** BIG GAME PLAY---WAC GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON:
Nevada -3
-Wow, what a difference a year makes...Last year, this Tulsa team was riding high, playing solid ball, winning 8 games, which got them into their first Bowl Game since 1991....Now one year later, and after 6 weeks on the gridiron, and they are still trying to get their first win over a Div 1 A opponent....WTF?....Well, I said it earlier this Tulsa team is a one year trick Phony who was completely exposed for being weak by GT squad that blew them out in the Humanitarian Bowl by 42 pts...Tulsa returns 17 starters this year, but this team is not very good, and this years tougher non-conf schedule, unlike last years, to start the season, is continuing to show everyone just how overrated they really are...In this game today, I dont see them getting that elusive first win over a Div 1 A opponent in Nevada...and after it is all said and done...they will leave here with another humiliating loss...Below are some of the Keys to why I feel Nevada will be able to control this game from start to finish....resulting in another solid win...
Key Factor #1: Nevada's strength on Offense, its Running Game, vs Tulsa's weakness on Defense and their inability to stop anyone on the ground...
Nevada's running game is currently ranked 4th in the WAC averaging 161.9 yards per game and has scored 15 TDs so far this year....One of the main weapons for the Wolfpack the past couple of years have been the solid running of RB Kretschmer (All WAC)...and even though he has not been used as much as he has been in the past seasons, due to more emphasis being placed on the passing game, he has still has been solid and is the WAC's second leading rusher this year, only behind La Tech's Moats....Kretschmer this year has gained 636 yards and averaged a solid 5.0 ypc...But, Kretschmer also has some solid help in the backfield in his backups Mitchell 4.5 ypc and Carter averaging 6.3 ypc....
Today, I expect that Kretschmer and Co. will be used as the primary attack on Offensive, as the Golden Hurricane's weakness this year on Defense has been their inability to stop anyone's running game...This year, the Golden Hurricanes are currently ranked 7th against the run in the WAC, and giving up a whopping 205 yards per a game average on the ground...On the road this year, they have not fared any better as each game on the road played has seen their opponents ypc increase considerably...at Kansas they gave up 112 yards on the ground and 3.1 ypc.....at Ok St they gave up 295 yards running and 5.1 ypc....then on their most recent road game at Hawaii (Worst WAC Run Offense averaging at the time only 17 yards rushing per game)...they gave up 128 yards on 23 carries and 5.6 ypc...This simply not good news for this Tulsa Run Defense who are on the road again, but now will have to face possibly the most talented RB they will face all year in Kretschmer...
In todays game, I am expecting Kretschmer and Mitchell to have an easier time running the ball vs Tulsa, who doesnt have such a stingent Run Def as Rice has...Also, I feel that Nevada's running game should be able to pick apart Tulsa's 3-3-5 Defense just like Boise St did last week, rushing for over 250 yards and 4.7 ypc....A more solid sign for the Wolfpack Run Offense though, was their ability to run for almost 200 yards and 4 TDs against Rice's top ranked run stuffing unit that has only allowed 120 yards per a game on the ground all year...
Key Factor #2: Tulsa's lack of an effective pass rush...vs Nevada's Air Wolf Attack..
Last years weakness on Defense for Tulsa, was in its inbility to effective rush the passer....and so far this year, this problem seems to have simply continued to hurt their Defenses ability to also stop the run.....So far this year...Tulsa has only been able to record 3 sacks in their 6 games ( 2 vs Kansas and 1 vs Navy)....Nevada's O-Line, on the other hand, has given up a lot of sacks early on in the year, but in their last 3 games they have tightened up their play and only allowed 3 sacks...This is also a result of them utilizing the running game more in the mix as well....Tulsa, wont find it any easier with their 3-3-5 Defense to effectively stop Nevada's running game or effectively be able to rush the passer and this will put to much pressure on their secondary, which now must go up against the nations 10th ranked passing attack.....
Without being able to stop Nevada's Kretschmer...Tulsa wont have a chance at effectively pressuring Nevada's QB Rowe...and this should lead to Nevada to move the ball at will against Tulsa's Defense today....Nevada's Passing Offense is currently averaging 254.4 ypg through the air this year...and Tulsa will have its work cut out for them today facing the WAC's #1 ranked Pass Offense and the #3 passing QB in Rowe....This will be straight weeks that Tulsa's Defense will be up against the Conferences Best Offenses...Hawaii, Boise St, and now Nevada....
Key Factor #3: Nevada's Air Wolf Attack...
Currently ranked 10th in the land in Passing Offense....and number #1 in the Conf in Passing Offense....QB Rowe, will gets the nod take over complete control of the Offense, after several weeks of sharing duties with other QBs...This should help to provide this already potent Offense they possess a lot more stability and continuity....something they were lacking by using the revolving QBs system....QB Rowe is solid and he currently is ranked as the WACs third leading passer with over 1300 yards passing on the year so far...Todays, effective running of Kretschmer and Mitchell should help to open up the passing game and that should result in a lot of yards leading to a lot of points for this already high scoring Offense at home....
Key Factor #4: Nevada playing this one at home...
These two teams simply remind me of my Hawaii Warriors....Good at home, but shitty as hell on the road....Tulsa this year is currently 0-3 on the road...where they have averaged just 13 pts per game, while allowing its opponents to average 34 pts per a game.....Nevada, on the other hand, is currently 3-0 at home and has outscored its opponents by a combined 132-30....Their most impressive win this season came in last weeks home game vs the nations best Run Offense in Rice, where they held the Owls to just 10 pts and 77 yards below their season average per game on the ground...while they put up a solid 35 pts and totalled over 350 yards on Offense in the win...That solid win last week again continues Nevada's strong home field play, which is something that their new HC Ault is making a priority to continue...
Situational Edge for Nevada: Sense of Urgency for the WolfPack and loss of motivation for the Hurricanes.
Last weeks win by Nevada, give this team a new life and still keeps them eligible for a possible Bowl bid which they are definantly feeling a sense of urgency to try and obtain....These next 3 opponents is where Nevada cannot let one get by as they will then close out the season at Fresno and then with Boise St at home....That win over Rice last week was huge for this teams confidence, which suffered through 3 straight grueling defeats on the road...Now it is time for them to get back into the grove with their next two home games against very beatable opponents.
The Golden Hurricane's, on the other hand, must still be simply reeling after they laided it all on the line, playing their best football of the season, taking nationally ranked Boise St to the limits all game long, only to lose it all in the end on a FG with just 3 seconds left in regulation....That game would of made Tulsa's season, and they surely played that game as such giving all they had....Because of the loss, and the way that Tulsa loss that one, I have to expect that they will still be suffering from that heartbreaking defeat...and that it wont be so easy for them to be able to get back up for another league contest, especially one being played on the road, where they know they struggle.....Nevada off a big win at home last week gives them much needed confidence...While Tulsa's emotional loss at home last week, should take away any motivation, focus, or energy they have left for the season....I wouldnt be surprised if this team, after that loss have simply started packing it up for the year.....Their hope to return to a Bowl game this year is all but gone....while Nevada's Bowl hopes are still alive and kicking....Nevada definately will have the situational edges, focus, and motivation, on their side today..
Other Stats, Trends, and Info....
-Tulsa is 19-36 (35%) since 1992 after 2 or more consecutive SU losses..
-Nevada has a week off following this game...
-Tulsa is just 4-13 ATS (24%) in its last 17 games vs good rushing teams.
-Tulsa us 10-53-3 ATS when lose SU.
-Nevada is 5-0 ATS in 2nd of BB home games.
-Nevada is 16-2 ATS when win SU.
*Poor special teams play, by Tulsa's Punting Unit....Tulsa punter is currently ranked last in the WAC averaging just 31 ypp average.
Bottom line for me here, is Nevada seems to be renewed by their win over Rice last week...while I think Tulsa will come in completely flat as a result of that loss to Boise St....Nevada has the home field advantage and does its best ball playing at home....While Tulsa has flat out struggled to put it together on the road this year...Nevada's Offense has to much fire power for this boring low octane Tulsa squad to keep up with (only averaging 21 pt per game...2nd lowest in the WAC)...Plus, this line is also low enough for me to feel very confident backing the WolfPack today at home....Play Nevada as a BIG GAME PLAY--WAC GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....GL and Lets Go Get Em!...ALOHA CC.
Nevada -3
-Wow, what a difference a year makes...Last year, this Tulsa team was riding high, playing solid ball, winning 8 games, which got them into their first Bowl Game since 1991....Now one year later, and after 6 weeks on the gridiron, and they are still trying to get their first win over a Div 1 A opponent....WTF?....Well, I said it earlier this Tulsa team is a one year trick Phony who was completely exposed for being weak by GT squad that blew them out in the Humanitarian Bowl by 42 pts...Tulsa returns 17 starters this year, but this team is not very good, and this years tougher non-conf schedule, unlike last years, to start the season, is continuing to show everyone just how overrated they really are...In this game today, I dont see them getting that elusive first win over a Div 1 A opponent in Nevada...and after it is all said and done...they will leave here with another humiliating loss...Below are some of the Keys to why I feel Nevada will be able to control this game from start to finish....resulting in another solid win...
Key Factor #1: Nevada's strength on Offense, its Running Game, vs Tulsa's weakness on Defense and their inability to stop anyone on the ground...
Nevada's running game is currently ranked 4th in the WAC averaging 161.9 yards per game and has scored 15 TDs so far this year....One of the main weapons for the Wolfpack the past couple of years have been the solid running of RB Kretschmer (All WAC)...and even though he has not been used as much as he has been in the past seasons, due to more emphasis being placed on the passing game, he has still has been solid and is the WAC's second leading rusher this year, only behind La Tech's Moats....Kretschmer this year has gained 636 yards and averaged a solid 5.0 ypc...But, Kretschmer also has some solid help in the backfield in his backups Mitchell 4.5 ypc and Carter averaging 6.3 ypc....
Today, I expect that Kretschmer and Co. will be used as the primary attack on Offensive, as the Golden Hurricane's weakness this year on Defense has been their inability to stop anyone's running game...This year, the Golden Hurricanes are currently ranked 7th against the run in the WAC, and giving up a whopping 205 yards per a game average on the ground...On the road this year, they have not fared any better as each game on the road played has seen their opponents ypc increase considerably...at Kansas they gave up 112 yards on the ground and 3.1 ypc.....at Ok St they gave up 295 yards running and 5.1 ypc....then on their most recent road game at Hawaii (Worst WAC Run Offense averaging at the time only 17 yards rushing per game)...they gave up 128 yards on 23 carries and 5.6 ypc...This simply not good news for this Tulsa Run Defense who are on the road again, but now will have to face possibly the most talented RB they will face all year in Kretschmer...
In todays game, I am expecting Kretschmer and Mitchell to have an easier time running the ball vs Tulsa, who doesnt have such a stingent Run Def as Rice has...Also, I feel that Nevada's running game should be able to pick apart Tulsa's 3-3-5 Defense just like Boise St did last week, rushing for over 250 yards and 4.7 ypc....A more solid sign for the Wolfpack Run Offense though, was their ability to run for almost 200 yards and 4 TDs against Rice's top ranked run stuffing unit that has only allowed 120 yards per a game on the ground all year...
Key Factor #2: Tulsa's lack of an effective pass rush...vs Nevada's Air Wolf Attack..
Last years weakness on Defense for Tulsa, was in its inbility to effective rush the passer....and so far this year, this problem seems to have simply continued to hurt their Defenses ability to also stop the run.....So far this year...Tulsa has only been able to record 3 sacks in their 6 games ( 2 vs Kansas and 1 vs Navy)....Nevada's O-Line, on the other hand, has given up a lot of sacks early on in the year, but in their last 3 games they have tightened up their play and only allowed 3 sacks...This is also a result of them utilizing the running game more in the mix as well....Tulsa, wont find it any easier with their 3-3-5 Defense to effectively stop Nevada's running game or effectively be able to rush the passer and this will put to much pressure on their secondary, which now must go up against the nations 10th ranked passing attack.....
Without being able to stop Nevada's Kretschmer...Tulsa wont have a chance at effectively pressuring Nevada's QB Rowe...and this should lead to Nevada to move the ball at will against Tulsa's Defense today....Nevada's Passing Offense is currently averaging 254.4 ypg through the air this year...and Tulsa will have its work cut out for them today facing the WAC's #1 ranked Pass Offense and the #3 passing QB in Rowe....This will be straight weeks that Tulsa's Defense will be up against the Conferences Best Offenses...Hawaii, Boise St, and now Nevada....
Key Factor #3: Nevada's Air Wolf Attack...
Currently ranked 10th in the land in Passing Offense....and number #1 in the Conf in Passing Offense....QB Rowe, will gets the nod take over complete control of the Offense, after several weeks of sharing duties with other QBs...This should help to provide this already potent Offense they possess a lot more stability and continuity....something they were lacking by using the revolving QBs system....QB Rowe is solid and he currently is ranked as the WACs third leading passer with over 1300 yards passing on the year so far...Todays, effective running of Kretschmer and Mitchell should help to open up the passing game and that should result in a lot of yards leading to a lot of points for this already high scoring Offense at home....
Key Factor #4: Nevada playing this one at home...
These two teams simply remind me of my Hawaii Warriors....Good at home, but shitty as hell on the road....Tulsa this year is currently 0-3 on the road...where they have averaged just 13 pts per game, while allowing its opponents to average 34 pts per a game.....Nevada, on the other hand, is currently 3-0 at home and has outscored its opponents by a combined 132-30....Their most impressive win this season came in last weeks home game vs the nations best Run Offense in Rice, where they held the Owls to just 10 pts and 77 yards below their season average per game on the ground...while they put up a solid 35 pts and totalled over 350 yards on Offense in the win...That solid win last week again continues Nevada's strong home field play, which is something that their new HC Ault is making a priority to continue...
Situational Edge for Nevada: Sense of Urgency for the WolfPack and loss of motivation for the Hurricanes.
Last weeks win by Nevada, give this team a new life and still keeps them eligible for a possible Bowl bid which they are definantly feeling a sense of urgency to try and obtain....These next 3 opponents is where Nevada cannot let one get by as they will then close out the season at Fresno and then with Boise St at home....That win over Rice last week was huge for this teams confidence, which suffered through 3 straight grueling defeats on the road...Now it is time for them to get back into the grove with their next two home games against very beatable opponents.
The Golden Hurricane's, on the other hand, must still be simply reeling after they laided it all on the line, playing their best football of the season, taking nationally ranked Boise St to the limits all game long, only to lose it all in the end on a FG with just 3 seconds left in regulation....That game would of made Tulsa's season, and they surely played that game as such giving all they had....Because of the loss, and the way that Tulsa loss that one, I have to expect that they will still be suffering from that heartbreaking defeat...and that it wont be so easy for them to be able to get back up for another league contest, especially one being played on the road, where they know they struggle.....Nevada off a big win at home last week gives them much needed confidence...While Tulsa's emotional loss at home last week, should take away any motivation, focus, or energy they have left for the season....I wouldnt be surprised if this team, after that loss have simply started packing it up for the year.....Their hope to return to a Bowl game this year is all but gone....while Nevada's Bowl hopes are still alive and kicking....Nevada definately will have the situational edges, focus, and motivation, on their side today..
Other Stats, Trends, and Info....
-Tulsa is 19-36 (35%) since 1992 after 2 or more consecutive SU losses..
-Nevada has a week off following this game...
-Tulsa is just 4-13 ATS (24%) in its last 17 games vs good rushing teams.
-Tulsa us 10-53-3 ATS when lose SU.
-Nevada is 5-0 ATS in 2nd of BB home games.
-Nevada is 16-2 ATS when win SU.
*Poor special teams play, by Tulsa's Punting Unit....Tulsa punter is currently ranked last in the WAC averaging just 31 ypp average.
Bottom line for me here, is Nevada seems to be renewed by their win over Rice last week...while I think Tulsa will come in completely flat as a result of that loss to Boise St....Nevada has the home field advantage and does its best ball playing at home....While Tulsa has flat out struggled to put it together on the road this year...Nevada's Offense has to much fire power for this boring low octane Tulsa squad to keep up with (only averaging 21 pt per game...2nd lowest in the WAC)...Plus, this line is also low enough for me to feel very confident backing the WolfPack today at home....Play Nevada as a BIG GAME PLAY--WAC GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....GL and Lets Go Get Em!...ALOHA CC.
truelyhandicapping said:chasing is never a good thing.
hope it works out for you
Not chasing plays...making up for time lost plays....Been so busy capping these **** out today....I dont know, my brain was working in slow mo today....Plus, these are only small plays for me....nothing to extreme....Cant risk to much on 2nd HF plays...not really my specialty like others here.....
i usually take a beating on those 1h and 2h plays, just haven't figured them out.
well i don't spend any time on them, i'm sure there is a science to it, i just guess pretty much.
its not like basketball, that seems pretty easy.
i know you are handicapper captain, and not telling you what to do, but i handicapped for 12 years and always took a bath it seemed like, every winning year followed 2 losing.
the system thing is something you really should look into.
i spend no time racking my brain at all, i just punch in some numbers and run with it.
best of luck tomorrow.
i have sjst tonight, so hawaii is a gauranteed winner.
well i don't spend any time on them, i'm sure there is a science to it, i just guess pretty much.
its not like basketball, that seems pretty easy.
i know you are handicapper captain, and not telling you what to do, but i handicapped for 12 years and always took a bath it seemed like, every winning year followed 2 losing.
the system thing is something you really should look into.
i spend no time racking my brain at all, i just punch in some numbers and run with it.
best of luck tomorrow.
i have sjst tonight, so hawaii is a gauranteed winner.
