however, he has grown into a skilled striker to boot while adding a strong wrestling game for good measure.
Craft defines Werdum's striking game. He isn't the most powerful, and he isn't the fastest, but he's tough, works at a quick pace and excels at reading his opponent and picking his shots accordingly.
As befits a crafty and experienced striker with a 6'4" frame, the jab forms the basis of Werdum's game on the feet. He pumps it constantly and puts real pop behind it, using it to set up hard right kicks and the straight right. Front kicks help to push his opponent back to the end of Werdum's reach and open up his forward-moving combinations, which he likes to punctuate with a vicious left kick to the body.
Werdum isn't a dangerous counterpuncher, but he's willing to exchange in the pocket to dissuade aggressive opponents from the idea of pressuring him at will.
While he's decent off the back foot, Werdum is happiest pressing forward. He likes to follow his punch-kick combinations by diving into the clinch, where his height gives him great leverage, particularly when combined with his serious technical acumen. Werdum's double-collar tie is one of the best in the sport, and he throws vicious knees to the head and body at a rapid pace.
Werdum has progressed a great deal as a wrestler since the days of shooting awful takedowns against Alistair Overeem five years ago, and shoots a technical single and double these days. He places little emphasis on defending takedowns, but with his grappling arsenal, it's not terribly necessary.
Grappling is still Werdum's world. He floats naturally on top and passes beautifully, while on the bottom his guard is active and dangerous. It's hard to overstate how technically sound and smooth Werdum is on the mat, though it should be noted that strong top players have shut him down before.
Miocic is a meat-and-potatoes fighter. Nothing he does is spectacular, but it's all technically sound, and he's blessed with excellent athleticism and some power in his hands. More than anything, however, his game is built on pace.
The Ohio native is mostly a boxer on the feet. He pumps a sharp jab at range as he circles and angles with technically sound footwork, and often follows with a long right hand. His left hook is most dangerous as a counter, and he mixes in the occasional uppercut. For the most part, he's content to stick the one-two, pivot out and repeat the process. The occasional low kick adds some variety.
What makes this hard to deal with is the rate at which Miocic does it. His pace is second only to Velasquez in the heavyweight division, but unlike Velasquez, he prefers to operate in open space rather than pressuring his opponent back toward the fence. This plays to Miocic's 6'4" frame, long reach and preference for rangy punches.
Miocic is competent in the clinch, but the former Division I competitor at Cleveland State still boasts excellent wrestling skills. He prefers explosive doubles and quick, well-finished singles, and while his takedown defense isn't bulletproof, it is well above average.
While he isn't on Werdum's level as a grappler, Miocic does excellent work from top position. His base is heavy, he has good posture, and he packs some power in his ground strikes—particularly when he gets to half guard. His commitment to pace and attrition is just as visible on the mat as it is on the feet.
Prediction
As the betting odds suggest, this is a close fight. Werdum is the superior grappler by any measure, but Miocic should have the wrestling advantage. On the feet, Werdum is the more diverse striker, but Miocic is a bit more fundamentally sound and works a bit faster.
If Werdum can get this to the ground, he should win it handily. That probably won't happen, though, which means that the striking and clinch phases are essential. It's essentially a wash on the feet, as both like to operate at a quick pace, with Werdum owning a substantial advantage at kicking distance and Miocic a slight one in the pocket.
This should come down to the clinch, and there's little question that Werdum is better there. It's a small edge in the grand scheme of things, but Werdum has shown before that slivers of advantage are all he needs to capitalize.
Through a mixture of judicious work at range and piling up damage in the clinch, Werdum takes a decision.
UFC 198
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark
Fabricio Werdum (-160) vs Stipe Miocic (+130)
Fabricio Werdum will aim to be the first Brazilian to defend the UFC Heavyweight Championship in his home country when he faces off against Stipe Miocic.
Werdum is arguably the greatest submission fighter in the history of the heavyweight division. ‘Vai Cavalo’ is a world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert who has notched 50 percent of his career victories via submission — including one via guillotine to win the undisputed title against Cain Velasquez. Werdum has spent years working under Rafael Cordeiro to hone his striking game and has become an excellent practitioner of Muay Thai.
Werdum’s cardio is one of the true differentiating factors in the heavyweight division. Many big men gas early in fights, but Werdum has proven to be able to go a full 25 minutes and look pretty fresh. If there is one knock against Werdum, it’s that he can start slowly in some fights, as he tends to use the first round to feel out his opponent on occasion.
Miocic has a legitimate argument to being the best boxer in the heavyweight division. The former gold gloves winner has combined his technical brilliance and his athleticism to become one of the most feared strikers in the world. His ability to slip and rip is nearly unparalleled. The Cleveland-native was also a collegiate wrestler and uses this to either keep the fight standing or put himself into positions to enact his violent ground and pound.
Stipe is a talented fighter, but he does not want to get into a transition battle with Werdum. Miocic is not in the same league with Werdum when it comes to submissions or advanced mat work.
Miocic is an athletic boxer that uses his athleticism to take advantage of opponent’s mistakes. However, Werdum has beaten a fighter with similar characteristics already. Though they are not the exact same — Miocic and Velasquez have similar traits and if Werdum can beat Cain he can beat Stipe.
PICK: Fabricio Werdum (-160)
Jacare Souza (-310) vs Vitor Belfort (+240)
Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza and Vitor Belfort clash with huge implications in the UFC middleweight division, as the winner could be in prime position to claim a title shot sooner rather than later.
Jacare’s ground game and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is among the best in the world of MMA. Souza has picked up 16 of his 22 career victories via submission including three during his six fight run in the UFC. That’s not to say his striking game is bad — unlike early in his career — as Jacare has developed an above average, pressure-based striking game to compliment his groundwork. When the fight is on the feet, Souza will likely try to get it to the cage where he can use his grappling abilities.
Jacare is one of the most complete fighters on the UFC roster and has very little holes in his game. His last two losses against Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold have proven that a great wrestler with good striking can keep Jacare uncomfortable.
Belfort is kill or be killed. Vitor has not made it to the judge’s scorecards in his past 12 fights and nine of those haven’t even made it through one round. Belfort’s phenomenal knockout abilities are thanks to his incredible speed and power. This has made the Brazilian a deadly counter puncher, but sometimes he can be inactive if his opponent doesn’t pressure in the striking game.
Despite Vitor being a BJJ black belt, he rarely wants anything to do with the ground game. However, Vitor may need to embrace those skills with Jacare’s ability to dominate the ground game and to his stellar cardio.
Jacare has long been the bridesmaid in the UFC. He could very well be fighting for the belt right now if he had not lost a controversial split decision to Romero. His abilities are strong all around and he has the ability to compete in every facet of the game. Though Vitor is well-rounded in every facet, he is unlikely to embrace the ground game at this point.
PICK: Jacare Souza (-310)
Cris ‘Cyborg’ Justino (-1200) vs Leslie Smith (+700)
We finally get to see the most dominant WMMA practitioner make her Octagon debut as Cris ‘Cyborg’ Justino faces off against Leslie Smith at 140 lbs.
Cyborg is The Terminator. She has won 13 of her 16 career bouts via T/KO with eight of those coming within the first round. Cyborg has expertly mixed her phenomenal Muay Thai training under Rafael Cordeiro with her aggression to become one of the most lethal finishers in MMA today. She also has magnificent balance to help defend takedowns, which is perfectly demonstrated in her last bout against Darla Ibragimova.
If there is one major knock against Cyborg — and it’s not even a fault you can blame her for — it’s that her competition has not been very good. The 145 lbs division in WMMA is fairly thin and the Brazilian has been handily defeating lesser competition.
Smith frequently trains with the Scrap Pack (Diaz brothers, Jake Shields and company) and it’s noticeable. Like her training partners, Smith is always moving forward and loves to be aggressive. It is her incredibly strong chin that allows her to do so, as Smith has never been knocked out — though she has one loss via Doctor Stoppage after she busted her cauliflower ear against Jessica Eye.
Smith doesn’t have much power in her hands; rather she wins thanks to an overwhelming attack. And she isn’t overly fast with her combinations.
This is a showcase fight for Cyborg. The UFC is feeding her an opponent who can take a beating and will keep moving forward. If somehow you don’t know who Cyborg is now, you will after UFC 198.
PICK: Cyborg (-1200)
Shogun Rua (+185) vs Corey Anderson (-235)
The old vs the new collide to open the main card of UFC 198 when former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua takes on Corey Anderson.
Shogun will be taking to the Octagon in front of his home crowd for the first time since his second professional fight back in 2003. Rua is one of the great power punchers in MMA history with 19 of his 23 career victories coming by T/KO. Shogun’s last victory came against Lil Nog, an opponent that was at a reach disadvantage and who fought southpaw. Those advantages for Shogun allowed him to land multiple kicks to the body that – I believe – ultimately won him that bout.
Some may worry that Rua’s chin is starting to go, but he survived a pretty tough barrage against Lil Nog and his recent knockout losses came against power punchers in Dan Henderson and Ovince Saint Preux.
Anderson — whose ‘Beastin’ 25/8 nickname is my choice for worst nickname in sports history — is the definition of a grinder. The TUF 19 winner uses his length to pick away at his opponents on the feet and his collegiate wrestling skills to get top control and beat up opponents. Anderson has some of the best cardio of any 205 lbs fighter in the UFC and that is a massive plus in the relatively shallow division.
Anderson still has tons of potential, but is relatively green in the grand scheme of things with this being just his 10th professional MMA fight.
As Shogun has matured, he has developed a more conservative striking style to try and avoid damage. Though this is a smart decision, Rua will be facing a very long, rangy opponent in Anderson, so the conservative approach may not be a great strategy in this bout. I expect Anderson to grind out the biggest win of his career.
PICK: Corey Anderson (-235)
Warlley Alves (-550) vs Bryan Barberena (+375)
Warlley Alves vs Bryan Barberena was prompted from the undercard to the main after Anderson Silva and Uriah Hall was cancelled.
Alves appears to be the future in the long line of deadly Brazilian submission specialists. Alves is a perfect 10-0 in his MMA career with six victories coming via submission and that doesn’t include his flawless run in TUF: Brazil 3. His finishing ability is evident with only three of his pro fights making it to the judge’s scorecards. Though he is a submission expert, Alves’ kickboxing skills are quite good and he can win a fight standing if need be.
The ceiling is limitless for Alves. He has only been a pro fighter since 2011 and at the age of 25, he has nowhere to go but up. There is little doubt that with seasoning Alves could be near the top of the stacked welterweight division.
Barberena is trying to prove he is more than the guy to beat Sage Northcutt and he certainly has the skills to do so. ‘Bam Bam’ has fantastic knockout power with eight of his 11 career victories coming via T/KO. Barberena also has better-than-most cardio — which was shown in his Jake Ellenberger fight.
Though he doesn’t have the same hype as Alves, Barberena is a criminally underrated prospect. A decisive victory for either of these guys will likely mean a step up in competition and potentially a bout against a top 15 opponent. I believe Alves is just too well rounded, as he will have a huge advantage on the ground and should hold his own on the feet. That being said, Barberena at this price is extremely hard to pass up even if it’s just a gambler's longshot.
Pick: Warlley Alves (-550)
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark
Fabricio Werdum (-160) vs Stipe Miocic (+130)
Fabricio Werdum will aim to be the first Brazilian to defend the UFC Heavyweight Championship in his home country when he faces off against Stipe Miocic.
Werdum is arguably the greatest submission fighter in the history of the heavyweight division. ‘Vai Cavalo’ is a world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert who has notched 50 percent of his career victories via submission — including one via guillotine to win the undisputed title against Cain Velasquez. Werdum has spent years working under Rafael Cordeiro to hone his striking game and has become an excellent practitioner of Muay Thai.
Werdum’s cardio is one of the true differentiating factors in the heavyweight division. Many big men gas early in fights, but Werdum has proven to be able to go a full 25 minutes and look pretty fresh. If there is one knock against Werdum, it’s that he can start slowly in some fights, as he tends to use the first round to feel out his opponent on occasion.
Miocic has a legitimate argument to being the best boxer in the heavyweight division. The former gold gloves winner has combined his technical brilliance and his athleticism to become one of the most feared strikers in the world. His ability to slip and rip is nearly unparalleled. The Cleveland-native was also a collegiate wrestler and uses this to either keep the fight standing or put himself into positions to enact his violent ground and pound.
Stipe is a talented fighter, but he does not want to get into a transition battle with Werdum. Miocic is not in the same league with Werdum when it comes to submissions or advanced mat work.
Miocic is an athletic boxer that uses his athleticism to take advantage of opponent’s mistakes. However, Werdum has beaten a fighter with similar characteristics already. Though they are not the exact same — Miocic and Velasquez have similar traits and if Werdum can beat Cain he can beat Stipe.
PICK: Fabricio Werdum (-160)
Jacare Souza (-310) vs Vitor Belfort (+240)
Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza and Vitor Belfort clash with huge implications in the UFC middleweight division, as the winner could be in prime position to claim a title shot sooner rather than later.
Jacare’s ground game and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is among the best in the world of MMA. Souza has picked up 16 of his 22 career victories via submission including three during his six fight run in the UFC. That’s not to say his striking game is bad — unlike early in his career — as Jacare has developed an above average, pressure-based striking game to compliment his groundwork. When the fight is on the feet, Souza will likely try to get it to the cage where he can use his grappling abilities.
Jacare is one of the most complete fighters on the UFC roster and has very little holes in his game. His last two losses against Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold have proven that a great wrestler with good striking can keep Jacare uncomfortable.
Belfort is kill or be killed. Vitor has not made it to the judge’s scorecards in his past 12 fights and nine of those haven’t even made it through one round. Belfort’s phenomenal knockout abilities are thanks to his incredible speed and power. This has made the Brazilian a deadly counter puncher, but sometimes he can be inactive if his opponent doesn’t pressure in the striking game.
Despite Vitor being a BJJ black belt, he rarely wants anything to do with the ground game. However, Vitor may need to embrace those skills with Jacare’s ability to dominate the ground game and to his stellar cardio.
Jacare has long been the bridesmaid in the UFC. He could very well be fighting for the belt right now if he had not lost a controversial split decision to Romero. His abilities are strong all around and he has the ability to compete in every facet of the game. Though Vitor is well-rounded in every facet, he is unlikely to embrace the ground game at this point.
PICK: Jacare Souza (-310)
Cris ‘Cyborg’ Justino (-1200) vs Leslie Smith (+700)
We finally get to see the most dominant WMMA practitioner make her Octagon debut as Cris ‘Cyborg’ Justino faces off against Leslie Smith at 140 lbs.
Cyborg is The Terminator. She has won 13 of her 16 career bouts via T/KO with eight of those coming within the first round. Cyborg has expertly mixed her phenomenal Muay Thai training under Rafael Cordeiro with her aggression to become one of the most lethal finishers in MMA today. She also has magnificent balance to help defend takedowns, which is perfectly demonstrated in her last bout against Darla Ibragimova.
If there is one major knock against Cyborg — and it’s not even a fault you can blame her for — it’s that her competition has not been very good. The 145 lbs division in WMMA is fairly thin and the Brazilian has been handily defeating lesser competition.
Smith frequently trains with the Scrap Pack (Diaz brothers, Jake Shields and company) and it’s noticeable. Like her training partners, Smith is always moving forward and loves to be aggressive. It is her incredibly strong chin that allows her to do so, as Smith has never been knocked out — though she has one loss via Doctor Stoppage after she busted her cauliflower ear against Jessica Eye.
Smith doesn’t have much power in her hands; rather she wins thanks to an overwhelming attack. And she isn’t overly fast with her combinations.
This is a showcase fight for Cyborg. The UFC is feeding her an opponent who can take a beating and will keep moving forward. If somehow you don’t know who Cyborg is now, you will after UFC 198.
PICK: Cyborg (-1200)
Shogun Rua (+185) vs Corey Anderson (-235)
The old vs the new collide to open the main card of UFC 198 when former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua takes on Corey Anderson.
Shogun will be taking to the Octagon in front of his home crowd for the first time since his second professional fight back in 2003. Rua is one of the great power punchers in MMA history with 19 of his 23 career victories coming by T/KO. Shogun’s last victory came against Lil Nog, an opponent that was at a reach disadvantage and who fought southpaw. Those advantages for Shogun allowed him to land multiple kicks to the body that – I believe – ultimately won him that bout.
Some may worry that Rua’s chin is starting to go, but he survived a pretty tough barrage against Lil Nog and his recent knockout losses came against power punchers in Dan Henderson and Ovince Saint Preux.
Anderson — whose ‘Beastin’ 25/8 nickname is my choice for worst nickname in sports history — is the definition of a grinder. The TUF 19 winner uses his length to pick away at his opponents on the feet and his collegiate wrestling skills to get top control and beat up opponents. Anderson has some of the best cardio of any 205 lbs fighter in the UFC and that is a massive plus in the relatively shallow division.
Anderson still has tons of potential, but is relatively green in the grand scheme of things with this being just his 10th professional MMA fight.
As Shogun has matured, he has developed a more conservative striking style to try and avoid damage. Though this is a smart decision, Rua will be facing a very long, rangy opponent in Anderson, so the conservative approach may not be a great strategy in this bout. I expect Anderson to grind out the biggest win of his career.
PICK: Corey Anderson (-235)
Warlley Alves (-550) vs Bryan Barberena (+375)
Warlley Alves vs Bryan Barberena was prompted from the undercard to the main after Anderson Silva and Uriah Hall was cancelled.
Alves appears to be the future in the long line of deadly Brazilian submission specialists. Alves is a perfect 10-0 in his MMA career with six victories coming via submission and that doesn’t include his flawless run in TUF: Brazil 3. His finishing ability is evident with only three of his pro fights making it to the judge’s scorecards. Though he is a submission expert, Alves’ kickboxing skills are quite good and he can win a fight standing if need be.
The ceiling is limitless for Alves. He has only been a pro fighter since 2011 and at the age of 25, he has nowhere to go but up. There is little doubt that with seasoning Alves could be near the top of the stacked welterweight division.
Barberena is trying to prove he is more than the guy to beat Sage Northcutt and he certainly has the skills to do so. ‘Bam Bam’ has fantastic knockout power with eight of his 11 career victories coming via T/KO. Barberena also has better-than-most cardio — which was shown in his Jake Ellenberger fight.
Though he doesn’t have the same hype as Alves, Barberena is a criminally underrated prospect. A decisive victory for either of these guys will likely mean a step up in competition and potentially a bout against a top 15 opponent. I believe Alves is just too well rounded, as he will have a huge advantage on the ground and should hold his own on the feet. That being said, Barberena at this price is extremely hard to pass up even if it’s just a gambler's longshot.
Pick: Warlley Alves (-550)
UFC 198: Latest Vegas odds, lines and betting guide for 'Werdum vs Miocic'
from Patrick L Stumberg - MMA Mania
UFC 198 Odds For The Under Card:
Demian Maia (-300) vs. Matt Brown (+230)
Thiago Santos (-360) vs. Nate Marquardt (+300)
John Lineker (-220) vs. Rob Font (+180)
Patrick Cummins (+250) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+210)
Francisco Trinaldo (-225) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+185)
Sergio Moraes (-430) vs. Luan Chagas (+345)
Zubaira Tukhugov (-210) vs. Renato Carneiro (+175)
Thoughts: We’re a little short on quality underdogs here, so let’s just stick with the grievously undervalued Lineker.
Despite being far better suited for the Flyweight division, Lineker is no stranger to fighting Bantamweights -- he spent a large portion of his time on the Brazilian circuit fighting at 135 pounds. Font, simply put, has neither the long-range arsenal nor the tremendous chain wrestling needed to slow down the relentless onslaught of "Hands of Stone." He’s not knocking out Lineker in this lifetime and it’s damn near impossible to outwork the guy.
In other words, -220 on Lineker is a gift.
Aside from him, you might consider investing in Cummins. Nogueira is long past the time where he could explode out of Cummins’ steady takedowns and he’s not shown a prolific sweep or submission arsenal off of his back. He could spark Cummins coming in, but it previously took either brutal flurries or one of the best counters I’ve seen in ages to lay out "Durkin."
He’s a fairly safe investment.
Finally, we have Maia, who is incredibly well-suited to shutting down "The Immortal." Brown simply isn’t built to play the patient game needed to wear down the Brazilian and his eagerness to trade inside plays right into Maia’s hands. Need some slightly better odds in a parlay?
Look no further.
UFC 198 Odds For The Main Card:
Fabricio Werdum (-145) vs. Stipe Miocic (+125)
Ronaldo Souza (-300) vs. Vitor Belfort (+250)
Cristiane Justino (-1700) vs. Leslie Smith (+1100)
Corey Anderson (-240) vs. Mauricio Rua (+200)
Warlley Alves (-550) vs. Bryan Barberena (+425)
Thoughts: I legitimately think Miocic has what it takes to lift the title from Werdum. As brilliant as the champ is on the mat and in the clinch, his ranged game lacks any real cohesion. He throws a solid one-two combination and powerful kicks, but struggles to blend those aspects and has been punished by lesser boxers than Miocic for it. The Croatian-American also packs a sturdy defensive wrestling game, solid cardio and excellent game planning. He gets the belt, you get the cash. It's as simple as that.
UFC 198 Best Bets:
from Patrick L Stumberg - MMA Mania
UFC 198 Odds For The Under Card:
Demian Maia (-300) vs. Matt Brown (+230)
Thiago Santos (-360) vs. Nate Marquardt (+300)
John Lineker (-220) vs. Rob Font (+180)
Patrick Cummins (+250) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+210)
Francisco Trinaldo (-225) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+185)
Sergio Moraes (-430) vs. Luan Chagas (+345)
Zubaira Tukhugov (-210) vs. Renato Carneiro (+175)
Thoughts: We’re a little short on quality underdogs here, so let’s just stick with the grievously undervalued Lineker.
Despite being far better suited for the Flyweight division, Lineker is no stranger to fighting Bantamweights -- he spent a large portion of his time on the Brazilian circuit fighting at 135 pounds. Font, simply put, has neither the long-range arsenal nor the tremendous chain wrestling needed to slow down the relentless onslaught of "Hands of Stone." He’s not knocking out Lineker in this lifetime and it’s damn near impossible to outwork the guy.
In other words, -220 on Lineker is a gift.
Aside from him, you might consider investing in Cummins. Nogueira is long past the time where he could explode out of Cummins’ steady takedowns and he’s not shown a prolific sweep or submission arsenal off of his back. He could spark Cummins coming in, but it previously took either brutal flurries or one of the best counters I’ve seen in ages to lay out "Durkin."
He’s a fairly safe investment.
Finally, we have Maia, who is incredibly well-suited to shutting down "The Immortal." Brown simply isn’t built to play the patient game needed to wear down the Brazilian and his eagerness to trade inside plays right into Maia’s hands. Need some slightly better odds in a parlay?
Look no further.
UFC 198 Odds For The Main Card:
Fabricio Werdum (-145) vs. Stipe Miocic (+125)
Ronaldo Souza (-300) vs. Vitor Belfort (+250)
Cristiane Justino (-1700) vs. Leslie Smith (+1100)
Corey Anderson (-240) vs. Mauricio Rua (+200)
Warlley Alves (-550) vs. Bryan Barberena (+425)
Thoughts: I legitimately think Miocic has what it takes to lift the title from Werdum. As brilliant as the champ is on the mat and in the clinch, his ranged game lacks any real cohesion. He throws a solid one-two combination and powerful kicks, but struggles to blend those aspects and has been punished by lesser boxers than Miocic for it. The Croatian-American also packs a sturdy defensive wrestling game, solid cardio and excellent game planning. He gets the belt, you get the cash. It's as simple as that.
UFC 198 Best Bets:
- Parlay: John Lineker and Patrick Cummins -- Bet $60 to make $62.40
- Parlay: Stipe Miocic and Demian Maia -- Bet $50 to make $100
UFC 198 Predictions
from Combat Press
from Combat Press
| Fight | Franklin’s Pick | Challands’s Pick |
| Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET) | ||
| HW Championship: Fabricio Werdum vs. Stipe Miocic | Werdum | Miocic |
| MW: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Vitor Belfort | Belfort | Souza |
| MW: Anderson Silva vs. Uriah Hall | Silva | Hall |
| 140-pound Catchweight: Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino vs. Leslie Smith | Justino | Justino |
| LHW: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Corey Anderson | Anderson | Anderson |
| Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET) | ||
| WW: Demian Maia vs. Matt Brown | Maia | Maia |
| WW: Warlley Alves vs. Bryan Barberena | Barberena | Alves |
| MW: Nate Marquardt vs. Thiago Santos | Marquardt | Marquardt |
| BW: John Lineker vs. Rob Font | Lineker | Lineker |
| Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass, 6:15 p.m. ET) | ||
| LHW: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Patrick Cummins | Nogueira | Cummins |
| LW: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Yancy Medeiros | Medeiros | Medeiros |
| WW: Sérgio Moraes vs. Luan Chagas | Chagas | Chagas |
| FW: Renato Carneiro vs. Zubaira Tukhugov | Tukhugov | Tukhugov |
UFC 198 Predictions
from Dana Becker - Fight Line
Zubaira Tukhugov over Renato Moicano via first round TKO
Sergio Moraes over Luan Chagas via first round submission
Francisco Trinaldo over Yancy Medeiros via decision
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira over Patrick Cummins via first round TKO
John Lineker over Rob Font via decision
Nate Marquardt over Thiago Santos via second round TKO
Warlley Alves over Bryan Barberena via first round submission
Demian Maia over Matt Brown via second round submission
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua over Corey Anderson via first round KO
Cris “Cyborg” Justino over Leslie Smith via first round TKO
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza over Vitor Belfort via first round TKO
Fabricio Werdum over Stipe Miocic via fourth round submission to remain UFC heavyweight champion
from Dana Becker - Fight Line
Zubaira Tukhugov over Renato Moicano via first round TKO
Sergio Moraes over Luan Chagas via first round submission
Francisco Trinaldo over Yancy Medeiros via decision
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira over Patrick Cummins via first round TKO
John Lineker over Rob Font via decision
Nate Marquardt over Thiago Santos via second round TKO
Warlley Alves over Bryan Barberena via first round submission
Demian Maia over Matt Brown via second round submission
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua over Corey Anderson via first round KO
Cris “Cyborg” Justino over Leslie Smith via first round TKO
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza over Vitor Belfort via first round TKO
Fabricio Werdum over Stipe Miocic via fourth round submission to remain UFC heavyweight champion
UFC 198
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ UFC Heavyweight Champion
+ 2x ADCC 3x BJJ World Champ
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ 10 Submission wins
+ 9 first round finishes
+ 6 KO victories
+ Deceptively effective showman
^ Baits & taunts opposition into game
+ Underrated & dangerous striker
^ Dynamic attack arsenal
+ Fluid & effective combinations
^ Superb improv & directional changes
+ Improved takedown ability
+ Excellent sweeps & scrambles
^ Capitalizes on chaos
+ Dangerous submissions/guard game
– Low L.-hand w/R.-hand availabilities
^ Dropped in 3 of his last 6 fights
+ Manages energy/recovers well
Stipe Miocic (14-2)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Regional Heavyweight Title
+ Golden Gloves Champion
+ NCAA Div. 1 Wrestler
+ 11 KO victories
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Well conditioned athlete
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Good volume & output
+ Excellent transitions
^ Mixes punches with takedowns
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Dangerous right hand
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Favors head outside singles
+ Scrambles/gets up well
– Head sometimes stagnant
– Hands often retracts low
^ Counter availabilities
– Low priority kick defense
Summary:
Headlining this legendary card in Brazil is Fabricio Werdum as he hosts Stipe Miocic in a battle for the heavyweight title. From his legendary upset of over Fedor Emelianenko to his dismantling of Cain Velasquez, you can easily make the argument for Fabricio in being atop the heavyweight history books. That said, the current champion has a tough task ahead as he meets Stipe Miocic. One of the most athletic prospects to rise amongst the heavyweight division in recent years, Miocic will now have his chance to upset an arena as he attempts to take the Brazilian’s gold.
Similar to my take on Werdum’s fight with Velasquez, this fight comes down to the environment needed for Miocic’s style to be successful, and how those terms factor into Fabricio’s strengths. Similarly to Velasquez, Miocic’s game is heavily predicated on his takedown threats & executions to open up his punches. However, Werdum is so dangerous off of his back that takedown threats are not only nullified but welcomed. Considering Miocic averages 4-takedown attempts per round, it will be interesting to see how Werdum’s unique threats affect the Croatian’s transition game. With Fabricio being able to take that option off the table, it inherently forces his opponents to take their striking to task. And in a pure striking matchup, Werdum has the more dangerous & dynamic attacks on paper.
Werdum is very unique in the fact that he is truly a double-threat in devastating proportions, whether we are talking about his renown ground game or his drastically improved striking. Under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, we have seen Fabricio’s confidence & competency in striking skyrocket since his awkward encounter with Alistair Overeem in Strikeforce. Stringing together punches, kicks, and uppercuts fluidly, it is Werdum’s ability to improvise that is so impressive. What I mean is, Fabricio can not only set you up high to come underneath, but can also change course mid-motion when he senses something awry. This preternatural instinct combined with Werdum’s ability to read & react makes him a very fun technical watch, as we saw these skills in full conjunction with his flying knee execution against Mark Hunt.
Despite said improvements, Werdum still has a lot of defensive holes that Stipe can exploit in this fight. Relying heavily on head movement & defensive-pulling, Fabricio will often keep a low & loose standing guard. Welcoming most oncoming exchanges, Werdum tends to keep a low left-hand that traditionally gets him caught with right hands over the top. With the right-cross being Miocic’s most accurate punch, this will undoubtedly be his best weapon in this fight given that right-hands were the common culprit in dropping Werdum in 3/6 of his last outings. However, many of Fabricio’s falls were arguably flops as he is known for his in-cage baits & showmanship.
Similarly to playing the Matador, Werdum will deceptively roll with punches as he relinquishes to his back. Appearing like a basketball player trying to draw an offensive foul at first glance, this madness has a method on multiple levels. The first being Fabricio’s invitation to the ambush that is his guard. As we’ve seen time and time again, Werdum can not only submit world champions here but more importantly, he creates situations to scramble and sweep his way topside(often utilizing deep-half & X-guard variations). If Fabricio’s opponents decide not to chase him into deep waters, they inherently let him off the hook if he is in fact hurt, or give him a breather at the very least. This tactic has stifled the best of killer instincts and allowed Werdum back into many fights.
The book on how to beat Werdum was once widely thought to be by pressure fighting against the fence. That said, we have seen Fabricio’s devasting clinch game put those theories to rest with his most recent statement of establishing terms on Velasquez. Although Stipe is positionally sound inside the clinch, he carries less offensive weapons there than either Cain or Fabricio as he relies heavily upon his takedown threats against the cage. I am not so certain Stipe will want to engage in takedowns against the submission ace, especially since Stipe favors a head outside single-leg, a takedown that particularly exposes your neck.
If Miocic is forced to fighting at range, he has more than enough speed & power to change this fights course. However, I feel that Fabricio has a deeper arsenal to pull from, as I see his Stipe’s low priority kick-defense not doing him any favors here. Although Stipe is a firefighter by trade, he will likely find himself in the middle of a four-alarm fire should he not find an answer early. Ultimately, I have a hard time seeing Stipe make it out of the kitchen without being burned.
Official Pick: Werdum – Inside the distance
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Fabricio Werdum (20-5-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 38 Weight: 242 lbs Reach: 77″
- Last Fight: Submission win / Cain Velasquez (6-13-15)
- Camp: Kings MMA (California)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC Heavyweight Champion
+ 2x ADCC 3x BJJ World Champ
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ 10 Submission wins
+ 9 first round finishes
+ 6 KO victories
+ Deceptively effective showman
^ Baits & taunts opposition into game
+ Underrated & dangerous striker
^ Dynamic attack arsenal
+ Fluid & effective combinations
^ Superb improv & directional changes
+ Improved takedown ability
+ Excellent sweeps & scrambles
^ Capitalizes on chaos
+ Dangerous submissions/guard game
– Low L.-hand w/R.-hand availabilities
^ Dropped in 3 of his last 6 fights
+ Manages energy/recovers well
Stipe Miocic (14-2)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’4″ Age: 33 Weight: 245 lbs Reach: 80″
- Last Fight: TKO win / Andrei Arlovski (1-2-16)
- Camp: Strong Style Fight Team (1-2-16)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional Heavyweight Title
+ Golden Gloves Champion
+ NCAA Div. 1 Wrestler
+ 11 KO victories
+ 6 first round finishes
+ Well conditioned athlete
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Good volume & output
+ Excellent transitions
^ Mixes punches with takedowns
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Dangerous right hand
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Favors head outside singles
+ Scrambles/gets up well
– Head sometimes stagnant
– Hands often retracts low
^ Counter availabilities
– Low priority kick defense
Summary:
Headlining this legendary card in Brazil is Fabricio Werdum as he hosts Stipe Miocic in a battle for the heavyweight title. From his legendary upset of over Fedor Emelianenko to his dismantling of Cain Velasquez, you can easily make the argument for Fabricio in being atop the heavyweight history books. That said, the current champion has a tough task ahead as he meets Stipe Miocic. One of the most athletic prospects to rise amongst the heavyweight division in recent years, Miocic will now have his chance to upset an arena as he attempts to take the Brazilian’s gold.
Similar to my take on Werdum’s fight with Velasquez, this fight comes down to the environment needed for Miocic’s style to be successful, and how those terms factor into Fabricio’s strengths. Similarly to Velasquez, Miocic’s game is heavily predicated on his takedown threats & executions to open up his punches. However, Werdum is so dangerous off of his back that takedown threats are not only nullified but welcomed. Considering Miocic averages 4-takedown attempts per round, it will be interesting to see how Werdum’s unique threats affect the Croatian’s transition game. With Fabricio being able to take that option off the table, it inherently forces his opponents to take their striking to task. And in a pure striking matchup, Werdum has the more dangerous & dynamic attacks on paper.
Werdum is very unique in the fact that he is truly a double-threat in devastating proportions, whether we are talking about his renown ground game or his drastically improved striking. Under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro, we have seen Fabricio’s confidence & competency in striking skyrocket since his awkward encounter with Alistair Overeem in Strikeforce. Stringing together punches, kicks, and uppercuts fluidly, it is Werdum’s ability to improvise that is so impressive. What I mean is, Fabricio can not only set you up high to come underneath, but can also change course mid-motion when he senses something awry. This preternatural instinct combined with Werdum’s ability to read & react makes him a very fun technical watch, as we saw these skills in full conjunction with his flying knee execution against Mark Hunt.
Despite said improvements, Werdum still has a lot of defensive holes that Stipe can exploit in this fight. Relying heavily on head movement & defensive-pulling, Fabricio will often keep a low & loose standing guard. Welcoming most oncoming exchanges, Werdum tends to keep a low left-hand that traditionally gets him caught with right hands over the top. With the right-cross being Miocic’s most accurate punch, this will undoubtedly be his best weapon in this fight given that right-hands were the common culprit in dropping Werdum in 3/6 of his last outings. However, many of Fabricio’s falls were arguably flops as he is known for his in-cage baits & showmanship.
Similarly to playing the Matador, Werdum will deceptively roll with punches as he relinquishes to his back. Appearing like a basketball player trying to draw an offensive foul at first glance, this madness has a method on multiple levels. The first being Fabricio’s invitation to the ambush that is his guard. As we’ve seen time and time again, Werdum can not only submit world champions here but more importantly, he creates situations to scramble and sweep his way topside(often utilizing deep-half & X-guard variations). If Fabricio’s opponents decide not to chase him into deep waters, they inherently let him off the hook if he is in fact hurt, or give him a breather at the very least. This tactic has stifled the best of killer instincts and allowed Werdum back into many fights.
The book on how to beat Werdum was once widely thought to be by pressure fighting against the fence. That said, we have seen Fabricio’s devasting clinch game put those theories to rest with his most recent statement of establishing terms on Velasquez. Although Stipe is positionally sound inside the clinch, he carries less offensive weapons there than either Cain or Fabricio as he relies heavily upon his takedown threats against the cage. I am not so certain Stipe will want to engage in takedowns against the submission ace, especially since Stipe favors a head outside single-leg, a takedown that particularly exposes your neck.
If Miocic is forced to fighting at range, he has more than enough speed & power to change this fights course. However, I feel that Fabricio has a deeper arsenal to pull from, as I see his Stipe’s low priority kick-defense not doing him any favors here. Although Stipe is a firefighter by trade, he will likely find himself in the middle of a four-alarm fire should he not find an answer early. Ultimately, I have a hard time seeing Stipe make it out of the kitchen without being burned.
Official Pick: Werdum – Inside the distance
UFC 198
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Ronaldo Souza (22-4-1)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Former Strikeforce MW Champion
+ BJJ & ADCC World Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ & Judo
+ 15 first round finishes
+ 13 Submission wins
+ 5 Ko victories
+ Heavy right-hand
^ Counters well
+ Improved footwork
+ Moves head well
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Solid takedown ability
+ Dangerous in transition
^ Active submissions & back-taking
+ Superb ground control
– Subject to lulls in activity
Vitor Belfort (25-11)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC LHW Champion
+ UFC Heavyweight Tournament Winner
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 19 first round finishes
+ 18 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ KO power
+ Improved striking
^ Effectively implementing kicks
+ Accurate left hand
^ Often sets up left kick
+/-Leans/slips heavily left
? Questionable takedown defense
– Struggles w/grappling pressure
+ Excellent killer instinct
+/-20+ year fighting career
Summary:
Serving as Curitiba’s co-main event is a battle of Brazilian standouts as Jacare Souza faces Vitor Belfort. The longtime dark horse to the division’s title, Jacare Souza will look to recover from a setback at the hands of Yoel Romero last December. Standing in his way is the living legend that is Vitor Belfort, as the former champion attempts another late run for the top.
In what is a potentially an exciting affair on paper, may surprisingly be subject to a slow start. With both fighters preferring to counter strike and showing surprising stints of action, we could experience some staring and activity lulls early on. None the less, Vitor should have the intangible advantage early given his drop of a dime killer instinct. Although Vitor is the more technical striker on paper, he may have some stylistic liabilities standing.
Displaying his retention for space & movement, Vitor often slips and operates in heavily left leaning dips. This movement will get Belfort offline of oncoming strikes, as well as set up his left uppercut-right hook returns. However, leaning left at the inopportune time could put him on course with Souza’s intercepting right hand. Demonstrating effectiveness offensively and off the counter, Belfort will have to be respectful of Souza’s improved striking abilities. That said, I suspect Belfort may be more preoccupied with Jacare’s looming takedown threats.
Stepping up his wrestling game since entering MMA, Souza has made notable upgrades to his shot entries and takedown chains. With Vitor only being shot on or taken down twice in the last four years, it is hard to make a fair assessment of where he stands. However, the Brazilian has traditionally struggled with grappling pressure as this seem to be the case most recently against Chris Weidman. I can only imagine how much Souza salivated when seeing Belfort’s lack of hip & posture awareness.
The key factor in this matchup will obviously be Belfort’s ability to avoid grappling engagements. Although Vitor will have the big cage in which to move, Jacare has excellent penetrations on his entries, not to mention reactive shots that may limit Belfort’s attack. Outside a big left hand or kick, I have a hard time seeing Vitor fair well in this fight.
Official Pick: Souza – Inside the distance
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Ronaldo Souza (22-4-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74″
- Last Fight: Decision loss / Yoel Romero (12-12-15)
- Camp: X-Gym (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former Strikeforce MW Champion
+ BJJ & ADCC World Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ & Judo
+ 15 first round finishes
+ 13 Submission wins
+ 5 Ko victories
+ Heavy right-hand
^ Counters well
+ Improved footwork
+ Moves head well
+ Underrated wrestling
^ Solid takedown ability
+ Dangerous in transition
^ Active submissions & back-taking
+ Superb ground control
– Subject to lulls in activity
Vitor Belfort (25-11)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 39 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 74″
- Last Fight: KO win / Dan Henderson (11-7-15)
- Camp: Team Belfort (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC LHW Champion
+ UFC Heavyweight Tournament Winner
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 19 first round finishes
+ 18 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ KO power
+ Improved striking
^ Effectively implementing kicks
+ Accurate left hand
^ Often sets up left kick
+/-Leans/slips heavily left
? Questionable takedown defense
– Struggles w/grappling pressure
+ Excellent killer instinct
+/-20+ year fighting career
Summary:
Serving as Curitiba’s co-main event is a battle of Brazilian standouts as Jacare Souza faces Vitor Belfort. The longtime dark horse to the division’s title, Jacare Souza will look to recover from a setback at the hands of Yoel Romero last December. Standing in his way is the living legend that is Vitor Belfort, as the former champion attempts another late run for the top.
In what is a potentially an exciting affair on paper, may surprisingly be subject to a slow start. With both fighters preferring to counter strike and showing surprising stints of action, we could experience some staring and activity lulls early on. None the less, Vitor should have the intangible advantage early given his drop of a dime killer instinct. Although Vitor is the more technical striker on paper, he may have some stylistic liabilities standing.
Displaying his retention for space & movement, Vitor often slips and operates in heavily left leaning dips. This movement will get Belfort offline of oncoming strikes, as well as set up his left uppercut-right hook returns. However, leaning left at the inopportune time could put him on course with Souza’s intercepting right hand. Demonstrating effectiveness offensively and off the counter, Belfort will have to be respectful of Souza’s improved striking abilities. That said, I suspect Belfort may be more preoccupied with Jacare’s looming takedown threats.
Stepping up his wrestling game since entering MMA, Souza has made notable upgrades to his shot entries and takedown chains. With Vitor only being shot on or taken down twice in the last four years, it is hard to make a fair assessment of where he stands. However, the Brazilian has traditionally struggled with grappling pressure as this seem to be the case most recently against Chris Weidman. I can only imagine how much Souza salivated when seeing Belfort’s lack of hip & posture awareness.
The key factor in this matchup will obviously be Belfort’s ability to avoid grappling engagements. Although Vitor will have the big cage in which to move, Jacare has excellent penetrations on his entries, not to mention reactive shots that may limit Belfort’s attack. Outside a big left hand or kick, I have a hard time seeing Vitor fair well in this fight.
Official Pick: Souza – Inside the distance
UFC 198
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Cristiane Justino (15-1-1)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Invicta FC Champion (FW)
+ Former Strikeforce FW Champ
+ BJJ Brown Belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 8 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+/-Aggressive by nature
^ Superb killer instinct
+ Improved striking
^ More technically refined
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Physically strong in clinch
^ Favors body-locks/lateral drops
+ Transitions well on top
^ Devastating ground striker
– First time making 140 lbs.
Leslie Smith (8-6-1)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Title
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 first round finish
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ High volume striker
+ Puts together strikes well
+ Solid lead left-kick
^ Often off breaks & combos
+ Improved takedown defense
+ Underrated grappling
– Head often stagnates
^ Counter availabilities
+/-Aggressive nature
^ Traditionally takes damage
Summary:
Making her long-awaited UFC debut, Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino will fight Leslie Smith in front of her home country of Brazil. Never one to turn down a fight, Leslie Smith was more than happy to welcome Cyborg to the UFC in this catchweight bout.
With insane betting lines that we haven’t seen since the Rousey era, Cris Cyborg will be the largest favorite listed on UFC 198. Although Cyborg is the justified favorite and my official pick, Leslie Smith will be the toughest opponent she has faced in some time. With Smith’s strongest assets being her durability & heart, she may be able to defy the odds long enough to capitalize on possible intangibles.
More specifically, this is Cyborg’s first cut to 140-pounds, which is just five pounds shy of a weight class that she says she cannot make. That said, it will be interesting to see her on the scale come Friday, as that may bear tells to how this weight venture south has been. Intangibles aside, it is pretty clear that Cyborg should have the on-paper advantages in this bout.
However, do not be too quick to count a fighter like Smith out. If there were such a thing as a Diaz sister, Smith would be it as she possesses similar qualities to her Cesar Gracie stablemates. A consistent volume & combination striker, Leslie puts on a pace that can often offset her opposition. Favoring a lead-leg kick to finish combinations, she is also active in striking off the breaks. Leslie’s head does tend to stagnate mid-combination, as she is usually open to counters and traditionally takes damage.
Although leaning on her durability has saved her before, Cristiane Cyborg is not a storm you sail into head first. The Brazilian has always been an explosive Muay Thai knockout artist, but in recent years she has shown the evolutions of a technically refined striker. Displaying improvements from her energy to distance management, Cyborg executes her dangerous flurries much more efficiently. Even though she carries an advantage standing, it is on the floor where I can see her closing this show.
Demonstrating solid wrestling chops, Cyborg has improved her ability to not only defend takedowns but complete them as well. Primarily operating from the body-lock, Cyborg favors lateral drops and foot sweep variations. Although Leslie shows some craftiness on the mat, Cyborg is a completely different animal from topside. Displaying solid positional awareness, Cyborg will transition seamlessly from knee-on-belly to ground strikes. I am a huge Leslie Smith fan personally and would love nothing more than to see an upset, but it is hard to pick against the baddest woman on the planet.
Official Pick: Cyborg – Inside the distance
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Cristiane Justino (15-1-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 69″
- Last Fight: KO win / Daria Ibragimova (1-16-16)
- Camp: Chute Boxe (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Moderate
Supplemental info:
+ Invicta FC Champion (FW)
+ Former Strikeforce FW Champ
+ BJJ Brown Belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 8 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+/-Aggressive by nature
^ Superb killer instinct
+ Improved striking
^ More technically refined
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Physically strong in clinch
^ Favors body-locks/lateral drops
+ Transitions well on top
^ Devastating ground striker
– First time making 140 lbs.
Leslie Smith (8-6-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’9″ Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 66″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Rin Nakai (3-19-15)
- Camp: Cesar Gracie Fight Team (California)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Title
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 first round finish
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ High volume striker
+ Puts together strikes well
+ Solid lead left-kick
^ Often off breaks & combos
+ Improved takedown defense
+ Underrated grappling
– Head often stagnates
^ Counter availabilities
+/-Aggressive nature
^ Traditionally takes damage
Summary:
Making her long-awaited UFC debut, Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino will fight Leslie Smith in front of her home country of Brazil. Never one to turn down a fight, Leslie Smith was more than happy to welcome Cyborg to the UFC in this catchweight bout.
With insane betting lines that we haven’t seen since the Rousey era, Cris Cyborg will be the largest favorite listed on UFC 198. Although Cyborg is the justified favorite and my official pick, Leslie Smith will be the toughest opponent she has faced in some time. With Smith’s strongest assets being her durability & heart, she may be able to defy the odds long enough to capitalize on possible intangibles.
More specifically, this is Cyborg’s first cut to 140-pounds, which is just five pounds shy of a weight class that she says she cannot make. That said, it will be interesting to see her on the scale come Friday, as that may bear tells to how this weight venture south has been. Intangibles aside, it is pretty clear that Cyborg should have the on-paper advantages in this bout.
However, do not be too quick to count a fighter like Smith out. If there were such a thing as a Diaz sister, Smith would be it as she possesses similar qualities to her Cesar Gracie stablemates. A consistent volume & combination striker, Leslie puts on a pace that can often offset her opposition. Favoring a lead-leg kick to finish combinations, she is also active in striking off the breaks. Leslie’s head does tend to stagnate mid-combination, as she is usually open to counters and traditionally takes damage.
Although leaning on her durability has saved her before, Cristiane Cyborg is not a storm you sail into head first. The Brazilian has always been an explosive Muay Thai knockout artist, but in recent years she has shown the evolutions of a technically refined striker. Displaying improvements from her energy to distance management, Cyborg executes her dangerous flurries much more efficiently. Even though she carries an advantage standing, it is on the floor where I can see her closing this show.
Demonstrating solid wrestling chops, Cyborg has improved her ability to not only defend takedowns but complete them as well. Primarily operating from the body-lock, Cyborg favors lateral drops and foot sweep variations. Although Leslie shows some craftiness on the mat, Cyborg is a completely different animal from topside. Displaying solid positional awareness, Cyborg will transition seamlessly from knee-on-belly to ground strikes. I am a huge Leslie Smith fan personally and would love nothing more than to see an upset, but it is hard to pick against the baddest woman on the planet.
Official Pick: Cyborg – Inside the distance
UFC 198
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Mauricio Rua (23-10)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC LHW Champion
+ Pride Grand Prix Winner (’05)
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 19 KO victories
+ 17 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Heavy right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated takedown ability
+ Devastating ground striker
– Often struggles in scrambles
^ Favors turtle-dives & guard rolls
+/-Aggressive by nature
^ Dropped or stopped in last 6/8
Corey Anderson (8-1)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ TUF 19 Winner
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 2x All-American Wrestler
+ 3 KO victories
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Training w/Mark Henry & Co.
^ Fight-to-fight improvements
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ High volume output
+ Excellent footwork
+ Good strike to takedown transitions
^ Favors double-legs
+ Solid top game
^ Active ground striker
Summary:
In a crossroads fight in the light-heavyweight division, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will take on Corey “Beastin 25/8” Anderson. An absolute legend in the world of mixed martial arts, Shogun will attempt to maintain relevancy with a win in his hometown of Curitiba. As one of the division’s more promising prospects, Corey Anderson will look the take the next step as he faces by far the biggest name of his career.
As a long time fan of this sport, it is hard to fathom Shogun’s recent state since following him from his 2005-run with Pride. The talent was never a question with Mauricio, as we saw in fast ascensions with both Brazilian Jiu-jitsu & MMA. Embodying the quintessential Chute Boxe style, Shogun stormed onto the scene in an aggressive awe-inspiring manner. That said, we have seen him progress little progress since making his way into the Octagon. Granted many Pride fighters had difficulty adjusting from overseas, and Shogun’s slew of knee surgeries between ’07-’09 did not help, but he was ultimately able to return and score a title.
Although Shogun returned with similar successes, we saw the effects of his Chute Boxe stylings as he steadily diminished in front of us. Since losing his title to Jon Jones, we have seen Shogun come into fights with vast inconsistencies from his lack of motivation to physical state. Even more disturbing, Mauricio has demonstrated a decreasing ability to take a shot, as what’s left of his chin often keeps him in fights longer than he arguably should be. Even though Anderson is not a knockout striker, Shogun’s classic Thai marching may not bode well for him in this matchup.
Displaying excellent distance management as he moves his feet, Anderson’s footwork will likely be the biggest problem for a plotting Shogun. Training under the tutelage of Mark Henry & Co. for the better part of two years, we have seen consistent fight-to-fight improvements from Anderson. Even though his overall output is his biggest strength, it is his transition game that makes him effective. Similarly to his stablemate Frankie Edgar, Anderson mixes in volume & variety to keep his opposition behind the 8-ball.
However, despite Corey’s ever-growing offense, he still has shown defensive liabilities that could see the light in this fight. Like many high-volume strikers, Anderson runs the risk of getting hit early & often if his entries are not technically sound from hands to feet. We saw him taken to task on this in fights with Gian Villante & Tom Lawlor, as both men were able to score big with right hands. Since Mauricio’s right-hand is a threat that is still intact, Corey will have to be mindful in his approach as this will be a live threat throughout the contest. Ultimately, if Shogun can’t get a beat on Anderson early, I feel he will be subject of a stick & move tutorial.
Official Pick: Anderson – Decision
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Mauricio Rua (23-10)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 76″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Little Nog (8-1-15)
- Camp: Kings MMA (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC LHW Champion
+ Pride Grand Prix Winner (’05)
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 19 KO victories
+ 17 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Heavy right hand
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Underrated takedown ability
+ Devastating ground striker
– Often struggles in scrambles
^ Favors turtle-dives & guard rolls
+/-Aggressive by nature
^ Dropped or stopped in last 6/8
Corey Anderson (8-1)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 26 Weight: 205 lbs Reach: 79″
- Last Fight: Decision win / Tom Lawlor (3-5-16)
- Camp: Ricardo Almeida BJJ (New Jersey)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ TUF 19 Winner
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 2x All-American Wrestler
+ 3 KO victories
+ 3 first round finishes
+ Training w/Mark Henry & Co.
^ Fight-to-fight improvements
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ High volume output
+ Excellent footwork
+ Good strike to takedown transitions
^ Favors double-legs
+ Solid top game
^ Active ground striker
Summary:
In a crossroads fight in the light-heavyweight division, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will take on Corey “Beastin 25/8” Anderson. An absolute legend in the world of mixed martial arts, Shogun will attempt to maintain relevancy with a win in his hometown of Curitiba. As one of the division’s more promising prospects, Corey Anderson will look the take the next step as he faces by far the biggest name of his career.
As a long time fan of this sport, it is hard to fathom Shogun’s recent state since following him from his 2005-run with Pride. The talent was never a question with Mauricio, as we saw in fast ascensions with both Brazilian Jiu-jitsu & MMA. Embodying the quintessential Chute Boxe style, Shogun stormed onto the scene in an aggressive awe-inspiring manner. That said, we have seen him progress little progress since making his way into the Octagon. Granted many Pride fighters had difficulty adjusting from overseas, and Shogun’s slew of knee surgeries between ’07-’09 did not help, but he was ultimately able to return and score a title.
Although Shogun returned with similar successes, we saw the effects of his Chute Boxe stylings as he steadily diminished in front of us. Since losing his title to Jon Jones, we have seen Shogun come into fights with vast inconsistencies from his lack of motivation to physical state. Even more disturbing, Mauricio has demonstrated a decreasing ability to take a shot, as what’s left of his chin often keeps him in fights longer than he arguably should be. Even though Anderson is not a knockout striker, Shogun’s classic Thai marching may not bode well for him in this matchup.
Displaying excellent distance management as he moves his feet, Anderson’s footwork will likely be the biggest problem for a plotting Shogun. Training under the tutelage of Mark Henry & Co. for the better part of two years, we have seen consistent fight-to-fight improvements from Anderson. Even though his overall output is his biggest strength, it is his transition game that makes him effective. Similarly to his stablemate Frankie Edgar, Anderson mixes in volume & variety to keep his opposition behind the 8-ball.
However, despite Corey’s ever-growing offense, he still has shown defensive liabilities that could see the light in this fight. Like many high-volume strikers, Anderson runs the risk of getting hit early & often if his entries are not technically sound from hands to feet. We saw him taken to task on this in fights with Gian Villante & Tom Lawlor, as both men were able to score big with right hands. Since Mauricio’s right-hand is a threat that is still intact, Corey will have to be mindful in his approach as this will be a live threat throughout the contest. Ultimately, if Shogun can’t get a beat on Anderson early, I feel he will be subject of a stick & move tutorial.
Official Pick: Anderson – Decision
UFC 198
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Warlley Alves (10-0)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ TUF Brazil 3 Winner
+ Multiple Kickboxing Accolades
+ 7 Submission wins
+ 1 KO victory
+ 4 first round finishes
+ Heavy handed striker
^ Effective right hand
+/-Very aggressive by nature
^ High output & emphasis in 1st round
+ Physically strong inside clinch
^ Favors takedowns from here
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ 80% takedown defense
+ Dangerous Guillotine choke
^ 5 finishes including TUF
– Shows some trouble w/southpaws
^ Jab finding & kick availabilities
– Struggles w/pressure
– Propensity to fade
Bryan Barberena (11-3)
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles (MW & WW)
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 8 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 5 first round finishes
+ Experienced at multiple weights
+ Improved technical aggression
^ Grows in pace & pressure
+ Adjusts well inside fights
+/-Slow starter / strong finisher
+ Accurate check right hook
+ Active clinch striker
^ Dangerous elbows
+ Competent ground game
^ Solid positional awareness
+ Good getup urgency
– Head sometimes stagnant off strikes
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Durable chin / never stopped
Summary:
Kicking off the main card in Curitiba is fun welterweight scrap, as TUF Brazil winner Warlley Alves locks up with the gritty Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena. One of the more promising young Brazilian prospects, Warlley Alves has made strong statements and impressions thus far with the organization. Warlley will look to keep his undefeated record intact as he meets the always-dangerous Bam Bam Barberena. A quintessential underdog, Bryan will look to score another upset against what is his third straight undefeated prospect the UFC has given him.
Let me first thank you for not immediately condemning my pick before actually reading my explanation. As my positive winning ratio per card and overall would suggest, I do not make an official pick without reason. If you have read my work, then you know that I do not corners in my research as I usually bring a solid evidence-based argument to the table(whether you agree with it or not). I will attempt to do the same here, as I explain my take on why conforming to the common narrative can be dangerous as I feel this is a closer fight than the line suggests.
Although I do feel Warlley is the justified favorite, the jury is still out on this young fighter as his sample size of scenarios are still relatively small. That said, I believe Alves is the more superior striker, wrestler, and submission artist on paper. But as I stated(and as we saw) in my last breakdown on Krylov-Barroso, consistent pace & pressure can undwind on-paper advantages. Even though Warlley shows very few deficiencies technically, his lone knock thus far is that he has the propensity to fade as the fight goes on.
The term “front-runner” can be tricky since it can be used generally or perceived negatively. But the truth is, that some of our favorite fighters fit under this umbrella from Mike Tyson to BJ Penn. I also feel Warlley Alves could be a similar fit to that prototype based upon his fights inside the Octagon. Now again, me feeling that Alves may operate better as the hammer as opposed to the nail is no way a condemnation of his skills. But as we saw in his fight with Alan Jouban, Alves was clearly facing some in-fight adversities that he did not react favorably to.
What I found telling, was that although Alan hit him with solid shots to the body that help turn the tide, Warlley succeeded momentum before the damaging blows ever came. Like many aggressive, out of the gate finishers, we often see the strongest forces lose steam when not able to complete their heavily emphasized objectives. Not only did Warlley’s physical(and arguably emotional) tank fade, we also saw him call for referee interventions multiple times in that match for phantom fouls. That said, I am not here to condemn Alves for that lone performance, much less the controversial decision that followed.
However, in watching Warlley’s fights since, he showed similar tells even in bouts he was clearly controlling. In his fight with Nordine Taleb for example, we saw Alves score a knockdown and takedowns in each round as he dictated the overall pace and clearly won the frames. That said, Warlley still consistently took deep breaths and checked the clock throughout the back end of rounds. Again, these are not condemnations, but they are consistent tendencies you can see when reviewing his UFC tape. Although he out-marks his opposition on paper, that same paper also points to durable pressure fighters posing the most problems for this prospect.
Enter Bryan Barberena, a deceptively slow burn, it is very easy to underestimate him upon first glance. It is also hard to confidently pick his most likely path to a finish, given that he is not your typical one-shot knockout or submission artist. That said, the previously mentioned key intangibles that show to be effective with Warlley is something Bryan has in spades. Not only is he durable, but he is also a solid southpaw striker. Although Alves was able to top his southpaw opposition in fights with Marcio Lyoto & Alan Jouban, he showed difficulty in establishing his punches and a surprising availability to kicks(especially against Marcio in a bout he was controlling). Barberena also throws a deceptive check right hook that could find it’s home on an oncoming, aggressive Alves.
That said, Barberena will likely be the one with a target for right-hands as those have been consistent culprits throughout his career. Being a southpaw the right cross is naturally open, but more importantly, Bryan keeps a low guard as his sometimes stagnant head opens him up for counters. He will have to be mindful of this as he will be playing with fire when comes to the right hand of Alves. With the praise & pontification going the way of the Brazilian prospect, there is little talk of his wrestling as I feel this will be a key factor for a victory here. Warlley wields an underrated takedown game that could help him control portions of this fight and perhaps catch his breath should he not find a finish.
Even though Warlley should have an advantage from topside, Bryan demonstrates a good urgency & technique in getting up or creating scrambles. More importantly, Bryan displays excellent positional awareness as he rarely(if ever) gives his head & neck in transition, much less from the top or bottom. In facing one of the best Guillotine applicators in the division, these technique tendencies become very important, as I am sure Bryan’s coach John Crouch has worked this extensively with him. Not to mention Alves gets most of his Guillotines from the clinch, a place where Barberena is active with dangerous elbows & strikes off the break. Honestly, I feel that claiming certainty for either side is silly given each man’s sample size and the game they’re playing, as I strongly caution any plays on this match. Ultimately, I stand by my pick as I feel the 5-1 odds in Alves favor turns into a “pick’em” should this fight go past the first.
Official Pick: Barberena – Inside the distance
from TheMixedMartialAnalyst
Warlley Alves (10-0)
Staple info:
- Height: 5’11” Age: 25 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 72″
- Last Fight: Sub win / Colby Covington (12-12-15)
- Camp: X-Gym (Brazil)
- Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ TUF Brazil 3 Winner
+ Multiple Kickboxing Accolades
+ 7 Submission wins
+ 1 KO victory
+ 4 first round finishes
+ Heavy handed striker
^ Effective right hand
+/-Very aggressive by nature
^ High output & emphasis in 1st round
+ Physically strong inside clinch
^ Favors takedowns from here
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ 80% takedown defense
+ Dangerous Guillotine choke
^ 5 finishes including TUF
– Shows some trouble w/southpaws
^ Jab finding & kick availabilities
– Struggles w/pressure
– Propensity to fade
Bryan Barberena (11-3)
Staple info:
- Height: 6’0″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 72.5″
- Last Fight: Submission win / Sage Northcutt (1-30-16)
- Camp: MMA Lab (Arizona)
- Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
- Risk Management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles (MW & WW)
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 8 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 5 first round finishes
+ Experienced at multiple weights
+ Improved technical aggression
^ Grows in pace & pressure
+ Adjusts well inside fights
+/-Slow starter / strong finisher
+ Accurate check right hook
+ Active clinch striker
^ Dangerous elbows
+ Competent ground game
^ Solid positional awareness
+ Good getup urgency
– Head sometimes stagnant off strikes
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Durable chin / never stopped
Summary:
Kicking off the main card in Curitiba is fun welterweight scrap, as TUF Brazil winner Warlley Alves locks up with the gritty Bryan “Bam Bam” Barberena. One of the more promising young Brazilian prospects, Warlley Alves has made strong statements and impressions thus far with the organization. Warlley will look to keep his undefeated record intact as he meets the always-dangerous Bam Bam Barberena. A quintessential underdog, Bryan will look to score another upset against what is his third straight undefeated prospect the UFC has given him.
Let me first thank you for not immediately condemning my pick before actually reading my explanation. As my positive winning ratio per card and overall would suggest, I do not make an official pick without reason. If you have read my work, then you know that I do not corners in my research as I usually bring a solid evidence-based argument to the table(whether you agree with it or not). I will attempt to do the same here, as I explain my take on why conforming to the common narrative can be dangerous as I feel this is a closer fight than the line suggests.
Although I do feel Warlley is the justified favorite, the jury is still out on this young fighter as his sample size of scenarios are still relatively small. That said, I believe Alves is the more superior striker, wrestler, and submission artist on paper. But as I stated(and as we saw) in my last breakdown on Krylov-Barroso, consistent pace & pressure can undwind on-paper advantages. Even though Warlley shows very few deficiencies technically, his lone knock thus far is that he has the propensity to fade as the fight goes on.
The term “front-runner” can be tricky since it can be used generally or perceived negatively. But the truth is, that some of our favorite fighters fit under this umbrella from Mike Tyson to BJ Penn. I also feel Warlley Alves could be a similar fit to that prototype based upon his fights inside the Octagon. Now again, me feeling that Alves may operate better as the hammer as opposed to the nail is no way a condemnation of his skills. But as we saw in his fight with Alan Jouban, Alves was clearly facing some in-fight adversities that he did not react favorably to.
What I found telling, was that although Alan hit him with solid shots to the body that help turn the tide, Warlley succeeded momentum before the damaging blows ever came. Like many aggressive, out of the gate finishers, we often see the strongest forces lose steam when not able to complete their heavily emphasized objectives. Not only did Warlley’s physical(and arguably emotional) tank fade, we also saw him call for referee interventions multiple times in that match for phantom fouls. That said, I am not here to condemn Alves for that lone performance, much less the controversial decision that followed.
However, in watching Warlley’s fights since, he showed similar tells even in bouts he was clearly controlling. In his fight with Nordine Taleb for example, we saw Alves score a knockdown and takedowns in each round as he dictated the overall pace and clearly won the frames. That said, Warlley still consistently took deep breaths and checked the clock throughout the back end of rounds. Again, these are not condemnations, but they are consistent tendencies you can see when reviewing his UFC tape. Although he out-marks his opposition on paper, that same paper also points to durable pressure fighters posing the most problems for this prospect.
Enter Bryan Barberena, a deceptively slow burn, it is very easy to underestimate him upon first glance. It is also hard to confidently pick his most likely path to a finish, given that he is not your typical one-shot knockout or submission artist. That said, the previously mentioned key intangibles that show to be effective with Warlley is something Bryan has in spades. Not only is he durable, but he is also a solid southpaw striker. Although Alves was able to top his southpaw opposition in fights with Marcio Lyoto & Alan Jouban, he showed difficulty in establishing his punches and a surprising availability to kicks(especially against Marcio in a bout he was controlling). Barberena also throws a deceptive check right hook that could find it’s home on an oncoming, aggressive Alves.
That said, Barberena will likely be the one with a target for right-hands as those have been consistent culprits throughout his career. Being a southpaw the right cross is naturally open, but more importantly, Bryan keeps a low guard as his sometimes stagnant head opens him up for counters. He will have to be mindful of this as he will be playing with fire when comes to the right hand of Alves. With the praise & pontification going the way of the Brazilian prospect, there is little talk of his wrestling as I feel this will be a key factor for a victory here. Warlley wields an underrated takedown game that could help him control portions of this fight and perhaps catch his breath should he not find a finish.
Even though Warlley should have an advantage from topside, Bryan demonstrates a good urgency & technique in getting up or creating scrambles. More importantly, Bryan displays excellent positional awareness as he rarely(if ever) gives his head & neck in transition, much less from the top or bottom. In facing one of the best Guillotine applicators in the division, these technique tendencies become very important, as I am sure Bryan’s coach John Crouch has worked this extensively with him. Not to mention Alves gets most of his Guillotines from the clinch, a place where Barberena is active with dangerous elbows & strikes off the break. Honestly, I feel that claiming certainty for either side is silly given each man’s sample size and the game they’re playing, as I strongly caution any plays on this match. Ultimately, I stand by my pick as I feel the 5-1 odds in Alves favor turns into a “pick’em” should this fight go past the first.
Official Pick: Barberena – Inside the distance
UFC 198 predictions: 'Werdum vs Miocic' Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
from MMA Mania
205 lbs.: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Patrick Cummins
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira's (21-7) surprise upset of Rashad Evans gave way not to a resurgence, but to one of the most brutal knockout losses in recent memory, a 44-second mauling from Anthony Johnson. He returned to action one year later against rival Mauricio Runa, whom Nogueira rocked early before "Shogun" took control with his wrestling.
"Minotouro" has knocked out and submitted six opponents apiece.
Patrick Cummins (8-3) put his disastrous debut loss to Daniel Cormier behind him with three straight wins, including a decision over world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu player Antonio Carlos Jr. He's since gone 1-2, a beatdown of Rafael "Feijao" sandwiched between knockout losses to Ovince Saint Preux and Glover Teixeira.
"Durkin" scored stoppages in six of his eight victories.
He's not the physical ruin his brother is, but it's hard to deny that the game has passed by "Little Nog." Though he's still got some sneaky power in his hands and is fairly durable when not eating Johnson's bunker-busters, he's lost some speed and his bottom game has proven inadequate against the latest batch of wrestlers.
In short, he no longer has the tools to halt Cummins' relentless takedown onslaught. "Durkin's" pressure is tremendous and his ground-and-pound wilting. The American is also tougher than his three stoppage losses would suggest, limiting the possibility of Nogueira finds a one-hitter quitter. Cummins does his thing and chips away at Nogueira for either a late technical knockout or unanimous decision.
Prediction: Cummins via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Yancy Medeiros
The hulking Francisco Trinaldo (19-4) struggled with consistency early in his UFC career, going 4-3 in his first seven fights in the promotion. He's since won five straight over the likes of Norman Parke, Chad Laprise and Ross Pearson.
"Massaranduba" will give up two inches of height to the 5'10" Medeiros, who is also nine years younger than the Brazilian.
Hawaii's Yancy Medeiros (12-3) opened his UFC career winless (0-2) with one "No Contest" because of marijuana, but put together two straight submissions over Damon Jackson and Joe Proctor to pick up some hype. A brutal knockout loss to Dustin Poirier put a damper on that, although he did manage to eke past John Makdessi in Dec. 2015.
He has knocked out six foes and submitted another three.
Now that he actually has the cardio to bully people for all three rounds, Trinaldo's become a force to be reckoned with. He's one of the largest fighters in the division and has tightened up his striking considerably. Medeiros has some power and accuracy of his own, but I'm just not sure he can stop the Brazilian bulldozer's advance.
"Massaranduba's" powerful kicks and knees ought to carry the day, just as they did against Pearson. The Brazilian walks through some heavy licks to take the decision on volume and body work.
Prediction: Trinaldo via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Sergio Moraes vs. Luan Chagas
Though he lost in his Octagon debut against Cezar Ferreira, Sergio Moraes (10-2) demonstrated his elite grappling chops with a rear-naked choke of Renee Forte and gorgeous mounted triangle of Neil Magny. He's fought just twice since 2013 due to injury, picking up wins over Peter Sobotta and Omari Akhmedov.
He has submitted seven professional opponents, six in the first round.
Luan Chagas (14-1) has yet to see the judges in his mixed martial arts (MMA) career, going past the second round just once in 15 fights. "Tarzan" is currently riding a nine-fight win streak dating back to 2013.
He replaces Kamaru Usman on approximately two weeks' notice.
Watching one of Chagas' recent fights left me less-than-impressed. The 22-year old has decidedly ugly boxing and mediocre wrestling, while he's massively outclassed on the Brazilian jiu-jitsu front. He doesn't even have the striking precision necessary to exploit Moraes' historical durability issues.
Moraes would have been utterly demolished by Usman. Instead, he gets a chance to shine. He's up there with Gunnar Nelson and possibly even Demian Maia in terms of pure jiu-jitsu, and he's up against an opponent ill-equipped to exploit the lacking aras of his game. Moraes chokes him out in a hurry.
Prediction: Moraes via first-round submission
145 lbs.: Renato Carneiro vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Following a successful run on the Brazilian circuit, Renato Carneiro (9-0-1) joined UFC in 2014, debuting in December against Finland's Tom Niinimaki. The Brazilian turned in a dominant performance en route to a second-round submission finish, the fifth rear-naked choke victory his his career.
"Moicano" was set to face Mirsad Bektic last year before withdrawing because of injury, making this just his first fight since his debut.
Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3) opened his UFC career with a pair of solid victories, outscoring power-puncher Douglas Andrade in his debut and demolishing Ernest Chavez his next time out. Injury kept the Chechen striker out of the cage until last December, when he took a split decision over former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Phillipe Nover.
Tukhugov has now won nine straight since a 2012 knockout loss.
This right here? This is a damn good fight. Both Carneiro and Tukhugov are young and loaded with potential -- I fully expect to see one or both of them in the Top 15
within the next two years. As far as this fight, I favor Tukhugov for his speed, takedown defense and lack of ring rust.
When he's not obsessed with finding a kill shot, Tukhugov is a whirlwind of precise power punches and fancy kicks. Carneiro has a three-inch height advantage and a very effective jab that could pay dividends, but I'm not sure he can maintain the necessary discipline in the face of Tukhugov's pressure. The Chechen steadily takes over for a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Tukhugov via unanimous decision
from MMA Mania
205 lbs.: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Patrick Cummins
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira's (21-7) surprise upset of Rashad Evans gave way not to a resurgence, but to one of the most brutal knockout losses in recent memory, a 44-second mauling from Anthony Johnson. He returned to action one year later against rival Mauricio Runa, whom Nogueira rocked early before "Shogun" took control with his wrestling.
"Minotouro" has knocked out and submitted six opponents apiece.
Patrick Cummins (8-3) put his disastrous debut loss to Daniel Cormier behind him with three straight wins, including a decision over world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu player Antonio Carlos Jr. He's since gone 1-2, a beatdown of Rafael "Feijao" sandwiched between knockout losses to Ovince Saint Preux and Glover Teixeira.
"Durkin" scored stoppages in six of his eight victories.
He's not the physical ruin his brother is, but it's hard to deny that the game has passed by "Little Nog." Though he's still got some sneaky power in his hands and is fairly durable when not eating Johnson's bunker-busters, he's lost some speed and his bottom game has proven inadequate against the latest batch of wrestlers.
In short, he no longer has the tools to halt Cummins' relentless takedown onslaught. "Durkin's" pressure is tremendous and his ground-and-pound wilting. The American is also tougher than his three stoppage losses would suggest, limiting the possibility of Nogueira finds a one-hitter quitter. Cummins does his thing and chips away at Nogueira for either a late technical knockout or unanimous decision.
Prediction: Cummins via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Yancy Medeiros
The hulking Francisco Trinaldo (19-4) struggled with consistency early in his UFC career, going 4-3 in his first seven fights in the promotion. He's since won five straight over the likes of Norman Parke, Chad Laprise and Ross Pearson.
"Massaranduba" will give up two inches of height to the 5'10" Medeiros, who is also nine years younger than the Brazilian.
Hawaii's Yancy Medeiros (12-3) opened his UFC career winless (0-2) with one "No Contest" because of marijuana, but put together two straight submissions over Damon Jackson and Joe Proctor to pick up some hype. A brutal knockout loss to Dustin Poirier put a damper on that, although he did manage to eke past John Makdessi in Dec. 2015.
He has knocked out six foes and submitted another three.
Now that he actually has the cardio to bully people for all three rounds, Trinaldo's become a force to be reckoned with. He's one of the largest fighters in the division and has tightened up his striking considerably. Medeiros has some power and accuracy of his own, but I'm just not sure he can stop the Brazilian bulldozer's advance.
"Massaranduba's" powerful kicks and knees ought to carry the day, just as they did against Pearson. The Brazilian walks through some heavy licks to take the decision on volume and body work.
Prediction: Trinaldo via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Sergio Moraes vs. Luan Chagas
Though he lost in his Octagon debut against Cezar Ferreira, Sergio Moraes (10-2) demonstrated his elite grappling chops with a rear-naked choke of Renee Forte and gorgeous mounted triangle of Neil Magny. He's fought just twice since 2013 due to injury, picking up wins over Peter Sobotta and Omari Akhmedov.
He has submitted seven professional opponents, six in the first round.
Luan Chagas (14-1) has yet to see the judges in his mixed martial arts (MMA) career, going past the second round just once in 15 fights. "Tarzan" is currently riding a nine-fight win streak dating back to 2013.
He replaces Kamaru Usman on approximately two weeks' notice.
Watching one of Chagas' recent fights left me less-than-impressed. The 22-year old has decidedly ugly boxing and mediocre wrestling, while he's massively outclassed on the Brazilian jiu-jitsu front. He doesn't even have the striking precision necessary to exploit Moraes' historical durability issues.
Moraes would have been utterly demolished by Usman. Instead, he gets a chance to shine. He's up there with Gunnar Nelson and possibly even Demian Maia in terms of pure jiu-jitsu, and he's up against an opponent ill-equipped to exploit the lacking aras of his game. Moraes chokes him out in a hurry.
Prediction: Moraes via first-round submission
145 lbs.: Renato Carneiro vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Following a successful run on the Brazilian circuit, Renato Carneiro (9-0-1) joined UFC in 2014, debuting in December against Finland's Tom Niinimaki. The Brazilian turned in a dominant performance en route to a second-round submission finish, the fifth rear-naked choke victory his his career.
"Moicano" was set to face Mirsad Bektic last year before withdrawing because of injury, making this just his first fight since his debut.
Zubaira Tukhugov (18-3) opened his UFC career with a pair of solid victories, outscoring power-puncher Douglas Andrade in his debut and demolishing Ernest Chavez his next time out. Injury kept the Chechen striker out of the cage until last December, when he took a split decision over former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Phillipe Nover.
Tukhugov has now won nine straight since a 2012 knockout loss.
This right here? This is a damn good fight. Both Carneiro and Tukhugov are young and loaded with potential -- I fully expect to see one or both of them in the Top 15
within the next two years. As far as this fight, I favor Tukhugov for his speed, takedown defense and lack of ring rust.
When he's not obsessed with finding a kill shot, Tukhugov is a whirlwind of precise power punches and fancy kicks. Carneiro has a three-inch height advantage and a very effective jab that could pay dividends, but I'm not sure he can maintain the necessary discipline in the face of Tukhugov's pressure. The Chechen steadily takes over for a competitive decision win.
Prediction: Tukhugov via unanimous decision
